₦airaland Forum

mails4funshi:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42575_OANDO_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_[b][/b]FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2024.pdf

Key takeaway: They are not delisting

Current Equity Talks and Debt Management:

• Equity Raising: The company has indicated that it is in active discussions with potential equity investors. This step is part of its broader plan to bridge the funding shortfall that remains after debt refinancing. Management has noted that these equity injections are crucial for covering approximately 46.4% of the funding gap that will not be resolved through debt restructuring alone.
• Debt Refinancing: While refinancing existing debt is a significant part of Oando’s strategy, this alone is expected to address only about 53.6% of the funding gap for the fiscal year ending December 2024. The success and timing of these equity talks are crucial, as delays or failures could significantly impact the company’s financial health and ability to continue as a going concern.

GRACEGLORY:
Avax, SUI

I read this thread once every 2 weeks just to see what calls would be like had I taken action at the time and I have to say, You’re really good. Only account so far with 80%+ accuracy

GRACEGLORY:
It's not about what people mention or not, bro. It's about your conviction.

FTM is a Super-utility coin. Hit over a dollar about few months back before this correction. These are long term projects.

LTC is going to have a tear as usual, these coins are just recovering from their best markets...


It's your risk tolerance you need to increase.

Good call on FTM

chimex38:
The 6month rule is it Prior to Announcement by the company or Prior to AGM?

Or probably this your case is different since it originated from shareholders and not management?

Na NGx rule book go clarify.

The confusion between the price before the Annual General Meeting (AGM) and the price before the announcement of delisting often arises due to a misunderstanding of key events in a company’s lifecycle. Here are some reasons for this confusion:

1. Timing of Key Events

In many cases, companies make important announcements during or shortly after AGMs, such as mergers, restructuring plans, or even delisting intentions. This can lead some shareholders to believe that the share price just before the AGM is relevant for determining the exit price, especially if the delisting is announced shortly afterward. However, AGM announcements and delisting announcements are distinct events, and the rules specifically require using the price before the delisting announcement, not the AGM.

2. Misinterpretation of Company Motions

During an AGM, a company may propose a motion for voluntary delisting, but this is often just the first step. The actual delisting announcement may come later, once approvals from the stock exchange and regulatory bodies are secured. People might confuse the proposal made at the AGM with the formal announcement of delisting, leading them to mistakenly focus on the share price before the AGM, instead of the share price at the time of the delisting announcement.

3. AGMs Often Signal Major Changes

AGMs are critical moments where companies disclose significant financial and strategic plans, including dividends, board changes, or potential delisting. Since shareholders associate AGMs with these key decisions, they might incorrectly assume that the share price before the AGM is more relevant, especially if the delisting is hinted at during this period.

4. Market Reactions Around AGMs

Share prices often experience volatility around AGMs due to speculation about potential announcements. Shareholders might focus on the price leading up to the AGM, thinking it reflects the company’s latest position. However, the rules clearly specify that it’s the average price over the last 6 months before the official delisting announcement, not before the AGM, that is used to determine the buyback price.

5. Lack of Clarity in Communication

In some cases, companies may not clearly distinguish between AGM decisions and subsequent actions, like delisting. If shareholders are not well-informed about the delisting process and the specific rules governing exit pricing, they might assume the AGM-related share price is the reference point.

In summary, the confusion arises because the AGM is often seen as a turning point for major corporate decisions, but the share price before the AGM is not the relevant figure. Instead, the average price over the last six months before the formal delisting announcement is the correct benchmark according to the NSE rules. Clear communication from the company and a proper understanding of the delisting process can help avoid these misunderstandings.

Saw this financials but after my analysis my excitement was short lived:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42190_EUNISELL_INTERLINKED_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_SEPTEMBER_2024.pdf

Valuation of Eunisell Interlinked Plc: A Comprehensive Analysis

In this post, I will analyze the potential stock price of Eunisell Interlinked Plc using 10 different valuation methods. Each method provides a different perspective, offering a range of valuations depending on market conditions and financial performance.

1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share (EPS). Using an EPS of ₦0.4228, I applied three different P/E multiples to arrive at the following price ranges:

• Worst Case (P/E = 3x): ₦1.27
• Base Case (P/E = 6x): ₦2.54
• Best Case (P/E = 9x): ₦3.80

2. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio

This method evaluates the stock based on the company’s Net Asset Value (NAV) per share of ₦1.25. Applying P/B multiples:

• Worst Case (P/B = 0.8x): ₦1.00
• Base Case (P/B = 1.2x): ₦1.50
• Best Case (P/B = 1.6x): ₦2.00

3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model

Using the EBITDA of ₦145.25 million and a WACC of 20%, the DCF provides a valuation of the company’s future cash flows. Here are the estimated share prices:

• Worst Case: ₦5.00
• Base Case: ₦10.00
• Best Case: ₦15.00

4. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Eunisell hasn’t paid dividends for over 22 years, so DDM is not applicable.

5. Asset-Based Valuation

This method evaluates the stock using the company’s total equity and net assets. With confirmed total equity of ₦295.87 million and 236.7 million shares outstanding, the asset-based valuation produces:

• Worst Case: ₦1.25
• Base Case: ₦1.50
• Best Case: ₦2.00

6. Earnings Growth Model

This method was skipped due to the lack of historical earnings data.

7. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio

Using the revenue of ₦722.53 million and the number of shares outstanding:

• Worst Case: ₦1.00
• Base Case: ₦1.50
• Best Case: ₦2.00

8. Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)

With an enterprise value of ₦833.4 million and EBITDA of ₦145.25 million, the EV/EBITDA estimates are:

• Worst Case: ₦4.00
• Base Case: ₦8.00
• Best Case: ₦12.00

9. Relative Valuation (Comparables)

This method was skipped cause can’t find comparables. Maybe you guys can help?

10. Economic Value Added (EVA)

Using NOPAT of ₦100.071 million, WACC of 20%, and the company’s invested capital, the EVA model estimates:

• Worst Case: ₦4.00
• Base Case: ₦8.00
• Best Case: ₦12.00

Summary of Results:

• Worst Case Average: ₦2.06
• Base Case Average: ₦4.20
• Best Case Average: ₦6.48

chimex38:
Well, I thought this wont work since they issued the statement before the price will even get to 70 and above..

So the last 6 months prior to the statement is what counts.
(I stand to be corrected sha.)

Understanding the Use of the Last 6 Months Share Price in Delisting on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)

When a company is listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), its shares can be publicly traded, giving investors the opportunity to buy and sell shares freely. However, there are times when a company may choose to leave the stock exchange, a process known as delisting. In such cases, one important factor that affects shareholders is the share price used to compensate them when the company exits the market.

What is Delisting?

Delisting refers to the removal of a company’s shares from the stock exchange, meaning its shares will no longer be available for trading on the public market. Companies may choose to delist for several reasons, such as:

• Mergers and acquisitions
• Financial restructuring
• The company no longer meeting the exchange’s listing requirements
• Voluntary decisions by the company to go private

How Does the Last 6 Months Share Price Apply?

One of the key concerns for shareholders during a delisting process is getting fair value for their shares. According to the NSE rules, especially in cases of voluntary delisting, the share price over the last six months becomes important. Here’s why:

• Shareholder Buyback: In voluntary delisting situations, the company or its core shareholders often need to buy back the shares from minority shareholders who still own a stake in the company. This is to ensure that minority shareholders are not unfairly left behind.
• Determining the Exit Price: The exit price, or the price at which the company buys back shares, is determined by looking at the average market price of the company’s shares over the last six months before the delisting announcement, or the current market price—whichever is higher.

This rule helps protect minority shareholders by ensuring they get a fair price for their shares, based on historical trading activity. The aim is to avoid a situation where a company’s shares are delisted at a much lower value than what the market had been trading at over a reasonable period.

Why the 6-Month Period?

The reason the 6-month period is used is to ensure that the share price reflects a broad and fair assessment of the company’s value over time, rather than relying on short-term fluctuations or sudden drops in price. This period helps smooth out any short-term market volatility and provides a more stable measure of the company’s stock performance.

Key Takeaway for Shareholders

If you are a shareholder in a company that is about to be delisted from the Nigerian Stock Exchange, it is important to understand how the last 6 months’ share price will affect the compensation you receive for your shares. The average price over this period will be used to determine the exit price, ensuring that you get a fair value for your investment.

I’m guessing Flourmills was forced to announce before the price would reach 100 Naira lol.

chimex38:
@Sunrisepebble was right and spot on.. and we sincerely thank him/her for the insider insights.

Read line 3 of the Court Ordered Meeting below..
₦70 buyout price
Full link:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42176_FLOUR_MILLS_OF_NIGERIA_PLC-_NOTICES_OF_COURT_ORDER_MEETING_(COM)___COURT_ORDER_MEETING_(COM)_SEPTEMBER_2024.pdf

Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc Shareholders: What You Need to Know About the Upcoming Scheme of Arrangement

Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc is holding a Court-Ordered Meeting (COM) on November 14, 2024, where they’ll discuss and hopefully approve a Scheme of Arrangement. Below, I’ll break down what this means in simple terms.

What Is a Scheme of Arrangement?

Basically, Flour Mills of Nigeria is planning a major restructuring. Excelsior Shipping Company Limited (along with its subsidiary, Greywise Investment Solutions Limited) is buying out all the ordinary shares of Flour Mills at ₦70 per share. After this deal goes through, Flour Mills will no longer be listed on the Nigerian Exchange NGX).

Key Points for Shareholders:

1. Forced Buyout: If you hold shares in Flour Mills, you won’t have a choice. Your shares will automatically be sold at ₦70 each. Whether you like it or not, once the scheme is approved, you’ll receive the payout and no longer own shares in the company.
2. Delisting: Flour Mills will no longer be traded on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) once this process is completed. So, if you’re planning to trade Flour Mills shares in the future, that won’t be possible after the scheme takes effect.

Should You Buy the Shares Now?

• If the current price is below ₦70, there might be a small opportunity for profit. You could buy at a lower price and sell automatically when the buyout happens at ₦70 per share.
• However, if the market price is around or above ₦70, there’s no real point in buying more shares now. The buyout price is fixed, so there’s no upside.

What If You Already Hold the Shares?

• If you already own shares, it’s likely best to hold onto them until the scheme is finalized and you get paid ₦70 per share.
• But, if you think the market price might drop before the scheme goes through, you could sell early to lock in your gains. And re-buy at a lower price.

emmanuelewumi:
@Bovali, what multiple did you use for your Economic Value Added to arrive at your valuation based on EVA.


What did you use as your Weighted Average Cost of Capital?

I love short cuts, so I basically use 20% as my discount rate which is the average yield on a 10 year FGN bond

Went conservative cause most banks get free capital via deposits anyway. For the Economic Value Added (EVA) method, I used a placeholder value in the initial analysis without diving into the detailed calculations of the multiple or Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). Let me address both points in more detail now.

1. Multiple Used for EVA Valuation:

In the original calculation, I used estimated values for the EVA, but to properly calculate the EVA-based valuation, we should consider:

• EVA Formula:

EVA= ( {Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)} - ( {Capital Employed} X {WACC}) )

After calculating EVA, we would typically apply a multiple based on the company’s expected growth rate and market expectations to estimate the company’s value using EVA.

For the initial analysis, a rough EVA multiple of 6-8x was used as a placeholder. This was based on general market trends, where companies with modest profitability and steady growth rates often attract such multiples. However, this can vary significantly based on company performance and industry standards.

2. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC):

For financial institutions like banks, WACC typically accounts for both the cost of equity and the cost of debt, weighted according to their proportions in the bank’s capital structure.

The calculation of WACC would generally involve:

• Cost of Equity (using CAPM):

{Cost of Equity} = {Risk-Free Rate} + ({Beta} X {Equity Risk Premium})

• Cost of Debt: The average interest rate paid on the bank’s debt.

For Nigerian banks, you’d likely use:

• Risk-Free Rate: This could be based on the yield of Nigerian government bonds (say, 10-12%).
• Equity Risk Premium: For Nigerian equities, this could be relatively high, around 6-8%.
• Beta: Bank stocks in Nigeria tend to have a beta close to 1 (depending on market volatility).
• Cost of Debt: The average interest rates banks pay on their liabilities, usually in the 8-10% range. Remember my initial point about deposits carrying little to no cost of capital.

Based on rough estimates, a WACC for a Nigerian bank like Access Bank might range between 15-18%.

Raider76:
@bovali and @nosa2. Is stock valuation really useful on the NGX or is it mainly academic?

Truth is ngx is a weak market so will naturally react slow to information. I use a combination of TA and FA. I don’t look at fundamentals until I see good Technicals in play to support it.

Agbalowomeri:
Good job baby girl
However, you can hardly get any naija bank selling above PBV > 0.5
Dividend is important. I don't see ACCESS giving N3 so stock price would still hit resistance at that 30. However, I am almost sure that it can do a 30 by 3rd week of January (yes take it to the bank ) which is 50%. You notice how UBA has been hovering around 23/24. Na majority wey dey risk for 10% dividend. At all at all.... . Naija Banks will also hardly sell above P/E of 4 unless we see a RoE of 40%

Sorry to dampen your expectation. Na grey hair dey worry me Lol . Apart from FBNH sentiment, all banks will move together and the likelihood of better capital appreciation historically has been better with lower priced banks. It's just the way our psyche is conditioned in this market.

However, maybe we will get a new ololo trend this time.

I agree and disagree.
1. Price-to-Book Value (P/B):

Your argument states that it’s rare for Nigerian banks to trade above 0.5x P/B. However, based on the financials of Access Bank, this conclusion may not fully align with the bank’s performance. The bank’s total equity is ₦2.837 trillion and with 35.5 billion shares outstanding, the book value per share is ₦79.83.

At a recent stock price of ₦19 , the P/B ratio is 0.24x, well below 0.5x. However, Access Bank’s fundamentals are strong, with substantial profits and a return on equity (RoE) of about 10% based on net profits and equity. While it’s true that Nigerian banks often trade at a discount, the argument for P/B < 0.5x isn’t absolute, especially for a bank like Access, which has strong fundamentals and room to improve its stock price through profitability, dividend growth, or market sentiment changes.

The stock price at a P/B ratio of 0.5 would be approximately ₦39.92.

So, if Access Bank reaches a P/B of 0.5, the stock price could be around ₦39.92, reflecting its growth potential.

Moreover, the Nigerian economy is volatile, but it doesn’t permanently lock banks into a P/B under 0.5x. In best-case scenarios, such as those predicted with positive macroeconomic changes or more confidence in Nigeria’s fiscal policies, we might see the stock price move closer to ₦30, yielding a P/B ratio of 0.38x — still conservative, but albelow 0.5x.

2. Dividend Expectations:

Your comment suggests that Access Bank won’t give ₦3 per share in dividends. This point is debatable because dividends are highly dependent on earnings and capital allocation policies, both of which have been improving for Nigerian banks.

In the June 2024 financials, Access Bank posted a net profit of ₦281 billion. Given that they have approximately 35.5 billion shares, the potential earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 could reach around ₦7.9. Historically, Access Bank has distributed between 20-30% of earnings as dividends. Even at a payout ratio of 20%, dividends could be in the range of ₦1.5 to ₦2.0 per share for FY dividends.

The claim that dividends of ₦3 are unlikely is valid based on the current payout trends but doesn’t entirely discount improved profitability or future payout increases. Moreover, Nigerian banks have been known to surprise with special dividends in years of excess profitability. Therefore, while ₦3 may not be expected soon, dividends closer to ₦2 could still lead to an upward price move if investors value that stability.

3. P/E Ratio and Return on Equity (RoE):

Your argument about Nigerian banks rarely trading above P/E of 4 unless RoE exceeds 40% is too conservative given the data. Access Bank currently has an EPS of ₦7.61, which, at a share price of ₦19, results in a P/E ratio of around 2.5x, well below 4.

The question here is whether Access Bank can increase its P/E multiple. While it’s true that a P/E above 4 often requires an RoE approaching 40%, Nigerian banks don’t necessarily need to meet that extreme threshold.

• Access Bank’s RoE is currently around 10%, which is modest. However, given its profitability trajectory and strong asset base, there’s potential to push its P/E toward 4, even without hitting a 40% RoE. Moreover, a P/E of 4 is not an upper limit; we’ve seen cases in other African markets where banks with solid fundamentals and growth potential have traded above this, especially when confidence returns to the market.

In fact, as Access Bank expands regionally and grows non-interest income, it could significantly improve its RoE, pushing P/E multiples upward.

P.S, I don’t want wahala from your babe o

nosa2:
Does your EPS of N7.61 include FX gains?

Good question. Its does not. FX was added to revaluation

emmanuelewumi:
@Bovali is it possible to use Enterprise Value for financial institutions?


I think looking at a PE multiple of 12 for banking stock is too ambitious. Based on the historical average multiple in the last 5 years, I think a multiple of 6 is ideal

In most cases, Enterprise Value (EV) is less applicable to financial institutions, including banks, because of the unique structure of their balance sheets. Financial institutions typically have significant cash reserves, deposits, and liabilities that can distort traditional EV calculations, making it less informative compared to other sectors.

EV is commonly used in industries with significant capital expenditures or debt structures where the metric can better reflect a company’s total value by accounting for both debt and equity. However, for banks, the balance sheet items like deposits are core to their operations and not debt in the traditional sense (as it is for non-financial institutions).

Instead, financial institutions are more commonly valued using Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Book (P/B), and Return on Equity (ROE), which better reflect their performance and value. I added it to be as broad as possible.

On the P/E Multiple:

I agree with your assessment that a P/E multiple of 12 might be too ambitious for banking stocks, especially when compared to historical performance. Banking stocks usually trade at lower multiples due to regulatory requirements, interest rate sensitivities, and often slower growth rates compared to other sectors.

Historically, banks, especially in emerging markets like Nigeria, tend to trade at P/E multiples closer to 6, which aligns with more conservative growth expectations, heightened regulatory risks, and capital adequacy requirements. Therefore, using a 6x P/E multiple based on historical averages for the past five years seems more appropriate for a realistic base-case scenario. This reflects the general market sentiment and performance in the sector.

Used this Saturday to revisit the market ahead of q4 and there’s a lot of money to be made next quarter

Uchetoba:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42155_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC-CORPORATE_ACTIONS_ANNOUNCEMENT_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_SEPTEMBER_2024.pdf

Valuation of Access Bank’s Stock: A Comprehensive Analysis Using 10 Methods

In this post, I analyze the potential stock price of Access Bank, a major player in Nigeria’s banking industry, using 10 different valuation methods. For each method, I present a worst, base, and best-case scenario. This approach provides a well-rounded view of the stock’s valuation under various market conditions.

1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share (EPS). With an EPS of ₦7.61, I applied three different P/E multiples to arrive at potential price ranges.

• Worst Case (P/E = 4x): ₦30.44
• Base Case (P/E = 8x): ₦60.88
• Best Case (P/E = 12x): ₦91.32

2. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio

This method values the stock based on the net asset value of the company. It provides insights into how the market values the bank’s equity in relation to its actual assets.

• Worst Case (P/B = 0.8x): ₦63.86
• Base Case (P/B = 1.2x): ₦95.79
• Best Case (P/B = 1.6x): ₦127.72

3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model

The DCF model estimates the present value of the company’s future cash flows. This is one of the most comprehensive methods, often used for long-term valuations.

• Worst Case: ₦28.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦105.00

4. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a stock based on the present value of future dividend payments. This method is particularly useful for dividend-paying companies like Access Bank.

• Worst Case: ₦22.00
• Base Case: ₦50.00
• Best Case: ₦75.00

5. Asset-Based Valuation

In this method, I assess the value of the stock based on the company’s net assets (assets minus liabilities). This provides a conservative view of the stock price.

• Worst Case: ₦35.00
• Base Case: ₦60.00
• Best Case: ₦80.00

6. Earnings Growth Model

This approach forecasts the company’s future earnings and applies a multiple based on growth expectations.

• Worst Case: ₦25.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦85.00

7. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio compares the stock price to the company’s revenue per share. It’s useful when earnings are volatile or when valuing early-stage companies.

• Worst Case: ₦12.94
• Base Case: ₦32.34
• Best Case: ₦51.74

8. Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)

This method looks at the company’s enterprise value relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

• Worst Case: ₦30.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦100.00

9. Relative Valuation (Comparables)

Relative valuation compares Access Bank’s valuation multiples (like P/E and P/B) to its peers in the Nigerian banking sector. This method provides context by assessing how Access Bank compares to competitors.

• Worst Case: ₦27.00
• Base Case: ₦58.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

10. Economic Value Added (EVA)

EVA measures the company’s ability to generate returns above its cost of capital. This is a good indicator of the company’s profitability and long-term value creation.

• Worst Case: ₦32.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

Summary:

To provide a concise summary, I calculate the average share price across the 10 valuation methods for the worst, base, and best-case scenarios:

• Worst Case Average: ₦30.73
• Base Case Average: ₦59.90
• Best Case Average: ₦88.88

The current stock price of Access Holdings PLC (ACCESSCORP) as of September 20, 2024, is ₦19.00 per share, following a 3.06% decline from the previous day. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a low of ₦15.45 (September 28, 2023) to a high of ₦30.70 (January 18, 2024). This price trend reflects some volatility, with the stock trading closer to the lower end of its annual range recently. I expect another low to high cycle this September to January period again.

Given this context, the stock is currently trading well below the upper bounds projected in the best-case valuation but aligns more closely with some of the base-case valuations derived from the methods I used earlier. This highlights that the stock might have more growth potential if conditions improve, but it is still trading near recent lows.
Not financial advice. DYOR

bovali:
Saw this on Twitter

Who remembers this? Been tracking it since then so i can know when they finish selling that 1% from Nigeria which was primarily dangote cement. It seems they have finished offloading and have even taken the cash out of Nigeria. With this sell pressure off the table, i expect a turn around in dangcem share price before end of q4. You can access the data here: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239649/ishares-msci-frontier-100-etf

bovali:
Observe with me. Note: Not financial advise:
https://www.oandoplc.com/press_release/oando-energy-resources-completes-landmark-acquisition-of-conocophillips-nigerian-oil-and-gas-business-for-us1-5-billion/

https://www.oandoplc.com/press_release/oando-plc-completes-783-million-acquisition-of-enis-subsidiary-nigerian-agip-oil-company-naoc/
Cause I’ve seen so many back of the envelope calculations. Shine your eye. Go back to 2013/14 of this NSEMPA. No difference between then and now.

Mr Time. Seems someone has seen results

naturalflow:
Ymcy why do you always attack any Monika marked female?are you marking territory here?yayira comes to mind now bovi!

I’m happy that others are noticing this too. Like I’m not trying to steal your boyfriend. I’ve said it time and time again, I’m not selling any product. But once I post facts, she’s number one to attack me. One of the reasons I kept quiet the first time but no more. If you give me one I’ll give you 100 so your head can correct

Melcapital:
Thanks for sharing. I did not see the person that way nor think that they were referring to people who actually contribute to the forum, and that's the reason for my post. But now I see through your lens. My post wasn't meant to talk ill about your post either. More strength to the elbows of all of you who contribute from your knowledge and time.

Just ignore going forward. I’ve noticed they hate when people call out the truth or contrary opinions. Then they turn around to say it’s open forum etc. just being unnecessarily silly.

yMcy56:
You may have to get down your high horse sis.
Yes, that's how the saying goes but I don't think there's anything to warrant this here.....maybe I viewed the post from a perspective of you being arrogant or something anyway.

Loud noise as in people posting their views or being active here or being small investors?

No vex. I just don't understand ni o.
You can make me to understand if you don't mind.

I didn’t call your name. Don’t know why you’re triggered. Same way you were saying CWG is trying to meet free float just recently when they already concluded that in q2. It is well. It’s those that blindly follow you I pity. A broken clock is correct twice a day.

My observation so far is that empty barrels make the loudest noise

MARKETJJC:
Eagle eye mama. The person has been watering us with more as we queue for around 5 junction . It is being on last week. After he is done, it will move back to above 6, 7, 8.

I’m confused. Or is there a different free float requirement? Check last Page:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/41925_CWG_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2024.pdf

BullBearMkt:
I can only respond to the last part of your post. I have never lured anyone into taking a position in any stock. NEVER! And I never will I do that! [b] All my posts have been about showing opportunities when there is a pullback.[/b]

Oh no, don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying you’re luring o. No vex. I’m just saying too many people do follow follow without knowing the facts. If after all this, they still decide to invest, that’s fine too. After all, it’s not my money they are using. And no one has crystal ball. If you look at my initial post, you will see people rushing to buy at the top. Just using PE of 10 and their reported last EPS of 6, then one can conservatively assume a 60 Naira per share fair price. But let’s see how it goes. P.S, not responding to anymore Oando posts .

KarlTom:
...

https://gazettengr.com/atiku-demands-immediate-listing-of-nnpcl-on-stock-exchange-in-line-with-provisions-of-petroleum-industry-act/

Can anyone confirm that the PIA actually specified the listing?

Atiku is too funny lol. Politics in Nigeria is interesting sha.
1. Transition of NNPC to NNPC Limited:
• Section 53 (1): This section mandates the incorporation of a new entity, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Limited), which will take over the assets, interests, and liabilities of the NNPC.
2. Ownership and Shares:
• Section 53 (3): This section states that the ownership of all shares in NNPC Limited shall be vested in the Federal Government of Nigeria, to be held by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated and the Ministry of Petroleum Incorporated on behalf of the government.
• Section 53 (5): This section allows the government to transfer, sell, or dispose of shares held by the government in NNPC Limited, which opens the door to a potential public listing. But does not mandate it.
3. Listing on the Stock Exchange:
• Section 54 (1): This section suggests that NNPC Limited may seek to increase its capital by a public offer of shares or by a private placement, implying the potential for listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.
• Section 54 (2): This section reinforces the possibility of listing by stating that such offerings will be in accordance with the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) and the Investment and Securities Act.
4. Commercialization and Market Principles:
• Section 64 (a): This section requires that NNPC Limited operate on a commercial basis, ensuring profitability and accountability, which are prerequisites for any company considering listing on a stock exchange.

In summary, the PIA does not specify a timeline for NNPC Limited’s listing on the NSE, it does indicate that the government may choose to divest its shares to the public through an initial public offering (IPO).

BullBearMkt:
@bovali, with all due respect, there is a huge difference between the presented charts of OANDO in 2014 and OANDO in 2024. There might be some similar sentiment among retail investors, but in terms of 'smart money' sentiments, there is a huge difference between now and 2014.

2014
On the weekly, price closed above the swing high in the 2nd week of June, it was immediately rejected the following week and never recovered. The monthly outlook is even worse - never closed above the previous high (that's a negative signal)

2024
Having succesfully closed above 16 in July, price has since not looked back. Price also overcame a pause in momentum in the 2nd week of August and closed in a strong bull. A price pullback will likely struggle to go below the low of August 2nd week's low (technically).

There may possibly be some pullback, but as it stands, price is targeting above 90, market reactions at this level will determine the next direction
https://invst.ly/16bc4k (Oando MONTHLY 2024 FULL CHART)

You forget that anybody can now use phone and sign up to trade from the comfort of their home. So I expect a bigger bubble. You’re a TA guy, you monitor sentiment. Correct me if I’m wrong but what they paid 1.5bn for 20% is what they paid half price for now for another 20% 10 years later? Is Eni foolish? Read the financial statement, rather than dispute ENI just decided to waka pass. You’re a TA guy, you track sentiment. With more people in the market now, wouldn’t that inflate the bubble? My point is, if the ConocoPhillips deal was in 2024, you will see people converting the 1.5bn usd to naira and shouting the share price should be worth that amount. Again, not arguing o but even from a valuation perspective, I think luring anyone to enter now is a bit unfair

emmanuelewumi:
What led to this was the guy who gave a valuation based on the total asset.


Can you please help us with the current net asset after subtracting all the current liabilities from the total asset based on the last reported financial report of the company.


Thank you

Toluway:
I don join Oando team this morning. B4 it's too late. @25.47.

Observe with me. Note: Not financial advise:
https://www.oandoplc.com/press_release/oando-energy-resources-completes-landmark-acquisition-of-conocophillips-nigerian-oil-and-gas-business-for-us1-5-billion/

https://www.oandoplc.com/press_release/oando-plc-completes-783-million-acquisition-of-enis-subsidiary-nigerian-agip-oil-company-naoc/
Cause I’ve seen so many back of the envelope calculations. Shine your eye. Go back to 2013/14 of this NSEMPA. No difference between then and now.

Mankind2024:
Hi Bovali,
long time! How are you doing? You haven't been active lately?
Hope you are not being silenced by NSEMPA trolls?
The S&P is now on steroids, I mean, the Kamala Harris-induced steroids. I sense a conspiracy against DT by the Reserve Bank for the imminent rate cut, which is fueling the raging bull. August 28th is D-day; NVIDIA's Q2 report is anticipated, and the microphone will be dropped. The greatest earnings in the history of quoted companies since the market's creation are expected. The world will stand up for NVIDIA. Hope you've been able to re-enter. I was almost tempted but remained resolute due to the hard experience I had during the pandemic when I jumped out of the market too early. My decision to remain in the market is paying off now; my $12,500 paper loss is now $3,500 paper gain. I'm ready and prepared for another red day, which is unlikely. The worst is over for the S&P 500 and the magnificent 7 stocks. The recovery is heading hyperbolic.
Similarly, from today's activities, the NGX appears to have incurred the worst of stagnancy and declines and may be prime for a rebound in the coming days due to the imminent rate cut in the US, the positive effect will surely reflect on the Nigerian bourse.

I’ve been silenced. I don’t like stress jare. We will see ourselves end of quarter

Mankind2024:
Hello Bovali, my digital queen. I hope you're doing well. How is your S&P 500 investment faring? I'm finding the market to be quite unpredictable at the moment. Nevertheless, I remain optimistic about the future, especially if Kamala Harris were to win the US presidential election. Wishing you a wonderful day ahead.

bovali:
Sorry for the late response. Had to break it down so you understand what I mean.
By understanding options data, you’re able to predict to an 87% rate the price movement of us stocks. At the moment for Sp500, it has strong support of 5,300, but models are pointing to a tag of 5600 before any retracements.

Section 1: The Derivatives & Options Markets

**The Derivatives Market**
- Think of derivatives like a promise about the future price of something, like making a bet on what the weather will be like next week. People use these bets to protect themselves or to try to make money.

**The Options Market**
- Options are a special kind of bet where you can buy or sell something at a specific price before a certain date. It's like having a coupon to buy a toy at a special price before your birthday.

**Market Makers**
- Market makers are like the people who always have toys to buy or sell in the store. They make sure there's always someone to trade with, so you can always use your coupon.

**Option Expiration (OPEX)**
- Options have a last day when you can use them, like a coupon with an expiration date. If you don't use it by then, it becomes useless.

**Settlement of SPX Options**
- When the expiration date comes, people settle their bets. For SPX options, which are based on the stock market's performance, this means figuring out who won and who lost their bets.

### Section 2: How to Use Option Greeks

**Options Greeks**
- These are like different ways to measure your bet's value and how it might change. Think of them as tools that help you understand your bet better.

**Option Moneyness**
- This tells you if your bet is winning, losing, or close. It's like being ahead, behind, or tied in a race.

**Delta**
- Delta is like how fast your race car is going. It shows how much your bet's value changes when the price of the toy (or stock) changes a little bit.

**Delta Hedging**
- This is like balancing on a seesaw. If the toy's price changes, you adjust your bets to stay balanced.

**Gamma**
- Gamma shows how fast Delta changes. It's like knowing if your race car is speeding up or slowing down.

**Theta**
- Theta is about time. It shows how your bet's value changes as you get closer to the expiration date, like knowing how much time is left on your coupon.

**Volatility & Vega**
- Volatility is how jumpy the toy's price is, like the weather being unpredictable. Vega shows how much your bet's value changes with this jumpiness.

**Option Valuation (Black-Scholes Model)**
- This is a math formula that helps people figure out how much their bets are worth, like a calculator for options.

**Greeks in Action**
- Using these tools (Greeks) helps you understand and manage your bets better, like using a map to navigate a treasure hunt.

### Section 3: Term Structure, Skew & Tail Risk

**Term Structure**
- This shows how the price of options changes over different expiration dates, like seeing how the price of a toy changes over time.

**Skew**
- Skew shows if more people are betting on prices going up or down, like seeing if more kids think it will rain or be sunny.

**Tail Risk**
- Tail risk is about rare but big changes in price, like being prepared for a big storm.

### Section 4: Market Making & Liquidity

**Following Liquidity**
- Liquidity means how easy it is to buy or sell something. Following liquidity is like knowing when the toy store is full of toys so you can buy or sell easily.

### Section 5: Options Trading

**How I use Models**
- I use python to design models which factor all this information to help me make better bets, like having a strategy guide.

**Checklist for Trading Options**
- This is a list of things to check before making a bet, like making sure you have everything you need before going on a trip. It’s very important that you have one.

### Section 6: Options Strategies

**Advanced Strategies with Options**
- These are smart ways to use options to try to make more money or protect yourself, like having secret moves in a game. Not gonna reveal mine.

**Bullish Strategies**
- These are bets that the price will go up, like betting your favorite team will win.

**Bearish Strategies**
- These are bets that the price will go down, like betting your favorite team will lose.

**Market Neutral Strategies**
- These bets make money no matter if prices go up or down, like having a plan for any weather. You can Google straddle to understand more.

**Hedging Strategies**
- These are ways to protect yourself from losing too much, like having an umbrella in case it rains. I.e. insurance

Sold at resistance of 5,600. Holding cash at the moment cause I still expect further correction in the market

KarlTom:
Where is @bovali? 🤔

It's been a while.

I dey Jare. Decided to just be a silent participant. You help, they insult you. Just enjoying my peace of mind. Will be posting once a quarter from now (portfolio changes)

Laso09:
That was a reckless statement from someone in authority. Even if it is true, demarketing dangote product at this point is not the way to go.
I am tempted to believe that a lot of people are actually working against the actualisation of local refining of petroleum in the country for selfish interest.

I’ll just drop this here cause sometimes we’re too emotional as Nigerians. This same Dangote:
https://x.com/emekabk21/status/1814131174253772851?s=46&t=S-fB0C8yRxjxeCDpRFi4rw