On 25 February 2023, voters in Nigeria will go to the polls to determine their country’s next President, who will replace term-limited incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, the retired major general and former military head of state.

Since the beginning of Nigeria’s current democratic regime in the 1990s, the presidency has been held by only two political parties: the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) followed by the All Progressives Congress (APC). This duopoly appears set to be broken in the upcoming election contest by outsider candidate Peter Obi, of the Labour Party.

We at Redfield & Wilton Strategies have polled 3,351 Nigerians in order to understand the dynamics of what will be a transformative election.

Altogether, we find Peter Obi leading Bola Tinubu by 40%. The full results are as follows:

- Peter Obi (Labour Party) 62%
- Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress) 22%
- Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party) 12%
- Rubi’u Musa Kwankwaso (New Nigeria People’s Party) 3%
- Another candidate 1%


70% of those who voted for PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar in 2019 say they intend to vote this time for Peter Obi, who himself used to be part of the PDP and was even Abubakar’s running mate in 2019. 20%, meanwhile, say they will again vote for Abubakar.

Likewise, 40% of those who voted for Muhammadu Buhari in 2019, a plurality, say they will vote for Peter Obi. [/b]38% of Buhari’s 2019 voters say they intend to vote for his party’s 2023 nominee, Bola Tinubu.

While enthusiasm for Obi is said to be driven by younger voters, majorities of voters across all age groups say they intend to vote for Obi.

In addition to leading in voting intention, Peter Obi is the only major candidate in the upcoming election who is viewed favourably by a majority of Nigerian voters. [b]His net favourability stands at +65%, far above that of Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, who have net favourability ratings of -38% and -22%, respectively.


Nigerians overwhelmingly believe Obi has the leadership qualities for a President. [b]For instance, 82% of Nigerians think Obi is charismatic. 73% believe that he can bring Nigerians together (compared to 23% for Tinubu and 20% for Abubakar), [/b]and 79% that he understands the problems facing Nigeria (compared to 28% for Tinubu and 29% for Abubakar).

Amidst this significant polling lead and widespread favourability, 57% of Nigerians believe that Obi will win the election later this month—a result that would be met with much enthusiasm.

Altogether, 70% say they would be excited and optimistic if Peter Obi were to win the upcoming election. Just 9% say they would feel dismayed and pessimistic with this result. By contrast, majorities of voters say they would feel dismayed and pessimistic if either Tinubu (56%) or Abubakar (51%) were to become President.


Clearly, Obi has captivated the country. In part, his success owes itself to his campaign’s use of social media. A majority (52%) of Nigerians say they use social media as their primary source of news, far above television news (15%) and online newspapers and magazines (14%). Of these, around 40% use Facebook to get the latest news, and 30% use Twitter. Whereas Obi’s main opponent, Bola Tinubu, claims to no longer read social media, Peter Obi’s fans are reportedly active in expressing their support on social media networks.

By and large, however, widespread dissatisfaction with the current Government and a yearning desire for change appear to be the critical drivers of support for Peter Obi. Economic development (67%), corruption (65%), and education (57%) are the top three issues voters say will determine how they vote in the upcoming election. On all three counts and more, the current Government has a woeful net approval rating.


55% do not have confidence in the current government, outweighing the 38% who do.


Above all, Nigerians are most critical of the government’s handling of the economy. With inflation in Nigeria running above 20%, following the introduction of a redesigned currency, an overwhelming 75% disapprove of the government’s actions on inflation. 76% of Nigerians believe that the government is currently not taking the right measures to deal with the rising cost of living, whilst only 14% say it is.


On the heels of a decade of stagnant growth, 69% disapprove of the government’s performance on economic development, and 67% disapprove of the government’s handling of employment and wages.

79% overall assess the economic situation in Nigeria to be bad, while only 19% say okay or good. Among Peter Obi voters, 87% believe that the economic situation is bad, and only 7% believe that it is good.


55% of Nigerians say their financial situation has changed for the worse in the last year, whilst 26% say it has improved, and 19% say it has stayed the same. Peter Obi voters are slightly more likely to say their financial situation has worsened (61%) and less likely to say it has improved (19%).


In addition to feeling economic insecure, voters also feel physically insecure. 72% disapprove of the government’s performance dealing with crime, while 79% identify the crime situation in Nigeria as ‘bad’ or ‘very bad.’ More granularly, 59% disapprove of the government’s performance dealing with ethnic and religious conflict, and another 46% disapprove of its performance against counterinsurgency and counterterrorism.

A decade of violence in Nigeria has displaced 2.2 million people. By some reports, 10,000 Nigerians were killed in armed conflict and 5,000 kidnapped in 2022. Increasing violence across the country has thus left many dissatisfied with the current Government.


Finally, Nigeria has a longstanding corruption problem. Corrupt practices, in particular bribery, continue to be prevalent throughout all ranks of the Nigerian public sector. When President Buhari was first elected in 2015, he promised to deal with corruption in the country. Yet, 80% of Nigerians at this moment rate corruption an extreme problem.

As a result, Peter Obi will not only be competing with his rivals. He will also be contending with voters’ (lack of) trust in the voting process. A third of Nigerians (33%) disagree that they have trust in the electoral process. Among likely Peter Obi supports, this number rises to 41%, compared to 26% who do have faith in the electoral process.


To be sure, such a question can merely indicate disappointment with a previous election result. As a counterpoint, 78% of Nigerian voters agree that their votes can make a difference, including 81% of likely Obi voters. Moreover, 63% believe the election will be determined by voters, rather than by bribery and cheating, an option selected by 25% of respondents.

Critically, in a country plagued by violence, 71% say they are very concerned about their safety during the upcoming Presidential election, compared to only 4% who say they are not at all concerned—though, again, 82% are confident that they will be able to vote if they want to do so.

As such, on the current polling, Peter Obi is set to win the upcoming Presidential Election in Nigeria decisively.

Link to poll: https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/peter-obi-leads-decisively-in-nigeria-polling/

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Why I Don't Support Tinubu for President of Nigeria

Personal reason: I don't like the choice of his Vice, he strikes me as the true face of Bokoharam.

Health reason: He is obviously struggling with his health and memories. It is not his fault that he is old, but it is his fault that he has refused to rest. I won't push him to an office that his health and age will not carry. He will end up ruling by proxy, which is not good for a country like Nigeria.

Reason based on justice: GEJ and his party were voted out of office based on incompetence, it is only fair that with the woeful failure of APC that has superseded that of PDP, the party should not be rewarded with another tenure.

Based on morals: Tinubu has consistently lied. He lied about his age, his education, and his family. They even hired people to act as bishops and priests in one of their unveiling programs. I do not trust anything he is promising. Even more, is the fact that he is an alleged drug lord and he has not denied his dealings with illegal drugs. My moral conscience won't allow me to consider him.

Religion: He is Muslim, his Vice is a Muslim and they both want to take over from a Muslim. In a country like ours with about 50% Christians, they are simply saying that the North has no Christians. And to make it more obvious, El Rufia in one of his recent interviews described the northern Christians as an "enclave".

Issue base: His major drive to be president is based on the fact that he considers the presidency as his turn (emi lo kan). Even on issues he has spoken about, none is coherent. And even if you think anyone is coherent, they don't seem to have emanated from him.

Note: I have the right to my opinion on the candidates.
This is my personal opinion.

Na true o. even my own survey is confirming it.


LIKE FOR OBI
SHARE FOR TINUBU
QUOTE FOR ATIKU

This is how a poll should look like; with specific details of every data they obtained.

Not the APC phony projection from NHRC, with no data to show.



Anyways, do you want to learn to give a full body massage, and start making money off it?

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Peter Obi remains the best candidate every conscientious Nigerian will vote for, his support cuts across religion, tribe and region.
The worst is tinubu with his Muslim Muslim ticket.

You're disturbing us with these nonsense online polls.
There's no polling booth on social media.

I can't wait for February 25 so that we can rest from this noise pollution.

Peter Obi or nothing.

Another one

I can't bear this anymore.

TheSameGuy:
You're disturbing us with these nonsense online polls.

I can't wait for February 25 so that we can rest from this noise pollution.

Don't be a blind bat! Your tears 😭 are very delicious 😋

25th February is just next week.

APC has failed and destroyed this country.
Causing Nigerians hardship and suffering

We will not vote for APC again.

TheSameGuy:
You're disturbing us with these nonsense online polls.

I can't wait for February 25 so that we can rest from this noise pollution.

painkiller can only save u cos you are broken.

Reading & responding...

I'll equally vote Obi online but on the election day, I'll vote for capable hand with track record than promise makers.

We are getting there. We're close. We'll get it right this time.

my own be say make them also come out on election come vote

anything wey make Obi no win, I go just kuku leave this Naija for una

Lol

Them say Nextier is headed by a member of Peter Obi Campaign Council.

Them come say ANAP is doing the hatchet job of Atedo Peterside who they claim supports Obi.

They also dismissed BantuPage polls.

Then Stears came, and now this one. And all of these polls continues to project one man as winner but idiotic and brainless BATstards with no regard for science believe their lord and saviour will buy the election with money.

Little wonder they are crying blood because of Naira redesign.

Peter Obi is the next president of you and your daddies.

Ndi ala!

Another one. God bless our incoming president.

Just imagine having a president that knows he was elected by the people and not by his power.dont u think such president will do everything in his power to deliver and not to disappoint.
Now
Imagine a balablu president that thinks he became a president by his power and money.dont u tink he will send no one,he will handle Nigeria how he want and send to hell fire anyone that dares opposed him.nigeria leave tribalism and vote a man coming to serve u.and not a man that thinks he owns Nigeria like he owns lagos..u go serve am tire.

His followers don't have much to do both day and night. They sit in their shopfronts during the day browsing and passing on negative and abusive messages. They have the time for online polls. In any case, how's it that polls are now a credible source of credibility in politics? Meanwhile:

If anyone tells you Peter obi can not win again, tell them he is now sure to win 15states(including FCT) from 36 states. The states are:
Abia
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Anambra
Edo
Rivers
Cross River
Delta
Akwa ibom
Bayelsa
Benue
Plateau
Taraba
Fct.

The core North that obi won't do well, will be majorly divided by 3 candidates( Tinubu, Atiku and kwanswaso) and obi Will get something too.
South West will still be divided too, whereas South east and South south won't be so divided,and obi will get landslide victory there.

so let no person tell you it's not possible again, its so POssible

Feb 25 is very close.



Vote Atiku 2023.

The heavenly hosts have already endorsed and enthroned Obi all the earthly hosts have no choice but to align.See more pain and wailing in the camp of Mr.Bullion Van because Buhari's resolve on naira redesign policy stands.

Urchins come and cry again... 😅 😅 😅

Pls don't vote APC again before we all sink

God abeg, just do us this one big favor...we take God beg you ...thank you Almighty God in advance #PO

Just dey play


Obi no be their mate

They can also come and swear him in na. Bloody mofos