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POL 501 Tinubu masterclass (Sparsky vs Fisher 1972)
To followers of Chess, The game between Sparsky and Fisher in 1972 was dubbed the game of the century
I will use some Chess analogies to describe this historic victory of Asiwaju Tinubu
The Tinubu masterclass
Opening move decided to go a conservative Sicilian opening
In 1999 he won Lagos State governor
In 2003 when OBJ deceived all SW governors and the AD to not float their candidate that they should support him and in turn he will ensure they retain their seat, Tinubu disagreed with AD leaders on that arrangement. tsunami swept all AD governors only Tinubu survived
Queens gambit declined
He left AD, formed his own party AC and he was the only governor
By 2007 to grow the party he reached out to Oshiomole offered him the AC ticket in Edo vs Prof Osunbor. Oshiomole lost
Atiku and OBJ got into a fight a major fight, Atiku was in charge of PDM he was the strongest Northern politician and as the heir to Yar Adua, OBJ used YarAdua younger brother Umaru to break Atikus hold on PDM
Tinubu saw an opportunity to woo a powerful politician and get on his good side, he gave Atiku a platform to contest the 2007 election obviously Atiku had no path to win. He made Ben Obi Atikus vice. They lost but Tinubus profile started rising
Short side castling
He sponsored candidates in AC all over Nigeria. He brought many politicians treated badly and denied a ticket into his fold e.g Ngige Akume
He brought Fashola a technocrat as governor but didn't hand over the political keys to him
Fasholas performance became the standard for ACN to campaign and win many hearts across the nation
Knight advance
Below is the critical part of the game which would have effect in the future
The criminal elections of 2007 conducted by Obasanjo which was reputed to be the worst election in Nigerian history handed Tinubu a huge opportunity
He found an ally in Justice Salami of the appeal court who was instrumental in restoring the Oshiomole and Fayemi and Aregbesola into power
AC grew into 4 states.
Open file Bishop
Mimiko of Labour Party who was denied the ticket was also in tribunal vs Agagu. Tinubu approached him to provide logistic support with belief that Mimiko will decamp into ACN. Mimiko won but declined to join ACN
By 2011 Tinubu spread beyond the SW approached strong politicians who were denied a ticket or chased out of strong parties but knew he couldn't take on the FG alone at this time. He was the 3rd force in 2011
Mid game starts with slight positional disadvantage
Buhari controlled all Northern states with his new CPC, Jonathan and PDP controlled most SE NC and SS states
CPC and PDP were stalemate here comes tie breaker Tinubu.
Buhari in his idealistic thinking felt he could do by picking Bakare a Pastor with zero structures. He didn't agree to Tinubus terms.
GEJ saw the opportunity approached Tinubu who tactically floated a dummy Ribadu and Fola Adeola(2 moslems who had zero political structures and were barely politicians) he knew weren't going anywhere. Tinubu stepped down all ACN machinery in the SW and allowed the PDP a free ride.
Now he has become a major power broker who tactically made Jonathan president without appearing to.
Knight fork
After winning in 2011, Jonathan started some aggressive moves to break Tinubu so he won't have to beg everytime. One of such moves was to make a SW Mulikat Adeola Speaker, Jonathan thinking was to raise a powerful SW politician that will be an alternative to Tinubu.
Tinubu knew this was an act of aggression on their gentleman handshake and he mobilized the ACN reps to reject Mulikat and support Tambuwal,
Counterplay sacrificed pawn to gain positional advantage
Buhari lost 2011 again and started crying on TV and was hopeless. As a man of strategy Tinubu knew Buhari was at his low and vulnerable point, he approached Buhari this time Bubu was more than willing
Tinubu started the cleanup of Buhari's image from a clueless out of touch military religious extremist guy to this misunderstood charming, introvert, gap toothed, strong man that Nigeria needed at this critical time to get rid of corruption and PDP indiscipline
This chess player goes into deep analysis and thinking
Thus APC was birthed with the plan to use Buhari's popularity with Tinubu's money and skilled politicking to push Buhari into power but this time Tinubu was to pick Buhari's vice.
APC also won over Atiku after he lost out in PDP and breakaway PDP governors. Atiku came into the convention ground hoping to buy the ticket as usual
Buhari has never done any real competitive primary in a party everyone didn't worship him. Primary ground, Buhari was stunned about how Atiku was about to steal the ticket right there with money . Until Tinubu matched Atiku dollar for dollar and Buhari won the ticket
Middle game management used knight to fend off offensive
This is where the game starts getting interesting..
Now the deal was for Tinubu ACN to provide the Vice.
Tinubu knew he was interested in succeeding Buhari. And giving a strong vice would build up the Vice politically over 8yrs and might build enough goodwill to succeed Buhari
This was Tinubu's biggest masterstroke. He gave Buhari an Osinbajo who was smart but has the political clout of a 13yr old girl. Osinbajo was a very safe choice, he was not popular nor charismatic enough to gather the clout to state Jagaban in the face
There were other options like Fashola and Fayemi but they were risky and could get ambitious and endear themselves to people
Buhari asked Tinubu for 3 choices, Tinubu returned with one choice an unknown Yemi Osinbajo who will complete 8yrs and have less to nothing in political power to challenge for the seat
Queen advance
Buhari won election and Tinubu is in a good position Nationally acknowledged as the brain behind the success, thus issues started cropping up, fissures grew in the hurriedly assembled APC. Saraki wanted more than he was offered and broke the party, Buharis packaging has now begun to fall off, the makeup was beginning to melt and the man behind the mascara was beginning to show and its not pretty, Tinubu was schemed out by Buharis CPC friends including Abba Kyari and ElRufai, Things were not going to plan
Should he pull out of the APC, blurt out or maintain status quo and reach out to enemies
The Queen beat a tactical retreat
Throughout Buharis regime, many party internal issues came up, Buhari stayed aloof, Osinbajo stayed on the fence but Tinubu dove head on into the murky waters, aggressively supporting his men, He got bruised in many places like Ekiti, Ondo, Edo, Kano, Oyo but he stuck to his men and was even rumored to be schemed out
Officer exchange, Sac Bishop for Knight
Comes 2022, Tinubu has broken into the ranks of governors in his party and showing loyalty to them in times of trials won him a lot of die hard loyalists like Oshiomole and Ganduje who will lay their lives for him
By now Tinubu had taken control of all the APC structures and wanted the party to go for a direct primary, Some felt there was no way they could match the network of Tinubu in a direct primary and pushed for indirect where only chosen delegates voted
Tinubu called upon his network of Governors and allies when Buhari wanted to anoint Lawan, they stood up and insisted it goes to the South. He won the primary
Rook to center, End game starts with significant positional advantage
Opposition started panicking, the were split into multiple factions Obi, Kwankwanso G5 and Atiku. Tinubu though weakened by many of the policies under Buhari including Cash swap, fuel scarcity, general insecurity, failing health, etc. His generals stood behind him like Allied forces stood behind General Eisenhower in the battle of Normandy in the final offensive against Nazi Germany. When the boats were rocking his Northern governors came out forcefully, He then found an invaluable ally in the G5 and Wike who was aggrieved from PDP and swore to neutralize Atiku everywhere. Late hour Wike declared for Tinubu, neutralizing an important state for Obi and Atiku
Rook moves to the 7th rank
Elections are conducted Tinubu leading and appears ready to make his checkmate move on May 29 when he is expected to be sworn in as Commander in Chief
You can see it was a gradual ascension filled with scheming which he lost some but won many
This man called Jagaban who many people do not like but smart people deeply respect
He understands politics. He is smart enough not to fight anyone dirty thus always leaving the room for reconciliation open, the power of compromise give & take, persuasion and when to use the power of money
Most times those who fight Tinubu can only do it on the pages of paper By the time you meet him, His humor, his slow thick voice, his offer he will give you, You most likely will leave him calm and ready to compromise
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