Honlucas:
Poster LP can't win Delta ..
That Ur stat is unrealistic in Delta State .

Ceteris paribus

Too much garri

FORHII:
Hehehe..." I have studied and analysed the 36 states based on party structure" This statement makes you more stupid than I could imagine.

I guess he’s stupid because he did say peter obi will have 100%?

U try.....
I think sokoto will be closer and kwankwanso will have a say in Kano.

Liebermantic:
In Lagos, Ogun ,Oyo, Osun and Ondo, the Total net gain of votes APC will have from these states above PDP and LP won't exceed 250k which will be cancelled by LP votes alone in Rivers state.
In the North Central, whoever between LP and NNPP gets Plateau, Abuja, Benue, and Kogi with huge margin will upset whatever votes APC and PDP have as edge over them in Northwest.
Again, Southern Kaduna is voting LP. CENTRAL and Northern Kaduna will be shared by NNPP, PDP and APC. LP has no rival in Southern Kaduna.
In Kano, NNPP led by Kwankwaso will get over 60% votes cast and Peter Obi will get over 500k votes from Kano. Screenshot this comment.
In Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto it's a two-horse race between APC and PDP, the same with Kebbi, Jigawa, Borno, Yobe, Gombe..NNPP and LP will accumulate votes from Christian minorities and Kwankwasiyya group in those states. In the whole of Northwest, LP will get 3 million votes.
APC will get 6million votes
PDP will get 7.5 million.
In the Northeast, PDP will get 4 million votes.
APC will have 3.7 million.
Labour Party will have 2 million votes.
In the North Central, PDP will get 2.5 million votes, APC will have 1.9 million, LP will have 5.4 million.
In the Southwest,
APC will have 4.6 million,
PDP will get 1.8 million.
LP will have 4.2 Million.

In the South South.
LP will get 5.7 million.
PDP will get 3.6
APC will get 1.7 million.
South east
APC will have 800k
PDP will have 1.2 Million.
LP will have 5.9 million.
Screenshot this comment for reference

u are a clown

You've really tried the Joseph of our time!

chinchum:
SW states also have other voters from other regions living within them and you can't completely rule out religious bias in voters decisions. You are right when you said the majority of westerners don't vote based on religion. The minority must be accounted for by the way.

Yes, SW has voters from another region in their states but count them as inconsequential in SW politics, in Lagos, the nonindigene has been entrenched into Lagos culture that the few of them who are into politics and wanted to vote would go with Tinubu based on his performance and impact in Lagos.

You can't convince a Lagosian to vote Obi ahead of Tinubu using performance and competence as a yardstick.

Do you remember the Ikeja cantonment bomb blast and how Tinubu was able to douse and arrest the disaster which could have caused more havoc, that is one of the parameters a true Lagosisn will use to access Tinubu rather than all these religious noise and abuse that is being peddled around.

If 50% of Igbo reside around Ojo and Amuwo Odofin, and their population is not half of Yoruba people in that area that would make them win those two LG, then how will LP get 35% in Lagos?

What about nnpp,kwankwaso is sweeping kano

chinchum:
His labour party will be his albatross. Nigerian youths will learn what party structure means more after February 25, 2023. Most don't understand it. It is applicable any where in the world. It is stronger in the political terrain like Nigeria.

exuberant and noiseful voters only have one votes.

"Nigerian youths will learn what party structure"

Leave them; dem dey play.

I don't know where they got the confidence they can obi's 1 year noise on the cyberspace is enough to defeat structures that are as old as 20 years.

Even elections in the most developed nation in the world is won with the backbone of party structure. I don't know if it's stupidity or ignorance that would make an educated person think the party structure won't matter in our election.

[quote author=chinchum post=120674988]My 2019 presidential election was over 98% correct. I have studied and analysed the 36 states based on party structure, voters turn out projected. I will revisit in 3 weeks.

North Central
Plateau
APC- 100,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 550,000

Benue
APC- 90,000
PDP - 150,000
LP - 600,000

Kogi
APC- 260,000
PDP - 210,000
LP - 200,000

Nassarawa
APC- 150,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 300,000

Kwara
APC- 300,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 150,000

Niger
APC- 250,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 150,000


FCT
APC- 80,000
PDP - 100,000
LP - 350,000


South East
Anambra
APC- 10,000
PDP - 50,000
LP - 750,000

Enugu
APC- 23,000
PDP - 67,000
LP - 760,000

Ebonyi
APC- 40,000
PDP - 90,000
LP - 600,000

Imo
APC- 210,000
PDP - 80,000
LP - 600,000

Abia
APC- 20,000
PDP - 100,000
LP - 550,000


South West

Lagos
APC- 700,000
PDP - 350,000
LP - 680,000

Ogun
APC- 420,000
PDP - 250,000
LP - 200,000

Osun
APC- 270,000
PDP - 250,000
LP - 230,000

Oyo
APC- 320,000
PDP - 230,000
LP - 200,000

Ekiti
APC- 160,000
PDP - 80,000
LP - 75,000

Ondo
APC- 250,000
PDP - 170,000
LP - 160,000

South South
Rivers
APC- 40,000
PDP - 50,000
LP - 750,000

Cross Rivers
APC- 850,000
PDP - 180,000
LP - 320,000

Edo
APC- 120,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 450,000

Delta
APC- 200,000
PDP - 450,000
LP - 420,000

Akwa Ibom
APC- 80,000
PDP - 290,000
LP - 320,000

Bayelsa
APC- 120,000
PDP - 200,000
LP - 100,000

North East

Taraba
APC- 180,000
PDP - 280,000
LP - 250,000

Bauchi
APC- 250,000
PDP - 380,000
LP - 190,000

Gombe
APC- 230,000
PDP - 180,000
LP - 150,000

Yobe
APC- 200,000
PDP - 250,000
LP - 85,000

Borno
APC- 450,000
PDP - 250,000
LP - 120,000

Adamawa
APC- 200,000
PDP - 400,000
LP - 90,000


North West

Kaduna
APC- 400,000
PDP - 39,000
LP - 370,000

Sokoto
APC- 200,000
PDP - 400,000
LP - 220,000

Kebbi
APC- 310,000
PDP - 400,000
LP - 130,000

Jigawa
APC- 290,000
PDP - 380,000
LP - 180,000

Kano
APC- 680,000
PDP - 450,000
LP - 290,000

Katsina
APC- 300,000
PDP - 600,000
LP - 190,000

Zamfara
APC- 400,000
PDP - 350,000
LP - 120,000


this is the right analysis and not the rubbish you pasted up there.

apc and pdp might get lower votes because kwakwanso is still in the ballot and you mumu urchins tends to understerate hamed datti in the north west ...continue fooling yourselves.

Ttalk:


Yes, SW has voters from another region in their states but count them as inconsequential in SW politics, in Lagos, the nonindigene has been entrenched into Lagos culture that the few of them who are into politics and wanted to vote would go with Tinubu based on his performance and impact in Lagos.

You can't convince a Lagosian to vote Obi ahead of Tinubu using performance and competence as a yardstick.

Do you remember the Ikeja cantonment bomb blast and how Tinubu was able to douse and arrest the disaster which could have caused more havoc, that is one of the parameters a true Lagosisn will use to access Tinubu rather than all these religious noise and abuse that is being peddled around.

If 50% of Igbo reside around Ojo and Amuwo Odofin, and their population is not half of Yoruba people in that area that would make them win those two LG, then how will LP get 35% in Lagos?

Non indigene influence on Lagos politics can not be understated as inconsequential. In places like Ago /okota, Mafoluku,, festac e.t.c Non indigenes won election against indigenes for obvious reasons.in 2015. Voters decision is not always about performance, sentiments usually play a strong role.. Tinubu's handling of cantonment bomb blast was in 2002, many lagosians most likely do not remember that in making a decision.

Waterysperm:
I can see you are an Apc man. I would have contributed my own findings but no need. But let me burst your bubble now, Peter Obi is your next president.

Peter Obi can't win this election.



Reality will hit home soon.

ezechi242:

Your labour party chances in the NW & NE and NC is quite laughable.

To make good analysis, you must learn to disassociate your emotions from your preference or want.

You make me remember students after exams who rate their performance "A" and barely gets an "E" when results are out.

Are you joking?

Ttalk:


Yes, SW has voters from another region in their states but count them as inconsequential in SW politics, in Lagos, the nonindigene has been entrenched into Lagos culture that the few of them who are into politics and wanted to vote would go with Tinubu based on his performance and impact in Lagos.

You can't convince a Lagosian to vote Obi ahead of Tinubu using performance and competence as a yardstick.

Do you remember the Ikeja cantonment bomb blast and how Tinubu was able to douse and arrest the disaster which could have caused more havoc, that is one of the parameters a true Lagosisn will use to access Tinubu rather than all these religious noise and abuse that is being peddled around.

If 50% of Igbo reside around Ojo and Amuwo Odofin, and their population is not half of Yoruba people in that area that would make them win those two LG, then how will LP get 35% in Lagos?

you know nothing about politics young urchin ....even with the large amount of rigging that went on in the 2019 election what was the number of voters apc used in winning lagos......stop decieving yourself tinubu might even loose lagos because a whole lot of yorubas with sense are voting obi then add the other tribes scattered all over the state.....una eyes go clear very soon

[quote author=ezechi242 post=120678340][/quote]




How will lp get 120,000 in zamfara

The op is delusional, PDP can’t win Delta state right now. Obi is winning Delta.

chinchum:
Your labour party chances in the NW & NE and NC is quite laughable.

To make good analysis, you must learn to disassociate your emotions from your preference or want.

You make me remember students after exams who rate their performance "A" after the exam and barely gets an "E" when results are out.

Are you joking?

you are raelly a joker ....do you know the number of christians in those states ? abi na only muslims dey vote for the north.....more over obi has a lot of muslims supporting him.....and you actually ommited kwankwaso your dreams are raelly a nightmare

garfield1:



Your predictions is the best so far but pdp cannot win apc in Edo and imo esp Edo.tinubu is more likely to win kebbi than jigawa and katsina.pdp won't get 25% in kwara.their votes in borno,yobe is too high

I will prefer to put it as it is now. Don't forget that the votes in Senatorial and HOR for a party will not be the exact performance for Presidential. I am certain some will vote APC in Senate/ HoR and a different party in presidential. This is applicable vice versa.

[quote author=ezechi242 post=120678340][/quote]

Even Peter Obi will give you a dirty slap if you present this to him.

Obi know most of you blind followers are just out there to give him high BP, Obi doesn't believe in any of your lies

garfield1:





How will lp get 120,000 in zamfara

He enjoys his fantasy.

garfield1:





How will lp get 120,000 in zamfara

do you think zamfara doesnt have any muslims supporting obi....

ezechi242:


do you think zamfara doesnt have any muslims supporting obi....

Obi won't see 5000

If you vote APC, it’s means your brain dey pain you. Only a tribal bigot will vote APC and their brain dey pain them. Only a madman will vote for a mad party.

Ttalk:


Even Peter Obi will give you a dirty slap if you present this to him.

Obi know most of you blind followers are just out there to give him high BP, Obi doesn't believe in any of your lies

urchin you will be shocked at what you will get even in the west.

chinchum:
Non indigene influence on Lagos politics can not be understated as inconsequential. In places like Ago /okota, Mafoluku,, festac e.t.c Non indigenes won election against indigenes for obvious reasons.in 2015. Voters decision is not always about performance, sentiments usually play a strong role.. Tinubu's handling of cantonment bomb blast was in 2002, many lagosians most likely do not remember that in making a decision.

What was the outcome when they supported Jimi Agbaje?

Besides this is Presidential election and not state or LG election. Yoruba have a strong stake in this election and they would prove that on election day

chinchum:
I will prefer to put it as it is now. Don't forget that the votes in Senatorial and HOR for a party will not be the exact performance for Presidential. I am certain some will vote APC in Senate/ HoR and a different party in presidential. This is applicable vice versa.

True but there is no way atiku wins tinubu in edo.it is possible in imo and kebbi but not edo

garfield1:


Obi won't see 5000

ya he might not get up to 120 but he will get way more than 40 000

Waterysperm:
I can see you are an Apc man. I would have contributed my own findings but no need. But let me burst your bubble now, Peter Obi is your next president.

He's the same person with Garfield1

Always creating ridiculous threads to suit his delusions

ezechi242:


ya he might not get up to 120 but he will get way more than 40 000

Oga,dont deceive yourself.in sokoto,kebbi,yobe,zamfara,katsina obi won't get up to 5000

garfield1:


True but there is no way atiku wins tinubu in edo.it is possible in imo and kebbi but not edo

As of today Obaseki still supports Atiku, the governors influence still has a role, the differential between APC and PDP is not quite large. You may be correct.

garfield1:


Oga,dont deceive yourself.in sokoto,kebbi,yobe,zamfara,katsina obi won't get up to 5000

self deceit ....that means the christians in those states are not up to 5000.....sorry o urchin

chinchum:
As of today Obaseki still supports Atiku, the governors influence still has a role, the differential between APC and PDP is not quite large. You may be correct.

Obaseki influence ended with edo guber.dont forger the pdp is divided between him and orbih and many pdp fans decamped to Lp while apc is intact.obaseki stronghold edo south has been overrun by lp while edo north is being handled by oshiomhole.even the gov at a time said everyone is obidient.edo is a state where they vote candidates not parties.atiku won edo by 7000.that margin is gone

ezechi242:


self deceit ....that means the christians in those states are not up to 5000.....sorry o urchin

It is not about the number of Muslims and xtians there.how many xtians vote? The entire state is in apc hands,obi votes will be thrashed