Bluntguy:
Peter Obi is the winner of the election.
Tinubu is a usuper.

Pls how? Just explain

colestephan86:

Are the Nigerians in FCT , super Nigerians?

I'm sure that's what the constitution says. Otherwise, that clause would have been AND 'Lagos'. Which would have granted Lagosians special status. So right now, Nigerians in the FCT are 'super Nigerians.' The constitution made it so. Maybe you should consider relocating to Abuja to claim your super Nigerian status too. Don't leave too late.

Mhurfhy:
Obi won and that's all that matters... The court will do the needful and announce Ellu P the winner

How, abeg.votes obi got in the north are true picture of how it Is.no rigging

PointB:
It's no news that INEC declared Mr. Bola A. Tinubu as the winner of the Feb' 25th elections. Sequel to that, some presidential aspirants have approached the court to examine sensitive material used in the election. This is a precursor to filing appeals for a redress. While we don't know exactly what the various party will be asking for, however based on several commentators on the matter, notably Former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, one can see the various possible angles for upturning the pronouncement of the INEC chairman.


1. Inconsistence in announced and transmitted results.

A notable inconsistence between belatedly transmitted and announced result was recently circulated online. It was the case of Obi Akpor LGA in River State, where LP were clearly short changed in favour of APC. As citizens statisticians continued to pore through results uploaded on the INEC IREV server, expect more of such inconsistences. The potential for this to reduce the number allocated to the supposed winner, while swelling the number of the supposed losers, is a very important result of this. Lagos, PH, Benue, Plateau, Akwa Ibom, are among states where the LP might garner more votes than currently announced for them. And extension, APC losing more the lead margin. Debit APC, Credit LP,


2. The Conjunctive Clause 'AND' FCT

Never in the history of Nigeria's checkered electoral history has AND assumed so much importance than now. English scholars, quasi-lawyers, and professional lawyers all however, seems to agree with the former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, that AND FCT is a conjunctive clause, implying obtaining 25% FCT votes is the NO 1 requirement of the election (in a manner of speaking). Incidentally, the APC candidate Mr. Bola A. Tinubu did not meet this basic constitutional requirement. It's an understatement to say that INEC hastily announced him winner, in the dead of the night, even before the first cock crow.

3. Electronic (Non) Transmission of result
It's not necessary to go into the nitty-gritty of the electoral law to determine whether transmission in Realtime is mandated by the law or not. What is important actually is what the electoral body established as part of the electoral guideline. Without gainsaying, the INEC Chairman severally announced, in different fora, that the result will be transmitted in Realtime from the polling station. This is the understanding of the candidates going into the election. Did INEC transmit the Presidential Result in Real Time as stipulated in their own guideline? NO. Clearly this is like a case of dribbling the candidates and electorates. INEC broke it's own rule. This is clearly a major reason for upturning the result as declared.

That said, what is expected of the three main candidates as this unfold?

First LP - Obi

Mr Obi will definately argue that he be declared winner of the election, based on number of votes cast, cos it's most likely the recomputed results will favour him

PDP

It's in the interest of the PDP to go for a re-run, as they might likely come second, when all the illegal votes might have been stripped from the APC candidate.

APC

APC will either push for total cancellation and fresh election, or argue for the court to overlook all those infraction, and continue with business as usual, as there is not precedence for upturning of a presidential election by the court in Nigeria. It is not clear what they will opt for.

Citizens

Waiting with bated breath,

only atiku have a case, even if rivers n lagos votes are canceled, obi didn’t get 25% in 24 states n besides evidences of rigging will b established in the south east n many of them are obvious


Atiku might have a case but he doesn’t have d figures

Forget anything like winning fct or cancellation of election, that is impossible

So if they cancel election cos some candidates that lost pleaded d election b canceled n they conduct another one, what if other candidates that lose out too says they want election cancelled again?

So the cycle will continue meaning they might canceled the election till forever cos everyone can never b satisfied especially in a case where only one winner can b declared

Bluntguy:
Peter Obi is the winner of the election.
Tinubu is a usuper.

someone who doesn’t have 25% in 24 states or are u telling us obi won in d core north too?

chivic:
APC will not argue for election cancellation but they will insist that they won.By the time it get to that stage ,it will be to late for them to demand for the cancellation because that would not be in their initial submission.

LP on the other hand will need to prove that they got 25% in about 24 state which they are also claiming while trying to reduce the number of state where the APC got 25% so that it will be below 24.They are hoping to knock off APC is Lagos , plateau,Rivers ,Bayelsa ,Cross river ,and one or two state from the 25% criteria while laying claims of 25% in Ogun,Ekiti,Bauchi,Gombe,Adamawa,Borno etc.

PDP on the other hand will hope that LP does not get the required 25% in the required state .They have a strong believe that LP will reduce the vote declared for APC massively which will then make them the party with the required spread of 25% and more vote than APC even if LP has more vote than them.Ideally this scenario would have lead to a runoff election but supreme court can do magic.

Recounting will strip huge numbers from APC votes and swell that on the opposition. So APC will not be in a position to insist they won. They will argue for a general cancellation of the election, or that the issues be overlooked in the 'interest of peace'. Their henchmen will float the idea of Government of National Unity. Ironically, it's the LP that will now be asking for the election to stand, with IREV result as a basis for tabulation, contrary to their initial submission. This is because LP will easily prove they won more states and had the required spread. PDP will argue for a run-off against LP. APC will come distant third, and will have incoherent position.

Very apt analysis op.
INEC goofed by not adhering to their own set electoral guidelines (which according to the constitution is automatically an electoral law)
I guess they under rated Obi only to enter into fire brigade mode when they saw the inevitable defeat of APC their by shooting themselves on the leg.
Even if Tinubu's twin brother is the SC Chief justice, they cannot pull this through because the evidence is too overwhelming and the whole world is watching

stonemasonn:
Let me tell you guys one thing. In a one on one election between Tinubu and Obi. Tinubu will beat Obi black and blue.

You guys really underate the people that voted Tinubu because they are silent.

Atiku is the only candidate that can defeat Tinubu one on one.

I like your second line

Tinubu supporters are silent while obi people are making noise

Godwin4444:
I like your second line

Tinubu supporters are silent while obi people are making noise

You mean supporters that couldn't help him win Lagos and Osun? The supporters are not there, they are minority

stonemasonn:
Let me tell you guys one thing. In a one on one election between Tinubu and Obi. Tinubu will beat Obi black and blue.

You guys really underate the people that voted Tinubu because they are silent.

Atiku is the only candidate that can defeat Tinubu one on one.

If APC is sure of beating Obi, why did they release their thugs to harass Obi supporters to gain advantage to rig him out?

PointB:


If the results are re-tallied, Obi will win more states, and increase his spread. That's the point here.

so u believe nobody will talk about all d 97% obi got in d east?


U people talk about what u call your strength without thinking of that of d opponent n that’s a recipe for disaster

Godwin4444:
only atiku have a case, even if rivers n lagos votes are canceled, obi didn’t get 25% in 24 states n besides evidences of rigging will b established in the south east n many of them are obvious


Atiku might have a case but he doesn’t have d figures

Forget anything like winning fct or cancellation of election, that is impossible

So if they cancel election cos some candidates that lost pleaded d election b canceled n they conduct another one, what if other candidates that lose out too says they want election cancelled again?

So the cycle will continue meaning they might canceled the election till forever cos everyone can never b satisfied especially in a case where only one winner can b declared

Looks like you didn't read or analyse the post. No further comment.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
You mean supporters that couldn't help him win Lagos and Osun? The supporters are not there, they are minority

so Nigeria ends in lagos n osun according to u

Y didn’t obi supporters win the north for him or at least get 25% for him

Many of u need voter education n understand that in election u will always have your areas of strength n weaknesses n in every election in d world there will always b upset

With the way u people present it that south south n south east is in d bag for obi, I wasn’t even expecting tinubu to get 1 vote in d south south let alone winning n coming second

PointB:


Looks like you didn't read or analyse the post. No further comment.

I am making it clear to u that u should rule out any idea of cancellation of the election

PointB:


Recounting will strip huge numbers from APC votes and swell that on the opposition. So APC will not be in a position to insist they won. They will argue for a general cancellation of the election, or that the issues be overlooked in the 'interest of peace'. Their henchmen will float the idea of Government of National Unity. Ironically, it's the LP that will now be asking for the election to stand, with IREV result as a basis for tabulation, contrary to their initial submission. This is because LP will easily prove they won more states and had the required spread. PDP will argue for a run-off against LP. APC will come distant third, and will have incoherent position.

can u confidently say it that the lp won in d north or also got 25%?

Godwin4444:
so u believe nobody will talk about all d 97% obi got in d east?


U people talk about what u call your strength without thinking of that of d opponent n that’s a recipe for disaster

None of the other candidates can win 25% of the SE votes, cos of the way SE vote. Don't forget also that SE is almost a homogenous society, with high sense of justice. The worst that will happen in SE is that Obi might lose some votes, but that SE will give Tinubu or Atiku 25%, is highly unlikely. There is not a single motivation for SE to vote anyone of the other candidates. None whatsoever!

Winning over 90% in the SE by Obi is not an aberration.

Amumaigwe:


If APC is sure of beating Obi, why did they release their thugs to harass Obi supporters to gain advantage to rig him out?

hope u know in d south east people were sent out of polling units for not wanting to vote lp…..I believe u have seen d videos


Hope u also saw d video of how an lp supporter slapped a man n a lady was in d background shouting “ shame u want to vote apc”…n many more


To every evidence u think u have against tinubu there are counter evidences too

Godwin4444:
can u confidently say it that the lp won in d north or also got 25%?

It depends on which part of the north your referring too. NC, NE, NW? Cos the North is not one. The Christian population in the North surely have their own agenda.

PointB:


None of the other candidates can win 25% of the SE votes, cos of the way SE vote. Don't forget also that SE is almost a homogenous society, with high sense of justice. The worst that will happen in SE is that Obi might lose some votes, but that SE will give Tinubu or Atiku 25%, is highly unlikely. There is not a single motivation for SE to vote anyone of the other candidates. None whatsoever!

Winning over 90% in the SE by Obi is not an aberration.

hope u know the same way others can’t get 25% in d south east is the same way many I mean many states will never vote obi

I believe u saw results of d north, so if u claim no one will support other candidates in d east they will tell u no one can support obi in d north too

Funny enough north has more states than south east, don’t forget if obi had 97% in d east which is 5 states he will have less that 5% in d north which is over 10 states n same in d south west states too


So can u see arguments n counter arguments so tell me how a student who have A in 1 unit course n F in 4 unit course can claim he passed?

PointB:


It depends on which part of the north your referring too. NC, NE, NW? Cos the North is not one. The Christian population in the North surely have their own agenda.

I am talking about north west n north east

The mistake u people make is thinking all Christian’s will vote obi so u are calculating the Christian population in Nigeria

What about ekiti n ondo that are predominantly Christian’s but didn’t vote obi?

PointB:


I'm sure that's what the constitution says. Otherwise, that clause would have been AND 'Lagos'. Which would have granted Lagosians special status. So right now, Nigerians in the FCT are 'super Nigerians.' The constitution made it so. Maybe you should consider relocating to Abuja to claim your super Nigerian status too. Don't leave too late.

What part of the construction said that.
Show the word how intelligent and up to date you .

Godwin4444:
hope u know the same way others can’t get 25% in d south east is the same way many I mean many states will never vote obi

I believe u saw results of d north, so if u claim no one will support other candidates in d east they will tell u no one can support obi in d north too

Funny enough north has more states than south east, don’t forget if obi had 97% in d east which is 5 states he will have less that 5% in d north which is over 10 states n same in d south west states too


So can u see arguments n counter arguments so tell me how a student who have A in 1 unit course n F in 4 unit course can claim he passed?

Again I ask you, which North?

SE is Igbo, and Christian. Is North Hausa, Fulani, Nupe, Gwari, Igala, Tiv, Kanuri, or ...? Is North Muslims or Christians? You're failing to account for these differences that why you keep saying North. There is no more monolithic North, especially in this 2023 election. The Muslim-Muslim ticket, Tinubu baggage, Atiku unpopularity with some Northern state, and Obi meteoric rise changed the dynamic of the election. So you need to account for those rather that shouting North.

PointB:



Again I ask you, which North?

SE is Igbo, and Christian. Is North Hausa, Fulani, Nupe, Gwari, Igala, Tiv, Kanuri, or ...? Is North Muslims or Christians? You're failing to account for these differences that why you keep saying North. There is no more monolithic North, especially in this 2023 election. The Muslim-Muslim ticket, Tinubu baggage, Atiku unpopularity with some Northern state, and Obi meteoric rise changed the dynamic of the election. So you need to account for those rather that shouting North.

u keep twisting tales to suit u

Asking me which north

No problem reality will hit u hard

Shebi obi won 97% in his home n no candidate got 10% but this same obi also won in other peoples stronghold

No need to argue with u

Go n tell d judge Peter obi won in every state

colestephan86:

What part of the construction said that.
Show the word how intelligent and up to date you .

I do not get your question, and by way, I'm not here to show off my intelligence. There are other fora where I can do that.

For the avoidance of doubt, the constitution says AND FCT, it did not say and LAGOS or IMO, or KOGI.

If FCT was not special, the constitution wouldn't have made a direct reference to it. But that's for the court to determine, based on the 2008 precedence.

Godwin4444:
so Nigeria ends in lagos n osun according to u

Y didn’t obi supporters win the north for him or at least get 25% for him

Many of u need voter education n understand that in election u will always have your areas of strength n weaknesses n in every election in d world there will always b upset

With the way u people present it that south south n south east is in d bag for obi, I wasn’t even expecting tinubu to get 1 vote in d south south let alone winning n coming second

If tinubu doesn't not have supporters in his home states, then where?

PointB:
It's no news that INEC declared Mr. Bola A. Tinubu as the winner of the Feb' 25th elections. Sequel to that, some presidential aspirants have approached the court to examine sensitive material used in the election. This is a precursor to filing appeals for a redress. While we don't know exactly what the various party will be asking for, however based on several commentators on the matter, notably Former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, one can see the various possible angles for upturning the pronouncement of the INEC chairman.


1. Inconsistence in announced and transmitted results.

A notable inconsistence between belatedly transmitted and announced result was recently circulated online. It was the case of Obi Akpor LGA in River State, where LP were clearly short changed in favour of APC. As citizens statisticians continued to pore through results uploaded on the INEC IREV server, expect more of such inconsistences. The potential for this to reduce the number allocated to the supposed winner, while swelling the number of the supposed losers, is a very important result of this. Lagos, PH, Benue, Plateau, Akwa Ibom, are among states where the LP might garner more votes than currently announced for them. And extension, APC losing more the lead margin. Debit APC, Credit LP,


2. The Conjunctive Clause 'AND' FCT

Never in the history of Nigeria's checkered electoral history has AND assumed so much importance than now. English scholars, quasi-lawyers, and professional lawyers all however, seems to agree with the former Attorney General, Mr, Michael Aondoaka, that AND FCT is a conjunctive clause, implying obtaining 25% FCT votes is the NO 1 requirement of the election (in a manner of speaking). Incidentally, the APC candidate Mr. Bola A. Tinubu did not meet this basic constitutional requirement. It's an understatement to say that INEC hastily announced him winner, in the dead of the night, even before the first cock crow.

3. Electronic (Non) Transmission of result
It's not necessary to go into the nitty-gritty of the electoral law to determine whether transmission in Realtime is mandated by the law or not. What is important actually is what the electoral body established as part of the electoral guideline. Without gainsaying, the INEC Chairman severally announced, in different fora, that the result will be transmitted in Realtime from the polling station. This is the understanding of the candidates going into the election. Did INEC transmit the Presidential Result in Real Time as stipulated in their own guideline? NO. Clearly this is like a case of dribbling the candidates and electorates. INEC broke it's own rule. This is clearly a major reason for upturning the result as declared.

That said, what is expected of the three main candidates as this unfold?

First LP - Obi

Mr Obi will definately argue that he be declared winner of the election, based on number of votes cast, cos it's most likely the recomputed results will favour him

PDP

It's in the interest of the PDP to go for a re-run, as they might likely come second, when all the illegal votes might have been stripped from the APC candidate.

APC

APC will either push for total cancellation and fresh election, or argue for the court to overlook all those infraction, and continue with business as usual, as there is not precedence for upturning of a presidential election by the court in Nigeria. It is not clear what they will opt for.

Citizens

Waiting with bated breath,

Great analysis but…

On the FCT thing I think that is done. I was one of the people that started questioning that requirement on here, even before the election, and still believe that the English written in that section requires 25% in FCT. But it turns out the courts have already previously made an interpretation so they will likely go with that precedent

I’m pretty sure this is why you won’t here LP or PDP argue injustice on that basis. That one looks to be settled unfortunately

colestephan86:

Are the Nigerians in FCT , super Nigerians?

That is the constitution,Yu must have 25% in the federal capital

Great point there, @Op I believe the stolen mandate will be returned, I see a fresh election on the hirozen.

stonemasonn:
Let me tell you guys one thing. In a one on one election between Tinubu and Obi. Tinubu will beat Obi black and blue.

You guys really underate the people that voted Tinubu because they are silent.

Atiku is the only candidate that can defeat Tinubu one on one.

More reason why they are silent, is because they don't exist. You and I know that no one voted for Ahmed Tinubu

Bluntguy:
Peter Obi is the winner of the election.
Tinubu is a usuper.

He only won in buafrauud land
He can never be president with his ethnic and religion cards

colestephan86:

Are the Nigerians in FCT , super Nigerians?

Ask the writers of your Constitution.
We know some of you are not intelligent, but consider the following.

In the United States, there is something called the electoral college. You can win the popular vote but still lose the election because there is a spread that must be satisfied. This is decided by electoral college votes.

Hillary Clinton scored more votes, but Donald Trump became the president. You must win 270 Electoral college votes to win the US presidential election.

This is what Abuja's one quarter votes represents in Nigeria. Anybody who seek to circumvent this very important constitutional provision must be promptly arrested and incarcerated.

yaki84:

Even if PO scores the highest number of votes cast, he WON'T be declared the winner cos he doesnt have the mandatory 25percent spread in atleast 24states.

My concern now is if eventually the court declare that inec erred In announcing the winner, who between AA and PO will contest the rerun.against BAT?

LP will meticulously recount the votes, hoping to win more spread first, and more numbers. They don't really need more states at this stage, just more overall numbers. If the LP is not able to do this, then the rerun will be between APC and PDP, especially if the court insist on the 25% FCT votes.