DIS WEEK MARKET ANALYSIS, EUR is likely to remain under selling pressure as the uncertainty factor rises. With potential Sovereign Credit Downgrades for Italy and Spain, plus the upcoming rulings of German Constitution Court on the validity of the ESM, and more news out of Greece, I believe EUR is a good candidate to SELL on rally, especially after Friday’s weekend consolidation. USD is likely to remain in demand, although we should watch Bernanke’s testimony for any hints on QE3. If Bernanke does not talk about QE3, then expect to see a surge in USD as traders discount the possibility of an July/August announcement. JPY is likely to remain range-bound, although it is well-supported at the current level, but I will probably look to SELL JPY against USD ONLY but BUY JPY against other currencies as recent BOJ lack of action should help to strength the yen in the short term. CAD is likely to remain strong against other currencies but USDCAD should be a BUY on dips, as recent China GDP data is supporting commodities and commodity currencies. GBP is likely to follow the direction of the Euro, therefore I’d recommend a SELL on rally. AUD and NZD are likely to remain well-supported in the short term, but their upside potential is capped in my opinion as global recovery weighs on risk sentiment. I’d be looking to SELL both currencies, especially against USD, on recent resistance levels, as the relieve rally on Friday could provide us with excellent entries during early week… All in all, I no longer expect further AUD strength as the long term view is to SELL on rallies.

As far as the news trading front, we’ve got a busy week coming up, and here are the tradable releases:
1.Mon July 16, 2012 – 8:30am EST – US Core Retail Sales
2.Mon July 16, 2012 – 6:45pm EST – NZ CPI q/q
3.Tue July 17, 2012 – 4:30am EST – UK CPI y/y
4.Tue July 17, 2012 – 8:30am EST – US Core CPI
5.Tue July 17, 2012 – 9:00am EST – CA BOC Interest Rate
6.Wed July 18, 2012 – 4:30am EST – UK MPC Minutes
7.Thu July 19, 2012 – 4:30am EST – UK Retail Sales
8.Thu July 19, 2012 – 10:00am EST – US Existing Home Sales
9.Fri July 20, 2012 – 8:30am EST – CA Core CPI



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