danowena:

Don’t you know some people are plainly silly? Same people that shout he forged a document that the university confirmed?

BOSSkesh:
Very good for the Naira
Gradually we will get it right


Check my signature for free stuffs!!!

Blakjewelry:
we know back then the naira was at a false state but at least it shouldnt have gone above 400 if they had float it back then, I believe these reforms will yield great benefits but again Nigerian politician are fund of spending recklessly when the going is good.

Defending the naira is bad for the economy. I watch some Singaporean politician talked about the time they were facing economic challenges like this, they had to make hard decision to pumping their reserve but they have to put in place measures to make sure some future politicians don't spend what they didn't accrue. Today they are enjoying the Fruit, though I must say the changes come at a very very bad time.

cjfavour:
Blaming emefiele about all these is hog wash and senseless. Emefiele didn't stop subsidy payment without plan nor float the naira.
Stop deceiving yourself.

senatordave1:


Goldman Sachs an international firm with repute is now questionable?

successmatters:
Goldman Sachs are now the people running the exchange rate, after they noticed that the Nigerians in power are illiterates

senatordave1:


Exactly except to the blind and senseless ones.naira was 1900 but has now decreased to 1500.does that not tell you that with more push,it will appreciate to 1000 by Dec

senatordave1:


Exactly except to the blind and senseless ones.naira was 1900 but has now decreased to 1500.does that not tell you that with more push,it will appreciate to 1000 by Dec

emkz:

https://nairametrics.com/2024/03/09/naira-looks-cheap-to-appreciate-to-n1200-1-goldman-sachs/

Ofunaofu:
Tinubu is now contracting questionable international media houses, cash and carry analysts to give the impression that the economic policies imposed by his government are working.

First it was Bloomberg claiming that some phantom billions are pouring in, now some Goldman Sachs analysts saying that naira will appreciate

The Truth is that anything outside returning the Naira to dollar exchange rate to N700/a dollar and 185/liter of PMS where he met it is a total balderdash. A confirmed failure

Tinubu cannot be whitewashed. No opinion of international media house or world economic analyst can change that

Ikpunekenwa:


Which university confirmed it, the confirm. Timon you people twisted but still nobody bought it.

Why did he say if his school stuffs are exposed to atiku that it will cause irreparable damage?
Why that statement...
Una dey disgrace una selves before una even talk.

The hooligan you are quoting said dollar is 1500 to dollar, just like we keep proving you guys wrong, I showed Him the official rate, same thing you guys did when tilumbu was exposed.

GeneralDae:

The problem we have today is that our net reserves are low. For many years, Emiefele was able to hide this fact by not exposing the CBN books fully. So we only knew our Gross reserves at around 37 Billion dollars then but no one knew our net reserves.

With poor net reserves, we had no choice but to devalue as we were only postponing the rainy day. Emiefele probably hoped that the Dangote refinery would come onstream soon to provide the needed FX.

When Asiwaju came on board and he devalued fast, there was only a little hike in interest rate and Tinubu gave the idea that a lower interest rate was more preferable. This may have sent mixed signals to foreign portfolio investors and so from July, they didn't bring in the dollars like they used to. Add to that the revelation of the CBN books as well as the report by JP Morgan that our net reserves were just a mere 3 Billion dollars. This 3 Billion dollars makes sense and shows why we couldn't pay a 7 Billion dollars backlog.

Markets hate uncertainty and so investments continued to reduce. Speculators also now began to suspect the CBN was powerless to defend the naira. Added to that, the CBN was not settled and only had an interim leader. With all of these, the naira was definitely bound to fall further throughout 2023.

All of what Cardoso is doing now, if he had began with them December, maybe the naira would not have gone past 1300. But again, Cardoso is focused on clearing the backlogs and MPC meeting was going to hold so late (in February).

So to answer your question, I would say I agree that it may not have been sustainable.

Ofunaofu:
Tinubu is now contracting questionable international media houses, cash and carry analysts to give the impression that the economic policies imposed by his government are working.

First it was Bloomberg claiming that some phantom billions are pouring in, now some Goldman Sachs analysts saying that naira will appreciate

The Truth is that anything outside returning the Naira to dollar exchange rate to N700/a dollar and 185/liter of PMS where he met it is a total balderdash. A confirmed failure

Tinubu cannot be whitewashed. No opinion of international media house or world economic analyst can change that

Ofunaofu:


Now tell me, does the submissions of Goldman Sachs analysts correlate with the situation on ground

grandstar:


Yes it does.

What the CBN needs to do now is to increase interest rates high enough has it said to start bringing inflation down.

Once the CBN does that, the exchange rate should touch $1-1,200. So they are correct

In addition, I feel more is needed.

The price of petrol needs to once and for all be deregulated. This has been done for diesel, kerosene and cooking gas. If done, this would end petrol subsidy completely and put the fiscal balance sheet in a much better place. It would also spur investment into the downstream sector of oil industry.

The same should be done the price of electricity. This would not only save government money as well but spur investment into that sector which would raise power supply astronomically. I'm sure within 2 years, power supply would be at least 20 houra a day, which would be a phenomenal improvement.

Ofunaofu:


Are you implying that subsidies are being paid on petrol as we speak? If that's the case, it contradicts Tinubu's inauguration day speech when he said, and I quote, "Subsidy is gone."

GeneralDae:

Subsidy was indeed removed in June and July 2023 but then the dollar was at 750. Now it is at 1600, so using today's dollar exchange rate, if you completely remove it again, you may be buying fuel at 1300.

Ofunaofu:


Are you implying that subsidies are being paid on petrol as we speak? If that's the case, it contradicts Tinubu's inauguration day speech when he said, and I quote, "Subsidy is gone."

grandstar:


Please, you are not kids that need to be told everything. I am not meaning it as an insult.

Ask yourself, if the price of rice, beans and other products have increased, how come that of petrol remains the same?

Let me even use a better example. Has the price of diesel, kerosene and especially cooking gas not increased, how come that of petrol has remained the same? At least you buy either cooking gas or kerosene to cook so must be familiar with either of them. They are all derived from crude oil.

Why is price deregulation better than simply subsidy removal?

If the international price of petrol is $1 per litre and the exchange rate is $1-500, and government sells at N600 and says at this price "subsidy is gone", it might be right.

What if tomorrow, the Naira depreciates to $1-N700, and the price for petrol still sells at $1 per litre, when you calculate it, the price is N700 per litre. If the government still sells the petrol at N600, is the subsidy gone or now back? You calculate!

Or let's say the international price of petrol is no longer $1 per litre but now $1.50 per litre. The exchange rate of the Naira is still $1-500, so the price will now be at least $1.50 per litre x 500 which is 750/litre. If the government still wants to sell at N600/litre, is the subsidy gone or now back?.

Whether subsidy is gone or back depends on variables such as the international price of petrol, exchange rate of the Naira and many other factors "at any point in time!"

Remember in 2015, the then PDP led government reduced the price of petrol from N97 per litre to N87.

Why? Because the price of crude oil had fallen from $110/barrel in 2012 to $50 per barrel by 2015. So, at a N87 price, it could not only sell without any subsidy, but make a profit as well.

It is all about the variables.

However, if the price of petrol is deregulated, the government no longer fixes a "no subsidy price" but allows the market to dictate the price. This is what happens with diesel, kerosene and cooking gas. It is the right way to go.

commoditiesnig:

Excellent analysis.