19 states where Tinubu may lose the 2023 presidential election


Bola Tinubu is finally one more step away from the presidency after decades of plotting. The former Lagos state governor cofounded the ruling APC and helped President Muhammadu Buhari to win two elections. Now, he believes it’s his turn to rule the country. But this won’t be a coronation. Below are 19 states where he may lose the 2023 election.

Osun
The main opposition PDP lost the 2019 presidential election in this state by only a 1% point – and yet it did not control the state at the time. This changed last year when the PDP won the state gubernatorial election. The opposition has strengthened its position here and the APC is fractured locally. The ruling party is unlikely to win next month’s election in this state.

Imo
Imo is the only state in the southeast that Tinubu’s APC controls, but the state governor and the party are highly unpopular. At best, the party will muster enough votes to satisfy a constitutional requirement that a winning candidate must get 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of states nationwide and the capital Abuja.

Anambra
The PDP comfortably won Anambra in the last five presidential elections, but this time it faces stiff competition because LP candidate Peter Obi comes from this state. Tinubu is not expected to put up a meaningful challenge there.

Plateau
Plateau presently has the most registered voters in the central north. It is a swing state with a largely Christian population, and there is constant friction between Christians and Muslims given the dynamic between the central north and the rest of the mostly Muslim north.
This is why many stakeholders flinched when Tinubu, a Muslim, picked another Muslim as his running mate – neglecting an unwritten Nigerian rule that a president and his vice cannot both be of the same faith. Voters in Plateau will have that in mind.

Enugu
The PDP always wins this southeastern state by a landslide. The party’s current candidate Atiku Abubakar got 84% of the votes in the last presidential election. If that changes this time, it won’t be because Tinubu’s on the ballot but because a more popular Obi has emerged.

Benue
Benue is a predominantly Christian state in the central north. As in Plateau, voters are averse to the APC’s Muslim-Muslim arrangement due to pre-existing religious tensions in the state. The election will be competitive here, but the PDP candidate should earn a second consecutive victory.

Taraba
Voters in Taraba have never elected a Muslim state governor, so it’s improbable they’ll vote for a party with two Muslim running mates. The state is mainly Christian and is currently controlled by the PDP.

Sokoto
The northwest is the stronghold of Tinubu’s APC, which runs all the states in this region except Sokoto. The party swept votes in this northwest area last time, but that was because its candidate Buhari is seen in the area as its religious and ethnic leader.

Now, the president’s not on the ballot for the first time since 2003. This means another candidate’s going to inherit that large segment of the electorate who vote on the basis of religion and ethnicity. Tinubu’s apparently not that candidate – northern Muslims consider southern Muslims inferior. The NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso and PDP’s Atiku are ahead here because they’re both northern Muslims and Hausa-Fulani.

Rivers
Rivers has more voters than any other state in the oil-rich Niger Delta. The state (and the rest of the southern region) is a PDP stronghold – it’s always won presidential elections by a wide margin there. But the PDP state governor now bizarrely opposes his own party’s candidate. This infighting may allow Tinubu to squeeze out enough votes to meet the 25% constitutional threshold, but his supporters still won’t expect him to win the state.

Delta
The PDP won 72% of votes in this southern state last time. Now, the state governor is also the party’s vice-presidential candidate. Tinubu will be devoting the bulk of his resources elsewhere.

Abuja
The PDP won the country’s capital five times as the ruling party and still did so in 2019 when it was in the opposition. This pattern will likely continue this year.

Ondo
Ondo is in Tinubu’s backyard: the southwest. But his party APC lost the presidential election there last time even though it runs the state. This is because the party was splintered not just in the state but also in the region. That dynamic is still at play this year.

Cross River
[/b]Atiku neatly beat the APC’s Buhari here last time with 70% of the votes. The southern state now has an APC state governor, but Tinubu seems prepared for a defeat so long as he can get up to 25% of the votes in this state toward fulfilling the constitutional requirement in two-thirds of the 36 states.

[b]Adamawa
Tinubu’s main opponent Atiku is from this state in the northeast. The ruling APC won this historically PDP state for the first time in 2015, but Atiku was in the APC at the time. Atiku should continue his home winning streak next month.

Akwa Ibom
[/b]A Tinubu win in Akwa Ibom will be a miracle. Getting 25% or more of the votes should be enough success for the ruling party candidate.

[b]Edo
The margin here in the 2019 election was barely 2% points. Next month’s election in the state will again be closely contested, and the PDP has the upper hand given it’s presently in charge of the state.

Bayelsa
Tinubu will hope that former (and current) PDP figures in this state, such as oil minister and ex-Bayelsa state governor Timipre Sylva, can get him a decent tally there. But no one should anticipate a Tinubu victory.

Abia
The Abia state governor is one of five PDP state governors who are rumored to be discussing a deal with Tinubu to sabotage their own party. Note: it’s not really ‘sabotage’ in the eyes of Nigerian politicians, who freely switch parties when it personally benefits them.

President Buhari would barely win a few thousand votes in Abia (or any other state in the southeast) in a fair election, but he managed to rally 26% of the votes in 2019 – just enough to get over the constitutional line – with the state governor’s tacit cooperation. Tinubu should expect this cooperation again this time. He knows he’s unpopular here, and so winning the state is not his priority.

Ebonyi
Ebonyi is another state where President Buhari somehow managed to get over the constitutional line in 2019 – with 25.26% of the votes. The PDP state governor who covertly organized this result has in fact since joined the ruling party. Tinubu will count on him to organize this simple result for him again, leaving Atiku and Obi to slug it out while he directs his own energy elsewhere.

Read also: 18 states where Atiku may lose this election (https://www.nairaland.com/7541627/18-states-where-atiku-may)


Adedayo Ademuwagun is a political risk consultant. Email adedayofrosh@gmail.com. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adedayoademuwagun/

Osun, Ondo, ?! Are you guys for real

If you believe this, you also believed Indian won Brazil 99-0 in a Worldcup final with balls disappearing


.

Those south south states pdp are dreaming of winning.







I don't see pdp winning any south south state unless they will buy enough votes

With all this crisis in PDP?

Tinubu is our president after February 25th

Adedayo Ademuwagun is a political risk consultant.

Why eboes always pretending and using Yoruba identity. This person called himself a political risk have nothing in upstair...A stupid ipob terrorist always pretending to be Yoruba.

Moh247:
Osun, Ondo, ?! Are you guys for real

Let me Add to the List

Nassarawa
Kano
Jigawa
Gombe
Kebbi
Kaduna
Zamfara
Bauchi
NIGER
Lagos
Bayelsa
Edo

Tinubuadvocate:
Adedayo Ademuwagun is a political risk consultant.

Why eboes always pretending and using Yoruba identity. This person called himself a political risk have nothing in upstair.

you would have called him an Ipob if he was igbo

Where is Kano?

Dey play, just dey play

That thing nah stupid ipob criminal.

Felabrity:
you would have called him an Ipob if he was igbo

19? Is this a joke?

Tinubu can only win marginally in 3 states- Lagos, Ondo & Ekiti.

Take it or leave it.

Tinubu will never smell Aso Villa.

...and who is the Nigerian in his right senses that will vote for a man, Tinubu, suffering from Parkinsonism with speech defects, forgetfulness and shuffling gait, to preside over Nigeria in the 21st century?
No Nigerian will want Nigeria to be taken for a pariah state by Western nations who know very well about Tinubu's past drug trafficking offences, if by any miracle Tinubu becomes president of Nigeria.

following ....nice forecast

Add Oyo state.


The lifeless druggie ti LULE

Fight go plenty after election

Add Gombe

Wayray

Just dey make nonsense analysis that cannot hold water.

Dey play.

If free and fair elections takes place in Lagos then Tinubu will not even smell 10%.

But we all know he is going to deploy his awawa boys to every polling unit so that he becomes victorious.

Abfinest007:
Those south south states pdp are dreaming of winning.







I don't see pdp winning any south south state unless they will buy enough votes

Even if they buy, we are decided.

#Obi

This Election will shock alot of people. In this next 30days to election, alot will come out.. just yesterday, Buhari asked Nigerians to vote any party they like regardless of religion.

Go and listen to what Tinubu days ago. Siting sabotours in his own party.

We all know PDP can only get votes in the north cos the SS/SE where he normally gather his votes are wiser now and are all behind obi.

Obi on the other hand is growing so fast in the north where Muslim clerics are now endorsing him. Watch Bauchi, Bornu and Kaduna rallies.

God is about to take this country back to where is supposed to be.

Okadaman drop me here biko.

add kano,Kadunna,Katsina.Jigawa,Gombe,Bornu,Yobe,Bauchi

I bet my balls, Tinubu will loose out on the FCT vote.
If we are serious enough and most interested in what becomes of our lives, then that umbrella that never shielded from any rain/sun or that stunted broom that never swept clean should have no chance at the coming poll. Unfortunately, those Oligarchs know the price of the average Nigerian, just like they knew the price of the delegates and paid them in full to corruptly clinch their party's mandate, and they won't hesitate to pay it again. Our sorrow is our "only today's" desire.
Meanwhile, lets go ObIdient.

APC lule niyen 🤣🤣

So, how is the jagaban going to win this election?


Tinubu ti lule

Hmmm

Like for Peter obi share for tinubu

This Election go sweet sha

Tinibu cannot win the following state.

Abia
Anambra
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Cross River
Edo
Rivers
Plateau
Benue
FCT.. They belong to Peter Obi... I dont care about the list above..

Workch:
Let me Add to the List

Nassarawa
Kano
Jigawa
Gombe
Kebbi
Kaduna
Zamfara
Bauchi

apc will get nassarawa but I am certain that apc already have a loop hole to rig this election

Moh247:
Osun, Ondo, ?! Are you guys for real

It is so. You think they will leave Christ for one muslim-muslim evil. Their Guardian Angels forbid.

dedonfranco:
With all this crisis in PDP?

Tinubu is our president after February 25th

But PDP is not the only party in the race. Don't delude yourself.