Southwest has never given block votes since 1999 (4th republic) and this pattern is not changing anytime soon. All thanks to Awolowo, the giver of free and quality education. An average south-westerner is independent minded. That's why all of us can not put our eggs in one basket.

Surprisingly, Peter Obi may win SW but with a small margin while Tinubu or Atiku comes second. These factors are in favour of Obi in winning Southwest region:

1. Religion - Yoruba people are quite religious but they are neither bigots nor fanatics. With the introduction of religion into 2023 election by Ahmed Tinubu, a lot of Yoruba christians have decided to vote against Muslim-Muslim ticket. Muslim-Muslim ticket is an unpardonable insult to yoruba christians.

2. Buhari's poor performance - Due to poor performance of APC at national level, a lot of Yoruba people now detest anything that has to do with APC with passion. They are holding Tinubu responsible for the insecurity and hardship Buhari has bestowed upon Nigeria.

3. Tinubu's perceived disdain for Igbos - Tinubu's hired surpporters are not helping matters as they insult the entire tribe at will. If they want to abuse a Northerner or a Westerner, they will first christianed him Igbo, then use derogatory words on him. To them, Tinubu doesn't need igbo votes.

Bonesbreaker:
Tinubu will win in yoruba because yorubas are tribalitic take example nairaland seun for example dude and his mods tribalitic in nature but peter obi getting 25% there its allowed we move

peepydelano:
If Tinubu fails to win southwest with a wide margin then I’ll never take any Yoruba person seriously again. As for Lagos I’m waiting on the yorubas to truly prove they own Lagos, the margin must be a very wide one.

Windscribe:
Tinubu will win SW massively, at least 60%.

Meanwhile, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is not going to win in North East where he comes from, with Apc winning Borno Yobe and Gombe massively, with significant votes from Bauchi, Alhaji Atiku would be defeated in NE.

However, Atiku would perform better than Peter Obi.(Nationwide)

JoeNL22:

The sane Nigerians owns lagos. No reasonable person will vote Tinubu. If Tinubu ran for president of Yoruba nation against Osinbanjo, we the real sane Omoluabis will vote Osibanjo over Tinubu. Tinubu has cornered everything in Lagos, so we should allow to corner Nigeria? No way! Nigeria and southwest is for everybody not for a selected few. AwaLoKan!
T

lovewins:


I support Obi with my full chest, but I'm also not detached from reality. Tinubu will win every South Western state without a shadow of doubt. I can't speak to the margin, but he definitely will be first in the south west.

The only south west state I am not sure is Lagos, as that's because Lagos traditionally has been known for voter apathy. The difference between APC and PDP in both 2015 and 2019 was about 100k plus votes. Despite having the largest registered voters, less than 1.5M people voted in Lagos during the 2015 elections and less than 1M people voted during the 2019 elections.

With high voters turnout in the range of 3M voters Labour party may just win Lagos. Outside of Lagos though, Tinubu wins the rest.

peepydelano:
If Tinubu fails to win southwest with a wide margin then I’ll never take any Yoruba person seriously again. As for Lagos I’m waiting on the yorubas to truly prove they own Lagos, the margin must be a very wide one.

OmegaAutos:


Why are you Igbos so obsessed with other people's property.... What stops you from developing your own region Nd stop moving about like cursed goats

OmegaAutos:


Why are you Igbos so obsessed with other people's property.... What stops you from developing your own region Nd stop moving about like cursed goats

Windscribe:
Tinubu will win SW massively, at least 60%.

Meanwhile, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is not going to win in North East where he comes from, with Apc winning Borno Yobe and Gombe massively, with significant votes from Bauchi, Alhaji Atiku would be defeated in NE.

However, Atiku would perform better than Peter Obi.(Nationwide)

Windscribe:
Tinubu will win SW massively, at least 60%.

Meanwhile, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is not going to win in North East where he comes from, with Apc winning Borno Yobe and Gombe massively, with significant votes from Bauchi, Alhaji Atiku would be defeated in NE.

However, Atiku would perform better than Peter Obi.(Nationwide)