I saw a thread of El-rufai preparing to challenge Tinubu both in traditional courts and in the court of public opinion in order to clear his name of the allegation of being a security risk and for the humiliation he suffered by being dropped by the National Assembly, and something caught my attention. What caught my attention is that the folks who accuse others of chest beating were chest beating that El-rufai is too small to cause any problems for Tinubu and that Tinubu is not Jonathan.

This is why I wanna ask these guys that are chest beating, apart from Southwest, where else can Tinubu count on to have people pour into the streets for his sake?

There was a reason Buhari got away with murder. And this much has been captured by Farouk Kperogi in one of his articles.

Buhari was able to get away with a lot of the atrocities he carried out during his administration because, despite his failures, he still had larger part of the north behind him. To be precise, you wouldn’t have come for Buhari without setting a fire in the whole of Northwest and Northeast that you won’t be able to put out. Even the north central states of Niger and Nasarawa.

Similarly, because Tinubu was looking to succeed Buhari and would not want anything disrupting the equation as it was, there was always fear that an attempt to disrupt Buhari presidency would trigger Tinubu to activate his Southwest structure to pour into the streets just to ensure that his own ambition isn’t jeopardized.

So, in a nutshell, anybody who made any attempt on Buhari’s government would have had 3 regions of Northwest, Northeast and Southwest to contend with in a mass demonstration that could put the country in jeopardy. That was why Buhari got a away with murder and a lot of things he did went unchallenged.

Now, can Tinubu boast of same? Should anything happen to Tinubu today, how many regions will be triggered to stand by him? Is he even sure of his native Southwest? And with Buhari out of power and the uniformity of opinion amongst northerners that he was a failure, how much of goodwill can he control for Tinubu in the north?

To attach faces to the picture we are painting, if you touch Peter Obi today, you would have Southeast, Southsouth and North Central to contend with.

If you touch Atiku today, you would have Northeast and Northwest to contend with.

But if you touch Tinubu, is he even sure of Southwest?

And for those who think Tinubu is protected because he has the armed forces under his command, go and ask Jonathan how it felt to be helpless even with all the armed forces.

Jonathan’s case was even better that he had the Southeast and Southsouth strongly behind him and could still count on some parts of North Central but Tinubu is not even sure of Southwest.

So, Tinubu supporters, where’s the confidence coming from? There’s already general disenchantment with Tinubu in the core north of Northwest and Northeast. He has never been home in the North Central. Southeast is inexistent in his political calculation. And Southsouth is not any different from Southeast.

Should the northern establishment decide to realign with the Southeast and Southsouth bloc as has always been since independence, where else would Tinubu turn to?

Because as things currently stand, if the North and the East come together in 2027, not even rigging will help Tinubu in the 2027 general election. Or how can Tinubu rig in the Northwest, Northeast, North Central, Southsouth and Southeast without triggering a revolution that would consume him?

Penguin is a bird of reason!

The Brown roofarian wakanda

Someone was escaping from a building engulfed in fire, then your question is who did he vote for? How do you call those ones human beings?

~Bello Elrufai

Words on the marble.

,

Helinius has NOT commented yet?

because that Boy lives his life on Nairaland. 🤨

Maybe him the MoiMoi when him Mama dey cook this morning, never Done. :😔😒

Richtaiwo:
[b]

Words on the marble.

I hope Bello will support his father when the time comes because some obidients like penguin2 are already suggesting that Bello's father El Rufai should run along side Peter Obi.

Oga Penguin2 don't forget that Peter Obi won Lagos which is in the South West o.

He also lost Osun to Atiku, which is also in the South West.

INEC

Pit of hell

Muslim Muslim ticket is his base..

Power returning to south is his key

That is the political game

Conduct election 50 million times ... Tinubu will keep flogging the religious catholic bigot ..

Atiku and north has accepted the reality of power coming south and returning north .. though we will always be politically relevant till it returns.

Obi has no south in his pockets .. forget the southeast that rigg him

He lost south south and north central... southwest is a no for him

Don’t even know why this Obi supporters always find it hard to believe reality..

Tinubu has no support base. . .what next?

Frigga13:
Muslim Muslim ticket is his base..

Power returning to south is his key

That is the political game

Conduct election 50 million times ... Tinubu will keep flogging the religious catholic bigot ..

Atiku and north has accepted the reality of power coming south and returning north .. though we will always be politically relevant till it returns.

Obi has no south in his pockets .. forget the southeast that rigg him

He lost south south and north central... southwest is a no for him

Don’t even know why this Obi supporters always find it hard to believe reality..

You used to be more reasonable than this.

You used to speak with facts and commonsense but I don’t know what happened to you.

Not even Tinubu himself would say what you are saying.

All those who doubted Obi before the elections have all hidden their faces in shame but you have refused to enthrone reason but chose to dwell in inanities.

Obi won Abuja

Obi won Nasarawa

Obi won Plateau

Obi lost Benue by just 3k votes.

Obi won Lagos

Obi won Edo

Obi won Cross River

Obi won Delta even when PDP Presidential running mate was from that state and a sitting governor.

Obi won Rivers.

Talking about Southeast would amount to overkill.

Yet you sit here and blab?

You said this on another thread and I ignored you and you came here to say it again.

I would understand if you don’t want Obi to become president for whatever your reason(s) might be, but don’t ever come around my space and be illogical and irrational.

You should know I don’t roll like that

Your analysis is brilliant and I can tell u that,if the next election are set to be free and fair,that guy would not win the election.

People are fed up honestly,leave all those who come here to shout his mandate they stand,they are hungry,frail,sick and gangling like tired Vietnam soldiers.

True,the north central are not in support of him and this has proven to be true in the last elections and not even Wike the FCT minister can salvage them.

oyatz:
Tinubu has no support base. . .what next?

Good you admit it.

What next is that you people are further killing the little chance he has to get new support base and therefore should be ready to see him and Lagos gang of criminals booted out in 2027.

Nice2023:
Your analysis is brilliant and I can tell u that,if the next election are set to be free and fair,that guy would not win the next election.

People are fed up honestly,leave all those who come here to shout his mandate they stand,they are hungry,frail,sick and gangling like tired Vietnam soldiers.

True,the north central are not in support of him and this has proven to be true in the last elections and not even Wike the FCT minister can salvage them.

You don’t get it.

As things stand today, if the north and the east come together, Tinubu won’t even be able to rig the election.

How can he rig in Northwest, Northeast, North Central, Southsouth and Southeast without throwing Nigeria into war?

Frigga13:
Muslim Muslim ticket is his base..

Power returning to south is his key

That is the political game

Conduct election 50 million times ... Tinubu will keep flogging the religious catholic bigot ..

Atiku and north has accepted the reality of power coming south and returning north .. though we will always be politically relevant till it returns.

Obi has no south in his pockets .. forget the southeast that rigg him

He lost south south and north central... southwest is a no for him

Don’t even know why this Obi supporters always find it hard to believe reality..

This thread is all about Tinubu and his support base.

But as usual, Peter Obi must be roped in by minions, Agbadorians, and Bulabans.

@ the bolded

Of course, simply because INEC will jettison the Nigerian constitution, jettison the electoral act, jettison its own electoral guidelines and procedures, shut down the result viewing portal IREV, and conjure up numbers for him to win.

But in a free, fair, and credible electoral process, Peter Obi will beat Tinubu blue-black.

That's the reality you should be referring to, not a flawed reality buccaneering power grabbers engaging in criminal state capture want you to believe

Zxcvbnmghtr:


I hope Bello will support his father when the time comes because some obidients like penguin are already suggesting that his father run along side Peter Obi.

Oga Penguin don't forget that Peter Obi won Lagos which is in the South West o.

He also lost Osun to Atiku.

You can do better than this, can’t you?

What we are talking about is Tinubu’s support base asides Southwest. This is your opportunity to tell Nigerians and the world the other region(s) you can count on should push come to shove.

But no, you are talking you are asking if Bello Elrufai will support his father if he aligns with Obi.

Did you know Tinubu would ever align with Buhari after all the bad things Tinubu said of Buhari’s character?

Well, the point is to get you lots to understand that you are standing on a slippery sandy surface and should not be running your mouth pra pra pra.

The day Nigerians will have enough of your urine dispenser, there will be nobody to save him; not even the armed forces.

I don’t expect you to agree with me; I doubt you possess the mentality capacity to comprehend what I’m saying.

Penguin2:
I saw a thread of El-rufai preparing to challenge Tinubu both in traditional courts and in the court of public opinion in order to clear his name of the allegation of being a security risk and for the humiliation he suffered by being dropped by the National Assembly, and something caught my attention. What caught my attention is that the folks who accuse others of chest beating were chest beating that El-rufai is too small to cause any problems for Tinubu and that Tinubu is not Jonathan.

This is why I wanna ask these guys that are chest beating, apart from Southwest, where else can Tinubu count on to have people pour into the streets for his sake?

There was a reason Buhari got away with murder. And this much has been captured by Farouk Kperogi in one of his articles.

Buhari was able to get away with a lot of the atrocities he carried out during his administration because, despite his failures, he still had larger part of the north behind him. To be precise, you wouldn’t have come for Buhari without setting a fire in the whole of Northwest and Northeast that you won’t be able to put out. Even the north central states of Niger and Nasarawa.

Similarly, because Tinubu was looking to succeed Buhari and would not want anything disrupting the equation as it was, there was always fear that an attempt to disrupt Buhari presidency would trigger Tinubu to activate his Southwest structure to pour into the streets just to ensure that his own ambition isn’t jeopardized.

So, in a nutshell, anybody who made any attempt on Buhari’s government would have had 3 regions of Northwest, Northeast and Southwest to contend with in a mass demonstration that could put the country in jeopardy. That was why Buhari got a away with murder and a lot of things he did went unchallenged.

Now, can Tinubu boast of same? Should anything happen to Tinubu today, how many regions will be triggered to stand by him? Is he even sure of his native Southwest? And with Buhari out of power and the uniformity of opinion amongst northerners that he was a failure, how much of goodwill can he control for Tinubu in the north?

To attach faces to the picture we are painting, if you touch Peter Obi today, you would have Southeast, Southsouth and North Central to contend with.

If you touch Atiku today, you would have Northeast and Northwest to contend with.

But if you touch Tinubu, is he even sure of Southwest?

And for those who think Tinubu is protected because he has the armed forces under his command, go and ask Jonathan how it felt to be helpless even with all the armed forces.

Jonathan’s case was even better that he had the Southeast and Southsouth strongly behind him and could still count on some parts of North Central but Tinubu is not even sure of Southwest.

So, Tinubu supporters, where’s the confidence coming from? There’s already general disenchantment with Tinubu in the core north of Northwest and Northeast. He has never been home in the North Central. Southeast is inexistent in his political calculation. And Southsouth is not any different from Southeast.

Should the northern establishment decide to realign with the Southeast and Southsouth bloc as has always been since independence, where else would Tinubu turn to?

Because as things currently stand, if the North and the East come together in 2027, not even rigging will help Tinubu in the 2027 general election. Or how can Tinubu rig in the Northwest, Northeast, North Central, Southsouth and Southeast without triggering a revolution that would consume him?

Penguin is a bird of reason!

Una too dey overate this obi, how can north central be obi base when he only won two states.

Tinubu won in Niger, kogi, Kwara, and benue.

Obi only support base is S.E the additional votes he was able to muster was a result of the M.M ticket.

You should ask yourself why labour party perform poorly during senate, house of rep and governorship election.

Where he got his votes from

The 2023 election still dey do you guys like film tricks right, wait for 2027 decimation

El Rufai is now the sudden messiah. Chai, abeg make una face trading and leave the politics for those who sabi am

helinues:
Where he got his votes from

The 2023 election still dey do you guys like film tricks right, wait for 2027 decimation

So still jobless helinues?

Helinuesmybaby:


So still jobless helinues?

Stop the years of trolling. What exactly is your problem you this small boy

Shame no even gree catch you with the impersonating moniker.

At night now, you go start composing different scam formats on how someone fell from upstairs that needed money.

Radarada

So El-rufai is you folks new found love.. no more Obi?
El-rufai will only displace Obi with minority support from Northern parts of Kaduna (muslim side) and parts of the South East.

PBAT still has the national spread to complete his 8 years tenure.

Penguin2:

You used to be more reasonable than this.

You used to speak with facts and commonsense but I don’t know what happened to you.

Not even Tinubu himself would say what you are saying.

All those who doubted Obi before the elections have all hidden their faces in shame but you have refused to enthrone reason but chose to dwell in inanities.

Obi won Abuja

Obi won Nasarawa

Obi won Plateau

Obi lost Benue by just 3k votes.

Obi won Lagos

Obi won Edo

Obi won Cross River

Obi won Delta even when PDP Presidential running mate was from that state and a sitting governor.


Talking about Southeast would amount to overkill.

But today, Tinubu is the president of Nigeria

Penguin2:

You can do better than this, can’t you?

What we are talking about is Tinubu’s support base asides Southwest. This is your opportunity to tell Nigerians and the world the other region(s) you can count on should push come to shove.

But no, you are talking you are asking if Bello Elrufai will support his father if he aligns with Obi.

Did you know Tinubu would ever align with Buhari after all the bad things Tinubu said of Buhari’s character?

Well, the point is to get you lots to understand that you are standing on a slippery sandy surface and should not be running your mouth pra pra pra.

The day Nigerians will have enough of your urine dispenser, there will be nobody to save him; not even the armed forces.

I don’t expect you to agree with me; I doubt you possess the mentality capacity to comprehend what I’m saying.

please can you elaborate on this delusion who want to get booted out by 2027?? obi abi his errand master,ATIKU?? is it ipob.ss that can't touch his cloth when he was not in office that want to touch him now that he's the commander in chief?? i know most obidense are daft but this level of your daftness is really terrible. Accept reality so that you dont die of fustration,No vacancy in asorock untill 2031,shetima and wike is your next government. you can only kill yourself if you don't accept the reality.NIgeria has spoken!

helinues:
Where he got his votes from

The 2023 election still dey do you guys like film tricks right, wait for 2027 decimation

In 2027, no cabal to use Emefiele for artificial naira scarcity and the other shenanigans they did just to ensure PBAT doesn't win.
Let these online noisemakers continue to make noise and wail while the master strategists continue to strategize and deliver massive projects to boost their chances at the polls.

flokii:


In 2027, no cabal to use Emefiele for artificial naira scarcity and the other shenanigans they did just to ensure PBAT doesn't win.
Let these online noisemakers continue to make noise and wail while the master strategists continue to strategize and deliver massive projects to boost their chances at the polls.

We have advised them to face their trading and leave politics for those who sabi. Reading their emotional analysis self dey give person goosebumps.

Since 2015, they are not even close of winning any major support, they have written written and written, yet all their analysis are not close to reality.

Isn't it time for them to give it to those who sabi, they won't, they can't as their ego won't let them.

Brutality defeat awaits them in 2027

Chivisee:

please can you elaborate on this delusion who want to get booted out by 2027?? obi abi his errand master,ATIKU?? is it ipob.ss that cant touch his cloth when he was not in office that want to touch him now that hes is the commander in chief?? i know most obidense are daft but this level of your daftness is rerrible. accept reality so that you down die of fustration,no vacancy in asorock untill 2031,and shetima and wike is your next president. you can only kill yourself if you dont accept the reality.NIgeria has spoken

Apart from the Southwest, where else is Tinubu’s support base?

That’s the question.

All this plenty talk is not necessary, just answer the question.

And just a reminder in case your memory is failing you, Wike is no longer in power and won’t be able to write result for Tinubu in Rivers again nor does he have a single goodwill to attract any vote for Tinubu in Southsouth.

Penguin2:

You used to be more reasonable than this.

You used to speak with facts and commonsense but I don’t know what happened to you.

Not even Tinubu himself would say what you are saying.

All those who doubted Obi before the elections have all hidden their faces in shame but you have refused to enthrone reason but chose to dwell in inanities.

Obi won Abuja

Obi won Nasarawa

Obi won Plateau

Obi lost Benue by just 3k votes.

Obi won Lagos

Obi won Edo

Obi won Cross River

Obi won Delta even when PDP Presidential running mate was from that state and a sitting governor.

Obi won Rivers.

Talking about Southeast would amount to overkill.

Yet you sit here and blab?

You said this on another thread and I ignored you and you came here to say it again.

I would understand if you don’t want Obi to become president for whatever your reason(s) might be, but don’t ever come around my space and be illogical and irrational.

You should know I don’t roll like that

The Christian voting bloc, which spans across the SW-NC-SS regions, has been severely weakened due to the Labour Party's (LP) and its candidate's mishandling of post-election crises. Consequently, it would be difficult for the LP to garner significant votes in a presidential election if held in Lagos today, given that it is a predominantly Christian state according to last election results. In my opinion, the LP's actions have left a negative impression on the Christian community, making it challenging for religious leaders and pastors to convince their congregations to support the party again.

Judgementa1:


Una too dey overate this obi, how can north central be obi base when he only won two states.

Tinubu won in Niger, kogi, Kwara, and benue.

Obi only support base is S.E the additional votes he was able to muster was a result of the M.M ticket.

You should ask yourself why labour party perform poorly during senate, house of rep and governorship election.

“The additional votes he got was because of M.M ticket.”

So what? Are you going to change the M.M Ticket now?

Cry till 2031

lionshare:
The Christian voting bloc, which spans across the SW-NC-SS regions, has been severely weakened due to the Labour Party's (LP) and its candidate's mishandling of post-election crises. Consequently, it would be difficult for the LP to garner significant votes in a presidential election if held in Lagos today, given that it is a predominantly Christian state according to last election results. In my opinion, the LP's actions have left a negative impression on the Christian community, making it challenging for religious leaders and pastors to convince their congregations to support the party again.

Was it LP that made Obi popular or it was Obi that made LP popular?

Were the pastors marketing LP (the vehicle) or Obi (the driver)?

Penguin2:

“The additional votes he got was because of M.M ticket.”

So what? Are you going to change the M.M Ticket now?

Nigerian Christian now knows better that the M.M ticket is not a political witch-hunt on them.