₦airaland Forum

Let's see how this is going to end. Nigeria disagree, IMF disagrees...who will win this battle.

Difrent:
All statistics on poverty, illiteracy , poor health care, out of school children says they are predominant in the north doesn't it make sense that most programmes to tackle the above issues go to where they need it most?
We southerners proud ourselves as having a high standard of living (albeit fake ) but cry to high heavens when government wants to raise the standard of living of those we agree are living below our standards ,is that not madness?

I agree, those standards should be taking care off, but not with our collective patrimony. Every part of Nigeria deserves its fair share of Nigerian budget, resources and development. Its very wrong to spend resources that belong to the whole country, on one particular section.

The southern governors plan for these social vices by spending significant portion of their budget on them. Hence, reasons why the south have high standard of living.

It is very wrong for Northern Government to prioritize religious expenses over education, health care and other social spending. If the north truly cares about these social vices, it should show in their state budget. We should not expect federal government to spend our scarce resources to address what they should be doing.

Why quote a lot of unfinished projects. Don't forget, Buhari inherited projects from the last administration and some of those projects are now abandoned. Hence, all the resources including physical, capital and human resources expensed are now down the toilet.

Let's leave that aside, and focus on the information provided. All the polytechnics been build by the administration, only 2 are sited in the south. Same for health care centers, only 3 are sited in the south. Same for education, only 2 sited in the south including Ilorin.
When you begin to xray these projects one by one, you realize that ~ 80% of all these projects are located in the north. Is Buhari government of the north, Fulani or Nigerian government?

Secondly, security risk in the country is at all time high. I voted for Buhari because of his experience as a general, hence his capacity to device necessary security policies to rid Nigeria off threats of insurgencies, fulani herdsmen and other terrorists activities. What do we have today? Increase in terrorists activities, being orchestrated by the President's kinsmen.

If a leader cannot protect life and property of his people. If his citizens are being killed like chickens on a daily basis and nobody is going to jail. Then he has failed in all ramifications. No amount of patch patch projects justification can save you.

I pray the President retrace his steps, and start performing his constitutional duties and work for the people of Nigeria.

Our leaders are just playing candy crush with our lives. These people know the correlation between devaluation of Naira, increase inflation and higher poverty level. Work on increasing the value of Naira, and watch how the poverty level reduces significantly.

They will not do, but rather continue to play lip service with what is important.

You want to reduce poverty rate, improve citizens living standards and take Nigeria to a new height? Declare emergency on Naira revaluation. Focus on policies, investments, alliances and solutions that will make Naira revaluation possible. Make it a priority and the benefits to government, Nigeria and Nigerians will remain endless.

Interesting

Thinking Umahi will be handed APC ticket is a dream, and will remain just that. Why is Umahi so special? What exactly has he done to qualify as APC presidential candidate? What about those other South Eastern politicians who have labored in APC for years, why should they be abandoned for Umahi?

Umahi has a different agenda, totally separate from the Presidency.

This is what we need to be protesting

The funds will be shared among them..., these APC politicians and their associates. No transparency, no accountability and they want to disburse 2.3 Trillion naira. Really? In Nigeria? Not possible

hasyak:
"The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Tuesday announced plans for the revaluation and realignment of the naira to make it competitive with the United States (US.) dollar. Under the new plan, announced by the CBN governor, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo in Abuja, the naira is to be realigned to the Pre- Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) regime of 1986 where it was at par with the US. dollar. Consequently, the existing N1000; N500; N200; N100 will revert to N10; N5; N2 and N1 respectively while a higher note of N20 denomination is to be introduced. Also, the current N5 note is to revert to 50 kobo while coins are to be re-introduced ranging from one kobo; two kobo; five kobo ; 10 kobo to 20 kobo. The new plan which will come into full force from the of August 1 next year, is to form the basis of wages; naira assets; prices and contract regimes in Nigeria"

If this was allowed to be implemented then, we will not be having the fx wahala we are having now?

That is not revaluation, but re-denomination. Objective then was to remove 2 zeros from higher denomination currencies. How will this solve our problem? Removing zeros from higher currencies will not eliminate inflation, nor stop high interest rate.

stephanie11:
https://politicsnigeria.com/subsidizing-the-naira-blocks-nigerias-economic-takeoff/

Subsidizing naira by defending it is a sound economic policy for its current predicament. Floating our currency at this junction will be a recipe for disaster. If we float Naira, It means there is a possibility for Naira to trade at 1000 naira/$1. What would be the economic ramifications of this possibility?

1. Higher inflation
2. Higher MPR rates in an attempt to curb inflation leading to higher interest rates from banks (Higher cost of funds for business owners)
3. Continuous economic and business instabilities due to inability of businesses to predict inflation rate, interest rate, market direction, higher cost of business operations leading to de-industrialization and job losses.
4. As a percentage of Nigeria budget, debt payments will increase significantly overnight with lower funds left for governance. Leading to under-development, increase poverty level, more debt acquisition to fund budget and others.
5. Nigerian businesses with dollar cost, debt exposure will overnight see a double whammy increase threat to their business leading to bankruptcy and extinction.

While I agree with the professor that shifting our economy from import dependent one to export dependent is the way to go, i disagree with the strategy of Naira floatation.
The best way to do this is; to fix and improve all the factors that affect cost of manufacturing and other economic productivities. Let us focus on reducing cost of manufacturing single product, then we can begin to witness export oriented economic growth.
1. Let us fix power supply. So that businesses will not have power as 50% of their operating cost.
2. Let us fix infrastructure, so that agricultural products can be easily available. Farmers can easily get products from farm to market, so that we can reduce products lost due to bad infrastructure.
3.Let us fix monetary policy rate and bank interest rate, to ensure businesses have access to low cost of funds and longer tenor.
4. Let us improve our education system, so that we do not continue to push out half-baked graduates. Also to ensure we graduate capable hands for our generation.

Fixing these fundamental economic factors and more will not only help businesses in Nigeria thrive locally, will also improve their competitive advantage and opportunities on the global stage.

RTSC:
Wrong
With sound economic policies, it is even better for Nigeria.

$1=44,000 vietnam won

$1= south korean 840000

Nigeria is not in the class of any of those countriez either in prosperity or maufacturing capacity

Get proper education, so that people like you would stop voting for basic politicians with basic mentality.

Nigeria has been devaluing its currency since 1985, and i would like to believe we've instituted some sound economic policies over the years. Please kindly educate us on how these devaluations has advance Nigerian comparative advantage and industrial development. In a similar fashion as these countries you referenced in your write up.

Very one sided article. This is a clear case of either shoddy journalism or, the politicians playing their political abracadabra again. Why is it that the article did not highlight the reason/s why government have to back the loan?

Nigeria power industry relies on 80-85% gas power generation. Without gas, there will be no power generation, transmission and distribution in Nigeria. Because of the objective of generating incremental power supply, attention has to be shifted to natural gas production.

Developing natural gas facilities is not cheap. Majority, if not all of the midstream companies in Nigeria cannot fund these developmental projects independently. Without government backing and interference, these projects will not move forward. And Nigeria will not get incremental power generation. Reason why government have to step in, to sign the take or pay contract with the producer, to increase natural gas supply available for in-country power generation.

My question to the government is, where do we stand on the issue of incremental power production? Is the gas production and off take agreement relevant to achieving this objective? If the government is contemplating on canceling the contract, what's the alternative? How do we achieve 7500 - 10000 MW consistently as projected in their plans?

1. Take the 5 million. Invest the 5 millIon in 3-5 years federal government savings bond @ 10 -12%. Look for another job to develop experience and expertise, to later be your own boss.

2. Take the 5 million naira. Invest in agriculture crowd funding system that pays at least 15% per year. Roll the principal over every year. Look for another job to develop experience and expertise, to later be your own boss.

3.Take the 5 million naira. Invest in farming business. Be your own boss

grandstar:
courage89
I can tell you're not an Economist with what you wrote. You want the Naira revalued to N300? It isn't happening. You're like a automechanic in a very busy workshop who doesn't want to get oil on his hands.

Please understand that depreciation of currencies are usually due to fundamentals

For instance, the Naira has fallen recently. Why? Because Nigeria depends on crude oil exports for more than 70% of it forex receipts and the price of oil has collapsed. Dollar inflow has crashed as well.

So, let's say $20b was entering the country yearly was now slashed by half, do you think the currencys value will stay the same? . Obviously not
That is why the Naira is dropping.

Depreciation and devaluation are usually symptoms of a problem and not the problem itself. An example is the collapse in dollars available in the econony due downslide in oil prices.

Whatever exchange rate you choose to have, you must have enough forex to defend it. If the government could not defend it as 365, is it at 300 you'll defend it? You will empty the entire foreign reservee and then still devalue when you have no forex again

What you should focus on is how to diversify exports. Perhaps make oil account for only 20% of exports in 10years time. So, if the price of oil collapses, even if the Naira drops, it won't be by much.

Revaluing the currency will simply make the Naira too strong and discourage nonoil exports.

You can't continously have double digit inflation and expect your currency to maintain its value in the long term. If your inflation rate is higher than your competitors, it is bound to lose value to their currencies.

Let's say the 1 Naira = $1

Lets say inflation in Nigeria is 10% annually and 2% in America. This is the annual inflation in both countries for 5 years.

Let's say a watch cost N100 in Nigeria and $100 in America. Since the exchange rate is $1=N1, that means the watch is the same price in both countries--that is $100 and they both export it at thst same price.

However, inflation in Nigeria is 10% and America 2%, In 5 years time if we factor in inflation without compounding to make calculation easy, the watch should cost N150 in Nigeria and $110 in America.

Since the Dollar to Naira is 1 to 1, that means the watch is now $150 in Nigeria and $110 in America.

The Nigerian price is no longer competitive due to high inflation. Don't forget Nigeria and America exports watches.

For Nigerian watches to stay competitive, only a devaluation will suffice.

Economics isnt a boutique saloon, it's the warfront! Japan, for decades was the 2nd largest economy in the world and yet had a triple digit currency.

South Korea, one of the world's largest exporting countries uses a 4 digit currency! Vietnam, one of tte fastest growing countries in Asia has a 5 digit currency, the Dong. The Italian currency, the Lira before the country adopted the Euro was a 4 digit currency!

I'm guessing you did not read the article, hence you would have seen answers to most of your comments.

But I'll indulge you by asking you similar questions I placed up there. I pray you're knowledgeable enough to answer those questions.

courage89:
Exactly the question I asked from the proponents of devaluation. What's the short and long term benefits of devaluing naira? Whats the overall economic benefits? What's the impact of devaluation on employment? Impact on inflation and interest rate? Impact on national budget? If devaluation is going to strengthen our export capabilities, how, which industry? Impact on stock market? Impact on dollar debt payments? Impacts on banks balance sheet?

ehinmowo:
The question is how well has NIgeria faired since she has been devaluing her currency from N1 to $1.5 till now (over 400 Naira to a dollar)? Like the OP mentioned, everything becomes difficult when you devalue your currency. The very production you were trying to encourage flies out through the window. consumer and production price index soar over the roof. The country is further impoverished, indebted, and economically destroyed.

Exactly the question I asked from the proponents of devaluation. What's the short and long term benefits of devaluing naira? Overall economic benefits? What's the impact of devaluation on employment? Impact on inflation and interest rate? Impact on national budget? If devaluation is going to strengthen our export capabilities, how, which industry? Impact on stock market? Impact on dollar debt payments? Impacts on banks balance sheet? They run away because they have no answers.

I'm hoping CBN have these questions modelled in their system, and ready to proffer cushionable measures to protect our economy.

Babacele:
The real policy is the people and how you manage the little or big resources at your disposal to the benefit of the people taking short and long term sustainable interests of the land into consideration.

I agree, there is this culture of greed, corruption, unpatriotism in the system and how that's affecting these leaders capacity to lead. The same set of leaders that are supposed to be leading us, are only looking out for their best interests. How do you suggest we fix these problems?

Babacele:
How exactly did the paper rebasing which put us ahead of economies like SA,affect the lives of ordinary Nigerians while there were unprecedented bleeding of the economy by members of the administration? Preach sir ,we are listening to you sermon.

The rebasement has already been factored into our economy, hence the economic trends we witnessed then. Let's get one thing cleared, just because our GDP of ~530 billion was greater than SA's does not mean our per capital income was. Nigerians per capital income after rebasement was ~$2900 (depending on population) while South Africa was about ~$6500. Per capital income is a better measure of quality of life.

hunter21:
Do you think that by now the base of the Nigerian economy would have expanded more than that $530 to maybe about $2trillion when you consider how much the service sector(tourism, transportation, entertainment, retail, e.t.c) has developed since that time.?
I've always thought that the GDP of this country is undervalued and the economy is undertaxed hence overreliance on oil for annual revenue.
What I mean is if every truck pusher, bus driver, hawker, suya seller, cattle herder e.t.c is taxed, more revenue can be realized than what is generated from crude oil.

If some of those policies were allowed to work properly then, our economy would have improved greatly. Although, not up to the $2 trillion. The economy then, attracts mainly foreign portfolios investments (stock market), similar to what we have today and not much of brick and mortar investments Nigerian yearns for. The rebasement promises prospects of brick and mortar investment, based on our high population and expanded per capital income.

Babacele:
do you rebase with ordinary mouth and forged statistics? Gej that had could no longer pay salary at $70/barrel? You revalue by allowing heavy stealing which is not corruption? make una dey deceive am.

The thought process behind the rebasement was what Nigeria needed at the time. The rebasement captured fully industries that were not included in our GDP calculation. Of course, some unscrupulous, unpatriotic people will want us to believe otherwise.

While I agree that GEJ administration's was one of the most corrupt government in the history of Nigeria. That should not stop us from speaking the truth about some of the right economic policies taking under the administration.

Redoil:
gej tried such Obama and David Cameron made sure they gave him bad names and brings bubu in to actualise their aim and heaven did not fall

GEJ tried that when they rebased our economy to 530 billion dollars. That was a great decision in the right direction. For some myopic people to come around and bastardize the idea.

What would you suggest to get us out of this economic quagmire we found ourselves. Nigeria needs to move forward positively

Redoil:
what you have wrote is what common senses dictates.
but all the Brentwood institutions will never allow that so that with few of their currency that can buy up your entire wealth
ask yourself why is it that dollar and pounds where the most widely accepted currency world over

I agree, all Bretton woods institutions will not agree. That's why I suggested changes by "policies", in a similar fashion as Malaysia. At least stop the bleeding of every year devaluation, and create stability that manufacturers can believe in.

Devaluation of naira has been the single greatest measure and reason for Nigerian economic regression over the years. It's the reason for high inflation in our economy, high interest rates, de-industrialization, high unemployment, low purchasing power, high poverty rates and other regressive economic trends Nigerians are contending with today. By changing this single metrics positively, we change the fortune of Nigeria and Africa forever.

Every time Nigeria devalues its currency, we go through this cycle of high inflation on goods and services. This necessitate government's need to raise interest rate to fight inflation. High monetary policy rates leads to higher cost of funding for manufacturers and other small business owners (~25-30% interest rates from banks). This higher cost of funding couple with other factors of production, raises businesses marginal cost above their selling prices. Hence, reason why they will initially layoff people to cut cost. If that doesn't work, they'll proceed to stop manufacturing completely and focus on importation. If that doesn't work, then they'll close their factories for good and move completely out of Nigeria. We've all been a living witness to great companies who have cycled through this and eventually closed shops. And so many companies are going through this right now.

In the same light, everytime Nigeria devalues its currency, our foreigned debt, corporations debt balloned up overnight making it difficult for repayment. Let's imagine federal government who borrowed dollar debt at 1% from IMF, World bank when dollar was trading at 155 naira. Now they have to pay for the same loan with naira revenue @ $/400 naira. With a stroke of economic adjustment, Nigerian debt repayment in naira term had just increased by 10-20%. Overnight, our debt servicing ratio per budget just increased from approximately 20% to about 30%. Money meant for building power plants, roads, education, will now be used to pay down debt all because of economic adjustment. Later, we will borrow more money to keep the cycle going all over again.

Over the years, Nigeria has regressed from being the giant of Africa where we make giant strides in education, security, infrastructure, health development, policy development and others. Now, Nigeria is a shadow of itself trying to live off its past glory. This chaos started when Nigeria accepted and traded its dynamic economic system for aid of Structural adjustment Programs under president Ibrahim Babangida. Implementation of SAP forces Nigeria to accept loans, under the guise of devaluation of naira, elimination of subsidies and other measures. The economic and social repercussions are what we witnessing today; high unemployment rate, high mortality rate, lower quality education, lower currency purchasing power, high corruption, low security and others. Nigeria went from being the best country in Africa in all ramifications to not mentioned at all. That's not only shameful but very embarrassing to all us.

If we're serious about turning the economic and social fortunes of our country around, we need put a lot of emphasis on Naira. Naira revaluation holds the magic wand to rebranding and improving our economy. Let's imagine what would happen to our economy if naira miraculously increase in value $/300 naira. What would happen to price of goods and services? What would happen to employment? What would happen to banks balance sheet and their risk profile? What would happen to infrastructure and healthcare? What would happen to education and other social vices?

I understand revaluation and devaluation decisions are not made in isolation by countries. They follow the dynamism of demand and supply, or depending on the pegging system accepted by individual country. The nature of countries balance of payment, current account surplus and deficits. The nature of countries gross national products, which takes into account foreign investments income. A perfectly formulated policy that continously increases GNP will help advance and strengthen our currency.

Assuming I'm the Nigerian president today. I'll make one simple, but encompassing goal. That will be to revalue naira by atleast 25% in the next 8 years. This goal is similar to the Malaysian goals of 2009 under prime minister Najib Rasak, to double their per capital income in 8 years, vision 2020. Through different economic and social policies; they reviewied judiciary, security, education, infrastructure and others. They created new economic model that is sustainable, inclusive and high income. They looked at characteristics of the country they are aspiring to be such as; well governed economy, market led, regionally integrated, entrepreneurial, innovative and others. They implemented policies that addresses their economic problems, create social cohesion and at the end achieve their goals of double per capital income within stipulated timeframe. They went from $7200 per capital income to above $15000 per capital income.

I'm convinced by creating a single goal of "revaluing naira in 8 years" will change the current downward spiral of our economic conditions to a positive one. Our current economic system is flawed, outdated and needs total overhaul. Nigeria needs a new economic and social goals that's simple, believable, measurable and timely. While the goal on the surface is just a slogan on it's own, the real work lies in policy formulation and implementation, backed by key performance indicators. A simple goal of "naira revaluation" or "double of per capital income" is what Nigeria needs yesterday, today and tomorrow to retrace its direction, rebalance regional impediments and to claim its top mandate on the global stage.

Hold on ... I thought this was initially termed as a grant. What happened?

Stalwert:
It is stated in the op that it is a grant, sad many educated illiterates are tagging it a loan

They need to publish the details of the loan and stop the guessing game. Its been in the news these past weeks that Nigerian government are shopping for loan from IMF, world bank and other funding institutions. It will be naive to just believe that we're getting this grant with no strings attached. What are the strings attached?

As a government, you cannot just keep racking up loans upon loans for upcoming generations with nothingto show for it. Or continue to get Grant's with conditions that continues to bankrupt the entire nation.

Is this a grant or loan to be paid back?

Interesting

This initiative will only be implemented in the northern part of the country, just like their policy on funds transfer to the most vulnerable.

Very interesting. Would developed economies including; United states, France, Spain, Italy and other major battered economies allow China access to their equity market at knocked down prices? Most especially, very strategic companies within their economy. If not, how would they spin these decisions?

Let's see how this movie unfolds.

RisenPhoenix:
Devaluation of the Naira is a good way for us to step up our exports, because our goods and services will be cheaper to foreign nations. Unfortunately, rather than search for goods we can produce for export and learn about what standards we need to uphold and how to maintain those standards to make our exports attractive, my people will lie down on the floor and start wailing and throwing tantrums; waiting for government to come and spoon feed them.

If this is accurate, why is it that our export to other countries has not triple or quadruple in the past, ever since we started devaluation of naira? Devaluation will not increase our export, it will only inflict more pains and compound our economic problems. Higher inflation, higher interest rates, lost of production economy

Cheaper export and other production comparable advantage will happen when we fix other factors that affect production (excluding cheap labor, cheaper currency). High cost of diesel, electricity, high cost of funding, transportation, double taxation, high security
cost and other factors. If we do not fix and improve on these factors, export of Nigerian goods remains a mirage.

Is naira devaluation part of Senate responsibilities? I thought this is part of cbn mandate. Why not allow cbn to do their job, considering their independence. Are people now lobbying our Senate to achieve this? This is not good.

I don't have any problem with removing subsidy, it's way overdue.

budaatum:
This is the time to free float our currency and be rid of the parallel market. It might hit 1k but will find its level in the end which would be good, imo, but Naijans won't like the shock.

Can you please share with us some of the expected benefits of free float naira? Kindly highlight short term long term benefits in your opinion.