Some projections have thrown up the likelihood of a presidential run-off election in the 2023 presidential election for the first time in the history of Nigerian election. This is because of the emergence of four formidable front-liners for the election, in an exercise that has hitherto been a two man race. It has become so rife that even INEC, for the first time, said they have ordered for extra ballot papers in preparation for a likely run-off election.

But while the supporters of each candidate will give you a thousand and one reasons why their candidate will win at first ballot, the likelihood of a run-off should not be ruled out.

What The Law Says About Who Should Make It To A Run-off.

The constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria already envisaged the likelihood of a presidential runoff election and made provision for such. It states that in the eventuality that there many presidential candidates in a presidential election and none of them secures the constitutional provision to be declared victorious at first ballot, the candidate with the highest number of votes cast, will go into a runoff election with the candidate who won the most number of states.

Now, with that constitutional provision in mind, which candidate do you see winning the highest number of votes cast and which do you see winning the highest number of states?

My Projection

With Atiku seeming to have the masses of the north singing his name, and considering that over the time, the north records the highest voter turnout, I’m projecting Atiku to win the Simple Majority votes. But it is also tricky here because if Atiku fails to get the votes he’s hoping to get from the south and those states throw their weight behind Peter Obi, Obi might likely flip that position and get the simple majority and only fall short of spread.

On who wins the most states…. Now, this is tough one. But let’s suppose Atiku wins simple majority due to millions of northern votes and the struggle for who won the most states is between Obi and Tinubu …

Now, every pundit, including opponents, agrees that Peter Obi will win Southeast and Southsouth. That’s 11 states. Similarly, oppositions have conceded Plateau, Benue and Abuja to him. And that gives you 14 states; this is what is practical, empirical, factual, verifiable and demonstrable. But if you permit me to join those who claim Peter Obi will flip Lagos, then you 15 states for Obi.

On Tinubu, he’s likely going to win all of Southwest states. That’s 6 states. Now, add Kwara and Kogi, due to affinity with the Yoruba, and Borno and Yobe, due to Kashim Shettima, that’s 4 states plus 6, which makes it 10 states. Again, in the Northwest, people have been saying Tinubu will win Zamfara due to Mattawale’s dedication to his campaign, which will make it 11 states. Some of his supporters have also argued that he is also likely to win Gombe due to Governor Yahaya Inuwa’s vigorous campaign for him. So let’s add Gombe, and you have 12 states. Or should we add Nasarawa because Governor Sule is also sincere with his campaign for Tinubu and APC chairman is from there? Then you have 13 states. This is what is factual, practical and empirical for Tinubu, but he has a lot of probables surrounding him.

Note: If Obi succeeds in winning Lagos as some are projecting, then, that’s minus one for Tinubu which will reduce him to 12 states.

Likely Surprises…

Before I conclude, I make due to point out some of the likely surprises that the presidential election might spring.

In Nasarawa…. Peter Obi might end up winning this state when you consider that there is a demography of about 55% Muslims and 45% Christians (some have said they are 50/50, but I don’t think I agree with that). Now, if the Christians end up voting in bloc for Peter Obi and the Muslims split their votes between Tinubu and Atiku, what do you think will happen?

In Kaduna…. Even residents of Kaduna are attesting to the fact of the growing popularity of Labour Party in the state, maybe due to Datti. Add that to Southern Kaduna voters. Now, if the Muslims split their votes between Atiku and Tinubu, and Southern Kaduna voters vote in bloc for Peter Obi, with some little fraction of Muslim votes due to Datti, what does that tell you?

Then Taraba…. Taraba has always followed the voting pattern of the south (southeast and Southsouth ) since 1999. People mistake this for loyalty to PDP but I think it’s wrong because if you argue they are loyal to PDP then you can equally argue that PDP will still win Southeast because the region has voted PDP since 1999. So, in essence, Obi might just spring a surprise and win this state. But that’s speculative.

My Prediction

Lastly, I’m predicting that if Atiku and Obi make it to the runoff, then Obi will win due to southern solidarity because more Southwest voters are likely going to be persuaded to vote Obi.

If Obi and Tinubu advance to the runoff, Tinubu will win in the morning because core northern voters would rather vote a yam as Nigerian president than vote an Igbo man. Obi should avoid going into a runoff with Tinubu.

But if Atiku and Tinubu advance to runoff, then Atiku wins because Southsouth and Southeast will easily vote Atiku.

So, there you have it. What do you disagree with in my projections and which two candidates do you see making the runoff?

Penguin is a bird of reason!!!

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

Obi vs Atiku runoff

Like for Obi share for Atiku

Mynd44:

....

This one realized that he wrote nonsense while trying to counter Penguin2. He had to delete his post.

All these agbado BATstards.

Peter Obi supporters are finally realizing that their candidate has not realistic path to win the election on the first ballot. They are now toying with the idea of a possible second ballot.

Sadly, there will be no second ballot. Tinubu will win on the first ballot. In the unlikely event of a clear winner not emerging from the first ballot, Peter Obi will not finish in the top two so he won’t even be on the second ballot.

Your deluded projection that Tinubu will win only 10 states is just like an Ipob member making himself happy that a President Trump will make Biafra a reality. It’s absolute nonsense. For clarity, Tinubu will win all the SW states, Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Nasarawa in north central, Bornu, Yobe and Gombe in north east, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara and Kebbi in north west. He will also get over 25% of total vote cast in Edo, Imo, Ebonyi, Abia, Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Bauchi, Sokoto, Jigawa and Adamawa.

And yes, Atiku is going to win easily if there is a second ballot irrespective of who is the opponent. APC voters in SW and all over the country will rather support Atiku instead of the bigoted Peter Obi. Head or tail, Peter Obi will not be president.

There won't be any yeye run off. Pandora Obituary will win with landslide.

With obasanjo's letter, the whole SW and 19 northern states are already in pandora Obituary's back pocket.

… .

Obi will win at first ballot. The voter turnout in NW and NE will be reduced. Hardship is already resetting people's brain there. Disillusion is setting in. There is this silent and mutual agreement that only an Igbo man will leapfrog this country to greatness. A lot of folks will give Obi a chance in the north. The voter turnout in the SE and SS will be exceedingly high. I have high confidence that Obi will win at first ballot. 25% is also easy for Obi. 11 states in SS and SE is in the bag. 6 states in SW making it 17. 4 in NC making it 21. 2 in NE (taraba and Adamawa) and kaduna making it 24 states.

seunmsg:
Peter Obi supporters are finally realizing that their candidate has not realistic path to win the election on the first ballot. They are now toying with the idea of a possible second ballot.

Sadly, there will be no second ballot. Tinubu will win on the first ballot. In the unlikely event of a clear winner not emerging from the first ballot, Peter Obi will not finish in the top two so he won’t even be on the second ballot.

Your deluded projection that Tinubu will win only 10 states is just like an Ipob member making himself happy that a President Trump will make Biafra a reality. It’s absolute nonsense. For clarity, Tinubu will win all the SW states, Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Nasarawa in north central, Bornu, Yobe and Gombe in north east, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara and Kebbi in north west. He will also get over 25% of total vote cast in Edo, Imo, Ebonyi, Abia, Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Bauchi, Sokoto, Jigawa and Adamawa.

And yes, Atiku is going to win easily if there is a second ballot irrespective of who is the opponent. APC voters in SW and all over the country will rather support Atiku instead of the bigoted Peter Obi. Head or tail, Peter Obi will not be president.

So funny of you to think that Tinubu will get up to 10% of votes cast in any Southeast state. I don’t know about Southsouth, but you see southeast, forget it.

Again, you are overestimating Tinubu in Northwest, but carry on.

Meanwhile, Obi will win at first ballot.

onez:
Obi will win at first ballot. The voter turnout in NW and NE will be reduced. Hardship is already resetting people's brain there. Disillusion is setting in. There is this silent and mutual agreement that only an Igbo man will leapfrog this country to greatness. A lot of folks will give Obi a chance in the north. The voter turnout in the SE and SS will be exceedingly high. I have high confidence that Obi will win at first ballot. 25% is also easy for Obi. 11 states in SS and SE is in the bag. 6 states in SW making it 17. 4 in NC making it 21. 2 in NE (taraba and Adamawa) and kaduna making it 24 states.

Realistic projections but Tinubu BATstards will disagree.

If Obi wins, it is a miracle though I am voting for him.

Obi will surely be in the run off. His greatest challenge is the rivalry between him and his loins especially the scared corrupt folks.

seunmsg:
Peter Obi supporters are finally realizing that their candidate has not realistic path to win the election on the first ballot. They are now toying with the idea of a possible second ballot.

Sadly, there will be no second ballot. Tinubu will win on the first ballot. In the unlikely event of a clear winner not emerging from the first ballot, Peter Obi will not finish in the top two so he won’t even be on the second ballot.

Your deluded projection that Tinubu will win only 10 states is just like an Ipob member making himself happy that a President Trump will make Biafra a reality. It’s absolute nonsense. For clarity, Tinubu will win all the SW states, Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Nasarawa in north central, Bornu, Yobe and Gombe in north east, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara and Kebbi in north west. He will also get over 25% of total vote cast in Edo, Imo, Ebonyi, Abia, Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Bauchi, Sokoto, Jigawa and Adamawa.

And yes, Atiku is going to win easily if there is a second ballot irrespective of who is the opponent. APC voters in SW and all over the country will rather support Atiku instead of the bigoted Peter Obi. Head or tail, Peter Obi will not be president.

This is agbado media wonderland because your analysis is based on the premise that Tinubu inherits Buhari's block votes. Also while immersed in your wonderland slumber you erroneously attributed 25% spread to Tinubu in Eastern states like Abia and South south states like Rivers.

Wake up bruh.

onez:
Obi will win at first ballot. The voter turnout in NW and NE will be reduced. Hardship is already resetting people's brain there. Disillusion is setting in. There is this silent and mutual agreement that only an Igbo man will leapfrog this country to greatness. A lot of folks will give Obi a chance in the north. The voter turnout in the SE and SS will be exceedingly high. I have high confidence that Obi will win at first ballot. 25% is also easy for Obi. 11 states in SS and SE is in the bag. 6 states in SW making it 17. 4 in NC making it 21. 2 in NE (taraba and Adamawa) and kaduna making it 24 states.

Agreed. The urchins make it sound like everyone hates easterners but that's a pure lie. There's nothing they don't try to concoct with their agbado media.

Mynd44:
… .

Why did you delete your comment after accusing me of trying to misinform the public, sir?

Or did you realize you were the one who wanted to misinform the public?

I regret not quoting you before going to look for screenshots of facts I would use to counter your accusations against me.

At your stage on Nairaland, you are supposed to know those who let emotions rule their judgment through their support for incapable and frail candidates, and practical and reasonable people on Nairaland who are always logical and practical irrespective of whether it favours them or not.

Everything I wrote up there are facts as stated by law except for those that are my personal opinions which I stated so.

The constitution says that the person with simple majority (without getting spread) will go into a runoff with the candidate who won the most states (not spread).

Let’s not misinform the public.

Ngiyaponga!

NothingDoMe:
This is agbado media wonderland because your analysis is based on the premise that Tinubu inherits Buhari's block votes. Also while immersed in your wonderland slumber you erroneously attributed 25% spread to Tinubu in Eastern states like Abia and South West states like Rivers.

Wake up bruh.

Tinubu will get 25% or more in Ebonyi, Imo and Abia. With the support of Wike, he will also get it in Rivers.

In the south south, APC always get 25% or more in Edo state. In Delta, APC got over 30% in 2019. Same will happen in 2023. Cross River is now an APC so Tinubu will get nothing less than 35% there. APC won Bayelsa in the last governorship election. Tinubu will definitely get over 30% in Bayelsa and I don’t even think Peter Obi will even win the state.

Millimann:

This one realized that he wrote nonsense while trying to counter Penguin2. He had to delete his post.

All these agbado BATstards.

Oh!

You saw it, right?

I’m so mad at myself for not quoting him fast enough before he deleted what he wrote.

I wanted to go get screenshots from pages of the constitution to use and counter him only to come back and see that he has deleted his comment.

E pain me…

Penguin2:


So funny of you to think that Tinubu will get up to 10% of votes cast in any Southeast state. I don’t know about Southsouth, but you see southeast, forget it.

Again, you are overestimating Tinubu in Northwest, but carry on.

Meanwhile, Obi will win at first ballot.

What your believe doesn’t matter. Buhari got over 25% in Ebonyi, Abia and Imo in 2019. These states will improve their figures in 2023.

seunmsg:
Peter Obi supporters are finally realizing that their candidate has not realistic path to win the election on the first ballot. They are now toying with the idea of a possible second ballot.

Sadly, there will be no second ballot. Tinubu will win on the first ballot. In the unlikely event of a clear winner not emerging from the first ballot, Peter Obi will not finish in the top two so he won’t even be on the second ballot.

Your deluded projection that Tinubu will win only 10 states is just like an Ipob member making himself happy that a President Trump will make Biafra a reality. It’s absolute nonsense. For clarity, Tinubu will win all the SW states, Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Nasarawa in north central, Bornu, Yobe and Gombe in north east, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Zamfara and Kebbi in north west. He will also get over 25% of total vote cast in Edo, Imo, Ebonyi, Abia, Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Bauchi, Sokoto, Jigawa and Adamawa.

And yes, Atiku is going to win easily if there is a second ballot irrespective of who is the opponent. APC voters in SW and all over the country will rather support Atiku instead of the bigoted Peter Obi. Head or tail, Peter Obi will not be president.

u are a terrible bigot n I pray God not to meet ur type in my life......disgusting!!!

seunmsg:


Tinubu will get 25% or more in Ebonyi, Imo and Abia. With the support of Wike, he will also get it in Rivers.

In the south south, APC always get 25% or more in Edo state. In Delta, APC got over 30% in 2019. Same will happen in 2023. Cross River is now an APC so Tinubu will get nothing less than 35% there. APC won Bayelsa in the last governorship election. Tinubu will definitely get over 30% in Bayelsa and I don’t even think Peter Obi will even win the state.

This is known as the fallacy of generalization.

Only after this elections can you have better projections because you now have an Igbo candidate as a major contender. You don't have Buhari at the polls. You still have Atiku and finally you have a cognitively impaired Tinubu.

This upcoming election will create a new foundation for future elections projections.

Factual.
Not bias.
Realistic expectations but I must say that you're too nice to BAT.

The problem with the BATist is like their oga, they don't believe in statistics or probability... they'll counter you with unrealistic imagination base on the past performance of Buhari or call you IPOB..

see mod disgracing himself above

Peter Obi will make the run off with Simon Ekpa in IPOBLAND.

Penguin2:


Why did you delete your comment after accusing me of trying to misinform the public, sir?

Or did you realize you were the one who wanted to misinform the public?

I regret not quoting you before going to look for screenshots of facts I would use to counter your accusations against me.

At your stage on Nairaland, you are supposed to know those who let emotions rule their judgment through their support for incapable and frail candidates, and practical and reasonable people on Nairaland who are always logical and practical irrespective of whether it favours them or not.

Everything I wrote up there are facts as stated by law except for those that are my personal opinions which I stated so.

The constitution says that the person with simple majority (without getting spread) will go into a runoff with the candidate who won the most states (not spread).

Let’s not misinform the public.

Ngiyaponga!

You're doing great Penguin the bird of logic and reasoning.

The media will never allowed to be an agent of misinformation and misdirection of the masses in order to gazelle garagara everyone into voting a cognitively impaired candidate.

Penguin2:
Some projections have thrown up the likelihood of a presidential run-off election in the 2023 presidential election for the first time in the history of Nigerian election. This is because of the emergence of four formidable front-liners for the election, in an exercise that has hitherto been a two man race. It has become so rife that even INEC, for the first time, said they have ordered for extra ballot papers in preparation for a likely run-off election.

But while the supporters of each candidate will give you a thousand and one reasons why their candidate will win at first ballot, the likelihood of a run-off should not be ruled out.

What The Law Says About Who Should Make It To A Run-off.

The constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria already envisaged the likelihood of a presidential runoff election and made provision for such. It states that in the eventuality that there many presidential candidates in a presidential election and none of them secures the constitutional provision to be declared victorious at first ballot, the candidate with the highest number of votes cast, will go into a runoff election with the candidate who won the most number of states.

Now, with that constitutional provision in mind, which candidate do you see winning the highest number of votes cast and which do you see winning the highest number of states?

My Projection

With Atiku seeming to have the masses of the north singing his name, and considering that over the time, the north records the highest voter turnout, I’m projecting Atiku to win the Simple Majority votes. But it is also tricky here because if Atiku fails to get the votes he’s hoping to get from the south and those states throw their weight behind Peter Obi, Obi might likely flip that position and get the simple majority and only fall short of spread.

On who wins the most states…. Now, this is tough one. But let’s suppose Atiku wins simple majority due to millions of northern votes and the struggle for who won the most states is between Obi and Tinubu …

Now, every pundit, including opponents, agrees that Peter Obi will win Southeast and Southsouth. That’s 11 states. Similarly, oppositions have conceded Plateau, Benue and Abuja to him. And that gives you 14 states; this is what is practical, empirical, factual, verifiable and demonstrable. But if you permit me to join those who claim Peter Obi will flip Lagos, then you 15 states for Obi.

On Tinubu, he’s likely going to win all of Southwest states. That’s 6 states. Now, add Kwara and Kogi, due to affinity with the Yoruba, and Borno and Yobe, due to Kashim Shettima, that’s 4 states plus 6, which makes it 10 states. Again, in the Northwest, people have been saying Tinubu will win Zamfara due to Mattawale’s dedication to his campaign, which will make it 11 states. Some of his supporters have also argued that he is also likely to win Gombe due to Governor Yahaya Inuwa’s vigorous campaign for him. So let’s add Gombe, and you have 12 states. Or should we add Nasarawa because Governor Sule is also sincere with his campaign for Tinubu and APC chairman is from there? Then you have 13 states. This is what is factual, practical and empirical for Tinubu, but he has a lot of probables surrounding him.

Note: If Obi succeeds in winning Lagos as some are projecting, then, that’s minus one for Tinubu which will reduce him to 12 states.

Likely Surprises…

Before I conclude, I make due to point out some of the likely surprises that the presidential election might spring.

In Nasarawa…. Peter Obi might end up winning this state when you consider that there is a demography of about 55% Muslims and 45% Christians (some have said they are 50/50, but I don’t think I agree with that). Now, if the Christians end up voting in bloc for Peter Obi and the Muslims split their votes between Tinubu and Atiku, what do you think will happen?

In Kaduna…. Even residents of Kaduna are attesting to the fact of the growing popularity of Labour Party in the state, maybe due to Datti. Add that to Southern Kaduna voters. Now, if the Muslims split their votes between Atiku and Tinubu, and Southern Kaduna voters vote in bloc for Peter Obi, with some little fraction of Muslim votes due to Datti, what does that tell you?

Then Taraba…. Taraba has always followed the voting pattern of the south (southeast and Southsouth ) since 1999. People mistake this for loyalty to PDP but I think it’s wrong because if you argue they are loyal to PDP then you can equally argue that PDP will still win Southeast because the region has voted PDP since 1999. So, in essence, Obi might just spring a surprise and win this state. But that’s speculative.

My Prediction

Lastly, I’m predicting that if Atiku and Obi make it to the runoff, then Obi will win due to southern solidarity because more Southwest voters are likely going to be persuaded to vote Obi.

If Obi and Tinubu advance to the runoff, Tinubu will win in the morning because core northern voters would rather vote a yam as Nigerian president than vote an Igbo man. Obi should avoid going into a runoff with Tinubu.

But if Atiku and Tinubu advance to runoff, then Atiku wins because Southsouth and Southeast will easily vote Atiku.

So, there you have it. What do you disagree with in my projections and which two candidates do you see making the runoff?

Penguin is a bird of reason!!!

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

Very detailed analysis, all these scenarios are likely. But I think PDP/NNPP will make a deal with Obi if they don't make the rerun. This is because they can get a better deal with LP, unlike APC with heavyweight politicians.

Another point is that a rerun will likely happen after the governorship elections and Federal House of assembly. So commitment by elected politicians to major parties will drop.

Chuksaluta:


Very detailed analysis, all these scenarios are likely. But I think PDP will make a deal with Obi if they don't make the rerun.

Another point is that a rerun will likely happen after the governorship elections. So a lot of deals by politicians.

100%. The deals are the unpredictable components of elections. Wike didn't see it coming at all during PDP primaries. Shocked him to his bones.

I'm neither an igbo nor am I a southerner, but truth be told, obi Will surely be in the run-off if at all there Will be one. The probability of who Will go into the run off Will be on ariku, tinubu and kwankwaso.obi's greatest problem should be second ballot which I don't see him winning

Penguin2:
Some projections have thrown up the likelihood of a presidential run-off election in the 2023 presidential election for the first time in the history of Nigerian election. This is because of the emergence of four formidable front-liners for the election, in an exercise that has hitherto been a two man race. It has become so rife that even INEC, for the first time, said they have ordered for extra ballot papers in preparation for a likely run-off election.

But while the supporters of each candidate will give you a thousand and one reasons why their candidate will win at first ballot, the likelihood of a run-off should not be ruled out.

What The Law Says About Who Should Make It To A Run-off.

The constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria already envisaged the likelihood of a presidential runoff election and made provision for such. It states that in the eventuality that there many presidential candidates in a presidential election and none of them secures the constitutional provision to be declared victorious at first ballot, the candidate with the highest number of votes cast, will go into a runoff election with the candidate who won the most number of states.

Now, with that constitutional provision in mind, which candidate do you see winning the highest number of votes cast and which do you see winning the highest number of states?

My Projection

With Atiku seeming to have the masses of the north singing his name, and considering that over the time, the north records the highest voter turnout, I’m projecting Atiku to win the Simple Majority votes. But it is also tricky here because if Atiku fails to get the votes he’s hoping to get from the south and those states throw their weight behind Peter Obi, Obi might likely flip that position and get the simple majority and only fall short of spread.

On who wins the most states…. Now, this is tough one. But let’s suppose Atiku wins simple majority due to millions of northern votes and the struggle for who won the most states is between Obi and Tinubu …

Now, every pundit, including opponents, agrees that Peter Obi will win Southeast and Southsouth. That’s 11 states. Similarly, oppositions have conceded Plateau, Benue and Abuja to him. And that gives you 14 states; this is what is practical, empirical, factual, verifiable and demonstrable. But if you permit me to join those who claim Peter Obi will flip Lagos, then you 15 states for Obi.

On Tinubu, he’s likely going to win all of Southwest states. That’s 6 states. Now, add Kwara and Kogi, due to affinity with the Yoruba, and Borno and Yobe, due to Kashim Shettima, that’s 4 states plus 6, which makes it 10 states. Again, in the Northwest, people have been saying Tinubu will win Zamfara due to Mattawale’s dedication to his campaign, which will make it 11 states. Some of his supporters have also argued that he is also likely to win Gombe due to Governor Yahaya Inuwa’s vigorous campaign for him. So let’s add Gombe, and you have 12 states. Or should we add Nasarawa because Governor Sule is also sincere with his campaign for Tinubu and APC chairman is from there? Then you have 13 states. This is what is factual, practical and empirical for Tinubu, but he has a lot of probables surrounding him.

Note: If Obi succeeds in winning Lagos as some are projecting, then, that’s minus one for Tinubu which will reduce him to 12 states.

Likely Surprises…

Before I conclude, I make due to point out some of the likely surprises that the presidential election might spring.

In Nasarawa…. Peter Obi might end up winning this state when you consider that there is a demography of about 55% Muslims and 45% Christians (some have said they are 50/50, but I don’t think I agree with that). Now, if the Christians end up voting in bloc for Peter Obi and the Muslims split their votes between Tinubu and Atiku, what do you think will happen?

In Kaduna…. Even residents of Kaduna are attesting to the fact of the growing popularity of Labour Party in the state, maybe due to Datti. Add that to Southern Kaduna voters. Now, if the Muslims split their votes between Atiku and Tinubu, and Southern Kaduna voters vote in bloc for Peter Obi, with some little fraction of Muslim votes due to Datti, what does that tell you?

Then Taraba…. Taraba has always followed the voting pattern of the south (southeast and Southsouth ) since 1999. People mistake this for loyalty to PDP but I think it’s wrong because if you argue they are loyal to PDP then you can equally argue that PDP will still win Southeast because the region has voted PDP since 1999. So, in essence, Obi might just spring a surprise and win this state. But that’s speculative.

My Prediction

Lastly, I’m predicting that if Atiku and Obi make it to the runoff, then Obi will win due to southern solidarity because more Southwest voters are likely going to be persuaded to vote Obi.

If Obi and Tinubu advance to the runoff, Tinubu will win in the morning because core northern voters would rather vote a yam as Nigerian president than vote an Igbo man. Obi should avoid going into a runoff with Tinubu.

But if Atiku and Tinubu advance to runoff, then Atiku wins because Southsouth and Southeast will easily vote Atiku.

So, there you have it. What do you disagree with in my projections and which two candidates do you see making the runoff?

Penguin is a bird of reason!!!

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

you try if Atiku and obi run off .Atiku will get more votes! All those apc votes in north will move to him to consolidate .

This guys there will not be any runoff in the coming election Tinubu will get 25 in all the northern and Southwestern State Which is 19+6 is already 25 , the only way he will not win is if he did not get majority of the votes .it is the same with Atiku he will get 25 percent in all the northern States and South South states

seunmsg:


Tinubu will get 25% or more in Ebonyi, Imo and Abia. With the support of Wike, he will also get it in Rivers.

In the south south, APC always get 25% or more in Edo state. In Delta, APC got over 30% in 2019. Same will happen in 2023. Cross River is now an APC so Tinubu will get nothing less than 35% there. APC won Bayelsa in the last governorship election. Tinubu will definitely get over 30% in Bayelsa and I don’t even think Peter Obi will even win the state.

Are you serious?

Penguin2:
Some projections have thrown up the likelihood of a presidential run-off election in the 2023 presidential election for the first time in the history of Nigerian election. This is because of the emergence of four formidable front-liners for the election, in an exercise that has hitherto been a two man race. It has become so rife that even INEC, for the first time, said they have ordered for extra ballot papers in preparation for a likely run-off election.

But while the supporters of each candidate will give you a thousand and one reasons why their candidate will win at first ballot, the likelihood of a run-off should not be ruled out.

What The Law Says About Who Should Make It To A Run-off.

The constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria already envisaged the likelihood of a presidential runoff election and made provision for such. It states that in the eventuality that there many presidential candidates in a presidential election and none of them secures the constitutional provision to be declared victorious at first ballot, the candidate with the highest number of votes cast, will go into a runoff election with the candidate who won the most number of states.

Now, with that constitutional provision in mind, which candidate do you see winning the highest number of votes cast and which do you see winning the highest number of states?

My Projection

With Atiku seeming to have the masses of the north singing his name, and considering that over the time, the north records the highest voter turnout, I’m projecting Atiku to win the Simple Majority votes. But it is also tricky here because if Atiku fails to get the votes he’s hoping to get from the south and those states throw their weight behind Peter Obi, Obi might likely flip that position and get the simple majority and only fall short of spread.

On who wins the most states…. Now, this is tough one. But let’s suppose Atiku wins simple majority due to millions of northern votes and the struggle for who won the most states is between Obi and Tinubu …

Now, every pundit, including opponents, agrees that Peter Obi will win Southeast and Southsouth. That’s 11 states. Similarly, oppositions have conceded Plateau, Benue and Abuja to him. And that gives you 14 states; this is what is practical, empirical, factual, verifiable and demonstrable. But if you permit me to join those who claim Peter Obi will flip Lagos, then you 15 states for Obi.

On Tinubu, he’s likely going to win all of Southwest states. That’s 6 states. Now, add Kwara and Kogi, due to affinity with the Yoruba, and Borno and Yobe, due to Kashim Shettima, that’s 4 states plus 6, which makes it 10 states. Again, in the Northwest, people have been saying Tinubu will win Zamfara due to Mattawale’s dedication to his campaign, which will make it 11 states. Some of his supporters have also argued that he is also likely to win Gombe due to Governor Yahaya Inuwa’s vigorous campaign for him. So let’s add Gombe, and you have 12 states. Or should we add Nasarawa because Governor Sule is also sincere with his campaign for Tinubu and APC chairman is from there? Then you have 13 states. This is what is factual, practical and empirical for Tinubu, but he has a lot of probables surrounding him.

Note: If Obi succeeds in winning Lagos as some are projecting, then, that’s minus one for Tinubu which will reduce him to 12 states.

Likely Surprises…

Before I conclude, I make due to point out some of the likely surprises that the presidential election might spring.

In Nasarawa…. Peter Obi might end up winning this state when you consider that there is a demography of about 55% Muslims and 45% Christians (some have said they are 50/50, but I don’t think I agree with that). Now, if the Christians end up voting in bloc for Peter Obi and the Muslims split their votes between Tinubu and Atiku, what do you think will happen?

In Kaduna…. Even residents of Kaduna are attesting to the fact of the growing popularity of Labour Party in the state, maybe due to Datti. Add that to Southern Kaduna voters. Now, if the Muslims split their votes between Atiku and Tinubu, and Southern Kaduna voters vote in bloc for Peter Obi, with some little fraction of Muslim votes due to Datti, what does that tell you?

Then Taraba…. Taraba has always followed the voting pattern of the south (southeast and Southsouth ) since 1999. People mistake this for loyalty to PDP but I think it’s wrong because if you argue they are loyal to PDP then you can equally argue that PDP will still win Southeast because the region has voted PDP since 1999. So, in essence, Obi might just spring a surprise and win this state. But that’s speculative.

My Prediction

Lastly, I’m predicting that if Atiku and Obi make it to the runoff, then Obi will win due to southern solidarity because more Southwest voters are likely going to be persuaded to vote Obi.

If Obi and Tinubu advance to the runoff, Tinubu will win in the morning because core northern voters would rather vote a yam as Nigerian president than vote an Igbo man. Obi should avoid going into a runoff with Tinubu.

But if Atiku and Tinubu advance to runoff, then Atiku wins because Southsouth and Southeast will easily vote Atiku.

So, there you have it. What do you disagree with in my projections and which two candidates do you see making the runoff?

Penguin is a bird of reason!!!

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

We share similar sentiment. I see Obi and Atiki for run off election. Tinubu wouldn't get 25% in 2/3 of states and he wouldn't get simple majority votes. Atiku is likely to get simple majority votes but he would get 25% in two-thirds of the states. Obi and Tinubu are in the same page but i see obi having more votes than Tinubu.
My analysis is based on bantupage and anap polls. If you understand statistics and probably you would reason with me.

seunmsg:


Tinubu will get 25% or more in Ebonyi, Imo and Abia. With the support of Wike, he will also get it in Rivers.

In the south south, APC always get 25% or more in Edo state. In Delta, APC got over 30% in 2019. Same will happen in 2023. Cross River is now an APC so Tinubu will get nothing less than 35% there. APC won Bayelsa in the last governorship election. Tinubu will definitely get over 30% in Bayelsa and I don’t even think Peter Obi will even win the state.

You smoked some weed while typing this right? You expect a mostly dominated christian region to give a M/M ticket 25%. Better change your supplier.

onez:
Obi will win at first ballot. The voter turnout in NW and NE will be reduced. Hardship is already resetting people's brain there. Disillusion is setting in. There is this silent and mutual agreement that only an Igbo man will leapfrog this country to greatness. A lot of folks will give Obi a chance in the north. The voter turnout in the SE and SS will be exceedingly high. I have high confidence that Obi will win at first ballot. 25% is also easy for Obi. 11 states in SS and SE is in the bag. 6 states in SW making it 17. 4 in NC making it 21. 2 in NE (taraba and Adamawa) and kaduna making it 24 states.

Do not underestimate Kebbi state my brother! There is a huge number of Christians and moderate Muslims in that state. Obi will get his 25% in Kebbi. Take this to the bank.

seunmsg:


Tinubu will get 25% or more in Ebonyi, Imo and Abia. With the support of Wike, he will also get it in Rivers.

In the south south, APC always get 25% or more in Edo state. In Delta, APC got over 30% in 2019. Same will happen in 2023. Cross River is now an APC so Tinubu will get nothing less than 35% there. APC won Bayelsa in the last governorship election. Tinubu will definitely get over 30% in Bayelsa and I don’t even think Peter Obi will even win the state.

Tinubu won't get 10% with Muslim Muslim ticket when Obi is on the ballot, stop deceiving yourself.The Governors you are hoping on can't give Tinubu 25%