₦airaland Forum

Locotrader:
Our review on Ellah lakes will go viral this weekend.
I believe their will be press lease next week by the mgt.
This is the only way we can help ourselves not praising a company you don't know the plans they have for shareholders and shareholders are holding unto palm trees and fruits as okomu and presco are known for that.

Why is okomu and presco not practicing digital Agriculture

Audio and real are not same.Let them release corporate announcements on their farms let's review and know our stand on it.

One of the cheapest stock tempting investors at the floor now is Ellah lakes but traders are the one to use it and dump while my brother Nosa is having an investment mind.

Just did a quick check, Presco and Okumu both did over 20bn in revenues as at 2017. So I do not know what excuse Ellah has. They bought Telluria in 2019. Oil palm matures in 5-7 years. So it should have matured by now all things being equal. Their next financial result will be very important.

HesInMe:
Ol' boy. Dis kain financial report.

Revenue of 2Q ending Jan 2025 is much larger than for the year to Jan 2025. Cash flow reported only for period till July 2024 vs. 2023 (typo?).

And I thought Chams was bad. After seeing Ellah, I owe Chams an apology.

Repeat after me: There is fire on the mountain...

My 2 cents based on the Q2 2025 unaudited financial statements of Ellah Lakes Plc:

1. Reasons Given for Slow Growth

- Immature Biological Assets: The management has clearly indicated that they are waiting for their palm plantation to enter maturity. This is consistent with the steady build-up of biological assets, primarily in palm plantations and livestock, which have not yet begun generating meaningful revenue.

- Minimal Revenue Base: For the 6 months ended 31 Jan 2025, revenue was only ₦18.97 million. This suggests the company is still in a pre-revenue or early-revenue phase.

- High Cost Structure Without Corresponding Income:

I - Administrative expenses: ₦171 million

II - Personnel expenses: ₦220 million

III - Finance costs: ₦13 million

These are substantial relative to revenue, contributing to the ₦396.6 million loss for the period.

- Ongoing Deleveraging and Capital Raising: The company notes a recent private placement following a rights issue aimed at deleveraging.

2. Biological Assets Breakdown
As of 31 Jan 2025:

- Palm Plantations: ₦583.8 million (75%)

- Livestock: ₦195.5 million (25%)

- Total Biological Assets: ₦779.3 million

There was no fair value gain recognized this quarter, indicating either stable valuations or absence of revaluation activity.

3. Indicative Fair Value Per Share Estimate (Conservative View)

Approach: Net Asset Value (NAV) Basis
- Equity (NAV): ₦19.95 billion

- Shares Outstanding: 2,753,786,788

- NAV per Share = ₦19.95bn / 2.75bn ≈ ₦7.24

Adjustments & Considerations:

Revaluation Surplus of ₦14.9 billion is mostly non-cash (e.g., land), and should be discounted if you're pricing based on tangible or near-term earnings potential.

Stripping Revaluation:

Adjusted NAV = ₦19.95bn - ₦14.93bn = ₦5.02bn

Adjusted NAV/share ≈ ₦1.82

Current Fair Value Range

Optimistic (incl. land revaluation): ₦7.24

Conservative (excl. land revaluation): ₦1.82

Given the early stage of biological asset maturity, persistent operating losses, and lack of current revenue traction, a fair valuation range is likely between ₦1.50 and ₦2.50 per share in the near term until the plantations reach maturity and generate cash flows.

However, if they reach maturity by 2026, expect the following:
Fair Value Range (Post-Maturity)

Scenario Fair Value
- Conservative (DCF + buffer for delays/risks) ₦5.50 – ₦6.50
- Base Case (as projected) ₦7.52
- Optimistic (higher CPO prices or yield) ₦9.00 – ₦10.00+

My View:
A ₦6.00 – ₦7.50/share range is a reasonable base case 1 year from now, assuming no major execution failure. The upside is capped by ongoing operational inefficiencies and the need to manage scaling.

I didn't want post to be long hence why i summarised, but if you need my assumptions I am happy to post a follow up. Happy Sunday

Yoursfaithful:
It's going now..check again ..once you update the CHN,email,contact and Stockbroker house submit and refresh the page ..should bring an icon that its okay 👍

With that you can't edit again.

The whole process makes no sense. Once you finish, the details you provide become public information. Now anyone can see your email, CHN and phone number lol

ndept:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43854_LAFARGE_AFRICA_PLC.-CORPORATE_DISCLOSURE__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_APRIL_2025.pdf

N4 interim dividend as predicted.

cc. @sunrisepebble

Is Lafarge still paying 2024 dividend tomorrow? If they are, that's insane back to back dividends

dangle:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43800_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2025.pdf

Gross Earnings ₦4.88 trillion
Profit After Tax (PAT) ₦642.2 billion
Earnings per Share (EPS) ₦16.71 (1,671 kobo)
Total Equity (Group) ₦3.76 trillion
Total Assets ₦41.5 trillion
Return on Equity (ROE) 17.1%
Total Impaired Loans ₦368.2 billion
Loan Impairment Ratio 2.76%
Proposed Final Dividend ₦2.05/share
Shares Outstanding 53.32 billion shares

They tried, but could have been more efficient

zendi:
I want from your data base the estimated period of quarterly results releases. Just the quarterlies. There is money to be made trading better/worse than expected results.

You have to ambush the results.
If you wait to see before you Ji, insider traders who had positioned before you will dump on you.
I used to enjoy this service from the defunct Stockswatch Magazine.

Also I want from your database the updating of the outstanding shares of these banks as they're churning them out.

I'm not serious about this. You're not in the biz of spoonfeeding speculators, when it's not paid service. Each mallam with his own research.

It actually does a whole lot more than this. We basically created an automated way to monitor the market on a daily basis. Unusual volumes to track insiders, heat map for where prices are strongest, market cap in naira and usd terms to check which is under valued or overvalued etc.

Adebbie:
Is this available online? I'm looking to write a weekly column and was hoping for something I can always pull.

Oh, if that's your goal then use the official ngx "weekly report" to do your updates. Link: https://ngxgroup.com/exchange/data/market-report/

Adebbie:
Where's the most up to date source for following the biggest gainers and loosers on the ngx each week?

I have a database for this. Just ask for any timeline/week/period and i will post for you. Will also include most volume and value traded for that period.

shonyboi:
Well he used to buy shares for us , i.e my siblings and mum, when we were kids( the days of share certificates and dividends being sent as cheques to post office boxes). My dad was retired in 2010 but he was still able to send me and my siblings to very good institutions for our undergrad years with his investments. Out of all of us my elder sister is the one that is more enlightened and active in the market partly due to her educational background in finance. To answer your question only two out of the rest of the kids like to discuss investment with him. The shares he got for me was what I used to sponsor myself abroad for my masters (He told me that I should pay for my masters myself that during his time his parents only sent him to secondary school and that he has fulfilled his duty by sending me to Uni for undergrad ) and for that I am very grateful because it was the way he passed on responsibility of the investments to me.
The last statement and the fact that I kept on getting dividends every year from GTB that were quite reasonable is what piqued my interest in the capital market. In trying to be more informed a google search made me stumble on this page. I usually ask him what he thinks about some of the discussions here and we converse about it.

Your dad is a great guy

Happy new year! Wish you more wins in 2025

Ginalex:
Eku market o from my husband and I 🌚🌝

Congratulations!!@@, 2024 had to be the record for most marriages.

KarlTom:
Bagwa. Bovali. Awesomej

It's been a while.
Trust you're good...

Enjoying the dividends of my labour . Compliments of the season!

Mpeace:
But they are only taking 2million shares. I think they only want to comply with the provisions of the law.

This is the summary. By regulation, they are required to do the offer.

Health3:
Our ogas in the house, please what is the implication of this notice?

Summary of Key Points from the Tender Offer Document

Mandatory Tender Offer (MTO) Overview
- Offeror: HH Capital Limited.
- Target: Acquisition of up to 2,032,399 ordinary shares in Transnational Corporation Plc (Transcorp), representing 0.02% of its issued share capital.
- Purpose: Comply with regulatory requirements after HH Capital's ownership in Transcorp exceeded 30%.
- Offer Period:
Opens: December 23, 2024.
Closes: January 10, 2025.
- Consideration: Cash payment at a 0.25% premium on the opening price of Transcorp shares on the offer opening date.
- Shareholding Post-MTO:
If fully subscribed, HH Capital and its related parties will hold 35.96% of Transcorp.

Eligibility and Acceptance
- Who Can Accept: All qualifying shareholders of Transcorp as of December 12, 2024, excluding HH Capital and its related parties.
- Conditions for Acceptance:
Shares must be free from encumbrances.
No ongoing litigation or investigations against the tendered shares.
- Withdrawal Rights: Shareholders can withdraw their acceptance before 5 PM on January 2, 2025.
- Settlement: Payments will be made via electronic transfer within five business days after the closing date.

Taxation Implications
1. Gains from the sale are subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) in Nigeria.
2. No Stamp Duty is applicable due to exemptions for share transfers.

Oversubscription and Undersubscription
- Oversubscription: Shares will be acquired on a pro-rata basis.
- Undersubscription: Only shares tendered will be acquired.

Regulatory Compliance
- The offer complies with the Investments and Securities Act (ISA) and SEC regulations.


Possible Actions for Shareholders
1. Accept the Offer:

- If you find the offer price fair and do not foresee better prospects for Transcorp under HH Capital’s ownership.
- To liquidate shares for immediate cash.

2. Refuse the Offer:

- If you believe Transcorp’s valuation will increase under HH Capital’s management or the offer price undervalues your shares.
- To retain a stake in Transcorp and benefit from future growth.

3.Seek Professional Advice:

If unsure, consult a financial advisor, stockbroker, or tax consultant to understand the financial and tax implications based on your circumstances.

4. Monitor HH Capital’s Future Plans:

Keep an eye on post-MTO developments, especially regarding share price movements, corporate governance, and any potential delisting attempts.

5.Participate Partially:

Tender a portion of your shares while retaining some to balance immediate liquidity and future growth potential.

Mpeace:
This your link looks very dangerous. E resemble the link wey dem use hack my facebook the other time

lol twitter is now x. You dont need to log in to view the tweet

https://x.com/borie_nla/status/1868939314421494056

This is the problem with investing in nigeria. I hope Okomu can overcome this

Sunrisepebble:
I was just about to confirm. Yes, It’s 1 for 2, heard from a broker friend of mine

Permit me to play devils advocate small. Cause i want to connect the dots. If the debt is being settled with the shares the debtors own, would that not be a good enough reason for the debtor to pump share price to justify the value of their shares for the debt being owed? e.g. from 6 to almost 90. After they used us to play games with delisting.

Anyway, key things i am interested in based on what wale said:
- Oando has enough gas reserves to last nigeria for 75 years, majority of which is currently being exported
- Apart from the shares that will be distributed, he promised to pay shareholders a minimum of 50bn annually going forward. This has nothing to do with shareholders equity and will be run similarly to how they pay 1% of PBT to their charity.
- They have completely hedged themselves from any fx losses as over 90% of their earnings are in USD.

NFA

megawealth01:
I love this current speaker. The guy is saying the gospel truth to Wale

True. Only him and the other guy with the aeroplane analysis did well

On this oando agm, all I’ll say is some of these shareholders are weapons fashioned against the company. Rather than hold management accountable they’re doing eye service

crownprince2017:
I wondered why people disturb themselves with what is none of their business.
What concerns me or you with with someone's gender on a faceless forum when you are not having any business transactions together.

This type of attack is uncalled for and should be stopped to avoid derailing the forum from it primary objectives. After all, nobody is paying anybody for any service here.

Bovali and and others have right to share their opinions on any stock without any boundaries.

It's your choice to make decisions.

Wapco valuation without buyout is around 70-75, next q results will clear all doubts.

Plan your trade and trade your plans.

Ignore please. Proverbs 17:27-28 "He who restrains his words has knowledge, And he who has a cool spirit is a man of understanding. Even a fool, when he keeps silent, is considered wise; When he closes his lips, he is considered prudent"
Don't waste words. Not everybody is happy that you're making money, when road is difficult for them to see.

Last last, silence is the best answer for a fool. We leave the rest to Mr. time

@Crownprince, do you have an estimate to what the dilution will be on ellah lakes please? See number 11

crownprince2017:
You see that dollars issue, banks are criminals in that aspect, having a platform devoid of banks manipulation is a welcome development plus the dollars that will be saved from importation of pms, naira is bound to appreciate, if anyone doubt it, keep accumulating dollars like before. Maybe valuable lessons are just about to be learnt.


At Bovali, what do you see about sugar currently?

I'm long term so I don't mind averaging down for now. All it takes is another news of merger and it will rallying again.

Wapco on offer and no one wants to buy again? Adding more for myself.

ositadima1:
I think the issue with his calculation is quite different from what you explained. Assuming x dollars represents 100% buyout of the shares and y is the total number of shares, the result will be the same whether you divide x by y or calculate 17% of x divided by 17% of y, as the 17% cancels out. One of you must be making a mistake since both approaches should lead to the same number. This discrepancy between 180 and 400 is absurd.

Why don’t you all give it a rest and let things play out naturally?"

Don't know what issue you have with me. It is not like we are spamming the page. You see us genuinely trying to do something that matters and you're telling us to rest. If it bothered you so much you could have skipped the post. its not my fault if maths is hard to understand for you. Will ignore your posts going forward. You're too aggressive.

bovali:
You're over calculating this thing. Read the document released. They acquired 83% at a 10% valuation of 1bn. Not that they acquired 100% for 1bn. They still need minority shareholder approval for the rest. And based of what they provided in their own statement, they value the company at 1.1-1.6. What you are doing is neglecting outstanding shares and using funny analysis to come up with figures.

Think of it this way, if they already have 83%, why would they pay 761.87mn for balance 17%. That 761 should be pro-rated for the 100%. I hope i am explaining this thing well lol

I've put it in numbers to explain better. @sunrise let me know if this clarifies.

Sunrisepebble:
"Vendor conditionally agreed to sell, and the Purchasers conditionally agreed to acquire, 100% of the issued shares of the Target Companies for an aggregate purchase price of USD 838.13 million" This is based on Holcims 83.81% stake. The total transaction is $1bn from all the articles we have seen in the news. Although I dont think Hoaxing have stated that in the document. Admittedly I only glanced through for key points

I think they are paying below the valuation. If $1.1bn is then paid, it means the final consideration for the minority shareholder (100-83.81%) is $261,87mn (1.1bn-838mn) which is N169 per share, if it is based on $1.6bn then it is a final consideration of $761.87mn(1.6bn-838mn) which translates to N491 per share, which I highly doubt. If the 1bn is for the majority alone then it comes to N124 per share

Like I said yesterday. I no too sabi book so I could very much be in the wrong

You're over calculating this thing. Read the document released. They acquired 83% at a 100% valuation of 1bn. Not that they acquired 100% for 1bn. They still need minority shareholder approval for the rest. And based of what they provided in their own statement, they value the company at 1.1-1.6. What you are doing is neglecting outstanding shares and using funny analysis to come up with figures.

Think of it this way, if they already have 83%, why would they pay 761.87mn for balance 17%. That 761 should be pro-rated for the 100%. I hope i am explaining this thing well lol

Sunrisepebble:
From the available information we have, I think we can safely come to that conclusion. $838m is being paid as final consideration to Holcim for their stake. The total transaction is $1bn. Working backwards from there gives that price. Unless there’s something I am missing ?

They bought majority for 1bn, does not mean minority will sell for 1bn. In the statement the chinese company released, they set a valuation range of 1.1 -1.6bn. So your 104 is actually minimum amount. There should be a premium on that which is yet to be decided.
Purchas price in USD = 1,000,000,000.00
Naira value using 1,700 = 1,700,000,000,000.00
OS = 16,108,000,000.00
Target = 105.5376211 (It becomes 104 at an exchange rate of 1675.232)

bovali:
Detailed report on the wapco acquisition from the hong kong exchange:
https://en.huaxincem.com/upload/20241201/1ie0scte65oe1o6go.pdf

So based of this report, my analysis is as follows:

Acquisition Details
New Ownership: Huaxin Cement (China) is acquiring 83.81% of WAPCO through a major transaction, which may lead to a 100% takeover.
Valuation: Enterprise value estimated at $1.1 - $1.6 billion based on EBITDA multiples and asset valuations.
Future Strategy: Huaxin Cement aims to improve operational performance and achieve targeted returns through integration and enhanced management

Key Inputs
- Outstanding Shares: 16.108 billion shares
- Exchange Rate: 1 USD = 1,700 NGN
- Enterprise Value (EV): Range $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion
- Net Debt: $1 million (debt) - $53 million (cash) = $52 million net cash (improves equity value)

Calculation Steps
Equity Value = EV + Net Cash
Equity Value in NGN = Equity Value (USD) × Exchange Rate
Share Price (NGN) = Equity Value in NGN / Outstanding Shares

Calculations
For EV = $1.1 billion:
Equity Value: $1,100M + $52M = $1,152M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,152M × 1,700 = ₦1,958,400M
Share Price: ₦1,958,400M / 16.108B = ₦121.62

For EV = $1.6 billion:
Equity Value: $1,600M + $52M = $1,652M
Equity Value (NGN): $1,652M × 1,700 = ₦2,808,400M
Share Price: ₦2,808,400M / 16.108B = ₦174.39

Potential Share Price Range
Lower Target: ₦121.62
Upper Target: ₦174.39

Detailed report on the wapco acquisition from the hong kong exchange:
https://en.huaxincem.com/upload/20241201/1ie0scte65oe1o6go.pdf

Omooloriredade:
Not immediately but eventually. Refer disclosure shared by @Sunrisepebble.

Thanks. Missed this

bovali:
If they are willing to pay this much for this then how much would the Chinese pay for Waco?

https://x.com/bloombergafrica/status/1863154028307165690?s=46&t=S-fB0C8yRxjxeCDpRFi4rw

Correction: it’s actually Wapco being sold for 1bn usd

Also, they do not plan to delist after acquisition