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Politics › All Fingers Are Not Equal, But How Unequal Should They Be? By Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 7:56am On Aug 21, 2017

All Fingers Are Not Equal, But How Unequal Should They Be?
August 21, 20172671

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI , Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com
OUTSIDE THE BOX
BY ALEX OTTI

“Nigeria has the unenviable position of being at the bottom of the Commitment to Reducing Inequality (CRI) Index. Its social spending (on health, education and social protection) is shamefully low, reflected in very poor social outcomes for its citizens.
More than 10 million children in Nigeria do not go to school and 1 in 10 children do not reach their fifth birthday. The Africa Progress Panel has demonstrated that despite Nigeria’s positive economic growth for many years, poverty has increased, and the proceeds of growth have gone almost entirely to the top 10% of the population. The CRI Index shows that while Nigeria collects significant tax revenues from oil, there is huge potential for it to raise more tax, for example on personal incomes, and so it scores very badly on this aspect too. Finally, Nigeria’s treatment of workers and women in the workplace also puts it near the bottom of the rankings.”
Above is the verdict of the Development Finance International and Oxfam in their research report published just last month, July 2017. In 2015, some 193 countries, including Nigeria, came together and reached an agreement to reduce inequality in line with the understanding that poverty can only be tackled with reduction in inequality as per the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). CRI is the first index designed to measure the commitment of countries to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor and was created by Development Finance International and Oxfam. In measuring the first set of countries numbering 152, the duo of Development Finance International and Oxfam relied on data that measures government action on social spending, tax and worker’s rights amongst other indicators to determine how committed countries are in reducing inequality. The first report published, which they admit is subject to adjustments, revealed that while Sweden came first, Nigeria, came first if you count from the rear in commitment to reduce inequality. We were actually number 152 out of the 152 countries measured.

The same Oxfam in May this year presented a shocking revelation of the level of inequality in the country. According to the report, 5 Nigerians that are worth almost $30billion could end extreme poverty in Nigeria. It claims that 112million Nigerians, representing more than 65% of the population, live in abject poverty. This report which is part of the “Even it up” campaign aimed at bridging the gap between the rich and the poor, also focussed on how the benefits of economic growth in Nigeria have been exclusively appropriated by the wealthy few at the expense of the majority of ordinary people. The report also shows that the wealthiest man in Nigeria earns 8000 times more in one day than an ordinary Nigerian will spend on basic needs in a year. The report goes further to highlight that quite unlike most other countries in the world, Nigeria was one of the exceptional cases where the number of people living in poverty increased from 69 million in 2004 to 112million, 6 years later. This represents close to 70% growth. On the hand, the number of millionaires increased by 44% over the same period.
Everything that has been said above points to the fact that inequality is a major factor in the level of poverty that the country’s population experiences. According to Index Mundi, a statistical and information portal for measuring countries, Nigeria has the 6th largest proportion of its population living below poverty line. This report goes further to state that Nigeria with 70% of its population living below poverty line, is only better than Chad, Haiti and Liberia at 80%, DRC at 71%, and Sierra Leone at 70.2% out of the 152 countries ranked. As we had stated elsewhere in our intervention, the World Bank has defined poverty line as that amount of money below which people are not expected to lead a decent life. The threshold has recently been reviewed from $1.25 to the current $1.90 per day.

That figure translates to less than N600 per day at today’s exchange rate or N18, 000 monthly. The number of people living below this amount relative to the total population is said to live below poverty line. To move many more people out of poverty and begin to report better numbers in the poverty line index, we must drastically attack inequality and reduce the gap between the haves and the have nots. Inequality is not good for anyone whether poor or rich. It has been linked with crime and insecurity, lower economic growth, poor healthcare delivery and hunger. While the impact on the poor people can be very severe, the rich would also not be able to sleep well. There is this popular saying that the poor cannot sleep because they are hungry and the rich cannot sleep because the poor is awake. How can they when the society is bedeviled by violent crimes including armed robbery, kidnapping, terrorist activities and outright brigandage?
Can something be done about this? The answer is yes. We are aware of the several humanitarian programs set up by the the wealthy to assuage poverty and assist the indigent. While this is commendable and should be encouraged, there is only so much these palliatives can do to solve the inequality scourge and pull people out of poverty. Given the number of people who have been counted as living below poverty line, it is obvious that more concerted efforts need to be put in place to address extreme poverty and this can only be done by government through policy. It is interesting that Nigeria is one of the signatories of the 2015 agreement to reduce inequality. The solution lies not in reducing the wealth available to the richest few. That kind of thinking is not practicable and has never worked anywhere.
The solution that will work is for government to engage in massive social spending. Government spending on healthcare, education and social protection is one sure way of reducing inequality. How does it work? When government spends on healthcare delivery and education, those facilities are made available to the rest of the society and access helps in elevating them from a state where those facilities were either not available or could only be accessed at unaffordable costs. Just think of what will happen if every community has a well equipped hospital built by government and probably managed by experts who would ensure that the service is provided at affordable rates to the people of the community.
The same thing goes for education about which we had written extensively. These facilities would not only provide service, but would also generate jobs for those in the catchment area, thereby reducing unemployment which is another fallout of inequality. To buttress this point, the report that we had quoted earlier had pointed out that a recent study of 13 developing countries that had drastically reduced their overall inequality level, found that 69% of the reduction of inequality was because of investment in public services. Social spending is almost always progressive because it helps reduce existing levels of inequality. Despite this, in many countries, social spending could be far more progressive and pro-poor and can play a key role in reducing the amount of unpaid care work that women do by redistributing child and elder care, healthcare and other domestic labour.
Beyond government spending is the issue of progressive taxation. We had demonstrated in this column in the past that the inability of government to efficiently collect tax has hampered its ability to deliver service to the citizens. Nigeria’s tax to GDP ratio is an abysmal 6%, the lowest in Africa. The real issue is that those who are in a position to pay tax, (and anyone who earns income should be in a position to pay tax), do not pay tax. As oil revenue continues to dwindle and as oil’s imminent collapse approaches, (in view of developed countries’ announcements of phase-out dates of gasoline vehicles), government must pay attention to improving its tax collection strategies. Why this is important is that progressive taxation is a sure way to redistribute income in favour of the poor and reducing inequality. The second point is that it is also a veritable way to raise funding for social spending. I know a lot of people would have been worried about where the funding of the spending we had earlier proposed was going to come from. Of course taxation is one way of funding government expenditure.

Continuous upward adjustment of wages is critical to reducing inequality and eradicating poverty. At a minimum wage of N18, 000.00 monthly, it will be difficult to reduce poverty as that amount is presently the threshold for poverty line. It is therefore a good thing that the issue of minimum wage has recently come to the front burner of discussions. These discussions should be encouraged if we truly want to bridge the gap between the rich and the poor. I know all the arguments against increase in wages which includes the unemployment argument and the fact that employers are struggling in a challenged economy, but I have always submitted that if you pay peanuts, you can only attract monkeys. There is a strong direct correlation between pay and productivity.
The government needs to pay attention to an inclusive growth model that will bring minorities and women into the economic equation. To achieve this, efforts must be made to empower women, pay them appropriately for their roles, (most of them are not paid for at the moment) and ensure that they are included in economic activities. This becomes very important given their numbers. Any serious effort to reduce inequality without addressing the gender issue is dead on arrival. This is also true of other excluded segments of the society including the youth.
Government can also do a lot by spending massively on infrastructure in terms of power, roads, rail, seaports and airports. This is very useful in bridging the gap between the rich and the poor in more ways than one. In the first instance, availability of infrastructure will create jobs and take a lot of the economically weak out of poverty. It will also reduce the cost of living, though, for everyone including the rich, but the poor will feel the impact more.
It will reduce the cost of doing business and encourage more people to get into economic activities and reduce tension in the polity. It is, however, instructive to emphasise here that the ability of government to engage in social and infrastructural spending is limited not only by the resources available to it, but that part of the resources earmarked for capital expenditure in the annual budget. It bears repeating that beyond the political will and commitment to reduce inequality, the government has been ambivalent with the budgeting process over the years. As a result we budget N7 out of every N10 spend on payment of salaries, servicing of debt and day to day running of the government, leaving only N3 to spend on capital projects. In many cases, by the time the year comes to an end, we would have actually spent more than N7 out of N10 on government overheads.
The solution, therefore is to force a rejig of the budget numbers so that we can have enough for social and infrastructural spending. It can be argued that because this is not being done that we battle with all sorts of insurrection and crimes. We may choose to allocate more money to fighting crimes or to address the root cause of the crimes a chunk of which is inequality. Any choice we make has both short term and long term consequences. One of the longer term consequences is that our democracy which we all know is not working may eventually implode and those that survive it will be forced to learn from the lessons of the past and do the right thing.

As highlighted by the CRI research report, many decades ago, a US Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis succinctly said “you can either have extreme inequality or you can have democracy – you cannot have both”. Across the world, faced with growing gaps between elites and the rest of society, politicians are clamping down on democratic rights and closing the space for civil society. Inclusive policy making processes which respect the rights and voice of all people are important as an end in themselves – but also to secure the best policies. Conversely, policy making processes dominated by elites undermine democracy and have been shown to result in policies which predominantly benefit those elites. The result is obvious, extreme poverty, hunger, disease, squalor, which in turn are not unconnected with violence, crime, terrorism and instability. We must all act now as tomorrow may be too late.

Politics › Alex Otti Condemns Abia 200 Million Dollar Loan, Demands For Accountability by comradefery(op): 2:17pm On Aug 16, 2017*

For those who had enquired yesterday, especially agents of the Abia state government as to why I temporarily pulled down the text of the press conference held in Lagos by Dr. Alex Otti OFR over the questionable 200 Million Dollar loan approved for Abia state government, please note that I pulled it down because I didn’t want our own media team to be ahead of the journalists who covered the press conference, even though some concerned and patriotic Abians dutifully as expected lifted and started circulating the release immediately after I posted it.

Here Is Once Again the Text of a Press Conference Organized by the 2015 APGA Abia Governorship Candidate, Dr. Alex Otti over the 200 million Dollar Loan Approved for Abia State Government by the National Assembly.

PRESS CONFERENCE

Text of a Press Conference Organized by the 2015 APGA Abia Governorship Candidate, Dr. Alex Otti over the 200 million Dollar Loan Approved for Abia State Government by the National Assembly.
Gentlemen of the press, good afternoon and welcome to this important Press Conference to discuss my position on the loan just approved for Abia State Government.
Permit me to start by informing you that I convened this press conference, in my capacity as the leader of the main opposition political party, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in Abia State and a member of the Board of Trustees (BOT) of the Party.
Recall that when the ugly developments which bothered on nationally acclaimed misgovernance in Abia assumed a frightening dimension and became an intolerable embarrassment to some of us, I took the decision of quitting my job in the bank, a decision which many informed Nigerians, including many of you gentlemen of the press considered strange through your analysis then. I took that decision because I knew that the pathetic Abia situation required uncommon altruism if the anti-people policies of the government of that time must be challenged and defeated.
Though the Abia cabal invoked unimaginable brigandage and barbarism to deny Abians their choice and remain in power at the expense of the people, you were witnesses to the people inspired giant strides we made which ended their reign of absolutism and proved to Abians that their oppressors are not invisible after all. For instance, we were able to secure 11 out of the 24 house of assembly seats after the election, a feat that had not been witnessed in the state.

Regrettably, the continuous existence of the same people,the same system of government and governance at the executive level and the tragedy it has continued to bring upon the people necessitated this press conference.
On assumption of office, the present Abia State government led by Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu began dishing out figures of funds it required to clear arrears of salaries owed Abia workers. After initially claiming that it required six billion Naira(N6B) to clear the salary arrears owed Abia workers, the governor later approached the Abia State House of Assembly seeking approval for a loan of Thirty Billion Naira (N30B) from a local bank. My party APGA did challenge that request after the state government contradicted the then speaker who had informed his House members that the said loan was for infrastructural development, only for the state government to turn back and claim that it was meant to clear different debts owed by the state. The objection raised by my party led to an unjust suspension slammed on the then APGA minority leader for months.

Alarmed by the suspicious claims and moves of the government regarding state financial matters I sought clarification from the government through my Media Aides and my party on the specific amount required to clear arrears of salaries owed Abia workers.Unfortunately, the government remained dodgy until it received N14.150 billion Bailout fund from the Federal Government. Shortly after receiving the bailout fund, the governor, through his then SSA on public communications, Sam Hart announced the inauguration of a committee charged with the responsibility of disbursing the funds and promised to clear all outstanding arrears owed workers by October 30, 2015.
Gentlemen of the press, what this specific promise by Dr. Ikpeazu meant was that the government had its record intact and accurate, and knew that the bailout fund would be enough to offset the salary arrears. Unfortunately, that promise turned out a dangerous political gimmick that got Abians bamboozled, and workers seriously hurt.

While the groaning of Abia workers and Abians as a whole continued unabated as a result of mounting debts owed workers and general absence of good governance in the state, the state government again received the first tranche of the Paris Club refund totaling N5.3 Billion. Once again, the government went on air this time around through the Commissioner for finance, Obinna Oriaku claiming that it needed extra N700 million to augment the N5.3 billion to be able to clear all arrears of salaries owed Abia workers. Unfortunately again, this turned out another humiliating trick, leaving unpaid arrears of workers pilling up unchecked.

Just about a month ago, the Ikpeazu government once again occupied the Abia airwaves with endless jingles of how the government was going to clear the same salary arrears immediately the second tranche of the Paris Clubrefund arrived. Sadly, immediately the N5.7 billionarrived, the government came up with another atrocious story which was that it got less than what it expected.
Gentlemen of the press, this primitive and callous administrative ineptitude has left many Abia workers being owed up to 8 months’ salary arrears, making their lives and those of their families miserable.
Mind you, the above mentioned funds and other funds secured by the Ikpeazu/PDP led government has nothing to do with the tens of billions of naira gotten by the government as statutory monthly allocations and internally generated revenues.

While many Abians are still mourning and yet to recover from the numerous deceits of the present Abia State government, we got the sad news of the approval of the sum of 200 million United States Dollars loan for Abia State by the National Assembly. This loan which is supposed to come from the African Development Bank has a tenure of about 20 years with a 7 year moratorium. As observed by the House of Representatives, while the President had by a memo dated May 25, 2017, recommended $100million for approval, the Ministry Of Finance by its memo dated July 18, 2017 sent in a request for $200million which was approved. This contradiction, coupled with the lack of clarity on the repayment source of the loan were enough reasons not to approve this huge loan request, but unfortunately, the National Assembly went ahead to approve it.
Gentlemen of the press, from the aforementioned developments, the facts of which can be verified, there is absolutely no doubt that the Ikpeazu/PDP led government does not mean well for Abia State and its people as the consistency of negativity of the government, especially in the management of the peoples' commonwealth has assumed a provocative and insulting dimension, hence the need for all men of good conscience to collectively raise their voices in saving the state by calling Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu and his collaborators to order so that they don’t plunge Abia and Abians into long term financial and economic chaos.
Bearing in mind the huge burden of expectation placed on my shoulders by millions of less privileged Abians whose voices cannot be heard beyond their abodes, I am compelled to, on behalf of myself, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), the suffering Abia masses and indeed, the entire good people of Abia state to make the following demands:
1. That the National Assembly should review its decisiontaken a few weeks agoand quickly withdraw or reverse its approval of the 200 Million Dollar loan, as any money given to the Abia State government by the issuing body is bound to disappear going by its crazy record of financial recklessness. Besides, the capacity to repay this humongous loan has not been demonstrated in any way or form, irrespective of the outdated document titled "Abia State Integrated Infrastructure Development Project" dated October 2015 which was the only document placed in front of the Assembly for the loan.
2. That the state government should tell Abians where the billions given to it so far for the development of the state have gone to.
3. That the Abia state house of Assembly should without further delay set up a panel to investigate the financial activities of the Okezie Ikpeazu led government and ensure that anyone found culpable in the obvious financial crimes halting the development of the state is made to pay the prize, so as to prevent the state from being plunged into long term financial and economic chaos.
4. That the federal government should henceforth prevent Abia state government from assessing any form of loan from within or outside the country until it accounts for the funds already received.
5. That the EFCC, ICPC and other anti-corruption agencies should beam its searchlight on Abia and commence urgent investigation of the activities of the past and present governments so as to unravel the mystery behind the disappearance of billions of naira accrued to the state as allocations, internally generated revenues, and loans for which the state has remained in a state of ruins and underdevelopment.
6. Finally, that the state government should immediately pay up all salary areas for which it had received bailout funds and two tranches of Paris Club refunds.
May we also advise the Federal Government to pay attention to how funds are used by the states more so, when they are bailout funds and other loans that future generations would be made to repay.
Many thanks.
Dr. Alex Otti, OFR.

Politics › Help, The Future Is In Deep Trouble - By Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 5:09pm On Aug 07, 2017

Help, the Future is in Deep Trouble
August 7, 2017104508

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI , Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com
OUTSIDE THE BOX
BY ALEX OTTI

“Little Johnny goes to his dad and asks, “Dad, what is politics?”
Dad says, “Well son, let me try to explain it this way. I’m the breadwinner of the family, so let’s call me Capitalism. Your mum is the administrator of the money, so we’ll call her the Government. We’re here to take care of your needs, so we’ll call you The People. The nanny, well, consider her The Working Class. Your baby brother, we’ll call him The Future. Now go think about this and see if it makes sense.”
So the little boy goes off to bed confused and thinking about what Dad had said. Later that night, he hears his baby brother crying and runs to his room only to find that his diapers were very soiled.
So the little boy goes to his parents’ room. Mum was sound asleep. Not wanting to wake her, he goes to the nanny’s room. Finding the door locked, he looks through the peephole and sees his father in bed with the nanny. He gives up and goes back to bed.
The next morning, the little boy says to his father, “Dad, I think I now understand what politics is.”
“Good son, tell me in your own words then what politics is” the father responded.
The little boy replies, “Well, while Capitalism is oppressing the Working Class, the Government is sound asleep, the People are being ignored and the future is in deep sh*t.”
This old joke points to the deceit in comments like “the future belongs to the youth”. “The youth are the leaders of tomorrow”. The sad reality is that with the way things are going, there may be no future left for our youth. The other reality is that the future is here. As we take actions that tend to obliterate the future, it is my opinion that it is only the youth that should rise up to the challenge and put a stop to actions that tend to put the future in jeopardy. And what better way to do this than to show more interest in who governs them and how they are governed rather than the docile attitude of fighting in the social media in support and against the ruling class whose interests could be anything but those of the youth.

There seems to be a convention that those in the corridors of power or those that had ruled in the past, whether they did well or not, will continue to dominate governance in Nigeria. The doctrine of recycling in Nigerian politics has become so pervasive that some of our politicians, after they have been National Assembly members, returned to their states to accept commissionership and other lower positions, just to remain in power. The most common is that Governors who complete their tenure of office in their states simply go to hibernate in the Senate, even if they have nothing to contribute in that hallowed chamber. The sole driver of their ambition is to remain in power and continue to benefit from our common purse.
It is instructive that, with the return of democracy in 1999, we had a throwback to the past, where the former Head of State, General Olusegun Obasanjo, who ruled the country between 1976 and 1979, was drafted to contest the first democratic presidential election of the 4th Republic, which he won, and ruled again from 1999 to 2007. Subsequently, attempts have been made by former military leaders like Ibrahim Babangida, to return to power.
Again in 2015, the current President, PMB, who ruled the country from 1983 to 1985 contested and won. As 2019 approaches, veterans like the retired paramilitary officer and one time Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, are warming up to contest. I also read recently that another retired Senior Military Officer, David Mark, a one-time minister of communications in those days when telephones were not meant for the poor, and a recurrent decimal in the Nigerian Senate, serving his 6th term out of 8, was endorsed by Obasanjo to contest the next presidential election. Without prejudice to their rights to vie for any office they wish to, one thing that cuts across most of the Presidential hopefuls against 2019, is that they are all about 70 years and above. Do I have a problem with age? Definitely not.

Do I have issues with the age of ideas? Certainly! For me at over 50, to my discomfort, I find that I am ageing. Some of the things I could do with ease, a few years ago, I find nowadays that I can do no more, even with my very best efforts. Some risks I could take a few years back, sadly, have become impossible today. I may choose to live in denial, but within me, I know the difference. It is therefore in everyone’s interest to yield leadership to people who are not only at the right age but who can dare and take risks. Unfortunately, power is hardly given. It is taken and that is where this intervention comes in. If the youth who should know the right thing to do, refuse to show interest, then just like the saying goes, “they take away their rights to complain when fools begin to govern them.”
Interestingly, many of our past leaders emerged in their youth.Chief Obafemi Awolowo, was 43 when he became the Premier of Western Region. His youthful disposition could have helped him to institute free education and limited free health care delivery in the region. He was able to achieve these in a Nigeria without oil. As Minister of Finance subsequently, he was able to finance the civil war without borrowing. He built landmark structures like stadia, television stations and The Cocoa House in Ibadan, the first skyscraper in tropical Africa. Obasanjo was 39 when he became the Head of State in 1976. Yakubu Gowon was under 32 when he became Head of State. Ibrahim Babangida was 44 when he became Military President in 1985 while Abubakar Tafawa Balewa was also in his 40s when he became the first Nigerian Prime Minister. Buhari was 41 when he became head of State in 1983. Odimegwe Ojukwu was barely 34 when he led the Biafra war. Aguiyi Ironsi was in his early 40s when he became the first Military Head of State in 1966.

On the international scene, many of the popular American Presidents assumed office when they were in their 40s. Barack Obama was 47, Bill Clinton 46, Edward Kennedy 43 and Frank Roosevelt 42 respectively when they became Presidents. Elsewhere, Emmanuel Macron was recently sworn in as President of France at 39. Vanessa D’Ambrosio became President of San Marino, Europe at 29. The current President of North Korea who has been giving Trump sleepless nights, Kim Jong Un, became President at 32.Lee Kuan Yew became the Prime Minister of Singapore at the age of 36. Of course, there were exceptions like Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan both of whom became Presidents at 70.
So, what is wrong with Nigeria? Nothing really, except that our young ones are not only docile, but cowardly, and many of them are largely uninformed. The rest may just be outrightly selfish. They are quick to come up with a laundry list of excuses why they are not interested in politics. The excuses may range from lack of money to fear of being killed. According to statistics, over 70% of our population is below the age of 40. This has been aptly described as “a pot-bellied youth bulge”. For purposes of this discussion, I want to define the youth as that part of the population aged less than 50. To understand how bad it is, in a country of over 180m people, the number of registered voters for the 2015 General Election was 68.83m. If we subtract the under aged, there is no argument that over 50% of eligible youthful voters were not registered. What that means is that this number of youths has wittingly or unwittingly disenfranchised themselves. Because they can neither vote nor be voted for, they probably have little or no interest in the way the country, states and local governments are governed. If you are unable to participate actively, you should at least have a permanent voter’s card and be available to vote. But alas, that is not the case. And it is because of the lack of interest by the youth that the throwback conspiracy stands. Why can’t the youth, through different civil society groups or social media groups, decide that in 2019, one of them would become President? If this kind of decision is made, they would then match it with actions of a vigorous campaign and massive voting and protection of their votes. I am 100% certain that if this happens, they would win the election. As has been written, “One of the penalties of refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors”

Many of the challenges that this country face today are traceable to poor, ignorant and/or selfish leadership. The gerontocratic leadership system that was foisted on us has little or no regard to how its actions, shape or scatter the future and I will just highlight a few and you are at liberty to add to the list. We have had a country that starts its yearly budget providing more than 70% of its spending on recurrent expenditure, earmarking less than 30% to capital expenditure. What this means is that we are not building any foundation nor infrastructure for the future generation. Because infrastructure continues to decay, a silent de-industrialisation of the economy has been implemented as policy. Look around you and tell me if you can see those industries that littered major towns in the past. Because these industries are forced to close shops or relocate, the jobs that were hitherto created have practically disappeared. That is one of the reasons why unemployment has continued to be on the rise. Youth unemployment is close to 30% as per statistics. Who should worry about this? The 80-year-old or the 40-year-old? How come most of the establishments and facilities put in place in the olden days when there was no oil, stood the test of time? In some parts of the South East, there are some 1960-1970 roads that are still useable, even though subsequent governments have been unable to maintain them. The people who built those facilities were young in those days and they were interested in the future. As they show up forty years later to clutter the leadership space, their priorities are bound to be different. Do you hear any leader seriously addressing industrialisation, as a policy of the government? I don’t know about where you come from, but in the state from where I come, either by neglect or simply the absence of mind, subsequent governments have implemented policies that led to the shutdown of factories and manufacturing outfits, established by their predecessors. So when governments talk about job creation, the question should be where the jobs are going to be created from when the same government is pursuing a de-industrialisation policy?

The issue of piling up debts for the future generation is another one that I expect the youth to stand firmly against. There is nothing inherently wrong with borrowing, but the purpose must be regenerative and not for payment of salaries, fat allowances, security votes, pensions of politicians and funding the lavish lifestyle of leaders. Recently, the National Assembly approved dollar loans for some state governments to be repaid over a period of 20 years with 7 years moratorium. I wonder how those loans will be paid and from what sources. Some state governors are already jubilating and the intent is to pass the debts to you the young ones. So, why are you keeping quiet? Do you realise the implication of paying back loans that were used to finance the frivolities and excesses of your parents? Will you be happy to pay back such loans?
There is a lot to say, including the promotion of primordial interests like ethnicity, and religion which keep the youth divided while their oppressors are united in looting the country, irrespective of same divides. Suffice it to add that the youth have shown a strong presence in business and the entertainment industry in this country. So have they also shown tenacity in the information technology space? Unfortunately, the continued survival and growth of these sectors of the economy can only be guaranteed by competent and good governance. One bad policy of government can wipe out all the successes recorded in the Nollywood industry and the creative business.
Finally, I won’t be surprised if some people, out of mischief, give a misleading interpretation to my arguments including implying that the youth is synonymous with good leadership while the more advanced people are synonymous with bad leadership. I have said no such thing. My point is that the youth has more stake in the future than the aged. Of course, I am not unaware of young people that have bungled leadership opportunities both here and elsewhere. I also give credit to experience, maturity and skills. It is my contention, however, that the youth should not sit idly by feeling unconcerned while the older generation destroys and mortgages their future.

We, the older ones who have promoted a situation where the majority of the youth are excluded and have no say in how they are governed, should also deliberately create space and encourage them to take over from us. After all, just like Plato said, “we can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark, the real tragedy of life is when grown up men are afraid of the light”

Politics › Alex Otti Condemns Ozubulu Church Massacre, Calls For Togetherness by comradefery(op): 5:52am On Aug 07, 2017

Press Release

The Abia State APGA governorship candidate in the 2015 governorship election, Dr. Alex Otti has sent his heartfelt condolences to the government and people of Anambra state, the Ozubulu Community and the Catholic Church in Ozubulu over the gruesome and coldblooded murder of some worshipers at St. Philips Catholic Church, Amakwa Ozubulu by unknown gunmen.

Dr. Otti is heavily pained that some persons could muster the courage to invade a holy place of worship and massacre defenseless citizens who had gone to seek the face of the Lord, describing the killing as an unjustifiable cruelty that should not go unpunished.

He called on political and religious leaders, as well as their followers in Anambra and beyond to unite at this challenging moment and stand by the families of those killed and the injured so as to show them the deserving brotherly love and solidarity that could help assuage their pain.

Finally, Dr. Otti challenged security agents to exhibit the best form of professionalism and leave no stone unturned in ensuring that the perpetrators of that heinous crime are brought to justice as that is the only way to avert future occurrence, and called on the people not to hesitate to avail security agents with any vital information that could help track the fleeing murderers.

Signed

Ferdinand Ekeoma
Media Assistant to Dr. Alex Otti

Politics › PDP: Saved By A Hair's Breadth- By Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 7:14am On Jul 24, 2017

PDP: Saved By a Hair’s Breadth
July 24, 20172742

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI , Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com
OUTSIDE THE BOX
BY ALEX OTTI

Sequel to the 2015 general election that saw APC defeat the “behemoth” PDP at the centre, it was clear that the latter was primed for some interesting changes. The National Chairman of the party, Adamu Muazu took an honourable exit and resigned his exalted position. This created space that was temporarily filled by Prince Uche Secondus, the Deputy National Chairman of the party.
Still smarting from its loss, the PDP was unable to find a substantive replacement for Muazu until Ahmed Gulak, former President Goodluck Jonathan’s adviser, fought and obtained an injunction, declaring him or any other member of the party from the North East, the Chairman of the Party. This forced the duo of Governors Ayodele Fayose and Nyesom Wike of Ekiti and Rivers states respectively, in consultation with then President Jonathan and other leaders of the party to draft Ali Modu Sheriff, the former Governor of Bornu State as the Chairman of the Party. Sheriff was meant to complete the tenure of Muazu. It did not take long before discordant tunes began to be heard amongst major stakeholders of the party. I remember Femi Fani Kayode writing a column titled “Who has Bewitched PDP?” Allegations of Sheriff being planted by the APC and his being a relative of President Muhammadu Buhari became quite rife.

All these notwithstanding, a national convention was called for May 21, 2016, in Port Harcourt. Having zoned the Chairmanship of the party to the North East, Sheriff had stormed the Port Harcourt convention with a firm belief that he would be endorsed as the substantive National Chairman of the party. Little did he know that danger was lurking around the corner as he proceeded to the Garden City. On realizing that his friends had suddenly turned foes, he quickly beat a retreat, called a press conference and hurriedly cancelled the Convention. In spite of this, the Convention still went on without him, with his deputy, Prince Uche Secondus, who was privy to the plot, presiding. This controversial Convention produced Ahmed Makarfi as the Chairman of the Caretaker Committee and marked the beginning of 14 months of hostilities between Sheriff’s and Makarfi’s factions. Several attempts were made by different interested parties to settle the dispute including the very well-publicized one by President Jonathan himself, but all failed. The “family affair” mantra of the PDP had collapsed like a pack of cards and the centre could no longer hold.
It is important to note that the judiciary was used vigorously by both parties to prosecute this fratricidal war. At the first level of the battle, courts of coordinate jurisdiction were approached by the two warring parties who were handy to give conflicting judgements on the same matter. Up to seven judges of seven high courts heard different cases on this single matter of who was the authentic chairman of the party. Different pronouncements and injunctive reliefs were made until February 17, 2017, when Justice Bitrus Sanga of the Court of Appeal, Port Harcourt, gave judgement in favour of Sherrif. Makarfi, naturally proceeded to the Supreme Court which finally gave judgement in his favour, thereby ending the biggest crisis of the self-proclaimed biggest party in Africa.

In delivering the judgement, Justice Bode Rhodes Vivour had pointedly condemned the conflicting pronouncements coming from the judiciary. Hear him: “The stakes are high in political battles, so if allowed, political office seekers will not hesitate to file multiplicity of suits on the same subject matter, hoping to get a favourable judgement from one court or the other.
“Heads of courts must by now, be aware of this trend and stop this annoying practice of assigning cases of the same subject-matter to different judges. This is unhealthy and renders the process, completely useless, ending up making the judiciary, a laughing stock” he concluded. I hope those concerned who I am convinced do these things deliberately would heed the wise counsel and save the judiciary and the nation such embarrassment as cited by the learned Justice of the Supreme Court.
Before the Supreme Court judgement, there were all sorts of permutations about how the decision would go. Many PDP stalwarts that this writer spoke to were sure that Sherriff was going to win. According to one of them who is a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Sheriff was going to win given the position of the law. He argued that because the convention was postponed by him, the Port Harcourt meeting would be declared illegal by the Supreme Court. He, however, added that most of the party leaders including himself were with the Makarfi faction and had concluded plans with another party to defect en mass, after the judgement. Another pro-Makarfi Chieftain felt that Sheriff would win because he had the support of the APC at the highest level as his main mission was to destabilise the PDP and weaken opposition as 2019 approached. Somehow, some Sheriff supporters that one spoke to were equally very confident of victory at the Supreme Court. It is therefore clear that the judgement took so many people by surprise.

This column believes that the judgement is very good for democracy. Those from whom we copied insist that democracy would be a farce in the absence of strong and virile opposition. A government that operates without opposition may sooner or later become totalitarian and pursue policies that may not be in the interest of the public. The opposition also ensures that government policies are scrutinised, criticised and that government is held to account for its actions. The stronger the opposition, therefore, the stronger the democracy. It is only hoped that PDP will get its acts together to play the role of credible opposition now that it has been saved by the Supreme Court.
It is, however, important to identify some of the issues that helped PDP in its journey downhill and hope that it would be courageous enough to address them, otherwise, if it continues with the celebrations and euphoria of the victory, it may end up going the same route from where it was just rescued. One major problem of the party is impunity. This, in my opinion, is its greatest undoing. PDP became so undemocratic that one or two people could sit in the comfort of their homes and determine what happened to millions of their members.
In most cases, such decisions by the powerful few were founded on sheer selfish and narrow interests. My personal experience would be useful here. It was in 2014 when I decided to run for the governorship of my state under the PDP. As expected, there were a lot of other contenders, many of them, eminently qualified. Rumours started making the rounds that the outgoing governor was supporting a particular candidate. That was not supposed to be a problem if everyone was going to be subjected to an open, free and fair contest where delegates would be allowed to nominate their preferred candidates. The party announced the program for the election of the 3-man per ward delegates that would, in turn, nominate the candidates for the election.

The National Secretariat had sent a five man committee to handle the exercise. On arriving the state capital, the state party officials, on the instruction of the then governor, ensured that the election did not hold. In the middle of the night, the committee members were handed a list from the government house containing all the selected delegates of the entire 184 wards, as compiled by the then governor and his cronies. Of course, the outcome of the impending primaries had already been determined with the manipulation of the list of the ward delegates. Yours truly had to leave the party while those that remained were met with a fait accompli on the day of the primaries. The crises and consequences of that singular action haunt the state till this day.
The next issue is arrogance. It is important for PDP to understand that power belongs to the people. By some coincidence, “Power to the People” is the slogan of PDP. What is doubtful is if the party practices it. Because power truly belongs to the people, they can give and take it away. I am sure that PDP does not need any preaching on this particular matter as it had tasted the power of the people with its eviction from the villa in 2015. In ruminating about the arrogance of PDP, I remember that this party had boasted recently that it was going to remain in power for 60 years. I thought that was such an affront. It was also not unusual to hear the Party describe itself as the “biggest” party in Africa. Since it was difficult to corroborate their statistics, I am not sure that anyone took them up. However, it bears asking, what was meant by the biggest party? Does big necessarily mean good? What would PDP have done if it were the African National Congress of South Africa that was formed in 1912? This arrogance seems to be ingrained in the leadership of the PDP as they have started boasting again about how they will win the 2019 general election.
In my opinion, PDP has also done a lot of bad things in the country. It is largely responsible for turning elections into a “do or die affair”, ensuring that they are declared winners by all means even when they lost elections. Having also been in power since 1999, the level of corruption in the polity had been promoted to unprecedented levels by them. Whenever people discuss Nigeria, there seems to be a consensus that our major problem is poor leadership quality. It follows that PDP had not given this country good leadership in its 16 years of governance.

The management of the economy under the 16 years of PDP had been mixed. During the Obasanjo years, the PDP government did well in negotiating the country out of the humongous debt that hung like a Sword of Damocles on the country. It also did well with building a war chest of reserves and savings from oil windfall, even though subsequent governments, also of the PDP, would squander the entire savings and revert to accumulating more debts even when oil prices were still going up. However, their inability to diversify the economy, institutionalize transparency in government, wage an effective war against corruption and insecurity did not place them in a position where history would be very kind to them.
They failed woefully in building infrastructure, resolving the power conundrum, and solving the problem of import of petroleum products in a country that prides itself as the 6th largest producer of oil. They also failed in reducing the size and cost of government and instilling fiscal discipline in government. Again, the same PDP which set up the 2014 Constitutional Conference that cost so much in terms of people’s time and money, abandoned the document and passed up a great opportunity to restructure this country when it was in a position to so do. It is, therefore, ludicrous to hear some major actors at that time call for the restructuring of the country just two years after.
Like I had highlighted earlier, an opposition is critical to a successful democracy. While the gladiators are talking of 2019, one wants them to play the opposition politics which they had literally abandoned this past 14 months when they were in limbo. As they count their losses in a bid to learn from the past, I am of the opinion that they would have put up better showings in the last gubernatorial elections in Edo and Ondo States, even if they weren’t going to win those elections. A lot of National Assembly seats have been lost to defection by their erstwhile representatives. They need to put in serious efforts to stop the haemorrhage. The “no victor, no vanquished” posturing of the leadership is good. It is, however, important to ensure that it is not implemented in breach. Again, the setting up of a reconciliation and conflict management committee is useful not just for reintegration and inclusiveness but to ensure that those that lost do not align with opposition to launch another ferocious attack on the party. It is also instructive that some states with PDP governors queued up behind Sheriff. The way the winners will treat the losers will go a long way in determining the response of the supporters of Sheriff. The posturing by some of the leaders of the party to the effect that those that lost should be arraigned before a disciplinary committee will do no one any good.
The tone should be different. The party should make internal democracy its watchword. There is a lot PDP has to learn from the just concluded Senatorial bye election in Osun State that produced Senator Demola Adeleke who replaced his late brother, Senator Isiaka Adeleke. APC had denied Demola Adeleke a ticket and imposed a less popular candidate who was the Governor’s choice. Demola Adeleke quickly joined PDP and defeated his APC rival to clinch the Senatorial Seat. While PDP is learning from this experience, I have no doubt that APC should also unlearn a few things from here. Permit me to use this medium to congratulate my easy going and rhythmical brother and friend, Distinguished Senator Demola Adeleke for winning the election.
Finally, let me remind PDP that it is not all the time that people get a second chance after they have bungled their first. This is a rare privilege which they must guard jealously. If they bungle it again, they may as well prepare for oblivion.

Politics › Outside The Box By Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 12:06pm On Jun 12, 2017

Nigerian Universities in the Development Equation
June 12, 20170741
OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI , Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

3
OUTSIDE THE BOX
BY ALEX OTTI
Penultimate Wednesday, I was privileged to deliver the 2017 Convocation lecture of the Babcock University. Below is the edited paper which I hope, readers will find useful.
Introduction:
In his book, the ‘Origin of Species,’ Charles Darwin wrote: “One general law, leading to the advancement of all organic beings, namely, multiply, vary, let the strongest live and the weakest die.” In other words, in the natural order of things, the weak tribe, the shallow ethnic group, the intellectually limited race and the socially inferior being or nation becomes predisposed to an unfortunate but certain end, death; which yields room to the more accomplished, the intellectually superior, the technologically advanced and the culturally sophisticated.
Life leaves little room for weakness. Life is a continuous evolution of superior minds and societies attaining greater levels of growth and development. Indeed, life is about change and adaptability. Perhaps at no other time in human history have change and adaptability become so significant than now. Computing power is several times greater than it was as recently as twenty years ago when there was no Business to Customer (B2C) online shopping platform like Alibaba.com, Amazon was just a fledgling online book retailer, as distinct from the retail behemoth it is today. Think about it: just ten years ago there was no Jumia, and no Konga. Elsewhere, Tesla has shown that cars can actually be driven on batteries rather than fossil fuel. Solar energy solutions are becoming increasingly cheaper and more diffuse. Waste to energy (WTE) solutions are converting shredded used tires to low Sulphur Diesel fuel and medium capacity electricity. In other words, high grade thinking is redefining the human workspace, home space and indeed play-space.
Putting it in even more epigrammatic light, one of the greatest minds of the last century Albert Einstein noted, ‘We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.’ If Nigeria is to correct the errors of the past and chart a course that assures her of an enviable place in global history, she must start with a new mental paradigm.

THE DEMOGRAPHICS
To provide perspective, we should take a brief overview of the nation’s socioeconomic context. Nigeria is a giant with gigantic problems. With over180 million people and an annual population growth rate of 3%, if we apply ‘the rule of 70’, Nigeria’s population would double over the next 20 years.
Also of critical importance here is the fact that Nigeria’s population is one of the youngest in the world. Over 70 percent of the country’s population is less than 35 years of age resulting in what you could term a “pot-bellied youth bulge”. This is not necessarily bad, but if this growing army of young talented Nigerians is not put to productive use, the intense social unrest that could be precipitated could lead to one of the most disturbing socio-political upheavals ever experienced on the African continent, making the Arab Spring of the last decade, a child’s play.
Officially, Nigeria’s unemployment rate is considered to be about 18% today. At best this is a politically convenient figure, but even this number is 100% higher than the 9% unemployment rate recorded in 2015, a mere two years ago. The clearly worsening unemployment situation in the country at a time the nation graduates roughly 350,000 students yearly, leaves little to the imagination about the dire consequences of not growing the nation’s economy by at least 10% per annum over the next 10 years.
UNEMPLOYMENT SUBTERFUGE
At the beginning of 2016, the unemployment rate was at 10.4%, by mid-year, the rate had increased to 12.1% with a year-end forecast of 18%. We are almost at ‘the tipping point’ when the unemployed may begin to push back against society and escalate open social dissension.
So far, we seem to be blissfully ignorant about the implications of our demographics and surprisingly treat the issue of population and its nuances as if it were some minor inconvenience, like a mosquito humming in our ears. To be sure, Nigeria’s burgeoning population and its attendant repercussions are far more complex and exceedingly 80 percent more dangerous than a bite from a female anopheles mosquito.
Again, lemonade comes from lemons not oranges; if a nation aspires to the greatness it must groom great people, it cannot thrive with people unaccustomed to advanced thinking, intellectual rigour and social flexibility. If Nigeria is to progress, we must improve our productivity and the challenge starts with our schools, especially our universities.
EDUCATION AND ITS RESPONSIBILITIES
At the heart of a nation’s progress are not its mineral resources, its ethnic or tribal affiliations nor necessarily its geographic location but the quality of its people. The difference between rich and poor nations is a contrast between the types of people that live within their different geographic boundaries. Nigeria has remained a struggling country, largely because it has incrementally betrayed its responsibility to the education of its youth. Nigeria is one of the lowest spenders on education on the African continent.
Rich nations have better-educated people and tend to attract such people to reinforce already exceptional talent. We can debate whether Harvard is an exceptional University, but what is not in contention is that Harvard attracts exceptional students, just like Oxford and Cambridge Universities. Gifted students are attracted to Harvard and become gifted lecturers who in turn attract gifted students. Which University in Nigeria today can lay claim to attracting the finest of Nigeria’s brains deliberately and consciously to build a school tradition of excellence that will attract independent funding? Most Nigerian universities, private ones inclusive, are funded in ways that cannot guarantee the excellence that the nation requires to forge ahead in an increasingly digital world, with technology proceeding at a pace Microsoft’s Bill Gates once said was ‘faster than the speed of thought’. The world of Tesla’s Elon Musk is certainly not the world the Nigerian educational system is preparing our youths for. We are talking of the world of advanced robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), neuroplasticity, driverless cars, digital urban roadways, automated route switching metro lines and smart cities! The emerging world order is driven by intellect and creativity and no longer the dumb mining and trading of natural resources.
As a people we have become comfortable with a lazy view of life. We have come to expect that we should do well because we have a dubious wealth from oil. This is one of the most blatant falsehoods we have created. Wealth is not a ‘thing’ it is a ‘process’. The problem we face today is that our education is not designed to create wealth. It is structured and nurtured to produce at best bureaucrats, and at worst plutocrats. Men and women who expect to become wealthy through all kinds of means other than the rigorous application of their intellect, and creativity. These are people that bury money in septic tanks; stash loot in obscure buildings and flaunt everything but intellect.
If this country must progress, schools must be dedicated to producing students equipped to think creatively, deeply and unconventionally. Albert Einstein did not become great by memorizing the theories of his lecturers, but by diligently challenging their concepts unless they could irrefutably prove their correctness. He persistently asked the question, ‘why’ and if that would not be sufficient he would then ask, ‘why not’ an alternative! It is this critical tradition that has now culminated in a composite worldview where in the western world today, universities do not generally teach students ‘what’ to think but ‘how’ to think!
This is at the very basis of the failure of Nigeria to translate academic knowledge into solutions. This has inhibited our ability to solve even the most basic of problems in the areas of science, technology, and engineering. The lack of intellectual flexibility and creativity, the willful laziness of our campuses have resulted in a nation tha��s policies, produce papers, host seminars and create a buzz that makes them noticed. The comfortable and serene indolence we seem to be witnessing today helps nobody. Elsewhere, universities take positions; challenge orthodoxy; keep people and governments on their toes. They do not have to be ‘nice’ but professional.
We need a national agenda on education. Where are we? Where do we want to go? And how do we get there?

CONCLUSION
If our universities would be relevant in the development journey, they must make drastic changes. We cannot continue to do the same thing and expect different results.
Ladies and gentlemen, as the young minds here today go into the world to express the gospel of education for development, I wish to admonish that they will find no free lunches, they will find no helpful handlebars to prop themselves up. What they will find is a world prepared to accept them for what they can offer. They will succeed to the extent of the value that they are prepared to add to society. This, therefore, is the primary task of our gowns, to provide top class minds to drive the development of our towns. While Einstein insists that “education is what remains when one has forgotten what one has learned in school’, I shall modify it to “education is what is of value when we put what we learned at school to use”.
Someone out there may like to draw my attention to a failed educated person and a successful person with little or no education. My response is, for everyone educated person that failed, I will show you ninety-nine successful educated people and for everyone uneducated successful person, I will show you ninety-nine failed uneducated persons. I will also like to add that if the successful school drop-out was able to complete his education, only God knows how successful he would have been.
Email: alexottiofr@gmail.com

Politics › Outside The Box By Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 12:00pm On Jun 12, 2017

Politics › Supreme Court Rocked By Bribery Allegation by comradefery(op): 7:13pm On May 04, 2017

Tension In Abia Over Alleged Briberry Plot In Governorship Tussle.

Editor's note: Supreme Court has fixed May 12 to deliver final judgment on the Abia state governorship tussle. Samson Ogah is challenging incumbent, Okezie Ikpeazu, on who was the qualified candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, in the 2015 governorship election. Ikechukwu Nzeribe in this post alleges that there is a plot to change the favour of the judgement between Samson Ogah and Okezie Ikpeazu in court. Another high-profile scandal is set to hit the judiciary again, unfortunately at the apex level in the ongoing tax falsification case between PDP governorship candidate Dr. Uche Ogah and Abia state governor, Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu .

A revelation from a group, Abia Democratic Think-tank (ADT), relying on an insider information, alleged that the plot involves directly on one hand, a high-ranking Supreme Court Judge. On the other hand, a South East governor and same ranking Supreme Court Judge. It is gathered that the plot which is ultimately centered on money and marital relationship sentiments, is being used by the South East governor as a backup to have two high ranking APC personalities in the government endorse the plot. READ ALSO: 6 reasons Buhari really needs to continue to rest Okezie Ikpeazu They plan to endorse with huge sums of money and pledge of decamp to the APC as conditions given to the governor. The source also disclosed that the plot was actually the reason why the South East governor claimed a few months ago that some governors in the South East would soon move to APC.

It would be recalled that after the Abia state PDP primaries in 2014 which produced the then governor, Theodore Orji, was alleged to have been manipulated in favour of Ikpeazu. Dr. Uche Ogah had gone to the Federal High Court to challenge the qualification of Ikpeazu to contest the primaries given that he did not only fail to pay his taxes as and when due but also falsified tax clearance certificates and receipts to mislead the electoral body and the party. Ikpeazu and his people used all sorts of means to frustrate the case with appeals that ended in the Supreme Court which ruled in January 2016 that there is merit in the case and transmitted it back to the Federal High Court for expedited hearing. In June 2016, the Federal High Court in its judgment held that Ikpeazu actually falsified records and removed him as governor and asked that Ogah is sworn in. Ikpeazu started procuring a back yard stay of execution from a judge of the state high court in Abia. The said Judge has since been dismissed from the judiciary. The source also disclosed that the Supreme Court has decided to manipulate the upcoming judgment of May 12 in favour of Ikpeazu. Because there are no sufficient legal arguments to say that Ikpeazu did not falsify his tax returns, the Supreme Court is set to deliver the judgment on the basis of technicalities. One of the technicalities to be used is that Ogah rejected the outcome of the primaries where he came second and cannot turn around and benefit from the same results.

The second argument is that Ogah did not specify the section of the PDP constitution that required that payment of taxes is a condition to participate in its primaries. They also will argue that payment of taxes is not a constitutional requirement to contest an election in Nigeria. Some of the questionable arguments made by the court of appeal would be rehashed including the issue of originating summons and therefore denied Ikpeazu fair hearing, ignoring the Appeal Court's earlier decision.. The alleged Supreme Court Judge at the center of this plot, is a blood sister of the wife of a Traditional Ruler from Ikpeazu's old Obioma Ngwa extraction is involved. Sources close to this conspiracy say the deal had since been sealed a few months ago. The traditional ruler in question is a beneficiary of a Jeep, a lot of money and a brand new storey building to compensate him and his wife for brokering the deal that is aimed at keeping Abia in perpetual political slavery. The traditional ruler and another undisclosed personality were said to have expressed anger recently against some high-ranking officials of the state government for their penchant for mismanaging sensitive information especially under the influence of alcohol. They insisted that it would be better the case is lost than to win a case that would turn back to deny them their freedom in the hands of security agents, courtesy of individual blunders, especially during this period of undercover operations.

Ikpeazu and his inner caucus have been celebrating and have told people that Ogah, Otti, and Nwosu are wasting their time and money. At some point, it appeared that the Supreme Court would not hear Otti and Nwosu, as boasted by one of Ikpeazu's lawyers until reason prevailed recently and they decided to hear them anyway, to fulfill all righteousness even when the judgment had since been written. The judgment allegedly prepared to be delivered on the 12th of May had been allegedly agreed at a conference of the judges led by the Ranking Judge himself since March. Even though a majority of the judges took different positions, the Ranking Judge insisted and had his way. Some of the judges felt that a case of forgery and falsification should not be treated in such a manner as to give the impression that the Supreme Court was tacitly endorsing falsification of records and forgery of documents, especially where it involves high ranking public officials presiding over sensitive positions. READ ALSO: Renewable energy graduate returns home to light up his community The judgment which has already been written amongst the judges would dismiss Ogah's appeal for lack of merit and reaffirm Ikpeazu as governor. This is very sad given that majority of Abia people wanted change given the election controversies and poor governorship credentials of Ikpeazu. This would be the second time the Supreme Court will be inflicting injury on Abia people based on vested Interest.

The aggrieved source, according to the group which is said to have been part of the government and its plot until recently shortchanged, and knows almost everything that transpired has vowed to wait patiently for the Supreme Court to execute its coup in favour of Ikpeazu before collaborating with the group in unleashing its full arsenal with indisputable facts that would make many heads roll.

Source: Naija.com

Politics › Outside The Box By Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 11:21am On Apr 17, 2017

No Madam, Please Let’s Not Go There

April 17, 201701984

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI , Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com
OUTSIDE THE BOX

By Alex Otti; alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to apathy; from apathy to dependence; from dependence back into bondage.” – Alexander Fraser Tytler (1747-1813)
The concept of democracy is hinged on two fundamental principles. These are first, separation of powers and second checks and balances. Separation of powers requires that each organ of government is independent of the rest, to avoid abuse of power. The doctrine of checks and balances, on the other hand, makes it possible for each arm of government to limit the powers of others to ensure against excessive power appropriation. A classic example is that while the executive branch of government can veto bills from the legislature, the legislature can also override the veto, subject to laid down rules. Over time, as democracy continued to take root, countries started granting some form of independence to other important agencies of government. These include the military, the press and the Central Bank also known as the reserve bank in some climes. Despite the independence of these agencies, there is still some influence exerted on them by the government. Narrowing down to the Central Bank, it is reasoned that the autonomy of the institution is critical to insulate the lender of last resort from interference from politicians whose interests are normally short-term in nature. While politicians may want to pursue populist agenda to win votes, an independent Central Bank should be more interested in pursuing policies that may not be popular, but would lead to long- term stability of the economy. Thus, a political party may want to pursue a fiscal deficit policy to put more money in the system and make people happy, but a professionally-run Central Bank with eyes on the inflationary implications of fiscal deficit, would roll out a contractionary monetary policy to contain inflation and stabilise the economy.

The major mandates of the Central Bank include:
• Managing the nation’s currency
• Managing money supplies
• Managing interest rates
• Setting cash reserve requirements
• Acting as lender of last resort.
• Supervision of the banking system
• Ensuring financial systems stability.
Recently, the Honourable Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun, was quoted to have asked a legislative team that paid her a visit, to consider cutting down the “monstrous” powers of the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria. According to the report, she had said that it was the erstwhile Governor of Central Bank, Professor Chukwuma Soludo that had gone to the National Assembly in 2007 to seek and obtain legislative approval that resulted in the overbearing powers of the Governor of Central Bank.
While one sympathises with the Honourable Minister, it is instructive to avoid the kind of situation highlighted above by Professor Alex Tytler who paints a very worrisome picture. Though some commentators have described it as being “hyperbolic” the import of his assertion cannot be lost on any student of history. Fiscal deficit has been the bane of most governments and when it is not controlled, the tendency for the economy to be plunged into a crisis is almost axiomatic. Beyond the certainty of inflation, is the burden of debt service on the economy. A cursory look at our economy shows that beyond the 18% inflation rate in the last few quarters, a whopping 35% of our revenue budget goes into debt service. This is a huge number as it leaves the country with just 65% of the budget to work with. If you consider that a large part of the remaining 65% goes into salaries, then you will agree that what is left for infrastructure is infinitesimal and this is inspite of huge infrastructure deficit facing the nation. Now, if we go ahead with the proposed $30billion loan, (I hope we don’t, anyway), we don’t need a soothsayer to tell us that virtually all our revenue would go into debt servicing.
I am aware that sometime in September last year, the Honourable Minister had advised the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN to consider reducing interest rates by lowering the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from the present 14% to encourage investment and reflate the economy. Recall that in the MPC meeting of July 2016, the committee had raised MPR from 12% to 14%, a decision many analysts disagreed with, given that the economy had just been pronounced as being technically in recession. However, members of the MPC in a unanimous vote on Tuesday September 20 retained MPR at 14%. The minister was not alone in the disappointment of the MPC’s decision as yours truly, shares the minister’s view that in a period of recession, interest rates should be lowered to encourage consumption.

The MPC had its own arguments which included that given the level of inflation at almost 18%, lower rates would lead to negative real interest rates and is capable of discouraging savings and investments, both local and foreign. MPC also contended that lowering interest rates would encourage speculators to borrow and launch further attacks on foreign exchange which was rising very rapidly against the Naira. I have checked the literature and I am unable to lay my hands on other areas of sharp divergence between the CBN and the ministry, even though I concede that there may be other issues that may not be in the public domain. It is, however, curious that the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance is a member of the MPC. At least one should have expected one descent at that meeting in question, but the vote was unanimous. My understanding is that this is a useful platform to attain monetary and fiscal policy harmony.
It is important to note that this is not the first time an attempt is being made to whittle down the powers of the CBN Governor. Under Soludo, in 2007, against the understanding of the independence of the CBN, the Presidency, directly intervened by stopping the redenomination of the Naira, full current account liberalization and currency convertibility policies that the then Governor was set to implement. President Yaradua was said not to have been properly briefed and therefore not convinced. The CBN had briefed the Presidency just a day before the public announcement as it believed it did not require the President’s approval as per the CBN Act 2007. Of course that was the end of those policies.
Under Sanusi, legislators championed the CBN amendment Act 2012 that sought to bring annual budget of the CBN under the approval authority of the Senate. This generated a lot of opposition from the polity leading to strong representations at the public hearing. If I remember correctly, the amendment was stillborn. National Assembly proponents of the amendment were irked by a statement made by Sanusi to the effect that the National Assembly was responsible for 25% of the recurrent expenditure of the Federal government.
Senators descended heavily on him summoning him to come and not only withdraw the statement, but apologise. Sanusi stood his grounds and refused to apologise. The battle line was drawn and in what looked like a vendetta mission, the Senators went after the CBN act to cut Sanusi’s powers. He was also accused of bailing out 9 banks in 2009 with some N620b ($4.2b) without appropriation by the National Assembly. CBN explained that the funds didn’t need to be appropriated as they were loans to the banks in the discharge of its role as lender of last resort. The CBN was further accused of issuing some N5.6trillion ($36.6b) government backed zero coupon bonds to purchase toxic assets and recapitalise some ailing banks between 2010 and 2011. All these are now history, Sanusi has since moved on to become the Emir of Kano but the institution remains. This points to the truism in the local proverb of “soldier come, soldier go, but barrack remain”. It also speaks to the fact that rules should neither be made nor changed because of disagreements with incumbent occupants of an office as those occupants will leave sooner or later.
A cursory look at the CBN Act 2007 shows that the activities of the CBN are supposed to be regulated and directed by a board of directors like every other institution. The board is made up of the Governor who is also the Chairman, 4 Deputy Governors, Permanent Secretary, Ministry Of Finance, 5 Directors appointed by the President, and the Accountant General of the Federation. In practice, external board members are in the majority making it difficult for the internal members to have their way without the consent of the external members, most of them appointed by the President. I believe that this is a great governance standard adopted by the act. Unfortunately, since the advent of the present administration, the board of CBN has not been constituted and therefore, the control envisaged by the Act has been put in abeyance.
While all the aforementioned roles are important, monetary policy seems to be one of the most important. Simply put, monetary policy refers to the process by which the central bank controls the supply of money in a bid to contain inflation rate or interest rate to ensure price stability and confidence in the local currency. On the other hand, fiscal policy deals with taxation, government spending and government borrowing. Fiscal policy is usually under the control of the Ministry of Finance. Under normal circumstances, there is need for complementarity between the two policies. In practice, however, both of them work at cross purposes with each other, particularly, when the two institutions have different targets. Best practices require that the roles are entrusted in different hands without one reporting to the other. It must be noted though, that both the Minister of Finance and the CBN Governor report to the President and both serve at his pleasure, even though for a CBN governor to be relieved of his position before the expiration of his tenure, the President would need to secure the nod of the National Assembly with two thirds majority vote. We are, however, aware that President Jonathan found a way round the National Assembly vote when he decided to remove Sanusi in 2014.

It is only in Zimbabwe out of all the countries I researched that the Central Bank is not independent. Given the experiences of that country, I am not sure there is anything to learn from it. Foreign investors and the international community look out for how independent the Central Bank is as a condition for making a decision to invest in that country or not. So, independence gives the investing community a lot of confidence. The truth is that foreign investors and international multilateral agencies feel that our CBN as currently constituted is not independent enough as they have been clamoring for a full- fledged deregulation of the Naira which the CBN has refused to implement. They don’t believe it is the CBN acting without some influence from the executive.
An independent Central Bank is usually very prompt in taking decisions which can save the economy huge losses rather than waiting for approvals from either a minister or parliament. Because an independent Central Bank is supposed to have a long-term view of the economy as against the short-term interest of the politician, there is bound to be disagreements and tension between the Minister and the Governor. That tension is productive as the economy stands to benefit from it.
I will therefore make some recommendations for the minister which I believe would help her get round the frustration. One, both the minister and the governor should be members of the economic team which I’m told is now in place. The direction the economy should go should be thoroughly discussed and agreed at that committee. This would ensure more congruence, once everyone is convinced on the right way to go.

Thankfully, the President has nominated 5 members of the CBN board a few days ago, awaiting Senate confirmation. Even though this is coming almost 2 years late, the minister will benefit from a functional board with appointees of the President in the majority. The minister’s position and opinion would hopefully be well represented at the CBN board.
Finally, the minister will do well to engage productively, with not only the CBN, but other arms of government. Engagement is very useful given that it helps to sell superior positions and opinions and bring otherwise opposing sides to the desired side, subject to the superiority of argument and debate. Within the fiscal policy framework are major changes that will help stabilise the economy. The minister must insist on zero-rising ways and means, aggressively work to rebalance recurrent expenditure with capital expenditure, reign in the debt service baggage, and move towards increasing tax to GDP ratio from our current lowly 6% to at least the sub Saharan African average of about 13% , just to mention but a few. If we can wrap our heads around these issues, then monetary policy will just become a sweetener.
The walk to CBN independence is a very long one that started in 1958. The progress that has been made so far is very commendable. Any attempt to reverse it, is like setting us on a reverse journey to the Stone Age. It is not a trip that anyone should contemplate.

Politics › Abia State Government's Phobia For Alex Otti And The Plot To Evade Justice by comradefery(op): 9:21am On Apr 03, 2017

ABIA STATE GOVERNMENT’S PHOBIA FOR ALEXOTTI AND THE PLOT TO EVADE JUSTICE.

By Ferdinand Ekeoma

Watching the Popular American Security Diary (Investigative Discovery), I have come to appreciate the immense consequences and effectiveness of “False Lead” in the escape of criminals being trailed by security agents, regrettably, this manipulative anti security strategy seems to have become the most important tool of the members of the destructive Abia Political cabal made up of some Societal Nonconformists, Absolutists and Barbaric Opportunists who are once again desperate in their despicable move to uphold a governorship mandate the people of Abia State never gave them and could not have given them.
After discovering that their illegal activities recently were being monitored by undercover security agents and media men following leakage of information linking them with an alleged failed plot to use Billions of Abia Tax payers money to bribe their way out of their tax forgery mess, the government has since resorted to raising false alarm, threats and misdirected media stunts through the Governor’s Chief Press Secretary and other Media Aides aimed at not only scoring cheap and irrelevant political points, but also to present their perceived foes in bad light, as well as divert the attention of their opponents and security agents while they carry out their futile bribery voyage.

After issuing some inconsequential and ineffective press releases, raising false alarm concerning the so called plots against their government, without reference to empirical facts, and without the expected response from their perceived enemies, Ikpeazu’s Chief Press Secretary Enyinnaya Appolos summarized the tragicomedy with a theatrical kind of Interview granted to an online media recently where the said Appolos dedicated energy that would have been channeled to thinking out creative ideas for the development of Abia state, in spewing mendacious gibberish about their phantom achievements, while ridiculously trying to undermine as well as present their nemesis, Alex Otti as the cause of their poor outing since their inglorious assumption of office via an electoral coup.
When asked about the achievements of the Ikpeazu led government, the CPS reeled out a few roads built by their government and dozens of other roads he claimed were ongoing, but without much ado he jumped to their most difficult but unfinished project, which is Alex Otti, when he said, “He (The Governor) has plans to do more, but it should be noted that within the same period of two years, the governor has been in and out of courts. Of course you are aware that the defeated governorship candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Dr. Alex Otti went to the tribunal to challenge the election of the governor. That matter ran through all the way to the Supreme Court and immediately after that, when the governor thought everything was over for him to settle and really deliver to Abians the promise he made. But seemingly from nowhere, we had to again face another desperate judicial action by Uche Ogah and Friday Nwosu who were co-aspirants to the PDP ticket in 2014. As we speak, the matter is still pending at the Supreme Court with ruling expected in the Ogah matter in May, while the Nwosu matter is yet to be settled. Even the defeated APGA candidate who hitherto litigated his matter up to the Supreme Court has rejoined the desperate legal bonanza aimed at stealing the mandate Abians freely gave the governor”.

And when asked what the government was doing to checkmate insecurity in the state, Appolos said, “We all know the issue of security is a challenge to governments all over the world; it is not peculiar to Abia. The challenge is fast becoming a moving target requiring continuous improvements to checkmate and we are continuously innovating to meet the challenges of securing our state. Even developed countries like Britain are facing security challenges and am sure you are aware of the recent terror incident in London. I also read the other day that a Divisional Police officer was kidnapped somewhere in Lagos. Imagine a situation where a DPO was kidnapped in a state with possibly the best resources in the country. We are not trying to compare our case with others much as we know that the issues are right there, but like I said, we are doing everything to checkmate rising crime rate that we noticed after the yuletide season. The government has given all kinds of support to the security agencies in the state to do their work effectively. Recently, the governor was at zone 9 headquarters here in Umuahia where he took a tour of their facility and what they have, up till now, the governor of Abia State didn’t know that where we have presently as the headquarters of zone 9 police, is rented property. What the governor did after visiting their temporary Offices at Ehimiri, he moved straight to their proposed permanent site at Ogurube Layout, and he promised that before the end of this year, the zone 9 headquarters permanent site in Umuahia will be ready. More than 30 vehicles with modern communication equipment have been donated to security agencies in the state within the past two years”.

On the arrears of salary owed Abia workers, Ikpeazu’s Chief Press secretary said, “The major cause of where we are today, in terms of salaries, is certainly not because Abia State Governor does not want to pay. It’s because the country as a whole is suffering from economic hardship and that has affected us with reference to revenue inflows” He went further to say, “we are doing everything possible to clear salary and pension arrears in the state. What does not get reported is the fact that more than 80% of our Civil Servants have received at least January Salaries”.
I intentionally wrote down the Chief Press secretary’s responses to the three key questions thrown to him so that the reading public could see the insincerity, gross incompetence and medieval extremism of those presiding over the affairs of Abia State.
When APGA as an opposition party raised an alarm about the insecurity ravaging the state, Ikpeazu’s Vuvuzellas resorted to attacking Alex Otti, but two years down the line, the Ikpeazu led Government is still bold enough to mention the 20 salon cars they gave to the police in 2016 as the massive achievement they recorded in fighting insecurity in Abia since assumption of office, when the Chief Security Officer allegedly goes home with hundreds of millions as monthly security vote. But are we surprised? No we are not, because a General cannot afford to disarm the troops that saved him at the war front, especially when the thought of another selfish war still occupies his mind.
What better defines the tragiccomedy going on in Abia than the statement by Ikpeazu’s CPS that about 80% of Abia Civil Servants have received their January Salaries, when he earlier admitted the receipt of billions of naira in bailout funds and Paris club refunds; Does it mean Ikpeazu and his men do not know that the recession rhetoric they are using as an excuse for failing in their responsibilities, especially in the payment of workers salaries is actually the reason why those funds were released at this point in time? Or could it be that Alex Otti is also tampering with the funds spiritually so that they could unjustly owe Abia workers while they continuously loosen their belts?
Since Ikpeazu’s Government has found Abia worthy of comparison with London, which warranted the CPS’s reference to the recent London terror attack as a justification for what is happening in Abia, I think it would be proper for the CPS to let his readers know about the swift response of security agents in London which led to the killing of the terrorist and rescue of endangered citizens, unlike Abia where dozens of innocent citizens have lost their lives in the last two years while the criminals still use surrounding villages as safe haven without challenge, because the government is careless and clueless about serious measures that should be taken against the hoodlums, but always very proactive at ensuring media blackout of those crimes.

How could a governor’s spokesman abandon simple questions that bother on the achievement of the government he is part of and begin a wild goose chase kind of bulk passing using their nemesis, Alex Otti as a shield when the innocently accused Otti has broken no law by going to seek redress in court as was done even in states where elections were reasonably seen as free and fair, let alone Abia where their 2015 electoral crimes would remain unmatched for decades to come. Why should Ikpeazu and co derive joy in committing electoral and tax frauds against Abians, but refuse to tolerate lawful legal actions aimed at salvaging the people and state they have so cheated?
Where were the irrational agents of this government when Governor Chris Ngige embarked on nationally acclaimed Road Construction Revolution while still having a fierce legal battle with Governor Peter Obi and the Ubas backed by the then FG? Obi’s Government was later refunded the money Ngige’s Government spent on Federal Roads in Anambra, because the government assessed and found those roads standard enough to warrant a refund.
Why would Ikpeazu the offender try to present himself as the offended when the facts of what transpired in Abia remain public knowledge?
In his Poem “The Casualties’’ the great Nigerian Poet, Pa J.P Clerk explained that the casualties were not only those that died or sustained injuries during the Nigerian/Biafra war, but that those who came out unscratched, those who buried the dead, those who looked after the injured, those who died “by installment” etc were all causalities. The reality of Pa Clerk’s poetic rendition later manifested in the life of one of the prominent men who fought the war from the Nigerian side as he was quoted to have miserably shouted later in his life, “The Spirit of Biafra is pursuing me”.

Honestly the resort to mentioning Otti’s name by the officials of Abia Government at every opportunity is not by choice, the Abia Spirit of Divinity in display during the Gubernatorial election and the tears of the suffering masses might after all be hunting the oppressors of Abia. The same spirit came calling in Enugu where Ikpeazu had gone in early 2016 to seek cheap publicity amongst the Adventists, by proclaiming that he had forgiven Alex Otti who contested election against him, to his shock and disbelief, the congregation greeted his provocative statement with humiliating coldness and offensive murmuring, as they angrily starred at him like an Ofala Masquerade. The church members didn’t just dismiss his statement because Otti himself is also an Adventist, but because they knew that the Abia Governorship Election was cleanly and clearly won by Alex Otti, so the earlier Ikpeazu and allies realized that he and his men are also casualties of their unjust actions, the better for them.
As the members of Abia Political Cabal begin this new but last round of “False Lead” political strategy by raising false alarm, media war, blackmail, threats etc, they should realize that there is a new dawn in our judiciary, and Abians feel confidently assured by the promise of the New CJN to sanitize our judiciary as a way of deepening our democracy, saving the suffering masses and sending their oppressors to compulsory retirement.

Politics › Outside The Box By Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 3:23pm On Mar 27, 2017

Stagflation, Fragility and Arrested Development of the Nigerian Economy
March 27, 2017101645

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI , Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com
OUTSIDE THE BOX

By Alex Otti alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

On Friday March 10, 2017, I was one of the speakers at the Vanguard Economic Discourse where the erudite Prof. Charles Chukwuma Soludo gave the Keynote address. I hereby publish the paper I prepared for the discourse, even though I did not have the luxury of time to give a detailed presentation at the event.
INTRODUCTION
My intervention is going to focus on a long term approach towards building a virile and resilient economy. My contention would be that the issue of stagflation popularly called recession is a short term problem that even if we solve, will not resolve the deeper structural political and economic problems that have separated us from becoming the giant we hope to be. Until we address those problems, development will remain a mirage. The onus should not be left with leadership alone as it would not want to commit suicide. Civil society and patriotic elite should use all legitimate means to force the restructuring to happen.
It is not in dispute that the country is going through some economic challenges which has had severe impact on people and businesses. As individuals, our personal finances and lives have felt the negative impact of the downturn. These impacts can be felt in the following areas:
• High unemployment
• Decline in GDP
• Weak local currency value
• High interest rates
• Increasing prices of goods and services
• Weakening Stock market
• Soft real estate market
• General drop in the standard of living
PRESENT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Macroeconomic indicators have been challenged in the last couple of quarters leading the Federal government to officially declare by mid-2016, that the economy was technically in recession. An economy is said to be in recession when it witnesses negative growth rate in Gross Domestic Product for two or more consecutive quarters. We have experienced negative GDP growth rates for the four quarters of 2016. In quarter 1, the growth rate was -0.36%. It further declined to -2.06% in quarter 2, and contracted further to -2.24% in quarter 3, while quarter 4 recorded a negative GDP growth rate of -1.30%. In economic parlance, a recession is normally accompanied by a general decline of prices of goods and services. It was not until the 1970s that economists realised that it was possible for recession to occur alongside inflation. This kind of situation, they called Stagflation. So, what we are dealing with in Nigeria is not recession as such, but stagflation.
Our situation is caused by some short term and long term circumstances, though most analysts have dwelt on the short term causes. The short term causes will include oil price decline which resulted in massive revenue drop for the government, the largest spender in the economy. Owing to the oil price decline, there was also a general strain on foreign capital inflow. The security situation in the country, particularly the North East and the Niger Delta has not encouraged investors. There has, therefore, been a massive exit of Foreign Direct Investment in the country. All these and more have brought untold pressure on the country’s foreign reserves and exchange rate, further weakening the economy. The impact of Stagflation on businesses could be very damaging and in some cases, catastrophic if not properly managed. They include decline in revenue and ultimately, income, drop in production and productivity, decline in demand for goods and services, delays in payment of wages and salaries, layoffs and outright closures.

CHANGING THE NARRATIVE
Somehow, we know there are more fundamental issues around the economic challenges than what we have been told so far. The point is that recession or stagflation may just be the symptom of a fundamentally flawed economic structure. An economy that has remained import- dependent for decades cannot withstand external shocks. An economy characterized by decayed infrastructure, in the area of roads, rails, airports, marine transport, and the biggest one, power cannot be said to be resilient. There is a table (Table 1, available online only) which highlights Power Generation Capacity for 44 selected countries divided into the Highest 10 countries and the lowest 10. Nigeria understandably, is not only in the lowest 10, but boarded last in the list of the lowest 10.
A country which seems to have deliberately embarked on a de-industrialisation policy and cares less about the number of manufacturers and industrialists closing shops cannot claim to be ready for global competitiveness. A country that pays little or no attention to education nor health care delivery is not ready for sustainable economic development.
A country that has refused to diversify from a commodity to a knowledge economy cannot be said to be ready for the 21st century. A country that borrows to finance its recurrent expenditure even in an era of oil boom cannot qualify as being ready for development
We cannot take ourselves very seriously when we continue to defend a bloated, unreasonable and unsustainable political structure.
We cannot continue to deceive ourselves, pretending to be an oil economy when in the real sense of it, even with our position as the 6th largest producer of oil in the world, we are but a very poor country with some oil, whose impact on a per capita basis is at best insignificant. We conveniently fail to compare ourselves with other oil economies as doing this would puncture our hypnosis in our dream land. (See Table 2 on the website). This table shows that while a barrel of oil on per capita basis is shared by 2 people in Kuwait, 4 people in Qatar, 15 people in Angola and 35 people in Algeria, 105 people shared one barrel of oil in Nigeria, according to 2015 average daily production statistics. It also shows that we are the largest importer of refined petroleum products amongst all the countries analysed.

A country that loves to humour itself as a large or potentially large economy when it knows its fundamentals are very fragile cannot be said to be serious. We say we are the largest economy in Africa measured by GDP after we rebased our GDP in 2014. We, however, conveniently forgot to tell the rest of the story. We failed to tell our people that what is important is not the absolute GDP figures, but GDP per Capita. The Current GDP figures of $415b, (some analysts believe it is much lower) placed us at No 26 in the world, but when you look at our GDP per Capita of $2,800, we move down to No 180 out of the 228 countries ranked by the IMF World Economic Outlook, 2016. And in Africa, we ranked No 17 out of the 53 countries ranked. These are the real numbers that we don’t like to show, but they are the numbers that attempt to compare apples with apples and not with oranges.
Bottom line: ours is a very weak and fragile economy. In fact, we have continued to slide downwards in the Fragile States Index (FSI) ranking from No 17 in 2014, when we were ranked amongst the “Alert” category, through No 14 in 2015 moving downhill to the “high alert” category at No 13 in 2016 out of the 178 countries ranked. We are only better than countries like Guinea, Haiti, Afghanistan, Chad, Sudan and Somalia.
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
We have argued that recession is a temporary situation that can easily be reversed once the economy becomes GDP positive. If for instance, oil prices suddenly recover and we begin to see pre 2014 prices again, we will be out of recession in a jiffy. If for some reason we reduce imports either by fiat or by accident and begin to spend less foreign exchange or if foreign exchange supply increases for some strange happenstance either by reason of increased exports or inflow of foreign investment, recession will abate. If we increase spending in real terms, either by reducing interest rates or by borrowing, recession would give way. The government may also choose to reduce taxes and tariffs to leave more money in the hands of people and business. The same effect will be witnessed if government finds a way of paying salaries and domestic debts owed to local contractors. An expansionary government spending policy by way of issuing fiscal stimulus package will put more money in the economy, encourage consumption, jump start production, and create jobs. All these will cure recession, but the fundamental problems with the economy will remain and recession can happen again if any of the challenges that led us here show up again and the bad neews is that they are bound to show up again.

It is therefore important to look at those things that must be done to ensure a long term solution to our economic challenges. My submission is that the solution transcends economic considerations as the major area to look at is the political structure. I am therefore, like every other student of political economy, inclined to locating our economic crisis within the context of the structure of the polity. Even at that, within the economic sphere, somethings must be done right to support a sound system. We must set up a robust economic development plan with clear deliverables and monitoring mechanism to ensure zero tolerance for non-implementation. I am not unaware of previous attempts at economic planning in the country. The major problem with those plans was that there was no will to implement them. Our suggested plan would be very heavy on implementation. The plan must set clear guidelines on how to industrialise the economy, how to build a non-import dependent economy, how jobs would be created and what number over a defined period of time. It must also set out how to build sustainable wealth for the country that is not commodity based. It must focus on infrastructure and the promotion of micro, small and medium scale enterprises as a sine qua non for economic development. The economic plan should also provide for massive investment in education to eradicate illiteracy and herald an innovation and technology revolution while at the same time encouraging a sustainable health care delivery system for the populace. This plan must also not be silent on eradication of poverty and corruption.

Still on structural reforms, we need to tinker with the democracy model we copied from the US. It is simply not working and I do not see how it will work. We cannot afford it as it is not only inefficient, but it is unsustainable. We cannot afford a Presidency with minimum of 36 ministers and thousands of aids. We cannot, in all honesty, continue to fund 36 governors and their deputies with thousands of aids and assistants. We do not need 109 senators nor do we need 360 house of representative members with over 2,500 aides. In fact, we do not need a bicameral legislature. We cannot afford close to 1000 house of assembly members with thousands of aids across the 36 states of the Federation. Neither can we afford 774 virtually idle or impotent local government chairmen and thousands of councilors maintained by the public till. We must reject a situation where over 70% of our annual budget is used to run less than 1million people by way of recurrent expenditure while a meagre 30% is set aside as capital expenditure for the remaining 180m+ people (see Table 3 on website). We should not tolerate a situation where government revenue cannot pay salaries of government personnel like have been the case in the recent past.
Since, it will amount to committing suicide for some of these far reaching reforms to be made, given that it would require making changes to the constitution and those that can make those changes are also the ones benefitting from the status quo, I am sure people will wonder how they can be achieved. It takes the people to dictate the kind of changes they require. But for that to happen, the populace must be educated to even understand what it wants. The patriotic elite in the society must lead and insist on the reforms. Some of these absurdities have been encouraged by the silence and docility of the populace. It is time people begin to speak out and reject leaderships that do not mean well for the country. It was Albert Einstein who warned that “the world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything”. Unfortunately, most of what we know today as civil society, has become clapping society, out of greed and penchant for “stomach infrastructure” but it is the people that must insist and get the reforms and changes they need. I do not see that we need more than 6 states with 6 governors and not 36. We need only one chamber of the National Assembly with no more than 60 members. We need a lot fewer ministers and aids. We can do with much fewer local governments. Public service at this level should literally be pro bono to attract the right caliber of leaders who had been successful in other endeavours and discourage ‘chartered politicians’ whose interest in politics is self-serving.

CONCLUSION
The current economic crisis did not just happen. We planned for it by failing to plan for a resilient, self-reliant economy. The situation was compounded by a masturbative belief that we are an oil economy. We actually began to behave like one, when in the real sense of it, we are but a poor country with some oil and gas deposits in some parts of the country. We went on a spending spree, importing everything from the profound to the profane with its attendant impact on our foreign reserve.
Wittingly or unwittingly, we started a project of de-industrialisation of the economy by promoting infrastructural deficit and decay. We left our educational system in ruins, as well as our healthcare delivery system. At the same time, we were making little progress with eradicating corruption in virtually all aspects of our economy. To make matters worse, we have been operating a profligate political system that we can ill afford.
To get out of these on a sustainable basis, we must tell ourselves the truth and hit the reset button immediately with a view to institutionalising sound economic and political reforms otherwise, we should prepare for a full blown descent into a failed state.

Politics › Teacher, Don't Teach Me Nonsense-ii by comradefery(op): 2:17pm On Feb 27, 2017

Teacher, Don’t Teach Me Nonsence-II

OUTSIDE THE BOX
By Alex Otti; alex.otti@thisdaylive.com
“The educated differ from the uneducated as much as the living from the dead” Aristotle (384-322BC).
“Training is everything. The peach was once a bitter almond; cauliflower is nothing but cabbage with college education” Mark Twain (1835-1910)

We open the second phase of our discourse of education with two great quotes from two great minds. Aristotle and Mark Twain need no introduction. Aristotle was an ancient Greek philosopher and scientist, who together with Plato and Socrates laid the foundation for what is today referred to as Western Philosophy. His contributions cut across logic, metaphysics, mathematics, physics, biology, botany, ethics, agriculture, medicine and politics. He was a student of Plato, who was in turn, a student of Socrates. He is often referred to as the father of logic. One of his theories that I like so much is called syllogism. Simply put, syllogism refers to a sound reasoning that says that “if A is equal to B and B is equal to C, then A is equal to C”. To Aristotle, to the extent that the premises of an argument are true, then the conclusions are guaranteed to be true.
Samuel Langhorne Clemens who is popularly known by his pen name, Mark Twain, was an American writer, humourist, publisher and lecturer. He was well known for creating two unforgettable characters in literature namely, Tom Sawyer and Huckleberry Finn. He made a fortune from his writings and lectures. He was later to lose everything in his investments which turned out very badly, mostly owing to innovative disruptions of that period. One interesting thing about Twain, beyond his well acknowledged humour was his integrity. Having filed for bankruptcy in April 1894 and having transferred his copyrights to his wife to prevent creditors from laying their hands on them, he worked extra hard with his friend, Henry Rogers of Standard Oil, and ensured that all his creditors were paid every dime they were owed, one year after. Mark Twain insisted on paying, even though he was under no legal obligation to do so. I consider his action a great feat given that the current President of his country, Donald Trump, and/or his companies had filed for bankruptcy between 4 and 6 times, depending on how one counts resulting in unmitigated loses to banks, creditors, bondholders and stockholders. Twain’s humorous talent is demonstrated in his quote about cauliflower being cabbage with college education.
There is no controversy over the fact that we have consistently paid less and less attention to education in the recent times in this country. To corroborate this, all one needs to do is to assess the quality of products of our institutions of learning over time. In the immediate post-colonial era, someone with a First School Leaving Certificate, also known as “San Six”: a bastardised pronunciation of Standard Six certificate, could speak very well, write very well, knowing where to punctuate, add comas and full stops. That is hardly the case with holders of School Certificates and equivalents today, not to talk of First School Leaving Certificates. A lot of them can hardly make correct statements without grammatical and mechanical blunders. Some can’t even write their names. What do we expect when their teachers are as bad, teaching them nonsense? The Governor Oshiomole/Graduate Teacher episode presents a funny but interesting scenario. In a verification exercise in Edo State, a few years ago, Governor Adams Oshiomole had asked a “graduate” teacher to read what was written on her age declaration certificate. What followed was a complete disaster. The teacher who was supposed to teach students, simply could not read. She had to be assisted by the governor to read virtually every word on that paper. You don’t have to take my word for it. Just watch “Nigerian Graduate Teacher Can’t Read Own Certificate in Edo State” on YouTube.
In teaching, just like most things in life, what you sow is what you reap. You cannot have a teacher who can’t read and expect his or her products to be able to read. The rigour that goes into the selection process and the minimum standards set for teachers have a lot to do with the quality of teachers we have. In the past, teaching was a very respectable and noble profession, attracting the best hands and brains. I am not too sure that the situation is the same today. In so many places in Nigeria, teaching has been left for those who could not find jobs elsewhere. A major reason for this is the competitiveness of both compensation and motivation. If we do not get these right, we may as well forget attracting the right quality of personnel to this otherwise important profession. After all, it is said that if you pay peanuts, you attract monkeys. It is also for survival reasons that a lot of terrible things happen between teachers and students especially at the tertiary level. These days, you hear about “sorting” by the higher education students. This shameful word, for those who have not encountered it, refers to buying of grades from teachers in cash and kind. You may be as scandalised as I was a few years ago when a university student explained it to me. Students actually pay teachers for grades and depending on how much the student is willing to pay, he could score A, B, or C. Female students whose teachers are male could sort in kind. Here, the teacher sleeps with students in exchange for grades. That is the level of decay that has become the hallmark of our educational system. Those who went to school decades ago would agree that these kind of actions were abominable at that time.
Some teachers have also devised another way of merchandising the students in order to make illegitimate money off them and their sponsors. They sell handouts and pamphlets and shamelessly make the students understand that the purchase of these materials at extortionist rates determine whether the students would pass or fail their subjects. You refuse to buy at your own peril. The quality of the materials put together for this purpose, most times is so poor and substandard. This is the reason why we have a lot of unemployable and poor quality graduates roaming the streets.

Just like Eneke the bird said in Chinua Achebe’s “Things Fall Apart”, “since men have learnt to shoot without missing, it has learnt to fly without perching”. Following from that lead, since many educational institutions have opted to churn out ‘certificated illiterates’, a lot of organisations have devised ways to ensure they select only the best from the lot to ensure a “contamination-free” environment. They, therefore, organise stiff recruitment exercises and set up ‘finishing schools’ for retraining of the few manageable graduates prior to engaging them. Some oil companies have had to set up schools that their prospective recruits have to pass through before they are finally hired. In my previous life as CEO of a financial institution, I had to get personally involved in the recruitment of fresh graduates. I would make out time within an otherwise crowded schedule to have a final one on one interview with those who the stiff selection, training and retraining process had thrown up. It was such an expensive exercise, but I insisted and still insist it is very much worth it, given my belief that no organisation can be better than the quality of its people.
Beyond the issue of the faculty, there is the fundamental issue of the number of spaces available for our students. In my last intervention, I demonstrated that we have failed to plan for the education of our populace going by the number of spaces available at primary and secondary school levels. The situation becomes even worse at the tertiary level. According to recent figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, out of the 11, 703, 709 applications received by the Joint Admission and Matriculation Board, JAMB, between the years 2010 to 2016, only 2, 674,485 students were admitted. This means that on the average, less than 23% of our young people who indicated interest in studying at the tertiary level were given the opportunity to do so. This, you will agree is very sad. You will also agree that if not for the entry of the private universities, the situation would have been worse. Out of the 152 universities in the country as at the end of 2016, 40 are Federal, 44 are owned by states while 68 are private universities.
While there is no argument about the help that the private universities have offered in admitting a lot of the students, some of them have been said to be dealing with problems of funding, faculty and curricular. Some have located around existing institutions to benefit from the existing faculty from other universities. Some of these resource persons have now been so stretched and this is one of the main reasons why quality has continued to drop. Some of them that were set up as business have painfully begun to find out that owning a university is not a business that yields money in the short run. Unfortunately, they are realising too late. It is therefore important that regulators are empowered to ensure minimum standards are met and continue to be met by the universities, be they government or privately owned. We know that is not happening at the moment and the presence of mind to enforce that is painfully non-existent.
It is for the foregoing reasons and more that Nigerian universities have remained in the lower rungs of the rating of the universities in the World and Africa. In the latest edition of Times Higher Education Ranking, 2016, no Nigerian University made it to the top 981 universities in the world, quite unlike in 2015 when we featured at No. 600. That explains how fast the rest of the world is moving and or how fast Nigeria is moving in the wrong direction. In this same report for Africa, University of Ibadan that placed 11th in 2015 had dropped to the 14th position. Out of the best 15 universities in Africa, South African Universities took the first 6 positions, except the 4th position that went to Makerere University, Uganda. University of Ghana came 7th, while the University of Nairobi came 8th. Three Egyptian universities took the 9th to the 11th position while 2 Moroccan universities placed 12th and 15th. In another report, the 2017 African University Ranking, which largely agreed with the Times ranking, only 4 Nigerian universities made it to the top 50 in Africa. These are Universities of Ibadan and Lagos, Obafemi Awolowo University and Ahmadu Bello University Zaria.
From the above report card, it is clear that we need to have a serious conversation about education in our dear country, particularly if we agree with the words of Nelson Mandela that “education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world”.
Like they used to say in the early years of Nollywood home video, watch out for part 3

Politics › Teacher Don't Teach Me Nonsense By Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 12:23pm On Feb 13, 2017

Teacher, Don’t Teach Me Nonsense –1
February 13, 201731746
OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI , Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com
OUTSIDE THE BOX

By Alex Otti alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

Credit for the title of today’s column is to no other person than the late King of Afro beat music, the Abami Eda himself, Olufela Olusegun Oludotun Ransome-Kuti, also known as Fela Anikulapo Kuti. Those who are old enough would agree that Fela, who died 20 years ago, was not just a philosopher but a crusader and revolutionist. In this 1980 song, Fela insists that everything one does must have been taught by someone. At birth, the teachers are the parents, and by school age, the teacher is the school teacher while at university level, the teacher becomes the lecturer. When one gets done with school and begins to work, Fela argues that the teacher becomes the government which can also be called the society. What is taught, according to Fela, is a function of Culture and tradition. Virtually all the countries of the world have got its teaching right based on their culture and tradition except African countries.
He believes that is the reason we have problems with governance in Africa because our governments ignore our culture and tradition in administering our countries and instead learn other people’s culture and tradition. This is also the reason, he continued, we adopted the colonial democracy model which he called “dem all crazy” and “demonstration of craze” According to him, demonstration of craze brought about corruption, mismanagement, stealing, inflation, election rigging and the new one called “austerity measure” that made him laugh. He laughed at ‘austerity measure’ because the rich steals from the poor and forces the poor to tighten their belts to pay for the former’s profligacy. He believes the white man taught African leaders the wrong things and actively encouraged them to misgovern their societies. Since Fela is not in the same category with those that have been taught the wrong thing, he warns the teachers not to attempt to teach him nonsense.
Today, we are going to look at teaching or better still, education and how seriously we have addressed that subject in Nigeria. We will also like to situate education within the context of the myriad of problems we are grappling with and how qualitative and ‘quantitative’ education can help liberate our youths from the shackles of poverty and hopelessness.
As a point of departure, I completely agree with Fela that whatever we do, we must have learnt. Think of a new born baby. It starts learning how to eat from liquids through semi solids to solids. The child learns how to crawl and subsequently how to walk and run. The first set of teaching happens in the home. Where the parents devote a lot of time to teaching their children, they turn out to be better children than where the parents had little or no time for them. Of course, this is the rule. Just like it is said, to every rule, there is an exception. The rule, however, is that good parental upbringing is synonymous with good behaviour in children and vice versa. Any situation that does not conform to this principle is an exception. Parents must, therefore, pay attention to the kind of examples and training they give their children particularly at those early formative stages of their lives. It is often said that man is a product of his environment. A tardy environment would naturally produce a tardy human being.

Beyond the family is the early school setting. This would include nursery school which is not available to everyone particularly the majority brought up in the villages. The officially recognised and generally acceptable early level education is the primary school. For most children, the primary school defines their basic encounter with education. Most kids take their bearing from their primary education. Habits get formed from here. Unfortunately, this is the level that has received the greatest neglect from government. Granted, there are private schools available at this level, majority of primary schools in Nigeria are public schools. Statistics has it that there are over 62,000 public primary schools in Nigeria with pupil-teacher ratio of 40 and close to 24,000 private primary schools with pupil-teacher ratio of about 25. The structure is such that public primary schools are supposed to be managed, funded and supervised by the local government system. Public secondary schools are under the supervision of state governments, while public tertiary institutions are under the supervision of the federal government, except if otherwise owned by the states.
This is where the fundamental problem is located. Most people should be aware of how local governments are run in most parts of the country. Some governors have formed the habit of appropriating the funds due the local governments on a monthly basis. To achieve this, they refuse to let local governments hold elections and instead, appoint transition local government Chairmen and Councillors. By the definition of the term transition, the appointments are supposed to be for a short while, usually six months, prior to an election that would produce substantive local government officers. But what do we get? The governors continue to renew the transition officers’ tenures after every 6 months, such that some governors would rule for 8 years without conducting local government elections. And who are the likely people to be appointed to the transition roles? They are cronies and miscreants, most of them without any agenda except to let the governors have access to the till and sign off that the money in the Joint Local Government account has been used for purpose intended.

They only account to their patrons who appointed them. Given that the people did not have a hand in the appointment of the transition officers, those officers owe no explanations to anyone in the local government. In a few cases where the governors feel compelled to conduct elections, they simply compile names of their thugs and touts and conduct a sham election and use the state electoral commissions to return these thugs, forcing them on the people who were not allowed to vote in the first place. This is exactly what happened in one of the states in the South East which claimed to have conducted a local government election in December last year. The state electoral body shamelessly returned the names of the candidates of the ruling party across board and boasted that the election was free and fair. Meanwhile, everyone in the state knows that there was no election. So, the question is, what kind of primary schools do we expect these illiterate charlatans to run?
Sadly, we are talking of the most important and the fundamental stage of learning and teaching. We are talking about the foundational teaching of the child. Where the foundation is faulty, it is very unlikely that any correction can happen along the line of higher education. The other important issue is the quality and quantity of teaching staff. Who are the teachers at this level? Are they such that won’t teach the children nonsense? Did they go to school? If yes, what kind of school did they attend? Were they taught nonsense? How did they perform in their time? Were they amongst the best or worst? In order words, what kind of skills do they have? After all, you can’t give what you don’t have. What kind of motivation is in place for them? Are they paid commensurate wages or starvation wages? Are the wages competitive enough to attract and retain the best talent to teach the ‘future generation’? Do their salaries come regularly or does government wait until they go on strike before paying them?
In terms of numbers, we had demonstrated earlier on that the pupil-teacher ratio in Nigerian public primary schools is 40. That shows that on the average, for every teacher, there are 40 pupils. The case is different for private schools where the ratio is better by close to 50% at 25. According to Wikipedia, the rule is that the smaller the ratio, the better the quality of learning. On the other hand, high student–teacher ratio is often cited for criticizing proportionately underfunded schools or school systems, or as evidence of the need for legislative change or more funding for education. In the same period, primary school enrollment was about 23million while total number of classrooms in the public primary schools stood at 342,303.
The World Bank has come out with data on pupil to student ratio for most countries of the world. In the latest figures which were published in 2015, the world average ratio was 24. The best performers are Cuba, Kuwait and Norway with an average of 9 each. The average figure for the Arab world, Middle East and North Africa was put at 20 each. North America had a pupil-teacher ratio of 15 while Europe stood at 13. Meanwhile, Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) had an average figure of 41. Our own figure of
40 is very similar to those of the HIPC. May be that is where we belong.

Infrastructure is another important factor. In the 21st century, we still have schools that could not survive the test of the medieval ages. A lot of the public schools lack basic learning and living amenities. Some have no libraries, no laboratories, no computers, no books, no desks, no hygienic environment, no modern healthcare facilities and no sporting facilities. With everything lacking, it is doubtful that any serious learning takes place in these schools. However, they must graduate pupils every year to go to secondary schools.
A lot of the schools do not even have relevant and up to date curricula for the modern age. In this kind of setting, teachers will end up teaching the students nonsense. However, like I had pointed out earlier, these schools must churn out pupils to populate the secondary schools on a yearly basis. Talking about secondary schools, this is another area where we have planted disaster. First of all, the way the system is set up requires that a large number of the pupils that finish from primary schools are programmed not to proceed to secondary schools and we seem to be comfortable with that.
Why do I say so? While there were over 60,000 primary schools with over 342,000 classrooms and 23m pupils, the public secondary school capacity was 11,874 schools with about 4.4m enrollment studying in 84,000 classrooms with a better student teacher ratio of 26. So, in the minds of our planners, more than 80% of pupils who would be finishing from primary schools would not proceed to secondary schools. That is very bad news. I agree that it may not be everyone that finished from primary school that would make it to a secondary school, but I think 80% drop out rate is scandalous.
We must begin to pay serious attention to the quality of education we give our children. Education is the most important gift we can bequeath our young ones. It is the instrument they need to navigate the challenges of the future. An educated mind is a liberated mind. It is a mind that can think in an articulate manner with a view to solving the challenges of life. Most of the young people that make themselves available for social vices and criminal activities are uneducated ones. Even if an educated person is jobless, he knows that he has a future that is bright. He knows that there is no glass ceiling to how far he can go. He knows he has solutions to the problems around him.
I know someone out there would like to point my attention to a failed educated person and a successful person with little or no education. My response is, do not rejoice too quickly, because for every one educated person that failed, I will show you nine successful educated people and for every one uneducated successful person you show me, I will show you nine failed uneducated persons. I will also like to say that if the successful school drop-out was able to complete his education, only God knows how successful he would have been.

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Politics › Of Apple And Crude Oil by comradefery(op): 10:38am On Jan 30, 2017

Of Apple And Crude Oil

OUTSIDE THE BOX
By Alex Otti; alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

Let me start with a confession. I like apple products, from the iPod, through the iPad to the iPhone and of course the iTunes. Apple makes beautiful and very user-friendly products and sometimes, they are intoxicating, seductive and addictive. This write up, however, is not about the products as such, as it is about innovation and what happens when the human intellect is combined with a thinking-friendly environment and a clime that supports creativity and industry. The story of apple is a very interesting one. Two friends who, by the way, were school drop outs, Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak, founded the company from their garage on April fool’s day in 1976. A third friend Ronald Wayne, was invited by Jobs to take a minority stake in the company and act as an arbiter, should the two Steves fight. The company has since grown to become the most valuable company in the world with a market capitalisation of over $630b and revenues of over $216b as at end of last year.
Their products are some of the most important products in the technology space. Apple remains one of the most innovative companies of the world. Could Apple have done so well if the founders were from and operated out of Nigeria? I believe opinion would vary on this question, but one thing we should all agree on, is that our country is not wired to support startups, innovation and industry. Of course, the founders had their fair share of challenges when they were starting. Banks were unwilling to touch them when they were trying to commercialise their innovations. In compiling the story of Steve Jobs, Nik Rawlinson wrote that Wozniak was the real “techie” guy while Jobs was the business man. Both of them sold something, (HP calculator by the former, and Volkswagen microbus by the latter) to finance the production of the first apple, christened “Apple 1”. Jobs, having fixed a commercial price against Wozniak’s position of selling the computer at a price that would just cover the cost of the component parts, got a deal to sell 50 units of the computer to Mr. Paul Terrel, owner of the Byte Shop. Walter Isaacson in his book, “Steve Jobs: The Exclusive Biography” stated that the two youngsters didn’t have resources to fulfill the orders, neither could they get loans from banks at that time. Virtually all the parts stores, including Atari, where Jobs had worked, wanted cash for any components sold. At the end of the day, it was Byte Shop’s order that heralded the Apple Corporation. Jobs had taken the order to a component parts dealer, Cramer Electronics and convinced the manager to put a call through to Mr. Terrel to confirm the order. “Terrel was at a conference when he heard over a loud speaker that he had an emergency call (Jobs had been persistent). The Cramer manager told him that two scruffy kids had just walked in waving an order from the Byte Shop. Was it real? Terrel confirmed that it was, and the store agreed to front Jobs the parts on thirty day credit” The rest, like they say, is history.
Nigeria is the 6th largest oil producer in the world. Oil was discovered in Oloibiri in the present day Bayelsa state in 1956. There is no doubt that a lot of innovation has been introduced in the way oil is produced between the time oil was discovered and now. What we have not done is to harness the opportunity such that Nigerians would be technically sound enough to take over most of the production in country. I’m aware of all the efforts that have been made to domesticate oil production. I know about the Nigerian Content Development initiative. I also know about the Cabotage law which is not just about oil, but also about Shipping and vessel ownership. I’m also not unaware of the efforts made by Nigerians to implement some of these laws in breach. I’m aware that some foreigners in connivance with unscrupulous Nigerians go into joint ventures that present Nigerians as owners of companies which in reality are foreign companies. The whole idea is to present those companies as Nigerian companies for the purpose of defeating the law on indigenous ownership and local content. This normally goes with compensation to the shortsighted Nigerian accomplices.

We have unfortunately failed to add significant value to the crude we produce. While apple has created so many products and continue to improve on existing ones, we have basically been shipping crude oil in its crudest form since it was discovered. Again, I am aware that we had set up four refineries in the past to process the crude oil into final products like diesel, premium motor spirit, kerosene, aviation fuel etc. It was a great idea to set up those refineries, but at the moment the 455,000 barrels per day refineries are operating at a shameful 5% capacity. Like I had stated elsewhere, per 2015 figures, given that our local consumption stood at 408,000 barrels per day, while we produced an average of 24,000 barrels per day, we had a wide local consumption gap of 384,000 barrels per day which is filled with importation. Meanwhile, other OPEC countries are doing a lot better. Algeria, for instance, has installed refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and actually refines 628,000 barrels, while it consumes 418,000 barrels per day and exports 210,000 barrels per day of refined products.
Kuwait with a population of 4 million people has installed refining capacity of 936,000 barrels of crude per day. It however, refines over a million barrels per day, the excess being accounted for by Gas to Liquids. Kuwaitis consume just 345,000 barrels per day while they export over 680,000 barrels of refined products per day. The question to ask is who or what has bewitched us? Beyond all the primary products listed above, there is a lot we could have done with our crude to make our life better and diversify our sources of revenue. The most pathetic is that gas associated with crude production which other countries reinject or produce are flared with reckless abandon. Someone described that action as setting money on fire. Of course, little or no attention is paid to the environmental hazard of the continuous flaring of gas to host communities and their neighbourhoods.

We also got so lazy that virtually everyone in the country is now dependent on oil. When prices came tumbling down, we all became prostrate. Meanwhile, we had demonstrated that we were just pretending, when we convinced ourselves that we were an oil economy. From our estimated population of over 180m people and our average production of about 1.7m barrels per day, about 370 people will share 1 barrel of oil per day and at a price of $55 per barrel, each person would be entitled to a little less than 15 cents per day and at the current exchange rate of N305 per dollar, it would amount to less than N46 apiece. I don’t know that it makes sense for us to pay as much attention to oil at the detriment of a lot of other possibilities open to us.
Statistics indicate that Nigeria earned $95b from petroleum exports in 2012, $90b in 2013, $77.5b in 2014 and $42b in 2015. Looking at the revenues for Apple for the same period, the company earned $157b in 2012, $171b in 2013, $183b in 2014 and $234b in 2015. The difference is very clear.
It is almost becoming too late for us to sit down and hold an honest conversation about the structure of our economy. Is this the way we want to continue? Where are we going to be in the next five to ten years? Can we do things differently? What sectors of the global economy would continue to boom in the foreseeable future. Can we refocus our people to become more productive and creative? I believe that all the ingredients exist to move this country from the joke of potentially great to a truly great country. The most important ingredient, to my mind, is human capital. However, there must be the political will and the honesty of purpose to ensure that we harness the great potentials and the ingenuity of our people. As we go from town to town and from village to village, we are confronted with the reality of very industrious and hardworking people. But all sorts of speed breakers are placed on their way. We must begin to dismantle them for our people’s ingenuity and creativity to blossom.
We must first and foremost remove barriers to entry into business. There is a comparative report compiled annually by the World Bank Group referred to as “ease of doing business report”. This report rates 190 countries on a scale such that higher rankings indicate more conducive business and regulatory environments for starting and running a local firm while low rankings indicate the opposite. As of last year, Nigeria ranked 169 out of the 190 countries rated. In Sub-Saharan Africa, countries that placed better than us include Mauritius 49, Rwanda 56, Botswana 71, South Africa 74, Kenya 92, Ghana 108, Zimbabwe 162, and some other 30 countries before getting to us, unenviably sitting at the 169th position. For ease of understanding, it is important that we highlight some of the issues that the World Bank measures to arrive at the report. These include starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, and resolving insolvency. I thought this was important to underscore that everyone has a role to play in resolving the problem of road blocks to creative and innovative thinking.

I cannot conclude without drawing attention of the young people to some of the lessons to be learnt from the story of Apple. It is important because many a times, we are very quick to point fingers at the multitude of reasons why things could not be done. In terms of education, the two young Steves were drop outs from school. They refused to allow that deter them. They set up a joint company, complementing each other in terms of skills. These days, we want to go it alone, sharing no risks and sharing no skills. They brought in a minority shareholder who they believed could be an arbiter in case of fracas. That was forward thinking. That banks rejected them could not stop them. These days, what we hear is “I don’t have capital, banks are not lending money” etc. Those could just be excuses and they are not new. Note that “Steve Jobs was persistent” and I dare add, creative, taking an LPO to a parts supplier to get credit. They had to sell what they had to produce the first apple computer. Sometimes, you may need to part with something of value to create better value. Finally, as they became successful, they worked harder, put on better thinking caps and this led to new and better products. You don’t need to rest on your oars, when you think you have arrived. That is the time to work harder.
By the way, Apple products are so pricey going by the current dollar exchange rates. The iPhone 7 goes for anywhere between $769 and $969, the iPad sells for between $800 and $1100, the MacBook will set you back some $1000 to $2,400 and the iPod commands a tidy $400, depending on specification. Meanwhile, our crude oil is still struggling at around $55 per barrel. Just like the saying goes, you dare not compare Apples and Oranges, much less a product as crude as crude oil.

Politics › Exit Recession, Pay Salaries by comradefery(op): 1:41pm On Jan 16, 2017

EXIT RECESSION, PAY SALARIES

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI, Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

“You shall not muzzle the ox while it threads out the grain, and the labourer is worthy of his wages” 1 Timothy 5:18
“Look! The wages you failed to pay the workers who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord Almighty” James 5:4
“The Prophet said, you should pay the labourer his wages before his sweat dries up” Sunan Ibn Majah Vol.3 (2443)
“And oh my people! Give just measure and weight, nor withhold from the people, the things that are their due”. Quran 11:85

It is no longer news that a lot of state governments are owing workers’ salaries. Some of them are in arrears for several months. In some states, workers are owed over 6 months’ salary arrears. Pensioners are worst hit as some of them have not received their pensions for several years. Some Governors of the concerned states have blamed their inability to pay on the recession the country has witnessed in the recent times. Both the Bible and the Quran are in agreement that workers are deserving of their compensation. In fact, the Quran is very clear about prompt payment of wages and speaks to paying workers before their sweat dries up. Prophet Muhammed had this to say, “ I will be the opponent of three types of people on the day of judgement” one of such people is “one who hires a worker but does not pay him his right wages owed to him after fulfilling his work.
I considered it expedient to start this column by referring readers to scriptural injunctions since we are very religious people. Most often than not, our religiosity is only convenient as we tend to sensitize ourselves to those passages of the scriptures that support our actions while we anesthetize ourselves to areas that are opposed to our positions.

From the moral perspective, it is only fair that an employer pays his worker as and when due. The English Standard Version of James 5:4 quoted above, refers to the refusal to pay wages as “fraud”. My agreement with this version stems from the fact that there is normally no agreement between the debtor and the creditor for the creditor’s money to be held back by the debtor prior to the action of the debtor. Secondly, like I had argued in my last column on interest rates, the time value of money is ignored. This simply means that the value of the money paid after the time it should have been paid is not the same. We are all aware that what N100 could buy yesterday, would require more than that amount to buy today. In owing workers, nobody talks about how they would be compensated for alienating them from their money for the period they are owed. Whenever the government decides to pay, there is no discussion of interest to be applied to the outstanding salaries.

Meanwhile, if the government were to borrow money to pay up the wages as and when due, that loan will come at a cost. So, the act of forcefully borrowing from the worker, owing him for some months and returning the same amount of money that was forcefully taken does not have a better description than “fraud”. That we have been doing that without challenge by the workers neither makes it right, nor takes away anything from its real name. Again, I consider it an act of encouraging corruption for an employer to owe his workers and still expect him to work. There must be a message being passed by the employer to the employee.
So, the concern that I have is how the debtor-governments expect that their workers would survive without pay for so long. Employers must be worried about the wellbeing of its workforce. If they don't do it out of altruism, they must do it out of self-interest. If your workforce is not in top form, productivity would suffer. Employers are concerned about productivity for it is only a productive workforce that would guarantee long term survival of the institution. Is it likely that our owing governments are not interested in the the productivity of their workforce? There is this Soviet joke which was later modified by the Hungarians thus, “they pretend to pay us an honest wage and we pretend to put in an honest day’s work”. This is “Mutually Assured Deceit” (MAD) at its best.

Perhaps the most compelling argument at this time is that we are in a recession. Those who understand that recession refers to negative real GDP growth in an economy for two or more consecutive quarters will appreciate that if there is any time that salaries and allowances should be promptly paid, it is now. Why? Because recession means that there is a lull in economic activities. It is a period of massive decline in demand for goods and services. It is a time that people are unable to buy the things that they used to buy. Because demand is weak, production will reduce accordingly. This is understandable because production does not happen in isolation. Whatever is produced has a purpose: to meet demand. When production goes down, it also follows that companies will reduce their staff strength and in extreme cases close down to avoid prolonged loses. Other actors in the production process, including vendors and suppliers will be affected, thereby reinforcing more layoffs and shutdowns. So, what is the solution to this problem? Of course, we can adopt the lazy option, which is throw our hands in the air and blame it on recession. This option would further weaken demand, reduce supply and engender further shut-downs and unemployment.

Another option is to take the bull by the horn and find a way to break the vicious cycle. Where else to break the cycle from than from the demand side, after all, it is weak demand that led to economic slowdown. This action is called “stimulating demand” in economic parlance. You can stimulate demand by putting more money in the hands of people to encourage them to consume more goods and services in the economy. I must at this juncture, admit that there are circumstances where more money does not lead to more demand. Under this situation, people would rather save than consume and therefore defeat the purpose of putting money in their hands. That, however, happens when the money ends up in the wrong hands. So demand stimulation exercises are targeted at those who would spend rather than save. These are usually workers. They are also targeted at people who would consume locally made goods, otherwise, the effect of the spending would be felt in the country where the goods are made. The class of people that fit in here, are also workers. I am also aware that the level of productive activities in the economy is limited. However, effective demand would necessitate amongst other things, more productive activities, ceteris paribus.
An area that not a lot of people have paid attention to is the effect of non-payment of salaries on banks that have extended “Salad” to the workers. Some banks created credit products called Salary Advance [(Salad), nothing to do with food], for workers. When the salaries are not regular, such obligations cannot be promptly serviced. Even when such payments are received in due course, since governments don't pay interest on the past due salaries, the workers will either be forced to look elsewhere to service the loans or leave bad loans behind for no fault of theirs. My sense is that these kind of facilities may constitute a sizable chunk of bad loans that our banks are carrying in their books at the moment.
This takes me to the issue of cash transfers. The Federal government announced recently that it has started paying the N5, 000 monthly allowance to the poorest of the poor amongst us. There has been some concerns as to how the beneficiaries were selected, why the payment did not start in all the states at the same time etc. For what it is worth, I believe this is a step in the right direction and the Federal government deserves commendation. Cash transfer, as it is sometimes called has worked elsewhere. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, FDR (1882-1945) was the Great Depression and World War II president of the US between 1933 and 1945. In his “new deal” policy to get around the effects of depression on the economy, his major policy thrust was to put money in the hands of the populace, a policy that is sometimes referred to as “priming the pump” in order to stimulate the economy. He started by ensuring that workers were not only paid, but very promptly. He created jobs and made provisions for those who were not employed to be paid, through his Federal Emergency Relief Administration (FERA). He created the Civilian Conservation Corp (CCC) which immediately engaged 300,000 Americans in over 1200 camps to plant trees, build bridges and clean beaches and roads for which they were handsomely paid. He supported agriculture and rural communities culminating in the massive electrification of most of rural America. FDR used the instrumentality of government to support the resuscitation of industry, having got congress to pass the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA). Most of the ailing businesses got support from government. These largely worked until FDR yielded to political pressure to balance the budget and reduce government spending which took away all the gains he earlier made in massive rollout of jobs and relief incentives. The advent of the Second World War, however, coupled with the reinstatement of deficit spending took the US out of recession in 1945, the same the same year FDR died. Recovery was made possible because the country had invested in supporting agriculture and industry which provided the backbone for the war economy.

It is my opinion that governments at all levels should ensure that workers are paid and very promptly too. There are a few states who understand this and have been dutiful in payment of salaries and I must acknowledge them in this piece. But a large majority are still culprits. I expect that someone would ask me where the money to pay workers is going to come from. In my response, I will ask them where all the money they spend comes from? How have they prioritized their expenditure? In fact, there can't be a better answer than the one given by Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the former governor of Edo State sometime in 2015. Oshiomhole had chastised his colleagues who were owing salaries arguing that positing that states could not pay salaries was akin to saying that there was no food for the “Oga” because the houseboy had eaten. He insisted that salaries and allowances of workers pale into insignificance when compared with other expenses run by governments. In his own words, some governors were still living very expensive and ostentatious lifestyles including flying private jets when salaries are not being paid. He concluded that it is a criminal breach of contract to owe workers as salaries are part of a contract between the government and its workers. I must commend the Comrade Governor for increasing minimum wage for workers in Edo State from N18, 000 to N25, 000, before he left office.
It is also my contention that with proper planning, salaries should not be too difficult to pay. With the payment of salaries, employers can rightly demand commensurate productivity from employees. Employers would be in a position to evaluate their staff with a view to streamlining their workforce, keeping only those that can guarantee optimum productivity and dispensing with those who do not have the required competence to fit into the more rigorous demand of a more efficient and paying environment. Having said this, I also believe that there is nothing wrong with workers negotiating better pay. After all, there is a saying that “he who pays peanuts, gets monkeys”. It is in this light, that I do not object to labour’s demand for an enhanced minimum wage. This is subject to the understanding that to whom much is given, much is expected. The current minimum wage of N18, 000 came into effect over ten years ago. Given incessant inflationary and exchange rate realities, it is only logical that the minimum wage be adjusted periodically to ensure it remains realistic. These actions would not only support a more energetic workforce, but would also contribute positively towards exiting recession. This is by way of encouraging governments at all levels to be more favourably disposed towards labour’s demands as it also offers governments the latitude to make its own demands on labour. I am by this medium intervening in the anticipated breakdown that is usually associated with employer /employee negotiations, by appealing to each side to be reasonable to avoid the kind of dialogue that is reported below where an employee had not only gone to his boss to ask for a pay raise, but a day off. The boss retorted thus:

“There are 365 days this year. There are 52 weeks per year in which you already have 2 days weekend off per week, leaving 261 days available for work. Since you spend 16 hours each day away from work, you have used up 170 days, leaving only 91 days available. You spend 30 minutes each day on coffee break. That accounts for 23 days each year, leaving only 68 days available. With a one hour lunch period each day, you have used up another 46 days, leaving only 22 days available for work. You normally spend 2 days per year on sick leave. This leaves you only 20 days available for work. We are off for 5 holidays per year, so your available working time is down to 15 days. We generously give you 14 days vacation per year which leaves only one day available for work. Are you really sure you want to take the only day left off and are you convinced we need to pay more for not working at all?” Your guess should be as good as mine as to how this negotiation ended.
Finally, President Buhari, in sharing the Paris Club refunds to states, advised State governors to ensure that they pay salaries with the refunds. Even though some state governments have decided to harken to the President’s advice in breach, it is instructive and encouraging that the President appreciates the impact of salary payments on recession, while some other leaders don't.
So, Your Excellencies, the owing governors, let me reassure you that it makes perfect economic sense to pay salaries in a recession. We, the people, are therefore waiting for our “alert”, so we can join Korede Bello in chorusing “God win”.

Politics › Otti Takes DMO To The Cleaners With A Follow Up Piece by comradefery(op): 11:07am On Dec 12, 2016*

Haba DMO, Except If Your Own Figures Are Wrong
December 12, 2016152628

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI , Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com
OUTSIDE THE BOX

By Alex Otti; alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

“If you disperse people from the arena where opinions are expressed, they only go to converge at the cellar where revolutions are born” Old Sage

A

s a rule, I do not join issues with my readers. The reason is because as a democrat, I believe that everyone is entitled to his own views and opinion. Besides, being human, I can be wrong sometimes and would appreciate to be corrected. I do not believe in muscling my way through debates. I am therefore, quite comfortable with people disagreeing with me. I actually encourage it because it is only when ideas contend with one another that superior solutions can emerge.

In response to my last piece on the $30 billion loan proposition by the federal government, the Debt Management Office (DMO) took up paid adverts in many national dailies titled “Dangerous Misinformation by Mr. Alex Otti: Re: $30 billion Loan: Are You For Real?”

If not for the obvious misrepresentation of facts by the DMO in the rejoinder, I would not have responded. The response became more compelling because in accusing me of misinforming readers, DMO made misleading statements about the debt stock of the country. It is more interesting because I was quoting DMO in my numbers and I duly acknowledged it as my source. I had said that “According to the Debt Management Office, DMO, Nigeria has external borrowing of $11.26b as at the end of June 2016”. I then went ahead to add the above number to $12.71 billion being the dollar component of the domestic debt of the 36 states of the federation to arrive at total dollar debt stock of circa $24 billion. The next stage was to recognise the domestic dollar-denominated debt component of $37.48 billion outstanding against the federal government, thus bringing the grand total dollar debt to about $62 billion.

DMO on the other hand had argued thus, “It is completely false to state that external debt of states…was USD12.71billion. The DMO has transparently published the total external debt of the federal government, states and the FCT….which was $11.26b. For emphasis, the published external debt belongs to not only the FGN, but also to the states. Accordingly, Mr. Otti’s addition of USD12.71b and $11.26b to get $24b is a strange and speculative arithmetic”

Unfortunately, these numbers came from the DMO itself, www.dmo.gov.ng, and they remained on that website as at the time of going to press. Where DMO got it wrong was that it misinterpreted my reference to the debt stock of states as external. I had rightly acknowledged the $11.26 billion as external debt. I then proceeded to add the dollar component of the states’ domestic debts which are actually denominated in dollars to get $24 billion. Finally, I added the federal government’s domestic debt which is also denominated in dollars to get the total dollar debt of about $62 billion. There is no denying the fact that both the external debt and the dollar denominated domestic debt will all be paid back in foreign currency. Even if for any reason, the domestic creditors become so nice and want to receive their payments in naira, it would be strange if they will also give concession on exchange rate. So, for clarity, I restate that based on the numbers from DMO, we have debts of about $62 billion hanging around our neck which are actually denominated in foreign currency. Should we concede that the only debt repayable is the external debt component of $11.26 billion thereby getting a complete write-off of the entire domestic foreign currency debt of over $50 billion, I do not see how that would significantly change the argument I made in the write up.

On the issue of floating rates, the DMO once again misunderstood my point. I had acknowledged that the DG of DMO had said that the rates will be around 1.5% pa to which I added, “but I am certain he was referring to concessional rates from multilateral agencies”. It is therefore incorrect to insinuate that I had indicated that multilateral debts are normally priced at floating rates. In fact, my reference to floating rates and LIBOR was on the Eurobond. Again, talking about current yields on Eurobond, DMO again missed my point. My reference to the yields that our current bonds of 2011 and 2013 are commanding in the secondary market was not to show that it was impacting negatively on our economy as claimed in the response. DMO’s comment that “the movements of their yields in the secondary market have nothing to do with Nigeria’s debt service obligation” is therefore superfluous. At least, I should know how this market works. What was apparently lost on the DMO was that I had said that given the high yield of the existing bonds, fresh issues would attract higher rates. This is sensible as the yield is a pointer to the rating of fresh issues. I do not expect that there would be disagreement on the fact that our circumstances and fundamentals have worsened since the last Eurobond issue and these would be taken into consideration in pricing fresh issues.

The DMO also took me up on the diversification of foreign exchange earnings. It had this to say: “Unfortunately, even where Mr. Otti managed to state something true, instead of concocted or speculative, he failed to move to the next logical level. For example, he said ‘We need to diversify our foreign exchange earning capacity from the challenged oil to boost our foreign exchange revenue base’ But: he failed to say how you can diversify the forex base without addressing the huge infrastructure deficit to ensure higher productivity and competitiveness, he did not say how the huge infrastructure deficit will be funded, he did not say how big the required investment is and how much of this must come from the public and private sectors, respectively; he did not say where the government will get enough revenue to provide its share of the required investment’.”

When I read the tirade above, I jokingly asked: “If the DMO wants me to answer all these, what will it be doing?” On a serious note, I had written extensively on most of the questions posed by the DMO in my previous interventions and would encourage the DMO to read them. In my columns of September 12 and September 29, 2016, on the Diversification of the Economy, I had argued that while we needed to diversify from being a mono product economy, we needed to be wary of promoting primary products of agriculture and solid minerals. My argument was that we should deliberately encourage value addition in forms of processing, packaging, storage and exports of these commodities. The kernel of the debate was that commodities are susceptible to the same fate as oil, even to a larger degree, given that oil producing countries have OPEC to weigh in to protect prices. I concluded by arguing that we should promote education, research and development, innovation, skills, knowledge, science and technology, entrepreneurship and intellectual property as the ruling economies of the world are knowledge economies and not “luggage economies” a la Segun Adeniyi.

On infrastructure, I had been an unrepentant apostle of government spending massively to provide infrastructure for industrial production and good quality of life for the populace. I had argued in my two-part series “Chop Your Money 1&2” published on April 25, and May 9, 2016 respectively and another write-up titled “When and How to Spend the Money You Do Not have”, published on May 23, 2016, that we must spend a lot of money to deal with the present infrastructural decay. I had contended that it was more useful to spend our money on building roads, railways, refineries, power, hospitals and schools than save money in foreign bank accounts for which we do not get so much as interest, but also lose the benefits of having the much required infrastructure in place. Even in the write-up in contention, if DMO had read through properly, it would have noticed that I had answered the “how big” question thus, “According to the IMF, Nigeria needs to spend no less than $140b in the next decade to bridge the infrastructure gap in the country” Given this position, no one can sustain the accusation that I did not say how big the required investment is.

The DMO ends with a rather curious credit to itself for the healthy and welcome debate on the borrowing plan of government because according to it, it ‘democratised’ public debt knowledge. Given the age of the agency, one can understand that it was not there when a similar debate was called by the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida in the mid 80s as it wanted to access the IMF loan. The heated debate ended with the government throwing out the move to take the loan. I strongly believe that it would serve the government positively to encourage honest debate to enable it appreciate the opinion of Nigerians on this loan. It should not be hijacked by any government agency, not even the DMO.

It is interesting that in spite of the invectives, the DMO ended up attacking tangential comments and left untouched, the fundamental arguments made in my write-up. In my opinion, the issues to address would include how the $30 billion request was derived. Yes, we need several times that number to address our infrastructure deficit, but most lenders must pay attention not just to what the borrower needs, but his capacity to pay back. Even if the loan was interest-free one cannot wish away the capacity to repay. I had also contended that any loans we would take must be within an overall expenditure framework. Luckily, we have the MTEF/FSP (2017-2019) approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC), upon which I relied to do my analysis. On the basis of the analysis, I arrived at numbers ranging from a conservative $10.5 billion, through a moderate $12.9 billion to an aggressive $14.52 billion, as the additional external debt we can take, given the assumptions of the framework itself. I actually expected that the DMO would fault my analysis on the basis that it was too aggressive. DMO had set a new debt template of 60:40 internal to external ratio to encourage a private sector driven economy. My analyses assumed a 50:50 ratio arising from the numbers I picked from the 2016 budget. If I applied the new template set by the DMO, the numbers would reduce to a range of $9.45 billion to a maximum new borrowing of $13.01 billion.

All said and done, I think we need to take another look at the framework, the amount we want to borrow, our capacity to pay back and the other issues that have been raised here and elsewhere. The government can only be the winner when things are done properly. Government agencies will also do well to encourage those who have some suggestions to make towards any issue of national importance, as no one has monopoly of knowledge. Finally, we must understand that the message is always more important than the messenger.

Permit me to use this opportunity to wish my readers, the DMO included, a merry Christmas and a happy New Year all in advance.

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Politics › Yet Another Masterpiece From Dr. Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 6:31am On Nov 29, 2016

$30 Billion Loan: Are You For Real?
November 28, 2016204760

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI , Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com
OUTSIDE THE BOX

By Alex Otti; alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

“I, however, place the economy among the first and most important of virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared” Thomas Jefferson

I have been struggling to come to terms with the request of the presidency to borrow $30 billion, to no avail. I have tried to compute the numbers from available statistics with limited luck. I then decided to wait for clarifications or better still, a correction of the error by the authors, but still, no dice. I am sure I may be missing something somewhere.

Let me start by clarifying my position on borrowing, lest I be misunderstood. Those who have followed my views about the recession will agree that my preferred approach to dealing with the problem is stimulation of the economy. This is the approach that supports increased government expenditure, lowering of taxes and increasing consumer spending as a way of improving production and creating jobs. Some people refer to it as “spending our way out of recession”.

For stimulation to happen, there must be external funding. One of the most important sources is borrowing. Borrowing could be domestic or foreign. So in principle, I am not against borrowing in a period of recession. However, a lot of issues must be addressed before we can safely talk of borrowing. According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria has external borrowing of $11.26 billion as at the end of June 2016. If you add that to the foreign debt stock of the 36 states of $12.71 billion, you end up with a total foreign dollar debt stock of circa $24 billion. Meanwhile, there is also some domestic dollar-denominated debt component of $48.74 billion outstanding against the federal government, bringing the total dollar debt to about $62 billion.

Details available on the current request indicate that the loan is to be broken down into projects and programmes loan, $11.274 billion; Special National Infrastructure Projects, $10.68 billion; Eurobonds, $4.5 billion; and federal government Budget Support, $3.5 billion.

Specifically, 61.2% of the proposed loan or $18.34 billion would go towards infrastructure projects comprising the Mambila hydro-electric power plant – $4.8 billion; railway modernisation coastal project (Calabar-Port Harcourt-Onne Deep Seaport segment) – $3.5 billion; Abuja mass rail transit project – $1.6 billion; Lagos-Kano railway modernisation project (Lagos-Ibadan segment double track) – $1.3 billion; Lagos-Kano railway modernisation project (Kano-Kaduna segment double track) – $1.1 billion; and others – $6 billion.

There is no doubt that we require to spend heavily to solve the problem of infrastructural decay in the country. A lot of money needs to be spent on power if we have to jump start production and ensure energy sufficiency for the take-off of an industrial and technologically-driven economy. We should have done this a long time. But since it has not been done, the only option we have is to do so now as no amount of whining and bellyaching will cure it. The same is true of our roads rails, health care delivery and education. According to the IMF, Nigeria needs to spend no less than $140 billion in the next decade to bridge the infrastructure gap in the country. That means that beyond the $30 billion, we will still need to source another $100 billion. So, without bringing the recession discussion into the equation, there is little doubt that we require a lot of money to take this economy out of the woods. However, most people have a lot of concerns on the recent move by the federal government no matter how desirable it may appear. I shall discuss them under the following headings:

PHILOSOPHY AND STRATEGY

A lot of people will agree that the managers of the economy are yet to come up with an articulate and coordinated philosophy for managing this economy that is challenged by both recession and inflation. A clear strategy will define the steps government would take and point out how it intends to attain its defined goals, the time frame and what happens thereafter. A blue print will also help in measurement and evaluation. Other than the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) of the government which is at best very hazy, I am yet to see a clear planning document under whose framework, this borrowing is supposed to come. Specifically, the 2016 budget provided for a deficit of N2.2 trillion out of which N1.84 trillion is supposed to be borrowed. The budget makes provision for N984 billion to be raised from the domestic market while the balance of N900 billion was to be borrowed from the international market. The budget was based on the exchange rate assumption of N197 to the dollar. This means that the external loan for 2016 would be about $4.56 billion. Given that the MTEF/FSP (2017-2019) projects budget deficits of N2.7 trillion, N2.5 trillion, and N1.7 trillion for 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, with average exchange rate of N290/$, I have taken the liberty to work backwards to determine projected foreign borrowing for the years in question. Extrapolating from the 2016 numbers, it would be safe to assume that 84% of the deficits would be funded by debt out of which 50% would be foreign. Projected foreign borrowing would be $3.9 billion for 2017, $3.6 billion for 2018 and $2.46 billion for 2019. When you sum up the figures for the four years, the total foreign borrowing based on government’s own numbers should not be more than $14.52 billion. If one wanted to be more realistic in applying the current official exchange rate of N305 to the dollar to the foreign borrowing of N900 billion for this year, then the total figure will reduce by $1.61 billion to $12.91 billion. Given that 2019 is the terminal date of this administration, it would also be safe to back out the figures for 2019. The total loan this administration can take would therefore be in the region of $10.5 billion. In the light of all these analyses, the government needs to explain how it came by the humongous $29.96 billion foreign borrowing over a period of two or three years.

SOURCES AND COST OF BORROWING

There also needs to be some clarity on where the loans are coming from. Government had indicated that five multilateral institutions namely, the World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB), Japan International Co-operation Agency (JICA), Islamic Development Bank and China Exim Bank, are expected to provide most of the loan. Also, some $4.5 billion is to be sourced from the issuance of Eurobond. This is where the danger lies. Multilateral and bilateral loans are always cheaper than commercial loans. Even the fiscal responsibility act requires that governments should focus on concessional loans, from multilateral sources rather than the more expensive commercial sources like the Eurobond. In my previous life, I had led a bank to issue a five-year Eurobond whose process was not only cumbersome but pricing was very steep. Given our situation, I can say without fear of contradiction that we cannot access this market at any rate lower than double digits. Dr. Abraham Nwankwo of the DMO had talked of an average rate of 1.5%pa, but I am certain he was referring to concessional rates from multilateral agencies. Besides, rates in this market are normally floating and indexed to the London Interbank offer rate (LIBOR) just like the $1.5 billion Eurobond component of our existing outstanding debt stock whose yield is around 7% at the moment. A fresh issue would definitely be much more expensive. I will also be surprised if the multilateral organisations that have indicated interest in lending to us would not accompany the loan with “conditionalities” some of them may hurt our attempt at economic recovery.

USES OF THE BORROWING

While we are not clear about how this loan would be disbursed, we are compelled to point out that in a recession, any expenditure that happens outside the local economy does not stimulate the economy. The funds would end up stimulating the economy where the bulk of the money is spent. So if we are relying on a foreign country to build the infrastructure for which we are borrowing, the multiplier and the stimulus effects would not be felt in Nigeria but in that foreign country. Of particular concern is the outcry by some sections of the country that they were excluded from the proposed projects which should not be contemplated as the debt will be paid by all of us.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MANAGEMENT POLICY

Because this loan is denominated in foreign currency, we need to think through how it would be affected by the present foreign exchange policy. We still run a managed foreign exchange policy based on allocation. The exchange rate is fixed by the CBN at levels below market. The difference between the CBN rate and the real market rate is in excess of N150 to the dollar. That is why people now pay premium to get allocation because CBN is unable to meet all requests at the subsidised rates. Assuming we are able to borrow the money, at what rate would it be exchanged? This is necessary because while we can afford to sell our oil money at subsidised rates, I don’t know that we will be willing to sell borrowed funds that way. To bring it further home, if we sold the entire funds at current CBN rate, we would be losing over N4.3 trillion with that singular action. The other issue is that this money would have to be paid back someday. At what rate is it going to be paid back? Assuming we exchanged at the current rate, we must also be able to exchange our naira to dollar as we must pay back dollars with interest. Except if we are sure that we will continue to generate enough foreign exchange for the repayment, we may be walking into a transaction fraught with unpredictable exchange rate risk which may ruin the economics of the loan. Investing in infrastructure is the best thing we can do for this country at this time. But we also know that most investments in infrastructure are social in nature and do not yield that much money to pay back loans with interest. Even where they do, they will yield local currency and not dollars.

SUSTAINABILITY

This refers to the ability of the country to service the loan without impacting negatively on other important activities. In its current Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), the DMO had this to say: “The results of the 2016 DSA showed that for the first time since the exit from the Paris and London clubs of creditors in 2005 and 2006, Nigeria’s debt position experienced some deterioration and slipped from a Low-risk of debt distress to a medium-risk of debt distress. Although the level of debt stock is still appreciably low relative to the country’s aggregate output (GDP), the debt portfolio remains mostly vulnerable to the various shocks associated with revenue, exports and substantial currency devaluation. This meant that, as in the previous DSA, while the GDP-related indicators appear normal, as they remained below their respective thresholds, the revenue-based indicators were mostly sensitive to the revenue shocks”. Note that this analysis predates the current request of $30 billion. To buttress the point made by the DMO, it is useful to highlight that in the current budget, about 27% of government expenditure is earmarked for debt service. We do not have capacity to service the new borrowing. We need to diversify our foreign exchange earning capacity from the challenged oil to boost our foreign exchange revenue base.

COMMUNICATION

In a democracy, there is need to communicate effectively and get the buy in and opinion of the populace before major decisions are made. It is easy to dismiss this comment by arguing that most people do not have the required knowledge to understand a complex issue like debt. However, we must know that opinion is moulded by those who know. If those who know have not been convinced, how would anyone expect that the rest of the people will buy it? I strongly believe that if an attempt had been made to socialise this with the people, someone would have realised that something is simply not adding up and probably returned it to sender.

All told, I believe that the government still needs to borrow to stimulate the economy. How much the government needs to borrow, where it needs to borrow from, for how long and the cost of the borrowing are details that require more serious work than has been done so far. I will recommend that we go back to the drawing board and diligently craft an integrated economic framework that will articulate all that is required to move this nation out the present economic doldrums. It is a lot of work. Very serious work, but it has to be done in a comprehensive manner and the earlier, the better.

Politics › Mr. President, You Do Need An Economic Team by comradefery(op): 12:00pm On Oct 18, 2016

Mr. President, You Do Need an Economic Team
October 18, 201652835
OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI , Email: alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

That we are facing challenges with the economy is no longer news. Oil prices have remained low and around $50 per barrel in the last couple of months. This situation is exacerbated by the drop in crude export capacity from about 2.2m barrels of crude per day to less than 1.7m barrels owing to the activities of militants in the Niger Delta. Exchange rates have refused to come under control as N500 per dollar stares us in the face. Recall that not too long ago, it was less than N200 per dollar. Inflation rate is chasing 20 per cent from single digits in not too distant past. Youth unemployment is now over 24 per cent, though some analysts believe the figure is much higher. Industry capacity utilisation is at its lowest ebb. GDP has continued to decline leaving leadership with no option than to announce officially, that we are in a recession. These are therefore not normal times. In normal times, the economy must be positioned at the front burner of government activities.

Previous governments have underscored the importance of the economy by assembling experts and people who operate at very important sectors of the economy as an economic team to brainstorm and support government in maintaining optimum economic indices for the country. I would not give all the credit of successes recorded in the past to them, but I must acknowledge the work they did in stabilising the economy. It is important to note that besides putting sound economic policies in place, economic stability has a lot to do with confidence. Today, we talk about the activities of speculators as if someone brought them from outer space to attack the naira or is it dollar? The reality is that everyone can be a speculator. The only way to tame their activities is for them to have confidence that sound policies would continue to be implemented to protect their money.

Once their confidence “shakes or blinks”, they would act the way a rational being would. They would rather hold currencies that they don’t expect their value to depreciate significantly in the short to medium term. Foreign investors as well will hold off until some degree of stability is restored in the financial system. Confidence can be reinforced by the government having people who the market perceives to be sound, skilled, and experienced in its decision making process, particularly in the economic space. Today, other than the Minister of Finance, I am not sure there is any other economist on the president’s team. Considering that the subject matter of economics confuses a lot of people and even economists hardly agree on most major issues, the more of them you have, the better for the system, subject to those economists being sound and up to date. It is in this light that I advocate an economic management team for the president.

Before I continue, I must first of all, disqualify myself. I will not be part of the president’s economic team, if he agrees to constitute one. I hereby apply NOT to be considered for appointment and my reasons are simple. Even though I read Economics, because I have decided to comment on this matter, I have deliberately put myself in a position of conflict and therefore, hold myself disqualified from being a beneficiary of the outcome, if it turns out positive. It becomes very necessary in these days when different conspiracy interpretations are given to otherwise altruistic actions that I clarify my intentions. I will explain this with a story of what a former president of this country shared with a friend of mine a few years ago. He had visited to discuss a few matters with him. Midway into the discussion, he interjected with a remark that shot like a bolt from the blues. “Nigerians are very interesting people. Anytime they come to you with suggestions that look credible, there are always some hidden agenda. A few otherwise respectable people had visited me in the last couple of days to discuss the vacancy in so so institution. They will make a lot of sensible argument about the need to appoint a very well qualified and competent person for that role. When I enquire of an example of the person they had in mind, they would not only present themselves, they would hand me their already prepared CVs. That leaves me wondering where decency and selflessness have gone to”. It is in that light that I need to demonstrate that my “selflessness” has not taken flight.
Secondly, by the time I am through, I would make recommendations of more qualified, more accomplished, more experienced and better economists than myself who would add more value to the administration than I will be able to do. So, why would I want the president to settle for second 11, when he can get first 11? And I say this with all sense of responsibility. Some of them are actually people we learn from. Some have even had course to intervene publicly in the recent times. Where I come from, there is a saying that it is only a fool that does not recognise someone who is greater than him.

The third reason is that there is nothing I want to tell the president that I cannot say on my fortnightly column, ‘Outside the Box’, and I am told by those who have access to the president that he reads everything we write. I hope this information is correct. If it is, I will encourage the president to keep it up. If not, I will encourage him to start reading because there is a lot to learn from reading. I will continue to use this medium to make my own intervention. I am of the view that those who have something to say but don’t have my kind of platform are better appointed than those of us who you will hear from anyway, whether you like us or hate us.

A lot of times, leaders are unable to benefit from genuine advice from their subordinates and appointees for a whole lot of reasons ranging from “respect” through fear to culture. First, we respect age a lot in this part of the globe. If the boss is the older person, there is a tendency to genuflect and say nothing that may come out as rude to him. Our president at 74 is much older than virtually all the members of his cabinet. I can therefore understand if his cabinet members are unable to tell him things the way they are. The second point is that he is the president and an executive one at that. He had been president (Head of State) some 32 years ago when the present minister of finance and some others in the cabinet were just teenagers. One can understand the generation-gap coupled with the enormous powers. Because of the too much power around the president, people around him would not want to make it into his bad books. One president turned on the heat on a governor sometime ago and was almost crushing him.
A few of the governor’s friends went to plead on his behalf. The president roared that he had not started dealing with the then governor as he had not even used 20 per cent of his powers. That speaks of the enormous powers presidents command. In like manner, a governor who served at the federal level before winning elections in 2015 shared his experience with a mutual friend. He said he had come to realise why governors failed. He was shocked that everything he said or did was right. Sometimes, he decided to say the wrong thing in a bid to do a reality check. All commissioners and senior appointees without exception, applauded him as being the smartest thing they had heard. He would then say something diametrically opposed to the earlier statement and the same people would find reason to give an even louder applause.
Comparing this experience with his sojourn at the centre, he found that there was a world of difference. At the federal level, he couldn’t hire and fire anyone, but at the state, everyone from his deputy down served at his pleasure. So, who says it is not time to look again at this “democracy” that we “photocopied” from the US to ensure that it is serving our purposes. The governor took a decision: he would be the last to speak at meetings to ensure against the popular phrase, “just like His Excellency has said”. It was only then that his people started speaking out.

This attitude is not peculiar to the public sector. Sucking up, as it is often called, also exists, even if to a lesser extent, in the private sector. In my early years in banking, I had this general manager who knew very little about his job but was extremely loyal to the CEO who he had worked with most of his banking career. His lack of capacity was very visible in the bank. To the surprise of everyone, the CEO who was a major owner of the bank bought another bank that was ailing at that time and seconded the general manager to the new bank as CEO. Before every meeting with his team, he would go for a briefing with his boss. At management meetings in the new bank, he would address his team thus, “as the boss has directed…” Someone had to always give him a nudge to remind him that he was the boss in the new place. Any wonder why both banks have since collapsed?
President Muhammadu Buhari has left not a few people in no doubt that he is not a private sector apologist. In fact, his comment about the reason he doesn’t want to set up an economic team or why he thinks he doesn’t need one is very instructive. He was quoted to have insisted that the private sector would normally make recommendations that would serve its interest. While I cannot controvert the president on this, I wonder what is wrong with it. It has been demonstrated that the kind of economy we run works, not out of the benevolence of the butcher or baker, but out of their self-interest. The only thing government should not lose sight of is its duty of regulation. Besides, no one is advocating a ‘private-sector-only’ economic team. Others like academics, labour and government officials must be part of the team.
Like we had argued in the past, economics is a very complex subject that requires very complex thinking. Most economists do not have agreement on different issues in the field as I had stated earlier. Having a forum to ventilate divergent thoughts and thoroughly synthesise all possible models and scenarios as it relates to our present and future challenges can only be to the benefit of this government. Most importantly, the president reserves the right to discountenance any advice that he does not agree with, but he should not deny himself the opportunity to be advised.
Again, it is said that one does not give what one does not have. We do have a lot of competent people who would put their wealth of experience, training and skills at the disposal of the government. I wonder what the president stands to lose. I would expect that this team like others would neither be employed nor paid by government to ensure its independence.
I have taken liberty to draw up a list, though not exhaustive, of the kind of people that the president needs to approach for membership of the proposed team which I will send to him confidentially since I do not have their permission to publish their names. The government may also wish to choose some people from the private sector and join the trio of Minister of Finance, Minister of National Planning and Minister of Trade and Industries and of course, the CBN Governor with the vice-president presiding.
Finally, if truly Mr. President has a problem with the nomenclature, economic team, then we can call it any other name. Anyhow, I believe that the president needs a crack team of economists, technocrats and experts to assist him manage our very challenged economy. He actually needs this team quickly. He needs it yesterday.

Politics › Abia Lga Elections And The Failure Of Leadership by comradefery(op): 8:17am On Oct 07, 2016

ABIA LGA ELECTIONS AND THE FAILURE OF LEADERSHIP

For some time now I have restrained myself from writing or posting any comments on social media about the poor governance or the deplorable state of affairs in Abia State. The reason being, not so much about not having anything to say but more to adhering to the time tested adage, ‘if you don’t have anything nice to say about someone, just keep your mouth shut’. In the months before and after the 2015 elections, I and many others did our best to point out the seeming incompetence, unpreparedness, and inexperience of the PDP Gubernatorial flag bearer, Dr Okezie Ikpeazu, and may I add Ph.D, so as not to offend his supporters who for some reason see a doctorate degree as being synonymous with intelligence and ability as if anyone who is not so academically accomplished is unworthy of their respect and devoid of intellect and ability. However as the eventual results showed, no doubt made possible by rigging the Abia people are now reaping the consequences of that fateful election.

So recently when I heard about the forthcoming Abia Local Government elections, I decided that I will have to speak up again, disregard the above stated adage and remind the Abia people that this is one election that will afford them the opportunity to correct the mistakes made in the 2015 elections. In so doing, the primary purpose of this essay is to raise the consciousness of the Abia people by reminding them of their present hardship under the Ikpeazu administration and to instill in them a sense of awareness, of urgency and of responsibility to themselves, their children, their communities and to posterity. My goal amongst others is also to make them aware of the importance of setting the foundation for the 2019 elections by ensuring the victory and control of a significant number of the Local Government Councils in recognition of the fact that the PDP in the last elections turned every Local Government Council into a center for election rigging, whereby all Transition local Government Chairmen facilitated and supervised the rigging exercise that occurred.

Again having witnessed the unprecedented show of incompetence, lack of vision, direction and mediocrity of the Abia Governor in the last 15 months, not to mention the complete squandering of the state resources in fighting numerous court cases associated with his election, I came to realize that my silence was no longer golden. For all those who voted or enabled the election of this clown, I venture to ask them this question, how is life treating you or as some will say, ‘How market”? I am sure they must all be experiencing a buyer’s remorse, as I no longer see or read their flowing accolades on social media on how Dr Ikpeazu is god- sent and how he is their Moses who will lead them to the promised land. Unfortunately to their dismay, this Moses has left them stranded in the middle of the Nile. Salaries have not been paid for several months, neither have pensions. The road construction in Aba which was flagged off with unprecedented fanfare and publicity have been grounded, as the rains have rendered most of them impassable. Abia schools and hospitals are still ill-equipped and in a state of disrepair. Umuahia, the state capital still looks like a ghetto, worse than a war- torn city in Afghanistan or a shanty town reminiscent of apartheid South Africa. Yet this Supreme Court Governor despite all his aforementioned leadership and administrative failings is fighting hard to hang on to power. A quest motivated more by greed and lust for power than the desire to serve.

A prominent writer once wrote, “History does not repeat itself but rather it rhymes”.. As we can see, the methods, style and policy directions of this administration rhymes with that of its predecessor. Dr Ikpeazu, Ph.d, it would appear seems to have turned out to be a complete clone of his erstwhile Godfather, Ochendo. For a man who promised heaven on earth for the Abia people, shouldhe win, he does not seem to be sweating his failure to keep any of his promises because they were not borne out of any inherent principles or firmly held convictions. The incontrovertible truth is that the man has no philosophy, just an all -consuming need to be Governor. In a sense he’s a fun-house mirror of the inconstancy, vanity and insecurity found in most politicians. The idea of intrinsic merit, competence and ability is alien to him. His blindness to his people’s suffering and the economic hardship they are going through is beyond the pale, unconscionable and scary. His indifference and probable awareness of it is scarier still. This is a man who has failed woefully in leadership, empathy, integrity and intelligent test and yet still fighting to stay in power.
While I commend him for even scheduling the Local Government elections yet to be held, I am still suspicious of his real intentions, since his predecessor for 8 years refused to schedule one. This makes me wonder how far they’ve gone in their preparation to rig it. Be that as it may, the reality is that if the Abia people truly desire change, it must start with the forthcoming LGA elections. However, to effect this change, the APGA party must be ready to present itself as the vehicle for change by choosing credible and untainted candidates to run on the party’s platform. It is also an opportunity for the party to remedy the mistakes made in the 2015 State Assembly elections, when candidates who were victorious under the coat tails of Dr, Alex Otti and APGA turned out to be toothless puppies and compliant lap dogs in the State House Of Assembly, more concerned with their personal financial gratification than fighting for the needs of their constituents. It is also an opportunity for APGA to adequately and rigorously prepare for the 2019 elections by registering more members, identifying who they are, where they live, their contact phone numbers and how to get them out to vote in this and subsequent elections. This is an opportunity for the party to build up a voters list, allocate them into voting precincts, appoint precinct captains and get them to organize among themselves, hold regular precinct meetings, with the precinct captains reporting to the Party headquarters in Umuahia. With this, it is easy at the appropriate time to implement a (GOTV) or get out the vote operation.
APGA must embark on a sustained effort to remind Abia voters and the Abia people of their poor living conditions and the need for them to vent their frustrations, resentment, despair, regret and disillusion on the PDP by coming out to vote. This is important because the certainty of their voting is not a given and cannot be taken for granted that it will happen. Studies have shown that even in advanced economies and political systems, voters have been found to lose confidence in their leaders and voting enthusiasm due to the frustration resulting from failed promises and poor living standards. They say to themselves, why do I have to vote when I see no changes in my life after my last vote? They convince themselves or get resigned to the belief that, whether they vote or not, the outcome will be the same and nothing in their lives will change, so why bother. Such people must be motivated and informed that, not voting is not an option, because if they fail to come out and vote, the same politicians they resent will continue to stay in power and nothing will change.

As the Local Government election date draws near, I urge that those who intend to contest under the APGA party must ensure that they are men and women of means, ability, vision, and intellect. Individuals who command the respect of their communities. People who are seen as the embodiment of virtue, honesty and transparency in both their personal and public lives. Candidates who are capable of not only harnessing the dividends of democracy and prosperity but also the ability to articulate the needs and aspirations of the people who voted them into office. This Local Government election must be seen as a test run for 2019 and must not be taken lightly with mistakes made in the 2015 elections rectified and corrected whether Dr, Alex Otti runs again or not. Though we all hope he does as we await the verdict of the Supreme Court.
Dr, Ikpeazu has been a monumental failure as Governor not only to the entire state but to his Obingwa brethren who believed in him and voted massively for him. They finally had their chance of electing their son as Governor and what a disappointment he has turned out to be. A majority of the Ngwa people are hardworking decent people who unfortunately made a bad bet on this man. Their choice and support was not misplaced, rather it was expected as they did what every other community would have done considering the misplaced reliance on ethnic loyalty and preference in our body politics. In conclusion I make bold to say the Abia people need change and transformative leadership and that change must start with the LGA elections. I am sure when they see what is happening in Anambra State under the transformative leadership being provided by their APGA Governor Willie Obiano, they may begin to wonder, what could have been if a technocrat like Alex Otti had not been rigged out of his victory. There is a television advert presently being broadcast here in New York which goes thus, ‘you cannot be a cook, if you do not know how to cook. You cannot be a fire fighter, if you do not know how to fight fires, a coach if you don’t know how to coach or a leader if you do not know how to lead”. The Supreme Court Governor, Dr, Ikpeazu has been a leader or better still a misleader who does not know how to lead. A leader who has failed to be a force for good, affirm the basic norms of decency or meet the challenges of his office. The task before Abia people now and in 2019 is to produce that new leader we all need and hope for.

Nnanna Ijomah is a New York based Political Science Lecturer.

Politics › Still On The Diversification Of The Economy by comradefery(op): 3:52pm On Sep 19, 2016

Dr. Alex Otti Takes The Center Stage Once Again With The Part Two Of His Economic Masterpiece. Enjoy The Voyage!
Still On the Diversification of the Economy
September 19, 201661686
OUTSIDE THE BOX
By Alex Otti; alex.otti@thisdaylive.com
“In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable”Dwight Eisenhower
In my last column, I attempted to draw attention to the importance of diversifying our understanding of the diversification of the economy beyond commodities to less tangible but more important assets of our nation. These could be summarised under education, talent, entrepreneurship, intellectual property and skills. I concluded by arguing that most modern economies leveraged knowledge to leapfrog to development, even when they have commodities like us.
As our point of departure today, it will be safe to state that harnessing knowledge requires rigorous planning. Some people will be quick to interject that we have had plans in the past that did not yield the desired results. We had the first to the fourth national development plans and a few rolling plans thereafter. While I acknowledge the existence of these plans, I hasten to add just like Eisenhower that such beautifully crafted documents do not have any relationship with what we are discussing. We are interested in the process of thinking through and agreeing what we want to be, how we intend to get there, what we require to get there, who would be useful in our journey, when we have to get there, how to know when we get there and what to do if things change in the process of our journey. Effective planning does not make room for not getting there nor what to do if we don’t. This is because failure does not have a place in effective planning and by the time you find out that you failed, it would probably have become too late. There is a favourite saying that if you do not know where you are going, any road takes you there. Planning helps us to know where we are going and the route to get there.
The first question of where we want to be requires a lot of original thinking, given that no two countries are the same. This is the major job of leadership. Any entity that does not have leaders who can articulate the vision of that entity is doomed. This is where we should actually start the restructuring of our country from. If you look at the developed countries, you will notice that it is all about the vision of the leadership. The good thing about good vision is that it outlasts the visioner.
For our country, a good place to start will be to ensure that we maximise the capabilities and ingenuities of our people. A lot of people make the mistake of placing capital above people and when capital takes flight as it is wont to do, confusion sets in. Marxian economics, even though seems to have fallen on bad times with the collapse of USSR and other socialist countries, have some theories that are still very relevant up till today. One of them is the place of labour in the extraction of surplus value. Surplus value is also known as profit. Marxians insist that surplus value comes from labour and they have been able to demonstrate it mathematically. Simply put, they point out that if the three factors of production are land, capital and labour, the only way a combination of the three factors can produce more goods than the original inputs is that one or more of the factors yield much more than what was employed in the production process. Since land is a natural occurrence and there is no way land can be increased and capital is also fixed naturally, it is only labour that can transform itself and account for profit, depending on energy and time employed. One angle to look at it from is that the essence of government is the good of the people. So, government must be interested in anything that creates jobs for its people.
The other angle is that there is no invention anywhere in the world that was not created by people. Viable businesses insist that their most valuable resource is their people. If we agree with this theory, it then follows that as a country we must invest in our people to encourage them to use their talents for the benefit of the country. The most important encouragement you can give a people is neither food nor money, even though those are necessary. I believe it is education. Education liberates the mind, exposes people and sparks off their ability to think and create value. A few weeks ago, we hosted Mark Zuckerberg in this country. Beyond everything, one thing that I believe helped his talent is education. He benefited from very good education at Harvard University.
We must rethink the quality and quantity of education available to our people in Nigeria. One doesn’t take for granted, the fact that with the entrance of the private sector in education, there is a little bit of improvement, but that improvement pales into insignificance if one appreciates our current position assessment. If we look at the position of our universities, alongside other universities in the world, it will amaze not a few people that no Nigerian university made it amongst the first 600 in the league. If not for the University of Ibadan that rescued us, by placing number 11, no other Nigerian university made it to the list of the top 20 universities in Africa. When you look at enrollment, we are also in the very low category. With this kind of scorecard, how do we expect great performance from our graduates? However, we have very happy stories of some of our citizens excelling in spite of our inability to make our universities citadels of excellence.
We must sit back and draw up a clear roadmap of where we want our education to be. We must give ourselves targets. An example is to seriously decide that in four yearswhich will coincide with the life of an administration, not less than five of our universities must be rated amongst the best 10 universities in Africa and 100 in the world. We will then proceed with a clear planning of human resource, research and development, enrollment, faculty, curricular and most importantly funding to ensure flawless execution. We will then identify very capable and experienced hands to handle this project. In doing this, it would not matter where the hands come from even if we have to hire foreigners. We may also drill down further to identifying areas of research and development that we want each of the five universities to focus on. Just like India chose to specialise in modern Medicine and Information Technology, we may decide to add music and movie technology, taking those two, which our people have done well in, without help from government. We may also add modern textile manufacturing technology, modern designing of clothes, shoes and leather works and automobile manufacturing as part of the preferred areas of specialisation.

To complement the universities, we may, as part of our planning, designate certain locations as Medical, Information technology, Music, Movie, Textile, Leather, and Automobile Villages or hubs. To give effect to the designation, the government will acquire very large expanse of land, build state of the art facilities, and install machines and all necessary infrastructure to attract interested participants to those locations. Huge industrial parks would be built in those locations to enable shared services and encourage start-ups. Generous incentives like for example tax holidays and protective tariffs would be introduced to encourage and attract businesses to the locations. Management of the locations could be outsourced to the private sector and done in such a way as to encourage them to keep reasonable margins to ensure proper maintenance of the facilities, while maintaining the town and gown relationship with the universities. The government should have at the back of its mind, the original intention of the project which is not necessarily to make money but to encourage talents and entrepreneurship and reduce unemployment while diversifying the economy in a more enduring manner.
n four years, the planning government would have achieved a more respectable and well-funded educational system, created and encouraged talent, created jobs and jump-started local production. This can be replicated every four years by successive governments. I must tell doubters that this is not rocket science. It is this same country where arms and ammunition were produced during the civil war. A lot of arms are still being produced illegally in different parts of the country today. Crude oil is being illegally refined locally by people who may not have seen the four walls of a tertiary institution. A young man in Aba in 2014, built a generator from a disused Mercedes 911 engine. A man built a car, with very rough edges and rudimentary technology elsewhere recently. Imagine what will happen if government gets interested in some of these innovations and decides to put its balance sheet behind these local geniuses instead of the futile search for foreign investors.
The Facebook King spoke about the energy in Lagos. He was impressed with our boys and girls that are into software development and programming. Can’t we organise them and make laws that protect them and their intellectual property? Can’t we do better with copyright laws to protect our musicians and artistes in Nollywood? Can’t we build huge modern facilities in Lagos for instance and make it difficult for people to shoot films in other parts of West Africa and make money? Can’t we invest massively in roads, rail, power, and airports to ensure that we reduce the cost of doing business in Nigeria to encourage our people with ideas and skills to deploy those into products where they can make money and subsequently pay taxes to government? Don’t we think that would be a natural attraction to foreign investors rather than the frequent trips by our leaders to look for them? Have we wondered how a 1 per cent improvement in security would reduce capital flight and improve productivity? What about the very beautiful scenery littered across the length and breadth of the country? How have our planning looked at our tourist sites in Obudu, Idanre, Mambila, Yankari, Lokoja and the likes, not just to upgrade them to points of attraction, but make them accessible and secure so that we can begin to make money off them?

Do we realise that it is the responsibility of government to ensure that jobs are created for its populace? What is government’s target unemployment rate? How is planning being handled to bring down unemployment rate from close to the present 40 per cent to a manageable number? Recently, we watched the second largest domestic airline close shop and send thousands of people home. Should government let this happen given that beyond the job loses, the suffering of the flying public would multiply? Does government through planning know how many aircraft we need to safely move people around the country? How come no one spoke about bailout funds for Aero Contractors, which by the way is now owned by AMCON? When the US government bailed out auto manufacturers in 2009, it was not because US President Barack Obama liked the faces of those companies. It was to save jobs and save the economy. Less than six years after, all of them have turned the corner and refunded all the bailout funds given to them with interest. Obama could have ignored them like we ignored Aero and the undertakers could have come in and thousands of jobs could have disappeared.
Suffice it to say that development does not happen by accident. It has to be properly planned and flawlessly executed. Flowing from some of the areas we have identified, which by the way is not exhaustive, it is clear that our planning would be led by the president and the chief visioner of the country assisted by a team of well trained and experienced experts. The main beneficiaries should be the private sector who would join when the objective conditions have been created. It is fallacious to expect the private sector to lead planning. It has never happened and will never happen. The private sector will support the government who is expected not only to show the light, but to fund it and regulate it. Government must then support the private sector to create jobs. That is the logic of stimulus spending. Government pumps money into the system to get the private sector to create jobs. Once people have jobs, demand will be stimulated because workers, paid workers I mean, will spend money to buy goods which in turn will get more businesses to produce to meet the increasing demand and by so doing create more jobs. Taxes will flow both from businesses and the employed population and the tempo of economic activity will increase and recession will give way to economic growth.
In our diversification journey, we must spend time to articulate what we want to achieve and ensure that we do what we agreed. Planning without action is futile just like action without planning is fatal.

Politics › Still On The Diversification Of The Economy by comradefery(op): 3:46pm On Sep 19, 2016

Politics › Diversification Of The Economy? Yes, But by comradefery(op): 7:17am On Sep 13, 2016

Diversification of The Economy? Yes, But
September 12, 201641086

OUTSIDE THE BOX
BY ALEX OTTI

“Planning is an unnatural process. It is much more fun to do something else. The nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise, rather than being preceded by a period of worry and depression. Failing to plan is planning to fail.” Sir John Harvey Jones (1924-2008).
It is no longer news that our economy has made it into the recession territory. What is news is that we seem to have been caught unawares as articulated by the erstwhile University Chancellor Sir John Harvey Jones. I say unawares, not because some people did not foresee it, but because, we don’t seem to have been prepared for it. Let me start by saying what this article is not about. We are not here to apportion blames. Neither are we here to look for what they call “who donnit”? The reason is that going in that direction may lead us to loose the essence of the discussion. We intend to refocus the argument and possibly change the narrative about diversification of the structure of the Nigerian economy by establishing the central place of planning and deliberate actions for pre-determined results.
There seems to be a consensus that our problem is what analysts call concentration risk. This means that because we relied on a single product for virtually all our foreign exchange earnings, the drop in the international price of that product led to a massive reduction in the quantum of foreign exchange available to us. Besides, we are forced to shut down some of our oil production as a result of the activities of militants in the Niger Delta. This is worsened by the fact that what we spent the hitherto available foreign exchange to buy from other countries have not reduced. Given this scenario, we are forced to either ration the scarce foreign exchange by allocation to only a few areas or sell toonly those who can afford it, leading to a more expensive foreign exchangeregime. To tame the slide, at least in the short run, a few actions have been taken.
Solving the problem more permanently has led to the issue of diversification of the economy to enable us produce other things and reduce dependence on oil. Unfortunately, the discussion of diversification, seems to have been narroweddown to agriculture and solid minerals. In this two part intervention, I will like us to exhaustively look at diversification and determine if the way we are pushing it will solve our problems on a long term basis so that we don’t come back to the same issues in a few years when we are faced with another round of drop in prices.
There is no argument that prices of primary products and natural resources are not within the control of producers. They are in the main determined externally by buyers. Unlike oil that has a cartel called OPEC, whose figures we are going to rely heavily on in the course of this discussion, agricultural products, (and that is if we are going to produce them in a competitive manner to enable exports) and solid minerals do not have a cartel to protect exporters. It therefore follows that sellers are at the mercy of market forces and powerful buyers. We must look at diversification beyond replacing one natural resource with another or increasing the number of resources in the basket, for a more enduring solution to our economic problems.

Before now, we used to pride ourselves as an oil economy. We were celebratedas the 6th largest producer of oil. Maybe that was factually correct but it was also relatively and analytically misleading, and I will explain why shortly. We went on a spending spree, competing with the real oil economies of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar. We flooded our country with all manner of imports from private jets to toothpicks. When you look at the OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2016, a few shivering details will come to the fore and probably help us to learn a little humility. There are 13 member countries of OPEC accounting for over 80% of world oil supply. Comparing 2015 average figures for some African OPEC countries with Nigeria, Algeria produced 1,157,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bc/d) while Angola produced 1,767,000 bc/d. Going to the Arab World, Kuwait produced 2,859,000 bc/d while Qatar produced 656,000 bc/d. Nigeria on the other hand produced 1,748,000 bc/d. Now, compare the daily production quotas with their population to understand, for purposes of this discussion, how many barrels of oil each person in each country would be entitled to. Algeria has a population of about 40m people while there are just about 25m people in Angola. Kuwait boasts a meager 4m people while Qatar has less than 2.5m people. Compare these figures to Nigeria that has over 180m people to share the crude oil amongst. Simplifying the math, it means that while 35 people shared 1 barrel of crude per day or the dollar equivalent in Algeria, 14 people shared a barrel in Angola, 2 people shared same in Kuwait and 3 people in Qatar. 3 people each also shared a barrel in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates respectively. Meanwhile, a whopping 370 of us in Nigeria shared 1 barrel of crude oil per day. What this means is that even if oil prices were to climb to $150 per barrel, each Nigerian would have been entitled to only 40 cents daily as our share.
Again, another sad commentary is in the area of how we have harnessed crude oil to add value to citizens by refining products locally and exporting less of crude, while creating jobs by ensuring that we don’t only maintain huge refining capacity but that it works. Algeria’s refining capacity is 650,000 b/d but it refines 628,000 b/d and consumes 418,000 b/d, exporting 210,000 b/d as refined products. Kuwait’s installed capacity is 936,000 b/d. It refines 1,013,000 b/d while its domestic demand is 345,000 b/d leaving it with about 668,000 b/d of refined products for export. Qatar’s installed capacity is 283,000 b/d, but it refines 611,000 b/d. Its local demand is 206,000 b/d while it exports 405,000 b/d of refined products. It must be noted that both Qatar and Kuwait who refine more than their installed capacity have condensates and Gas to Liquids (GTL) computed as part of their final products.
Nigeria is the only one here with a very dysfunctional story. We have installed refining capacity of 455,000 b/d, and refine a dismal 24,000 b/d locally leaving a wide gap of 384,000 b/d for importation given that our domestic consumption is in the region of 408,000 b/d. It is in this area that we, as a country stood logic on its head and inflicted serious injury on our economy by exporting jobs, exporting our foreign reserves and importing poverty. All these have been made possible because we did not plan on how to benefit from the resources that we were blessed with. Had we planned better, we would have ensured that we improved not only our refining capacity, but also our output of refined petroleum products. If we did that, we would have been shipping final refined products rather than crude oil. It may seem late, but I don’t believe that we cannot do anything about it, even at this moment.

Given the picture painted above, everyone seems to agree that the solution to our problem is diversification. States have led the way by encouraging citizens to go back to the farm. One of the states in the South East has declared a three day work week to enable civil servants spend the remaining two days in the farm. The call to go back to the farm is a welcome development, if for nothing to ensure we have food on our table and positively engage a lot of the unemployed members of our society. However, the assumption that agriculture will boost our foreign exchange earnings and solve our problems is misplaced. Before you can earn foreign currency, you must have exported something. Granted that we have some crops like cocoa, cashew nuts, and Palm fruits that are exportable, many of our crops cannot be exported. Even when they are required by foreigners, the strict conditions attached make it unattractive. We are also not in a position to add a lot of value to our crops. Herein lies the danger pointed out earlier with respect to who determines prices of agricultural products. Buyers determine the quantity, quality and price of the crop. Yours truly suffered this fate some 20 years ago when I made a foray into exporting cocoa. A friend approached me to invest in his cocoa exporting business about a year before and the returns I was getting were quite healthy. By June 1996, I took a break from banking to go and set up a full-fledged commodity trading company with staff in Ikom in Cross River State and Idanre in Ondo State. Business looked good until a few months later when the major international buyers decided to crash prices by reducing demand. In one week, cocoa shelved over $400 per tonne in export prices, sending most of us reeling in loses and subsequently out of the market. The rest, like they say, is history.
The other focus of our diversification is solid minerals. It has been reported that we are blessed with 44 solid minerals found in commercial quantities across the length and breadth of the country. Out of this number, 7 have been prioritized by the Federal government for investment by the public and private sector with generous incentives to “exploiters” and investors. The seven preferred minerals are gold which we have large alluvial and primary deposits in commercial quantities spread in the North West and South West. Iron ore is readily available in the country, in fact we have the 12th largest reserve in the world with over 3billion tonnes found. We also have about 42billion tonnes of bitumen in reserves. This is twice our crude oil reserves. We have over 10m tonnes of Lead/Zinc deposits and 3billion tonnes of low sulfur and low ash Coal in the country and it is estimated that this can power about 30% of our energy demand in years to come. We are also extremely rich in limestone deposits as 2.3trillion tonnes deposits exist across different states of the country. We also have deposits of Baryte and Bentonite to the tune of close to 10million tonnes and 700million tonnes in reserves respectively.

Statistics has it that solid minerals contributed about 1% to the GDP in 2014 and all things being equal, it is expected to increase to 5% in 2017 and 10% by 2020. It is also expected to create about 3million jobs by next year. While all these will be of immense help to the economy, my worry is that just like oil, we cannot ensure against massive fall in prices after we would have made heavy investments. My contention is that quite unlike oil where major producers have organised themselves into a cartel, it is much more difficult to benefit from such an arrangement in the solid minerals space. In planning our economy, we must pay attention to sustainability. It is time we looked at enduring activities that would guarantee economic development in an intelligently planned fashion over the long run as distinct from knee jerk reaction to economic cycles which are bound to happen from time to time. We need to do things that would encourage talent, creativity, research and development and knowledge. I dare say that the ruling economies of the world today are knowledge economies and not resource-rich economies. If you are still in doubt, I will leave you with this Chinese proverb “If you plan for one year, plant rice, if you plan for ten years, plant trees, if you plan for 100 years, educate minds” Finally, may I use this opportunity to wish my Moslem brothers and sisters a happy Eid.
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Politics › Arrest Of Abia Facts Publisher By DSSS Is Illegal by comradefery(op): 3:25pm On Sep 07, 2016

Emenike's Arrest Is Condemnable.
By. Ferdinand Ekeoma.

The illegal arrest of Comrade Iroegbu Emenike of Abia Facts Newspapers (An Online Media Outfit) by men of the DSS in Uyo, Akwaibom State, and his subsequent transfer and detention in Umuahia is an anti democratic affront that must be condemned by all men of good conscience and lovers of democracy.
It would be recalled that officers of the Department of State Securite Service (DSSS) yesterday violently stormed the home of the Abia born Media Practitioner in a Nazi Gestapo manner, ransacked and scattered his house, took his phones and laptop before bundling him into their car and subsequently took him to their station where he was briefly detained before being taken to the Abia State capital.
Emenike's illegal arrest is alleged to have been masterminded by the agents of Abia State Government which is why he was bundled down to Umuahia from Uyo.
The fact that the members of the DSS came with no warrant, and gave no cogent reason is a confirmation to the illegality of the arrest.
It's important that members of the DSSS learn a big lesson from what happened to some soldiers and other security agents who made them selves willing tools in the hands of some enemies of democracy before and during the 2015 general election.
Members of the DSSS should not play into the hands of enemies of Abia State who are determined to perpetuate misgovernance and dictatorship by silencing the voices of the media and the opposition through intimidation, illegal arrest and incarceration.
If the DSSS and their sponsors think they have got any issues to settle with the media, critics and opposition members etc, the instruments of the law must be applied.
If Abia State government and their agents are truly responsible for this primitive kind of political harassment as being alleged, I would advise that they retreat, because anti democratic harassment of this nature has never triumphed over democratic voice of reasoning.
Comrade Iroegbu Emenike's illegal arrest is wicked, insulting, undemocratic and embarrassing to Abians hence the need for his abductors to immediately release him unconditionally in the interest of peace.
Decomcracy has come to stay in Nigeria, and Abia cannot be an exemption.

Politics › The Tsa And Financial Systems Stability by comradefery(op): 4:34pm On Aug 29, 2016

The TSA And Financial Systems Stability.

OUTSIDE THE BOX By ALEX OTTI Alex.Otti@thisdaylive.com

Given my background as a former managing director of a major bank, I struggled with the propriety of writing on what I believe is a looming crisis in this sector that I love and to which I owe a lot. I felt that some people may interpret it as loyalty to my constituency, but I am sure that more perceptive people will agree that I had not spared the industry and former colleagues in previous articles when necessary.
After serious reflection, I was convinced that it was my patriotic duty to raise this necessary alarm in this formal and public format. Simply put, the manner in which the TSA is currently being implemented, has the potential to drag the larger economy into further distress. It is imperative that concerned parties take a second look at it with a view to addressing some of the unintended consequences.
The Treasury Single Account (TSA) was introduced in 2012 to “sweep”, on a daily basis, all balances in the accounts of ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) into a consolidated government account with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). It was not until late last year that the Muhammadu Buhari government ordered its immediate implementation. It is estimated that commercial banks in the country lost up to N3.5 trillion of their deposits to full rollout of the TSA scheme. The whole idea of the TSA is to ensure transparency in the management of funds belonging to government and stop government functionaries from running multiple accounts in multiple banks. Relevant government departments would have oversight of all cash flows across the banks.
It is aimed at monitoring receipts and expenditure and blocking leakages as operational accounts would cease to exist. It is expected that the TSA would eliminate inefficiency in the management of government funds. There are instances where one arm of government would wind up with credit balances in one bank while at the same time borrowing in other banks and even in some cases, the same bank. Some government agencies would have credit balances in some of their accounts and debit balances in others in the same bank. They would then end up making huge interest payments on the debit balances while earning little or nothing on their credit balances. The TSA was to take care of all those inefficient account management practices.

Last week, CBN came up with the news that nine banks were suspended from the foreign exchange market for withholding and concealing over $2.2 billion NNPC/NLNG funds which were meant to have been remitted to the TSA last year. A day later, one of the banks was let off the hook, apparently, having remitted its own portion. Shortly after, the NNPC came out with a statement to the effect that it was actually the one that discovered the concealment and reported the matter to the Presidency which in turn called CBN’s attention to it. Meanwhile, the affected banks came out with different statements, explaining their own positions, most of them denying the concealment allegation.
I believe a lot of things went wrong with this whole drama. The most curious is the NNPC statement. Could it be true that NNPC discovered the ‘concealed’ funds after all the funds should have been remitted close to a year ago? If this is true, then something very terrible is wrong with an organisation which would discover that its $2.2 billion was missing, almost one year after. On the issue of concealment, is it possible for the banks to hide the said funds? My take is that it is not. All the banks render returns to the central bank periodically and public sector funds must be reported. Besides, the CBN and Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) do very thorough examination of banks periodically and such records cannot be hidden.
While the intentions behind the TSA are quite laudable, I do think that the way it was implemented, rather hurt the economy big time. I also feel it was implemented at a very inappropriate time. First and foremost, we must look at the economy as a system with different component parts. A weakness in one unit easily becomes a weakness in the entire system. It is like a chain that is as strong as the weakest link. You may not like banks (and may be bankers), but they remain the engine of the economy. That is why everywhere in the world, banks are treated with some caution as any negative action naturally would have a spiral effect on the economy. The timing of the withdrawal of public sector funds from banks coincided with when the economy was reeling from drastic fall in oil prices and attendant foreign exchange crisis.
That was a time when all economic hands needed to be on deck to swim out of the mess we found ourselves. That should not have been the time to take such a drastic action that was capable of sinking some banks. If it is true that about N3.5 trillion was lost by the commercial banks to TSA, it therefore follows that the banking industry lost over 50 per cent of total specified liquid assets which had averaged N6.75 trillion in the last two years. Put simply, liquid assets of banks are cash and near cash items which banks can access quickly to meet short term maturing obligations. The most important job of the bank is to be able to pay customers when they want to withdraw their money. Every bank must have enough war chest to respond to emergency withdrawals.
Therefore, the ability of banks to deal with this most important function was reduced by half as a result of the implementation of the TSA. The other point is that the withdrawal represented about 20 per cent of deposits of all the banks in the country estimated at about N17.5 trillion as at the end of the first quarter this year and 13 per cent of the aggregate assets of the industry which stood at N27.4 trillion by the end of April this year. A cursory look at these numbers will show that this economy is not only small, but very fragile even in the best of times. This is more so during a period of severe economic crisis such as now. Understanding these issues should help in determining the kind of shock the economy can
absorb.
Given the scenario painted, one thinks a phased approach would have been a lot better than the ‘one fell swoop’ action. Having done that already, I believe that the events of last week are unhelpful given the recession that has hit us. The implication of banning those banks amongst which are four of the eight systemically important banks includes that their customers would have to go elsewhere for foreign trade transactions including letters of credit and bills payments denominated in foreign currency. The panic created could make customers want to withdraw their deposits for fear of losing them, in case CBN makes good its threat to further penalise those banks.
The banned banks themselves, who I understand were unable to pay the $2.2 billion because of lack of dollar liquidity and the scarcity experienced in the foreign exchange market are further thrown into more crises as they have been shut out of the market from where they could have been able to source the foreign exchange to pay back. The ability of such banks to engage in lending activities would also be impaired by this action. Their margins would be further put under pressure and they would be left with no option than to consider further cost cutting measures including laying off staff like we had seen in the recent past.
The central bank needs not be reminded that one of its most important functions is to maintain financial and economic systems stability. It must weigh its action against this major requirement. I am unable to see how the recent action helps stability. The announcement-effect has great capacity to further damage the brands and precipitate a run on the banks. Foreign exchange rates that had hovered around N395 to the dollar jumped next day to over N400 and closed on Friday at around N410. The stock market also responded sharply as it was reported that banking stocks headed south, resulting in the loss of billions of naira in market capitalisation. My thoughts are that the central bank should look deeply at the circumstances surrounding the inability of those banks to pay back the deposits in the original currency that they were received.
It should, therefore, consider accepting local currency equivalent from the banks. In fact, the CBN should debit the banks’ accounts domiciled with it for the naira equivalent. Some of the banks had extended fairly long term loans to both the power and oil sector which we all know cannot be liquidated immediately. Some have even made provisions for the loans in the light of the current realities of the economy. The alternative is for the CBN to work out structured repayment plan for the banks to enable them pay back the funds to the TSA over an agreed period of time. We should do everything to prevent a crisis in the banking sector. The last exercise which resulted in the creation of AMCON left the economy with very deep scars as the cost of that resolution was above N4 trillion and recovery is proving extremely difficult.
While I agree with the benefits of the TSA as intelligently espoused by its proponents, I do have quite some concerns about it. Besides the timing issue I raised earlier, I do not agree that taking out such large amount of money from the banking system and locking same away in CBN vault is useful to the economy. Economists talk about the multiplier effect of money. This means that money in banks is capable of creating more money as banks continue to lend portions of it to areas of need. Denying the banking industry access to such an amount of money is a great disservice to the economy. It is also a disservice to the government as I am not sure that CBN would pay interest to government at market rate, that is, if pays at all. There is no denying the fact that government remains the largest spender in the economy as shown by the numbers above.
Keeping the largest spender out of the banking system can only hurt the economy as the ability of financial intermediaries to put such funds to use is hampered.
CBN is not structured to operate as a commercial bank and that is why the subtle complaints from some parastatals about difficulty in making simple payments and procurements since the implementation of TSA. My submission about the TSA is that it should be reviewed to work in all the banks where the government has accounts. Every bank will be made to have a TSA which is accessible to both the CBN and the government, where all government balances are pooled on a daily basis and the bank is made to pay interest on aggregate credit balances and charge interest on debit balances.
The system could also be designed such that either CBN or Ministry of Finance would fund all debit balances in banks on a daily basis to ensure the issue of paying interest in one bank while the government has net credit balances in others does not arise. All told, I must also remind banks that it is unacceptable in banking to engage in mismatch of any form, be it tenor or currency. Lending short term funds for long term projects is a ‘no no’. So is lending foreign currency for projects that can only generate local currency. Having said that, I strongly believe that it is no use throwing away the baby and the bath water.
FAKE ARTICLE THAT WAS TRENDING IN THE SOCIAL MEDIA
On Wednesday August 24, my attention was drawn to a mischievous article by some spineless folks titled “IN MONTHS TO COME, A TOYOTA CAMRY WOULD BE OFFERED FOR N50,000 JUST TO FEED THE FAMILY”. This poorly written article that trended in the social media had my name as the author. It made an attempt to cast aspersions on the president comparing his first coming to the present. I will like to inform everyone who saw the article that it does not have anything to do with me. I consider it a hatchet man’s job whose purpose I am yet to ascertain. I therefore call on my readers to ignore it and note that the medium for my articles is “Outside The Box” in THISDAY Newspapers and

THISDAYLIVE
thisdaylive.com

Politics › The Tsa And Financial Systems Stability by comradefery(op): 4:24pm On Aug 29, 2016

Politics › APGA Press Release by comradefery(op): 7:37pm On Aug 19, 2016

APGA PRESS RELEASE.

The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) Abia State has received the news of the judgement of Court of Appeal siting in Abuja which upheld the election of Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu as the Governor of Abia State after dismissing the verdict of an Abuja High Court presided over by Justice Okon Abang which earlier found Dr. Ikpeazu guilty of supplying false tax information and removed him as Governor.
As a law abiding party with the utmost interest of Abians at heart, APGA is happy that the Uche Ogah led PDP faction and their supporters have emulated the Alex Otti/ APGA example of peaceful conduct by accepting the judgment though unfavorable in good faith and with absolute equanimity while preparing to explore the option of appeal at the Supreme Court; this is how a civilized and responsible people behave in a democracy.
APGA hopes that the Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu -led faction of the PDP and their supporters would learn a lesson from this and subsequently desist from the misuse of public funds through sponsored protests, violence, threats, and general breach of public peace whenever a judgement goes against them; that is the only way to show leadership responsibility against selfish desperation.
In keeping to our long standing high regard for the judiciary and the Rule of Law, we respect the verdict of the Court of Appeal and thus do not intend to embark on a reckless voyage of pouring venom and vituperation against the Learned Justices and their judgement the way the Ikpeazu PDP faction and their supporters do. However, as interested parties we wish to make few critical but objectionable observations in the judgment ;
First, in the judgment, the Appeal court held that " The inadequacies of the tax receipts cannot be visited on Ikpeazu ". The Court premised this decision on the basis that Ikpeazu was not the one that prepared the said documents. We completely disagree with this decision because every taxable adult whether a private individual or a government employee /appointee is expected to know what he pays or what is being deducted from his salaries as tax, and therefore should care about the accuracy or otherwise of the information on his tax receipts, especially when such details are meant to be submitted for the purpose of an election.
Also the law does not require the tax agency to be the supplier of the information to the appropriate electoral /political institution, rather the aspirant who has been issued with such documents/information, such a person is also expected by law to suffer injuries arising from any false information hence the need for accuracy and thoroughness. So the attempt by the court to shift the consequences to the agency that cannot be punished here is unacceptable to us.

Would the court have endorsed documents showing one year tax clearance or any other untrue information from the accused just because the information contained therein was not prepared by him?
Could any other questionable explanation, even if it was an afterthought, from Abia state Board of Internal Revenue have corrected the false information, exonerated the accused or justified the false information he supplied when the agency in question remains under the control of the accused?
We believe that the law must have envisaged criminal connivance between individuals and institutions like a tax agency the way it is obtainable in Abia hence the constitutional prescription of punishment against individuals that supply false information.
Secondly and most importantly the court claimed that the Federal High Court presided over by Justice Abang lacked the jurisdiction to have heard the case because it was not properly filed having been signed by three lawyers for the Plaintiff against the requirement of one identifiable legal practitioner, and accused the Judge of assisting the litigant.
While APGA does not intend to delve deeply into this purely technical issue of filing/jurisdiction, we are,however, alarmed by its resurrection by the Appeal court when the Supreme Court had earlier decided on the issue of jurisdiction against Ikpeazu which necessitated it's directive for the Federal High Court to commence accelerated hearing in the case ab initio.
Without doubt, the hasty dismissal of the jurisdiction of the Trial Court by Appeal court against what the Supreme Court had earlier decided must have aided its decision to scratch the key issues of tax on the surface. This leaves us with the conviction that a thorough job may not have been done in this matter.
Finally, APGA wishes to express its dismay over the not too impressive and honorable utterances of the Justices of the Court of Appeal since the just decided case was brought before them.
We regret to state that our careful observation suggests that the Judges derived joy using derogatory words against individuals rather than apply fair legal terms in accepting or dismissing cases or applications of individuals without necessarily insulting such persons who have merely expressed their rights in the most acceptable and constitutional manner by coming to court.
The judges used such words against APGA and her candidate while dismissing the APGA joinder appeal, and they also repeatedly used such words in the most insulting manner against Justice Okon Abang, against known modern judicial practices.
The Judges forgot that Justice Abang was a lone Judge who was likely to make more mistakes in deciding a case, unlike Appeal court with five justices who would put heads together to decide a case.
Also when the Appeal court initially ruled on the issue of jurisdiction in favour of Ikpeazu before the commencement of trial proper, the Supreme Court took contrary position against the Appeal court but in support of the earlier decision of the Federal High Court, the Supreme Court didn't resort to insulting the Appeal court Justices even though it upturned their verdict; we therefore appeal to the Judges to behave better next time by shunning this swagger of arrogance that evokes suspicious hostility.
As usual we appeal to all Abians across political lines to shun political and sectional hate, those engineered by selfish politicians. The present legal battle is aimed at opening our democratic space while bringing to an end years of political docility and impunity that has held Abia down for the good of all; that is the beauty of democracy which can only be understood and appreciated by those with knowledge of democracy.
Abia must be better.
Signed
Rev. Augustine Ehiemere
State Chairman, APGA.

Politics › I Don't Do Politics Part III by comradefery(op): 9:35am On Aug 15, 2016

I DON’T DO POLITICS Part III
August 15, 201611269
OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI alex.otti@thisdaylive.com

“The worst illiterate is the political illiterate. He hears nothing, sees nothing, and takes no part in political life. He doesn’t seem to know that the cost of living, the price of beans, of flour, of rent, of medicines, all depend on political decisions. He even prides himself on his political ignorance, sticks out his chest and says he hates politics. The slowpoke doesn’t know that from his political non-participation, comes the prostitute, the abandoned child, the robber and, worst of all, corrupt officials, the lackeys of exploitative multinational corporations”.
Eugen Bertolt Fredrich Brecht (1898-1956)
There can’t be a better way to conclude our three part treatise on the apathy of competent people towards politics, than the above words of Eugen Brecht. Brecht may appear harsh, but he said the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. There are tons of excuses that many people give for their refusal to participate in politics. This is not new given that it is natural that failure be matched with excuses. But excuses do not correct missteps, actions do. And act, we must if we are interested in saving this country from groping in the dark.
As we act, we must not be deterred by real or imaginary negative consequences. It was Ray Anderson who said that the powers that hold people in bondage do not relinquish control very easily. We must convince ourselves that what we are doing is the right thing and that the powers that we see today, are man-made and with consistency and commitment, we are bound to see them no more, when we have battled them to submission. We must also agree that we collectively own the country and refuse to accept a situation where a few people lord it over the rest of us more so, when there is nothing to indicate that those people have much more to offer.
Some people would agonise that the way politics of the country is organised, it is foolhardy to take the risk. The organisation is such that in the legislature, if you are not a ranking member, you can hardly become a principal officer. The question no one has been able to answer is: where they got ranking members in 1999 at the inception of this republic; who made up the first set of principal officers they had at that time? This action aptly describes the saying about climbing up with a ladder and removing and destroying the ladder to ensure no one else is able to climb. As a result of the ranking policy, some legislators who have added little or no value insist on presenting themselves at every election so as not to lose their ranks. Unfortunately, the elites have failed in their responsibility to take on these legislators and educate the electorate with a view to retiring them as those ranks are useless to the people they are ostensibly representing.
As if that is not enough, we are now faced with a situation where the state of the economy has left states and the Federal governments prostrate. But the same entities have been saddled with so much recurrent bills to pay that sooner or later, they won’t be able to function. What we see is that our leaders still behave as if they were in the era of $100 dollar crude prices. Not a lot of them are worried that there should be a relationship between income and expenditure. As a matter of fact, some of them do not even have the intellectual depth to understand that you can’t give what you don’t have.
We still have to pay humongous pecks which our leaders approved for themselves in the era of oil boom. Our leaders still maintain fleets of aircrafts and vehicles, a retinue of aides and grandiose lifestyle while seeking bailout funds and loans. Meanwhile, civil servants and other workers are owed several months of salary areas. If more competent people show interest in how we are governed, many of our leaders would have been required to answer questions on how our common patrimony is managed and would be forced to sit up. The reason they carry on with reckless abandon is that the people who have the capacity to raise issues, ask questions or even seek to replace them at elections don’t seem to be interested.
Still talking about the economic recession facing us and the fact that we have become a poor nation as espoused by President Buhari last week, I believe this is one opportunity for more competent people to get into the ring. Because of the fall in oil prices, states now go home from Abuja with less than half of the allocations they were getting prior to this time. Unfortunately, most of our leaders don’t get it. They seem not to understand that while it may look attractive, going cap in hand to Abuja for federal allocation is not sustainable. Most of the states can run their affairs without relying on the centre if their leaders knew what to do.
When you look at their policies, some of them take anti-business positions. They refuse to invest in their states, ignore failing infrastructure, pay lip service to security and sanitation issues, and are not interested in both the educational and healthcare delivery systems. When they do, it is approached as a favour to the people rather than as a way to improve the environment to attract investment. I have no doubt that some leaders may be forced to abdicate their thrones as people increasingly get restive about the situation. We can see the signs today, but it is still early days.
Some people will argue that they do not have the required funds to participate in an election as it is known to be very expensive. I must admit that elections are not cheap in this part of the globe. My response, however, is that we must start from somewhere. Since Rome was not built in a day, we don’t expect that everyone would become politically active at the same time. Even if that happened, all of them cannot participate at the same level. May be the best place to start from is those who can afford it. Truth be told, there are a lot of people who are in a position to foot the required bill but shy away. One of the reasons they shy away is self- interest. They don’t want to risk their businesses and professions to go into politics. That is understandable. But they should reflect on Brecht’s exhortations above.
What if the politician takes a decision that could negatively affect or even obliterate your business or profession? What is the cost of having an incompetent person make decisions and pass laws on matters that they sometimes hardly know anything about? Do they spare a thought about the future of their families in the hands of misfits? The point one is raising is that we should start with those who are in a position to support their ambitions and extend to other competent hands, who, even if they are not able to fund elections, should benefit from pooled resources from those that they know to sponsor and support them to power. This is the same thing that the so called “chartered politicians” do to perpetuate themselves in power. All these are possibilities either within the context of existing political party structure or under an entirely new party platform.
The next point and probably the most important one is the issue of the electorate that cast the votes that the politicians ride on to get to power. Because we are not interested, those who are interested offer themselves and it is only those that offer themselves that can be voted for. You will be surprised that a lot of the elites do not even vote in elections.
Some of them see election days as public holidays, so they just watch television sets and sleep the whole day or visit friends within the neighborhood, since movement is usually restricted. Some do not even have voters’ cards as they are not registered voters. Some are so insulated from their environment that they have no clue who the candidates are and don’t care to know. So, if this is your lot, how do you think you can make a difference in the affairs that concern you the most? The issue of voter apathy is demonstrated by data from the recent elections conducted in Nigeria. In the 2015 general election, out of the 91.7million voting age population, only 67.4million people offered themselves to be registered. Of this number, the average voter turnout was just over 43% even though this is a huge improvement from the 29% voter turnout recorded in 2011. It is instructive here to note that for the 2015 figures, the only exception is a local government known as Obingwa in Abia State that returned about 95% voter turnout just for the Governorship election.
This is basically because in this local government, even the dead woke up to vote for the party in power on election day. That is a story for another day. If we compare voter turnout in Nigeria with those of the US at over 70% and UK at over 65%, you will agree that we have a lot of work to do. I believe that if we managed to push the numbers up, the outcomes of those elections may just have been different. I do not wish away the fact that sometimes depending on what is sold to the electorate, they may vote first and seek to understand why they voted later. An example is the recent referendum on Britain’s exit from the European Union. There are reports that after some people voted to exit, they came back to search for the meaning of EU in Google.What those who know need to do is to take up the responsibility of educating the rest and raising their political consciousness. The electorate needs to understand the power of their votes. They need to be made to understand that those that share rice and bread during elections do not mean well for them. They need to be made to understand that what is being shared belongs to them. They need to know that even after collecting back their money, they can still vote against those sharing the loot.
They need to be taught that those who rig election and write fake results are enemies. They need to know that it is their right to defend their votes and ensure that their votes count. They need to know that until they do things like these, their conditions will not improve. All these do not require too much, other than political education. It is political education that has made government by brute force unattractive. It is the same education that made the citizens of Turkey poured out on the streets a few weeks ago to resist a coup that had almost succeeded.
It is important to note that just like Emperor Haile Selassie said “throughout history, it has been the inaction of those who could have acted; the indifference of those who should have known better; the silence of the voice of Justice when it mattered most; that has made it possible for evil to triumph”. Finally, Franz Fanon nailed it simply with the following words “every on looker is either a coward or a traitor”. It is for you to choose where you belong.

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Politics › I Still Don't Do Politics - By Dr. Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 1:07pm On Aug 01, 2016

I Still Don’t Do Politics.
OUTSIDE THE BOX
BY ALEX OTTI
Two weeks ago, we started with a discussion of why it is important that we populate the political space with competent and skilled people rather than what it is today, where a lot of mediocrities and charlatans parade themselves as politicians, taking decisions on the lives of people who are more endowed than them. Today’s title should have been “I don’t do Politics Part II” but I remembered a two-volume interesting book I read several years ago which I will still recommend to interested readers today. The first volume is titled “What they don’t teach you at Harvard Business School” while the second volume is “What they still don’t teach you at Harvard Business School”. In these unconventionally titled books, Mark McComarck attempts to compliment what business schools taught by playing up the need to read and understand people as major requirements for the success of a street smart executive. He dwells on instincts, perception and preparations as sine qua non for effective negotiations and sales. He ends up with tips on how to run successful businesses. Following McComarck’s lead, we have titled today’s piece, “I Still Don’t Do Politics”.
To buttress the point I made about the unpreparedness and mediocrity of some of our politicians, an Indian, resident in California who says he reads this column regularly, while commending my last column sent me a link to a YouTube video of a member of our House of Representatives struggling to answer a question on the economy. That video is better watched than described. Our honourable member in responding to a question on the economy described it as shaking and blinking and about sinking but on top of water, whatever that means. In defending President Muhammadu Buhari’s frequent trips, he explained that the president’s trip to Saudi Arabia was important because he needed to work on the Saudi government to increase oil prices since Nigeria was in his opinion, the largest oil producers. He concluded that he supports the president because he knows he is a “trust man”. You do not have to take my word for it. Go to YouTube and search “Hilarious video: Nigerian Economy is doing like this and like this”.
We seem to have consigned ourselves to a nation that does not believe in putting our best foot forward. I do not know of any serious football team that fields its third 11 or like in our case, those who lack football skills and expect to win. Of course, there are all sorts of reasons to justify why our best people show no interest in politics. I had a very interesting discussion with Comrade Peter Esele, a former President of TUC and PENGASSAN, smarting from the All Progressives Congress (APC) primaries where he lost to Godwin Obaseki in Edo State. He had called to discuss the last piece and opined that the major problem is funding. Running elections is a very expensive venture and without state support, meaning the support of the incumbent, it is impossible for most people to participate successfully, he argued. While agreeing with him, I made the point that my advice goes first and foremost to those who are skilled and are able to fund the process but shy away for all sorts of reasons.
Rome was not built in a day and I strongly believe that if we have more competent people who show interest, it would be a question of time for the political space to be taken over by more qualified people. At the end of the discussion, Esele being convinced, sent me the following message which I have his permission to share: “I have equally made up my mind not to shy away. I am tired of agonising. We have to continue to knock on the door. Someday, somehow, it will open and we all walk into a new day where critical, strategic and forward thinking leaders will hold sway to usher in a durable peace and progress for this paradise named, Nigeria” I thank Esele for letting me dissuade him from getting despondent from his not too good an experience in the Edo governorship primaries.
The other issue that scares the living daylight out of a lot of people is violence. The truth is that this is premeditated. The logic is that the right people who should be in politics in the country are not necessarily like the “thugs and dogs” who parade themselves as politicians today. They therefore unleash maximum violence including assassination to keep decent people away. Some politicians have perfected the art of arming unemployed youths who would cause mayhem and coerce people into submission right from the beginning of the electoral process. The sad part is that once they have been armed, it becomes impossible to disarm them even after the job for which they were recruited have been delivered. Sometimes, when their services are no longer required, they turn the arms against the people and against their masters that armed them in the first place.
While I will never advocate violence, I am a strong advocate of self-defence, even though no one really has a monopoly of violence. I do not agree that there is any level of violence that should keep people who have capacity to make a positive difference in the lives of the citizenry, away from seeking positions to actualise that. Most importantly, depending on what and who you believe in, no one’s life is in the hands of any human being. As for me, with my very unshaken and unshakable belief in the power of the Almighty God, it is simply as recorded thus “no weapon fashioned against me shall prosper and any tongue that rises against me in judgement shall be condemned”.
The next issue is the matter of options. Because most of the competent people have options as their skills are required in virtually every area of the polity, they end up along the line of least resistance. A man who is doing well with his business or his profession doesn’t see the need to leave his comfort zone to an uncharted territory. They feel it is too much risk to take. At times, they tell you that you don’t need to change a winning team. My take is that this is all about selfishness as people concerned here do not spare a thought as to how putting their skills and intellect at the disposal of the larger society can change the lives of millions of people. Public service is about public good. There comes a time when a man should pause and ask himself a few questions. The wealth that you have accumulated, what do you want to do with it? How many people have gone to the great beyond with tonnes of money both local and foreign currency? What will you be remembered for when you are no more? Could you have been better remembered if you put your God-given intellect and skills to the service of a greater majority of the people? Sometimes when I look at what our forebears achieved before oil became the mainstay of the Nigerian economy, I begin to wonder how we got to where we are today. The federal government is struggling. Virtually all the states are unable to pay salaries. Infrastructural decay has been our lot even when oil was selling for over $100 per barrel. Our education sector is in a state of hopelessness save for private sector entrance.
The healthcare delivery sector has since gone on retirement. We are unable to refine the crude that we produce and have stupendously enriched a few people with our common patrimony in the name of subsidy. No one talks about research and development, much more innovation. We import virtually everything including toothpicks and pins. It is simply because we had outsourced leadership to the poorly endowed and poorly prepared while the rest of us have gone to bed. These less endowed people now use all sorts of tactics including the ones discussed above to not only perpetuate themselves in power, but also keep the better endowed people at bay. Other than intimidation, they use religion and ethnicity as a tool to hold people down. They are good at giving these a slant that serves their interest when the need arises. The near illiteracy of the majority of the electorate addsadds impetus to these narratives. I dare say that the refusal of the ruling class to properly fund education is one of the tools to ensure that the primordial narratives get sold to the electorate as a discerning mind knows that the hunger in the land today does not discriminate between the Christian in Onitsha and the Muslim in Kano. Neither does the Mallam in Sokoto buy dollars at a lower rate to import goods than the Diokpa in Asaba.
The next big tool in their kit is bribery. They deploy money to buy votes starting from the primaries to the general elections. Because the people have been so pauperized, both spiritually and materially, they want to live for today. It becomes unimportant that the money being distributed is their money. They forget that they can still take the money and vote their conscience like it has been done in some parts of the country. The distribution of money is sometimes preceded by false promises. This happens where the politicians feel the pressure to campaign. In other cases, they simply ignore everyone only to show up with money by or just before election day. No one asks them questions and they are not accountable to anyone, knowing that part of the money they have stolen would be deployed at the next season.
The purpose of this intervention is to encourage more people who are endowed and have what it takes to pull this country out of the woods to make the required sacrifice and show interest in how the country is governed. A few good people have since joined, but they are in the minority. Once we have many good people joining, the misfits that dominate the landscape will begin to fade away on their own. I state categorically, that there is not enough intimidation, there is not enough road blocks, there’s not enough challenges to keep good people away. After all, it was Edmund Burke that wrote that the only condition under which evil will triumph is for good people to do nothing. In the same vain, Albert Einstein remarked that the world will not be destroyed by people who do evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything.
And to those who have arrogated to themselves the toga of “politicians”, these include those who arrogantly rebuked me for intruding in their professional space, those who have no day job but refer to themselves as “seasoned politicians” and those who are now proposing to float a bill at the floor of the Senate to establish “Institute of Chartered Politicians” I will not contend with you here, but will only leave you with this saying “Politicians and diapers have one thing in common; they should be changed regularly, and for the same reason”.

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Politics › I Don't Do Politics Part 1 - By Dr. Alex Otti by comradefery(op): 3:34pm On Jul 18, 2016

I Don’t’ Do Politics Part 1

OUTSIDE THE BOX BY ALEX OTTI

“One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors” Plato (428BC to 347BC).
Those were the wise words of Plato donkey years ago. If those words were true in those days, they are even truer today. Today’s title is derived from a conversation between two bankers. A management staff of a bank was trying to get the attention of his director to join him in prospecting a big government business for their bank. The director retorted: “I don’t do politics and would not visit the politically exposed person”. The younger banker was very disappointed wondering if his boss appreciated the enormity of government and that it is the largest spender in the economy. His contention is that anyone who ignores government, does so at his own peril. But what could the poor guy do if his boss had declared that he doesn’t do politics? Even in the era of Treasury Single Account (TSA), the money must still leave the central bank to pay vendors, contractors, suppliers and salaries and eventually end up in a commercial bank. You may not like government but somehow, someday, somewhere, if not everywhere, you must encounter government.
There is a story told by one of the very wealthy politicians in the South-east about how he joined politics. The chief had travelled to the US where he met with a business associate and major politician in that country. His host wanted to know his take on the political situation in Nigeria. Our chief was at the verge of dismissing the topic with the response, “I don’t get involved in politics, I am focused on my business” when his host laughed him to scorn. “You don’t do politics? Then politics will do you” Just one policy made by a politician may send you out of business. Our chief reflected on this encounter and could not wait to return to Nigeria, to join politics. Don’t ask me how his business is doing, but I can confirm, he has remained an influential politician.
A few weeks ago, I was a speaker at a panel of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) Section on Business Law, 10th Annual Conference at the Hilton Hotel, Abuja. The Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun, who was on the same panel with me, made a very brilliant presentation on the state of the economy. She concluded her remarks by calling on all the lawyers in the room to endeavour to join politics at any level to ensure that the current system is rescued. She lamented the quality of skills in the public sector in Nigeria and argued just like Plato that the refusal by those who know, to join politics is responsible for the poor quality of governance across the country. It was as if the minister read my mind as that was the same message I had planned to pass on to our “learned gentlemen” in the room. It is the message I have also been giving at several fora where I have an opportunity to speak.
I must make an attempt to share part of my little experience in politics with readers.

I had had a very prolific and successful career in the banking industry spanning over two decades and a half, rising from clerical positions to my final job as group managing director and chief executive officer. I had just started on my second tenure when I voluntarily resigned my position to contest for the governorship of my state in the last general election. It was as if all hell was let loose. I received calls and visits from friends, family and other concerned people, trying hard to dissuade me from making what some termed a suicidal move. I will share two very interesting encounters. An uncle of mine (and you know how a close older person who may or may not be related to you is called uncle) called me and went into a tirade. What are you planning to do? Are you out of your mind? Do we need to send you to a psychiatrist to have your head examined? By the way, who gave you approval to resign your job to gamble with your future and that of your many dependants? Responding, I simply asked him if I sought his approval before taking on the job in the first place. That question helped remind him that he was delving into a territory that he was not competent to handle. He quickly retreated and apologised. The next was a delegation of concerned friends who came to plead with me not to leave banking. They argued I was still young and had several more years to give to the industry, given the resounding success of the transformation I led in the bank within a period of less than four years. Besides, they reasoned that it was a very risky environment that I was going into, where they maim, kidnap and kill people and it did not make sense to leave my comfort zone for uncertainty. Finally, they went on, I was not a politician and would not be able to play the game that is required to ensure success. As I responded, it was clear to me that none of them was listening as they seemed to have made up their minds, so I adjourned the meeting. But before they dispersed, I left them with the words of Charles De Gaulle to wit “Politics is too serious a matter to be left with politicians”. The rest of my experience thereafter, is a story for another day.
When I see some people struggle to separate themselves from non-politicians and make a lot of fuss about being politicians, I always try to find out what their professions are. Most of them to all intents and purposes, do not have a job and that explains why they can do anything to remain relevant or win elections. It also explains why some of them do not consider that in any career, there is progression. We have situations where a former National Assembly member would accept an appointment as a commissioner in a debt ridden state.

There is a story of someone who was a governor in one administration accepting a job as a local government acting chairman in another. We also have a situation where a former minister would become a local government councilor. To them, it is about survival. You may now want to ask what these politicians were doing prior to the return of democratic rule in 1999. This question also takes us to how we ended up with the style of politics and the kind of politicians we have been “blessed” with since 1999. When Sani Abacha died in 1998 after the unending transition programme of the Ibrahim Babangida years, General Abdulsalmi Abubakar promised to hand over to a democratically elected government in 1999. Many serious politicians did not want to participate. The reasons included the fact that most of them were tired of the circus of endless transition to civil rule. The other reason was that a lot of the politicians did not believe that Abdulsalami was going to hand over after one year. But alas, he kept to his word and handed over. In a lot of places, the people that emerged could not be said to belong to what I may for want of a better term refer to as the “first eleven”. Having emerged, these fellows used the first four years to, not only empower themselves and their cronies, but also consolidate their hold on power to the exclusion of others. Securing a second term for most of them was almost automatic. After eight years, they used both the resources they had amassed and the coercive forces they had built to determine who would succeed them in the case of the executive, while taking shots at the National Assembly. Opposition was silenced either by brute force or by economic emasculation.For instance, some people had their properties either destroyed or seized while others had their businesses taken over by government or outright castrated. By the time they were through with picking up the pieces, elections would have come and gone. So we had a situation where incompetent mediocre politicians entrenched themselves as politicians and leaders at different levels of governance. In not a few states, the only people that seem to be doing well are scarcely educated charlatans and thugs who parade themselves as “honourables”. It has become so bad that some of our young ones will drop out of schools to swell the ranks of “honourables” since it had become the fastest route to wealth. The unfortunate thing about situations like this is that they become self-reinforcing vicious circles. Because poor quality people are in power, they give poor quality service or no service at all which translates to poor quality results which in turn produces poor quality resources that can only produce poor quality manpower which in turn gives rise to poor quality “leadership” who will succeed the outgoing poor quality people in power.
So how can this vicious circle be broken? Can we really get out of it? To proffer solutions to this, it is important to understand that just like Isaac Newton propounded in his first law of motion, “every object remains in its state of rest or uniform motion unless impressed forces act on it”. There is no doubt that we need impressed forces to break the mediocre leadership that has seized our body politic. When you drill into the quality of the people representing us, you will agree with me that many of them have no business with the places that they had invaded. Some members of our national and state legislators are like sitting docks, making no statements day in day out. Some simply warm the benches while others have converted the assembly into their bedrooms, snoring from one session to the other. The executive arm is not left out as some have no clue about why they have taken leadership positions while others simply lack vision and direction. Some don’t even understand the jobs they have signed on to and are simply unprepared for governance. Meanwhile, we all agree that many of the people leading or representing us are not fit for the roles that they have assumed, but we seem to be handicapped. Still, it is said that every society gets the type of leadership it deserves. It therefore behoves those who know, who hitherto had refused to participate in politics to show interest in how they are governed. This is exactly what took me into politics. This is what should take you into politics. Elsewhere, politics is not where people go to look for money. It is a place where accomplished people go to contribute their wealth of experience and knowledge for the benefit of the larger majority. If that is not why you are in politics, then I’m afraid, you’ve boarded the wrong bus.

NB:

You can as well visit Dr. Alex Otti's This Day back page Column on Mondays of every two weeks to read his articles and be intellectually enriched.

Politics › Time To Save Lives On The Umuahia-aba-port Harcourt Expressway by comradefery(op): 10:59am On Jul 10, 2016

Time To Save Lives On The Umuahi-Aba-Port Harcourt Expressway.

By. Ferdinand Ekeoma.

Ndi Igbo have an adage that says "Life is more valuable than what could be used to sustain it". In the last few weeks, the aforementioned expressway has witnessed series of life consuming but avoidable auto crashes involving innocent travellers.

I recall with sorrow the one that involved traders who boarded a bus at Ohiya Motor park hoping to go back to Ukwa where they came from, unfortunately as their bus was just entering the express from the park, they were involved in a dangerous collision that took the lives of many passengers instantly. The few who survived were taken to Federal Medical Center, Umuahia, I was among the APGA delegation that visited the Hospital to offer support to the survivors morally and financially.
Honestly, if those who built the park had value for human lives and thought of safety in their medulla, they would know that motor accidents would be a recurring decimal there without the erection of Bumps, Sign posts, or any structure that would slow down completely the speed of vehicles coming from the Tower axis of the road.
Unfortunately in spite of the call on the government by APGA since last year to do some thing there and prevent further mishaps, nothing has been done till this moment.
In the last few weeks, Abians have been visited with sad news and gory pictures of fatal accidents on the Enugu-Umuahia-Aba-Port Harcourt Expressway. After the one that occurred just over a month ago at Nonya part of the Umuahia-Enugu expressway involving a bus belonging to a popular transport company with poor safety record and a truck, which cut short precious lives of about 14 Passengers, I have personally seen two other accidents at the Umuahi-Aba part of the road which also cut short the innocent lives of the victims, including a harmless pregnant woman.
Any person with human spirit who saw clearly the pictures or videos of the accidents as taken by travellers would not wish that such fate befalls his worst enemy; it's certainly one of the worst ways to die. The victims didn't just die, they died screaming in pains, sorrow and anquish, of course they left spectacles of fear and agony in the memories of their loved ones.
Driving through Ubakala down to Isialangwa part of this expressway is such a huge gamble with risk of head on collision involving vehicles, because motorists use mainly one lane of the road.
While the right lane of the road from Ntigha Junction ( Comming from Aba) is covered with refuse making it difficult for motorist to manage, the other part of the road starting from Ntigha back to Aba part of the expressway has about four or five road blocks on the right side, thus forcing motorists to resort to one lane until they are nearing Aba. Please take note that I am not talking about the security checkpoints mounted by soldiers.
I understand that the road blocks were mounted when Arab Contractors were carrying out reconstruction work on the road, unfortunately the heavy slabs have remained there long after the contractors left; this is administrative incompetence or lack of leadership vision at its peak.

After the fatal accident at Nonya part of the road, Dr. Alex Otti while commiserating with the families of the victims used the opportunity to call on Abia state government to lias with FERMA and remove the road blocks so that Abians could be using the double lane which is very safer pending resumption of work on the remaining parts of the road, the appeal by Dr. Otti was published in the news papers and aired on local radio stations in Abia, unfortunately the government didn't act, of course two more accidents have happened, and they are yet to act; Are we cursed or we are the curse?
Make no mistake about it, no body is accusing or has ever accused Abia state government of being responsible for the bad condition of the road, but here the government has got a responsibility of ensuring that the present careless and avoidable loss of precious lives of innocent Abians, Ndi Igbo, and Nigerians on the road is stopped by swinging into action to ensure that the slabs used in mounting the road blocks are removed; one hour is enough to do this. Again if the government is sincere and serious, 7 days or less are enough to clear the "Ochendo Refuse" which blocked the right lane of the road close to Ubakala.

Abia has a Commissioner for Works, Perm Secretary Ministry of Works, Director of works in the Ministry, Special Adviser to the Govetrnor on Works. We also have Abia State Road Maintenance Agency (ABROMA), Commissioner for Environment, Special Adviser to the Governor on Environment, ASEPA, T.C. Chairmen of Isialangwa North and South, House of Assembly Members for Isialangwa North and South, House of Reps Member for Isialangwa North and South, Senator Abia Central etc; does it mean these people have no clue of these tragedies? Why do some leaders make things that are so easy look so difficult even when they occupy positions that give them the powers and the enablement to solve some of these problems?

On many occasions Abia state government and their agents have demanded for support and cooperation from its critics, especially the opposition, but when the government ignores very simple appeals like this, one is forced to conclude that it's either the government is making mockery of its self with such demand or that what it actually considers as support and cooperation is cheap psychophancy that doesn't give room for democratic checkmates and observations.
For those ethnic and sectional jingoists who trivialize every issue, be reminded that accidents know no clan nor party, please reserve your ranting, pulse and punder because any one could be a victim.
The life of every Abian nay human being matters, even when you're driving carefully and cautiously, one senseless, reckless, or drunk driver could just chase you to your untimely grave hence the need for us to take the necessary actions that reduce the danger our people face on this road.
It doesn't make sense shading crocodile tears, calling the name of the all knowing God and attributing such tragedies to him when we can play our roles as a government and individuals in stopping it, so let's do the needful today by calling on the government to do its job, by so doing you and I might have succeeded in saving our own lives even without knowing it.
While we pray for the souls of our departed loved ones who lost their lives on this road, let's demand for action from both the state and the Federal government, because Live In Peace is far better than Rest In Peace.

Ferdinand Ekeoma.
Writes from Aba.

Politics › Abia Governorship Tussle,apga Demands Alex Otti's Declaration As Governor by comradefery(op): 7:35pm On Jul 04, 2016

APGA Press Release

Our Position On The Removal Of Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu As Governor Of Abia State By Abuja High Court.

The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) Abia State Chapter received with mixed feelings of approval and disapproval, the judgement of Justice Okon Abang of the Federal High Court Abuja which sacked Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu as Governor of Abia State for tax related crime and declared Dr. Sampson Uchechukwu Ogah the Governor.

First, we commend the judiciary, and specifically Justice Abang for upholding the sanctity of our law which frowns at such heinous crime that retards our economic development, and also for deepening our democratic institution which can only thrive and survive when those who seek to preside over public offices are made to recognize and respect the demands of such offices by being responsible.

Ordinarily, the judgement ought not to have come to any one as a surprise; first, going by the alarming and below standard falsification, distortion, contradiction, inconsistencies, and inaccuracies seen on the tax documents. And secondly, after the supreme court deservedly dismissed the no case submission earlier brought by the accused and directed for the commencement of his trial, which has yielded the expected result, this is a commendable red card that serves as a warning to economic saboteurs, and a deterrent to other apostles of impunity.

However, we humbly disagree with the consequential order by the court which directed for the swearing in of Dr. Uche Ogah as the Governor.
This order which we consider a huge error is not only unacceptable to APGA, but untenable in Nigeria's 2010 electoral Act as amended,which forbids any person that did not take part in all the stages of an election from being declared winner.

Since there is no record any where to show that Dr. Uche Ogah won the primaries of his party the PDP, let alone take part in all the stages of the last governorship election in Abia, his declaration as the governor by the court is strange and alien to the law, hence our humble demand that the appellate court while upholding the Ikpeazu guilty verdict corrects this huge error by issuing the right order which is to declare the candidate that scored the highest lawful votes, the APGA Candidate Dr. Alex Otti the governor, as he did not only meet all the constitutional requirements and vote spread across the state, but even won more local governments than the sacked Okezie Ikpeazu; this is an incontrovertible fact.
Alternatively, the court should order a rerun election that would exclude the PDP and their candidate the way it has been done in some states including Kogi where the elections of two out of the three APC Senators and some House of Representatives members were nullified by both High and Appeal courts because they were ab initio improperly nominated, thus they and their party the APC were excluded in all the reruns.
Also in Abia here, APGA and her candidate were excluded from the Aba North House of Assembly rerun after her House of Assembly candidate was removed for allegedly tendering a forged certificate. This was sequel to a petition filed against APGA by PDP after the 2015 House of Assembly election. We do not believe that PDP should gain from APGA's failure and turn back to reap from its own failure in the same state because the law is not selective.

As we hold firm to these demands, and expect justice in the end, we unequivocally condemn the recent atmosphere of chaos, insecurity, and uncertainty created in the state as a result of the recent judgment.
As a party, we wouldn't support the removal of Okezie Ikpeazu as Governor surreptitiously as we insist that two wrongs cannot make a right. We, however, frown at his desperate decision to employ all forms of dangerous and anti people tactics in remaining in power, e.g, Release of millions of tax payers money with which thugs were hired from the 17 L.G.A of the state and unleashed on the state capital, including the Government House. This is most despicable considering that civil servants in the state are being owed 5 months salaries. We also condemn the alleged abduction and hiding of the state Chief Judge, thus preventing her from carrying out her primary responsibilities of justice adjudication. Procurement of a black market order from an Osisioma High Court against the judgement that sacked Ikpeazu, even when it is a fact in law that a court of concurrent jurisdiction cannot set aside or prevent the implementation of the judgement of another. The last but not the least is the deceitful and destructive declaration of two days public holidays which the government ridiculously claimed was in honor of Late Chief Ojo Maduekwe. The declaration of the two days public holidays by Ikpeazu is to say the least the worst form of reckless abuse of power, as the declaration which was actually carried out to halt the functions of government institutions that might be needed to implement the verdict against him took Abians by surprise, crippled economic activities, and subjected Abians of all classes to untold hardship as they besieged banks in IMO and Rivers for their financial transactions with the attendant risk of traveling on the road, while those who could not do so had their businesses and urgent financial needs halted. This unjust action clearly manifests Ikpeazu as an unserious minded leader devoid of knowledge of the essence of democratic governance nay economic productivity, and as one who considers his personal political interest superior to the needs of the suffering masses.

Finally we demand that all gladiators take a cue from our candidate and the man millions of Abians unanimously believe won the governorship election, Dr. Alex Otti whose peaceful mien in the face of senseless attacks and adherence to constitutionality before, during, and after the elections saved Abia from being plunged into anarchy, by being responsible and await the decision of the courts in the whole matter.

Signed
Rev. Augustine Ehiemere
State Chairman, APGA.

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