This is a very bias analysis from one of APC Media dogs.

Tinubu has SW on stronghold but Obi doesn't have SE on stronghold?

And saying Tinubu will clear NC is another false thing to say,the fact that Kwankwaso wasn't included in the NW by the is another false assumptions.

Yorubas will give block votes to Tinubu but igbos won't give block votes to Obi and Northerners won't give block votes to Atiku? It must be ment.

The author even went as far as saying that Tinubu's vote will exceed that of Atiku and Obi combined,what kind of weed are you people smoking in that APC for God's sake?

The are regions Obi will perform NW/NE. The mistake most people make is joining NC together with the core Northern states forgetting that NC don't usually go the same way with core North.

There will be fierce competition in the NE between Atiku and APC will Kwankwaso will join the competition in the NW. Obi already have the SE on lock entirely and is about to dislodge PDP in SS. Being the only major Christian comes with it's peck with regards to votes from the NC. Abuja will definitely go his way and he won't perform poorly in Nasarawa and Benue.

I still think Atiku is the favorite but Obi is definitely not a walk over in next year's election.

The only people talking about sit at home are people not reside in the southeast.

Those of us here know that there is movement in the southeast.

omenka:
God bless you.

Seeing Igbos crying all over this thread makes me wonder if they themselves really see what they are doing. I mean, how do you expect Yorubas to vote your own when you people have filed behind your own tribesman?

So silly.

But you expect Northerners to vote Tinubu ahead of Atiku and Kwankwaso?

BATified2023:
nobody cares

Let everyone support their own

The only reason you are saying everyone should support their is because you think Northerners will vote for Tinubu.

If this election goes tribal Northerners will vote Atiku, SS will string along with SE,your Tinubu will come third

BATified2023:
madness is when u don’t check history to know that

Northerners voted
Abiola instead of tofa
Obj instead of buhari
Jonathan instead of buhari


Buhari would have still lost out again if not for alliance with tinubu

Northerners are more of political calculations n not emotions,they are more logical
Atiku winning d election means 16 straight years of northern rule meaning they will b out of power for 16 straight years again

Atiku winning d election means Fulani ruling straight for 16 years which u know it’s nearly impossible

U n I know d north love power n they can’t afford to lose it like that,they prefer to use 8 years n give it to a southerner they trust like we saw in the case of ekweme and obj

Northerners will prefer a Yoruba than an Igbo they can’t trust

Northerners never voted for anyone ahead of Buhari.

Buhari has always won the core North hands down.

BigSarah:


By the time Tinubu campaigns starts showing promise, the SESS will realistically look at the chances, before December all will be known.

It's in the best interest of SESS that APC doesn't return, SESS are more against MM than fulani man, that's why they want atiku to go for a single term

What promises do you think will change the minds of educated southerners? One dollar to one naira? No ASUU strike? Good roads?


The truth is people see Atiku and Tinubu as one and the same,I have been in the SE almost all my life, people down here see Fulani leadership as bad as Muslim Muslim ticket. I am part of one of Obi's biggest grassroot mobilization group,I have interacted with numerous people in the SE and SS,I can tell you that they cannot choose Fulani man not after the rampage of Fulani herdsmen during the leadership of Buhari.

BTW any politically inclined person knows that Atiku would never do one term,he didn't contest six times for that. If he had agreed to do one term then wike would have squashed their beef.

nnewsnjobs:
Seun is not stable at all, today is Tinubu, tomorrow is Obi

But he forgot that the southern votes will be evenly distributed among the three candidates while the northern votes cannot be evenly distributed due to their voting pattern, although they will not be very high bloc votes this time around.

My prediction is in this order

Northern votes

Atiku--------------------------------45%
Tinubu-----------------------------30%
Obi----------------------------------15%
Kwankwaso and others -----10%


Southern votes
Tinubu-----------------------------35%
Obi----------------------------------32%
Atiku--------------------------------30%
Kwankwaso and others------3%

The winner is going to emerge with small margin. Atiku is going to be the winner.

2023 presidential election results between the winner and the runner up will look exactly like the last Osun governorship election result.

Tinubu will get more southern votes than Peter Obi?

BigSarah:


The SESS have a VP candidate in this election already, so there's no reason to go for a wild goose chase and loose two ways,.

If PO doesn't garner real electoral momentum like Gej in 2011, SESS will abandon him, even he himself will drop out

Lol thinking Okowa wields any influence in this election might means you don't really know Politics as much as you think you do.

You are based in the north so maybe you don't really know the level of Politics in the SS/SE. Imagine thinking Southeasterns will vote for a Fulani after eight years of Fulani leadership or vote for a Muslim Muslim ticket because of lack of "momentum" like you choose to put it.

Everyone knows this,if Tinubu's wife and children love him then they should tell him to step down because of his health but then they are as greedy as the man himself.

frank14011991:
.where obi want see 25% for kaduna. You think because there are Christian's in kaduna they will vote for obi

I don't know but my friends there keep telling me that.

They might be wrong Sha but who knows?

Nyamuri:
Bro, it's a simple truth and fact that can't be disputed, no need in lying to you!! What he said pure truth... L.P. is not known in the north, don't let that 1m walk deceive

PO won't get 25% in any of the northern state including NC... the election is between Tinubu and Atiku in the north

You know Abuja is a North Central state right?

Or Peter Obi wouldn't get 25 percent votes in Abuja as well?

Kyase:


Nope
I’m from Benue and I know what I’m saying, Obi can’t win Benue in labour, do you know how strong both apc and pdp are in Benue, unless Akume did not work for Tinubu, APC is likely to win Benue with the help of labour

You keep hoping on elite politicians to deliver the state,it is not going to be so if the people are against it.

Last presidential election Willie Obiano worked for Buhari/APC in Anambra state even went as far as releasing funds for votes buying but Buhari still had the lowest votes in Anambra state.


I am not from Benue so I cannot tell you the political Atmosphere there but hoping on politicians to deliver for their party is not a wise decision not now that there wouldn't be ballot box stealing and coalition of results in different coalition centres.

garfield1:


He will lose woefully in Kaduna.it is between tinubu and atiku.25% go hard

I cannot tell if Obi will win kaduna but 25 percent wouldn't be hard.

Lol Buhari won last election with about 14 million votes but 12 million new registration won't alter anything?

Fashola is scared that his master Tinubu wouldn't be getting anything from the 12 million new votes,they have already planned out vote buying strategy but the emergence of Peter Obi will hinder their evil plans.

Anambra.
President: Labour party.
Senate: Labour party.
Rep: APGA.

Atiku is not serious about his campaign strategy,he should be visiting the south to establish a strong presence there.

I am beginning to think he's not in the race, Nigerians should vote for Peter Obi because we cannot afford to allow APC come back.

haslaw:



I am not an APC person but i have to let you know that only an unwise politician will not respect the bulk electoral value of Borno state.

Borno state alone has a larger electoral value than all the SE states put together. Go to INEC website and you will find out that SE has little electoral value.

Lol Borno doesn't have more electoral value than Anambra state.

It is now obvious that most media firms in this country are working for Tinubu/APC.

Banditry and terrorism won't affect APC/PDP In the north,Yoruba nation agitations led by Sunday Igboho won't affect Tinubu in the Southwest. But agitations in the southeast will affect Peter Obi.

They keep saying Obi is not a threat but everyday they come up with one nonsense or the other against him,one would think that they would ignore him and face their so-called threats.

Peter Obi has brought a different Dynamics to the Nigeria Political spheres and they hate him for that.

Northerners will turn APC to Asiwaju political Congress.

It is rookie mistake to bank on Northerners,they will never abandon their own for another person.

This race is between Atiku and Obi.

You can help everyone except yourself.

Shameless SUG president.

garfield1:


Has it occurred to you that it is a trick to divert attention and make other parties lose their guard? Forget about osun,look at what is happening currently.

So it was also a trick that made Andy uba fail woefully in Anambra state election,it was also a trick that made APC depend fully on vote buying in ekiti instead of employing their ghost voters.

garfield1:


He will always win osun plus his cousin is weak.stopping obi from getting good votes in IMO is more important

Adeleke winning Osun state has made PDP stronger in the state. 22 APC governors plus BAT himself came to campaign in an election that is not important.

Imo state with the lowest new registration in the south is more important than Tinubu's state of origin? is this what you want an adult to believe?

garfield1:


How you dey reason? Is it everywhere apc will rig? There are some places there can afford to lose

So they can rig everywhere except Tinubu's state of origin?

How una take dey reason for God's sake.

garfield1:


Osun wasn't important

An incumbent who happens to be the cousin of APC national leader Bola Tinubu is not important?

Tinubu lost a state in his stronghold but you think it is not important, Osun is not important but imo state is important?

garfield1:


Oga,they are ways to these.bvas has several weaknesses.it is a programme and can be manipulated

So why did APC not bypass BVAS in Osun state?

Kyase:
If you’ll pay I will gladly I don’t render my service for free

You are yarning dust.
Your ghost voters were no where to be found when APC/Oyetola needed it the most.

garfield1:


Oga,they were registered with that same bvas

Lol with whose details?

You can't even be registered twice, BVAS will detect you not to talk of 45,000 registration in one ward.

Kyase:


You are still learning
You mean angry Ipobians and some confuse set and clouts chasing mofos?

Give details of how your ghost voters will beat BVAS Machine. Be logical and leave insult.

Kyase:


You still don’t get abi

Those are ghost voters
And you don’t know how many million ghost voters these two big parties have

When I said Tinubu has standby 7 million votes, una think say i Dey joke

So how will your ghost voters bypass BVAS Machine?

The only thing that will work for PDP and APC is vote buying. And angry Nigerians won't sell their votes.

Obi will get majority Christian votes while Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso will share Muslim votes amongst themselves.

Peter Obi's vice is from kaduna, southern kaduna indigenes are being terrorized by Fulani herdsmen, majority of them are Christians,they will not vote for Fulani or Muslim Muslim ticket.

Anybody that thinks Obi is not in strong contention in kaduna is naive.