₦airaland Forum

givedemwotowoto:
This is the biggest mistake of the Tinubu government!

Dangote will lose a lot of money but he has a voice in the international and local business community

Foreign investors will be looking for a distance knowing it could be them next. Already they lost 60% of their investments when Tinubu announced the floating of Naira

I don't see why you think the President should be blamed.

You mean he should have granted Dangote refinery the sole and exclusive right to sell petrol and diesel in Nigeria?

Do you know any country in the world where a private company is the sole supplier of refined petroleum products?

What do you think would happen to the price of rice if only one private company has the right to sell rice in Nigeria. We will all be at the mercy of that company as it will increase prices as it pleases.

I am sure you would be amongst those who would turn around and blame the President for putting the control of sale of rice in the hands of a single company.

You people blame the President for everything.

The thing with refineries all over the world is the margins (profit) are usually very small.

It is a tough business to be in, especially if you have to compete with imports from other refineries.

I suspect Mr Dangote assumed he would have the entire Nigerian market to himself so that he would have more flexibility to dictate price.

With the government not buying into that agenda, he will find himself in a tough competition.

That's even before government 's own refineries start producing. The government will be under pressure to sell at a cheaper price, and Dangote refinery may not be able to compete.

We wait and see how all these play out.

'Ebidta contribution from Dangote Oil Refinery has been FAR BELOW our previous expectation'.

In layman's language, it means the refinery is not as profitable as expected.

On top of that, there is imminent debt repayment around the corner.

Mr Dangote is in a bit of trouble.

Now I understand why he has been unusually agitated in recent months.

villagereporter:
.

Oga I beg keep quiet. The plague in aso rock said one the primary aim of removing fuel subsidy i" he can't continue to subsidize for our neighbors" but today I can tell you the people smuggling this product are nscdc, police, customs and soldiers. I dare you to come to Idiroko border, don't pass through the main gate but bush path and motor cycle and you will keep for this country.

Things are more complex than you realise.

The government is still subsidising fuel, albeit partially. That is why in my previous comments, I used the words 'full subsidy' to distinguish the current 'partial subsidy'.

If the government is not subsidising at all, fuel price will be above N1200.

Even with partial subsidy, our fuel is still cheaper than in neighbouring countries, thus encouraging smuggling.

The government can't win.

If it stops partial fuel subsidy, smuggling will reduce significantly or stop, but Nigerians can't afford N1200 fuel price. So, the government have to continue to try and keep the price not too high, but that means smuggling will continue.

So, you see, running a country like Nigeria is not easy.

In any case, if customs officials are aiding smuggling, what can a President do. Even if you change the officials there every month, the new ones will also be corrupt.

It is an endemic Nigerian problem.

press9jatv:
if Tinubu tried to return the fuel subsidy, price of good commodities and other products will reduced tremendously. Don’t you know the higher the price of fuel, the higher the inflation of all the products Nigerians consume. Nnpc stations can’t be in the village now.

That is why I said things would be OK for may be 3 months. Infact knowing our people, they'll troop out and start celebrating.

Just give it 3 months or so, the Naira will reach lows that it has never reached before. The things that became cheap for a couple of months would suddenly become even more expensive than they were before full subsidy was returned.

People would start blaming that President for returning subsidy. No be Nigeria

Nigeria simply doesn't have the money to restore full subsidy for more than 3 months may be.

Kukutente23:
You seem to be among the few Nigerians who know how an economy works.

So, Tinubu and Co railed against subsidy removal in 2012. It means he does not know how an economy works. Can you explain to us why you voted for him despite his antecedents showing he is among the majority of ignorant Nigerians who don't understand how an economy works? You are one of the main problems of this country then.



There you have it. You are simply lying and spilling ignorance.

I am not interested in the usual histrionics concerning who railed against fuel subsidy 12 years ago.

It is petty and uninsightful to insist that if I, for example, opposed a decision 12 years ago, or even last week, I must never be allowed to change my mind if circumstances have evolved/changed.

If you look at the value of subsidy paid under Mr Obasanjo, and Mr Jonathan, you will see that it was much smaller relative to the size of the economy under those administrations. However, under Mr Buhari, the subsidy ballooned to incredible, unaffordable proportions.

So, people who protested against removal in 2012 are perfectly entitled to support removal now because subsidy of 2023 was on a different level compared to 2012.

If I am right, I believe in the last years of Mr Buhari's administration, we were spending about 25% of our entire budget on subsidy. And we were borrowing to pay it.

Borrowing to live a fake life. Is that logical?

You also made the wrong assumption that I voted for the current President.

Most Nigerians also assume the Nigerian President or even the CBN determine the naira to dollar exchange rate.

They can, if Nigerian has Saudi Arabia's type of reserve. But, Nigeria doesn't.

So, a lot of the value of the Naira is determined by externalities that are not all within the control of the CBN.

Currency traders have a lot to do with the sentiment around any currency. That in turn can influence the price of your currency. London is the world's largest currency market.

If London currency traders see signs that we are not serious about taking the right decisions to tighten our belt, particularly in relation to fuel subsidy, they will attack the naira and it will be in free fall.

I laugh when people say Mr Atiku or Mr Obi will have been able to keep subsidy at the same level it was previously. The message from currency traders will be, President Obi or President Atiku, you want to keep paying full subsidy so you can be popular with your people? No problem. However, in that case, your naira should be worth no more that N5000 to 1 dollar.

Within a few days, the currency traders will start attacking the naira. When price of bread reach N10000 per loaf, a President Atiku or Obi will crawl back begging to be allowed to remove subsidy

Mr Tinubu is doing a relatively good job presently. He said we should allow more time for his reforms to bear fruits. He deserves more time. You can't wipe away 30-year rot with a single wipe.

Removal of subsidy, introduction of student loan, reduction in debt repayment ratio, local government financial autonomy are all ground breaking achievements that no President in the history of Nigeria has achieved. And he has done all these in just over a year.

I feel sorry for Mr Tinubu. He deserves some credit.

This President announced in his speech that the proportion of debt servicing as a percentage of our total revenue has gone down from over 90% to around 65%!

In just over 1 year of being in office. That's incredible.

In 8 years, Mr Buhari borrowed so much that that ratio went to over 90%, but in just over a year, through prudent management, Mr Tinubu has reduced it to 65%.

My fellow citizens, this is an incredible achievement by any President.

Did our media realise and acknowledge this very important achievement. No. No. No. Did they give the President any credit. Na. Why?

Because, reporting doom and gloom, and instilling fear through non-stop encouragement of protests is the kind of news will that sell well and make the media more money.

The media love chaos and bad news. More money baby! Mr Falana and his likes also get a fix of their hunger for publicity and self importance.

If you are an average Nigerian, use your head. Do your own research. The media will only feed you what they want you to hear.

press9jatv:
if the subsidy is been restored back, nothing happens joor. It just that Tinubu government have further make things worse for Nigeria masses.

Try it na.

Just try it.

Even as an individual, when you have lived on borrowing and above your means for many years, a time will come when those lending you money will turn around and say, we can't lend you any more.

What do you do. You call your wife and reveal there is trouble and that all the flashy lifestyle you have given the family over the years was financed on debt. Now, the debtors want their money back and they are lending no more.

Your wife will probably burst into tears, in shock. The next question would be, what do we do now. You will both know at that point it is time to change course or the family will be in peril. Extreme belt tighning will have to come in. Sacrifices will need to be made by all members of the family.

Out goes expensive supermarket shopping, the Toyota land Cruiser will have to go, no more million naira wig for madam. Nifemi and Tolade will need to leave their N2 million per term private school. And so on and so forth. This is what a reasonable family will do. An unreasonable family will keep on insisting they can continue as before, and then they will run themselves into a financial ditch. They lose their house, cars, and other assets as the lenders come for their money. Now they are homeless, children are out of school and sent to grandma in the village out of shame.

Nigeria has been living on debt and above its level for at least 20 years, may be more. Infact, by the time Mr Buhari was leaving, some lenders were no longer willing to lend Nigeria money because they were concerned we may not be able to pay back. Nigeria was that broke and in dire straits.

Under Mr Buhari, we were using over 90% of our revenues to pay back debts. Just think about that for a minute. Over 90%!

To continue subsidy would have been economically suicidal for Nigeria.

Thankfully, a new President came in and realised that instead of the fake life Nigeria had been living all these years, we needed to urgently tighten our belt and he took what I consider to be one of the most significant decisions any Nigerian President has taken in almost 50 years. He removed the ruinous subsidy.

The man saved us!

Is removal of subsidy creating severe hardship. Absolutely. But Nigeria's situation would have been far worse a few years later if that decision had not been taken when the President took it.

Removal of fuel subsidy is one of the most important economic decisions Nigeria has made in at least 20 years.

I dare Nigeria to restore fuel subsidy now. Try it. Just try it Nigeria.

Most Nigerians, including the educated ones, have little or no understanding of how an economy works.

If fuel subsidy is restored today, things will look ok for 3 months max, but Nigeria's economy will then promptly face imminent collapse.

The only people that will be happy will be international and domestic speculators. They will destroy the naira. They care less about how many millions of people will suffer in Nigeria. I know what I am saying. The speculators in London will be popping Champagne.

Go ahead and restore full subsidy and see the naira plunge to at least N3000 or more within a few months. Go ahead. Just try it.

When a loaf of bread is N7000, people will start pleading for subsidy to be removed again. Not possible? Ask people in Lebanon, Argentina, and Egypt.

People like Mr Falana and the others jostling for cheap media publicity on Arise TV don't know their right from left when it comes to how an economy operates.

But those are the people many of your listen to.

I repeat, remove subsidy now. Go on. Just try it.

So a President is supposed to announce on TV that he agrees to everything protesters demand.

Especially on such fundamental economic decision as removal of fuel subsidy?

Do people even know that if fuel subsidy is restored in full today, things will look ok for 3 months max, but Nigeria's economy will then promptly face imminent collapse.

The only people that will be happy will be international and domestic speculators. They will destroy the naira. I know what I am saying. The speculators in London will be popping Champagne.

Go ahead and restore full subsidy and see the naira plunge to at least N3000 or more within 6 months. Go ahead. Just try it.

When a loaf of bread is N7000, you will will start pleading for subsidy to be removed again.

People like Mr Falana and the others jostling for cheap media publicity on Arise TV don't know their right from left when it comes to how an economy operates.

But, those are the people many of your listen to.

Smh

Zero protest in the SW State I am in currently.

I heard there was not even a single person carrying a placard throughout last week.

Business as usual here, though people are cautious.

Most people in the SW prefer their peace right now. Pictures of rioters looting in the North has further helped to consolidate the preference for peace.

That's not to say people are happy with the economic situation, but they don't see how rioting will help.

I also think SW people were shocked by the scale of destruction in Lagos during Endsars. They don't want a repeat.

It is a strategy that is commonly used by governments n the US, UK etc

Governments leak their own speeches in order to take the heat out of the actual speech itself.

In this particular case, many people were expecting return of subsidy and concessions on other demands.

As these demands were not going to be met, it made sense to dampen people's expectations in advance.

10/10 for whoever was behind the leak.

But Mr Atiku did not deem it necessary to report his brother, President Buhari's government to the UN for the alleged killing of pro-Biafran protesters in the South East.

Were the alleged South East victims not Nigerians? Why did Mr Atiku not report that government?

If a protest turns violent, as the current one has, in some places, and the government exercises his authority to send the Police out to maintain order, it is inevitable that life-risking decisions will be taken in the heat of the moment, as unfortunate as that is.

That was why many warned protesters to protest peacefully because things can degenerate very quickly.

In all the states where protests were largely peaceful, there was absolutely no major incidents between the Police and Protesters.

It is now absolutely clear that Mr Atiku does not mind the protest getting worse so his interest of undermining the government can be served.

The man is clearly sectional, and trying to whip up ethic uprising against the current government.

It is not about denomination.

1 USD = 1,350 South Korean Won

1 USD = 16 Ghanaian Cedis

Does it mean Cedis is stronger than the Won. No.

Is the Ghanaian economy better than S.Korean economy. Ofcourse No.

You can change Naira's denomination overnight to 1 USD to N160. It will make no difference to the underlying economic problems.

Ghana's situation is even worse than Nigeria. It is no wonder they're also having protests.

Hoelujohn:
Do you know if government gave them lands, fertillizers and seed? Let government allocate 1 acre each for families that want to grow crops for home. Let them Provide tractors and planters and seedlings. You will see what will happen in 6 months.

Outside of Abuja, Federal government doesn't own any land.

It is States that own land within their territory. States should be the one taking farming initiatives.

How many State governors ate doing that, particularly in the South.

Yet, everyone leaves the Governors, and blame the Federal government.

He shouldn't, as he can't meet most of the ridiculous demands of some protesters.

So, he will only get them even more agitated.

1) They want him to reverse fuel subsidy, but that's not possible.

2) They want him to return dollar exchange rate to 'where he met it', but that's not possible.

3) They want him to 'crash' the price of foods, but there is no immediate magic wand the President can wave to make it happen. Federal government doesn't farm pepper, tomatoes, Yam, etc

4) They want him to operate only Senate or House of Representatives and not both, but the President doesn't have the power to do that under the constitution.

If the President tries 1) and 2) above, the economy will collapse within 6 months, Naira will hit at least N5000 to a dollar before the end of the year, a loaf of bread will reach N7000 each and Nigerians will be begging for us to go back to where we were (are) on 2 August 2024.

People just don't understand.

They should ask Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt how it is going?

There is no nationwide protest.

There's virtually zero protest in many Southern states.

I heard only a couple of States in the North Central had any protest yesterday, and they were peaceful.

So far, protests have been confined to Abuja, the North West and North East.

That's not nationwide.

Once you stop 'protest' to eat, protest don finish for the day be that na.

No wonder protest in Lagos is not picking up steam.

Okoroawusa:
It will never be well with anybody that wants Lagos to burn.

I don't support your cursing or wishing people bad luck, but the scale of destruction witnessed in Lagos during the Endsars saga was extraordinary.

All concerned - responsible protesters and the state government must do their best to ensure there is no repeat.

In the South, it is so far so good.

Those protesting in Lagos are few and have by and large protested in a reasonable fashion. We'll done to them.

Hopefully, from tomorrow people and businesses can start returning to their usual day to day activities, even if the controlled protest continues.

I don't know about which states support or don't support who.

However, I heard there was not a single protester in Ondo State today. Similar situation in Ekiti. We wait to see what happens tomorrow.

Many in the South West believe:

1. It is too early to judge the government.

2. The government is making efforts, including several practical examples in the last few weeks, and so some patience is necessary.

3. There's suspicion that the protests are sponsored by invisible political hands mainly from the North who are bitter about their inability to control the current Southern President.

4. Protesting, which almost always lead to destruction and looting, as happened in some Northern states today, is not what the country needs at this point.

O ga o

The man carrying placard with the slogan 'Encourage Agriculture'.

If they ask him to farm now, he won't.

He'll blame herdsman. Has herdsmen palaver not reduced, at least in the South?

Farm, you refuse.
Go to school, you say education is a scam
Ok, you too invent something na, we our country fit export to earn dollars, you no fit.

Ok, like South Korean youths, you too produce something, anything, wey we fit export to obodo oyinbo, you say that wan no concern you. Abi South Korean youths get 2 heads?

Last last, you come carry placard say makegovernment 'encourage agriculture'

That placard no be scam?

How government don take discourage Agriculture. Tinubu stop you from planting tomato, or cassava?

Nigerians are deceiving themselves waiting for government to solve all problems including once they can help to solve themselves.

dumahi:
Call names.

I Honestly don't know their names.

I've seen a couple of them on both Arise and Channels. Never seen their faces in the media, until the last 2 weeks or so.

From their names, and their attire, they're Yoruba guys. Neither look above 40 years.

I suspect many of these latter-day 'human right activists' are just in it for their personal pecuniary interest.

I am surprised.

It seems the individuals who have been rushing to Arise TV and Channels over the last 2 weeks jostling for personal attention whilst claiming to be leaders of the protests and promising unprecedented protests are nowhere to be seen today

So these people 's plan all along was to push unsuspecting young men into protests and harm's way, while the so-called protest leaders watch on TV from the comfort of their houses, keeping their own children safe?

Kamala Harris will probably win.

I am in a South West state for an assignment.

There is zero talk of protests here. People are mostly not interested.

I think there's more protest talk going on online that in the real world.

Abuja, and some states will have a few protests here and there, but in many states, it will be mostly business as usual.

People underestimate how much an average citizen fear the ruthlessness of Nigerian police and the armed forces in a riot scenario.

You might say it would be a peaceful protest, but once you gather with strangers you know nothing about, you'll not have a say in whether things remain peaceful or riotous.

All you need for things to go from good to bad is just one protester throwing a stone or object that lands on a Police man that draws blood. Another exasperated police may, in that instant, fire a live bullet, and in the process down one or 2 protesters. Then all hell breaks loose, in a flash.

It is not worth it. Stay away.

I am in a state for an assignment.

There is zero talk of protests here.

Mr Fayose didn't say that.

I watched the entire interview.

You have twisted what he said.

You people are constantly trying to create chaos.

I hope the mods would watch the interview and change thar headline.

EyeCumInPeace:
Just restore Fuel Subsidy and the protest will die off.

That's not going to happen.

Some form of subsidy is already being paid, otherwise fuel price will be above N1100.

There is no constitutional right to buy fuel at N200, or any particular price.

Ghana also produce oil, yet petrol is more expensive there. It is aso more expensive in other neighbouring countries.

All the signs are there that anyything other than a small peaceful protest especially in Lagos, will likely end badly.

Do you gra gra online and stay in your house o.

I wish those going out to protest good luck.