by Olanrewaju Oyedeji

Fresh data from the Nigeria Upstream Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has shown Nigeria’s monthly oil production has increased by 11 percent to 38.141 million barrels of Crude Oil in the month of October, a development expected to bring relief for Nigeria’s cash-strapped federal, state and local governments in the coming months.

The bulk of the revenue shared at the Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) meeting by the federal, state and local governments are dollar earnings from oil exports and are converted to naira before being shared.

Findings by Dataphyte showed in the month of October Nigeria’s QUA IBOE Oil terminal accounted for the largest amount of Crude Oil produced in October with 5.040 million barrels. ESCRAVOS oil terminal produced 4.532 million barrels.

The total production is a fall from the total 51.976 million barrels produced in January, this year. It is however an 11percent increase from the 34.116 million barrels produced in September.

The details show that the daily crude oil production of the country stood at 1.23 million barrels, a fall from the 1.676 million barrels produced in January and an increase from the 1.137 million barrels produced in September.

https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/nigerias-monthly-oil-production-grows-by-11-in-october-highest-in-three-months/

by Khadijat Kareem

Nigeria’s ranking on the global hunger index has been termed as ‘serious’, fresh data from the 2022 Global Hunger Index annual report published by Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe has shown.

According to the report from the German-based institution, Nigeria ranks 103rd among 121 countries. The country also has a hunger level that is ‘serious’ with a global hunger index of 27.3 out of 100 point scale.

Findings showed the global hunger index used metrics such as undernourishment, child wasting, child stunting, and child mortality.

Undernourishment is the share of the population with insufficient caloric intake, child wasting is the share of children under five that have low weight compared to their height reflecting acute undernutrition while child stunting is the share of children under five who have low height for their age reflecting chronic undernutrition, and child mortality is the share of children that die before their fifth birthday.

In the last eight years, Dataphyte’s research showed Nigeria’s global hunger index has been serious despite the decrease in the global hunger index in 2021 and 2022, the global hunger index still remains serious.

The World food program revealed that in 2021, 7 out of 10 Nigerians did not have food to eat, which reflects the growing food insecurity that has been prevalent in Africa’s biggest economy.

Sources say Nigeria’s food insecurity has been attributed to the growing insecurity, rising prices of foods, the Russia- Ukraine war which has affected the importation of food items across the globe, and climate change occasioned by heavy rainfall leading to floods in some parts of the country.

The growing rate of terrorism, banditry and kidnapping have forced farmers to flee the farms.

Flood has also increased the inability of plants to absorb essential nutrients necessary for proper growth and leads to the erosion or loss of the nutritional status of crops planted which results in acute food insecurity, unavailability of food, and malnutrition. In cases where flash floods occurred, livestock is also displaced or affected with diseases due to exposure to flood water, this also includes fish in water bodies or ponds.

Crops need water and not heavy rainfall to grow, too much rain destroys farmlands, damages crops, and destroys stored agricultural products. The scarcity of agricultural products evidently affects food supply and food availability leading to food insecurity and hunger.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/amid-macroeconomics-concerns-nigerias-hunger-index-hits-serious-level/

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by Editorial
Data Dive - Dataphyte weekly newsletter

Young people, old couples, and their little children trudge on like refugees exiting a war-torn town within a brief ceasefire window.

They push on bag-load of clothes and homeland foods through Nigeria’s departure lounges for international flights every morning, some in the evening, past the various checks to catch their sequestering flights to Canada, the UK, the US, Europe, Australia, Dubai, and the uttermost parts of the world.

What are they running from? What are they chasing after?

It used to be the low-income earners that left Nigeria searching for greener pastures abroad. Now it's the more fortunate ones, young and old, single and married, that abandon ship, and Japa!

Oh, if you don’t get the meaning of Japa, forget it!

If you get the meaning of Japa, continue.

It used to be the bodies of desperate low-income earning Nigerians fleeing excruciating poverty that washed up the shores of the Mediterranean, having drowned to their deaths while trying to cross from Africa into Europe on overcrowded boats.

It was the fate-defying get-rich-or-die-trying young women and men that dropped dead in the hot sands during their trans-Saharan trek to get a life in Libya. Many more are dehumanised by xenophobic natives of South Africa and Ghana, barred by Tanzania and other African countries, or dismembered by organ-harvesting syndicates worldwide.

Sadly, they were all fleeing a plague of poverty at home. They were all seeking a cure for the paralysis of their dignity by a vain, vacuous and vicious elite at home.

So we can understand their desperation, and we can wish all the brave souls of the departed peace and bliss at last, just as we wish all the survivors in the diaspora purpose and blessings after all.

But how does one explain the thousands of middle-class Nigerian families fleeing the country?

How does one explain the rationale behind successful couples who sell their properties, give up their well-paid jobs, withdraw their kids from top private schools, and Japa?

Why are people ready to forfeit everything they are and have just to leave Nigeria?

Al Shaitan, the foremost evil sage, once answered these questions. He said, “Skin for skin, yes, all that a man has he will give for his life… touch his bone and his flesh...”

Indeed, the people’s confusion has reached the bone, as Fela prophesied. And it extends to their endangered flesh and blood, their kith and kin.

There’s a problem in Nigeria. Something is responsible for this fright and flight.

But the fear of what, and flight into what? These are the deep things they all considered before they Japa.

There are just 2 fears: of present figures and a precarious future.

In the midst of these fears, is there any faith in a promising future for this country?

Those who know, know.

The Fear of Present Figures
One little figure explains these 2 fears of the middle-class Nigerian, both the low-middle-income earners and the upper-middle-income earners. It is called the human capital index (HCI).

“The HCI measures key points along the trajectory from birth to adulthood of a child born today.

- In the poorest countries in the world, there is a significant risk that the child does not even survive to her 5th birthday.
- Even if she does reach school age, there is a further risk that she does not start school, let alone complete the full cycle of 14 years of school from pre-school to Grade 12 that is the norm in rich countries.
- The time she does spend in school may translate unevenly into learning, depending on the quality of teachers and schools she experiences.
- When she reaches age 18, she carries with her lasting effects of poor health and nutrition in childhood that limit her physical and cognitive abilities as an adult.

This little figure “measures the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by age 18, given the risks of poor health and poor education that prevail in the country where she lives.”
So this index reflects “how improvements in current health and education outcomes shape the productivity of the next generation of workers, assuming that children born today experience over the next 18 years the educational opportunities and health risks that children in this age range currently face.

Low life Expectation
The HCI for the year 2020 shows that a child born in Nigeria just before the year 2020 will be 36% as productive when she grows up as she could have been if she enjoyed complete education and full health.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/to-japa-or-not-to-japa-1-between-a-fairer-farther-land-and-a-hopeful-homeland/

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by Paul Oluwatosin Akinwumi

In Africa’s biggest economy, Blood donation is supposed to be a fundamental part of the country’s health care system as blood transfusion is often a necessity for disease and bleeding disorders.

However, checks by Dataphyte showed many Nigerians are yet to embrace the culture of blood donation as most donors are still pessimistic and skeptical due to widening trust deficit, misconceptions and biases about blood transfusion.

In 2021, a total of 20,839 people donated blood without being compensated, data sourced from National Blood Service Commission (NBSC) showed. Further findings showed the number of voluntary unpaid blood donors in Nigeria has been on a steady decline since 2017.

In 2017, a total number of 42,384 people donated blood voluntarily without being paid, this number reduced to 20,420 in 2018, then it increased slightly in 2019 to 24,527 and decreased to 22,218 in 2020 and 20,839 in 2021.

From 2017 to 2021, Jos had the highest number of voluntary donors of 66,281 people, followed by Abuja with 15,277 people. Calabar has the lowest number of donors with just 92 people, followed by Jalingo with 524 people.

An analysis of the NBSC data shows that from 2017 to 2021 Plateau State had the highest number of voluntary donors of 66,281 people, and FCT followed with 15,277 people. Whereas, Cross River State had the lowest number of donors with just 92 people, followed by Taraba State with 524 people.

The distribution of the data on voluntary unpaid blood donors by geopolitical zone shows that the North Central region had a total of 83,407 donors, and the South West had a total of 16,366. The data shows that only 4,875 people across the North East and 7,397 across the South East donated blood without being paid between 2017 to 2021.

The NBSC said that only 500,000 pints of blood are donated, screened, and collected every year across the country.

About 25,000 units of blood are collected from unpaid volunteer donors, which is far less than the WHO-recommended 1.8 million units of blood sourced from voluntary donors annually for a country like Nigeria, which has a population of over 200 million people to assure blood safety and availability for transfusion.

NBSC noted on their website that 3,400 hospitals in the country receive blood donations each year.

Nigeria has one of the lowest rates of voluntary non-remunerated blood donation in Africa, and about 90 percent of blood donations are sourced from paid donors. Blood from voluntary unpaid donors is recognized internationally as the safest supply of blood and blood products for patients.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/nigerias-blood-bank-nosedives-on-trust-deficit-growing-misconceptions/

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by Paul Oluwatosin Akinwumi

In Africa’s biggest economy, Blood donation is supposed to be a fundamental part of the country’s health care system as blood transfusion is often a necessity for disease and bleeding disorders.

However, checks by Dataphyte showed many Nigerians are yet to embrace the culture of blood donation as most donors are still pessimistic and skeptical due to widening trust deficit, misconceptions and biases about blood transfusion.

In 2021, a total of 20,839 people donated blood without being compensated, data sourced from National Blood Service Commission (NBSC) showed. Further findings showed the number of voluntary unpaid blood donors in Nigeria has been on a steady decline since 2017.

In 2017, a total number of 42,384 people donated blood voluntarily without being paid, this number reduced to 20,420 in 2018, then it increased slightly in 2019 to 24,527 and decreased to 22,218 in 2020 and 20,839 in 2021.

From 2017 to 2021, Jos had the highest number of voluntary donors of 66,281 people, followed by Abuja with 15,277 people. Calabar has the lowest number of donors with just 92 people, followed by Jalingo with 524 people.

An analysis of the NBSC data shows that from 2017 to 2021 Plateau State had the highest number of voluntary donors of 66,281 people, and FCT followed with 15,277 people. Whereas, Cross River State had the lowest number of donors with just 92 people, followed by Taraba State with 524 people.

The distribution of the data on voluntary unpaid blood donors by geopolitical zone shows that the North Central region had a total of 83,407 donors, and the South West had a total of 16,366. The data shows that only 4,875 people across the North East and 7,397 across the South East donated blood without being paid between 2017 to 2021.

The NBSC said that only 500,000 pints of blood are donated, screened, and collected every year across the country.

About 25,000 units of blood are collected from unpaid volunteer donors, which is far less than the WHO-recommended 1.8 million units of blood sourced from voluntary donors annually for a country like Nigeria, which has a population of over 200 million people to assure blood safety and availability for transfusion.

NBSC noted on their website that 3,400 hospitals in the country receive blood donations each year.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/nigerias-blood-bank-nosedives-on-trust-deficit-growing-misconceptions/

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by Olanrewaju Oyedeji

New data has shown managers of Kaduna Refinery give out an employee loan worth N2 billion despite not refining a single barrel of crude oil.

The key function of the Kaduna refinery is the refining of Crude oil but perhaps, even if that function is not carried out, employees have nothing to worry about, aside from their salary and allowances, they can collect a huge quantum of loans, easy work-life and still get larger than life financial benefit.

A review of the audited statement of the company for 2021 reveals that between 2020 and 2021, the company gave out loans worth N2.171 billion to its employees.

The breakdown of the loans shows that in 2020, the sum of N1.180 billion was recorded as employee loan while another N991 million was recorded in 2021 as employee loan.

A study of the financial statement shows that the monies were yet to be paid back by the staff as it was recorded as “receivables’.

An explanation offered by the company shows that “the loans are interest-free loans granted to staff members to purchase motor vehicles, and are usually secured with the employee’s retirement benefit obligation held by the parent company, NNPC”.

Ideally, if a company does not make money, it should not have excess enough to grant long-term loans to its employees but that is a different case for the Kaduna refinery company, especially as the loans that were given and yet to be repaid, have a three-six years tenor and are also interest-free.

As of the last quarter of 2021, the staff strength of the company stood at 525 persons, a drop from 630 persons at the beginning of the year.

If the number of staff for 2021 stands at the maximum number of 630 persons registered at the beginning of the year, it would mean that each staff member of the company got loans worth N1.573 million on average in 2021.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/finance/kaduna-refinery-gives-out-employees-loans-worth-n2bn-despite-zero-revenue/

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Without ASUU: Ecumenical Measures and Economic Meaning of a Mismanaged Tertiary Education

- Data Dive by Dataphyte

Without ASUU’s Agitations for wide-ranging reforms in Nigeria’s tertiary education system, what would Nigerian Universities look like?

Better or worse?

No strikes, no delay of students from completing their degrees at the right time. Reduced drop-out rate of delayed and disillusioned students. Timely turnout of graduates – Bachelors, Masters, Phds – for the labour market.

This sounds better. Life without ASUU’s hassles.

That is exactly what you get in the primary and secondary tiers of education in the country. No strikes by the Nigerian Union of Teachers (NUT). Primary and secondary students graduate at the right time. No delays. Everyone just moves on in life.

ASUU can simply take a cue from the peace and progress of students in state public primary and secondary schools, and in the few federal unity secondary schools, and just face their work. And if there are challenges with their work, they should either build up coping mechanisms or resign, as honourable people do in other walks of life.

And that reminds of Nigeria’s private universities. Some are cheap, some affordable, some pricey. But they show us the typical university life without ASUU’s hassles.

Better still, beyond just imagining this post-ASUU world of bliss, it would be great to measure in real terms the peace and progress that would be known in Nigeria’s university education system.

The truth is bitter. The lie is better. And ignorance is bliss.

Misconstrued Cues: The basis for undermining Nigeria’s Tertiary Education
Before measuring that hypothetical post-ASUU scenario, when the Nigerian federal and state governments would have successfully starved, sued, begged, and blackmailed Professor Emmanuel Osodeke and his colleagues to maintain the status quo, it is useful to understand why we got here in the first place.

When President Buhari said there was no more employment for graduates in the country. He only flashed the politically correct side of the coin. The uglier side of the coin is that the graduates are not employable. This apolitical part is what managers and employers in Nigeria agonise on everyday.

Nigeria’s education is in shambles – tattered primary schools and teetering high schools prepare students to be admitted to universities with a standard pass mark of 150 in 400 marks. The Polytechnics and Colleges of education are forced to admit students with as low as 100 in 400 marks.

Then the teachers in the Universities are saddled with the responsibility of remedying these unfortunate students.

However the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) insists its members cannot rescue these undereducated ones like these – without adequate funding for the teaching and learning environment and for their research and industrial income.

Some of the contentious issues that led to the strike by ASUU include the non-release of the revitalisation fund, non-payment of earned allowance (or earned academic allowance), renegotiation of the 2009 Agreement, and the release of the white paper for the visitation panel.

Others are: the non-payment of minimum wage arrears and the inconsistency occasioned by the use of the Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System (IPPIS).

Sadly, an increasing number of people are beginning to vilify ASUU for the body’s unrelenting demand that the government refocus and revamp the country’s tottering ivory towers.

Continue reading: https://datadive.substack.com/p/without-ASUU-ecumenical-measures

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2023 Elections: Performance Appraisal Time for States and their Governors – Oyo State

by Dennis Amata


On March 10, 2019, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Seyi Makinde, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the winner of the Oyo State governorship election.

Makinde polled 515,621 votes to defeat his closest contender, Bayo Adelabu of the All Progressive Congress (APC), who polled 357,982 votes.

In another 6 months, the people of Oyo state will go to the polls again to decide who to give their mandate to, and Seyi Makinde is presenting himself again to serve them.

On April 7, 2022, he formally announced his intention to run for a second term as the chief executive officer of Oyo State. According to him, the decision for a second term is to further build on the solid foundation his government had laid, stressing that the “work is not done until all problems are addressed.”

“In the last three years, Oyo State has seen unprecedented development in all sectors with no zone left behind. We have worked hard in all four pillars upon which our Roadmap to Accelerated Development in Oyo State 2019-2023 is built. We are engineering a modern Oyo State. But, as every engineer would tell you, our work is not done until all problems are addressed. We believe we have laid a solid foundation for solving the problems of moving the good people of Oyo State from poverty to prosperity.

We would love an opportunity to build on that foundation. So now, the ball is, once again, in your court. “If you, the good people of Oyo State, desire it, then we will serve you for four more years,” Seyi Makinde said in his bi-monthly newsletter with thousands of subscribers.

As the people of Oyo state prepare for the polls next year, and as Makinde, as well as other governorship candidates, set to kickstart their political campaigns on October 12, 2022, to make known their plans for the state and its people, Dataphyte examines some important socio-economic indicators in the state and how they fared under the Makinde-led government.

Additionally, to bring certain critical issues in the state to the attention of the voters, especially as the campaign season gets underway and the candidates state their plans for the state.

GDP, IGR & Fiscal Sustainability

GDP
The most recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) puts Oyo state’s total GDP at $16.12 billion. It is important to state that this data was released in 2012, and so far has been the only time that the subnational GDP reports have been published by the NBS.

However, the information published on the Oyo State Government portal puts the current GDP at $29.8 billion. Thus, we may not be able to determine the actual GDP growth rate, particularly from 2019, when Seyi Makinde assumed office as the governor of the state. However, to further increase the state’s GDP, candidates for the 2023 election should have a clear economic strategy in their manifesto.

IGR
A significant portion of each state’s revenue comes from internally generated revenue (IGR). It is generated by states through Pay-As-You-Earn Tax (PAYE), Direct Assessment, Road Taxes, and revenues from Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDA)s.

Ideally, this should form the primary source of revenue for states. However, it has taken the second position as the majority of the states in Nigeria now depend on monthly statutorily allocations from the central vault to carry out their businesses.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/2023-elections-performance-appraisal-time-for-states-and-their-governors-oyo-state/

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Despite Nigeria’s fiscal woes, NNPC spends N13bn on entertainment expenses in two years

by Olanrewaju Oyedeji

During the oil boom of the early seventies, former military ruler, General Yakubu Gowon famously said something about Nigeria’s problem not being money, ‘but how to spend it’.

This development mirrors the present state of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) as the state-owned company spent a sum of N13.4 billion on ‘entertainment Expenses’ within two years.

Data gleaned from the firm’s latest financial statements showed in 2021, Entertainment Expenses gulped the sum of N11.831 billion in NNPC’s book, while the sum of N1.636 billion was spent in 2020 (perhaps COVID-19 reduced the need for entertainment in 2020).

This would mean that every month, the NNPC Ltd spent an average of N561.125 million on entertainment between 2020 and 2021, it would also mean that N18.447 million was spent on entertainment every day between 2020 and 2021.

For every hour of 2020 and 2021, the NNPC spent N768, 664 on entertainment.

With high unemployment and overstretching of inadequate and poorly maintained infrastructure, many Nigerians struggle to fathom how NNPC Ltd could live an extravagant lifestyle in a country with over 95.9 million people living in extreme poverty — that is, people living below the poverty line of $1.90 per day.

From a lack of jobs, down to failing health care, failing education, bad roads, insecurity in various parts of the country and an epileptic power supply, Africa’s largest economy is tottering on the brinks, and the situation appears not to be getting any better.

In healthcare, Nigeria has a doctor to patient’s ratio of one per 5,000 people, drastically below the WHO-recommended one doctor per 600 people.

But it is not like it doesn’t have enough trained doctors churned out from its Universities every year. The country’s health sector has suffered massive brain drain with many of its best doctors practicing abroad due to poor remuneration and a lack of infrastructure.

A similar scenario is also playing out in the educational sector, with Nigerian tertiary students having to spend long years in universities due to failure of the Federal Government to meet with the demands of the Academic Staff Union of University (ASUU).

What NNPC’s entertainment spree of N13.4 billion can fix in Nigeria’s economy

N363.972 million for 36 states Plus the FCT

The amount spent on entertainment would have meant that a sum of N363.972 million would be available to each state of the federation plus the FCT, if the money was shared to these states across the two years.

It would also mean that each of the 774 local governments in the country could have gotten the sum of N17.399 million, if this money was given to them.

673 Numbers of a Block of Three Classrooms

The amount NNPC Ltd spent on entertainment could also build 673 numbers of a block of three classrooms across the country, this is as the Federal government budgeted the sum of N20 million to build a block of three class classrooms across different locations in the country in its 2021 budget document.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/finance/despite-nigerias-fiscal-woes-nnpc-spends-n13bn-on-entertainment-expenses-in-two-years/

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by Khadijat Kareem

Over the last two decades, China has established itself as Africa’s largest bilateral lender, helping bankroll key infrastructure projects on the continent.

Findings showed Chinese loans to Africa have higher interest rates compared to loans from the World Bank, Germany and France and other European countries.

For instance, research by AidData, an international development body at William & Mary University in the United states showed the interest rate for China’s loans is four times the size of typical loans with a repayment period of 10 years compared to 28 years for other types of loans and is focused on long-term infrastructure projects.

The report also showed Chinese loan contracts contain unusual confidentiality clauses that bar borrowers from revealing the terms or even the existence of the debt which makes it difficult to track the terms and conditions of the loans given.

African countries with the highest exposure to chinese loans

China is currently involved in 35 infrastructure projects in Africa mainly in the power generation, ICT and transportation sectors. Chinese loans are mostly used to finance long-term infrastructures, this translates to Chinese loans being mostly project-tied loans.

From 2000 to 2020 alone, China lent a total of $159.87 billion to African countries with Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia topping the list of the countries with the highest amount of loans. Nigeria is the 6th country with the highest number of Chinese loans in Africa.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/four-things-to-know-about-chinese-loans-to-african-countries/

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2023 Budget: Nigeria prioritised loan services above infrastructural development in past eight years

by Olanrewaju Oyedeji

Africa’s biggest economy spent over N18.6 trillion on debt services in eight years, an amount which was far higher than funds allocated to education, health, defence, and agriculture and rural development that would have increased the economic growth or standard of living of its over 200 million people.

For a country that has experienced two recessions in five years and has not expanded in per capita terms since 2015, one would expect that the Federal Government would do everything to ensure critical investment in financial and human resources that will help meet the country’s infrastructure needs and bolsters economic transformation.

The reverse has been the case, with the situation worsening yearly.

Dataphyte’s findings showed the size of Nigeria’s public debt has risen from less than N10 trillion in 2012 to a staggering N44 trillion in 2022, excluding N20 trillion ways and means borrowing from Nigeria’s apex bank.

Between 2015 and 2022, Nigeria’s economic managers under, President, Muhammadu Buhari have budgeted N18.6 trillion for debt servicing.

For most experts, the huge borrowing has not translated to the massive infrastructure revamp that the people are told to expect.

The trend is expected to continue in 2023 with the country earmarking the sum of N6.31 trillion for debt servicing and N5.35 trillion for Capital Expenditure.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/2023-budget-nigeria-prioritised-loan-services-above-infrastructural-development-in-past-eight-years/


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Nigeria’s 2023 Elections: On Poll Approvals and Appraisals, Poll Antecedents and ongoing Appointments

by Editorial

While the ceremonies around the demise of the United Kingdom’s longest-serving monarch, Queen Elizabeth, were still on, Nigeria’s political discourse shifted with the result of a controversial opinion poll on presidential favourites in the forthcoming 2023 elections, by ANAP foundation.

This was followed in quick succession by polls from two other reputable polling organisations.

Using different methodologies, results from the 3 polling organisations put Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, ahead of all other presidential candidates in the forthcoming 2023 elections.

The 3 polling organisations are NOI polls which conducted the poll online for ANAP Foundation; Premise Data Corp. which conducted the poll online for Bloomberg; and We2Geda which conducted the poll for Daily Trust using telephone interviews.

In the result of the poll conducted and released by the ANAP Foundation, Mr Obi was ranked first, defeating Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).

Tinubu and Atiku shared the second position, while Mr Kwankwaso came to a distant fourth position in the poll.

However, here is a note of caution: 47% of the respondents were either undecided yet or refused to respond to the poll question.

It has been a few months since Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso dumped Nigeria’s largest opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to pick the presidential tickets of the Labour Party (LP) and New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) respectively.

The All-Progressives Congress (APC) and PDP have produced the presidents and controlled the National Assembly, and governed all but a few of the 36 states of the federation since the Fourth Republic began in 1999.

However, the supporters of the minority parties, especially those of Mr Obi, believe that the apple cart is about to be upturned. The NOI opinion poll that put the LP candidate at the head of the standings before the campaigns formally begin on 28 September, lends credence to their belief.

The former Anambra governor is widely seen as the biggest threat to the candidate of the ruling APC, Bola Tinubu, and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP.

The trio dominate discussions on Twitter in Nigeria. This trend has set the stage for tantalising electioneering from 28 September.

Election Antecedents before the Polls (1993-2019)

There are two reasons the recent polls may be showing a departure from election antecedents, where region/ethnicity and religion have been the absolute determinants of presidential election outcomes between 1993 and 2019.

First, the destruction of the northeast, northwest, and northcentral states by Islamic insurgency and banditry throughout President Muhammadu Buhari’s, a Muslim northerner’s, regime is weakening the religion, region and ethnic card.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/nigerias-2023-elections-on-poll-approvals-and-appraisals-poll-antecedents-and-ongoing-appointments/

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by Khadijat Kareem

September 28th is recognised as international safe abortion day, it is a day to promote access to legal and safe abortion. This year’s theme is “uncertain times call for diverse, collective actions on many fronts”. This year’s theme calls on those who support women’s rights and gender justice to speak and demand for accountability.

Access to safe abortions is one of the factors identified as critical to achieving SDG 3.1, the reduction of maternal mortality rates. According to a United Nations report in 2013, unsafe abortions are a “leading cause of maternal deaths”. The report further warned that “it is likely that the numbers of unsafe abortion will continue to increase unless women’s access to safe abortion and contraception – and support to empower women (including their freedom to decide whether and when to have a child) – are put in place and further strengthened.”

One out of every seven global maternal deaths occurs in Nigeria. Nigeria’s maternal death ratio was estimated at 512 deaths per 100,000 births each year. The NDHS report also stated that for every 1,000 live births, 5 women die during pregnancy, after childbirth and 2 months after childbirth.

SDG goal 3.1, to reduce maternal mortality ratios to less than 70 per 100,000 live births by 2030, currently seems hard-to-reach for Nigeria and unsafe abortions, among other things, is a factor impeding Nigeria’s progress.

Abortion is illegal in Nigeria, permitted only when it is medically recommended to save a woman’s life. Abortion is a felony, and though governed by two separate laws in Nigeria, one for Northern Nigeria contained in the penal code and the other from Southern Nigeria contained in the criminal code, the punishments are similar. Up to a fourteen year jail term for a doctor who performs abortion and 7 years for the woman on which it is performed.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/health/unsafe-abortions-makes-achieving-sdg-3-1-harder-for-nigeria-and-its-women/

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2023 Elections: Performance Appraisal Time for States and their Governors – Delta State

by Dennis Amata

On October 20, 2014, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa formally announced his intention to run for Governor of Delta State on the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) platform.

His ambitions for the people and the state included, among other things, wealth creation, youth employment, and economic diversification, especially in agriculture. He also spoke up on health and education, promising to create effective policies to improve both.

Fast forward to April 13, 2015, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared him the winner of the governorship election, having polled a total of 724,680 votes to defeat his closest contender, Great Ogboru of the Labour Party (LP), who secured 130,028 votes.

On May 29, 2015, Okowa was administered the oath of office by the then Chief Judge of the state, Justice Marshall Umukoro, at the state’s capital, marking the beginning of his administration as the 12th Executive Governor of the oil-producing state in Nigeria.

He was re-elected Governor of Delta State in 2019, and by June 12, 2023, Okowa would have completed his second term as the 12th Governor of Delta state. If his political party, the PDP, wins the 2023 presidential election, he will become the Vice President of Nigeria as he is on the ticket as the vice presidential candidate alongside his principal, Atiku Abubakar.

How well did Delta State do under his leadership? Let’s look at some of the critical socio-economic indicators under his administration and how the state fared.

Why? It is a performance review for a potential vice president who will be in charge of more than one state.

But more importantly, to spotlight important issues that directly impact citizens of the state and should influence the electorates’ decision of who they give the state’s mandate to.

Deltans, as you listen to or read manifestoes of the governorship candidates, pay attention to the following as we head into the 2023 polls.

GDP, IGR & Fiscal Strength

GDP
Based on available data, Delta state has an estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $14.8 billion. Although it is difficult to estimate the actual GDP growth rate under the Okowa-led administration due to a lack of data, the chief economic adviser to the governor of Delta State, Dr. Kingsley Emu, however, claimed that there was over a 50% growth rate.

He claimed that between 2015 and 2019, the state’s GDP increased from N2.961 trillion to N4.471 trillion. Using the average exchange rate of $306.64 for the year, this comes to $14.580 billion.

Based on the figure provided by the governor’s chief economic adviser, it could be said that the state’s GDP increased by 51% from 2015 to 2019.

GDP simply refers to the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders (in this respect, Delta state) in a specific period.

IGR
One of the ways to evaluate a state’s capacity to drive long-term economic activity, like boosting employment and offering effective public services, is through the level of independent revenue it can generate. The Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of a state demonstrates its financial strength and ability to function independently of the allocation from the federation account.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/governance/elections-2023-performance-appraisal-time-for-states-and-their-governors-delta-state/

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by Ayantola Alayande & Dennis Amata

Public display of division among its electoral commissioners and subsequent petitioning of the elections at the supreme court by rival candidate, Raila Odinga, are just some reasons why the recent Kenyan election is far from the perfect example of the perfect democratic contest. Those two occurrences cast doubts on the credibility of Kenya’s Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), with several political analysts raising questions on trust and legitimacy of the process.

What is important, though, is that the successes and failures in the election administration procedures of Kenya’s IEBC might offer some crucial lessons for other African countries gearing up for their own elections.

In this article, we highlight 4 lessons Nigeria can glean from the Kenyan elections, as the country prepares for its 2023 general elections.

Minimal Malpractice

The 2022 elections could be termed the most closely contested elections in Kenya’s political history — with William Ruto winning the election with 50.5% of the total votes cast, as against the opposition, veteran Raila Odinga’s 48.9%. Odinga challenged the election in court, claiming that the results were not “complete, accurate or verifiable”, on about 9 grounds, including that the voter turnout was not comparable with the election results, that the IEBC chairman had acted unilaterally in declaring the results, perhaps referencing the 4 out of 7 electoral commissioners who disagreed with the results, and that the commission failed to tally ballots from 27 constituencies. However, the court upheld Ruto’s victory, dismissing Odinga’s petition, and affirming that little to no evidence of electoral malpractice or failure of the IEBC’s technology was found in the electoral process.

The court’s ruling on the election and the subsequent decision of Odinga to welcome the court’s decision “with tremendous humility” suggest that, despite shortcomings, the election was not marred by any significant fraud. The concerns raised by Odinga’s are normal in a keenly contested election as this but despite the odds, political analysts have termed the elections a success and an improvement to the 2017 elections, which had re-runs and extensive court cases.

Claims by the four commissioners (including the vice chairman of the IEBC), who disowned the results, were largely based on a supposed, negligible mathematical error (100.01% rather than 100% sum of total votes) which were essentially rounding errors. In fact, the IEBC’s final election results corresponded with the Parallel Votes Tabulation (PVT) data of Election Observation Group (ELOG) Kenya — an independent election observation organisation, with a margin of error of 2.1% between both results.

Analysts have noted that the Kenyan election might be the first national election in Africa, where an election management body (EMB)’s results perfectly match an independent organisation’s PVT data.

This scenario suggests that public confidence in an electoral system can be boosted by the public accessibility of real time election data.

In Nigeria, many civil society election observation groups such as YIAGA Africa piloted the use of PVTs in the 2019 general elections based on a representative random sampling of polling stations across the country. As we prepare for the 2023 elections, the introduction of a real time election results update portal by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would help election observation groups deploy a more robust PVT process and have a larger base to compare their samples.

Diaspora Voting

With increasing patterns of migration across the world, the political participation of citizens in diaspora is even more important now. Globally, most countries that hold elections have in place some form of arrangement for diaspora voting. It is estimated that, since 1990, the number of countries that practise diaspora voting has increased from 37 to about 135, with 38 of those being African countries.

In 2013, Kenya witnessed its first round of diaspora voting in just 4 neighbouring East African countries. The figure increased to 8 countries in the 2017 elections, and 13 in the recently concluded 2022 contest.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/elections/2023-elections-4-things-nigeria-can-learn-from-the-2022-kenyan-elections/

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by Dennis Amata

In about 24 hours, political parties will commence their campaigns for the 2023 general elections as contained in the announcement made by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) earlier this month.

For the Presidential and National Assembly, campaigns commence tomorrow, Wednesday, September 28, 2022, while that of Governorship and State Houses of Assembly will kick off on October 12.

Campaigns are a time of some excitement, but it is not a free-for-all, there are important guidelines as contained in the Electoral Act that define the boundaries of campaigns, and it is important for everyone, including political parties, candidates, and citizens, to be aware.

What is the Role of Security Agencies?

Section 91 Sub-section of the Electoral Act mandates the Commissioner of Police in each State and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) to provide adequate security for proper and peaceful conduct of political rallies and processions in their respective jurisdictions. The Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps and any other security agency of the federal government may also provide support to the Police for this purpose.

Section 91 Sub-section 3 limits the function of the Police and any other security agencies during political rallies, processions, and meetings strictly to the provision of adequate security.

Section 91 Sub-section 4 states that no registered political party or candidate shall be prevented from holding rallies, processions, or meetings at any time for their constitutional political purposes.

What Kind of Campaign Content is Allowed?

Section 92 warns that political campaigns or slogans should not be tainted with abusive language directly or indirectly that may provoke religious, ethnic, tribal, or sectional feelings.

Can your Church or Mosque Host Campaign Rallies?

Section 92 Sub-section 3 forbids the use of worship centers, police stations, and public offices for political campaigns, rallies, and processions. The aforementioned places are also not to be used to promote, propagate or attack political parties, candidates, or their programmes or ideologies.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/2023-election-important-electoral-provisions-to-note-as-campaigns-commence/

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Digital Technology‘s Long Shadow over Elections and Democracy
Talking Twitter and Nigeria’s 2023 Elections

by Ayantola Alayande


On June 4, 2021, the Nigerian government banned the operations of microblogging site, Twitter, stating that the company’s activities are “capable of undermining Nigeria’s corporate existence”. Some have argued that the government’s action was not really predicated on a democratic concern about Twitter’s influence on Nigeria’s politics, but a vindictive reaction to the platform’s deletion of President Buhari’s violence-invoking, anti-Biafra Tweet. Yet, regardless of whether the Nigerian government’s decision was reactionary or truly democratic, Nigeria’s Twitter ban feeds into a broader global concern about the big techs’ monopolising power over social conversations.

The influence of digital tech platforms has permeated all aspects of global politics and economy — from being able to disrupt the stock market (the GameStop short squeeze on Reddit) and making cross-border tax regulations more difficult (intangibility of assets), to the risks of data surveillance and misinformation. More worryingly, big techs’ reach far outpaces the extent to which governments and international institutions have been able to regulate their activities. This reach produces impacts in the most unusual ways, raising a fundamental concern of whether the powers of social media platforms could truly be checked by the government.

The consequences of a heavily digitised globe are innumerable — from concerns of data privacy to cross-border inconsistency in data governance; cybersecurity; as well as misinformation and content moderation during important political moments. As a result, governments are becoming resistant of the scarcely regulated world of data assets in which big social media companies are in possession of large amount of customers’ data that are rarely subject to public accountability (for instance, data on the numeric and demographic composition of Twitter users are publicly unavailable, while historic big data on trends/hashtags is only available to academic researchers).

As such, there have been numerous regulations or efforts targeting the governance and economic dynamics of digital tech —such as the push for a special antitrust law for big techs in the US, the Global Data Protection Regulation and Digital Sovereignty frameworks in the EU. Such policies that are generally “governance” and “economically ” oriented have moved swiftly across the global south, as we begin to see a solid policy reaction in developing (African) countries in the areas of data protection (e.g., the Nigeria Data Protection Regulation), the digital economy, cybersecurity, and data sharing.

Regulating the Political side of the Digital

However, despite these policy footprints, the political dimensions of social media impact have remained much-less regulated — more so on the African continent. Yet, the positive and negative externalities of social media on politics are wide-ranging than are often discussed. Too many times, countries focus only on disinformation and propaganda; yet the virtual world of social media has darker side-effects than just ‘fake news’ during elections. For instance, since voters’ source of information has hugely shifted from traditional media to the digital, many risk being locked in an echo chamber, where a specific set of information (even if correct) is repeatedly fed to a group of people based on their digital profile. Combined with the fact that many social media platforms like Twitter lend convenience to ‘brevity’ rather than an elaborate analysis of political issues, unaudited algorithms would swiftly lead to the distortion of political views — increasing political polarisation — even if actors are acting on a factual set of information.

While many of the pain points within each umbrella area above require a complex interaction of government, citizens, and social media operators, the highlights in red suggest areas that require the sole attention of social media administrators.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/digital-technologys-long-shadow-over-elections-and-democracy/

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Nigeria’s Life Expectancy Rates have Increased in the Last 2 Decades Despite Many Odds

by Ode Uduu

Trend review of Nigeria’s life expectancy shows that there has been continuous increase in life expectancy since 2000. This increase is against prevailing threats to life as a result of widespread insecurities and health emergencies.

As estimated in 2020, life expectancy for Nigerians is 55 years. This figure is higher for females than males. It is expected that a Nigerian female will live up to her 56th birthday, while their male counterparts will live for just 54 years.

Different bodies have submitted varying life expectancy averages for Nigerians, however, across all of these varying averages, there is one recurrence theme. They all say life expectancy is improving.

The life expectancy average from the World Bank reveals that as of 2020, the average lifespan for a Nigerian is 55 years, 56 years for females and 54 years for males.

Although this figure places the average life expectancy for Nigeria below the West and Central African region average of 58 years, it was an improvement from the 53 years expectancy rate for 2019.

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the life expectancy for Nigeria was 63 years as at 2019. This is an improvement over the 61 years an average Nigerian was expected to live in 2015. WHO estimated the life expectancy for females at 64 years, while men are expected to live up to 61 years.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/health/nigerias-life-expectancy-rates-have-increased-in-the-last-2-decades-despite-many-odds/

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by Ode Uduu

Malaria remains one of the highest killers globally, claiming the lives of 627,000 people globally. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has identified Nigeria as one region with high malaria prevalence globally.

It has been reported that about 100,693 persons died of malaria in 2020. This figure accounted for 6.82% of the total deaths in the years, and Nigeria is ranked 27th out of 178 on the global scale of deaths to malaria.

However, malaria, though a deadly disease, is only the fourth highest killer in Nigeria. Influenza/pneumonia, diarrhea, and tuberculosis have individually resulted in the death of more Nigerians than malaria.

Influenza/pneumonia led to the death of 207,281 Nigerians in 2020, representing 14% of the total deaths reported by causes in the country and holding the number 1 position. Nigeria has a global ranking of 28th of 178 countries on influenza/pneumonia.

Diarrhea holds the second position, claiming the lives of 144,724 Nigerians in 2020. This figure is equivalent to 9.77% of the total death to causative diseases. On the global ranking, Nigeria is ranked 13 out of 178 in deaths from diarrhea.

Tuberculosis was reported to kill 127,335 persons in Nigeria in 2020, representing 8.6% of the total deaths. Nigeria has a global ranking of 6th of 178 in tuberculosis deaths in 2020.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/health/in-nigeria-these-three-diseases-have-killed-more-people-than-malaria/

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by Ode Uduu

Malaria remains one of the highest killers globally, claiming the lives of 627,000 people globally. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has identified Nigeria as one region with high malaria prevalence globally.

It has been reported that about 100,693 persons died of malaria in 2020. This figure accounted for 6.82% of the total deaths in the years, and Nigeria is ranked 27th out of 178 on the global scale of deaths to malaria.

However, malaria, though a deadly disease, is only the fourth highest killer in Nigeria. Influenza/pneumonia, diarrhea, and tuberculosis have individually resulted in the death of more Nigerians than malaria.

Influenza/pneumonia led to the death of 207,281 Nigerians in 2020, representing 14% of the total deaths reported by causes in the country and holding the number 1 position. Nigeria has a global ranking of 28th of 178 countries on influenza/pneumonia.

Diarrhea holds the second position, claiming the lives of 144,724 Nigerians in 2020. This figure is equivalent to 9.77% of the total death to causative diseases. On the global ranking, Nigeria is ranked 13 out of 178 in deaths from diarrhea.

Tuberculosis was reported to kill 127,335 persons in Nigeria in 2020, representing 8.6% of the total deaths. Nigeria has a global ranking of 6th of 178 in tuberculosis deaths in 2020.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/health/in-nigeria-these-three-diseases-have-killed-more-people-than-malaria/

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by Khadijat Kareem

Inflation has constantly been on the increase, the most recent publication by NBS shows that Nigeria’s headline inflation hit a 17-year high at 20.52% showing a year-on-year increase of 3.52% and a month-on-month increase of 1.77%.

The rising inflation rate has in turn affected the purchasing power of consumers and also affected the Naira value. Long-term cash flows and fixed assets perform poorly when inflation is rising, thereby reducing the present value of future returns on investment.

Inflation hinders the prediction of the certainty of prices of goods and services in the future, and the uncertainty of future rates of inflation/prices of goods and services discourages potential investors and reduces the efficiency of investments.

Private Investment in Nigeria Contributed 11.2% of the Total GDP in 2022.

Private investments in Nigeria range from goods and services to bonds, assets, and bonds owned by private individuals. Private investment increases the rate of capital formation, increases production capacity, and training of labour, and overall, boosts the economy.

Nigeria has not recorded an increase in private investment as private investment has continued to decline from 2020 till date, a decline driven by the impact of COVID-19, economic recession, and majorly inflation. The decrease in private investment might lead to monopoly, lack of competitiveness, lower living standards due to lower remittances of households, and a less productive economy in the long run.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/economy/nigerias-inflation-continues-to-rise-as-private-investment-decreases/

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The Curious Case of Ekiti State Government’s N90 million Contract for Transporting Furniture, Appliances

by Olanrewaju Oyedeji

A review of the Ekiti state open contracting portal has shown that the state awarded a contract of N90 million for transportation, relocation of furniture and equipment from the Ekiti house in Abuja to the state capital Ado-Ekiti.

Details on the state open contracting portal shows that the contract, awarded to Onward properties limited, a company the Corporate Affairs Commission listed as inactive, was awarded on September, 24, 2020.

The contract did not state the quantity of furniture and appliances that needed to be moved, however N90 million could transport 1,200 persons from Abuja to Akure at the current hiked airfare cost of 75,000 per passenger. If the journey was by road, the same amount will transport 6,766 persons from Abuja to Lagos, at the current road transportation price of N13,300 per person.

If the state had decided to rent a cargo plane to transport and relocate the furniture and appliances, one of the world’s most luxurious cargo plane operators rents out its Cargo plane of 7,600KG at 10,500 Euros per hour, at the current rate of N420 to one Euro, the government would have spent N4.4 million naira to transport the furniture, appliances from Abuja to Akure, a neighbouring state to Ekiti with an airport which has an estimated travel time of 50 minutes by air. Even if it took 2 hours, its still less than 10 million naira.

Even if the government decides that the furniture and appliances are large enough to require five cargo planes that have 7,600kg capacity each and still pay double the rate that is obtainable at one of the world’s luxurious charter, the state would have spent N44 million.

This would leave an extra balance of N46 million unspent.

If the state had decided to buy a new Trailer to transport the furniture and Appliances from the state house in Abuja to the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, from where it would connect the chartered cargo plane(s) (whether one or five chartered cargo planes), it would have spent between N15million-N25 million on Purchase of a brand new Trailer.

If the maximum amount of N25 Million was spent on Trailer, this would still leave N19 million unspent. Assuming the state decides to engage 50 persons who will lift the unknown quantity of ‘furniture and appliances’ from inside the Ekiti state house to the ‘Newly bought truck’ waiting just outside the building and decides to pay them N100,000 each for workmanship, the state would have spent N5 Million and still have N14 million unspent.

Dataphyte reached out to Onward Properties, the company that won the contract, asking for a quotation it would cost to convey furniture and appliances but the respondent at the end of the call stated that the organisation does not offer such service, thus, he would not know. When told that the firm offered a similar service to Ekiti state government, the respondent stated that “that was when my dad was alive” and dropped the call afterwards.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/public-procurement/the-curious-case-of-ekiti-state-governments-n90-million-contract-for-transporting-furniture-appliances/

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Ekiti State Government Awards over N8.6 billion Contracts to Executive Secretaries and Perm Secs

by Olanrewaju Oyedeji

A review of the Ekiti state Open Contracting portal has revealed that the Ekiti state government awarded contracts worth over N8.6 billion without disclosing the contractors for these projects.

The contracts, awarded between 2017 and 2022, number up to over four hundred. The review shows that these contracts have ‘Executive Secretaries and Permanent Secretaries’ as the contractors.

Contracts listed against ‘permanent secretaries’ number up to a hundred and totalled over N6.029 billion while those listed in favour of ‘executive secretaries’ stood at N2.571billion from about three hundred projects.

In one instance, details on the open contracting portal of the state show that a purchase of textbooks worth N72 million by the state was awarded to ‘permanent secretary’ while the class of the organisation that won the contract was listed as “Government organisation”. The contract also did not stipulate the number of textbooks to be purchased for the amount.

In another instance, the renovation exercise for seven general hospitals in the state to the tune of N350 million awarded in 2021 did not have the contractors that carried out the renovations listed, instead the contractor name was listed as ‘permanent secretary’ while the class of the organisation in each case was stated as ‘government organisation”.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/public-procurement/ekiti-state-government-awards-over-n8-6-billion-contracts-to-executive-secretaries-and-perm-secs/

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by Olanrewaju Oyedeji

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company limited (NNPCL), according to its August 2022 FAAC report, spent the sum of N54.663 billion on rehabilitating refineries in the country between January and July 2022.

The highest amount was spent in June, when the sum of N18.221 billion was spent on rehabilitating refineries.

Despite these investments in the health of refineries, Nigeria’s refineries have continued to suffer a mysterious ailment that has defied the billions spent on them. The refineries’ outputs remain low.

Warri refinery, Kaduna refinery and Port Harcourt refinery are some of the major refineries in the country. These three refineries have a combined capacity of producing over 400,000 Barrels per day but have failed to live up their capacity for years.

Nigeria still relies heavily on refined petroleum importation to meet its daily needs, and the failure to refine crude at home has left the country at the mercy of international market forces and allowed the ball and chain of subsidy to remain, gulping huge revenue that is not justifiable compared to the income of the sale of crude. Between 2015 and 2019, Nigeria spent a sum of $37.85 billion dollars on petroleum importation.

https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/finance/nnpcl-has-spent-n54-billion-on-its-ever-ailing-refineries-in-seven-months/

One Litre of Fuel in Nigeria to Cost N462/litre Without Subsidy? Unlikely
A DataCheck on NNPCLs Claims

by Olanrewaju Oyedeji

On September 1, the head of the Nigerian Customs accused the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited of incorrect daily petroleum consumption figures. The bone of contention was the daily consumption figures and the corresponding rising subsidy bill. There also might have been a merry-go-round about who is to blame for oil theft but the subsidy bill and daily consumption figures were front and centre.

The Customs boss, Hameed Ali, was quoted as saying; “I remember that last year we spoke about this (subsidy). Unfortunately, this year, we are talking about subsidies again. The over N11 trillion we are going to take as debt, more than half of it is going for subsidy. The issue is not about the smuggling of petroleum products. I have always argued this with NNPC,” If we are consuming 60 million litres of PMS per day, why would you allow the release of 98 million litres per day? If you know this is our planned consumption, why would you allow that release?” the Customs boss said.

In reaction, the NNPCL defended the daily petroleum consumption figures, insisting that daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, across the country was 68 million as against Customs’ claim of 60 million and even offered to submit itself for forensic audit of its PMS supply and subsidy management.

The Oil Company went on to state that ‘N297 was spent per litre’ on petroleum subsidy between January and August 2022. And then stated that without subsidy fuel pump price will be N462/litre.

Naturally, this kind of news further drives up anxiety and leads to speculations among Nigerians who are already dealing with high costs of everything. It might reinforce fear among citizens on the removal of subsidies.

Arguments, counter arguments and speculations aside, will the pump price for petrol really be N462/litre without subsidy?

How factual are the claims by NNPC about subsidy per litre, and how much it will cost to subsidise at either the widely circulated 60 million or 68 million consumption figures?

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/extractive/oil-and-gas/one-litre-of-fuel-in-nigeria-to-cost-n462-litre-without-subsidy-unlikely/

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by Tope Moses

On the 19th of April 2022, the super mushshak trainer aircraft with two military officers on board crashed at Kaduna with no survivors.

This is one of the 14 NAF aircraft crashes between 2015 and 2022. These aircraft crashes have led to the loss of 15 NAF aircraft worth an estimated $135.13 million. Apart from the financial loss, it has also resulted in the loss of top military personnel.

The Nigerian Air Force is the youngest arm of the Nigerian military and one of the largest in Africa. Nigerian air force ranked 67th in the global air power ranking with a 17.9 true value rating (TvR).

Under the Buhari-led administration, the Nigeria Air force inducted 38 new aircraft into its fleets to strengthen its air power. From 2015 to 2021, the serviceability status increased from 35% in 2015 to about 72% in September 2021.

Data from the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA) shows that the service has 138 total units in its active aircraft inventory, with excellent readiness units of 110 aircraft, assuming a readiness rate of 80.0%.

The loss of aircrafts could likely impact the country’s future ratings.

Of the 15 incidents, the reported cause of the crash was only available in 12 crashes. Ten out of the twelve crashes were in a non-combatant situation which equals non-combatant crashes of 83.3% out of crashes that took place in the period under review.

https://www.dataphyte.com/aviation/nigeria-lost-naf-aircrafts-worth-135-13-million-to-crashes-in-six-years/

2023 Elections: Inequality and Harsh Economic Realities May Drive Vote Buying Behaviours

by Khadijat Kareem

The world inequality report of 2022 shows that an average Nigerian earns N1.89 million ($4,510) annually, with the bottom 50% of the total population making N587,583 ($1,400) annually.

Nigeria’s inequality levels have been relatively high since the 1990s, and is similar to that of China, lower than that of Europe and North America. The inequality levels in Nigeria which is measured in terms of income, wealth and gender lean towards poverty. The world bank in its poverty and inequality report for Nigeria held that 4 out of 10 Nigerians are currently living in poverty and 39.1% of Nigerians live below the world poverty line of $1.90 per day.

Does Inequality Drive Vote Buying?

Vote buying is the act of offering money, items, goods or favors in exchange for the vote of a voter in an election. Research across many developing economies and young democracies have drawn correlations between poverty and vote buying. One research that covers 18 countries including Nigeria, reads in part “that vote buying parties systematically target specific groups in the electorate based on their socio-economic characteristics. Poverty in particular has been emphasized as an important source of vote buying that enables political parties to exploit the material needs of deprived voter groups by trading rewards for votes”.

While poverty is not the singular reason why people sell their votes, it is a very prominent factor.

Another research took a critical look at vote buying activities in the 2015 and 2019 elections and concludes that “the country is practising a “patronage democracy”, a carrot and stick relationship between vote-buyers and vote-sellers in consolidation of commercialisation of the polity. The reports lists other reasons that influence the voting choice of the electorates to include unemployment and illiteracy both of which compound individual poverty.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/2023-elections-inequality-and-harsh-economic-realities-may-drive-vote-buying-behaviours/

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by Dennis Amata

The total value of capital importation into Nigeria in the second quarter of 2022 was only $1.56 billion. This is a 2.40% decrease from the $1.57 billion recorded in the first quarter of the year.

However, year-on-year, capital importation increased by 75.34%. This is disclosed in the Q2 2022 capital importation report published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.

Capital importation is foreign investments into a nation’s economy and are necessary for economic growth as it enables rapid investment.

In Q2 2022, the total capital import stood at $1.56 billion which is a drop from Q1, 2022.

Of the 3 categories of investment that make up capital importation, Portfolio Investment, accounted for 49.33% of the total value of capital importation that came into Nigeria in the second quarter, while other investment contributed 41.09%.

On the other hand, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) accounted for only 9.58% of the total capital import.

It is worth noting that only “other investments” recorded positive growth in the second quarter.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/finance/in-q2-2022-capital-importation-into-nigeria-dropped-by-2-40/

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by Dennis Amata

A new report by Dataphyte, a leading media research and data analytics organisation has revealed that commercial banks’ loans and advances to the agricultural sector have remained low in the last 7 years even with several interventions by the government through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to boost loans to the sector.

According to the report titled “From Farm to Future: Thoughts on Food Security, Farmers’ Prosperity and Fiscal Stability in Nigeria” the agricultural sector employs 14.84 million persons and stands as the sector with the highest number of employees in Nigeria.

Aside from the sector being the largest employer in Nigeria, it also accounts for an estimated 26.84% of economic activities in the country. In fact, the sector is considered by President Muhammadu Buhari as the key to Nigeria’s economic diversification strategy. This alone shows how important the agricultural sector is.

For a sector this important, commercial banks’ loans and advances to the agriculture sector remains low.

Between 2014 and 2021, the highest commercial bank loan the sector had gotten in 7 years was N1.04 trillion in 2020 which was only 5.15% of the total commercial bank loan.

In 2014, a total of 12.89 trillion was released as commercial bank loans. Of this sum, the agricultural sector received only N478.91 billion, representing 3.72% of the entire commercial bank loans.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/agriculture/commercial-bank-loans-to-agric-sector-in-nigeria-is-poor-less-than-6-in-7-years/

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Get the full "Farm to Future" brief here: https:///dataphyte?product=from-farm-to-future

Dataphyte Releases “Farm to Future”; a brief on the Challenges and Potentials of Nigeria’s Agricultural Sector

by Editorial

Dataphyte has released its latest research brief which provides an in-depth overview and appraisal of Nigeria’s Agricultural sector. 

The brief titled “From Farm to Future: Thoughts on Food Security, Farmers’ Prosperity and Fiscal Stability in Nigeria” critically examined in detail the challenges facing the Agricultural sector, how these affect productivity in the sector and how the challenges ultimately impact food availability and prices.

The economic dilemma of the country’s agriculture sector is x-rayed; accounting for the largest proportion (31%) of Nigeria’s labour force and contributing 89% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), yet the sector only contributes 0.38% of federal government revenues with a trade deficit of N146 billion as of 2021.

The research brief also examines the various government interventions through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) like the Anchor Borrower’s Programme and the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF). These appear not to have produced the desired outcome, noting that commercial bank loans and advances to the agriculture sector have remained low even though the sector accounts for about 26.84% of economic activities in Nigeria.

To address the challenge of low commercial banks’ loans and advances to the sector and other challenges highlighted in the research brief, the report recommends policy interventions that should be pursued consistently as well as leveraging on technology to fully maximise the potential of the agricultural sector.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/agriculture/dataphyte-releases-farm-to-future-a-brief-on-the-challenges-and-potentials-of-nigerias-agricultural-sector/

cc: lalasticlala, seun, onila, farano, mynd44, prettythicksme

Get the full "Farm to Future" brief here: https:///dataphyte?product=from-farm-to-future

Ondo Alters Project Delivery Dates for Contracts Worth over N98 Billion After Dataphyte’s Report

by Olanrewaju Oyedeji

On July 7, 2022, Dataphyte published a report revealing that despite a N202 million contract awarded for renovation of the Ondo State Radiovision Corporation building, the contract has not been executed despite having a twelve months execution period from March, 2019.

Before the report was published, Dataphyte reached out to different officials in the government, seeking explanations as to why the project had been delayed. 

After our enquiries, the contract period on the Ondo state open contracting portal for renovating the Radiovision building was changed from 12 months to four years and four months, with an expectation to conclude the contract by August 2023.

But the alterations did not stop at the Radiovision project, delivery dates for several other uncompleted projects, running into billions of naira, were altered on the open contracting portal.

For instance, the construction of flyover across Sagamu-Benin expressway worth N5.047 billion was earmarked for a duration of twelve months from 7th January, 2019, which would mean that the completion should happen by February, 2020, however the delivery date was changed to 20th of July, 2023. A three-year addition to the earlier delivery date.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/public-procurement/ondo-alters-project-delivery-dates-for-contracts-worth-over-n98-billion-after-dataphytes-report/

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Millions Spent on PHCs Yet 369 lives lost to Cholera Outbreak in 2021 in Kano State

by Arinze Chijioke

In this investigation, Arinze Chijioke looks at how billions of naira supposedly invested on primary healthcare and epidemic preparedness by the Kano state government failed to save lives during the outbreak of Cholera in the state.

Although he was the third child in a family of seven, Aminu Ashiru knew too well that the bulk of the responsibility of caring for his aged mother and siblings after his father’s demise in 2016 rested on his shoulders. While he waited for his certificate, upon graduation from the Federal College of Education, Bichi, he started a phone business and catered for his family with the little he made.

“The hope was that after the result comes out, he will get a better job and give the family a good life, he was our light,” Ayuba, younger brother to Ashiru said outside their compound in Kanawa, one of the communities in Bichi Local Government Area (LGA) in Kano state.

Sadly, all of that didn’t last long as Ashiru died in the heat of the Cholera outbreak that claimed hundreds of lives in Kano state. He died in August 2021 after a meeting with his friends at 8 pm.

As the meeting progressed, he started complaining that his stomach was rumbling and that he needed to go home. His younger brother and some friends accompanied him and when they got home, Aminu started stooling.

“No one knew what the problem was and we did not know what to do. We prayed that he would get better but it got worse and this time, he started vomiting too,” Ayuba told Solacebase.

Unknown to the family, it was cholera. Although they did not know what it was, they knew he needed medical attention. Sadly, Kanawa did not have any primary healthcare centre to attend to him.

Continue reading: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/millions-spent-on-phcs-yet-369-lives-lost-to-cholera-outbreak-in-2021-in-kano-state/

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At Garfa PHC, patients wait for health workers who come from far distances because they do not have a place to stay inside the hospital.