₦airaland Forum

ositadima1:
The funny thing is that Arab nations initially accepted the return of the Jews, but then Israel began expanding beyond the land that was allocated to it. Because it had the backing of Britain and the United States, it was able to capture more territory and displace the people living there, the Palestinians.

Why, then, would you expect there to be peace? Not only that, Israel and the United States have been influencing Arab and Persian states in ways that have limited their military strength. This is one reason we see various groups engaging in guerrilla warfare against Israel.

Israel seeks greater control in the Middle East to influence regional outcomes. This is why Iran is being targeted, and some argue that if Iran is weakened, countries like Turkey could be next, there are already statements from some Israeli leaders portraying Turkey as an even greater concern than Iran.

At its core, this conflict is about power and control, not what it is often presented to be.

This is 99 percent correct!

lionshare:
What’s in it for the UK? All these niceties can’t be for nothing.

Oil and gas supply!

Another mumu has died because of lack of wisdom.

TUANKU:
China... Big for nothing with substandard hardware compared to Russia and the US, their fighter jets and radars failed miserably in Venezuela and Pakistan.

And you use electronics from China?

WriteerNg:

---

Yes they do.

Iran struck 8 countries in the Middle East all armed with the best US air defense systems and still hit them hard.

Iran hit Israel even harder. US air defense systems were no where to be found.

There is no superman in war especially when you meet your match.

The USA is already begging for peace talks and it is not even up to 2 weeks of fight.

This action film go too sweet o!

Since these savages like war,then let them enjoy it

emmanuelewumi:
For team Omatek.


Reason why we should invest with numbers

But 'the stock price appreciated in price team' will soon counter you comment.

nosa2:
Where do they get the supply from?

From the ones the market maker already have and from the floor of the secondary market.

If the market maker wants ACCESSCORP to get to ₦50 in 2 months ,it will definately be done.The market maker largely controls demand and supply in the secondary market .

nosa2:
What methods do you think they are using to suppress it?

Heavy supply of ACCESSCORP stocks by market maker at their acceptable price range.

I'm quite sure ACCESSCORP's management is supressing the price movement so that the dividend yield would seem big and/or they are still buying.

nosa2:
I like the way you think though I don't agree with it but then your conclusion (in italics) is just wild

If it is not manipulation,what on earth would make First Bank to be higher than ACCESSCORP?

I'm very sure ACCESSCORP's price is being supressed by insiders just like FirstHoldco is being pumped by insiders. And that is why I don't measure the real value of a stock by the current market price.

ositadima1:
The Cost of Equity: Why This Number Dominates Everything
If there is one input that dominates this valuation above all others, it is the cost of equity. Let me be very explicit about the calculation.
The risk-free rate is the Nigerian Federal Government bond yield. As of late 2025, ten-year FGN bonds trade at approximately 18.5%, and I use that as the risk-free rate. The equity risk premium has two components: the base US equity risk premium, which Damodaran estimates at approximately 4.6% for a mature market, and the Nigeria-specific country risk premium. Damodaran's approach values the country risk premium using the sovereign credit default spread scaled by the relative equity market volatility. For Nigeria in 2025, this country risk premium works out to approximately 7.9%, giving a total equity risk premium of 4.6% + 7.9% = 12.5%.

For the beta, I use a bottom-up approach. Nigerian commercial banks historically have betas relative to the NGX in the range of 0.75 to 0.90. Access Holdings is the largest bank by assets, which gives it high systemic exposure to Nigerian macro, but its pan-African diversification across 17+ countries provides some offset. I use a beta of 0.80, which is reasonable for a large-cap systemically important bank.
Putting it together: cost of equity = 18.5% + (0.80 × 12.5%) = 18.5% + 10.0% = 28.5%. This is in naira nominal terms. In USD real terms, applying a naira depreciation assumption of 10–12% per year and adjusting for the inflation differential, the equivalent USD cost of equity is roughly 12–14%, which is consistent with how international investors value frontier and emerging market banks. Both approaches reach similar conclusions about intrinsic value when applied correctly.

The sensitivity of the valuation to this number cannot be overstated. At 26% cost of equity, intrinsic value rises to roughly ₦28–30/share. At 31%, it falls to ₦14–16/share. I will return to this in the scenarios.

Building the FCFE Model and Discounting It
For a bank, Free Cash Flow to Equity is simply the cash that can be paid out to shareholders after retaining enough earnings to support future growth while maintaining adequate capital ratios. The formula is: FCFE = Net Income − Equity Reinvestment Required.
In the near term, as established above, FCFE is negative or near zero because the bank is growing its balance sheet far faster than retained earnings can fund. Annualized net income is approximately ₦568,936 million, but equity reinvestment needed to support 25% asset growth is approximately ₦813,000 million, implying negative FCFE of roughly ₦244,000 million. This is not a distress signal — it is what fast-growing banks look like. The bank funds the gap through deposit growth and wholesale borrowings, which is visible in the ₦10.6 trillion surge in customer deposits. But it does mean shareholders receive minimal free cash in the near term, which depresses current intrinsic value.

Looking forward across a three-phase model, Phase 1 covers 2025 through 2027 with net income growing at 15–18% per year in naira nominal terms as the high interest rate environment and loan book seasoning continue to compound. Net income reaches approximately ₦660,000 million in 2026 and ₦760,000 million in 2027. Asset growth slows toward 15–18% as the deposit surge normalizes, reducing equity reinvestment needs. FCFE in this phase is approximately ₦170,000 to ₦240,000 million per year. Phase 2 from 2028 through 2031 sees growth tapering toward 10–12% as the rate cycle turns and the loan book matures. Net income reaches ₦850,000 to ₦1,030,000 million by 2030, with asset growth slowing to 12%. FCFE expands meaningfully to ₦310,000–₦450,000 million as reinvestment needs shrink relative to income. In the stable phase from 2032 onward, I assume perpetual growth of 8% in naira nominal terms, which is roughly Nigeria's long-run nominal GDP trajectory. Terminal FCFE is approximately ₦660,000 million.

Discounting the Phase 1 and Phase 2 FCFE streams back at 28.5% produces a present value of approximately ₦820,000 million. This is the meat of the valuation — actual cash deliverable to shareholders before the terminal value.
The terminal value is calculated as ₦660,000 million divided by (0.22 − 0.08), where 0.22 is the stable-phase cost of equity (which I allow to compress from 28.5% as Nigeria's macro presumably stabilizes over a decade) and 0.08 is the terminal growth rate. That gives a terminal value of ₦660,000 / 0.14 = ₦4,714,286 million. I discount this terminal value back eight years at a blended rate reflecting the transition from 28.5% to 22%, applying a discount factor of approximately 0.090, giving a present value of terminal value of ₦4,714,286 × 0.090 = ₦424,286 million. Note that the terminal value only contributes 34% of total equity value (424,286 / 1,244,286), which is actually encouraging — it means the valuation is not being carried by heroic assumptions about the distant future.

Total equity value = ₦820,000 + ₦424,286 = ₦1,244,286 million.
Dividing by 53,317,838,433 shares outstanding gives ₦1,244,286,000,000 / 53,317,838,433 = ₦23.34 per share before the AT1 adjustment. The Additional Tier 1 Capital of ₦206,355 million is a perpetual instrument with a discretionary coupon that ranks ahead of ordinary equity in distributions — economically it behaves like senior equity and its coupon (₦107,628 million paid in nine months, annualized to roughly ₦143,000 million) is a claim ahead of ordinary shareholders. Deducting the AT1 capital of ₦206,355 million from total equity value and dividing by shares gives an adjusted intrinsic value per share of (₦1,244,286 − ₦206,355) / 53,317.8 = ₦1,037,931 / 53,317.8 = ₦19.47 per share in the base case.

Sanity Check: What Do the Multiples Say?
It is worth pausing here to verify that these numbers make sense relative to market comparables.
At an intrinsic value of ₦1,244,286 million for total equity, the implied price-to-normalized earnings multiple is ₦1,244,286 / ₦490,000 = 2.5x. Nigerian bank P/E multiples have historically ranged from 2x to 6x, with the large banks typically at 3–5x in normal years, so 2.5x is conservative but not unreasonable given the current rate environment and capital cycle. The implied price-to-book on tangible equity of ₦3,308,010 million (total equity less intangibles of ₦417,468 million) is ₦1,244,286 / ₦3,308,010 = 0.38x. This compares to GTCO at roughly 0.8–1.1x tangible book, Zenith at 0.5–0.7x, and UBA at 0.3–0.5x. At 0.38x, Access Holdings is priced cheaper than GTCO and Zenith but roughly in line with UBA. That relative positioning feels approximately right: Access is a larger, faster-growing franchise than UBA but arguably less capital-efficient than GTCO in the near term.

The price-to-Pre-Provision Operating Income comes out at ₦1,244,286 / ₦960,000 = 1.3x, meaning you are paying 1.3 years of franchise-level earnings before credit costs. For a bank with a 15-year+ track record of surviving multiple Nigerian currency and macro crises, that seems like a modest price if you believe the impairment cycle is near its peak.

The Three Scenarios in Full
The base case as derived above gives ₦19–24 per share with central estimate ₦19.47 after the AT1 adjustment. This assumes normalized ROE of 14–15%, COE declining from 28.5% to 22% over ten years, terminal growth of 8%, and terminal FCFE of ₦660,000 million.
The downside case assumes that the CBN recapitalization exercise forces Access Holdings to raise significant new equity at or below book value, diluting the per-share economics materially. If the bank raises ₦500,000 million in new equity at current prices, it would add approximately 15–20 billion new shares to the float, diluting intrinsic value per share by roughly 25–30%. Simultaneously, if the new capital is deployed into lower-return assets than the existing book — which is common in forced recapitalizations — normalized ROE compresses to 12%. Running the model with 12% ROE, 28.5% COE throughout (no compression assumed if Nigeria deteriorates), and 6% terminal growth gives a terminal value of ₦360,000 / (0.28 − 0.06) = ₦360,000 / 0.22 = ₦1,636,364 million and a present value of approximately ₦147,000 million. Adding discounted Phase 1–2 FCFE of roughly ₦480,000 million gives total equity value of approximately ₦627,000 million, or about ₦11.76 per share on the diluted share count. This is the ₦12–15 range I cited at the top.

The upside case assumes the recapitalization is successfully executed at attractive terms, new capital is deployed into high-return opportunities across the African network at ROE of 17–18%, and Nigeria's macro stabilizes sufficiently to allow the COE to compress to 20% in the terminal phase. Terminal FCFE rises to ₦900,000 million on higher earnings. Terminal value becomes ₦900,000 / (0.20 − 0.10) = ₦900,000 / 0.10 = ₦9,000,000 million, with present value of approximately ₦810,000 million. Discounted Phase 1–2 FCFE of ₦1,200,000 million gives total equity value of roughly ₦2,010,000 million, or ₦37.69 per share. This is the ₦32–42 range.

What Could Break This and What Would Prove It Right
The three risks that could push the stock to the downside scenario or below are all related to things outside management's control. A renewed sharp naira devaluation — not the gradual depreciation modeled here but a step-down of 30–40% in a single CBN intervention — would cause massive mark-to-market losses on the naira-denominated loan book and trigger a new round of provisioning. The FX translation reserve already shows a cumulative loss of ₦707,555 million at September 2025 (down from ₦979,653 million at January 2025), meaning the bank has already absorbed ₦272,098 million in unrealized FX losses this year alone. Another sharp devaluation would hit both the P&L and regulatory capital simultaneously. The second risk is a credit cycle following the loan book's rapid growth. Loans grew from ₦5,100,807 million in December 2022 to ₦12,894,263 million in September 2025, a 152% increase in less than three years. Bank loan books typically season over 24–36 months, meaning the NPL cycle from loans originated in 2023 and 2024 would peak in 2025–2027. The 141% surge in impairment charges in 2025 may be the beginning of that cycle, not the end of it. Third, the recapitalization. The CBN's directive requiring international commercial banks to reach a minimum capital base of ₦500,000 million creates meaningful dilution risk if Access needs to raise external capital in a challenging market environment.

What would prove the bull case right is simpler: watch the impairment charge. If Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 impairments stabilize or decline from the Q3 run rate of ₦119,915 million per quarter, the credit cycle is passing and normalized earnings of ₦490,000 million or higher are achievable. Watch the capital raise: if Access successfully issues new equity at prices above ₦20/share, it validates the intrinsic value and signals management confidence. And watch the NII margin: with CBN rates likely to begin declining in 2026, the question is how much of the 49% NII growth is rate-driven versus volume-driven. If volume accounts for the majority, the franchise is building durable earnings power.

Final Thought
Access Holdings is one of those situations where the math looks cheap but the uncertainty is high enough that it should not be a large position for anyone without a clear view on Nigerian macro. At ₦19–24/share, you are paying about 0.38x tangible book for a bank that earns 14–16% on equity, has grown total assets at a compounded 25%+ over five years, and operates the most geographically diversified banking network in sub-Saharan Africa. The normalized earnings yield at the base case valuation is approximately 39% in naira terms, which is compelling on paper. The catch is that 28.5% of that is consumed by the cost of equity before you see a real return. The margin of safety is real but not enormous. At ₦15 or below, it would be difficult to make a bearish case on a five-year view. At ₦30 or above, the upside scenario would need to materialize in full to justify holding. Somewhere in between is where the honest answer lives.

Numbers first, narratives later.
-- ositadima1

Professor,na because of ACCESSCORP make you write full Finance textbook?

First Bank is ₦50+ while ACCESSCORP is close to ₦28 .

ACCESSCORP is superior to First Bank.

The price of the stock of a company is never the measure of its real value.It is clear to everyone that the price of a stock of a company can be manipulated.

Streetinvestor2:
The ceo of kpakus must be member of apc which could be reason why efcc have not invited him.Someone once claimed here they have commissioned thr oil mill.Whr is thr palm oil till date.Why is it not available in the market

He is likely a member of the broom party.

nedu666:
We are back to the obj era of promising ipo that sucked people money. Geofluid, daar dem

You're definately right.

Streetinvestor2:
People can be chameleon on this thread oh.They speak from different side of thr mouth on same stock in just one week.
Look at thr past post on
Kpakus
Japaul
Zich latest scam alert

They are the green snakes under green grass!

Mpeace:
Despite everything, Ellah is not giving up.
https://businessday.ng/companies/article/ellah-lakes-targets-q1-for-arpn-acquisition-deal/

Yahoo men who have invaded the NGX

emmanuelewumi:
Actively using Ellah Lakes playbook

So Yahoozee gangs have invaded the NGX. This their format go soon cast.

chimex38:
So Access bank will officially pay dividend..
More like it.

No, it is the Zirchis(First Bank aka Last Bank)of the banking industry that will not pay dividend but the price will soon get to ₦100.

emmanuelewumi:
Do you understand the business behind the stock. Just a poultry farm

There are poultry farms worth more than ₦100 billion in Nigeria! Like Obasanjo farms.

nosa2:
I won't call it a scam, I just think the management tried to cash in on the hype about palm oil. If you look at it from that perspective they kind of succeeded.

So let call it foolery!

nosa2:
The company has a lot of value. The management just needs to shut up and focus on running their business. Too much financial engineering going on and not enough actual palm oil business

This is like a scam.

nosa2:
People are now openly mentioning N1 for this stock..... how sentiments change

I can never buy it for 50 Kobo!

crownprince2017:
Peter how far with the star boy na in agba voice..

I'm still waiting for that your usual pix..

Ellah don pour sand inside una garri..

So you done sell?

I thought you're a life time Ellah lekos investor?

zendi:
1) Do you have Japaul to dump on me, abeg?

2) Ellah to the moon, when it bottoms out.
The strong allure of the sector, plus Preskomu success contagion, will still drive the bus, powerfully.

Only the jijo-minded will understand.

Enter with Gamble funds.

Where is Anini of Bendel state,where is Derico of Anambra and where is Godogodo of Lagos,Ogun and Oyo states?

Lekos, Zirchis (abi Ezekiel),and Japaulwood would definitely end like those notorious armed robbers I mentioned.

Streetinvestor2:
I have been laughing so loud about kpakus as I named it.I cannot believe my eyes from all the deceivers here new position/post on the same kpakus they all ganged up to crucify me in the past.You all should all hide your faces in shame.I don't know how to pretend .

I won't be surprised this week for kpakus to only be seeing offer no bid when the news spread enough and people will be trapped

This is the season of lamentations of monkey owners!

Like Ellah Lekos,like Zirchis, like Japaulwood.
I think my prophecy is about to come to pass.

What an old or wise man sees while sitting;a young or a foolish man will never see it even if he climbs to the top of an iroko tree.

megawealth01:
JAPAULstone 😂

Or Japaulclay!

PETERiCHY:
See them Agba, Street-fighter. Edu & Co plotting their next propaganda move

I only indulge in jijo or trading( portfolio reshuffling) with living stocks(companies with good financial health and long dividend history).

You can be caught unaware while trying to jump in and jump out with the likes of Ellah pekos and JapaulStone!

Komot

iichidodo:
That's why it's good to play in the Champion's league. You get to test your mettle against the best and valued as such... At this point we can say Oshimen is a £100 million striker.
Check my signature if you got problems securing Accomodations in Abuja..

I think €150 million is the best value for Osimhen.

donleo92:
This guy work rate na dieeee..

Him truly hawk gala and pure water

He was made on the street and he is a real hustler.

If Nigeria has 10 players like Osimhen,the Super Eagles will win the world cup before 12 years.

Rmichael23:
You are not alone on this, I also requested a withdrawal on Friday, they also acknowledged but I have not been paid up till now.

Is the value in tens or hundreds of million?

BabsO2:
It is not a good sign if insiders are selling. Perhaps a large fund is bent on exiting. Or perhaps some in the know of bad acquisitions and impending impairments is exiting.

I meant insiders are buying and not selling.

ACCESSCORP is the biggest Nigerian bank; and it is a pan-african international bank like UBA.

Mpeace:
2030 far oh. By then I don't become Local government chairman, dey chop monthly allocation. Lol

So,you want to join the pen robbers(polithiefcians) or you're already one?