₦airaland Forum

SmartPolician:
It's interesting that Tinubu will prefer this man to be senate president over Orji Kalu (that's if the rumour we hear is true)

He was against Mr Tinubu during the APC primaries despite everything (allegedly) that Mr Tinubu had done for him in the past, including taking in Mr Kalu's daughter to live with him in Lagos when Mr Kanu was in Abia state.

After Mr Tinubu won the election, Mr Kalu suddenly started going overboard to promote himself as Mr Tinubu's ardent supporter.

That bridge is burnt.

Mr Tinubu can't trust him.

If what this man has said is true, NDC could be in an even bigger legal trouble than ADC.

I always thought drugs were wrapped in cheap, dirty nylons.

So, they now come packaged like luxury products like that 'Lux'. That 'Bubba Kush' can even pass for a perfume.

If I was sitting at an event, and someone brought out a gummy from a package like this, I would never have assumed it was illicit drugs.

O ga o.

Lol.

Is that NDC Convention?

So, in addition to the Northerners presenting the Presidential candidate in the ADC, they also want to be the Presidental candidate in NDC, a party registered by Southerners

It is clear that even if Mr Obi is President, and Mr Kwankwaso is Vice, the North will insist on dominating that administration. They will just treat Mr Obi as one small-boy mumu President. His case will be worse than how the Northerners treated Mr Jonathan.

An Igbo / Fulani political collabo will only be peaceful if the Northerners are in control and dominate.

An Igbo / Fulani relationship is like mixing oil with water. E no go easy.

He is in for a long jail term.

The judge is clearly very displeased with him.

He will be somewhere regretting his life now, unless he has fled the country.

And the government will recover most of his assets and ruin him financially.

He has also ruined his family name. What do people like this tell their children in this type of situation. Kids, I am a bloody thief?

In the end, what has he gained.

Oops, that means ADC will likely go into their primaries with uncertainty about whether it will all be in vain.

Uncertainty is a major killer of motivation. After primary, party officers and members are supposed to be gingered and 'ready to go'.

How can ADC people be ready to go now, when they don't know if they're going or coming.

May God not put someone in a situation where his enemy refuses to get off his back o.

APC! Leave these people alone o.

Anyone that thinks some Nigerians are evil while others are saints is deluded.

Nigerians are all the same.

The idea that Mr Obi is different from the rest is laughable.

Mr Otedola doing wonders in First Bank.

It seems First Bank is finally back at the top alongside Zenith and GTB after nearly 15 years in the doldrums due to very poor lending decisions thar nearly ruined the bank.

Make no mistake, a well-run First Bank is a monster of a Bank.

No wonder Mr Otedola quickly sold his Geregu power, possibly to increase his stake in First Bank.

ariesbull:
I don't understand you guys .. with 10 million you want to sell yourself into slavery? With 10 million there are tons of businesses you can start up with ... Why do you guys always have this salary and pay me wage mentality !

I agree with you mostly, though not everybody can do business successfully even if they have N100 million.

What surprises me is that Nigerians don't follow international economic news. Most European countries are in dire straights economically. Their own citizens can barely survive due to high cost of living, and increasing unemployment rate.

Someone even suggested Finland, Luxembourg, and Belgium.

Oh dear.

Finland where tax is nearly 60%. Belgium is crap. Luxembourg is rich but you will only succeed in doing low paid manual jobs. Does the guy speak Finish, or French. That immediately puts him at a disadvantage.

In the mean time, there is a real risk your wife may not be able to join you for several years, thus causing you and your wife untold heartache. Is that worth it when you can out your N10m to work in Nigeria.

I know Nigeria is a difficult country, but it is the country of the future, not Belgium or some other old, fading European countries living on past glory.

Nigeria is where the opportunities are.

Sensiblerealist:
There are some serious realignment on going in the political space. I hope this APC that feels all powerful will not disintegrate cuz it's clearly showing signs of in-fighting

This is all planned from the top.

APC are already thinking beyond 2027.

2 days ago, the Senate leadership rushed through a rule essentially blocking new Senators from contesting for a principal position in the Senate.

Yesterday, Mr Akpabio and his Senate leadership team humiliatingly changed the rule back to how it was before.

You don't need a soothsayer to tell you the order to reverse the change came from Aso Rock.

The Imo governor will contest for a Senate seat, win, and then contest for the position of Senate President, and he will win.

One thing you can be sure of is that, the Lagos boys in Aso Rock, plus Mr Oshiomole, plus the Imo Governor are mercurial plotters.

Their political brain work way above that of their opponents.

The opposition will be wandering what is the long term plan of these APC people, but they will be left confused.

I suspect Mr Tinubu has some big constitutional reforms coming after his re-election so he is already positioning his right hand man as the next Senate President.

Having a paid-for, officially designated, on-street parking might be a better arrangement than what we have presently in Lagos.

Right now, you are not even sure if you can park in some places without your car being towed away.

In some cases, even shop owners will not let you park in front of their shops - on a public road!

Let the government mark parking spots. That way, drivers, tow vehicles, and shop owners know exactly where they stand.

Everywhere will scatter if he declares interest in contesting in NDC.

Mr Obi will finally have to contest in a primary.

That said, I think the law is against Mr Jonathan contesting.

Every where will scatter if he declares intention to contest in NDC.

Lol, all these people are just out for their stomach.

I only feel sorry for young, impressionable Arise-tv-watching youths who see some politicians as evil, and others as saints, not knowing or accepting that ALL of them are the same.

If they show this man this video now, he will twist and turn and say the whole thing is a lie and that APC is out to destroy him, even though this has nothing to do with APC.

Ask him to leave APC alone for now, and tell Nigerians why Mr Atiku is suddenly the best thing since slice bread despite everything he said about him in the past, you will see him sweating profusely as he tries to conjure up a lie.

Host78:
So let's take this example.

People buy and sell on nairaland all the time. So if I decide to build an app that let's users transact like an escrow that accepts payment via flutterwave or paystack or direct bank transfer, I'll need a license from CBN?

If by escrow, you mean holding the money paid by a buyer to a seller before transferring it to the seller later, then you need a licence.

However, if your app enables a buyer to pay to a seller via paystack or fluttereave, you do not require a CBN license since you are not touching or holding any money paid by the buyer to the seller. Paystack or Flutterwave already have the required CBN licence for that.

That's my interpretation.

As for Yorubas going tribal.

Has the North not been tribal against Mr Tinubu.

Is Mr Obi's support not mostly tribe-based.

The truth is every region (except maybe the North Central because of its disparate character) is tribal in Nigeria.

The Yorubas on average believe in fair play. Many will prefer to vote for Mr Obi than Mr Atiku just on the basis that Mr Buhari only recently left the office.

Come 2031, if Mr Tinubu tries, for example, to present a Northern Christian presidential candidate, that candidate will likely lose in the SW not because of his religion, but because Yorubas will tell Mr Tinubu to play fair and support those who supported him to become President ie. a Fulani or Hausa candidate and pair that candidate with an Igbo VP.

At the right time, they will also support a Northern Christian too.

Many Yorubas play fair.

Also, many Yorubas are getting fed up with Nigeria, so after Mr Tinubu, the focus will be on moving the SW forward economically, with the focus being on our jewel, Lagos, and its economy.

AMINDA:
You practically just saw the other bloc of the PDP pledging to field a single presidential candidate at the Ibadan Declaration and you think the PDP structure is dead?

You're already baking in an Adeleke victory into your calculations. You also assume that the Presidential election in the SW will be conducted in a free and fair manner.

1. My suspicion is that APC will take Mr Adeleke's promise of support with a pinch of salt. The likes of Mr Tinubu and Osun APC are too experienced to believe an opposition Governor.

2. Following from 1, APC will do everything possible to win Osun Governorship. I fear that election will be very violent, or there will be so much military and other forces deployed that many opposition voters will be too intimidated to come out to vote. Just speculation. I could be wrong.

3. The 'other' PDP faction will mostly go with Mr Makinde. Even if we assume that's to ADC, that party is virtually non-existent in many SW states, and where they exist, they're keeping a low profile because people are just watching them for now.
They are too weak in the SW to make any impact, though there is still time for them. I just don't see them coming strong in the SW.

AMINDA:
Atiku contested after 8 years of Buhari and won Osun, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa. Make of that what you will.

My brother, Mr Tinubu was not President then, and it wasn't Mr Atiku that won the Osun votes, it was PDP as a party, and a PDP Governor. The 2027 scenario will be different.

Please see the new addition to my last comment.

Yorubas are quiet now (as they tend to do in these situations), but no group in Nigeria wants a President from their region humiliated out of office. That's just the reality.

Near to the election, APC politicians in the SW will whip up sentiment along the lines of Nigeria doesn't belong to 'Fulanis' alone.

Once a Yoruba man hears that, all his complaints about expensive food, lack of electricity etc will disappear. He will default back to primordial sentiment.

I would be surprised if Aregbesola delivered 10,000 votes for ADC in Osun. Where would he get it from?

AMINDA:
In 2023, he ran against the tide and met the threshold in about 20 states. He was only 4 states short. With a Seyi Makinde as Vice for example, he just might meet the threshold at first ballot. Also, Atiku will get the highest votes at first ballot in all permutations.

You are right that Mr Atiku will likely increase his vote counts in the North.

But as you know, that alone will not secure him the Presidency. He needs to meet the 25% requirement in 24 states. That's a massive ask, because without Mr Obi, ADC doesn't really have any Southern politician that can help ADC in the South. That's a big weakness for Mr Atiku.

I speculate that Mr Makinde will not deliver 25% of votes in Oyo for ADC, even though ADC may do much better in the Governorship election in that State.

25% of Oyo voters will not queue in the sun to vote out a Yoruba President, particularly when they see that Mr Buhari was allowed to do 2 terms despite not having a stellar performance record.

EponObi:
If Adolf Hitler partners with their demagogue today, he will become the best thing after jollof rice. All because of some presidential ambition with no pathway to victory.

This may not be a direct response to your post, but I suspect that once all parties have gone through their primaries, and Mr Obi is in NDC, the court cases against ADC will slowly ebb away.

By then, APC will have achieved their aim of ensuring Mr Atiku and Mr Obi are not ADC's Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates.
This combination was the most dangerous for APC.

If Mr Obi ends up in NDC, then the most likely outcome is an APC victory or a rerun between the President and Mr Atiku.

Mr Obi pulling away from ADC is a catastrophic outcome for Mr Atiku because that will wipe him out of the entire South, as I can't think of any state where ADC can/will be allowed to win 25% of the votes.

Can anyone think of a Southern state where that can happen without Mr Obi in the ADC? I can't.

If Mr Atiku doesn't win 25% of votes in a single Southern state, he can't be declared a winner even if he wins more votes overall than Mr Tinubu.

Mr Atiku's best shot is a rerun.

AMINDA:
Yes, that's the strategy. Obi/Kwankwaso will strangle APC in the South but it will not get enough votes to win the general .

Hmm, the scale of the 'strangulation' is unlikely to be as catastrophic as you postulate.

Damaging in the South East, yes, but with all SE Governors appearing to support Mr Tinubu, he will do a lot better than last year in that region. And the critical factor is for him to get 25% of the votes in say, 3 SE states. I think the Governors will deliver that.

I speculate that there'll be a complete wipeout of Mr Obi's 2023 votes in the SW, by whatever means APC finds necessary. It will be APC top to bottom, including Oyo.

There are APC Governors in the SS that will do whatever is necessary to ensure NDC doesn't do well in many SS states.

It's even easier for a keen Governor to facilitate rigging under the new Electoral law. So, expect a lot of rigging, and with NDC not having any Governor, I suspect the party will only do well in its likely stronghold - the SE.

helinues:
Your epistle didn't cover the other part of my comments which wasn't considered

Nigeria political dynamics would change after the 2027 election . I have written about how Apc might likely collapse before the 2031 election

I long figured out we are not at the same intellectual level, but that alone was not enough reason not to exchange views with you.

However, your totally unwarranted rudeness in response to an otherwise civil comment is beyond the pale.

I will not be reading, or responding to any of your comments going forward.

helinues:
Cult like which is mostly restricted to Kano state.

That will change whatever happens in 2027. In the South, it's mostly those who follow politics on social media that know who Mr Kwankwaso is. He's not well known amongst the Southern population.

However, if he becomes Mr Obi's VP candidate, his profile in the South will rise exponentially.

Going into 2031, Mr Obi's supporters will find it easier to adopt him as their preferred Northern candidate, particularly if he chooses an 'obidient' put foward by Mr Obi as his VP candidate. Who knows, even Mr Obi may become his VP candidate. Now, the latter scenario will be a blockbuster since obidients will not be angry at him becoming a vice since it's 'the turn' of the North.

Unless there’s an intractable reason which we dont know of as to why Mr Kwankwaso won't be able to spread his popularity in the North beyond Kano (as you suggest) between now and 2031, then your point about his lack of broad-based support in those regions will fall apart.

Anyway, as a British politician once said, a week is a long time in politics. So a lot can (and probably will) change between now and 2031.

Freshtruth:
Who ever convince Rabiu kwankwaso to agllin with Peter obi has done just raise Rabiu kwankwanso stake Nationwide. Obi spread is national and is gaining momentum even though obi fails to win next year election kwakwaso has automatically inherited the obedient movement ahead of 2031 presidential elections as the major opposition. By 2031 Atiku would had left the sence of politics and obi won't come out again by 2031 this is obi final shot at the presidency .
it will be Tinubu anointed candidate against kwankwaso the new face of opposition by 2031. Kwankwaso is a wise man for positioning himself for future reasons.

I agree 100%!

I came to the same conclusion as you within minutes of reading about their move to NDC.

Obi/Kwankwaso is not winning in 2027. Mr Kwankwaso probably knows, but he is looking to 2031.

Mr Kwankwaso will be a big winner with a much-raised national profile after 2027. Imagine if he picks an Igbo VP in 2031, that'll probably make him the favourite going into 2031.

Mr Kwankwaso's supporters who say, he is more qualified, how can he deputise Mr Obi are not reading the future.

magoo10:
ADC and NDC will squeeze the hell out of the APC in the north .
their deceitful strategy of sponsoring viruses in the opposition parties will fall flat.

Mr Atiku will be the biggest loser as Mr Kwankwaso as VP candidate to Mr Obi will turn it into a 3 - way scramble for votes in the moslem North.

A 2 - way fight for votes between ADC and APC in the North would have worked better for Mr Atiku.

Also, without Mr Obi as VP candidate to Mr Atiku in ADC, Mr Atiku will be in trouble in the entire South. ADC will not win 25% of votes in any Southern State, plus Benue.

Or can anyone tell me a state in the South where an Atiku/Amaech can get 25% of the votes. Wike will not let that happen in Rivers. If it's Mr Atiku and the Oyo State Governor, APC, using federal might will ensure ADC doesn't get 25% in Oyo.

Overall, an Obi move to NDC is a disaster for Mr Atiku.

If ADC doesn't win 25% in any Southern state, then Mr Atiku can't be declared the winner even if he wins 20 million votes in the North.

Cyberterror:
You are contradicting yourself. A referee takes decisions. He can award a penalty, issue a red card, stop a match etc. INEC has so much powers and they can settle a dispute in a party in a manner that seem fair to them as the referee.

You're overstating INEC's power.

INEC does not have the power to ignore a court order or judgement.

It can't even ignore the order of a magistrate Court, let alone that of a High Court, the Court of Appeal, or the mighty Supreme Court.

INEC's problem is usually around confusing/unclear or contradictory Court judgements where it has to carefully decode exactly what an unclear judgement means.

If a court judgement is clear, INEC has no choice, it must follow the judgement 100%.

Cyberterror:
I assure you that INEC will not upload the names of Mark and his ursupers to their portal. The Supreme Court has left INEC to be fully in charge now and no legal remedy for the aggrieved.

I have not read the judgement but if as it is being reported, the Supreme Court has quashed the Court of Appeal's order to return to the previous status quo, then INEC has no choice but to reinstall Mr Mark's name.

The only issue now is yesterday's Federal High Court judgement which barred INEC from recognising the Mr Mark-led leadership.

Based on what has been reported here, it appears the Supreme Court did not rule that Mr Mark and his team are the rightful leaders of ADC. It merely stated that the Court of Appeal should have left the present leadership of the party as it is pending the outcome of the cases in the lower courts.

My view is that, yesterday's Federal High Court order/judgement remains relevant since the Supreme Court judgement did not touch on the issues before that court.

That being the case INEC may feel compelled to obey yesterday's court order directing it not to recognise Mr Mark's leadership of the party.

No doubt INEC'S legal team will be pouring over the Supreme Court judgement and that of the Federal High Court to determine INEC'S next steps.

Th Supreme Court judgement has even put the ADC is in a bigger dilemma now.

Since they have to return to the lower court for the main disputes between the various camps, and that can last several weeks, ADC politicians that remain in the party beyond May 10 will be locked into the party despite the continuing uncertainty about how things will turn out at the lower courts.

Those who are thinking of moving to ADC will be scratching their heads now wondering whether it is the right move.

As far as ADC is concerned, the legal battles have not even started.

INEC removing Mr Mark's name wasn't even a big thing, just as his name being restored doesn't change anything.

It is the outcome of the cases in the lower courts that are yet to be decided that matter.

If his name is removed and he wins those cases, then his name will have to be reinstalled.

Equally, if his name is reinstalled and his camp loses the cases at the lower court, his name will be removed, even if it's August, October or whenever.

In essence, it is the outcome of the cases that matter. The rest is noise.

If the Supreme Court had sided with the faction that held the Ibadan convention, that would have killed the entire Judicial system.

It would have legitimised rampant disregard for, and disrespect of courts.

The entire court system and indeed society would have descended into anarchy.

Best President / Head of state since independence.

Full stop.

OgwuEgo:
House of reps get more than 10 million monthly as salary plus constituency fund of more than 500million annually he can easily afford it.

N10m per month. Are you sure.