The love is real, no renting of crowd.

Nsukka deja nu oooo
Ekelee m oo

SmartPolician:
Peter Obi represents the fact that Nigeria can still be saved. May God help him succeed!

God bless you for this post ✅�

With this I’m confident, Obi has lost this election. My fellow Obidients. If u agree pls hit like

NaughtyBrainiac:
Good one!

I implore everyone to accept the outcome of the Presidential Elections in g ood fate

Some people should not start shouting Biafra this Biafra that, Ipob this Ipob that if their candidate eventually loses

We are not mediocre like you lots. If that shaky shaky man wins and start destroying the ZOO from where the dullard of daura stopped Biafra will become our solace. The difference between Igbos and the rest is that Igbos are meant to be eagles and shouldn't share geographical area with other birds. We can't settle for less until the ZOO is restored to a human habitat.

We don't hate the ZOO but we hate bad governance and animals like you who support their oppressors.

Igbo support for Obi has nothing tribal in it. If Rochas is contesting i am very sure he won't win his pulling unit, but if Donald Duke is contesting Igbos will gladly queue behind him.

You prefer a dead walking man who is demented to be president to rub it on Igbos' faces even if the ZOO will sink lower that he made it sink alongside Buhari.

The good thing is that Igbos are the most prepared race for any economic hardship in the ZOO. Whatever happen come 2023 Igbos will never suffer it the most in the damnable ZOO.

I course the day i was created in the same geographical area with low life animals

Alezy:
This is why Inec us projecting a rerun. From the look of things, everybody will win their zones. It's just unfortunate for Atiku cos kwankwaso will divide the norht with him. And then we have the northern christains and Igbo people.

Whoever middle belt votes massively for will win the election. And as it stands, PO has upper hand there

Nigerians tend to talk out of ignorance without looking at the data. The middle belt has never been an election decider and the most inconsequential zone in Nigeria. Why? because the middle belt vote is always split. Every major party does well in the Middle belt such that whoever wins does not win by much even when there were only 2 main contenders. Go and check the election results for the middle belt going way back to the days of Zik/Awo/balewa/shagari.

If I get 500k votes and you get 450K, yes I won that state but all that state has contributed to my overall victory is 50k votes out of 950k available voters. Do you now understand the inconsequence of marginal states....they are not king makers! Elections are decided by states where you command 80-90% majority. look at 2019 for instance just one relatively small voter state...Yobe wiped out the victory of PDP in ALL the middle belt states.

many of you do not understand elections. Elections are not won by the number of votes you get in a state, they are won by the cumulative difference between your votes and the opponents! if you get 2m votes in a state and I get 1.95 million, your 2m votes do not help you become president especially if despite losing, I have a state where I have 700k votes and you only get 70K.

it really is amazing how naive, ignorant and uninformed Nigerians are about the mathematics of elections especially that elections are basically arithmetic.

in 2019 Atiku won Adamawa with only 38k votes out of a total votes of approx 800k despite 410k people voting for him

In Benue the difference was 9,000 votes (i repeat nine thousand votes) out of a total of 700k votes and 356k Atiku votes...technically Atiku won

in Nassarawa Buhari won by only 6,000 votes,

In kwara Buhari won by 178K, Plateau out of 1m votes PDP only won by 80k votes

and so on and so forth.

Add all the PDp victories in the middle belt and just 1 small state of Yobe wiped out all their gains...why? because Yobe votes were not shared....out of 547k votes in Yobe, 497 went to Buhari and 50k to Atiku, leaving Buhari with a margin of 447k to absorb defeats in other states. the irony is that Yobe has less voters than each of all the middle belt states, yet powerful enough to wipe out whatever happens in a whole region......because the votes are shared!! i hope you understand now why Tinubu won the election the minute Obi left PDp and declared for LP...he shared the votes making it difficult for either himself or PDp to have stronghold states and impossible for either him or PDP to win.

so the key to victory is having states where your votes are not shared. that is why Tinubu will win the election 1st ballot.

Traditionaly stronghold states of PDP like SS/SE will be shared with Obi voters diluting the margin of victory in those states. APC are the only party with their core stronghold states relatively intact, states like Yobe, Borno. if Obi cannot dent APC in the North he is not winning this election, trust me because the states he will win or do well will be marginal. Even in the SE he will contend with PDP. who is contending with APC in states Borno and Yobe?

Dont forget, i said small Yobe state with only 500K votes wiped out PDP's entire gain in the middle belt without even using the bazooka Borno votes.

lease look at the data before you talk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election.


For those who do not understand english, you win a presidential election by adding the difference between you and your opponent in one state and all the other states and whoever is ahead is the winner. so if you are winning states by 20k 8k, 40k when your opponent is winning states by 700k, 900k, 1m....you are not in the race!!! if you get 1m votes in a state and your opponent gets 900k or 1.1m, you are not heading to Aso rock unless you have states that will give you 500k, 700k, 1m difference between you are your opponents. it is not the number of votes you get that matters but the difference!

Obi has no nothern presence so by definition he is out of the race before it starts, his only effect in this race is to make Atiku not win

States cannot be giving your opponents 1m, 1.5m 1.7 m difference and you have no states to deliver that for you and you expect to win. Emotions aside, it is mathematically impossible!

ImmaculateJOE:

And where is Kaduna city located...?

why did you mentioned south in the first place...Kaduna is Kaduna!

Okealaaye:
Nsogbu Nsogbu politics of the Tribe. What did Obi give his people when he was governor? Check it out: written by Anambrarians who felt the edge of Obi's misrule. Na dis kaind porsin Ndigbo wan make president? Tufiakwa -

He Gave us nothing when he was governor, he allocated all the anambra lands to himself and his family, he made his wife a senator and made his son the controller of all the market in Anambra, the whole money collected at the toll gates in Anambra are been remitted to him since he left office. He's been feeding fat from Anambra money since he left office, he's the biggest landlord in the whole of Onitsha and Igbo land in general. He picks all political office holders in anambra and beyond down to councilors, he's been driving bullion vans to his house whenever there is general election.

All these are reasons we will vote him. Do you understand or should I continue?

Sweetplum:
Impressive. Wish Tinubu and Obi could v worked together. Never seen a collabo of Igbo and Yorubas. It's always Igbo and Hausas or Yoruba and Hausas. Yet there was a time during military era that north did north head of state and north vice. Which jazz did the north use on the south?
In all, let LP and APC watch out for Atiku.

Northern vote is one (All sixteen states). Then the south is divided into West, East & South-South.

You understand the advantage the north has over other regions?

casualobserver:
Well done but it is not nsukka or SE voters that will make him president. Let us see his crowd in Katsina, Kano, Maiduguri, Kaduna, Ilorin, Jigawa, Yobe, Kabba, etc. In short anywhere North because crowd yourself all you like in the south especially SE, without Northern votes no presidency for any southern candidate and vice versa no Northerner can win without southern votes!!!

We are not banking on northern votes for him to be president.

Northerners are too timid to buy the idea of Obi presidency, they have been willing tools used by wicked politicians to catapult themselves to power.

Obi doesn't give Shishi but some poor northern almajiri just need #500 to sell their vote, they know nothing about the economic or the problems bedevelling the ZOO, they are not sure of living tomorrow so they just have to eat.

Obi just have to win the south convincingly, get reasonable votes from the North Central, get some votes from christian states in the north East and get christian votes from the north west that's going to be enough.

Let the other thieves go share thier loots to almajiri, las last the votes will be shared among three candidates. Las las we will calculate.

searchlight:
We are not banking on northern votes for him to be president.

Northerners are too timid to buy the idea of Obi presidency, they have been willing tools used by wicked politicians to catapult themselves to power.

Obi doesn't give Shishi but some poor northern almajiri just need #500 to sell their vote, they know nothing about the economic or the problems bedevelling the ZOO, they are not sure of living tomorrow so they just have to eat.

Obi just have to win the south convincingly, get reasonable votes from the North Central, get some votes from christian states in the north East and get christian votes from the north west that's going to be enough.

Let the other thieves go share thier loots to almajiri, las last the votes will be shared among three candidates. Las las we will calculate.

you cannot win without Northern votes simple as!! ...and he isnt winning the south either!! Nobody is winning the south convincingly!! Middle belt will be marginal for APC or PDP, that leaves the North to decide and if yoy have no presence in the North you better start writing your concession speech.

searchlight:
He Gave us nothing when he was governor, he allocated all the anambra lands to himself and his family, he made his wife a senator and made his son the controller of all the market in Anambra, the whole money collected at the toll gates in Anambra are been remitted to him since he left office. He's been feeding fat from Anambra money since he left office, he's the biggest landlord in the whole of Onitsha and Igbo land in general. He picks all political office holders in anambra and beyond down to councilors, he's been driving bullion vans to his house whenever there is general election.

All these are reasons we will vote him. Do you understand or should I continue?

Your choice, Emeka. I have no choice in this! Meanwhile, these were the opinions of Obi's people in the Year 2012, I didn't write it:

casualobserver:



Nigerians tend to talk out of ignorance without looking at the data. The middle belt has never been an election decider and the most inconsequential zone in Nigeria. Why? because the middle belt vote is always split. Every major party does well in the Middle belt such that whoever wins does not win by much even when there were only 2 main contenders. Go and check the election results for the middle belt going way back to the days of Zik/Awo.

If I get 500k votes and you get 450K, yes I won that state but all that state has contributed to my overall victory is 50k votes out of 950k available voters. Do you now understand the inconsequence of marginal states....they are not king makers? Elections are decided by states where you command 80-90% majority. look at 2019 for instance just one relatively small state...Yobe wiped out the victory of PDP in ALL the middle belt states.

many of you do not understand elections. Elections are not won by the number of votes you get in a state, they are won by the cumulative difference between your votes and the opponents! if you get 2m votes in a state and I get 1.95 million, your 2m votes do not help you become president especially if I have a state where I have 700k votes and you only get 70K.

it really is amazing how naive, ignorant and uninformed Nigerians are about the mathematics of elections especially that elections are basically arithmetic.

in 2019 Atiku won Adamawa with only 38k votes out of a total votes of approx 800k despite 410k people voting for him

In Benue the difference was 9,000 votes (i repeat nine thousand votes) out of a total of 700k votes and 356k Atiku votes

in Nassarawa Buhari won by only 6,000 votes,

In kwara Buhari won by 178K, Plateau out of 1m votes PDP only won by 80k votes

and so on and so forth.

Add all the PDp victories in the middle belt and just 1 small state of Yobe wiped out all their gains...why? because Yobe votes were not shared....out of 547k votes in Yobe, 497 went to Buhari and 50k to Atiku, leaving Buhari with a margin of 447k to absorb defeats in other states. the irony is that Yobe has less voters than each of all the middle belt states, yet powerful enough to wipe out whatever happens in a whole region......because the votes are shared!! i hope you understand now why Tinubu won the election the minute Obi left PDp and declared for LP...he shared the votes making it impossible for either him or PDP to win.

so the key to victory is having states where your votes are not shared. that is why Tinubu will win the election 1st ballot.

Traditionaly stronghold states of PDP like SS/SE will be shared with Obi voters diluting the margin of victory in those states. APC are the only party with their core stronghold states relatively intact, states like Yobe, Borno. if Obi cannot dent APC in the North he is not winning this election, trust me because the states he will win or do well will be marginal. Even in the SE he will contend with PDP. who is contending with APC in states Borno and Yobe?

Dont forget, i said small Yobe state with only 500K votes wiped out PDP's entire gain in the middle belt without even using the bazooka Borno votes.

lease look at the data before you talk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election.


For those who do not understand english, you win a presidential election by adding the difference between you and your opponent in one state and all the other states and whoever is ahead is the winner. so if you are winning states by 20k 8k, 40k when your opponent is winning states by 700k, 900k, 1m....you are not in the race!!! if you get 1m votes in a state and your opponent gets 900k or 1.1m, you are not heading to Aso rock unless you have states that will give you 500k, 700k, 1m difference between you are your opponents. it is not the number of votes you get that matters but the difference!

Obi has no nothern presence so by definition he is out of the race before it starts, his only effect in this race is to make Atiku not win

States cannot be giving your opponents 1m, 1.5m 1.7 m difference and you have no states to deliver that for you and you expect to win. Emotions aside, it is mathematically impossible!

Lol you wasted lots of space to type crap, if you think that Tinubu will wing states like yobe, even Borno by 60 percent then you are still dreaming. Tinubu might not win any northern states apart from Borno state. Aside southwest Tinubu has no stronghold

Na u biko Obi

searchlight:
Lol you wasted lots of space to type crap, if you think that Tinubu will wing states like yobe, even Borno by 60 percent then you are still dreaming. Tinubu might not win any northern states apart from Borno state. Aside southwest Tinubu has no stronghold

says someone who thinks Obi can share votes from the south and Middle belt and become president without the North. I have just explained sharing/splitting of votes to you. you can win a state without winning, if you have no northern votes you have lost before the counting starts. that said

nobody is going to win the south convincingly, so even if as you say Tinubu has no votes in the North, then what you are saying is Atiku is the winner. Under no scenario can a southerner win without Northern votes because when your opponents start counting votes in the core North, you need to have ambulance on standby!.

StrongandMighty:
From Enugu metropolis to Nsukka.. This man strength and energy is on steroid!

Nsukka has also become a metropolis, thanks to gov Ugwuanyi.
In neighbouring Imo state, the Supreme Court governor has literally closed down the once developing cities outside the state capital.

casualobserver:



Nigerians tend to talk out of ignorance without looking at the data. The middle belt has never been an election decider and the most inconsequential zone in Nigeria. Why? because the middle belt vote is always split. Every major party does well in the Middle belt such that whoever wins does not win by much even when there were only 2 main contenders. Go and check the election results for the middle belt going way back to the days of Zik/Awo.

If I get 500k votes and you get 450K, yes I won that state but all that state has contributed to my overall victory is 50k votes out of 950k available voters. Do you now understand the inconsequence of marginal states....they are not king makers? Elections are decided by states where you command 80-90% majority. look at 2019 for instance just one relatively small state...Yobe wiped out the victory of PDP in ALL the middle belt states.

many of you do not understand elections. Elections are not won by the number of votes you get in a state, they are won by the cumulative difference between your votes and the opponents! if you get 2m votes in a state and I get 1.95 million, your 2m votes do not help you become president especially if I have a state where I have 700k votes and you only get 70K.

it really is amazing how naive, ignorant and uninformed Nigerians are about the mathematics of elections especially that elections are basically arithmetic.

in 2019 Atiku won Adamawa with only 38k votes out of a total votes of approx 800k despite 410k people voting for him

In Benue the difference was 9,000 votes (i repeat nine thousand votes) out of a total of 700k votes and 356k Atiku votes

in Nassarawa Buhari won by only 6,000 votes,

In kwara Buhari won by 178K, Plateau out of 1m votes PDP only won by 80k votes

and so on and so forth.

Add all the PDp victories in the middle belt and just 1 small state of Yobe wiped out all their gains...why? because Yobe votes were not shared....out of 547k votes in Yobe, 497 went to Buhari and 50k to Atiku, leaving Buhari with a margin of 447k to absorb defeats in other states. the irony is that Yobe has less voters than each of all the middle belt states, yet powerful enough to wipe out whatever happens in a whole region......because the votes are shared!! i hope you understand now why Tinubu won the election the minute Obi left PDp and declared for LP...he shared the votes making it impossible for either him or PDP to win.

so the key to victory is having states where your votes are not shared. that is why Tinubu will win the election 1st ballot.

Traditionaly stronghold states of PDP like SS/SE will be shared with Obi voters diluting the margin of victory in those states. APC are the only party with their core stronghold states relatively intact, states like Yobe, Borno. if Obi cannot dent APC in the North he is not winning this election, trust me because the states he will win or do well will be marginal. Even in the SE he will contend with PDP. who is contending with APC in states Borno and Yobe?

Dont forget, i said small Yobe state with only 500K votes wiped out PDP's entire gain in the middle belt without even using the bazooka Borno votes.

lease look at the data before you talk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election.


For those who do not understand english, you win a presidential election by adding the difference between you and your opponent in one state and all the other states and whoever is ahead is the winner. so if you are winning states by 20k 8k, 40k when your opponent is winning states by 700k, 900k, 1m....you are not in the race!!! if you get 1m votes in a state and your opponent gets 900k or 1.1m, you are not heading to Aso rock unless you have states that will give you 500k, 700k, 1m difference between you are your opponents. it is not the number of votes you get that matters but the difference!

Obi has no nothern presence so by definition he is out of the race before it starts, his only effect in this race is to make Atiku not win

States cannot be giving your opponents 1m, 1.5m 1.7 m difference and you have no states to deliver that for you and you expect to win. Emotions aside, it is mathematically impossible!

the only error you made in this your long data analysis is that you forgot all other elections happened when we had just 2 major parties contenting.

Now? We have 3. And the 3 people are from strategic areas who would want to vote for their own. You are still making the mistake using older election results to analyze what will happen. You are one of the many people this election results will shock.

* You think PMB is on the ballot. We're the whole north gave him their votes plus the sharing of middle belt and other zones.
* You still think the west who decided the 2015 election would be the decider
* You still think having block northern votes alone would win you the election of the whole of Nigeria.

1, If election rigging is minimized even to it's bearest minimum say 30%, those block votes will disappear.

2, Don't expect no block votes for any candidate from a region he isn't from. Which leave us with the middle belt deciding factor.

3, that north you're giving to APC. Atiku will shock you. OMG this election would be sweet. Northerners that I know would vote Tinubu as against Atiku?? I laugh�.

Note: it is only the northern christains that would wanna go sideways.

February isn't far

casualobserver:


says someone who thinks Obi can share votes from the south and Middle belt and become president without the North. I have just explained sharing/splitting of votes to you. you can win a state without winning, if you have no northern votes you have lost before the counting starts. that said

nobody is going to win the south convincingly, so even if as you say Tinubu has no votes in the North, then what you are saying is Atiku is the winner. Under no scenario can a southerner win without Northern votes because when your opponents start counting votes in the core North, you need to have ambulance on standby!.

Atiku has a very bright chance in this election. I am a strong Obi supporter but truth be told, he's the man to beat in this election. The madness of G-5 governor will be a blessing in disguise to Atiku. He will surely get sympathy votes from from his northern brothers.

Fact is that those governors even if they are in Atiku's camp can't deliver SE and SS to Atiku maybe they would have helped in other ways.

As for Tinubu your eyes will clear when the election results starts coming. Fear north my brother.

Alezy:
the only error you made in this your long data analysis is that you forgot all other elections happened when we had just 2 major parties contenting.

Now? We have 3. And the 3 people are from strategic areas who would want to vote for their own. You are still making the mistake using older election results to analyze what will happen. You are one of the many people this election results will shock.

* You think PMB is on the ballot. We're the whole north gave him their votes plus the sharing of middle belt and other zones.
* You still think the west who decided the 2015 election would be the decider
* You still think having block northern votes alone would win you the election of the whole of Nigeria.

1, If election rigging is minimized even to it's bearest minimum say 30%, those block votes will disappear.

2, Don't expect no block votes for any candidate from a region he isn't from. Which leave us with the middle belt deciding factor.

3, that north you're giving to APC. Atiku will shock you. OMG this election would be sweet. Northerners that I know would vote Tinubu as against Atiku?? I laugh�.

Note: it is only the northern christains that would wanna go sideways.

February isn't far

No i said it clearly that there were only 2 parties. it is even more difficult to win with any convincing margin when there are 3. which makes it even more important that you have states where you have no opposition...i.e you arent sharing votes.

it is even more difficult when the majority of voters Obi is cannibalising are PDP voters.

This is what is going to happen:

Obi will cannibalise PDP votes in the south enough to put him in the race but not enough to win the south. he will do well to come second in the south. Southern APC votes are largely intact because the kind of people who will vote for Obi would never have voted for APC anyway. Atiku will not win the south, he may not even come second.

Middle belt will be shared whoever wins will have a total margin for the whole region of not more than 200k votes

North: Obi has no hope here. it is a battle between Atiku and Tinubu. No matter what happens in the North obi will not have enough votes to become president. Even if he wins the middle belt and south he will win with a small margin and because he has no presence in the North, at least one of his opponents will quickly surpass him so he is as good as finished. Atiku will damage Tinubu here, the question is how much damage and will the damage be enough to overcome the damage Obi has done to him in the SS,SE and middle belt? I dont think so because for Obi to do well in the south and middle belt, it means Atiku has been decimated and comes with a huge deficit.

This may shock you but Atiku did not win ANY state in the North by more than 53% the last time. All the 11 states where he got more than 60% were all in the south...the very same states under threat by Obi

See below

Sweetplum:
Impressive. Wish Tinubu and Obi could v worked together. Never seen a collabo of Igbo and Yorubas. It's always Igbo and Hausas or Yoruba and Hausas. Yet there was a time during military era that north did north head of state and north vice. Which jazz did the north use on the south?
In all, let LP and APC watch out for Atiku.

bitch who are you supporting?

edogu:
Security man belike, "make una take am easy".

Okealaaye:
Nsogbu Nsogbu politics of the Tribe. What did Obi give his people when he was governor? Check it out: written by Anambrarians who felt the edge of Obi's misrule. Na dis kaind porsin Ndigbo wan make president? Tufiakwa -

Gossipninja:


When you're done crying, wipe your head on a tile.

Ode

chai

manforgu:
Obi we know

Him we want.

He will sir ,we are working on it.

ImmaculateJOE:
They don't know what's going on .

I like the way Obi is having campaign in two or more venues in his strongholds.
He should visit Southern Kaduna and Kaduna City when they take their campaign train there..

casualobserver:


No i said it clearly that there were only 2 parties. it is even more difficult to win with any convincing margin when there are 3. which makes it even more important that you have states where you have no opposition...i.e you arent sharing votes.

it is even more difficult when the majority of voters Obi is cannibalising are PDP voters.

This is what is going to happen:

Obi will cannibalise PDP votes in the south enough to put him in the race but not enough to win the south. he will do well to come second in the south. Southern APC votes are largely intact because the kind of people who will vote for Obi would never have voted for APC anyway. Atiku will not win the south, he may not even come second.

Middle belt will be shared whoever wins will have a total margin for the whole region of not more than 200k votes

North: Obi has no hope here. it is a battle between Atiku and Tinubu. No matter what happens in the North obi will not have enough votes to become president. Even if he wins the middle belt and south he will win with a small margin and because he has no presence in the North, at least one of his opponents will quickly surpass him so he is as good as finished. Atiku will damage Tinubu here, the question is how much damage and will the damage be enough to overcome the damage Obi has done to him in the SS,SE and middle belt? I dont think so because for Obi to do well in the south and middle belt, it means Atiku has been decimated and comes with a huge deficit.

This may shock you but Atiku did not win ANY state in the North by more than 53% the last time. All the 11 states where he got more than 60% were all in the south...the very same states under threat by Obi

See below

I understand what you're saying but worse come to worse there would be a run off. Because Tinubu will not get votes from the south (mark my words) the percentage he will get from the south will shock you. Forget these rallies my brother. He can also not defeat Atiku in the north.

You refer me once again to the last election where we have Buhari in the ballot and from a ruling party, how do you expect Atiku to win convincingly? Now it's an Atiku against A Tinubu in the north and you are projecting that Atiku wouldn't win states with wide margines?? Ha, you must really think so much about Tinubu.

If not that he is coming up using the ruling party, he won't even come out 3rd.

I am not still sure about Obi presence in the north but he will get votes that he needs from there in specific states.

He will win In the middle belt low margined or not but you see the SS/SE? Expect nothing less than a 80-90% victory.

Alezy:
I understand what you're saying but worse come to worse there would be a run off. Because Tinubu will not get votes from the south (mark my words) the percentage he will get from the south will shock you. Forget these rallies my brother. He can also not defeat Atiku in the north.

You refer me once again to the last election where we have Buhari in the ballot and from a ruling party, how do you expect Atiku to win convincingly? Now it's an Atiku against A Tinubu in the north and you are projecting that Atiku wouldn't win states with wide margines?? Ha, you must really think so much about Tinubu.

If not that he is coming up using the ruling party, he won't even come out 3rd.

I am not still sure about Obi presence in the north but he will get votes that he needs from there in specific states.

He will win In the middle belt low margined or not but you see the SS/SE? Expect nothing less than a 80-90% victory.

You are being emotional.

There won’t be a run-off. Tinubu/APC was never strong in the SS and SE. so what happens there makes no difference to him. SS/SE is merely a redistribution of some Atiku votes to Obi. Whatever Atiku loses in the SS/SE he will make up in the North. Obi has no northern votes.


Obi will do well in Plateau and Benue and may even win, but win in a 3 horse race means he gets 35- 40% of the votes. The margin won’t amount to much in absolute terms. Obis margin of victory in Benue and Plateau will not amount to more than 200k votes max. Kogi and Kwara will reduce if not eliminate that for Tinubu.

Obi is not getting any meaningful votes North of the middle belt except maybe southern Kaduna…full stop! Whatever gain Ibi gets in the south will be wiped out by his lack of Northern votes.

If there is going to be a run off it will be between Atiku and Tinubu. I repeat nobody will win the South with a big margin over his rivals. Therefore it is your performance In the North that will determine the top 2. If you are not in the race in the North then there is no way you come 1st or second. Again nobody is winning the south with a huge margin. Middle belt is a wash so it is the North that will determine the president.

As far as a hypothetical run off, Apc can never come third. So a run off is either between Tinubu and Atiku or Tinubu and Obi. I cannot predict the result of aTinubu/Atiku runoff but Tinubu/Obi is a no contest….North will not vote for Obi!