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Last minutes will be very disastrous for Peter! His Akagum nature won’t help him at all.

More disappointments will filter in next week

I don't blame you.
An average Igbo Man thinks money is everything.
That's why they are committing crimes all over the world.

I don’t have a guess. So we went ground-truthing stats, state by state. We found the current scenario to be similar to that in the 2015 elections. We obtained and analysed past voting patterns, voter turnouts, voter choice homogeneity, the religious homogeneity index, and so on.

In short, by deploying reliable statistical estimators, we measured the people’s voting predilections and came to the conclusion that Tinubu would win the popular votes and would be the only candidate to satisfy the spread criteria of a minimum of 25% votes in ⅔ of the 36 states (We’ll discuss the methodology in detail later).

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President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions
President Tinubu: State level Predilections and Statistical Predictions

Who will win the presidential race the coming Saturday?

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I don’t have a guess. So we went ground-truthing stats, state by state. We found the current scenario to be similar to that in the 2015 elections. We obtained and analysed past voting patterns, voter turnouts, voter choice homogeneity, the religious homogeneity index, and so on.

In short, by deploying reliable statistical estimators, we measured the people’s voting predilections and came to the conclusion that Tinubu would win the popular votes and would be the only candidate to satisfy the spread criteria of a minimum of 25% votes in ⅔ of the 36 states (We’ll discuss the methodology in detail later).


This prediction cancels out the oft-speculated possibility of having ties at the first instance of the election on February 25, which would then occasion a rerun to determine the winner.

The race is so close and uncertain that people are beginning to wonder, “Would there be a clear winner come February 25, 2023, or would there be a rerun?”

Read other Dataphyte reports

The reason is that Nigeria’s political landscape underwent a seismic shift for good with the emergence of Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) in the race.

But how could Tinubu ever have a clear win?
Nigerians vote, they don’t choose!

Tinubu would win in 2023 as long as the majority of Nigerian voters prioritise the ethnicity and religion of the candidates above the candidates’ capacity to resolve common existential issues like unemployment or absolute poverty.

In the paper, Voting without Choosing? Ethnic Voting Behaviour and Voting Patterns in Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Election and Implications for Institutionalisation of Social Conflicts, Kialee Nyiayaana comments:

“While scholarly examinations portray the presidential election results as 'victory for democracy', not least because an incumbent president was defeated for the first time in Nigeria, analysis of the spatial structure of votes cast reveals a predominant pattern of voting along ethnic, religious and geospatial lines.”

The paper further contends that “this identity-based voting not only translates into a phenomenon of 'voting without choosing,' but is also problematic for social cohesion, interethnic harmony and peacebuilding in Nigeria.”

Nigeria’s 6 Geopolitical Zones



https://datadive.substack.com/p/president-tinubu-predilections-and

OmoIjebuOde:


80% of Yoruba Christians will not vote for Muslim-Muslim evil ticket.

Na you dey count them
Your eyes go clear on Sunday or Monday.
Be dreaming

I'm a Yoruba Christian and Tinubu will have my vote. We are not religious bigots in Yoruba land. Carry your your hatred to your BIafla land.
You have few more days to upgrade to wailing app 3.0

Godisablealltim:
Tinubu is a bastard, a real omo ale with no lineage.

Your father is miserable. No wonder he died of of Kaikai abuse.

Who is Oyakhilome? Let him go and reconcile with his estranged wife first. God of men. Scam of scams.

For you to be Obidense, you must have a baby brain

Abi 1000 man-march

asanausana91:
frustration is on. You will definitely hang yourself after the drug Barron loses the election.

Obi is a fool and he's going nowhere
His followers will cry Las las

NothingDoMe:
You didn't watch the video then. Just say you need data that's all. I can assist. These are trying times for many Nigerians

I watched the program live, stop peddling fake news. Obi is going nowhere.

asanausana91:
while your mother is

Your mother is useless like the mother of this op

2elliot:
Shut up

Come here, children from broken homes. If they did not train you at home I will train you here. When you see elders you must respect us. Tell your parents when you get home that I said you lack home training.

Obidense are illiterates, they are in school but hate has blocked their sense of reasoning.
They are online illiterates like the OP. You want to tell us what you did not know. Children has really flooded Nairaland.

BenedictAbajue:
I will never forget how that woman said Goodluck Jonathan has Cockroach Brain in front of all of us in our primary 5 class then.
This happened in 2015 o.
I'm sure that woman wherever she is is still supporting Tinubu.
Even though She can see what the Buhari she supported turned to.
This is how myopic Yorubas are.
She insulted someone who was older than her then, I wonder what she would have done if I insulted her the same way too.
I an always happy to see my old teachers but this woman lost all the respect I had for her then.

Nigerians please do not make the same mistake again

Charity they say begins at home. You have no regards for your parents at home, if not, you won't be here writing these about your teacher and insulting Yorubas. It clearly showed you were badly raised by your parents and you are a disaster waiting to happen.

Datti is daft. Cry cry Dafti.
His day of crying is very close.

Op your father is a bastard

buygala:

Why are they disturbing CBN when President Nasiru already told them the old notes are valid for 100 years, despite anything Governor Buhari says. ..


As Nasiru is now the President and Buhari is the Governor, they should continue spending it.. Even outside Kaduna, they should spend the old notes by Proclamation of President Nasiru

You are stupid talking rubbish on Nairaland.

The naira scarcity is not affecting your father in the village

Op if there's no single naira in circulation and they kidnap your father join we go still vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed

clarocuzioo:
Buhari simply seperated the masses from the looters. 200 will ease the pains of the masses and help drive small transactions. 1000 and 500 naira notes stashed by Tinubu and governors for this election remains a tissue paper.

No more bullion van

As you are part of the masses, how many 200 naira do you have at home ?
Tinubu that you hate will still win the coming election.

See them crying profusely here too

Obi Gringory will travel to China, his followers will travel to Togo and remaining ones will be here crying like Datti and Aisha Yesuf.

Obi Gringory is a fraud like his followers

If you like turn the picture of your father upside down That's your next president

She cried when she realized she has been LABOURING IN VAIN.
Cry cry party of Nigeria. Your day of crying is not today, it remains few weeks

Jokers, see people that want to win Tinubu in Lagos

OdefaGirl:
Most of these people posting and highlighting their main intentions of uploading news here ... Is it that you are jobless or hate has consumed you?

Before you quote me, check my posts..... I post what happens everywhere in the world including where I come from but I am not Tribalistic, therefore I don't highlight names. I pity who allows these tribalism shits in Nairaland affects him/her.

You people can't take half of what you give out daily. Awon drug peddler, developer aye.

They spoilt our name worldwide, they called the country zoo, to them Yoruba is Afonja and Hausa is Cow. Now they want to preside over the zoo, God forbid bad thing. If Peter enter na hin papa Obi house e enter.

They want to turn everywhere to Anambra state where everybody is a billionaire. Charity begins at home. Obituary project is a failed project.

inoki247:



Oga stop talking like you know what's on ground Aregbe can't do anything in Osun so rest unless you want to deceive people in oda region....


At least Aregbe candidate contested in for primary even 15k he no see so rest...


The one Oyetola won it took dem Omisore intervention cos e don lose already dat was wen Aregbe was in power dey had to go use an external force to help him so what're you talking about....

If you want to deceive yourself fine nobody's holding you....


Where Aregbe even get Electoral value pass na Alimosho for Lagos nd I remember after the fall out and the ranting dem mak sure dey tak dat zone away from him cos na dere b one of APC rigging formular dey always come from...

I was in Oshogbo late last year. They were complaining about Oyetola. I think he did not play his game well.