https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkeys-election-went-wrong-erdogans-163758590.html

Turkey's biggest election of its post-Ottoman era confounded pollsters and threw up surprises that underscored the difficulty of gauging the mood of the sharply polarised country.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came within a fraction of a percentage point of defeating secular challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the first round.

Neither one's ability to break the 50-percent threshold sets up a historic May 28 runoff -- Turkey's first -- that Erdogan enters as the strong favourite.

Kilicdaroglu's performance was the opposition's best of Erdogan's two-decade rule.

But the 74-year-old former civil servant had to assume the role of consoler-in-chief instead of president-elect on Monday.

"Don't despair," he told his despondent supporters.

AFP looks at Sunday's main surprises.

- It wasn't the economy -

"It's the economy, stupid," strategist James Carville famously told future US President Bill Clinton when trying to come up with a battle plan for his 1992 election campaign.

Turkey's case proved that mantra had caveats.

Erdogan entered the election battling Turkey's worst economic crisis since the 1990s.

The official annual inflation rate touched 85 percent last year. The unofficial one calculated by economists -- and trusted by most Turks -- approached 200 percent.

Erdogan fought it by refusing to drop his unconventional theories and instead handed out incentives and pay rises to various segments of the population.

Analysts estimate the cost of his pledges at billions of dollars.

"The last-minute spending promises -- like the 45-percent wage hike for 700,000 public servants -- have helped," said Verisk Maplecroft analyst Hamish Kinnear.

"Erdogan's promise to rebuild areas devastated by the earthquake also appears to have cut through to voters."

Erdogan maintained high levels of support in almost every region hit by the deadly February disaster.

- Kurdish problem -

Turkey's long-repressed Kurdish community accounts for almost a fifth of the population and more than 10 percent of the vote.

It largely supported Erdogan in his first decade of rule and turned against him in the second.

Some analysts felt that the main pro-Kurdish party's decision to formally endorse Kilicdaroglu could put him over the top.

But Erdogan used it against him by telling voters that the opposition was taking orders from the PKK Kurdish militia.

"Erdogan's strategy of linking the opposition to the PKK and the terrorist movement paid off," Bayram Balci of the CERI Sciences Po institute said.


Istanbul housewife Leyla Gurler said the opposition's courtship of the pro-Kurdish HDP party concerned her.

"If the opposition had won, it would have been because of the HDP and the PKK," said the 57-year-old. "They stood together with the PKK. They made a mistake there."

- 'Unadulterated ultranationalism' -

Erdogan's chances on May 28 are helped by the unexpected rise of little-known ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan.

The 55-year-old picked up 5.1 percent of the vote as an independent.

He was once a member of an ultra-nationalist party that forms part of Erdogan's parliamentary alliance and represents voters who have more in common with Turkey's leader than the leftist Kilicdaroglu.

Analyst Umut Ozkirimli said nationalism has been a "constant" component of Turkish politics since the 1990s.

Various nationalist and far-right groups picked up 22 percent of the vote in Sunday's legislative ballot.

"The fact that Sinan Ogan won above five percent of the vote underlines that unadulterated ultranationalism is well and alive in Turkey," political risk consultant Anthony Skinner said.

"It would be a surprise if Ogan decides to place his support behind the moderate Kilicdaroglu for the second round of the presidential election. Erdogan is in pole position on 28 May."


- Biased pollster -

Turkey's pollsters emerged as one of the day's biggest losers.

Only a small fraction predicted an Erdogan victory. Some put Kilicdaroglu ahead by 10 percentage points.

"Staggering how bad the polls and most of the secular analysts were in calling this one," emerging markets economist Timothy Ash remarked.

The veteran Turkey watcher attributed it to pollsters' inherent political bias in a country with sharply polarised and deeply entrenched views.

"I have to say all the analysts I trust, who are closer to the (ruling party), were saying 50-50, too close to call, with a bias to Erdogan."

Skinner noted that Kilicdaroglu's party had spent part of Sunday night claiming to be ahead in the election and disputing the results published by state media.

Opposition "officials still have to explain why they were so bullish as the voting progressed. Were their models fundamentally flawed or was something else at play?" Skinner told AFP.

Mynd44
Nlfpmod

In some ways I see a few parallels in the Turkish elections and the recently concluded elections in Nigeria.

1. Erdogan's rival, kemal, was endorsed by the Kurdish separatist PKK, which ended up working against him as this was exploited by his rivals. This mirrors the separatist ipob's endorsement and support of Peter Obi's candidacy, which made some sections of the country apprehensive about him.

2. Biased polls: The vast majority of opinion polls tipped kemal as the winner of the election, same way Peter Obi was the projected winner by most pre-election polls.

Though the elections have yet to be concluded, but unless something drastic happens, the upcoming runoff is the incumbent Erdogan's to lose at this point.

I Even prefer ergogan to the guy sef and I'm sure majority of Turks do too

This mirrors the separatist ipob's endorsement and support of Peter Obi's candidacy



Even after elections the lying continues

ZonalHead:
I Even prefer ergogan to the guy sef and I'm sure majority of Turks do too

Kindly state your reason for supporting him

limeta:
This mirrors the separatist ipob's endorsement and support of Peter Obi's candidacy



Even after elections the lying continues

IPOB solder your mouth there!

CondenseMilk:


Kindly state your reason for supporting him

His hair is very fine and he looks matured

ZonalHead:
His hair is very fine and he looks matured

Did you school in Sudan?

afroniger:
In some ways I see a few parallels in the Turkish elections and the recently concluded elections in Nigeria.

1. Erdogan's rival, kemal, was endorsed by the Kurdish separatist PKK, which ended up working against him as this was exploited by his rivals. This mirrors the separatist ipob's endorsement and support of Peter Obi's candidacy, which made some sections of the country apprehensive about him.

2. Biased polls: The vast majority of polls tipped kemal as the winner of the election, same way Peter Obi was the projected winner by most pre-election polls.

Though the elections have yet to be concluded, but unless something drastic happens, the upcoming runoff is the incumbent Erdogan's to lose at this point.

IPOB never endorsed Obi.

It was the reasonable youths and professional Nigerians that knew Obi would be a game changer and endorsed him.

The political elites used the rigging machinery to declare a fraud winner.

I ask people who are unbiased this question.

If Tinubu truely won the election, why was almost the whole nation mourning?
only the hand dew of his boys and supporters were celebrating.

When Buhari won in 2015 when social media is not as it is now,we saw celebration across different regions,why did we not see that with Tinubu despite social media being more popular now?

Despite all the opposition came together, they could not defeat him.
He has strong support base.

xpressionx:



IPOB never endorsed Obi.

It was the reasonable youths and professional Nigerians that knew Obi would be a game changer and endorsed him.

The political elites used the rigging machinery to declare a fraud winner.

I ask people who are unbiased this question.

If Tinubu truely won the election, why was almost the whole nation mourning?
only the hand dew of his boys and supporters were celebrating.

When Buhari won in 2015 when social media is not as it is now,we saw celebration across different regions,why did we not see that with Tinubu despite social media being more popular now?

Oh please. Peter Obi lost that election fair and square. He simply had no path to victory. Asides Lagos, can you prove that he won any other SW state? I mean prove not some silly conjecture. Can you also prove that he won any state in the NW and NE? Can you also prove that he won Kwara, Kogi, and Niger states? The talk about people not celebrating his victory as proof that he didn't win is the lamest excuse I've ever heard, like seriously? I'm sure if you see enough videos of his supporters celebrating his victory you'd still find something else to say. Can you even use that as an argument in court? Get serious abeg.

The failure to secure 25% in the FCT is the only argument that can be challenged in court,but even that would fail flat on its face at the end of the day. Make Una rest. Go and start preparing for 2027 coz Obi has lost the election. Before he can become number one he needs to first remove Atiku the number 2, and I don't see how he'll even do that.

juman:
Despite all the opposition came together, they could not defeat him.
He has strong support base.

Erdogan is a shrewd politician. He is not a lackey to the west. He is trying to secure turkeys islamist history against his opponents secularism which would inevitably have assimilated turkey into liberal europes liberal identity.

afroniger:
In some ways I see a few parallels in the Turkish elections and the recently concluded elections in Nigeria.

1. Erdogan's rival, kemal, was endorsed by the Kurdish separatist PKK, which ended up working against him as this was exploited by his rivals. This mirrors the separatist ipob's endorsement and support of Peter Obi's candidacy, which made some sections of the country apprehensive about him.

2. Biased polls: The vast majority of opinion polls tipped kemal as the winner of the election, same way Peter Obi was the projected winner by most pre-election polls.

Though the elections have yet to be concluded, but unless something drastic happens, the upcoming runoff is the incumbent Erdogan's to lose at this point.

Turkey election is not yet over. Wait till final result.

ShortBiscuit:


Turkey election is not yet over. Wait till final result.

Erdogan will win run off.