₦airaland Forum

casualobserver:
i had debates like this before the 2023 election. everything...i repeat everything i said turned out to be. Even down to to Go and examine my post history if you like. These days I dont have time for engagements on nairaland because I find most are emotional.

We have less than a year. save my post and come back to me in 2027 if you find I was wrong.

Not really. Every opinion on the 2027 election is based on emotions and preferences. Your analysis itself is an emotional display. Insisting that a candidate should not and cannot be elected is drawn from emotions. Emotional people are always certain. A candidate that is sure about his popularity doesn’t need glitches to win.

Difference between me and you is, you want Peter Obi anywhere but in Aso rock. I, however, want Tinubu to sit up, or be replaced by Obi or anyone else.

If Tinubu wins, I’ll still be here, nothing spoil. If Obi wins you’d likely change your account and disappear for a while, because you have displayed fatuous overconfidence by insisting on a reality you cannot deliver.

stuffs2002:
Abeg that guy told you the truth and listen for once.

Northerners will never vote Obi

In Nigerian politics, there’s a myth that the north is a political monolith, with constituents that have no direction of their own. Completely indivisible and having no factions. This notion has been exposed as false over time, so I don’t see why people still persist on it. The opinion of the northerner from Plateau, differs from the one from Kano, which also differs from the one residing in Adamawa, Benue, kaduna etc. they’re not the same, they don’t reason alike.
The fact that their opinions seem to align sometimes doesn’t mean they always agree.

Note: When I say the north, I mean it’s people, not its elites.

By the way, an APC spokesperson taught me this as he dismissed El rufai’s desertion as inconsequential. Before you start contradicting yourselves.

casualobserver:
the error some of these kindergarten politicians/analysts make is they assume the 2023 numbers are fully portable.

1. your votes as a presidential aspirant are not the same as your votes as a VP
2. Atiku's 6.7m votes are mostly PDP votes many of which will stay with PDp or the APC in cases where the governors have defected
3. obi has not gained any new support and he has definitely lost support.
4. Kwakwanso will lose some votes as a result of the division with the governor, talk less as a VP, he will pull even less if he isnt on the ticket.
5: Tinubu will gain votes because he doesnt have the same forces of 2023 working against him, he is the incumbent and he has consolidated his reach. he will get above 12m votes
6: there is the reality, that Obi as the flag bearer discourages northern votes and Obi as a VP will alienate some ibo votes as well as others who believe the south should finish 8yrs..

the best alternative is Atiku/Obi but IMHO it will still not be enough. I will be surprised if they get a combined 10m. Atiku/Obi will mean the Obi and kwakwanso factions will not campaign or come out to vote enthusiatically.

Let us not forget, a VP is a lame duck! ADC is an alliance of bitter rivals, whoever becomes VP will be sidelined by or at the very least be in constant conflict with whichever faction is president!

Nairaland political analyst. Ok, I have time today.

1. In a normal circumstance, a political candidate usually loses support after becoming the incumbent regardless of how they perform. This is especially true if there is a deviation between what they promised vs what they delivered (of course there are exceptions). This is the usual eventuality.

2. Tinubu has lost more support than all potential ADC aspirants. He has definitely lost support in the north, especially the central north. He never won down south and this is likely going to repeat itself, unless the usual alternative path to victory is utilized. I honestly don’t know where APC fans get their confidence from. Even Tinubu doesn’t act this cocky.

3. If El Rufai had remained in APC and Kwankwaso decided to join in, you probably would have seen this as proof that the “north is secured”. However, if the three major northern elites in ADC rn decided to back one candidate, what happened in 2014 would likely repeat itself.

4. The myth that the north is a political monolith, with constituents that have no direction of their own. Completely indivisible and having no factions, has been exposed as false over time. I don’t see why people still persist on it. The opinion of the northerner from Plateau, differs from the one from Kano, which also differs from the one residing in Adamawa, Benue, kaduna etc. they’re not the same, they don’t reason alike.
The fact that their opinions seem to align sometimes doesn’t mean they always agree.
Note: When I say the north, I mean it’s people, not its elites. By the way, an APC spokesperson taught me this as he dismissed El rufai’s desertion as inconsequential. Before you start contradicting yourselves.

5. There’s a reason out of a few potential candidates, APC chose to single out one man. This is the first time in history where minsters leave their duties to slander a political candidate. The fact that the APC prefers an opposition led by Atiku instead of Obi proves they know who can unseat T-bobo.

6. Very few Nigerians will base the 2027 on ethnicity and religion. This alone, breaks your pattern.

mukshin:
he lacks political sense and hes filled with hates on Yorubas.

lol. or are you just petrified by the idea of an east-north alliance which will likely disrupt the current political hierarchy. Affecting mostly the Yoruba position as second fiddle to the north, especially if an Igbo president emerges and performs decently?

If PO has shown hate against Yorubas he wouldn’t have Yoruba friends and supporters, even some of your most prominent monarchs in Yoruba land are fans of his. This is not the aura of a bigot.

omoredia:
I tire oo. Nigerians should know that Nigeria is more than Hausa, Yoruba and Ibos. very annoying

Funny you should say that, when you don’t even know the correct spelling is IGBO not Ibo.

Congratulations to them in this new phase of their ethno-political relationship.

demstone:
UR ATTENTION TO DETAIL IS ZERO..

REMINDS ME OF A CERTAIN MAN WHO CANT FOCUS ND BUILD ANYTHING..

SIMPLY JUMPING FROM PLACE TO PLACE..

What is wrong with you? 😆😆

Are you sure you’re ok?
Abeg check my previous comments on this thread to know if you’re replying the right person.

demstone:
ALL THIS ADC BOYS HAVE ONE THING IN COMMON

DEY BROUGHT DOWN GEJ
BETRAYED WIKE
WIPED OUT KANU'S FAMILY

WANT TINUBU OUT FOR THEMSELVES

YET U THINK DEY WOULD MAKE UR OBI PRESIDENT...

HOW NAW U WILL LEARN
MY BROTHER!!
UR FIRST PAIN IS IN A FEW DAYS

I’m not an ADC boy. Next.

PigTormentor:
Because that's what you feel inside. Stop trying to protect your life failures and pain in others.

Proved me right yet again.

Always beating drum of war. Yet, war is ongoing in their backyard and they’re fleeing.

PigTormentor:
Coming from the most shameless incompetent spokesman of the most shameless party ever
ADC - a gathering of shameless desperate out of office sore loser politicians.

Behind the laughing emoji, I sense pain.

Jakpon:
Lol. Yes you are right bro. Tinubu is a Yoruba man and he would complete his full eight years tenure as the executive president of this contraption

Believe whatever helps you reach orgasm.

Some of these victims stood on mandate. That’s one major reason for my expressionlessness towards their demise.

Jakpon:
Tinubu should step down so that Shettima, a Northerner should act as the president, right? That's the plan all along. Use insecurity that originated and nurtured by the North to disrupt a Southern Presidency

Nothing like southern presidency. Yoruba presidency is more accurate. Dont drag people into your rubbish rhetoric.

Delulu

Victimology. I see nothing else in this write-up.

Tooreda:
This may be mean but I sincerely wish Nairaland footsoldiers fall victim. This will reset their brain. You don’t support evil under any guise. Never.

People that said they’d rather die than see Tinubu unhappy?

I think it should be obvious now Tinubu is not doing any inclusive railway project, unless maybe in Lagos and some half-done railways in other parts of the country.

How about this: stop having the compulsive tendency to vote Fulani as president every single election. Fulani leadership is not synonymous with northern leadership.

Not saying you shouldn’t vote Fulani, but there should be limits. There should be times when regional and religious politics don’t influence your decision making.

The north brought this upon themselves. When an entire region is being politically represented by one group, expect arrogance and unprovoked, gratuitous behaviour from that group.

Welp, you don’t challenge the US of A without consequences. Your mind go cool down las las.

amnesty7:
Haters and children of hate will pretend not to see this outstanding achievement.
Congratulations, Doctor!

What is there to hate? Koshii jare.
Congrats to him.

Oluwaseunomo:
Kee yourself make i help you buy sniper

Me and you who look like person wey want kee himself? Yinmu.

Lithiumite:
I still mentioned more things he has done than he hasn't.....if you have more, I equally do too.

It’s useless arguing.

dragunov:
But the sad reality for you is that he won't. He's like a leper. Even Atiku is now avoiding him.

😆

dragunov:
Yeah, maybe in the 3350. By that time, I will be surely gone. But as far as 2027 is concerned, nor at any material time, Obi nor any one from the SE will ever be president of Nigeria. Know that and know peace.
The cityboy movement is Seyi's initiative. A kind of personal baptism into politics. Continue your coping mechanism. At least it will temporarily relieve tension.

Na only you Dey cope my dear. Your opinion is irrelevant. If Obi wins election go and carry Shaka bulla and stop him from entering Aso villa. Yinmu.

Lithiumite:
Tinubu told us he was going to remove subsidy,stop the dysfunctional defending of the naira,LG autonomy, student loans,inprove govt revenue,improve investments in the oil sector etc

He also told us he would give us steady electricity before 4 years. He said he would build one refinery every two years if elected. He said he would conscript 50 million youths into the army and feed them with corn, beans and cassava. Need I go on?

ukfootwear:
The main vote needed is from the north

And where will T bobo win in the north?

Plateau? The people he failed to protect and sympathize with?

Kaduna? Who didn’t even vote for him in 2023, where the only reason he won votes there was because of el rufai?

Kano? Which you would have claimed as APC state (if Kwankwaso had joined APC) but currently have no footing on?
Benue, Kwara, sokoto, Adamawa?
Where exactly does Tinubu get his support in the north?

Make no mistake, the only reason some non-SWtern Nigerians supported Tinubu in 2023 was because they believed in the myth that he built Lagos. After becoming president and displaying utter failure, he is likely to get less votes in 2027 than he did in 2023 because we now know his level of competence.

Tareq1105:
Continue to deceive yourself over pics that were taken before the commencement of the program.

The performer was on stage when the event had not commenced? Why lie to yourself?

Jayhome24:
Do you have shame? Na sin if Edo too produce presidential candidate? You have no shame your Edo live like a parasite always second class citizen and always vice or deputy na sin to be First class citizen or the president make we too support una? Una turn una sef to James aramatias the armoured bearer who cares other people problem for head and abadon his own problem.

You’re still in another reality if you think people will base the 2027 elections on tribe and religion.

Nobody is doing Igbos a favour by voting Obi. Let that sink in. Delusional fellow.

dragunov:
This is Seyi Tinubu's initiative. Have you ever seen the grand master himself involved in this? Edo state is locked down for Tinubu and there's nothing you can do about it. Let it sink in. Obi will never be president.

una too like delusion.

Oluwaseunomo:
Very soon Dem go impeach this Trump guy even America govt are tired of him, am not sure they'll wait till the midterm elections before they boot him out. The guy dey suffocate them what a terrible person

Day dreamer. Continue dreaming about a man in another continent while you’re here.