₦airaland Forum

THIS IS THE MOTHER OF ALL SCARCITIES..

DrinkLimca:
Bank is a dwarf with big head..
all dwarfs have kulikuli dick.

u r wrong..its more of hereditary..sm runs in d family irrespective of height

SouthEastFacts:
The PDP National Convention has come and gone, though many are comfortable with the outcome, but few are not, believing that they were sidelined.

This group arrogating to themselves the title of King Maker in the Nigerian political space, believes it will be disastrous for the PDP to ignore them in build up to 2019 election. They believe they can influence the outcome of any Presidential election, hence they are positioning for the PDP VP slot.

In this article, we are going to analyze the political clout of South Western Nigeria from 2011 and their impact on Presidential elections in Nigeria.

In 2011 election, the National election turnout was 52.3%, while turn out in the North was 52.8%, turn out in Eastern Nigerian (South East (66.9) and South South (67.0%)) was 67.0% while SW was 32.8% and they repeated this turn out in 2015 again.

While other regions either fell within the national average or exceeded it, South West was the only region that went below it by 37%, while South East and South South both exceeded it by 27.0%.

At the end of the election, out of the 16290593 votes casted in the South, the South West contributed 28.3% by casting only 4613712 votes, leaving South East and South South to provide the remaining 71.7%, casting 11676881.

Out of this 16290593 votes casted in the South, 13890271 votes were casted for PDP. South West even though it has the highest population in the South contributed only 20% of those votes by casting 2786417 votes, leaving South East with the lowest population and South South with the median population to contribute the other 80%, at 36% and 44% respectively and casting 4985246 and 6118608 votes respectively.

While South West contributed only 12.3% of the entire 22495187 votes PDP got at the election, South East and South South contributed 49.4%, leaving the entire North (3 regions) and FCT to provide the other 38.3%

It is important to point out that while South East gave 98.3% of their votes to PDP, South South gave 96.3%, while South West 60.4%, making them the only region that doesn't give bloc vote, while South East as PDP's strongest hold.

In 2015, South West gave 1851416 votes to PDP while giving 2433193 votes to APC, making APC win South West by a meager votes of 581777, advantage Anambra in the South East rendered useless by giving PDP 660762, returning advantage to PDP by 78985 votes.

It is important to point out that since majority of the 1851416 votes to PDP were gotten from Igbo dominated areas, should South West vote the way they did in 2015, Anambra will always be on ground to restore advantage.

While South West gave 43.2% of their votes to PDP, South East gave 93.0% of their votes to PDP while South South gave 91.8%. This again confirms South East as PDP's strongest hold and South West as the only region that doesn't give bloc votes in the South.

While South West contributed 14.4% of the total PDP's votes of 12853162 and 15.8% of APC's votes, South South and South East contributed 55.9% of PDP's votes and 4.0% of APC's votes leaving the entire North and FCT to contibute the other 29.7% of PDP's votes and 80.2% of APC's votes.

Finally it is important to point out 4 things:
1. In 2011, assuming South West gave 100% of their votes to Buhari's CPC who came second and gave nothing to PDP and other parties, Jonathan's PDP would have still won the election by 6093068 votes.

South West voted 2786417 for PDP, 1369943 for ACN, 321609 to CPC and 30906 for ANPP.

2. In 2015, assuming South West as a region decided not to vote at all, Buhari would have still won by 1989982 votes.

3. In 2015, assuming South West APC decided not to vote, allowing only South West PDP to vote for Jonathan, Buhari would have still won by 138566 votes.

4. Maybe as a result of faulty card reader recorded in the South East and South South during the election, which even caused His Excellency, the former President to try 7 times before been captured, turn out in SE fell from 66.9% in 2011 to 37% in 2015 and turn out in the South South fell from 67% in 2011 to 56% in 2015, while South West got the same turn out as in 2011. In the North, turn out in 2015 was 54.4% in Kebbi, 60% in Zamfara, while Boko Haram infested Borno, Adamawa and Yobe had an average turn out of 41.7%.

Assuming South East and South South alone voted in 2015 the way they did in 2011, with the other 4 regions and FCT voting like they did in 2015, Jonathan would have gotten 16777385 votes, beating Buhari with 1352464 votes.

In summary, experience from 1999 has taught us that South West PDP supporters are mainly Igbos and Niger Deltans, while South West APC (which metamorphosed from ACN) are mainly Yorubas.

Statistics from 2011 Presidential election equally confirms this. In that year, South West as a region alone, fielding a Northerner, Mallam Ribadu running on a Yoruba regional party ACN, gave the party 65.9% of its total vote, while contributing 89% of the Party's votes from the South, while South East and South South provided the other 11%.

Statistics from 2007, when His Excellency, the former Vice President, ran on that platform equally confirms this.

As a result of this, the South West can never offer a bloc vote. Hence, no matter who South West APC vote for, they CAN NEVER influence the outcome of any Presidential election. Their votes are just formalities.

SOURCES:
https://naijagists.com/final-inec-results-of-2015-nigerian-presidential-election-by-state-buhari-wins-21-states-gej-picks-16/

www.nigerianmuse.com/20110419040622zg/sections/general-articles/details-of-2011-presidential-election-results-in-nigeria/

YOU HAVE NAILED IT!

That gesture is a norm in politics

ufuosman:
That's life

seunmsg:
The initial news was that five governors, seven ministers and over twenty senators will follow Atiku to PDP. Now, it is just some unknown 'mere' commissioners in Adamawa state alone. So much for the mass defection that ipobs envisaged!

In as much as the governor remains in APC, the commissioners are irrelevant and can be easily replaced. Atiku can even win Adamawa for all i care, he will still lose at the end of the day.

ur concern should on how placate the scores of disgruntled members from jumping ship. Remember the exodus of Ameachi and 4ors from PDP..it didn't go without tale tale signs wsame hovering over APC now

amaco13:
Okorocha appointment is now trending everywhere, but Wike's 800m SUV for lawmakers never trend like common appointment,hmmmmmm.

this is misplaced.. @ least car gifts sounds reasonable.

My broda u will sell that car btw 1.2-1.3m....don't b greedy

voxsaint:
Now 1.7

INDOCTRINATION

Flooded?

Why is it dino n saraki

I love ur quotes

Pls how much will clear 2011 Toyota Camry

Im

Somebody priced this car 1m u no sell am comot

1.050? will pay before noon 2moro

OROZ:
Available

How much can u clear 2011 Toyota Camry Grimaldi

This is barbaric, senseless, inhumane n to say the least bestial

zoba88:
According to the story shared by Buba(originally shared by Mustapha) corpses of slaughtered Fulani women and children brutally murdered by the Mambilla militiamen have been discovered in Kwara Kwara village hinterland of Gembu.


Source: http://www.trezzyhelm.com/2017/06/corpses-of-fulani-women-and-children.html

My friend just had triplets after 9yrs. Before God visited them they bond in a way that my 3yrs old marriage is learning

Dreamscometrue:
..I just don't know where to start from.
I feel like ending it all.
My husband just broke up with me because I am yet to conceive and he said he doesn't want IVF.
We have only be trying for a year plus.

This is someone I did a lot of things for and now he has abandoned me.I don't know how to face my family.I feel so ashamed and devastated.
God has really forsaken me...

How do I start my life afresh because I am so confused.
It is not going to be easy for me because I have invested so much in this marriage.I have done so many things because of love.It is really hard for me.I am at the receiving end.

Will I be able to pull through this?

920 very serious buyer will pay cash on Wednesday

Dem never buy this car? Choooooooiiiiiiii

Will it fly 1.4m mk dis depreciating $ rate no come reach am

wale101010:
Something Tells Me That A Powerful Foreign Intelligence Agency Is Behind IPOB. I have never seen a movement so well organized, disciplined where everything goes in phases with sheer perfection and incredible grassroot mobilization. Something is fishy. Why is Nnamdi Kanu so fearless? Did a powerful person in the world assured him that nothing will happen to him? You can't be so fearless in this world unless you are supported by some powerful forces that run this world.

. For OBJ an acclaimed CIA asset to say IGBOS should produce president 2019 just to assuage the build-up leaves more to be desired.

davodyguy:
lol. It's level of illiteracy.

Check the supporters, they're mostly traders, school dropouts, drivers and bus conductors

u won't understand what d mod is saying

ayarandy:
U R A CIRCUMCIZED NLder

very rare to see a deep nlder

wale101010:
Something Tells Me That A Powerful Foreign Intelligence Agency Is Behind IPOB. I have never seen a movement so well organized, disciplined where everything goes in phases with sheer perfection and incredible grassroot mobilization. Something is fishy. Why is Nnamdi Kanu so fearless? Did a powerful person in the world assured him that nothing will happen to him? You can't be so fearless in this world unless you are supported by some powerful forces that run this world.

U R A CIRCUMCIZED NLder

GuntersChain:
No comment

finest men

We all lie..
That's politics .
U CNT separate politics from lies. They're like Siamese twins. How did our darling APC secure this mandate? Call it ethical propaganda if u like

michoim:
Wike, Fayose and FFK are band of liars and deceivers . They trade in the same commodity.

No, noo if u CNT b a cultist but a cultism since we r not sure bt u can say that i m a cultist somebody since it is still in d speculative realm. pls u must learn these things

jolomiurenyi:
English teacher, how much have you collected from sterling bank...... Wrong teacher.

And mean while both of us are on the same level, if I'm a cultist, u're also a cultist....

U didn't notice it when u responded earlier... Too much garri..eye problem...don't worry e go better. Meanwhile, if u r referring to more than one cultist , d right word should be CULTISMS PEOPLE . Eg. Mr A , B n jolomiurenyi r all CULTISM PEOPLE because birds on d same ladder flow together! Iwatago usoh?

jolomiurenyi:
CULTISM? Only one person na CULTISM
Mugu

Anyway, I knew them back then in skul....

jolomiurenyi:
Everyone knowns that wike is a bagger..... Arobagger.... A norseman.... An adventurer....... Both of them dey anchor each other...

So u r A CULTISM

REMOVE THE LOG IN UR EYES BEFORE TRYING TO HELP UR BRODA GET A PEG OFF HIS EYES