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Descartes's Posts

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CultureRe: How Do You Say "In Fact" In Your Language? by Descartes: 2:03pm On Aug 16, 2014
Kam gwagi nke bu ya wink
Nairaland GeneralRe: Stolen Babies Reunited With Parents In Imo by Descartes(op): 2:01pm On Aug 16, 2014
barcanista: na wa yu o.
I know it is inevitable with the crop of individuals we have on this very community angry
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 1:58pm On Aug 16, 2014

PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 1:52pm On Aug 16, 2014
homerac7: O yea! Thanks for pointing that out.

But that still puts it at 486/million/day. With NL at about 1.22 million members, that's = 1.22 x 486/ day. That's extremely high sir.

Solution:
1. Better distributed data. (There's a formulae that gives minimum data sample for given population and distribution. Sorry, my book aren't here.)
2. Find the population of multiple monikers to develop a probability value for them.
3. Solve using 1&2 in Bayes theorem.

Think that should work better

Good luck bro. wink
Mind you am working with an initial population obtained on 7/08/2014 @12:40pm which is 1217150 members.
Now use the population formula with growth rate of 0.0486% for the past 9days ie when t= 9.
You will come close to a figure of 1222366 @12.40pm as @today, with error of 0.009%wink
The formula is N(t)=N(1+r)^t or Ne^rt cool
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 11:28am On Aug 16, 2014
arewarepublic: To reduce the marginal error, you will have to monitor for as long as a year.

Nairaland admin could also help you with previous data. wink
Yea, but with this rate and the error i can vividly get the population of the previous year using population growth formula. tongue
For instance let say two yeas ago i.e when t=-2,
Using either; N(t)=N(1+r)^t or N(t)=Ne^rt wink cool
PhonesRe: Nigerians Are Giving Up On Android, Want Their Blackberry Back by Descartes:
Android Rules, Berry can go and die cheesy cheesy
Android till berry does the needful cool
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 10:37am On Aug 16, 2014
arewarepublic: Good to see you use good part of your time for other things more important than Nairaland.grin


How did you arrive at 0.0486%?

I have never observed the membership growth rate, but from the period it reached up to a million members to now, there is an average of about 500 registered members/ day which makes your figure moderate.

But hope you ll take into consideration the at which members open multiple accounts.



Babu amarya sai 'yan mata...cool
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 10:35am On Aug 16, 2014
arewarepublic: I also believe the period is short, but going by the result of 0.048% not 4.5% as you claim, I think the estimated value isn't too bad.
Am still monitoring it cos the error margin is still @ 0.34% with growth rate of 0.0486%
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 10:33am On Aug 16, 2014
homerac7: Chai !!! Voodoo statistics.

Me think the period of observation is too short and that is an error flag by itself. Moreover if u work with ur 4.5% daily grown rate, do a simple forecast into next 100 days and tell me if ur projection makes sense.
Yea, still monitoring it, cos find out that the error margin is stll very wide,
0.0486% and error margin of 0.34%. angry
Am just keeping record of the data, wink
Will still take it over some period of time cool
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 9:42am On Aug 16, 2014
suwailad: Marylin Ogargarrrr working for aso rock police since she started warming GEJ's bed since 1870!
So you are part of the BED-WARMING crew huh tongue
PoliticsRe: Adamawa: Defectors Yet To Get PDP Waiver by Descartes(op): 9:29am On Aug 16, 2014
egift: If Marwa do not get the the PDP's Ticket, he will come off as the biggest looser of the Adamawa Governorship election. If he stayed in APC, he would have been on track to Government House.

With Ribadu, APC has this on lock-down - Ribadu the next Governor of Adamawa State - (even PDP has endorsed it). Up APC!
Don't conclude yet cos politics is a game of chess and many permutations and combinations(Combinatorics) are involved.
Being a game of chess many political pawns are meant to be sacrificed on the Adamawa's political chess board.
Defintely either of the two cool
CelebritiesRe: Iyanya's Manager, Ubi Franklin In Ghastly Car Accident (photos) by Descartes:
Chai, embarassed
Wish him very quick recovery smiley
EducationRe: Do All Senior Prefects(girl/boy) End Up Studing Medicine/Professional courses? by Descartes: 9:23am On Aug 16, 2014
It seems, smiley
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 9:20am On Aug 16, 2014
arewarepublic: Good to see you use good part of your time for other things more important than Nairaland.grin


How did you arrive at 0.048%?

I have never observed the membership growth rate, but from the period it reached up to a million members to now, there is an average of about 500 registered members/ day which makes your figure moderate.

But hope you ll take into consideration the at which members open multiple accounts.



Babu amarya sai 'yan mata...cool
Yea, that was taken into account, monitored it for 7days; from 12:40pm on 7th— 14th August @12:40pm.
And about 40% of this population have atleast three monickers lipsrsealed lipsrsealed tongue
CelebritiesRe: General Overseers Wife In Baby Factory Scandal, Flees To USA by Descartes: 9:02am On Aug 16, 2014
Peppyluv: Southwest tongue
Nne i biakwa, cholu ka osi n'onu puta tongue
PoliticsRe: Chadian Soldiers Release Most Of Boko Haram's Captives, Kill Several Terrorists: by Descartes: 9:01am On Aug 16, 2014
idumuose: Good!Good! Welcome bro
From my research, Nairaland is one of the fastest online growing community with growth rate of 0.048% shocked with accuracy of ±.005%. wink
and about 40% of this population have atleast three monickers lipsrsealed lipsrsealed
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op):
egift: Zoologist Jonathan coordinating Corruption and illegality since October 1st Abuja Bombing 2010 grin
Since man is a higher animal, is it not good to be taken care of by a Zoologist you inclusive huh tongue
PoliticsRe: Chadian Soldiers Release Most Of Boko Haram's Captives, Kill Several Terrorists: by Descartes: 8:48am On Aug 16, 2014
idumuose: Long time.kedu ebe i no since?
Nna, have been busy with my research work on Population Dynamics, an aspect of Demographics Analysis using Nairaland as a case study. smiley
Also with a project on an online RDBMS which have been kerping me very busy in the Lab. angry
Udo ga-nachi. cool
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 8:42am On Aug 16, 2014
arewarepublic: It is most depressing a youth like you thinks speaking against the corruption, terrorism and impunity of the ruling party is depressing. tongue cry
Do you agree with my claim on growth rate of Nairaland huh
PoliticsRe: Chadian Soldiers Release Most Of Boko Haram's Captives, Kill Several Terrorists: by Descartes: 8:40am On Aug 16, 2014
A Nigerian security official said Chadian soldiers killed most of the terrorists and set free most of the captives.
What a lie angry
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 8:33am On Aug 16, 2014
arewarepublic: Aboki, kwana biyu. You go annual leave ni?
Am busy with my research work on "Population Dynamics" as an aspect of Demographic Analysis using Nairaland as a case study.
Also have been on many other project on RDBMS for my Organisation.
Am gonna publish the research soon.
From my observation, NAIRALAND is one of the fastest growing online community with a growth rate of 0.048% per day cool
Yaya amariya huh
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 8:27am On Aug 16, 2014
arewarepublic: It is even more depressing to see that some people who may have gone through the four walls of a classroom come online to defend this classic show of shame.
And it is very much depressing seeing you defending your party online as a Nigerian youth . tongue
RomanceRe: . by Descartes: 8:14am On Aug 16, 2014
the truth is, since that incident that got me pregnant and have a baby outside wed lock, i never did it again. i try hard not to share my body with another man ever again except you. I've been in several situation where i would have done it again, but i didn't. please don't be angry with me any more. am on my knees with tears in my eyes. i said i love you and never want to hurt you nor put you in a hurtful situation.
Tell me is not one of the gimmicks tongue
PoliticsRe: Chadian Soldiers Release Most Of Boko Haram's Captives, Kill Several Terrorists: by Descartes: 8:11am On Aug 16, 2014
Source huh
CelebritiesRe: General Overseers Wife In Baby Factory Scandal, Flees To USA by Descartes: 8:07am On Aug 16, 2014
Southern part of the country huh
Hmmm...South...comes to mind lipsrsealed embarassed
Nairaland GeneralRe: Stolen Babies Reunited With Parents In Imo by Descartes(op): 8:04am On Aug 16, 2014
VantagePoint: Tribal e-warriors getting set to fight ..
*Goes to stadium to watch with bottle of claro and some dongoyaro*
Am still at the sideline for the showdown grin grin
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 7:47am On Aug 16, 2014
Politics in Naija
PoliticsRe: APC Reacts To Ogar On Osun Election by Descartes(op): 7:37am On Aug 16, 2014
omenka: That woman knows no better than a pepper seller in a village market when it comes to the job of law enforcement.

I wish the party didn't even dignify her inane remarks with a response.
You go kill person for Nairaland. grin cheesy cheesy
RomanceRe: . by Descartes: 7:35am On Aug 16, 2014
@poster, you still dey apologise, huhna only you waka come tongue huh

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