₦airaland Forum

In fact he has already won. He will win in all the geopolitical zones by a wide margin. The greatest man Nigeria ever had

No doubt Obi will get above 90% in Katsina. In fact 100%!

Their house not in order but they are dreaming of the highest seat .

Oga Dele, I know you know but let me remind you:
Only Tinubu can get the overall HIGHEST VOTES from across the country and still get the 25% from at least 24 states and Abj. In 5 weeks time, boys will be separated from men.

Funny Punch. If PMB didn't grace the occasion you will wail, now that he did and proceeded to Lagos for official assignment you are still wailing. Anyway, the crowd is enough a reply to you.
For the belligerent folks, let me remind you that to become our president, you must:
*Get the overall HIGHEST votes from the country
*Get at least 25% from at least 24 states and Abj.
Bye.

Oga as things are, Tinubu is the candidate to beat. I am sure you know all the analyses and facts.

No need to worry yourself. It is as simple as these:
*Get the overall HIGHEST votes across the nation.
* Get a minimum of 25% in 24 states and Abj.
*Be declared winner by Prof Yakubu in 5 weeks time.
If you honestly believe your candidate cannot achieve these feats, continue to waste your energy and time and emotion.

A

SenatePresdo:
Muslims wants to make sure no Christian ever smells the top seat in Nigeria.

But Muslim votes up north would be divided by 3 contestants.

We Christians are not second class citizens of this country.

Say No to Muslim-Muslim Ticket.

This is Nigeria, not Turkey.
What happened in Turkey won't happen in Nigeria.

It is a very simple calculation: Get the overall highest votes and get 25% from at least 24 states and Abuja. Just get that and don't bring Christianity into this.

W

God1000:
Lol, mine is more than that, Mr Obi will get at least a thousand votes from me and my loved ones

Lol! Most of them would rather watch premier league or Nollywood instead.

[quote author= post=120281871]Let watch and see, few weeks to go[/quote]Thank you. Politics without bitterness.

[quote author= post=120280775]All these empty political analysts, Otondo I guess you are the new INEC Chairman , empty brain you said Borno and Yobe will cancel Southeast votes, may I remind you that Anambra state has more registered voters than Borno state, Ebonyi which is the least in registered voters is more than Yobe

Anambra has 2.7 million registered voters
Borno is 2.5 Million
Ebonyi is 1.6 million
Yobe is 1.5
Not to talk of other eastern states, let me also remind you that Atiku will win in those states, Northeast prefer president than VP put that in you empty brain
[/quote]The same Anambra gave Soludo just above 120k votes to win a gubernatorial seat. Anyway, God willing I will tag you after your IPOB candidate bites the dust next month. Enjoy your Sunday, my man.

To win the presidency, not only a simple majority is required but 25% of the votes in at least 24 states and the FCT.
*In the 7 states of the NW, Obi may only get that in Kaduna State. The remaining 6 are out of his reach.
*In the NE, he may only get that in Taraba, 5 definitely out of his reach.
*In the NC, he could get that in Benue,
Nasarawa and Plateau. Kwara, Kogi and Niger out of his reach.
*In the SW, he could get Lagos and perhaps Oyo. The remaining 4 no way.
*SE and SS he will win the majority votes.
Still, just two states in the NW alone could cancel out the SE votes.
You may happily quote Soludo after the winner is declared by Prof. Yakubu in five week's time.

AsomughaChuks05:
Apt. Professor Chukwuma Charles Soludo CFR is the best CBN governor ever! I hope Emefiele listens and accepts his recommendations so that our economy can rebound for the better.

The liver salt crew will not be happy with your comment.

U09ce:
Oil dey your head. It's statistically impossible for Obi to win this election. But his fans will always argue pointlessly

Exactly Oga. You see, these facts are as clear as daylight but they prefer to live in self-delusion. February is just around the corner.

TheChameleon:
Don't mind the mumu.

I worked in Bauchi. Only Dass, Tafawa Balewa and Bogoro are the 3 Christian dominated LGAs out of 20 in the State.

I am a Muslim but to be frank they badly maltreat the Christians there. They have zero say there. That's why PDP can clear 95% of votes there.

I laugh when people badly overestimate Dogara's influence. He can only command those 3 LGAs. He doesn't have a strong say even at Bauchi State level.

Exactly!!!!

TheChameleon:
Brilliant analysis by the way.

These euphoric guys calling themselves Obidients are original daydreamers. The southern Kaduna they are shouting, most people didn't know that anything happened there today. I was like 30km away and people didn't know what was happening.

TheChameleon:
If Obi wins either Lagos or Oyo... in fact if he gets 40% of the votes ... Bola Tinubu has lost it and shouldn't be made President.

Obi can get max 30% in Lagos. You will be shocked when you eventually see 15%.

Where will Obi smell 11% in Oyo ? If you say PDP, ehen... PDP can score 20 - 40 % in Oyo. But definitely not LP.

Modified - apologies. You meant the minimum 25% I thought you meant outright win.

Obi can edge it in Lagos. Oyo... I am 99% sure he wouldn't

May your days be long!

sunray:
Labour Party can only balkanize PDP votes in southern Kaduna. Southern Kaduna has always been PDP. Datti should have taken Obi to Zaria where he comes from to showcase his popularity.

Datti, like Obi, is just enjoying the euphoria, but he has zero value in Zaria politically.

Nice2023:
Where have u travelled to in Nigeria.

Adamawa and Taraba are more of christian than Muslims,Gombe is 35% of Christians same with Bauchi. And in all of this Where is FCT?

In the last election Ekiti gave 400,000 votes or there about,just imagine getting 25% of the total votes cast or how else do u think it would be counted?

Wait and let the election come and u will be left with surprises and shock.

You mean just two LGs of Bauchi out of 20 make up to 35% ? You are indeed wonderful!
Today I was somewhere 30 km from where the rally held, but nobody knew that an IPOB man was closeby.
Just anticipate your shock since you ignore the reality deliberately.

Okoroawusa:
INEC is just wasting its time conducting the February election because it's becoming obvious that Tinubu is Nigeria's next president.

Oga, you dey doubt Soludo's conclusion before?

Penguin2:
The funny thing is that with PDP, APC and NNPP likely to balkanize Muslim votes in Kaduna, while the Christians are gearing up to vote in bloc for Obi, Obi might end up winning the state.

An unexpected victory it would be but very likely as things stand.

You will later understand. You think they are stupid ko?

To win the presidency, not only a simple majority is required but 25% of the votes in at least 24 states and the FCT.
*In the 7 states of the NW, Obi may only get that in Kaduna State. The remaining 6 are out of his reach.
*In the NE, he may only get that in Taraba, 5 definitely out of his reach.
*In the NC, he could get that in Benue,
Nasarawa and Plateau. Kwara, Kogi and Niger out of his reach.
*In the SW, he could get Lagos and perhaps Oyo. The remaining 4 no way.
*SE and SS for him.
Still, Borno and Yobe alone could cancel out the SE votes.
You may happily quote Soludo after the winner is declared by Prof. Yakubu in five week's time.

unohbethel:
Obi is winning Kaduna or at most, his getting 40% votes


U heard it here first

You will soon understand the difference between a dream and a daydream.

Atarakpa:
Which blessing Baba want again. I think he has it all. From long life to wealth and power, what else is bubu looking for?

Add: The politician with the largest cult followers in the land.

A happy weekend to Obituaries from Kperogi who they love to hate. You think both PDP and APC are stupid?

They will surely prefer him over an IPOB man.

An interesting reading!!!


*A LEARNED CHRISTIAN FRIEND FROM NIGER STATE WROTE THIS INSIGHTFUL WRITE UP. KUDOS TO HIM!!!*

*Niger state started as a Muslim christain ticket. But today its Muslim muslim ticket.*
The fault is the arrogance of Christian community. An inflated balloon egoistic sense of their self importance.

When Engineer Kure wanted to go for second term. He called my Bishop jonah who was the CAN chairman of Niger state that he wants second term. My Bishop who has already turned the pulpit to anti government platform. The Bishop refused him flatly. Said he will not support him. The governor walk away. Promising that he can do without him.

My Bishop wass a strong loyalist of Jerry Gana, and Prof Jerry was against the government. Even when both were in PDP. Jerry sponsored Engineer Mustapha Sani Bello, then a minister in Obasanjo's government, and directed the Christian community to vote for PRP. We voted.

As usual, the PDP won and completely crushed the PRP. That election was really a litmus test of Muslim - Christian electoral strength in Niger sate. The entire Christian community suffer till date because of that decision of opposing an incumbent governor.

Engineer kure remains the best governor in Niger state till date. Even bringing in some christian commissioners, and his developmental drive.

Even then I knew that CAN will regret that decision. Jerry Gana led them on. And in the last minute ran away to avoid sanction for anti party activities. He fought a governor using christain Community because obasanjo promise to make him a president after him. Unfortunately he lost to yardua .

After that election the deputy governor Shem Zagbayi who is a christain became a puppet. In trying to prove to his boss that he is relevant. He went to get an audio recording of Jerry Gana and his cohort plan to destabilise the kure government. Instead of it to work for him. The recording work against him. The political stakeholders interpret it to mean that christains cannot be trusted in the politics.

Jerry rode on Babaginda back to political relevance, yet he refused to acknowledge Babangida as his godfather.
After Kure's government, apart from Senator David Umaru no Christian leader rose again to prominence (even Umaru too has lost it now). The ones making noise today are the ones Kure brought to limelight. And nobody has risen after that.
OK. There is a Christian Commissioner for justice presently, Dan mallam, but he rose by befriending the present governor Sani Bello a Muslim.

Back to Kure's regime. So all these set the stage for change of political calculation.

At the end of Kure government, Obasanjo set out to destroy Kure's legacy and he brought out his boy Mu'azu Babangida Aliyu from Pension Board Abuja and installed him as PDP governorship candidate. The zone (C) are to produce a running mate, and they quickly favoured a Muslim from there. And that is how we got the first Muslim Muslim government. After their tenure the next governments was/is still on Muslim-Muslim and nobody is even complaining again. Its now the standard.

Political Lesson 1. Self interest.
1. The same pattern of arrogance is what played out on kaduna. Southern kaduna are my brothers. But this sense of entitlement that play out in Niger state happen in kaduna. Power is negotiated. Northern muslims are like ancient athenians. Who themselves are realist like claiscal Greece. All the rhetoric of fairness, bla bla bla could not match a good negotiation that protect their self interests and their power in Nigeria. You irritate them when you make them feel guilty and putting them under obligation to support a Muslim Christian ticket. They don't care less about past favors and friendly feelings. North is like Japan and Holland. Very vast culture but they share something timeless and universe with nothern Nigeria. SELF INTERST.

2 political lesson 2.islamic culture.
In 16th century Portuguese missionaries tried for years to convert the people of Japan to Catholicism, while at the same time Portugal has monopoly to trade between Japan and Europe. They failed. It backfire. But later when the Dutch arrived in Japan. Japan was relieved. They need the Dutch for their knowledge of gun and navigation, and here they are people who careless about spreading Dutch Christian religion. Dutch want only trade. Japan king swiftly move to evict the Portuguese. From then Japan will only deal with patctical minded people.

This has greatlesson in our politics. I feel its arrogance for peopel to say Tinubu must pick a christain northerner.
North is a Muslim society. Even if we have large population of christains here and there. But cumulatively, they are Muslim. And not just Muslim but practical Muslim culture like Japan with their own Japanese culture. Colonial masters try to impose Christianity on them. And it failed. Toady South is trying to impose securalism on them.it will also fail.

Northern relationship with South is purely self interest. trade and development. South should stay clear of their religion and islamic culture. They hear your criticism of shariah in the North, hijab judgement, blasphemy, and name calling of almjiri, and numerous social issue that reflect your mind versus their cherished culture. All these come together to inform their opinions.

If you want something form north. Talk about something that will protect our self interests and you bypass this religion issue and talk about how you can help arewa with military operation of superior guns, Sophiscated weapons, superior navigation that will flush out bandits and restore security on our farms and homes.Or talk about our r trade. Our society.

*But get the hell out of preaching political fairness in Muslim Christian ticket. That will never sell here. We don't even want to hear it.*

Conclusion.
The sad reality is that this Muslim Muslim ticket will work. Crush the opponents. And get elected. And nothing will still happen. We the christain community will lose out. Not because we didn't vote. But inspite of our votes against it. It still prevail.

Why is it that always, always, its only the Muslims brothers that are fighting to protect arewa.

On Northern interest, our hausa fulani have done more than enough to protect it politically . Northern Chrustains are not found in the fore font. I hardly hear a christain governor speaking for the North. I hardly hear a northern Christian talk about one north. One people. Look at the igbo christain shouting biafra. Biafra. Nnamdi kanu want to die for it. How many northern Christians have spoken fiercely on arewa project. The South insult us. You join them to insult your brothers.

When its time to share office. The christain are coming out to say fairness. Redistribution of someone else reward. So that you take from those that deserve it amd give to those who don't. No way.
My advise to my Christain community in the North. Repent. Start protecting arewa interest today. When you do it with sweat. One day. One day. You will get to represent the beehive or in human language. The Northern region.

Jack500:
By presenting a winning formula?

Why don't you support your obituary and leave APC to their problem.

You ibos have kuku said they will lose, are you guys not suppose to be happy? Why Lamenting and wailing?

The very well know that it is the winning team by God's Grace.
Read the piece below by a Northern Christian:

An interesting reading!!!


*A LEARNED CHRISTIAN FRIEND FROM NIGER STATE WROTE THIS INSIGHTFUL WRITE UP. KUDOS TO HIM!!!*

*Niger state started as a Muslim christain ticket. But today its Muslim muslim ticket.*
The fault is the arrogance of Christian community. An inflated balloon egoistic sense of their self importance.

When Engineer Kure wanted to go for second term. He called my Bishop jonah who was the CAN chairman of Niger state that he wants second term. My Bishop who has already turned the pulpit to anti government platform. The Bishop refused him flatly. Said he will not support him. The governor walk away. Promising that he can do without him.

My Bishop wass a strong loyalist of Jerry Gana, and Prof Jerry was against the government. Even when both were in PDP. Jerry sponsored Engineer Mustapha Sani Bello, then a minister in Obasanjo's government, and directed the Christian community to vote for PRP. We voted.

As usual, the PDP won and completely crushed the PRP. That election was really a litmus test of Muslim - Christian electoral strength in Niger sate. The entire Christian community suffer till date because of that decision of opposing an incumbent governor.

Engineer kure remains the best governor in Niger state till date. Even bringing in some christian commissioners, and his developmental drive.

Even then I knew that CAN will regret that decision. Jerry Gana led them on. And in the last minute ran away to avoid sanction for anti party activities. He fought a governor using christain Community because obasanjo promise to make him a president after him. Unfortunately he lost to yardua .

After that election the deputy governor Shem Zagbayi who is a christain became a puppet. In trying to prove to his boss that he is relevant. He went to get an audio recording of Jerry Gana and his cohort plan to destabilise the kure government. Instead of it to work for him. The recording work against him. The political stakeholders interpret it to mean that christains cannot be trusted in the politics.

Jerry rode on Babaginda back to political relevance, yet he refused to acknowledge Babangida as his godfather.
After Kure's government, apart from Senator David Umaru no Christian leader rose again to prominence (even Umaru too has lost it now). The ones making noise today are the ones Kure brought to limelight. And nobody has risen after that.
OK. There is a Christian Commissioner for justice presently, Dan mallam, but he rose by befriending the present governor Sani Bello a Muslim.

Back to Kure's regime. So all these set the stage for change of political calculation.

At the end of Kure government, Obasanjo set out to destroy Kure's legacy and he brought out his boy Mu'azu Babangida Aliyu from Pension Board Abuja and installed him as PDP governorship candidate. The zone (C) are to produce a running mate, and they quickly favoured a Muslim from there. And that is how we got the first Muslim Muslim government. After their tenure the next governments was/is still on Muslim-Muslim and nobody is even complaining again. Its now the standard.

Political Lesson 1. Self interest.
1. The same pattern of arrogance is what played out on kaduna. Southern kaduna are my brothers. But this sense of entitlement that play out in Niger state happen in kaduna. Power is negotiated. Northern muslims are like ancient athenians. Who themselves are realist like claiscal Greece. All the rhetoric of fairness, bla bla bla could not match a good negotiation that protect their self interests and their power in Nigeria. You irritate them when you make them feel guilty and putting them under obligation to support a Muslim Christian ticket. They don't care less about past favors and friendly feelings. North is like Japan and Holland. Very vast culture but they share something timeless and universe with nothern Nigeria. SELF INTERST.

2 political lesson 2.islamic culture.
In 16th century Portuguese missionaries tried for years to convert the people of Japan to Catholicism, while at the same time Portugal has monopoly to trade between Japan and Europe. They failed. It backfire. But later when the Dutch arrived in Japan. Japan was relieved. They need the Dutch for their knowledge of gun and navigation, and here they are people who careless about spreading Dutch Christian religion. Dutch want only trade. Japan king swiftly move to evict the Portuguese. From then Japan will only deal with patctical minded people.

This has greatlesson in our politics. I feel its arrogance for peopel to say Tinubu must pick a christain northerner.
North is a Muslim society. Even if we have large population of christains here and there. But cumulatively, they are Muslim. And not just Muslim but practical Muslim culture like Japan with their own Japanese culture. Colonial masters try to impose Christianity on them. And it failed. Toady South is trying to impose securalism on them.it will also fail.

Northern relationship with South is purely self interest. trade and development. South should stay clear of their religion and islamic culture. They hear your criticism of shariah in the North, hijab judgement, blasphemy, and name calling of almjiri, and numerous social issue that reflect your mind versus their cherished culture. All these come together to inform their opinions.

If you want something form north. Talk about something that will protect our self interests and you bypass this religion issue and talk about how you can help arewa with military operation of superior guns, Sophiscated weapons, superior navigation that will flush out bandits and restore security on our farms and homes.Or talk about our r trade. Our society.

*But get the hell out of preaching political fairness in Muslim Christian ticket. That will never sell here. We don't even want to hear it.*

Conclusion.
The sad reality is that this Muslim Muslim ticket will work. Crush the opponents. And get elected. And nothing will still happen. We the christain community will lose out. Not because we didn't vote. But inspite of our votes against it. It still prevail.

Why is it that always, always, its only the Muslims brothers that are fighting to protect arewa.

On Northern interest, our hausa fulani have done more than enough to protect it politically . Northern Chrustains are not found in the fore font. I hardly hear a christain governor speaking for the North. I hardly hear a northern Christian talk about one north. One people. Look at the igbo christain shouting biafra. Biafra. Nnamdi kanu want to die for it. How many northern Christians have spoken fiercely on arewa project. The South insult us. You join them to insult your brothers.

When its time to share office. The christain are coming out to say fairness. Redistribution of someone else reward. So that you take from those that deserve it amd give to those who don't. No way.
My advise to my Christain community in the North. Repent. Start protecting arewa interest today. When you do it with sweat. One day. One day. You will get to represent the beehive or in human language. The Northern region.

An interesting reading!!!


*A LEARNED CHRISTIAN FRIEND FROM NIGER STATE WROTE THIS INSIGHTFUL WRITE UP. KUDOS TO HIM!!!*

*Niger state started as a Muslim christain ticket. But today its Muslim muslim ticket.*
The fault is the arrogance of Christian community. An inflated balloon egoistic sense of their self importance.

When Engineer Kure wanted to go for second term. He called my Bishop jonah who was the CAN chairman of Niger state that he wants second term. My Bishop who has already turned the pulpit to anti government platform. The Bishop refused him flatly. Said he will not support him. The governor walk away. Promising that he can do without him.

My Bishop wass a strong loyalist of Jerry Gana, and Prof Jerry was against the government. Even when both were in PDP. Jerry sponsored Engineer Mustapha Sani Bello, then a minister in Obasanjo's government, and directed the Christian community to vote for PRP. We voted.

As usual, the PDP won and completely crushed the PRP. That election was really a litmus test of Muslim - Christian electoral strength in Niger sate. The entire Christian community suffer till date because of that decision of opposing an incumbent governor.

Engineer kure remains the best governor in Niger state till date. Even bringing in some christian commissioners, and his developmental drive.

Even then I knew that CAN will regret that decision. Jerry Gana led them on. And in the last minute ran away to avoid sanction for anti party activities. He fought a governor using christain Community because obasanjo promise to make him a president after him. Unfortunately he lost to yardua .

After that election the deputy governor Shem Zagbayi who is a christain became a puppet. In trying to prove to his boss that he is relevant. He went to get an audio recording of Jerry Gana and his cohort plan to destabilise the kure government. Instead of it to work for him. The recording work against him. The political stakeholders interpret it to mean that christains cannot be trusted in the politics.

Jerry rode on Babaginda back to political relevance, yet he refused to acknowledge Babangida as his godfather.
After Kure's government, apart from Senator David Umaru no Christian leader rose again to prominence (even Umaru too has lost it now). The ones making noise today are the ones Kure brought to limelight. And nobody has risen after that.
OK. There is a Christian Commissioner for justice presently, Dan mallam, but he rose by befriending the present governor Sani Bello a Muslim.

Back to Kure's regime. So all these set the stage for change of political calculation.

At the end of Kure government, Obasanjo set out to destroy Kure's legacy and he brought out his boy Mu'azu Babangida Aliyu from Pension Board Abuja and installed him as PDP governorship candidate. The zone (C) are to produce a running mate, and they quickly favoured a Muslim from there. And that is how we got the first Muslim Muslim government. After their tenure the next governments was/is still on Muslim-Muslim and nobody is even complaining again. Its now the standard.

Political Lesson 1. Self interest.
1. The same pattern of arrogance is what played out on kaduna. Southern kaduna are my brothers. But this sense of entitlement that play out in Niger state happen in kaduna. Power is negotiated. Northern muslims are like ancient athenians. Who themselves are realist like claiscal Greece. All the rhetoric of fairness, bla bla bla could not match a good negotiation that protect their self interests and their power in Nigeria. You irritate them when you make them feel guilty and putting them under obligation to support a Muslim Christian ticket. They don't care less about past favors and friendly feelings. North is like Japan and Holland. Very vast culture but they share something timeless and universe with nothern Nigeria. SELF INTERST.

2 political lesson 2.islamic culture.
In 16th century Portuguese missionaries tried for years to convert the people of Japan to Catholicism, while at the same time Portugal has monopoly to trade between Japan and Europe. They failed. It backfire. But later when the Dutch arrived in Japan. Japan was relieved. They need the Dutch for their knowledge of gun and navigation, and here they are people who careless about spreading Dutch Christian religion. Dutch want only trade. Japan king swiftly move to evict the Portuguese. From then Japan will only deal with patctical minded people.

This has greatlesson in our politics. I feel its arrogance for peopel to say Tinubu must pick a christain northerner.
North is a Muslim society. Even if we have large population of christains here and there. But cumulatively, they are Muslim. And not just Muslim but practical Muslim culture like Japan with their own Japanese culture. Colonial masters try to impose Christianity on them. And it failed. Toady South is trying to impose securalism on them.it will also fail.

Northern relationship with South is purely self interest. trade and development. South should stay clear of their religion and islamic culture. They hear your criticism of shariah in the North, hijab judgement, blasphemy, and name calling of almjiri, and numerous social issue that reflect your mind versus their cherished culture. All these come together to inform their opinions.

If you want something form north. Talk about something that will protect our self interests and you bypass this religion issue and talk about how you can help arewa with military operation of superior guns, Sophiscated weapons, superior navigation that will flush out bandits and restore security on our farms and homes.Or talk about our r trade. Our society.

*But get the hell out of preaching political fairness in Muslim Christian ticket. That will never sell here. We don't even want to hear it.*

Conclusion.
The sad reality is that this Muslim Muslim ticket will work. Crush the opponents. And get elected. And nothing will still happen. We the christain community will lose out. Not because we didn't vote. But inspite of our votes against it. It still prevail.

Why is it that always, always, its only the Muslims brothers that are fighting to protect arewa.

On Northern interest, our hausa fulani have done more than enough to protect it politically . Northern Chrustains are not found in the fore font. I hardly hear a christain governor speaking for the North. I hardly hear a northern Christian talk about one north. One people. Look at the igbo christain shouting biafra. Biafra. Nnamdi kanu want to die for it. How many northern Christians have spoken fiercely on arewa project. The South insult us. You join them to insult your brothers.

When its time to share office. The christain are coming out to say fairness. Redistribution of someone else reward. So that you take from those that deserve it amd give to those who don't. No way.
My advise to my Christain community in the North. Repent. Start protecting arewa interest today. When you do it with sweat. One day. One day. You will get to represent the beehive or in human language. The Northern region.