I created this thread to realistically discuss the possibility of the 4 major candidates getting 25% in 24 states.
U should consider that being a 4 way race, only 1 or 2 people can score 25% per state. In few cases, maybe 3.
So it’s about being top 2 in the state with likelihood of getting 25%.
Let’s assess each Region


Lalasticlala, mynd44, Seun

North-West
1. Kano
I think both Tinubu and Kwankwaso can score 25% here but unlikely for Atiku or Obi

2. Kaduna
Tinubu and Atiku

3. Katsina
Tinubu and Atiku

4 Jigawa
Tinubu and Atiku

5. Sokoto
Tinubu and Atiku

6. Zamfara
Tinubu and Kwankwaso

7. Kebbi
Tinubu and Atiku

So
North - West
Tinubu - 7
Atiku - 5
Kwankwaso - 2
Obi - 0

Okay

Tinubu 80%,atiku 65%,obi 40%

North-East

1. Borno
Tinubu (only Tinubu is certain of 25% here I think)

2. Bauchi
Tinubu and Atiku

3. Adamawa
Tinubu and Atiku

4. Gombe
Tinubu and Atiku

5. Yobe
Tinubu

6. Taraba
Tinubu and Atiku (I think Obi is capable of doing good numbers here possibly 25%)

NE
Tinubu - 6
Atiku - 4
Obi - 1 (possibly)
Kwankwaso - 0


Please remember that this is just my analysis

North-Central

1. Niger
Tinubu and Atiku

2. Plateau
Tinubu, Atiku, Obi (possibly)

3 Benue
Obi and Atiku, Tinubu (possibly)

4. Kwara
Tinubu and Atiku

5. Nasarawa
Tinubu and Atiku
6. Kogi
Tinubu and Atiku

NC
Atiku - 6
Tinubu - 5, possibly 6
Obi - 1, possibly 2
Kwankwaso - 0

South-West
Tinubu is certainly doing 25% in every state here.

1. Lagos
Tinubu and Oni

2. Oyo
Tinubu. Atiku (possibly)

3. Ogun
Tinubu and Atiku

4. Ondo
Tinubu and Atiku

5. Osun
Tinubu and Atiku

6. Ekiti
Tinubu. Atiku (possibly)

SW
Tinubu - 6
Atiku - 3. Possibly 5
Obi - 1
Kwankwaso - 0

South-East
Obi is certainly getting 25% in every state and possibly preventing any other candidate from doing so

1. Enugu
Obi. Atiku (possibly)

2. Imo
Obi and Atiku

3. Anambra
Obi

4. Ebonyi
Obi. Atiku (possibly)

5. Abia
Obi. Atiku (possibly)

SE
Obi - 5
Atiku - 1. Possibly 4
Tinubu - 0
Kwankwaso - 0

South-South

1. Rivers
Obi and Tinubu (Wike’s influence)

2. Delta
Obi and Atiku

3. Akwa-Ibom
Obi and Atiku

4. Cross-River
Obi and Atiku. Tinubu (possibly)

5. Edo
Obi, Tinubu and Atiku

6. Bayelsa
Obi and Atiku

SS
Obi - 6
Atiku - 5
Tinubu - 2. Possibly 3
Kwankwaso - 0

Total

Tinubu - 26. Possibly 28

Atiku - 24. Possibly 29

Obi - 13, possibly 15

Kwankwaso - 2

Tinubu is most likely to get 25% in 24 states on the first ballot.
Atiku can possibly do it too.

I don’t see it for Obi and Kwankwaso

What do you think?

Lalasticlala mynd44 seun

You want zombie rats to come and hug you?? Leave them with their online election results. To them it's everyone that uses Twitter MD Facebook

shigishege:
You want zombie rats to come and hug you?? Leave them with their online election results. To them it's everyone that uses Twitter MD Facebook

That’s why I stated that it’s my personal analysis

A lot of enfants , the Post should be taken to daycare section

MrPolitics:
North-West
1. Kano
I think both Tinubu and Kwankwaso can score 25% here but unlikely for Atiku or Obi

2. Kaduna
Tinubu and Atiku

3. Katsina
Tinubu and Atiku

4 Jigawa
Tinubu and Atiku

5. Sokoto
Tinubu and Atiku

6. Zamfara
Tinubu and Kwankwaso

7. Kebbi
Tinubu and Atiku

So
North - West
Tinubu - 7
Atiku - 5
Kwankwaso - 2
Obi - 0

If you don’t think Obi can score 25% in Kaduna then you’re wasting our time with propaganda.

Luckily for us we have comprehensive polls so we can dismiss propagandist like you:

https://www.nairaland.com/7569924/obi-tinubu-atiku-path-spread

No hard feelings though. Times are hard. As long as they’re paying you for the propaganda you’re posting it’s all good. Feed you family

Better days are coming. Vote Obi ❤️

MrPolitics:
Total

Tinubu - 26. Possibly 28

Atiku - 24. Possibly 29

Obi - 13, possibly 15

Kwankwaso - 2

Tinubu is most likely to get 25% in 24 states on the first ballot.
Atiku can possibly do it too.

I don’t see it for Obi and Kwankwaso

You don’t see it 😂

We should leave comprehensive face to face polls and accept the propaganda you pulled out from your bum cheeks shey? You better start creating more realistic numbers for Tinubu before they sack you lol

Just a suggestion ❤️

Obi can not get 25% in 24 states

Obi can not win any state outside the SE

As per winning any SE state, we'll wait and see

MrPolitics:


That’s why I stated that it’s my personal analysis

They would insult and rain curses on you, since you didn't align with them

MrPolitics:
South-South

1. Rivers
Obi and Tinubu (Wike’s influence)

2. Delta
Obi and Atiku

3. Akwa-Ibom
Obi and Atiku

4. Cross-River
Obi and Atiku. Tinubu (possibly)

5. Edo
Obi, Tinubu and Atiku

6. Bayelsa
Obi and Atiku

SS
Obi - 6
Atiku - 5
Tinubu - 2. Possibly 3
Kwankwaso - 0

Let’s debunk some more of your lazy propaganda for the good people of nairaland ❤️

Before the 2015 elections, Governor Chibuike Amaechi (Rivers state Governor at the time) defected to APC and publicly supported Buhari. Despite all his efforts, do you know what percentage Buhari scored there? Take a wild guess lol

He scored 4% 😂😂😂

Now how much do you think the Christian population of the SS will give to Tinubu and his MM ticket because Wike is rumoured to be privately supporting him lol?

Again try and do a better job before your boss fires you and tries to hire me instead ❤️

wegevv:


If you don’t think Obi can score 25% in Kaduna then you’re wasting our time with propaganda.

So you think Obi will get more votes than Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso in Kaduna?
Cause he has to be 1st or 2nd there to secure 25%

wegevv:


Let’s debunk some more of your lazy propaganda for the good people of nairaland ❤️

Before the 2015 elections, Governor Chibuike Amaechi (Rivers state Governor at the time) defected to APC and publicly supported Buhari. Despite all his efforts, do you know what percentage Buhari scored there? Take a wild guess lol

He scored 4% 😂😂😂

Now how much do you think the Christian population of the SS will give to Tinubu and his MM ticket because Wike is rumoured to be privately supporting him lol?

Again try and do a better job before your boss fires you and tries to hire me instead ❤️

Wike and Amaechi are not the same person.
Buhari ran against a Niger delta man also as an opposition candidate.

You are free to say whatever you like.
Saturday is here

wegevv:


You don’t see it 😂

We should leave comprehensive face to face polls and accept the propaganda you pulled out from your bum cheeks shey? You better start creating more realistic numbers for Tinubu before they sack you lol

Just a suggestion ❤️

Oh I didn’t know there are “comprehensive fave to face polls” that stated Obi will get 25% in 24 states.

Pls link me to it

MrPolitics:


Wike and Amaechi are not the same person.
Buhari ran against a Niger delta man also as an opposition candidate.

You are free to say whatever you like.
Saturday is here

And Tinubu is running with the party that has given us the worst federal government in the history of our country with a MM ticket. Demographics is king my friend

You never thought to wonder why Wike won’t support him publicly lol

Anyway this is a waste of time. I know you’re another paid promoter. Do your work. No hard feelings ❤️

Vote Obi or literally anyone else but APC ❤️

MrPolitics:


Oh I didn’t know there are “comprehensive fave to face polls” that stated Obi will get 25% in 24 states.

Pls link me to it

https://www.nairaland.com/7569924/obi-tinubu-atiku-path-spread

All the polls show Obi has the best chance. Link above but I’m sure you already know. Your bum cheeks said he has the worst chance because Tinubu is paying you lol. Maybe try and clean up with the old notes Tinubu is giving you

No hard feelings sha. Keep hustling to feed your people ❤️

Vote Obi or literally anyone else but APC ❤️

MrPolitics:


So you think Obi will get more votes than Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso in Kaduna?
Cause he has to be 1st or 2nd there to secure 25%

That’s your own logic lol.

You people need to be thinking better before Tinubu’s propaganda department sacks you.

Just some advice so you don’t lose your source of income ❤️

wegevv:


And Tinubu is running with the party that has given us the worst federal government in the history of our country with a MM ticket. Demographics is king my friend

You never thought to wonder why Wike won’t support him publicly lol

Anyway this is a waste of time. I know you’re another paid promoter. Do your work. No hard feelings ❤️

Vote Obi or literally anyone else but APC ❤️

Wike won’t support him openly cause it’s going to expose Wike to be a hypocrite.
That doesn’t mean Wike doesn’t have then pull.

So I was paid to spread propaganda on Nairaland with how many people to view it? Lool.

I’m not even a supporter of APC as I will be voting Atiku but he’s still the one most likely to hit it

wegevv:


https://www.nairaland.com/7569924/obi-tinubu-atiku-path-spread

All the polls show Obi has the best chance. Link above but I’m sure you already know. Your bum cheeks said he has the worst chance because Tinubu is paying you lol. Maybe try and clean up with the old notes Tinubu is giving you

No hard feelings sha. Keep hustling to feed your people ❤️

Vote Obi or literally anyone else but APC ❤️

That poll said Obi will get 30-35% of votes in Ondo and Ogun.
It also stated Obi will get 70% in plateau and Nasarawa.

Do you yourself honestly believe that? Lol

wegevv:


That’s your own logic lol.

You people need to be thinking better before Tinubu’s propaganda department sacks you.

Just some advice so you don’t lose your source of income ❤️

It’s simple mathematics. But it’s ok if you don’t get it

MrPolitics:


That poll said Obi will get 30-35% of votes in Ondo and Ogun.
It also stated Obi will get 70% in plateau and Nasarawa.

Do you yourself honestly believe that? Lol

I’d rather believe a scientific poll than the paid propaganda coming out of your bum cheeks lol ❤️

MrPolitics:


So you think Obi will get more votes than Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso in Kaduna?
Cause he has to be 1st or 2nd there to secure 25%

Your bias is obvious and glaring.

On what basis would you think Mr Obi will not make 25% in a state where his running mate, a northern Muslim, from a prominent family in Zaria comes from?. Add to it, the demography of Kaduna state which is evenly divided between Christians and Muslims, and the no love lost relationship between southern Kaduna people and their Muslim state government.

Do you even know who LP gubernatorial candidate in the state is, his background, capacity, reputation and where he comes from?. It's foolishness to come on here and write nonsense in the hope that it sticks. You're simply marketing Tinubu.