₦airaland Forum

mikeapollo:
Good morning, beautiful, brainy lady madam!
Hope you are doing great this morning.
I am just saying ''hi'' to you, from Oando Junction, NGX Avenue.

I’m silent similar to what OGG said. My portfolio is public, I’m not missing out on anything. Enjoy for now

onegentleguy:
I honestly felt there's absolutely NO need to respond to those post.

It's funny that after all these years, someone would still think that I will put out an information to deceive others.
....that's totally disrespectful. This is the height of it!

This is part of the reason am usually reluctant to post classified information here.
I honestly knew about UCAP's 2 for 1 bonus and 90k div days earlier but decided against putting it out here. Instead, I informed some close pals and few of my subscribers.
It's also why I've had to cut down on the analysis I put out here. There was a time I used to analyze virtually every company financial statement to help guide others, but would still receive snide remarks and destructive criticisms from persons who for some inexplicable reason, turned out to be humans.

I may not be a rich guy, but I am rich at keeping integrity. ...I have a reputation to protect and I don't take that for granted.

Some very good and honest members have had to leave this platform (some even deleted their A/c) because of these ungrateful and often self-centered elements.

Well for me, if and when I decide to do things or offer help, I do it first for the sake of Devine who's the giver of every good gift and sometimes because I just wish to "pay it forward"... NOT for man.
Some humans are disgusting to say the least!

But frankly, these things don't bother me.
My GOAL is to continue to grow in the financial markets and also help as many as possible to do the same.

It is well

naturalflow:
troublemaker. you nkor?"oando will not get to 16" it got to 17.acquired assets have being prized in,it got to 17.5.let's just give it up to the market markers of this stock,they are the real voltron(defender of the universe).

Lmao, read my past posts

naturalflow:
EXCUS ME SIR,HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE OANDO TO CLEAR THE NEGATIVE 444 BILLION RETAINED EARNINGS ON ITS BOOK?IF OANDO NO GO BACK TO 12,THIS WEEK CALL ME BASCAR.

Bascar

mikeapollo:
The same bovali has stated clearly that she also bought some units of Oando.
So who is saving who, now?

I exited oando last quarter at 15. With a 40% gain and I also posted what I bought with the proceeds. As at today I don’t own any Oando and I’ve stated clearly why. You can read my old posts. It’s all there in public

BullBearMkt:
@bovali, thanks for providing further insights. These are the kind of data/information that were not in your first post that made it a WISH.

As per the meaning of your original post, since I went to evening school; I simply asked CHATGPT to explain it to a 12 year old. See result below:

Imagine there's a popular restaurant everyone loves because the owner, who started it, was really good at cooking and making people happy. But then, sadly, the owner passed away. After that, the restaurant isn't as good anymore. It's kind of like the restaurant "died" because it's no longer the special place it used to be. That's what's being said about this company. It was great when the founder was around, but now it's not the same and isn't doing well anymore.

I will be more detailed next time. Thanks . Didn't even reason it like that before. I love this forum, iron truly sharpen iron. Lots of bright minds to learn from here.

BullBearMkt:
...the person you are trying to defend is also guilty of what you are accusing @iHaveMadeiT2 for. Saying that a company is dead due to the founder's demise, without any data/information to back the claim up is like a wish, which @iHaveMadeiT2 is trying to pray not to come to pass.

Please o, I didn’t say it’s dead because the founder is dead. The founder was a very intelligent woman. But even when she was alive, the company had serious debt issues which they are struggling with now. I ignored the “not God” comment cause I’ve decided not to be emotional again on this thread. After all, it’s not my money they are using to trade.

I’m happy he did DD and saw that they have lost assets. Thank me later.

Further DD adviced

megawealth01:
We still dey the boat... On GOD

This one, I know on good authority, is a dead company now. Hasn’t been the same since the founder died.

DD advised

onegentleguy:
https://nairametrics.com/2024/07/10/access-holdings-explains-why-its-issued-shares-price-is-higher-than-market-price/

Aig-Imoukhuede noted, "There are certain things I look at when investing in a business or considering an investment. When evaluating a business, if the business’s annual earnings run rate matches the amount I invested, I consider it a strong indicator.”
"Currently, the analysis shows a potential earnings value of about 17 naira per share, with a trading price of around 19.75 naira per share. This is not a bank that needs further reinvestment to make that money, meaning it won’t seek additional capital that could dilute its earnings.”

This is broadly in line with my assertion. (see parts in bold.... think through the connection)

That said, Mr AIG should've also told us that a key reason for the price disparity between the RI offer and market peg is the intent to create weak apathy on existing shareholders.
As I said before; they don't necessarily need our money hence the "discouraging atmosphere" or lack of incentive to exercise one's rights.
...the probability that the group already has the required RI funds on standby is approximately 1.
I expect the RI exercise to be fully subscribed.

Needless to highlight that ACCESSCORP's FVE currently sits in the range of N34.25--N39.7, with the lower band of that price an extremely conservative estimate after raking-off what could be risk items to the bank's earnings stance (currency risk, minor dilution risk from the rights exercise and WC risk in view of her aggressive expansion drive) and assuming just 10% QoQ GM down to YE, 2024.
....*U*... HOLD!

Technically, price has since moved from our initial call @ N17.25 previously touching riding to near N20 before retracing backwards. The aim is to complete the effective breakout from what was previously a PRL to a demand zone.
Though yet to touch our swing target of N21, the chat is now better "shaped". ...I like what I see!

CAVEAT: Still NOT an investment advice. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

I have a crush on your brain

ositadima1:
Oga, even you have your strengths and weaknesses. If you come here and claim to know 92% of all existing strategies, I'll call bullshit.

Please show us where the person said they know all strategies. I’ll be waiting

emmanuelewumi:
Na wa for you, joining NSEMPA few months ago does not mean the person started investing few months ago.

bovali:
I’m not sharing portfolio again.
Make nobody send me mail. If you have question ask me here

That’s why I said nobody should dm me. If you have questions, ask it here. I don’t want anybody’s money. I’m not charging any fee. I’m here to learn and share what I know. One person can’t have it all. Only reason I shared my portfolio (which in a way i regret now) was because street investor kept quoting all my posts with share your own, share your own. I probably was emotional at the time, but it got to me.

Adinije:
Pls, how did u do the 3500 subscription? My owning is showing $13 monthly

I always wait for promotions before I buy. Cause it’s them looking for money. There’s no app that won’t give you discount, just download it and use it for two week minimum, and they will try to convince you to pay cheaper. Even LinkedIn. Chat gpt that is 20 us a month, I pay just 6 dollars monthly

cocolacec:
Thanks .What about US stocks,i need other options from trove,chaka and bamboo.

I use IB - https://www.interactivebrokers.com/ although I’m not sure they allow Nigerians. I had to by pass it by using my friends utility bill and set my country to Ghana.

megawealth01:
They will with time... Build your wealth with Access my guy

DYOR

Hmm

cocolacec:
Which investmemt app do you use from Nigeria?

https://trade.investnow.ng/customers/ - for trading

Investing.com - Analysis (This cost me 3,500 Naira a month). Cause it’s a fast way to get some information I need.

https://ngxgroup.com/ - For corporate actions, disclosures, financial statements etc

Mankind2024:
Hi Bovali,
Could you please share your insights on the option choices you use to boost your US portfolio? I'm aiming to cross the critical $100k mark by the end of Q3, and the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) has already helped my NYSE reach $70k, thanks to Tesla's ongoing rally. However, I don't use leverage (1x, 2x, 3x) and instead focus on trend investing, using strong fundamental analysis before making a purchase. I rarely time the market, but my weakness is knowing when to sell. I can easily spot buying opportunities with basic price charts.
I'm conversant with Black-Scholes Model, Finite Difference Methods, Binomial Model, and Monte Carlo Simulation but haven't tried them, however I can instruct AI with necessary information to derive entry level.
I'd like to explore how your option model can further catalyse my portfolio growth. A link via this forum is sufficient for me to embark on DD journey.
Thanks in advance.

Sorry for the late response. Had to break it down so you understand what I mean.
By understanding options data, you’re able to predict to an 87% rate the price movement of us stocks. At the moment for Sp500, it has strong support of 5,300, but models are pointing to a tag of 5600 before any retracements.

Section 1: The Derivatives & Options Markets

**The Derivatives Market**
- Think of derivatives like a promise about the future price of something, like making a bet on what the weather will be like next week. People use these bets to protect themselves or to try to make money.

**The Options Market**
- Options are a special kind of bet where you can buy or sell something at a specific price before a certain date. It's like having a coupon to buy a toy at a special price before your birthday.

**Market Makers**
- Market makers are like the people who always have toys to buy or sell in the store. They make sure there's always someone to trade with, so you can always use your coupon.

**Option Expiration (OPEX)**
- Options have a last day when you can use them, like a coupon with an expiration date. If you don't use it by then, it becomes useless.

**Settlement of SPX Options**
- When the expiration date comes, people settle their bets. For SPX options, which are based on the stock market's performance, this means figuring out who won and who lost their bets.

### Section 2: How to Use Option Greeks

**Options Greeks**
- These are like different ways to measure your bet's value and how it might change. Think of them as tools that help you understand your bet better.

**Option Moneyness**
- This tells you if your bet is winning, losing, or close. It's like being ahead, behind, or tied in a race.

**Delta**
- Delta is like how fast your race car is going. It shows how much your bet's value changes when the price of the toy (or stock) changes a little bit.

**Delta Hedging**
- This is like balancing on a seesaw. If the toy's price changes, you adjust your bets to stay balanced.

**Gamma**
- Gamma shows how fast Delta changes. It's like knowing if your race car is speeding up or slowing down.

**Theta**
- Theta is about time. It shows how your bet's value changes as you get closer to the expiration date, like knowing how much time is left on your coupon.

**Volatility & Vega**
- Volatility is how jumpy the toy's price is, like the weather being unpredictable. Vega shows how much your bet's value changes with this jumpiness.

**Option Valuation (Black-Scholes Model)**
- This is a math formula that helps people figure out how much their bets are worth, like a calculator for options.

**Greeks in Action**
- Using these tools (Greeks) helps you understand and manage your bets better, like using a map to navigate a treasure hunt.

### Section 3: Term Structure, Skew & Tail Risk

**Term Structure**
- This shows how the price of options changes over different expiration dates, like seeing how the price of a toy changes over time.

**Skew**
- Skew shows if more people are betting on prices going up or down, like seeing if more kids think it will rain or be sunny.

**Tail Risk**
- Tail risk is about rare but big changes in price, like being prepared for a big storm.

### Section 4: Market Making & Liquidity

**Following Liquidity**
- Liquidity means how easy it is to buy or sell something. Following liquidity is like knowing when the toy store is full of toys so you can buy or sell easily.

### Section 5: Options Trading

**How I use Models**
- I use python to design models which factor all this information to help me make better bets, like having a strategy guide.

**Checklist for Trading Options**
- This is a list of things to check before making a bet, like making sure you have everything you need before going on a trip. It’s very important that you have one.

### Section 6: Options Strategies

**Advanced Strategies with Options**
- These are smart ways to use options to try to make more money or protect yourself, like having secret moves in a game. Not gonna reveal mine.

**Bullish Strategies**
- These are bets that the price will go up, like betting your favorite team will win.

**Bearish Strategies**
- These are bets that the price will go down, like betting your favorite team will lose.

**Market Neutral Strategies**
- These bets make money no matter if prices go up or down, like having a plan for any weather. You can Google straddle to understand more.

**Hedging Strategies**
- These are ways to protect yourself from losing too much, like having an umbrella in case it rains. I.e. insurance

nosa2:
You can share portfolio just use percentages.

Makes sense. Will adopt this

Streetinvestor2:
How about your village people. You sure they don't equally have access....lol.And I saw 3 billion dollars. I hope nobi all this portfolio cover you are seeing of recent that attracted you here

I’m not sharing portfolio again.
Make nobody send me mail. If you have question ask me here

Streetinvestor2:
I believe you are a TA person. From you own stand what are you expecting if it gets to 16 and close above ii going forward

If it closes above 16, expect a continuous rally to your 20 naira level after which 16 will begin to act as the new support level for any downturns.

naturalflow:
They said the Agip asset has being priced in ooooooo.chai

Yes. It’s been priced in. Rally like this tomorrow again, let’s see. Till you pass N16, nothing will happen

bovali:
No be arbitrage be that? Buy JSE, transfer and sell NSE? Let me see if i can get these details (Transaction Costs, Currency Exchange Rates, Regulatory Considerations, Execution Speed)

Just finished my research. Summary: Not worth it. It’s illiquid in JSE. Just 20k units traded on average, so can’t find units to buy

Mankind2024:
Oando is red in Johannesburg R0.09
Green here in Nigeria N15.50

No be arbitrage be that? Buy JSE, transfer and sell NSE? Let me see if i can get these details (Transaction Costs, Currency Exchange Rates, Regulatory Considerations, Execution Speed)

PETERiCHY:
Also REMEMBER to UPDATE us when OANDO goes on FULL OFFER.

I didn't hear anyone say anything when CWG went on full offer

yMcy56:
I'll check the shareholding structure and result again....
BUT I don't think you should plan your trades on it for short term, I no see anything for short term but for long term, it should deliver well....
TRANSPOWER is good for long term.....
Medium, any good thing may/can happen

* Na my personal and amateur opinion oo**

Remember this (25 days never pass?):
https://businessday.ng/news/article/fg-to-settle-n1-7trn-gencos-debt-in-25-days/

[quote author=lolly24000 post=130787852][/quote]You never ready, when you don ready, you go drop mileage

mikeapollo:
No, not what I mean.
I was reacting to the OP (bovali) who stated that the acquisition of ENI/NOAC by Oando has already been priced in (reflected) on NSE as at today.
I was telling her to wait and let's see when the profits from the acquisition starts reflecting in the financial results of Oando when the accounts for Q3 2023 andFY2024 are released. By that time, Oando's price would have increased significantly and it may be too late to buy at a bargain price and make a good margin.

I understand where you’re coming from completely. And I agree with you. But till that time, the q1 and q2 will at least give confirmation. But for this quarter, unless it enters my target zone then nothing. If oando breaks 16 Naira, and closes above it, the. 20 Naira is very possible in the short term like street investor said

mikeapollo:
The Niger Delta issue is systemic risk. It all affects everyone in the industry.
Seplat, Aiteo, Aradel, etc are all operating in the Niger Delta and making good profits. Oando will not be an exception. All it requires is sound management and cost efficiency

All who have previously declared force majeure and is why Nigeria has one of the highest cost of oil production in the world. Cause instead of using pipelines, we are trucking and barging crude oil. The ones enjoying are the ones with deep water oil fields as they don’t get disturbed as much. I wish I could share some of these O&G reports. We used to comfortably do over 2m barrels a day, now if we get 1-1.5m we are lucky

PETERiCHY:
So you MEAN we should WAIT for 2024 Q3 and full FY2024 financial results that will be release in 2026

God bless you.

mikeapollo:
The acquisition might have been priced in already. But the benefits (cost efficiency, performance and profits etc.) accruable from the acquisition of ENI/NAOC assets will only start reflecting in Oando's financials going forward!
Wait until you see the 2024 Q3 and full FY2024 financial results.
Oando is making gradual, remarkable progress in spite of the difficulties in past years, but some people are neck-stiff in acknowledging it.
Investment analysis does not begin and end with past performances. Future revenues and profits are also key to investment decisions.

Q1 is coming out in September, when will Q3 and full 24 come out? That’s my point, if I know they will release loss in the coming Q1, I might as well wait and trade the support and resistance zones again. It has nothing to do with future prospects, it’s money I’m trying to make.

Omooloriredade:
From where I stand, the completion of the Agip deal is a game changer for the company. I expect Oando to release an announcement to breakdown what this acquisition means to the company and its shareholders. That's what a good CEO would do. Sell the news while it's hot. Many may still not understand the ramifications though until they see the Q3 and Q4 results which should incorporate Agip's assets.

Oando's best asset has just been doubled while they shed the less quality assets. We can argue poor leadership is also a bane of this company. It's an empty post, lets see if Wale can manage to put the ball in the net. Recent news suggests a genuine turnaround might be in the offing.

The FG has signified interest in cranking up crude production which should augur well for E&P companies. If they can manage security and infrastructure availability properly such that it translates to increased production, there could be some good money to be made by all players. As for Oando, their financial report should look better if they can push for 100,000BOE in production this year.

My post could be misleading so please do your own DD.

All these are long term and uncertain. Niger Delta is not where you will use force to get what you want. If they don’t get it right, they will waste money on fixing old pipelines that were previously bombed and it will get bombed again once there is small community disagreement. I personally know what the gas industry is struggling with right now with regards protecting its pipelines. All in all, I pray we get this right. If Nigeria doesn’t work for me, it must work for my children

Omooloriredade:
To be fair, since your background is finance, it's easy to understand why you would scrutinize financial report and base your investment decisions on the financial health of companies. I suppose you can't be bothered about operations but would wait to see how they translate to figures in the financials.

I guess one would not expect Oando to fit your investment philosophy so I also found it interesting that you traded it previously and still waiting for it at a bargain? Nothing wrong with that. Smart move if you can pick buy low and sell high. It's all about the money.

I hope you don't see my post as confrontational though. All I'm here for is friendly discussion on stocks...haha.

The models that I use have been accurate so far. When oando came up on the model, I did my DD. Debt aside, the only issue wrong with oando like I said previously is mismanagement. They gave Fg loan, acquired agip for peanuts but nothing changed in their books aside FX gain. The market moves in both directions on momentum, I was just advising the short term traders that want to play the volatile swing we’ve seen in the last one year.
Dd advised

yMcy56:
- 2023 AFS to be finalized by 31st August
- 2023 AFS, Q1 2024 and Q2 2024 to be released by Sept

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/41618_OANDO_PLC-OANDO_PLC_-_PRESS_RELEASE__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JULY_2024.pdf

We’re saying the same thing. No financial statements till September