₦airaland Forum

Akpakomiza2:
I understand but if it doesn't lead to victory, it hasn't rubbed

Me and you know that what's keeping Seyi candidate in guber discussion is Seyi himself
Alli,Folarin,Buhari,Adelabu,Oriyomi is more popular than this guy
Wait self, what's ur grouse with Seyi ?
Why do you want him to fail?

Akpakomiza2:
A popular governor cannot install an unpopular candidate especially in the south west. The SW is the last place one can do imposition. Even Fayose could not. Seyi has to look for a better candidate

This man
I'm not saying his candidate would win na
All I said is that Makinde influence would rub on Adekanbi. Simple.

Akpakomiza2:
It will only during the presidential/ nass assembly polls not Guber. Besides, Seyi isn't as popular as kwankwaso, you just can't compare

At least it will increase his party visibility and acceptance,the ripples of which will spiral to the Guber election

Akpakomiza2:
Votes is not being splitted. Obi and atiku will still lose woefully in oyo

Seyi playing RMK politics of 23
Being on the presidential election will help his succession plan.

Akpakomiza2:
You are right. Without Obi, ADC is dead in SE. The makinde faction won't do much as Bala has defected and they don't have that push and force Wike faction has. Is Amechi is running mate, they can get 25% in rivers and nothing more...
Atiku won three southern states in 2023 and these was because they had PDP governors. ADC is far weaker than pdp of 2024

Atiku winning 3 SS is a pointer that Tinubu can even win the SS
There's still a good fraction of PDP structure up north,Kwara,Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina,Taraba mostly aligned with Wike group. The realization just hit now apart from Makinde himself there's no heavyweight in his group, except for Jang
The results will still go regionally
Only Tinubu would get substantial votes in all region (except SE)

Akpakomiza2:
You are largely right

Weren't Obi and Tinubu on the ballot when Atiku polled those votes in the south
PDP faction under Turaki aren't in support of Tinubu, and Adc seems like an offshoot from PDP faction aligned with Makinde in the south
While I have reservations with your analysis,you did good
Adc is structureless in Bayelsea
Akwa Ibom,Sen. John can't really pull much
I think he was the sole reason why Kwankwanso got 7k votes in 2023,his highest in the SS
Only Amaechi can deliver maybe 15-20%
SE,I think you underated ADC showing in Abia and inflated it too much in Enugu
As things stand now, there's no pathway for the opposition

angelboy01:
That guys too greedy with that his commando face. I'm glad with the recent happenings. Let him eat ADC.

A divided opposition benefits Tinubu
You guys are playing into his hands

@Fergie001

What's your take on yesterday's federal high court judgement on ADC in relation to the SC ruling?

Who assumes the chairman seat?

AMINDA:
Even if he doesn't, he will get the highest margin out of all four, thereby throwing the election into a run-off between him and first runner-up where a simple majority vote will now decide. The numbers are on the side of Atiku and numbers don't lie.

See a divided opposition cannot win
Even a balkanized south with Gej,Obi and Tinubu and only Atiku as a northern candidate will still favor Tinubu.
Tinubu is the only candidate who is assured of support across north and south divide
Allies like Wamakko,Bagudu can deliver their state or an outright 25% if things go extreme south
Even the north, AA will encounter hurdles...He won sokoto with barely 3k votes,kebbi with around 38k votes, Katsina with mere 6k votes,lost Zamfara,Jigawa,and could not even muster 25%in Kano.Not to mention his poor showing in the north central which has only been on a decline
See I know u would save that time has changed, that the narrative is different from 2023 but I want you to answer confidently, which state in the north can AA get 70%votes now?
If Obi contestes,he will win over christian votes even down to Atiku home state
Kwara has always been APC to win
There's even challenges posed by Fintiri and Bala for Atiku
It's not yet uhuru for AA to galvanize the north

Akpakomiza2:
You lie. Atiku won kaduna so it's no news. Southern kaduna will vote tinubu

Sk will be divided..
If Obi runs with Atiku,then it becomes harder for Tinubu
This Inuwa of a guy lost his own unit to AA
He has no clout
Atiku has Gombe as his surest bet in NE after Adamawa.

Akpakomiza2:
Atiku failure will start from his hometown

You know it can't be true
What Atiku polled in Adamawa and Fintiri votes in his subsequent Guber should give you an inkling
What I don't like about Atiku is the way he ditches governors for past Guber candidate
Fintiri for Aisha
Bala for Sadique
Adeleke for Aregbesola
Consolidating this power bloc should have been the right thing to do.
Sometimes AA cut as a haughty man

fergie001:
Deal signed
Discussions ongoing for months
Both parties already reached agreement
Governorship Candidate of the ADC
Contract papers signed
Deal done
Here we go

It will amount to nothing
That Agege guy can only win 4 lga
E no pass am

helinues:
Atiku resigning, Obi discreetly work on his people to back him. Hahahaha

You didn't even bother to listen to your own Nollywood movie story. Why can't you guys be realistic with yourself?

I said risky concessions which have the tendency to boomerang
Sacrifices has to be made
It might be worth the risk
And it's realistic too if both party agree

helinues:
You see, Atiku and Obi ticket can't sell in 2027. The ambitious politicians from North eyeing 2031 election would rather allow president Tinubu to complete his second term than disrupt the arrangements.

Atiku, a northerner as president in 2027 can't sell in Southern Nigeria. I don't know about South East oo but you see both South West and South South can never buy that story.

The NC people, whether the coalition is presenting a candidate from South or North, they are not going to buy the story as president Tinubu's governance is not that bad to them, moreover the pampering in terms of projects and developments

Ambitious politicians from the north you say
Remember Tinubu can only endorse one so what will happen to the others?
The deal is Atiku/Obi, with Atiku resigning, while Obi discreetly work on his people to back him
That way he won't lose all of the Obidients movement vote
NC,the margins of victory in this zone from 2019 is not up to 500k so it'll always be a battleground

Akpakomiza2:
Long time. The best way to win APC is to field Jonathan goodluck

Goodluck...no
The one whose ambition is not worth the blood of Nigerians won't have the liver to outwit the president going by the dirty doings that litters Nigeria political space
An Obi ticket would be great but how will he get North votes?
SS is swaying to Tinubu
SW is locked down
Half of North Central too
If they go by my proposition at least they'll win SE/ NE, battle NW with APC .

This is a well thought strategy I think might work for ADC in it's quest to plant it's flag in Aso Rock if all parties involved agree to make this concession, which would demand some costly sacrifice, while not downplaying the chance of this concessional strategy to go wrong

Since Atiku and Obi are the only ones in the coalition who have at least quarter a chance to win the presidential election in 2027,an Atiku/Obi ticket might suffice with some risky tweaks

Obi and his Obidients group has spoken that is the presidency or nothing
Atiku too is vying for a last shot...Clash of interest abounds and the north- south unwritten rotation is another albatross on Atiku's aspiration

How to resolve this?
Let Atiku and Obi run together as presidential candidate and VP respectively but with this tweak
Atiku and Obi should sign a written contract binding on both party ( Only them should know of this) that Atiku will resign six months or a year into their presidency, handing power to Obi
Atiku should keep this arrangement away from his northern cliche
Obi should discreetly tell his kinsmen ( trusted one though) so as to checkmate voters apathy in SE
The scenario will be that while Atiku galvanize the north,the east will vote Obi indirectly through Atiku as Obi get to rule for 3years max if eventually they win ( Obi himself said that if the present administration can destroy Nigeria in 2years,then 2years should be enough to fix the country,going by this I think 3years will be enough for Obi to prove himself)

It have the tendency to be a win win situation
Since the core north(aside Christian dominated areas won't vote Obi) and the south won't vote Atiku.

senatordave1:
APC is doing well in Orhiomnwon and Egor...don't know for Ikpoba but it should be like Oredo

No prob sha
PDP tried in Etsako West ward 12 specifically

senatordave1:
Asue is doing well in igueben

They are expected to win Igueben na
I'm waiting for the Etsakos.Oredo,Egor and Ikopba Okha loose guard

senatordave1:
Igbinedion failed them

Edo South failed to turn up today...
APC is offering a good fight in Benin.. It's getting clearer
Unless PDP tries well in the north o ti lol.

@Garfield1
I foresee a 11/7 lga win for either of APC/PDP
APC: Either one of Orhionmwon/Uhunmonde, The two Ovia's or at worse lose Ovia SW.
Etsako, marginally win or a 50% win in Akoko Edo and one of the Owan with a possibility to flip Owan West.
In the central,I think APC will win Esan Central.Esan North East a 50/50 and the rest lgas to PDP.

senatordave1:
It is not just about orbih but even anslem ojezua gave APC a torrid time.it will be difficult for obaseki to deliver asue singlehandedly without support from pdp nwc,orbih,shuaibu etc...
Edo is not really that important in 2027.i don't see pdp fielding someone else apart from wike or atiku nor mounting a serious challenge

Ok
For now though the PDP NWC played to Obaseki tone as regards the primary.

Okada691:
The Binis want Asue Ighodalo, you can take that to the Bank, the man too get brain

Ok
Hope they turnout will be something commendable.

senatordave1:
Lp should have given to imansusgbon,prince iseghohi or hon sergius ogun.apc needs oshiomhole but if he isn't ready,they can do without him..
When orbih was in pdp,pdp usually win presidential and nass polls.he gave APC a bloody nose.as it stands,the binis are indifferent though choice of running mate will matter...

I'm not sure LP would win no matter who they fields from among those you mentioned
Orbih belongs to Etsako where Oshiomole have always led...did the PDP win anything in Etsako?
I will be following keenly the run in to the general election.
Obaseki/PDP must not lose...2027 on the horizon.

Asue v Monday
Akpata of LP is not in the race to win.
APC needs Oshiomole more than even air if they are going to win.
PDP needs the renegades group lead by Orbih and co... though I'm yet to see Orbih strength as he has never won his lga all through his political sojourn for PDP.
Who the Binis want would have a slender edge

garfield1:
APC is gradually taking over delta.after making inroads to ijaw side,delta north is next.the death of Cairo ojougboh is a great loss but people like hon osanebi,Doris uboh must do more

You use two elections to declare apc gradually taking over Delta...
Don't forget pdp narrowly won Ethiope west and Burutu (the two lga to hold the rerun) at the guber but lost the HoAs there. It's a personality thing not just APC.
If anyone could invade delta north,it will be labour.

garfield1:
Long time bro,I missed you shockingly.you went awol.anyways,chikun went shockingly to apc,a place that usually gives pdp it's highest votes alongside zangon kataf while igabi and kudan surprisingly went pdp although isa ashiru is from kudan.i felt chikun should have made Lp second choice.

The biggest shocker is APC winning burutu assembly rerun and in Ethiopia west(ibori's handwork)..
I sent you a mail

Well it is what it is
Apc wining delta rerun was not a shocker to me because they led before the rerun ( the thing not expected was Alapala wining the rerun with about 50% )
Was the election for lavun state constituency a rerun or by election?

garfield1:
Cc tutudesz, cajal,aiel123

Previous winners almost won all except for Chikun which was somehow surprising for Apc to win with absolute majority.

garfield1:
Obaseki does not have what it takes to impose somebody.he won because of sympathy votes and division in apc.you saw how the presidential poll went.his region Edo south is heavily urbanized and hardest place to rig.the voters there are stubborn and independent minded.he does not have federal power.pdp self does not have any strong candidate in central compared to apc.the only place that can be rigged are Edo central which will be divided and Edo north which is under oshiomhole.he should simply serve out his tenure and go to avoid disgrace

Edo south had churned out huge votes before for Obaseki (Oredo and Ikpoba Okha)
Results can be inflated. Also the presidential election has it's own dynamics that might not align with guber elections. Lp won Lagos for presidential but lost it in guber.Same with Delta,Gombe,Yobe, Katsina,Kebbi,Oyo.
Don't forget that Obaseki had his way during the HOAs election.
One thing is that Edo and the west has been difficult to rig very shamelessly but results can be padded and inflated.

goggle48:
Nepa don off light,fuel #700 school students going home in agbor delta state.

This is true. Even schools in owa too.

garfield1:
Obaseki cannot impose ighodalo.

But Bello can install Ododo?
These off cycle elections have strayed away from the gains of the general elections.
Ondo and Edo is another chance for inec. If not na to just write results go play. Turn out an unreasonable 98% voters turnout and the figures will count.

garfield1:
He acted late

Even if he acted earlier,there was no way he would have won. The rec and police didn't sing to his tone.
APC and senseless rigging are siamese twins.. Nembe and Brass results are sure testament to this. If the RO had sang to Sylva,he would have won with cooked and imaginary votes.
Hope Obaseki and PDP saw the Kogi and Imo template. Rig brazenly, blindly... heaven won't fall. Let the loser go to court. They should make sure they don't act soft and 'kind'.

garfield1:
Okowa has gone quiet

Which other former governor that recently handed over is still active aside Wike and Ganduje?
Let Okowa be.