thanks aylala2002 for the analysis,

From your post, it seems the insurance stocks are sort of hot cake for the year 2008 til Dec. Is it reasonable to go for 2000units of LASACO & UNIC and 1000 of Sovereign Insurance with a Dec 2008 cashout plan. What would you suggest?

[b][b]hi AY,
could you kindly shed some light on the second paragraph of your last post (which am replying to). i didnt quite get this part ,

.''The while 75% in excess of the oversubscribed portion would the alloted as a supplementary allotment.''
cheers.
i also bought just 15, 000 units of dangote flour, and i hear money would be returned to peeps who bought, cos it was massively oversubscribed. have u any news on this, if indeed its true. ? like how money would be returned, when and maybe what fraction of it, etc

i think i hav just [color=#770077]learned one important lesson in this stock purchase thing, that is buying multiple times in smaller amounts , in (trusted) members of yr family's names, then transferring them to your account, by cross trading, etc. hmnn[/color][/b][/b]

hi BJluv, i guess its just us here online. am gtting ready to snap up some insurance shares,, law &union and lasaco are on my radar, but should be able to move in by end of dec /very early jan. am hoping with the expected lull in market activities for the christmas festive season, prices might drop .

true that lomah,

thinking i should hit NSE around Dec/Jan then try to drop them off around Oct-Dec '08 depending on the market, what are u doing up late? watching naija stocks?

not really. just back from work (quite late today) and am doing abit of surfing b4 going to bed. my first BANK has started to nose dive , coupled with gists that they may return a large chunk of monies back to pple who bought. i bought 27,550 shares. even dangite , may return, i bought their shares too. its quite funny. am a new investor too, started wit that first bank PO THIS YEAR. you know when dangote flour will be listed for trading on the NSE?

what are u doing up late too. waiting for AYlala?? lol

kool, new on the NSE scence too---have always prefered my things over there in Europe. Will be coming in with the Bagco and Zenith _{[not yet out]} and some other insurance stocks for now and be watching how naija plays dem ball. Dont know a word about dangote flour. I remeber I was told to get Dangote sugar back in 2006 if I remebered right and my answer was, "No ay for investment in naija, dont trust dem naija boys like that" But I am now trying it out to see how it unfolds,

Well I am at it now earning my own sheddar so I think I should be awake for now

folks dont overlook Costain and Nigerian-German, those are my top 2 shares in my portfolio.
With Costain, I'll be using the rights offer and buying more during PO, and I'll be selling some post TS
Nigerian-German is just an exceptional company, got in at N16, went up to N26 a week ago or so, now its N25, if ever it drops to N20 or even N21, I'll get more!

I've my bank stocks, but these 2 companies given their strong level entrepreneurial management, low corporate debt-equity ratio and their unique industries. Nig-German is following a high-tight flag pattern which is rare, so I'm expecting at least a 200% increase in the next couple mths, based on other stocks that have followed this pattern. Wish I got more than I did.
Shoreline Energy has really infused energy into Costain and I know in 2008 once they get their oil gas sector intact, it can only get better

FYI, just my own opinion said in faith, I'll let u know once it becomes my reality

@AY,,,
Wat would u say about international energy insurance, Cous would probably go for it b4 d week runs out but i will need ur advice,
Thanks,

intruder!!!!

@AYLALA

The advice on GDR looks stiff, do you have further insights or reasons for advising against buying GDR's listed or un-listed. As I see the Diamond Bank GDR as a buy. It will most likely go at a 10% discount and this gives a very nice entry price of about N 16.5 Also the PE at this price is relatively low (current / projected PE of 22 / 18) compared to other banking sector stocks.
Also don't forget the good side of the GDR is your broker can tell you if you are going to get what you are intending to buy before you buy. And the Certificates come very fast. (Based on GTB GDR experience)

HI PEOPLE!

Today's Market Market Summary
The bears besieged the Nigerian Equities Market today with the ASI closing lower by 12 basis points to stand at 54,222.60 points from 54,285.22 points in the last trading session while the Market Capitalisation also closed lower by 0.12% to stand at N9.00 trillion from N9.01 trillion in the previous trading session. Today’s top 5 trades were recorded in the banking and insurance sub-sectors with two banking stocks and three insurance stocks on the list. Intenegins continued its impressive run on the activity chart as the most active stock with a traded volume of about 76 million units of shares worth N151 million exchanged hands in 783 transactions. Market hear-say has it that the stock may go on a FULL technical suspension anytime soon due to a share reconstruction exercise. The shares outstanding (which currently stand at 16.5 billion) is the highest in the industry and the second highest in the entire market, just behind Ecobank with shares outstanding in excess of 21 billion. The insurance stock opened today’s session at a price of N2.04 from the previous closing price of N1.96, the opening price of N2.04 could not be sustained as it later dropped to finally close the trading session at N1.97 gaining a paltry N0.01 in the process. Other stocks on the top 5 trades were Access, NEM, Firstinland and Equityasur. Please find attached today’s full pricelist.


INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Asian Stocks Decline for First Time in Four Days as Rio Slips Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days on renewed concern that economic growth is slowing in the U.S., the region's largest export market. Rio Tinto Group and Nippon Mining Holdings Inc., Japan's largest copper producer, slipped after a report showed U.S. manufacturing expanded in November at the slowest pace in 10 months, raising speculation that raw-materials demand will wane. JFE Holdings Inc. led declines by steelmakers. ``It's difficult to be bullish at the moment with the U.S. economy looking more like it's headed for a recession than a slowdown,'' said Toshio Konishi, who helps oversee $4.3 billion at Polar Capital Partners in Tokyo. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent to 161.84 as of 3:18 p.m. in Tokyo, snapping a three-day, 3.6 percent rally. A measure of raw-materials producers had the second biggest drop among the benchmark's 10 industry groups. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 1 percent. About half of Asia's key stock indexes fell. China's CSI 300 Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed as Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., which trades in both markets, won regulatory approval to invest more funds abroad. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has dropped 6.1 percent from its Nov. 1 record amid speculation rising losses tied to investments in U.S. subprime mortgages will slow growth in the world's largest economy. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said yesterday financial conditions and consumer spending deteriorated more than she expected.

have a nice day!

Babs, its only logical to avoid a dollar denominated security when the dollar is currently nose-diving as convertibility (into the local shares) may short-change you. Also remember that we only have a reference price for now, the closure bid price will eventually determine if the GDR is a worthwhile investment. you may be lucky on the long run. As for me, count me out!

SEC needs to work on fixing the prices of GDRs just like all other modes of share offering. That will give us room to project its price movements post listing, Abi? Someone pls bail me out,

AYLALA, I agree there may be short changing in the pricing. I still wonder why GDR's. Only considering it as my Broker is marketing it and they did a good job with GTB (Final Price N28.5 per equivalent Share). The other goodside is I will not have returned money like FirstBank and the last Dangote offer (which is also a short-changing). Good to see GTB is on your list.

Agree with you Niger Insurance is a good buy. I am still analyzing the rest. Buying it may be a better bet than all the PO's / GDR. You get what you buy straight away no waiting for verification. And it may really result in more wealth once their released funds drive down the PE in 2008 (may end 2007 with PE of 25).

Hi Aylala,

In one of your write-ups, you stated that it's always better to buy shares through public offers then through  secondary market. Could you shed more light on this because I strongly disagree with you on this issue.

Peace.

Hello,

I have been following the following:

REDSTAREX and CRUSADER lately and tomorrow I intend to buy. which of this 2 will be most favourable.

@aylala2002
please when do you think it's the best time to expect the First bank share Certificate? And again, I gave my stockbroker all the money I have been saving for the past 2 years to buy me First bank shares on the secondary market. Do you think I made a right decision by doing that??

Good day all,

Concerning POs, I think I would prefer to take the advantage of all the good POs in the market (esp Zenith and PHB no more). By mid- month to year end, we might start taking position on the secondary market, the market outlook will definitely determine where to put ma maney. people who rule out POs may be market speculators. With share certificates on the verge of fazing out, I tell you POs will gain more ground, although the recent issue of returning monies is already diverting people's attention away from POs.

I wont buy First bank on the floor right about now. Share certificates may come in as from january (usually 2 weeks after allotment, but factor in the naija issue). My other broda, please go for Crusader, Soveriegns, Custodian, Cornerstone (recently recieved N4bn escrow proceeds) , Lasaco,

thank you

hello all,

please what is happenning to the skye shelter fund?

Those skye shelter people are fraudsters, I regret having anything to do with them.

pls who knows if aiico has alloted their bonuses to investors and also the first bank certificates including bonus. thanks

Talking about stocks that will get you rich in 2008, I'll urge everyone to key into the current Zenith Bank Plc Public Offer and Rights Issues respectively. This is a gold mine.

Hola at ur boy for more info.

Bosah (01-8771123)

kudos to you AYLALA

more of the analysis.

i think u can make it more fundamental by giving us list of underpriced stocks.

my first time visiting this thread,
aylala, as accurate as always
on insurance, also watch out for unic and law union and rock.
good luck to yall

I cant tell you how happy i am to key into this forum. I have been looking for who to advice on what stocks to buy for the next year. Though i have some but i always base my judgment on the surface. Aylala you're too much.

But talking about IPO, i got to realized one thing, after the IPO, the technical suspension will be lifted and the price will start to jump up hence one will be happy but when it is about for certificate to come out you start experiencing downfall in the price of stocks. I have tried to study the market for sometime now. For instance look at Japaul, try and mark its price now and compare it to when is about some week for certificate to come out. Aylala i dont thing IPO is good for short time investments. Or wot do u think?

Happy Christmas!

All,

Welcome '08

Dear ALL,
It's good to speculate on stocks,but no body can be as accurate as The Holy Spirit.All Christians on this thread should note that.That's my candid advise.A few examples have thought me to depend on the unction of the Holy Spirit before I put my money down on any stock,no matter what is being said in it's favour.So always pray over your trades.

I just thought I should remind us of that.The Holy Spirit never fails.Let's learn to depend more on Him,than any equity fundamentals or technicalities.Someone,once said,on this site,that they give him "Headaches"

Happy investing in 2008!

@Octupus
so we have to trade without analysis?
why not have some panadol (panadol make u no vex for using ur name)
God only help those who help themself.so do reaserch b/4 u buy.

God works wonders in the stock market, but only after you have done your own, and remember to pay your tithe!

Can somebody share light on the rise of oil company share and the risk attached to this sporadic increase

I am contemplating about investing in JAPAULOIL.
I would appreciate expert Reviews regarding Japauloil.

hello my people, long time no hear!

For ma people dreaming of Oil stocks, they may take the risk, since high risk could fetch high return. Oando has alredy surpassed my forcast price, Afroil needs to release an interim result to convince me that they should be trading near the n10 mark Japaul Oil is a MUST BUY ALL for long - term investors since those of us who bought the hybrid offer will surely sell once they credit our CSCS which should take the theorectial ex-right price lowwer than what it is tarding at currently. Eterna Oil is a HOLD (speculative). the persistent surge in oil prices globally may be responsible for these price rally in the Oil sector, notting more.

For 2008 the Nigerian Equities Market Will Sustain Upward Trajectory: Owing to the current bullish sentiments prevailing on the NSE, we expect the market to maintain an upward trajectory in the coming 6 months, spurred on by strong corporate earnings. The Central Bank Governor recently stated his intentions to set limits on foreign equity holdings in Nigerian banks. It remains to be seen whether this development will temper interest in the banking sector going forward. For the 1st half of the year, we foresee a growth in excess of 25% for the Nigerian Equities Market owing to an anticipated growth in the GDP by 8%. Funds from banks’ excess shareholders’ funds, over N80 billion released insurance funds, N250 billion returned monies from FBN oversubscribed hybrid offer, pension funds and inflow of foreign hedge funds should drive market indices to new highs in 2008.


Please find attached my recommended stocks for the first - half year of 2008. By God's Grace, we shall all make clean sweatless money this year!

My caveat still stands. BUYERs BEWARE!!!