₦airaland Forum

HesInMe:
Thanks. The question was a little tongue-in-cheek. I'm not sure most people understand what VFD does and, unless one is a very long-term investor, why one should invest in the stock.

How, for instance, do they generate recurring revenues and profits with all these illiquid non-public holdings?

VFD own subsidiaries that are generating recurring revenues and profits.
For example, they own VFD Micro finance. This company/ business is similar to NPF Microfinance bank. Recurring revenue and profits will be similar, depending on their differentiation, geographical focus and market share.
Also, they own Achoria capital group (Asset management, securities, advisory services). This business is similar to UCAP. Similar trend in recurring revenue and profits. UCAP is way bigger, with higher market share.

These revenues and profits couple with other subsidiaries’ will define their recurring revenue and profits.

HesInMe:
What does VFD do? How do they make/lose money?

The company is considered your typical value investor company. They invest in public and private companies, businesses to drive shareholders value. They make money via proceeds of exits (sale of assets) from these companies, dividends and other synergies realized.

Their notable subsidiaries includes: VFD Microfinance Bank, VFD Group Ghana, VFD Group United Kingdom, VFD Tech, Anchoria Group (Asset management, securities, advisory). Invested companies includes: Abbey Mortgage Bank, Purple, CSCS, NASD PLC , NGX, Veritas Kapital Assurance, and others

Streetinvestor2:
So na loco call out chams..I guess it is him pushing..lol

Loco called CHAMS, but he sold out all his holdings already. He doesn’t believe in the long term prospects of the company.

PuristForest:
Has any one received their allotted shares from Chams Holding Company Plc's rights issue?

Not yet. Waiting on my allotment

Kudos to governor Mbah. Very nice initiative.

crownprince2017:
Remember, he added yet to be concluded right issue which is not going to be listed for 2025 dividend, you supposed to minus that.

My analysis was based on that view. 2025 EPS was calculated based on 7.6 billion outstanding shares. Assuming 2025 fy PAT of 10.5 billion/ 7.6 billion outstanding shares. That equates to ~1.4 Naira EPS

Assuming VFD pays a very high dividend, about 50% of 1.4 (0.7 Naira). VFD stock around 10-12 Naira, that’s 6-7% yield.

ositadima1:
VFD Group’s Q1 results showed great improvement, yet the share price kept falling. I think this is the time to accumulate, assuming they maintain the same total dividend payout: ₦2.50 per share × 7,601,094,600 shares = ₦19,002,736,500.

After their proposed rights issue of 2 for 3 at ₦10 (is this correct?), I expect to see new shares outstanding of about 12,668,491,000. Dividing ₦19,002,736,500 by 12,668,491,000 gives roughly ₦1.50 per share.

Stay with me: if they maintain (and I actually think they might pay higher) the same total payout ratio, the dividend should come to about ₦1.50 per share (probably more). Here’s where it gets interesting — after running a dividend valuation, I arrive at ₦20 (minimum).

With the current price at ₦12, that’s still a significant upside, even if one doesn’t pick up rights. To me, VFD Group is a solid BUY at ₦12 (or maybe a little lower). Do your DD, and keep in mind it will likely be a gradual climb.

Interesting analysis. Thanks for sharing

I doubt they’ll be able to maintain similar payout ratio. The #2.5 Naira (3.2 billion Naira) for 2024 fy represents about ~28% payout ratio of their 11 billion Naira PAT. Also, that was based on lower outstanding shares, pre- 5 for 1 bonus. 2025 fy outstanding shares will rise to 12.7 billion as you rightly highlighted. Half year net income was 5 billion Naira. Assuming they double that, that should put their net income at 11 billion Naira (EPS of ~1.4 Naira).

Assuming a high payout ratio of 50%, that’s about 0.7Naira (7% yield at 10 Naira share price).

I do agree, the company is undervalue based on book value.

@ locotrader, the confirmed guru on Chams. I know you’re no longer in the train. Are you still optimistic about its future, as you were 4-5 months ago? What’s your view about the company and their right issues?

I’m a long term investor. I’m in the train because of their revenue/ EPS trajectory, e-payments/ digital payments growth and west Africa expansion story.

Sunrisepebble:
What was the EPS for Q1 and Q2?
I can’t find the analysis I did on it to arrive at #18

Thanks for this. What average PE are you using for your valuation on CWG?

https://nairametrics.com/2025/06/19/bny-mellon-standard-bank-launch-naira-denominated-notes-for-global-investors/

This is interesting. Looks like Naira stability is here to stay

Umehj88:
Cornerstone declared 27kobo and UACN is declaring 22kobo no be juju be dat.

Please, when is the payment date for Cornerstone 27 kobo dividend?

Interesting

Very nice

Interesting

Interesting

IMF have their agenda. They want to provide unproductive loans to Nigeria by all means. Why would IMF continue to insist Nigeria must borrow money to be distributed to people as cash, when they know quite well the bulk of these cash will be stolen. Secondly even if some people get the money, people will spend it and be expecting more. And if they are not getting more, then what? Do we borrow more money?

This loan will not be productive, but our payment will continue to increase. IMF wants to saddle Nigeria with unsustainable loans. I pray our government push back on this.

Let IMF borrow Nigeria money to improve agriculture, digital economy and other productive sectors. They will not, that will go against their objectives of crippling Africa with unsustainable, unproductive, inefficient loans.

Commendable

Why do we need to borrow money so that it can be distributed with no productivity value? Why is IMF pushing for this? What’s their agenda on this?

We borrow this money, it increases our overall debt level. 2 years after, the money is gone with no way to pay back. Interest rate is accumulating. They force Nigeria again to devalue its currency because of high debt level. The cycle continues over and over. Devaluation leads to high inflation rate again. To tackle inflation rate, we jack up interest rate, leading to loss of manufacturing and collapse in the economy again.

Which way Nigeria, which way to go. I love my father land…. Popular song Sonny Okosun echoes over over.

OkCornel:
See progress update on Tinubu’s eight point agenda as per Grok AI.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu unveiled his eight-point agenda in August 2023, aiming to address Nigeria’s socioeconomic challenges within three years. The agenda includes:
(1) Food Security,
(2) Ending Poverty,
(3) Economic Growth and Job Creation,
(4) Access to Capital,
(5) Improving Security,
(6) Improving the Playing Field for Businesses,
(7) Rule of Law, and
( Fighting Corruption.

Nearly two years into his administration, as of March 14, 2025, progress can be assessed based on available data and developments, though comprehensive, up-to-date official reports specific to all eight points are limited. Here’s an evaluation based on what’s known:

1. Food Security
Tinubu’s administration has aimed to boost agricultural output to address food insecurity, exacerbated by inflation and insecurity. Farmers have returned to some areas due to improved security, and initiatives like the Dry Season Farming program, launched in late 2023, have sought to increase production. However, food inflation remains high—around 40% as reported in posts on X in 2024—suggesting that supply hasn’t yet met demand effectively. The removal of fuel subsidies has also driven up transportation and production costs, offsetting some gains. Progress exists, but it’s partial and uneven.

2. Ending Poverty
Poverty alleviation hinges on job creation and social interventions. Programs like conditional cash transfers and the promised student loans (yet to fully roll out) aim to support vulnerable populations. However, inflation (around 35% in 2024 per X posts) and a stagnant minimum wage—still at ₦30,000 despite promises of an increase—have deepened economic hardship for many. Subsidy removal savings, estimated at $10 billion, have not visibly translated into widespread poverty relief, with critics on X noting funds appear "stuck" in bureaucracy. Little tangible progress is evident here.

3. Economic Growth and Job Creation
Tinubu targeted 6% GDP growth and 👉50 million jobs👈 . GDP growth has hovered around 3% (per X posts in 2025), far below the goal, though reforms like exchange rate unification and subsidy removal have stabilized reserves and improved trade balances. Local refining capacity has increased with the Dangote Refinery and NNPCL efforts, reducing import reliance. Job creation data is less clear—some infrastructure projects and security operations have generated employment, but unemployment remains high at 5% (X posts), with youth unemployment likely worse. Progress is slow and below targets.

4. Access to Capital
Efforts to enhance access to capital, particularly consumer credit, have seen limited rollout. The student loan scheme, a flagship promise, has faced delays, with no significant disbursements reported by early 2025. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) still struggle with high interest rates and limited credit access, despite rhetoric about stimulating entrepreneurship. The naira’s devaluation (over 70% since 2023) has attracted some foreign investment, but domestic capital access remains constrained. Minimal progress so far.

5. Improving Security
Security has seen notable strides. The administration claims over 8,000 criminals neutralized and 10,000 people rescued, enabling farming resumption in parts of the North. Banditry and insurgency persist, however, with ongoing violence reported in 2025 (X posts and Amnesty critiques from 2023). Military operations have intensified, but a comprehensive resolution remains elusive. Progress is significant but incomplete.

6. Improving the Playing Field for Businesses
Exchange rate unification and subsidy removal aim to level the economic playing field by reducing distortions. Non-oil exports grew 6.3% in 2024 (NBS via X), though oil still dominates at 90% of earnings, indicating slow diversification. Infrastructure development, like railway projects with Chinese support, has progressed, but manufacturers report challenges with power and costs. The agenda’s promise of a fairer business environment is advancing, but structural issues persist.

7. Rule of Law
Tinubu’s commitment to the rule of law has been questioned. Appointments like a minister without an NYSC certificate (noted on X in 2023) and perceived judicial interference have drawn criticism. No major judicial reforms or high-profile accountability measures have been highlighted. Progress here appears stagnant or undermined by political actions.

8. Fighting Corruption
Anti-corruption efforts have ramped up via the EFCC, with increased public campaigns and some high-profile probes (e.g., subsidy-related cases). However, critics argue Tinubu’s own past and political alliances limit credibility—X users in 2023 called him "the face of corruption." No systemic overhaul or convictions of major political figures have been widely reported. Efforts are visible but lack transformative impact.

Overall Assessment
Tinubu’s administration has made strides in security, economic stabilization, and refining capacity, aligning with parts of the agenda. However, food security, poverty reduction, job creation, and capital access lag significantly, hampered by inflation, slow policy execution, and unfulfilled promises like student loans and wage increases. GDP growth and unemployment figures (from X posts) suggest the economy isn’t yet on the promised trajectory. Security gains are tempered by persistent violence, and anti-corruption and rule-of-law efforts lack depth. As of March 14, 2025, progress is mixed—some foundation laid, but significant results remain elusive, with many Nigerians still feeling the pinch of reforms without broad benefits. Data gaps and sentiment on X underscore a narrative of frustration alongside pockets of optimism.

Interesting insight

chimex38:
Say no more

https://nairametrics.com/2025/03/12/billionaire-tony-elumelus-net-worth-surges-to-2-15bn-as-heirs-holdings-firms-see-record-growth/

Very very interesting. Tony just cornered all the upstream business to himself. It would be nice to know Transcorp % ownership of Heirs Energies. How much of Transcorp assets was used to develop Heirs energy?

Is this really a price war between Dangote & NNPC, or both companies are just adjusting their pricing based on the drop in price of crude oil. As of Jan 15th, Brent Crude price was $82. Today, Brent crude has dropped, now trading around $73.

emmanuelewumi:
PRESCO

Comparing 2024 performance with 2023 performance

Revenue N198 billion against N102 billion

Gross profit N135 billion against N65 billion

Operating profit N138 billion against N59 billion

Net Operating profit after tax N114 billion against N33 billion

Profit after tax N104 billion against N33 billion

Equity N172 billion against N59 billion

Invested Capital N233 billion against N127 billion

Capital Employed N249 billion against N134 billion

Operating cash flow N129 billion against N33 billion

Free Cash flow N62 billion against N20 billion

Return on Capital Employed 55% against 44%

Return on Invested Capital 49% against 33%

Return on Equity 60% against 57%

Cash Flow Return on investment 52% against 25%

Cash Return on Invested Capital 27% against 16%

Working Capital N14.6 billion against N28.5 billion

Gross Margin 68% against 64%

Operating margin 69% against 58%

Net margin 52% against 32%

Operating Cash flow margin 65% against 32%

Free cash flow margin 31% against 20%

Debt/Operating profit 0.44 years against 1.18 years

I want to believe the primary reason for Presco’s bumper harvest is due to devaluation of Naira. What’s your estimate for Presco assuming Naira revalues to sub 1000 naira in the next 3-4 years?

This is long overdue, better late than never. There needs to be an elaborate gas gathering and distribution system all over the country to create opportunities, and de-risk power projects.

This is commendable

It’s a great initiative, but the focus should be public private investment led as stated in the report, with good government support. I hope this project/ initiatives drives the growth and development as envisioned by government

Oyebanji of Ekiti

9free:
Broker: Bamboo
US Stocks: Drop your question on the US stock market thread and it will be attended to there so that we don't derail this thread.

Nice one
I have below REITS in my portfolio, not bad at all
Annaly (NLY)
AGNC investment corp (AGNC)

ETFs with good dividends record
QQQI
SPYI

I’m curious to know what you have in your portfolio

Omooloriredade:
Teragro is still audio for now and has been for years. They tried out some businesses (e.g juice concentrate making) in the past that didn't work out.

Transcorp oil bloc (OPL 281) is still in the exploration phase. A capital intensive and risky phase. Nothing is guaranteed. It can take years to go from exploration to production, if you're lucky otherwise na to plug and abandon if your find is not commercial. The subsidiary is owing Transcorp sef. By the way, that oil bloc is more than 10yrs old and counting.

I agree Teragro and the oil bloc are part of the initial asset that came with Transcorp, which haven’t paid dividends over the years. Now that we have momentum around Agro Allied Businesses, local Oil & Gas industries… the situation might be different.

Omooloriredade:
For now, please scratch Teragro and Oil blocs from that list.

Why is that?

Princkez:
Please which one is better for long term....TRANSCORP or NAHCO, I need some advice

Team Transcorp all the way. We will start seeing real value In Transcorp when Tony decides to start unbundling all the Transcorp mini assets, and list them on the stock exchange in a similar fashion as Transpower, Transhotel. Or when all these assets start contributing significant cash flow to Transcorp bottom line.

In addition to the listing valuation power of Transpower, Transhotel… other notable invisible Transcorp assets includes; Afam Power (~2000 mw power plant), Teragro assets (Agriculture), Transcorp Oil blocs (Energy) and others. These invisible assets when unbundled, will be worth Trillions in valuations.

This is a great step in the right direction. Devil is always in the details. In what context will history be taught in schools? National history, state history or both?