₦airaland Forum

renderme:
Tinubu wrote an article about Africa creating its own rating agencies in the global economic magazine, Financial Times last month.

Yesterday, he spoke in Kigali about how the international credit rating agencies were not fit for purpose for Africa.

Today S&P has done the needful. A bold and audacious president.

The message from Kigali yesterday from the 2 presidents was Africa need to start taking charge and leading its future and stop thinking small. Produce & add value to our raw materials ourselves or force investors to add value here, trade with each other by starting product exchanges and then have our own credit rating system for investors on the continent. Build infrastructure linking countries. Tinubu thinks like a CEO, not just an administrator.

The man is the best President / Head of State Nigeria has had in 65 years of independence. Full stop.

Anyone that disputes this should mention any previous leader that has done so much in just over 3 years.

I travelled to Ilesa recently. I was shocked by the scale of the road construction going from Ilesa to Ibadan. Apparently, the road is also going to be redeveloped in the opposite direction to Akure, then to Benin. This project is not even mentioned in the media, which means there are probably even bigger road projects going on in other parts of the country.

What an Audacious President.

We left Ilesha to Akure. On our way back, we decided to go through Ore as it would be faster to Lagos that the Ilesha/Ibadan road.

Guess what? To our shock, there is massive reconstruction of the road between Ore and Akure. This is not a joke road o. You are looking at another very lengthy road that had remained more or less the same for decades. Now, the entire road is being expanded with concrete, all the way to Akure. Shocking! This is a once in 50 years road project that no other President would have even started.

But the average Nigerian just doesn't appreciate anything.

The way they lampoon this man every minute of the day, you just watch and shake your head.

Yet deceptive opposition politicians have misled many Nigerians into believing the government is over borrowing.

A country's ratings do not go up if it is overborrowing!

Egypt borrows $10 billion or above at a single time from the World Bank, and at times up to $15 billion from Saudi Arabia, UAE etc.

Nigeria, with a bigger economy, borrows smaller amounts - $1.5 billion here, $500m etc from the same World Bank, yet many ill informed social media youths start shouting, too much debt, too much debt as if Nigeria is on the verge of collapse. Nigeria's economy is big and strong!

USA is the biggest borrower in the world, but you are desperate to move there. Japan is the 2nd biggest borrower in the world - you accuse the Nigerian government of not developing Nigeria to Japanese level but you also don't want the government to borrow. No be juju be that?

Ghana, Rwanda, Kenya are borrowing heavily to develop their countries, but somehow, Nigeria should sits on its hands and not borrow to develop itself.

Even leaving aside the coastal road, this government is completely rebuilding and expanding the road from Iwo Road in Ibadan all the way to Oluku junction in Benin, Edo State and work is going on massively. This is an incredible project, cutting across 4 states. No government in the history of Nigeria has undertaken the scale of road projects going on presently in Nigeria. But the black man can't see beyond his nose. He doesn't appreciate most positive things done in his country.

And by the way, the World Bank is no mugu. It doesn't lend you money unless it knows you have the capacity to pay back. And Nigeria is rated as capable to repay its loan than Ghana, Kenya etc

Every country in the world is borrowing, but Nigerian opposition politicians pretend that Nigeria can develop without borrowing.

Lagos State is the most indebted state in Nigeria because it is borrowing to develop faster. That's long term strategy for success. Ekiti, Ondo, Anambra, Edo and many other states that are not borrowing like Lagos, what do they have to show for not borrowing?

Don't be deceived. Nigeria cannot develop without borrowing.

Two4seven:
Will results of students below 16years be released?

Exactly.

15 years, 9 months old student who scored 285 last year was denied a university place.

Yet, a 16 year old (whose only 3 months older), who scored 180 was able to get admission


This year, they have not even released the results of students who will be under 16 by September.

Waste of time, and misplaced priority.

Do this people know how much it costs to build and maintain rail lines.

Also, inter-state rail should not be a priority for the SW right now.

There simply is not enough traffic between Ondo, Osun, Ekiti to and from Lagos or Ibadan on a daily basis to justify spending hundreds of billions or over a trillion building expensive and grossly underused railway.

If the major interstate roads are good and safe, more than 80% of SW population will be within 5hrs drive of Lagos and Ibadan. That's good enough for now. And for those who want to fly, Ondo State which is SW's furthest state to the East - Akure to Lagos is 30 mins by flight. So where is the huge number of travelers from Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti that are desperately clamouring for travel by rail?

Instead of wasting peoples's time and money on white elephant projects that are bound to fail, they should focus on low cost housing, substantially improving primary and secondary school education across the region, fund primary health centres in rural and semi-urban centres, help farmers with reduced-price farm inputs, create and institutionalise credit finance cooperatives for low income earners across the region etc

Real projects that will impact ordinary people.

The only interstate rail line that may be viable in the SW is Lagos-Ibadan. Even the present line is not profitable and is subsidised by the federal government.

So, is it Akure to Osogbo rail line that will have less than 30 people on it per trip that will be viable?

A Presidential candidate must secure a minimum of 25% of votes in at least 24 states to have a chance of being declared a winner.

The chances of Mr Atiku scoring 25% in 24 states is very slim, if not zero, as I can't think of a single Southern state where ADC will secure 25% of the votes, now that Mr Obi has left the party.

As for NDC, in 2023, Mr Obi and Mr Kwankwaso only secured 25% of the votes in a combined total of 17 states. That means they need an additional 7 states. NDC may secure 25% in Lagos, but it will not anywhere else in the South West, and the North East where ADC will likely dominate. The party may also secure 25% of votes in 2 or 3 NW States. That will still leave them short of 24 states.

APC will gain 25% in more Southern States than it did last time, and will secure 25% in almost all North Central states, and in 2 or 3 North East, and North West states, so APC is unlikely to have a problem reaching 24.

APC is still in poll position for the coming elections. All each Southern APC Governor needs to do is ensure that ADC's doesn't win 25% of the votes in their state. Even if Mr Atiku wins all 19 Northern States, he will still need to gain 25% of votes in at least 5 Southern states to have a chance of being declared a winner. I don't know about other Southern regions, but in the SW, ADC will struggle to get 5% in any SW State. I could be wrong, but I don't see ADC getting 25% in any SS or SE State. If this scenario plays out, then Mr Atiku cannot be declared President even if he gets 500 million votes in the North.

Mr Obi's withdrawal from ADC has killed the party in the South. ADC leaders know it. That is why they are presently very bitter and demoralised. When they appear on TV these days, they wear long faces and appear deflated. Without Mr Obi, there is no Southern political heavyweight in ADC that can deliver 25% in any Southern state.

Ilorin used to be in the top 3 almost every year.

Now, one of its key advantages - no 'ASUU strike - a 4 year course is a 4 year course ' has ebbed away.

OAU that had a reputation for incessant strikes and used to struggle to be in the top 10, has now shut up to no.3.

This is all thanks to the fact that Mr Tinubu has kept his promise to bring an end to ASUU strikes.

LASG should also enact a new Power Theft and Anti-Tamper Law.

1) You steal, or illegally tamper with or use electricity supply so as to deprive a power company of the economic value associated with power supply - minimum of 4 years imprisonment.

Even if you are not the actual thief, or tamperer, as long as you are part of those using stolen power in a property, you too must go to jail. Whether you're a housewife o, tenant o, landlord, doctor, lawyer, pastor, imam, civil servant etc. as long as you are 18 years or over, you are off to jail.

2) You steal, wilfully tamper with or damage power supply infrastructure such as power cables, electricity poles etc - minimum of 7 years.

And more.

SmartPolician:
It's interesting that Tinubu will prefer this man to be senate president over Orji Kalu (that's if the rumour we hear is true)

He was against Mr Tinubu during the APC primaries despite everything (allegedly) that Mr Tinubu had done for him in the past, including taking in Mr Kalu's daughter to live with him in Lagos when Mr Kanu was in Abia state.

After Mr Tinubu won the election, Mr Kalu suddenly started going overboard to promote himself as Mr Tinubu's ardent supporter.

That bridge is burnt.

Mr Tinubu can't trust him.

If what this man has said is true, NDC could be in an even bigger legal trouble than ADC.

I always thought drugs were wrapped in cheap, dirty nylons.

So, they now come packaged like luxury products like that 'Lux'. That 'Bubba Kush' can even pass for a perfume.

If I was sitting at an event, and someone brought out a gummy from a package like this, I would never have assumed it was illicit drugs.

O ga o.

Lol.

Is that NDC Convention?

So, in addition to the Northerners presenting the Presidential candidate in the ADC, they also want to be the Presidental candidate in NDC, a party registered by Southerners

It is clear that even if Mr Obi is President, and Mr Kwankwaso is Vice, the North will insist on dominating that administration. They will just treat Mr Obi as one small-boy mumu President. His case will be worse than how the Northerners treated Mr Jonathan.

An Igbo / Fulani political collabo will only be peaceful if the Northerners are in control and dominate.

An Igbo / Fulani relationship is like mixing oil with water. E no go easy.

He is in for a long jail term.

The judge is clearly very displeased with him.

He will be somewhere regretting his life now, unless he has fled the country.

And the government will recover most of his assets and ruin him financially.

He has also ruined his family name. What do people like this tell their children in this type of situation. Kids, I am a bloody thief?

In the end, what has he gained.

Oops, that means ADC will likely go into their primaries with uncertainty about whether it will all be in vain.

Uncertainty is a major killer of motivation. After primary, party officers and members are supposed to be gingered and 'ready to go'.

How can ADC people be ready to go now, when they don't know if they're going or coming.

May God not put someone in a situation where his enemy refuses to get off his back o.

APC! Leave these people alone o.

Anyone that thinks some Nigerians are evil while others are saints is deluded.

Nigerians are all the same.

The idea that Mr Obi is different from the rest is laughable.

Mr Otedola doing wonders in First Bank.

It seems First Bank is finally back at the top alongside Zenith and GTB after nearly 15 years in the doldrums due to very poor lending decisions thar nearly ruined the bank.

Make no mistake, a well-run First Bank is a monster of a Bank.

No wonder Mr Otedola quickly sold his Geregu power, possibly to increase his stake in First Bank.

ariesbull:
I don't understand you guys .. with 10 million you want to sell yourself into slavery? With 10 million there are tons of businesses you can start up with ... Why do you guys always have this salary and pay me wage mentality !

I agree with you mostly, though not everybody can do business successfully even if they have N100 million.

What surprises me is that Nigerians don't follow international economic news. Most European countries are in dire straights economically. Their own citizens can barely survive due to high cost of living, and increasing unemployment rate.

Someone even suggested Finland, Luxembourg, and Belgium.

Oh dear.

Finland where tax is nearly 60%. Belgium is crap. Luxembourg is rich but you will only succeed in doing low paid manual jobs. Does the guy speak Finish, or French. That immediately puts him at a disadvantage.

In the mean time, there is a real risk your wife may not be able to join you for several years, thus causing you and your wife untold heartache. Is that worth it when you can out your N10m to work in Nigeria.

I know Nigeria is a difficult country, but it is the country of the future, not Belgium or some other old, fading European countries living on past glory.

Nigeria is where the opportunities are.

Sensiblerealist:
There are some serious realignment on going in the political space. I hope this APC that feels all powerful will not disintegrate cuz it's clearly showing signs of in-fighting

This is all planned from the top.

APC are already thinking beyond 2027.

2 days ago, the Senate leadership rushed through a rule essentially blocking new Senators from contesting for a principal position in the Senate.

Yesterday, Mr Akpabio and his Senate leadership team humiliatingly changed the rule back to how it was before.

You don't need a soothsayer to tell you the order to reverse the change came from Aso Rock.

The Imo governor will contest for a Senate seat, win, and then contest for the position of Senate President, and he will win.

One thing you can be sure of is that, the Lagos boys in Aso Rock, plus Mr Oshiomole, plus the Imo Governor are mercurial plotters.

Their political brain work way above that of their opponents.

The opposition will be wandering what is the long term plan of these APC people, but they will be left confused.

I suspect Mr Tinubu has some big constitutional reforms coming after his re-election so he is already positioning his right hand man as the next Senate President.

Having a paid-for, officially designated, on-street parking might be a better arrangement than what we have presently in Lagos.

Right now, you are not even sure if you can park in some places without your car being towed away.

In some cases, even shop owners will not let you park in front of their shops - on a public road!

Let the government mark parking spots. That way, drivers, tow vehicles, and shop owners know exactly where they stand.

Everywhere will scatter if he declares interest in contesting in NDC.

Mr Obi will finally have to contest in a primary.

That said, I think the law is against Mr Jonathan contesting.

Every where will scatter if he declares intention to contest in NDC.

Lol, all these people are just out for their stomach.

I only feel sorry for young, impressionable Arise-tv-watching youths who see some politicians as evil, and others as saints, not knowing or accepting that ALL of them are the same.

If they show this man this video now, he will twist and turn and say the whole thing is a lie and that APC is out to destroy him, even though this has nothing to do with APC.

Ask him to leave APC alone for now, and tell Nigerians why Mr Atiku is suddenly the best thing since slice bread despite everything he said about him in the past, you will see him sweating profusely as he tries to conjure up a lie.

Host78:
So let's take this example.

People buy and sell on nairaland all the time. So if I decide to build an app that let's users transact like an escrow that accepts payment via flutterwave or paystack or direct bank transfer, I'll need a license from CBN?

If by escrow, you mean holding the money paid by a buyer to a seller before transferring it to the seller later, then you need a licence.

However, if your app enables a buyer to pay to a seller via paystack or fluttereave, you do not require a CBN license since you are not touching or holding any money paid by the buyer to the seller. Paystack or Flutterwave already have the required CBN licence for that.

That's my interpretation.

As for Yorubas going tribal.

Has the North not been tribal against Mr Tinubu.

Is Mr Obi's support not mostly tribe-based.

The truth is every region (except maybe the North Central because of its disparate character) is tribal in Nigeria.

The Yorubas on average believe in fair play. Many will prefer to vote for Mr Obi than Mr Atiku just on the basis that Mr Buhari only recently left the office.

Come 2031, if Mr Tinubu tries, for example, to present a Northern Christian presidential candidate, that candidate will likely lose in the SW not because of his religion, but because Yorubas will tell Mr Tinubu to play fair and support those who supported him to become President ie. a Fulani or Hausa candidate and pair that candidate with an Igbo VP.

At the right time, they will also support a Northern Christian too.

Many Yorubas play fair.

Also, many Yorubas are getting fed up with Nigeria, so after Mr Tinubu, the focus will be on moving the SW forward economically, with the focus being on our jewel, Lagos, and its economy.

AMINDA:
You practically just saw the other bloc of the PDP pledging to field a single presidential candidate at the Ibadan Declaration and you think the PDP structure is dead?

You're already baking in an Adeleke victory into your calculations. You also assume that the Presidential election in the SW will be conducted in a free and fair manner.

1. My suspicion is that APC will take Mr Adeleke's promise of support with a pinch of salt. The likes of Mr Tinubu and Osun APC are too experienced to believe an opposition Governor.

2. Following from 1, APC will do everything possible to win Osun Governorship. I fear that election will be very violent, or there will be so much military and other forces deployed that many opposition voters will be too intimidated to come out to vote. Just speculation. I could be wrong.

3. The 'other' PDP faction will mostly go with Mr Makinde. Even if we assume that's to ADC, that party is virtually non-existent in many SW states, and where they exist, they're keeping a low profile because people are just watching them for now.
They are too weak in the SW to make any impact, though there is still time for them. I just don't see them coming strong in the SW.

AMINDA:
Atiku contested after 8 years of Buhari and won Osun, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa. Make of that what you will.

My brother, Mr Tinubu was not President then, and it wasn't Mr Atiku that won the Osun votes, it was PDP as a party, and a PDP Governor. The 2027 scenario will be different.

Please see the new addition to my last comment.

Yorubas are quiet now (as they tend to do in these situations), but no group in Nigeria wants a President from their region humiliated out of office. That's just the reality.

Near to the election, APC politicians in the SW will whip up sentiment along the lines of Nigeria doesn't belong to 'Fulanis' alone.

Once a Yoruba man hears that, all his complaints about expensive food, lack of electricity etc will disappear. He will default back to primordial sentiment.

I would be surprised if Aregbesola delivered 10,000 votes for ADC in Osun. Where would he get it from?

AMINDA:
In 2023, he ran against the tide and met the threshold in about 20 states. He was only 4 states short. With a Seyi Makinde as Vice for example, he just might meet the threshold at first ballot. Also, Atiku will get the highest votes at first ballot in all permutations.

You are right that Mr Atiku will likely increase his vote counts in the North.

But as you know, that alone will not secure him the Presidency. He needs to meet the 25% requirement in 24 states. That's a massive ask, because without Mr Obi, ADC doesn't really have any Southern politician that can help ADC in the South. That's a big weakness for Mr Atiku.

I speculate that Mr Makinde will not deliver 25% of votes in Oyo for ADC, even though ADC may do much better in the Governorship election in that State.

25% of Oyo voters will not queue in the sun to vote out a Yoruba President, particularly when they see that Mr Buhari was allowed to do 2 terms despite not having a stellar performance record.

EponObi:
If Adolf Hitler partners with their demagogue today, he will become the best thing after jollof rice. All because of some presidential ambition with no pathway to victory.

This may not be a direct response to your post, but I suspect that once all parties have gone through their primaries, and Mr Obi is in NDC, the court cases against ADC will slowly ebb away.

By then, APC will have achieved their aim of ensuring Mr Atiku and Mr Obi are not ADC's Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates.
This combination was the most dangerous for APC.

If Mr Obi ends up in NDC, then the most likely outcome is an APC victory or a rerun between the President and Mr Atiku.

Mr Obi pulling away from ADC is a catastrophic outcome for Mr Atiku because that will wipe him out of the entire South, as I can't think of any state where ADC can/will be allowed to win 25% of the votes.

Can anyone think of a Southern state where that can happen without Mr Obi in the ADC? I can't.

If Mr Atiku doesn't win 25% of votes in a single Southern state, he can't be declared a winner even if he wins more votes overall than Mr Tinubu.

Mr Atiku's best shot is a rerun.

AMINDA:
Yes, that's the strategy. Obi/Kwankwaso will strangle APC in the South but it will not get enough votes to win the general .

Hmm, the scale of the 'strangulation' is unlikely to be as catastrophic as you postulate.

Damaging in the South East, yes, but with all SE Governors appearing to support Mr Tinubu, he will do a lot better than last year in that region. And the critical factor is for him to get 25% of the votes in say, 3 SE states. I think the Governors will deliver that.

I speculate that there'll be a complete wipeout of Mr Obi's 2023 votes in the SW, by whatever means APC finds necessary. It will be APC top to bottom, including Oyo.

There are APC Governors in the SS that will do whatever is necessary to ensure NDC doesn't do well in many SS states.

It's even easier for a keen Governor to facilitate rigging under the new Electoral law. So, expect a lot of rigging, and with NDC not having any Governor, I suspect the party will only do well in its likely stronghold - the SE.

helinues:
Your epistle didn't cover the other part of my comments which wasn't considered

Nigeria political dynamics would change after the 2027 election . I have written about how Apc might likely collapse before the 2031 election

I long figured out we are not at the same intellectual level, but that alone was not enough reason not to exchange views with you.

However, your totally unwarranted rudeness in response to an otherwise civil comment is beyond the pale.

I will not be reading, or responding to any of your comments going forward.

helinues:
Cult like which is mostly restricted to Kano state.

That will change whatever happens in 2027. In the South, it's mostly those who follow politics on social media that know who Mr Kwankwaso is. He's not well known amongst the Southern population.

However, if he becomes Mr Obi's VP candidate, his profile in the South will rise exponentially.

Going into 2031, Mr Obi's supporters will find it easier to adopt him as their preferred Northern candidate, particularly if he chooses an 'obidient' put foward by Mr Obi as his VP candidate. Who knows, even Mr Obi may become his VP candidate. Now, the latter scenario will be a blockbuster since obidients will not be angry at him becoming a vice since it's 'the turn' of the North.

Unless there’s an intractable reason which we dont know of as to why Mr Kwankwaso won't be able to spread his popularity in the North beyond Kano (as you suggest) between now and 2031, then your point about his lack of broad-based support in those regions will fall apart.

Anyway, as a British politician once said, a week is a long time in politics. So a lot can (and probably will) change between now and 2031.

Freshtruth:
Who ever convince Rabiu kwankwaso to agllin with Peter obi has done just raise Rabiu kwankwanso stake Nationwide. Obi spread is national and is gaining momentum even though obi fails to win next year election kwakwaso has automatically inherited the obedient movement ahead of 2031 presidential elections as the major opposition. By 2031 Atiku would had left the sence of politics and obi won't come out again by 2031 this is obi final shot at the presidency .
it will be Tinubu anointed candidate against kwankwaso the new face of opposition by 2031. Kwankwaso is a wise man for positioning himself for future reasons.

I agree 100%!

I came to the same conclusion as you within minutes of reading about their move to NDC.

Obi/Kwankwaso is not winning in 2027. Mr Kwankwaso probably knows, but he is looking to 2031.

Mr Kwankwaso will be a big winner with a much-raised national profile after 2027. Imagine if he picks an Igbo VP in 2031, that'll probably make him the favourite going into 2031.

Mr Kwankwaso's supporters who say, he is more qualified, how can he deputise Mr Obi are not reading the future.

magoo10:
ADC and NDC will squeeze the hell out of the APC in the north .
their deceitful strategy of sponsoring viruses in the opposition parties will fall flat.

Mr Atiku will be the biggest loser as Mr Kwankwaso as VP candidate to Mr Obi will turn it into a 3 - way scramble for votes in the moslem North.

A 2 - way fight for votes between ADC and APC in the North would have worked better for Mr Atiku.

Also, without Mr Obi as VP candidate to Mr Atiku in ADC, Mr Atiku will be in trouble in the entire South. ADC will not win 25% of votes in any Southern State, plus Benue.

Or can anyone tell me a state in the South where an Atiku/Amaech can get 25% of the votes. Wike will not let that happen in Rivers. If it's Mr Atiku and the Oyo State Governor, APC, using federal might will ensure ADC doesn't get 25% in Oyo.

Overall, an Obi move to NDC is a disaster for Mr Atiku.

If ADC doesn't win 25% in any Southern state, then Mr Atiku can't be declared the winner even if he wins 20 million votes in the North.