awesomeJ:


You have not said anything on the subject.

Someone is willing to pay 480 to buy dollars, you think it's CBN fault how?

I sometimes overpay for things, how will it make any sense to blame anyone for that decision.

the CBN trades dollars with the FG at 379, on the FMDQ at between c. 386, SMIS 386, BDCs at 386, what disparity are you talking about.

Focus on the point here: WHAT WOULD YOU DO BETTER?

How would you sell FX.

speak in specifics!

You are deliberately refusing to get the point.


The CBN is quoting the wrong price. If it were the right price, they will fulfill all demand at that price. Lots of people are locked out of that market.

Also, Emefiele is lying about the parallel market when his CBN has provided more dollars to BDCs than to legitimate importers. You can look up the numbers and you will see that the CBN's input of dollars at weekly auctions to BDCs exceeded CBN's activity at the I&E window.

The parallel market, where it exists, is the TRUE price because that's where you can fulfill the highest demands. If you need dollars to speculate on US stocks for instance, the CBN isn't going to supply you at 389. So how is that the correct price?

We haven't even mentioned the fact that most people who get dollars at the CBN rates are even using their privileged access to arbitrage on the "black market".

As usual, you are being an idealist. Do you even follow the Nigerian economy at all?

emmanuelewumi:



Hope you bought UPDC REIT shares, it is not a JIJO stock it is an investment that you should continue to enjoy the annual dividends.


I know nothing about NNFM, do your due diligence a lot of opportunities if you have the eyes to identify them

I am not buying updc for now, just advised someone with low risk tolerance and knowledge on stocks to buy it.

Thank you for NNFM info Sir.

Ibrahim505:

Those who bought good stocks and hold for life are usually the ones becoming wealthy with stock market.

EXACTLY!

Ibrahim505:

Those who bought good stocks and hold for life are usually the ones becoming wealthy with stock market.

You need to monitor the companies, read their financial reports, be informed about the company's plans and strategies, know if management is growing the earnings and expanding the business, you should have basic knowledge of accounting, finance, economics, arithmetic and business valuation

einsteine:




You are deliberately refusing to get the point.


The CBN is quoting the wrong price. If it were the right price, they will fulfill all demand at that price. Lots of people are locked out of that market.

Also, Emefiele is lying about the parallel market when his CBN has provided more dollars to BDCs than to legitimate importers. You can look up the numbers and you will see that the CBN's input of dollars at weekly auctions to BDCs exceeded CBN's activity at the I&E window.

The parallel market, where it exists, is the TRUE price because that's where you can fulfill the highest demands. If you need dollars to speculate on US stocks for instance, the CBN isn't going to supply you at 389. So how is that the correct price?

We haven't even mentioned the fact that most people who get dollars at the CBN rates are even using their privileged access to arbitrage on the "black market".

As usual, you are being an idealist. Do you even follow the Nigerian economy at all?

What point is there to get?

You make baseless arguments and expect one to get points from them?

Will there not have to first be a point before it can be gotten?

The fact that you expect the currency to crash, doesn't make your opinion right.

I have dollars to sell at 386, you think you're the one to tell me that 386 is the wrong price?

The CBN doesn't value it above that price, so if you like pay 1000 for it, it's your money.

emmanuelewumi:



You need to monitor the companies, read their financial reports, be informed about the company's plans and strategies, management is growing the earnings and expanding the business, you should have basic knowledge of accounting, finance, economics, arithmetic and business valuation

Or follow d path I am following, that is if technically inclined, try to find a pattern by studying past price action. I have spotted a couple that have been profitable. But I am looking for one that will maintain a good ROI in bull and bear times. A good example would be the turtle traders in d USA, for more than 2 decades, they have cashed out from the market by using simple both repetitive strategy, one that has a layed down instruction set for any market condition and so exempting emotions from d game.

einsteine:







Also, Emefiele is lying about the parallel market when his CBN has provided more dollars to BDCs than to legitimate importers. You can look up the numbers and you will see that the CBN's input of dollars at weekly auctions to BDCs exceeded CBN's activity at the I&E window.

This is false, but at least you're now arguing with point. That's an improvement!

Average weekly sales to BDCs is $50m.

Average weekly sales at the I&E window is above $300m.

You should disprove this if you can!

einsteine:




The parallel market, where it exists, is the TRUE price because that's where you can fulfill the highest demands. If you need dollars to speculate on US stocks for instance, the CBN isn't going to supply you at 389. So how is that the correct price?

We haven't even mentioned the fact that most people who get dollars at the CBN rates are even using their privileged access to arbitrage on the "black market".

As usual, you are being an idealist. Do you even follow the Nigerian economy at all?

How can you reasonably say that a tiny market that holds less than 5% should be where price is determined?

So 5% is your own definition of majority?

You think CBN should be the one to supply you dollars with which to speculate on US stocks, and you're not ashamed of your funny reasoning?

You don't need any connections to buy dollars at 386. Go to the bank with your passport and air ticket, and fund your account with about 1.5m, you'll get $4000!

ositadiima1:


Or follow d path I am following, that is if technically inclined, try to find a pattern by studying past price action. I have spotted a couple that have been profitable. But I am looking for one that will maintain a good ROI in bull and bear times. A good example would be the turtle traders in d USA, for more than 2 decades, they have cashed out from the market by using simple both repetitive strategy, one that has a layed down instruction set for any market condition and so exempting emotions from d game.

Good, I am more concerned about the business, earning growth of the business, sustainability of the business, strategies of the business and the business is appropriately priced or selling below its intrinsic value

So I am more interested when i see the stock price of a good business is falling or selling below its intrinsic value, I see it an opportunity to buy a good investment at a discount

Check out an investment of N9 million in United Capital about 7 years ago, the investor has earned a total dividend of N25 million in the last 7 years paid a dividend of N5 million this year and the investment is now currently valued at N47 million

emmanuelewumi:



Possible if you annualize it for some companies and businesses, depending on the growth of the sector and business.

A business can have a 100% increase in profit in a year, Nestle Nigeria has been having a double digits growth in profit for the past 20 years the company increases prices at will and demand will also increase instead of decreasing.

The people invited to invest in MTN Nigeria in 2000, now have their N10 million grown to N4 billion in less than 20 years, earning annual dividend of over N200 million in a year.

So in business and Investment anything can happen, especially if their is a huge demand and growth opportunities for the products or services rendered by the business

Sir, I know how businesses work. Very well sef. I’m talking about NSE here. How many stocks have you bought through the NSE that has given you a CAGR of 15% to 20% returns after holding for 10 to 15 years?

Please let’s not talk about the original investors in MTN and Nestle. Those are different kinds of investors and are the guys that really cash out without unnecessary forces determining the vaIue of their shareholdings (pre-IPO) and then use the IPO event to make more money when they dump their shares to the secondary market investors.

I am talking about ordinary investors that buy shares from the secondary market. Many people that are holding stocks from around 2007/2008 till present have actually not recouped their investments and can slap anyone that tells them to go near the NSE with their hard earned savings.

You would need lots of luck (and time), insider information or be one of the big boys to be consistently making high returns in the NSE. My opinion.

Lazyyouth4u:

Sir, I know how businesses work. Very well sef. I’m talking about NSE here. How many stocks have you bought through the NSE that has given you a CAGR of 15% to 20% returns after holding for 10 to 15 years?

Please let’s not talk about the original investors in MTN and Nestle. Those are different kind of investors and are the guys that really cash out without unnecessary forces determining the vaIue of their shareholdings (pre-IPO) and then use the IPO event to make more money when they dump their shares to the secondary market investors.

I am talking about ordinary investors that buy shares from the secondary market. Many people that are holding stocks from around 2007/2008 till present have actually not recouped their investments and can murder anyone that tells them to go near the NSE with their hard earned savings.

You would need lots of luck (and time), insider information or be one of the big boys to be consistently making returns in the NSE. My opinion.

This hasn't been my personal experience though

Lazyyouth4u:

Sir, I know how businesses work. Very well sef. I’m talking about NSE here. How many stocks have you bought through the NSE that has given you a CAGR of 15% to 20% returns after holding for 10 to 15 years?

Please let’s not talk about the original investors in MTN and Nestle. Those are different kind of investors and are the guys that really cash out without unnecessary forces determining the vaIue of their shareholdings. I am talking about ordinary investors that bought shares from the secondary market. Many people that are holding stocks from around 2007/2008 till present have actually not recouped their investments and can murder anyone that tells them to go near the NSE with their hard earned savings.

Buying stocks is investing in a business, but more people speculate on the stock prices rather than investing in the business

A lot of businesses have given more than 20% annual growth due to the expansion of the business.

Those who bought APR and United capital made more than 30% annualized return.

If you invested N1 million in 200,000 units of GTB shares when they had their IPO in 2001, your shares would have grown to 1,410,000 units in 2020 through bonus shares .valued at almost N50 million excluding the dividends earned in the last 19 years

So what is the annualized growth rate for an investment of N1 million in 2001 which is now worth N50 million in 2020 and also paid a dividend of about N4 million this year

Capitalisation history of GTB

2002 bonus of 1 for 4
2003 bonus of 1 for 5
2004 bonus of 1 for 3
2005 bonus of 1 for 3
2006 bonus of 1 for 4
2007 bonus of 1 for 11
2008 bonus of 1 for 4
2009 bonus of 1 for 4
2010 bonus of 1 for 4

DexterousOne:

This hasn't been my personal experience though

We have more of gamblers and speculators in the market trying to make fast money, but they must lose big time

Investment is a marathon it requires patience, knowledge and the ability to value a business or an enterprise in order to succeed

awesomeJ:


How can you reasonably say that a tiny market that holds less than 5% should be where price is determined?

So 5% is your own definition of majority?

You think CBN should be the one to supply you dollars with which to speculate on US stocks, and you're not ashamed of your funny reasoning?

You don't need any connections to buy dollars at 386. Go to the bank with your passport and air ticket, and fund your account with about 1.5m, you'll get $4000!

Not as easy as that - I travelled last month and got nothing.

Cyberknight:


Not as easy as that - I travelled last month and got nothing.

Your statement is not complete.

I didn't say "Travel and you will get something"

A relevant statement would be:

"I went to my bank to request PTA last month, I gave my passport and flight ticket, but I got nothing"

Did that happen to you?

And note West African countries don't count!

You can't just come and say I traveled and got nothing. Not good!

Cyberknight:


Not as easy as that - I travelled last month and got nothing.

The moment I saw that,na that time i know say the guy is joking.
A whole Manufacturing is shrinking because companies can't access fx to use to import raw materials then one clown for NL dey talk about travel lol.
Why do you think Nigeria enter recession if not for a shrink in GDP because of faltering manufacturing sector?
So what caused the shrink?

emmanuelewumi:


We have more of gamblers and speculators in the market trying to make fast money, but they must lose big time

Investment is a marathon it requires patience, knowledge and the ability to value a business or an enterprise in order to succeed

Words on marble!
Warren Buffet many of us adore today took his time
And when it was time
No looking back
It was ahead ahead

That craze for quick quick
Or like my people will say
Ozugbo ozugbo
Is what many people do to LOSE MONEY

TransAtlanticEx:
The moment I saw that,na that time i know say the guy is joking.
A whole Manufacturing is shrinking because companies can't access fx to use to import raw materials then one clown for NL dey talk about travel lol.
Why do you think Nigeria enter recession if not for a shrink in GDP because of faltering manufacturing sector?
So what caused the shrink?

No need for name calling. If your head works, quote the "clown" directly in an intelligent argument.

awesomeJ:


No need for name calling. If your head works, quote the "clown" directly in an intelligent argument.

You sef like trouble sha

emmanuelewumi:



You sef like trouble sha

Why should any funny ignoramus just open their mouths and say CBN governor is a goat? Explain how, he wouldn't!

.

awesomeJ:


Your statement is not complete.

I didn't say "Travel and you will get something"

A relevant statement would be:

"I went to my bank to request PTA last month, I gave my passport and flight ticket, but I got nothing"

Did that happen to you?

And note West African countries don't count!

You can't just come and say I traveled and got nothing. Not good!

I went to England last month.
I requested PTA from my bank. Had relevant documentation.
Got nothing.

Manwarrior55:


You’re obviously not seeing things that people that invest in NSE see’s

In 2018 the NSE had a value of about NGN15 trillion now its valued 18.1 trillion

While you’re busy being negative about the stocks, the market is actually growing and people are making money low key

There are things that companies like Airtel Africa sees in NSE that you won’t find on Nairaland so instead of being negative about the market maybe you should do more research and start making good money too.

Airtel listed for two reasons. Our government has been pushing the Telcos (MTN and Airtel) for a long time to list here to help strengthen our capital markets. Also, Airtel needed to raise cash from our institutional investors and HNIs to diversify its investor base and pay down some of its huge debts. There is nothing special about Airtel and MTN’s listing in Nigeria that suggests that the NSE is an efficient exchange for secondary market investors. Anyone can list in any market provided there are investors willing to provide money.

I maintain that the guys ‘low key’ making money consistently in this market are people with access to inside information, smart speculators and the big boys/institutional players that hold most of the stock on that exchange. Retail investors that think they can time the market and make quick money will need a lot of luck.

Not many people can afford to tie their money down long term in the market to make decent returns on some stocks. With the current low Tbill and MMF yields, most retail investors are just looking for where to park their Tbill money (and MBA money sef ) and make good short term returns until they make use of the money within a year or two. Many of them will get their fingers burned in the NSE. This is my opinion and you don’t have to agree with me.

Cyberknight:


I went to England last month.
I requested PTA from my bank. Had relevant documentation.
Got nothing.

Got PTA from my bank (STANBIC IBTC) in less than 2 hours in October 2020.

emmasoft:


First thing first - invest in yourself by reading on how investment in stocks works. You can read stuffs here, https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5523 and other pages on stock thread, read materials from sites like nairametrics.com, ask questions, even listening to economic news can add to your knowledge.

N.B: If your risk tolerance is low I will advice you start with low risk investment options like mutual funds particularly VGIF from there you can begin to build your confidence.

While doing the reading and equipping yourself, you need to open a stockbroking account and have a cscs account. You can do that by clicking the link on my signature to have a stock account or any form of investment account with Investment One.

Hello

I was reading in relation to the VGIF, how is it done, can I invest quarterly or annually.

Is there tax on deduction if my income or any charges

Lazyyouth4u:

Airtel listed for two reasons. Our government has been pushing the Telcos (MTN and Airtel) for a long time to list here to help strengthen our capital markets. Also, Airtel needed to raise cash from our institutional investors and HNIs to pay down some of its huge debts. There is nothing special about Airtel and MTN’s listing in Nigeria that suggests that the NSE is an efficient exchange for secondary market investors. Anyone can list in any market provided there are investors willing to provide money.

I maintain that the guys ‘low key’ making money consistently in this market are people with access to inside information, smart speculators and the big boys/institutional players that hold most of the stock on that exchange. Retail investors that think they can time the market and make quick money will need a lot of luck.

Not many people can afford to tie their money down long term in the market to make decent returns on some stocks. With the current low Tbill and MMF yields, most retail investors are just looking for where to park their Tbill money (and MBA money sef ) and make good short term returns until they make use of the money within a year or two. Many of them will get their fingers burned in the NSE. This is my opinion and you don’t have to agree with me.

If you have been reading my comments, I always include ability to value a business or an enterprise, basic knowledge and application of accounting, finance, mathematics and economics will enhance this.

Which can always help an investor to determine the intrinsic value of a business and the shares of the business, with this you are good to go. Leave the noise in the market to gamblers and speculators, while investors will continue to accumulate wonderful businesses selling below their intrinsic values. Most times public offerings are overpriced, you need to be financially literate and understand how to value a business in order to identify this, reason why some investors love the bear market.

Share certificate is not a lottery ticket but evidence of an investor's holdings in a business.

Bjrokenhear003:


Hello

I was reading in relation to the VGIF, how is it done, can I invest quarterly or annually.

Is there tax on deduction if my income or any charges

You can invest daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or annually, it depends on your cash flow. Dividends are distributed twice in a year, I prefer reinvesting my dividends

emmanuelewumi:



If you have been reading my comments, I always include ability to value a business or an enterprise, basic knowledge and application of accounting, finance, mathematics and economics will enhance this.

Which can always help an investor to determine the intrinsic value of a business and the shares of the business, with this you are good to go. Leave the noise in the market to gamblers and speculators, while investors will continue to accumulate wonderful businesses selling below their intrinsic values. Most times public offerings are overpriced, you need to be financially literate and understand how to value a business in order to identify this, reason why some investors love the bear market.

Share certificate is not a lottery ticket but evidence of an investor's holdings in a business.

Boss, you can do all the valuation you want and know all the accounting/Finance in the world but will still struggle in an inefficient stock market like Nigeria’s.

The market price of a company is determined by market forces (demand and supply). When all market participants are using different valuation methods (and assumptions) and arriving at different levels of intrinsic value, it will naturally be reflected in the true equilibrium market price as people demand more of stocks they think are undervalued and sell more of stocks they think are overvalued. This will work in a developed market with diverse institutional and retail investors.

But in a smaller and growing inefficient stock market like Nigeria’s, demand and supply is mainly as a result of insider trading, activities of large traders/portfolio managers (including FPIs), activities of speculators, etc and less of people buying and selling because they have carried out valuation exercises. That’s why you see huge swings when the FPIs come and go and what we have currently as domestic portfolio managers are flocking in with their Tbill money. These are just a couple of examples.

The NSE is growing and we will get there. But we still have a long way to go before we can get to the levels of South Africa and markets in the developed world that are so large and diverse that the true value of shares are determined using DCFs, PE ratios, Dividend Discount models, etc.

I am not saying that these have not worked for a few people in this market. It has (especially for the buy and hold guys as you demonstrated yesterday). But most retail investors are not looking for where to save their money for retirement. They are looking for short term yields that will replicate their Tbill earnings of the past couple of years. They have received their Tbill funds and are going into the NSE to search for short term yields. A few will be lucky and make good returns but many will get their fingers burned.

This is just my opinion and you don’t have to agree with me sir. Also doesn’t mean I don’t invest in the NSE...

NB: when you invest in unlisted companies (like PE firms do), you have better control of the management of these companies and the value of your investments are not determined by external market forces other than those that affect the companies that you have invested in. That’s an entirely different ball game.

Lazyyouth4u:

Boss, you can do all the valuation you want and know all the accounting/Finance in the world but will still struggle in an inefficient stock market like Nigeria’s.

The market price of a company is determined by market forces (demand and supply). When all market participants are using different valuation methods (and assumptions) and arriving at different levels of intrinsic value, it will naturally be reflected in the true equilibrium market price as people demand more of stocks they think are undervalued and sell more of stocks they think are overvalued. This will work in a developed market with diverse institutional and retail investors.

But in a smaller and growing stock market, demand and supply is mainly as a result of insider trading, activities of large traders/portfolio managers (including FPIs), activities of speculators, etc and less of people buying and selling because they have carried out valuation exercises. That’s why you see huge swings when the FPIs come and go. And this is just one example.

The NSE is growing and we will get there. But we still have a long way to go before we can get to the levels of Egypt/South Africa and markets in the developed world that are so large and diverse that the true value of shares are determined using DCFs, PE ratios, Dividend Discount models, etc.

I am not saying that these have not worked for a few people in this market. It has (especially for the buy and hold guys as you demonstrated yesterday). But most retail investors are not looking for where to save their money for retirement. They are looking for short term yields that will replicate their Tbill earnings of the past couple of years. They have received their Tbill money and are going into the NSE to search for these short term yields. A few will be lucky and make good returns but many will get their fingers burned.

This is just my opinion and you don’t have to agree with me sir. Also doesn’t mean I don’t invest in the NSE...

NB: when you invest in unlisted companies (like PE firms do), you have better control of the management of these companies and the value of your investments are not determined by external market forces other than those that affect the companies that you have invested in. That’s an entirely different ball game.

Capital market is not for the short term, money market is the right place for short term Investments.

Short term returns in the capital market is an aberration and not the norms, trying to time the market is an exercise in futulity.


Once in a while some special situations can happen eg those who bought Diamond bank at 80k before Access bank showed interest in buying the bank the share price rose to over N6.00 in a year this happened last year or there about.

When Dangote bought back Dangote Flour from Tiger Foods of South Africa, the share price moved from less than N1.00 to almost N3.00. Few months after Olams put a price of N24.00 on each shares of Dangote Flour. Those who held on from 80k to N24.00 made good money in less than 30months. I couldn't wait till N24.00, was able to sell at N17.

Aliko Dangote cashed out over N120 billion from the transaction.


So tell me why someone offered to buy a stock that was priced at 80k for N24? Olams is not stupid, they are smart Indian businessmen.

The stock market is ruled by greed and fear, ruled by fear in a bear market and greed in a bull Market.

When ruled by fear a stock with an intrinsic value of N2.00 can be priced 50k in the market, when ruled by greed a stock of 50k can be priced N2.00. Ability to identify this anomaly is key if you are a value investor.

Zenith bank currently has an equity of over N1 Trillion, made a profit of over N200 billion last year has about N6 Trillion as deposits and will do better in 2020, but currently has a market capitalisation of less than N800 billion on the stock exchange, was even valued in the market for N330 billion in March 2020 at the height of the pandemic. Those who had the cash flow and resources to buy at that time will be enjoying a dividend yield of 28% and capital appreciation of over 100%


There is a whole lot of difference between the noise in the market, demand and supply for a stock on the exchange and the management, growth and profitability of the company.

A dead company, a company making losses, with poor fundamentals can enjoy positive market sentiment and appreciate in price, but such appreciation will definitely evaporate as we see with many penny stocks.

While the stock price of a growing and well managed company can fall or stagnant, but at the right time those who keyed in when market sentiment was not in favour of this company can make 5 to 10 baggers when market sentiment changes

emmanuelewumi:



You can invest daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or annually, it depends on your cash flow. Dividends are distributed twice in a year, I prefer reinvesting my dividends

Very correct Sir.
In fact that reinvesting option always bring out the beauty of compounding. It gives good feelings!

emmanuelewumi:



If you have been reading my comments, I always include ability to value a business or an enterprise, basic knowledge and application of accounting, finance, mathematics and economics will enhance this.

Which can always help an investor to determine the intrinsic value of a business and the shares of the business, with this you are good to go. Leave the noise in the market to gamblers and speculators, while investors will continue to accumulate wonderful businesses selling below their intrinsic values. Most times public offerings are overpriced, you need to be financially literate and understand how to value a business in order to identify this, reason why some investors love the bear market.

Share certificate is not a lottery ticket but evidence of an investor's holdings in a business.

Interesting discussion
So for those willing to invest long term, which share class should they focus on

Bakosokoto:

Interesting discussion
So for those willing to invest long term, which share class should they focus on

Get in touch with your financial adviser, buy mutual funds or invest in your financial and economic education. I don't give stock recommendations, but once in a while from my writings you should be able to decode somethings