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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 7:39pm On Oct 12

megawealth01:
I don't know why I'm scared of buying DANGOTE REFINERY IPO?

Not buying the IPO. I want to see petroleum products spreads for next year, when crude oil drops to around $70-$90.Global petrol prices, jet fuel, diesel should have subsided, down to predictable range. Hopefully, get a glimpse of their numbers during stable crude oil prices. I can start buying gradually, project into the future impact of new 700 kbarrels facility, expanded high profit margin businesses including; polypropylene production and Linear Alkyl Benzene production on the business.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 7:13pm On Oct 12

unite4real:
the Initiates Plc extended their public offer by 30 days. Most people said same thing. the offer was at N9.50. maybe it should have returned to N3

It never returned even to N20 after this

Please, don’t compare Dangote IPO with the Initiate. Economics, IPO/PO marketing strategies and growth rationale differs.

1. The initiate (TIP’s) RI/PO priced at 7/9.50 Naira, priced way below market price (~13-14 Naira back then.) Compared to Dangote’s IPO priced at highest market price for Petrol, Jet Fuel, Diesel based on US/Iran war. I don’t think people ever speculated TIP would drop below 3 Naira.

2. Their marketing strategy differs. The Initiate raised money to fund expansion locally and across Africa (objective is the money), while Dangote is courting African Army to help defend its interests against pricing, government, competition and international propaganda (Objective is people).

3. Growth Rationale Differs. The initiate (TIP) is considered typical growth stocks when you factor their growth strategies; local expansion, African expansion, business diversification (waste to power) and others. Dangote Refinery on the other hand is considered a typical utility company, capped at 1.4 million barrels production with stable, consistent, predictable cf and dividends for the foreseeable future.

My criticism is with people who try to market Refining company, stable, predictable cash flow company, as a growth, 10 baggers company. Not going to happen.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 4:51pm On Sep 14

Jaakay:
Welldone to the vfdgroup gang. Vfd group has been trading within a range for the past couple of weeks. Despite the intra day low trading price, someone comes to mop up at the intra day high.

Does it make sense to sell some vfd to buy oando at this point? The price apperciation of oando in the short term seems more likely than that of vfdgroup.

Keep your VFD. Maintain a long term view. The real estate business of VFD is due for revaluation. This is going to increase the share price significantly. Also, the company owns significant shares in NGX, Abbey building, investment banking and other micro finance businesses. The growth of these companies should affect VFDs share price significantly

2 Likes

Politics › Re: Amnesty For Repentant Terrorists Worsening Insecurity, Sagay Warns by courage89(m): 5:42pm On Jun 18

I’m surprised that the north are now favoring deradicalization over outright killing or strenuous jail terms, punishment that fit the crime. The north superintended cutting people’s arms, as a deterrence for stealing back then. Kidnapping for ransom, killing of innocent people, banditry are grievous crimes, worse than stealing.
Why the hypocrisy now? Unless the north are saying they don’t want lasting solutions to these problems

1 Like 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 6:50pm On May 24

Pete002:
Has anyone who applied for the TIP RI been credited with their share?

I’m yet to receive my RI and PO

Education › Re: Ijebu-Ode Chemical Odour Incident: Ogun Government Activates Emergency Response by courage89(m): 5:59pm On May 15

It cannot just be methane gas alone. The methane probably has a very high H2S concentrations.
Permissible Exposure Limit : 20 ppm for 8 hour period. A maximum ceiling of 50 ppm is allowed for up to 10 minutes

IDLH (Immediate Dangerous to Life or Health): 100 ppm. Evacuate immediately. This level and above will kill.

Government need to test and confirm presence of H2S. Treat the people accordingly , and take necessary precautions to prevent further occurrence.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 7:49pm On May 10

Streetinvestor2:
Make una leave all this hyping of new companies. When the funds raising are completed and funds are deployed into the business we know how far.
Then we do the maths of thr earnings against the new OS.
Then we know if the price is justified or pumped for a purpose. A case study is chams q1 results. Profit after tax of 188% made little impact on eps
What will be TP OS after everything compared to past OS.How much growth will make serious impact on this new OS.
I have never looked at thr results so I could be wrong I have same feeling for zichis ..abi thr ceos are equally cowboys

This is not a hype, TIP is the real deal. When you factor in the growth in oil and gas in the past 2 years, and the growth prospects based on 2.1 or 2.7 million barrels per day, Dangote refinery, Dangote Petrochemical, and others. Prospect of the mining industry. Also, the prospect of the waste to energy.

If you look at the past 4 years (2022-2025), the revenue grew averagely 144%. EPS grew significantly along the same line -0.6 (2022) to 3.81 (2025) based on 900 million shares outstanding.

Fast forward to 2026, Q1 results normalized EPS is 5.06 (900 million SO). Post RI and offers, EPS drops to 2.14 with PE of 16.8 (2.1 billion SO). This EPS is based only on 22% revenue growth. I expect them to maintain at least 80% revenue growth by end of the year which should increase EPS and further increase the valuation.

Partially dissecting their revenue generation, we can see the impact of their TDU business. TDU KWALE generated 8.5 billion (2025) vs. 2.7 billion (2024), 2.3 billion (Q1 2026) vs 460 million (Q1 2025). TDU PHC generated 829 million 2025 vs 653 million (2024), 243 million (Q1 2026) vs 101 million (Q1 2024).

They just ordered 2 additional Thermal Desorption Units (TDUs), hopefully starts operation in the second half of the year. I expect this to increase their revenue significantly, EPS and valuation accordingly.

4 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 4:41pm On Apr 29

https://nairametrics.com/2026/04/29/mtn-nigeria-to-sell-60-of-momo-psb-ydf-to-mtn-group/#

What’s does this mean for the valuation of MTNN?

Politics › Re: Tinubu Seeks Senate Approval For Fresh $516m Loan by courage89(m): 2:41pm On Apr 23*

Racoon:
This is not funny @all. Building useless roads while people are dying, insecure? Why borrowing to fund projects that are of no economic value to the dying citizens of this nation? God punish whoever put Nigeria in this mess with the plagues of Buhari and Tinubu.

This is actually a good loan, if it’s going to be used for Sokoto Badagry highway. Loans that are tied to production, infrastructure are good for our economy. Hopefully, this loan go through, serve the purpose of constructing the road. The impact this road will have on our economy will be significant. Improve in value of lands, houses, businesses, logistics from north to south. These are pure economic, tangible values that should accruing to our economy.

Let’s learn to separate the whiff from the chaff. Understand good, productive loans vs. bad, parasitic, regressive loans. For example, Nigeria has no reason to borrow money for distribution or for sharing purposes.

1 Like

Politics › Re: 2027: Wike, Gbajabiamila, Others Set For Tinubu's March 31 Marching Order by courage89(m): 3:16am On Mar 22

The game of alignment and realignment. Let’s see how the movie plays out

Politics › Re: Nigeria Inks $1.3 Billion AFC Pact For New Alumina Refinery by courage89(m): 4:22pm On Mar 02

Editorialtimes:
Nigeria Government Signs $1.3bn AFC Deal to Build Alumina Refinery, Boost Mining Sector – The Business Bureau

Source: The Business Bureau

This is great step in the right direction. I applaud the government for promoting this type, and many more of projects like this. I hope this is going to be a public, private, partnership project. Government should not run this kind of project/ business due to the government bureaucracy, politics that hinders the success of similar projects in the past. The governance structure, fund raising and organization structure should be transparent to ensure the viability, sustainability of the project.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 6:31pm On Feb 16

millo:
Hello my people, I parked some money in OANDO last Friday, partly a stroke of luck. Just wanted to buy something very liquid with higher chance of going up than down when I bought it. Now that I suspect it will approach or likely exceed #50. I won't pick up right issue and will probably bail out.
Any suggestion of a more aggressive stock with good prospect? I have a larger portfolio in a conservative, very slow-moving but dividend-paying accesscorp.

I will buy TIP at this price. I’m expecting TIP to issue bonus and dividends to current 889,982,000 shareholders, excluding ongoing RI and share offers. With a EPS of 3.79 naira based on fiscal year result, the company should be able to pay at least 1 naira dividend and bonus of 1 for every 5, or 2 for every 5.

Politics › Re: Nigerians Celebrate As Tinubu Opens Bodo–Bonny Road For Vehicular Traffic (Vid by courage89(m): 1:03am On Dec 19, 2025

This is very commendable. Kudos to the administration. Hopefully, those heavy duty trucks will heed warnings, and wait until the road opens fully.

66 Likes 1 Share

Politics › Re: 23 Suspected Terror Financiers With Billions In Suspicious Transactions by courage89(m): 6:04pm On Dec 05, 2025

This is indeed an eye opener if true. What’s the next action from our government? Will there be charges, prosecution and eventually penalties meted to these people? Let’s see how this movie unfolds

Politics › Re: President Tinubu Nominates Gen. Christopher Musa As Defense Minister by courage89(m): 6:20pm On Dec 02, 2025

This is a welcome development. Let the man continue where he left off as CDS

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 10:16pm On Oct 30, 2025

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45379_C_AND_I_LEASING_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 10:14pm On Oct 30, 2025

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45380_FIRST_HOLDCO_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 10:13pm On Oct 30, 2025

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45382_CWG_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 8:58pm On Oct 30, 2025

ogawisdom:
It's will dip to below 11 because there is public offer at 9.5 and right issue at 7. Investors will take profit and buy public offer. TIP is dip well

The RI is only for 178 million shares at 7 Naira. Do you know how many units they are selling for the PO at 9.5?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 8:42pm On Oct 30, 2025

ojeysky:
Very good result does not deserve a red today at all but hopefully it dips further so I can buy what I had sold earlier

Even at this price, TIP is not bad at all. The revenue and the EPS growth are just too good to pass up. PE of ~6 based on 9 months results at today’s price.

The market potential support their growth rate, at least for the next 3-5 years.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 6:22pm On Oct 30, 2025

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45334_THE_INITIATES_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 6:21pm On Oct 30, 2025

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45363_MTN_NIGERIA_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC-MTN_NIGERIA_INTERIM_DIVIDEND_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 6:20pm On Oct 30, 2025

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45362_MTN_NIGERIA_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2025.pdf

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 5:51pm On Oct 28, 2025

While a lot of us are focusing on the very high capital gain tax, this can actually be a blessing in disguise for NGX. I see the steep capital gain tax as a risk mitigation to help reduce capital flight in the face of economic stagnation, recession, sanctions and protect the long term stability and growth of NGX.

Most times, we’ve been made to believe capital flight that paralyze and damage Nigerian capital market are caused by political uncertainty, corruption, macroeconomic instability including: currency depreciation, high inflation, external debt, high interest rate and others…While these rationale are very valid, they are not the major reasons.

Other reasons that can trigger sudden capital flight includes: sanctions by foreign governments, statements from big corporations or financial institutions and others. These triggers can happen at any time, due to no fault of the government. Speculative attacks from these capital flight will end up having catastrophic consequences on Nigerian economy.

Example of this was in 2015, when JP Morgan removed Nigeria from its index bond. This sudden exclusion triggered significant capital outflows, with foreign investors selling their Nigerian bonds, stocks and other assets. Leading to decline in stock market, devaluation of naira, higher interest rates, job losses and other economic problems. Let’s assume we had this CGT at the time, could this have prevented the speculative bubble of the 2015?

The long term stability and growth of NGX should be the most important factors. Any policy/ policies to strengthen this stability and growth should supersede short term gains of all investors.

4 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 4:39pm On Oct 28, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
Una go dey trust Wale

He is mentoring another CEO on NGX

Agba, say it with your chest… are you referencing Tony?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 3:20pm On Oct 28, 2025

emmaodet:
Iró ooo.
#1000 to $1 kee... Account wo ni kin ko iyen si?
Na to declare bankruptcy be that... Olohun maje

How is dollar revaluation to sub 1000 naira to $1 equates to bankruptcy?

1 Like

Politics › Re: The World Must Stand Up Against Christian Genocide In Nigeria - US Congresswoman by courage89(m): 1:13am On Oct 27, 2025

HonNL:
Mace is a member of the US House of Reps represent South Carolina 1st District

https://x.com/RepNancyMace/status/1982454730849738810?s=19[/quote]All these negative, fabricated stories needs to be repudiated by all Nigerians. When their true goals, objectives begin to manifest, it’s not only the north, or Muslim that will feel the impact, it’s the whole Nigeria. Christians, children, elderly, Igbo, Yoruba… pretty much everybody.

American politicians are drumming the war of sanctions that will cripple Nigerians again: cause chaos in the country to destabilize and paralyze our economic activities, create high inflationary environment leading to unending devaluation and increase poverty in the land.

They want to create chaos in the land, similar to what’s going in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), for them to have unfettered access to our natural resources, rare earth metals.

This is where all Nigerians needs to come together in respective of political affiliation, religion and tribal affiliation and push back on this false narrative.

46 Likes 4 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 8:53pm On Oct 26, 2025

Lofty1000:
Qualification for the right is over
But the right will be coming alongside public offer too Oct/nov

Same as champion breweries

Thank you. My small Afolabi units should qualify for the rights.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 8:30pm On Oct 26, 2025

Lofty1000:
Your new game plan is ready

I think we need to start waking up on TIP
BOTH Public AND RIGHT COMING TOGETHER
YOU Mustn't MISS ON ..........

Right stock at the right time
With the right at ₦7
All ds figures immediately increased to more than double for each ratio

I agree TIP is a sleeping giant. The growth of oil and gas industry (Upstream, midstream and downstream), manufacturing, agriculture will help fast track this growth.

How did I miss the right issue. Have they processed their allotment? Can you please provide more information on the right issue. Thanks

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 5:09pm On Oct 23, 2025

hallysonia:
ARADEL and BUA Cement are carrying my portfolio for the head now. Waiting for break-even on ABSTRANS and TRANSCOP so I can exit.

Thank you @streetinvestor2 for advising on averaging down even though harsh small.

Should I sell my BUA cement and keep the funds to buy later? It's nearing its all-time high. The last time this happened, the stock kept dipping until it rebounded at I think around 150+.

Keep your BUA Cement for long term. Cement stocks should do very well over long term due to high government spending on road construction, increasing demand for housing and expansion based on Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement.

6 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by courage89(m): 10:18pm On Oct 16, 2025

Coolcash1:
Three stocks that will end your poverty.

CWG
Aradel
Transcorp.
Tantalizer.

Ire o.

My top three
1. CWG
2. TIP
3. VFD

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