₦airaland Forum

Guestmale:
Waste of time and misplaced priority, instead of them to reign on and pressure the Hamas to do the needful.

So, the Palestinian people should be starved to death.

It is the people dying and not Hamas. Hamas may not be moved.

She's going to be the British prime minister some day.

I amjust stating what I see and not what I want.

I really don't care.

Tinubu will never go for a Muslim Christian ticket. It would be dead on arrival. He would lose Northern votes.

This is ridiculous. Nigeria is simply too far.

Countries best suited are those in Pacific island countries in Australasia such as Fiji, Tuvalu, Solomon Island, Samoa and so on.

He would have been the next president had he not been too ambitious and greedy.

All vice-presidents ever since have learnt their lesson, and have been loyal to their boss, even bending over backwards in the case of Osinbajo to cope with PMB's nindblowing incompetence.

I'm certain he was Buhari's choice but liver no make Buhari pick am. Buhari made the wise choice.

The foreign reserves quoted here does not paint the true picture.

There's the foreign reserves and net foreign reserves.

The net foreign reserves is the actual forex the CBN has access to, and not just on paper.

For instance, this graphic shows the foreign reserves at $35bn when Tinubu took office.

Yet, the CBN was owing purchasers of foreign exchange $7bn. The forex scarcity was so bad that some multinationals pulled out of the country, such as GSK and Shoprite

The reality was that there was only $4bn in the net foreign reserves, not even enough to cover 1 month of imports. Emefiele had deceived the entire nation.

The net foreign reserves has risen to $40bn today, enough to cover 8 months of imports.

Wike had better enjoy this 4 years.

The next 4 years, Tinubu will dump most of all politically motivated appointees and only use technocrats.

By then, he would have repaid all political debts, and he isn't seeking re-election as that would be his final term.

It is usually the second term that presidents perform best. They don't have to pander to politicians or the people. That's when they'll bear their fangs.

He might still need Wike so as to still wield control over rhe nation's judiciary, but he might decide to find a way round it.

Believeintruth:
Isn't it ironic that the same you was chanting and shouting Sai Buhari, Sai Baba. Why ate you now saying he destroyed the economy from 2015?

I have never supported Buhari. My history here will defend me

I have q good understanding of economics, so I can tell a good one from bad, and the likely damage.

Look at my thread below:

https://www.nairaland.com/2778962/naira-hit-300-dollar-2019

givedemwotowoto:
In 2023, most people in Lagos voted against Tinubu. The same people voted for Sanwo Olu and other APC members at the state and local level. Now Nigerians are experiencing the most extreme hardship and insecurity from day 1 of his government.

2027 is going to be a massive vote against Tinubu regardless of party affiliation.

When Buhari was destroying the economy from 2015, why didn't you call him out? When he assumed office, 26% of government revenue was going towards debt servicing. By 2023, it was 97%.

The painful reforms he initiated were necessary. They have been praised by most economists, including Soludo and Okonjo-Iweala.

Peter Obi and Atiku said they were going to eliminate petrol subsidies. They also mentioned they were going to merge the exchange rates, which Tinubu did through floating the currency

The pain, was unavoidable. Blame Buhari was completely wrecking the economy.

jmoore:
Our foreign reserve reached 47 billion dollars in 2018 under Buhari.

Buhari was paying subsidy and was defending naira.

Tinubu is not paying subsidy and has devalued naira.

Our foreign reserve should be hitting above 100 billion dollars currently.

When Tinubu took over, there was $4bn in net foreign reserves, and the CBN was owing forex buyers $7bn. The net foreign reserves could not even cover one month worth of imports.

The fx scarcity was so bad that many multinationals left the country because of it. GSK and Shoprite are two good examples.

It is also an indication that Enefiele wasn't transparent. He always painted rosy foreign reserves but was really the figure? What were the net foreign reserves, the actual forex the CBN had access to, and not the gross figure.

If forex was so buoyant, why was there forex scarcity?

From $4bn or actually -$3bn, to net $40bn in two years is a massive achievement,

The feat is even more glaring considering that then, in 2023, 97% of government revenue was going towards debt servicing. The government was basically bankrupt.

Now, with the elimination of the petrol subsidy, the floating the Naira, and improved revenue generation, less than 50% of government revenue now goes towards debt servicing.

AngelahFlo:
Suicide is never an Option! Her pride got in the way and she...
So sad

Pride or shame?

Elvina Ibru was molested and she did not hide it, despite the stigma.

Therock5555:
May the people responsible for her suicide never know peace.....

Don't stress yourself.

Whatever a man sows, he shall reap.

If he gets away in this world, he shall never enter God's kingdom.

bewisemasses:
Market forces.
But does this regime have any plans to get this fuel price to where they met it
What plans do other contestants have?
We desperately need well structured public debates btw our political aspirants

Why don't you try and educate yoursaelf?

When Buhari assumed office, the government was spending N26 out of every N100 of government revenue on debt servicing. By 2023 whne he was leaving office N97 out of N100 was spent servicing debt.

One of the reasons why government was borrowing so much was to provide Nigerians with very cheap petrol via petrol subsidy.

With the removal of the petrol subsidy and the floating of the Naira, and other reforms, debt servcing now consumes less than N50 out of every N100.

The price of crude oil at the present price of $66/barrel would be about N500/litre. If you want it to go back to less tha N200/litre for petrol, that would be a subsidy of at least N300/litre. It is cheaper to buy petrol than its raw material, crude oil. The country has not included refining cost.

Witha subsidized price demand may hit 60m litres per day. That is about N18bn a day or about 7 trillion a year. It would be much more because refining cost and transportation costs haven't been included. It may cost up to 10 trillion a year. The government budget deficit this year is already 15tr. You now add another 10 trillion. That deficit is now 25 tr.

Bola Tibunu has a daughter is is rumored to be gay.

What's all this about?

trillville:
This is 100 percent wrong. Exchange rates change due to many reasons such as interest rates, supply of money, demand for exportable products, sovereign wealth funds (savings in foreign currencies), etc.

Your approach of blaming Buhari for borrowing money and excessively using the ways and means, for the collapse of the Naira is bad.

If you were made president in 2015, what economic steps would you have taken and what results do you think you would have achieved?

Remember that oil prices were low and Nigeria had no savings.

I am not an economic illiterate! I said "for instance" when mentioning ways and means. It is simply one of the fiscal or monetary reasons a currency may rise and fall. In forex trading, there are over 50 reasons. A natural disaster can even ruin a currency. The Beirut port blast was the straw that broke the camel's back for the Lebanese economy, and eventually sent the local currency into a free fall.

What steps would I have taken to prevent a recession in 2015?

1. Slash company taxes

Slashing company taxes will spur investment, both portfolio and FDI. Portfolio investment would be felt almost immediately as it would lead to a massive inflow of money into the stockmarket.

Slashing company taxes means companies retained profits would increase which would attract investors into the stocks.

Foreign Direct Investment would also flood in as investments always flood low tax jurisdictions. An ambitious privatization programme should have been carried out as a way to bring in revenue due to declining crude oil prices. Foreign investment to buy up government companies is considered FDI.

The government should also have cut spending. He should have cut the size of the civil service. He should also have fully deregulated the price of petrol as Tinubu as done. Buhari had the opportunty to do so in 2016 but did not grab the opportunity but simply increased the price to 145/litre in 2016. Eventually, the government ended up borrwing massively to provide the petrol subsidies.

A full scale deregulation of the price would have led to an investment boom in refinery construction.

There was an urgency to cut spending due to declining crude oil prices but he refused to do so. He was a popularist and said he did not want Nigerians to suffer. Did Nigerians not eventually suffer, far worse than he anticipated?

The policies enumerated above would have been sufficient to stave off a recession. It would also add many of the policies that Tinubu has implemented.

Buhari pegging of the exchange rate upon assumption of office in 2015 was the worst thing to have done at the time. The price of your major foreign exchange earner is collapsing which would mean foreign exchange inflow would automatically reduce as well. With a reduction in inflow, the currency would depreciate.

Buhari said he did not believe in devaluation, and Emefiele complied with his economic illiterate instructions, despite the autonomy the CBN had.

Eventually, the currency depreciated in the worst possible way. The official rate (audio rate) stayed stable, while the Naira depreciated steeply at the black market where people rushed to purchase fx when they could no longer get sufficient quantities at the audio rate.

So, prices of goods and services were eventually sold at the depreciated black market rate. The well connected bought at the official exchange rate, and resold at the parralel or black market rate. This was round tripping, and it boomed during Buheria's government due to the huge disparity between the exchange rates.

Buhari had good advisers but refused to listen to them.

Tinubu has hired quality technocrats into many positions and is listening to them.

Tinubu's floating of the Naira has ended this brazen and blatant fraud.

free2ryhme:
For the records these were never afrobeat

when fela was alive none of these people here could call their songs afrobeat

Afrobeat is reserved only for fela musics

It is "Afrobeats" and not "Afrobeat."

I too used to make the same mistake.

"Nigeria Jaga Jaga" and Tetulla "You Don Hit My Cra" aren't afrobeats.

004gist:
Stop blaming exchange rate.

Exchange rate should not be devalued when we aren't producing much.


See the graph below. Note Buhari was In office 31 December 1983 – 27 August 1985 you can see how the economy tank in 1983 to 1985. During this time we entered recession for the first time.

Again Buhari came in 2015 b history repeated itself. Economy tank and we entered recession.

Tinubu is a culprit because he brought a disaster and he himself is not different from him

What determines whether your currency depreciates who appreciates isn't whether you produce something or nothing. It is all down to fundamentals.

For instance, if there's 10 trillion naira in circulation and there's $10bn available, the exchange rate will be $1-N1,000.

If the federal government now asks the CBN to print 5 trillion to lend to it to cover thecbudget deficit, there will now be 15 trillion. If the dollars remain constant, the currency will depreciate to $1-N1,500. The excessive use of ways and means, which is the printing of money to lend to the government was a primary reason for the Nairas worsening value under Buhari.

PlasmaTV:
Your current government is aiding and abetting terrorists.

Jonathan went hard after terrorists but APC folks vilified him till he was chased out of office.

A few years later, the country is in a very funny state as APC has evidently lost control of the country - security wise, economic wise, every single wise.

APC is a cancer to Nigeria.

...And over 200 Chibok girls were kidnapped from their school.

Boko Haram was having a field day under Jonathan.

At the end of the day, the booth still shouldn't have been empty.

It was an ommission on their part.

Obaaderemi2:
Nigeria's first recession under Buhari was not in 2015. It was in 2016 and it was caused by low oil prices. By 2017 Nigeria was out of recession. It's still hard to prove that Buhari did more damage to the livelihood of Nigerians than Tinubu

2015 or 2016, basically the same thing.

Low oil prices could have triggered a recession but it was not definitive. Buhari's meddling and fixing the exchange rate was what swiftly collapsed the economy.

If there was ever going to be a recession due to low oil prices, it could have been easily prevented by slashing company taxes for instance to drive investments.

Many of the economic policies which Tinubu is implementing now should have been done then.

Read the article below. It's actually from 2016

https://www.nairaland.com/4861949/lamido-sanusi-laments-buharis-economic

Clairvoyancy:
Honestly speaking, this by-election does not decide how 2027 election will go... Nigerians does not really care about all these local government and the likes.... Even governorship election, majority no really send, except for some few state that they mean either the sitting governors or the ruling party... But you see that presidential sit, people mean am well well, all eyes on it...


But the issue is that I'm yet to see someone who can outsmart Tinubu in the game of r*gging... If anyone is waiting for free and fair election in Nigeria, such person should just rest abeg, it doesn't exist...

May God help us

Rigging can no longer decide elections this day and age. Election results are dependent largely on actual votes.

Tinubu didn't even win a majority in the last election. I doubt he even got more than 40%.

Tinubu's victory or demise will be determined largwly by his performance.

The economy has stabilised, and the present price levels are gradually becoming the new normal.

Power supply has improved remarkably. Security is improving. The States now have more cash than before and many are lavishing it on projects. Tinubu still wants to increase the share that goes to the states.

For infrastructure, the new billions of dollars being borrowed would be ploughed into transformative infrastructure projects. This are vote winners.

His chance of winning is over 70%. Even in Igbo land, he will definitely eat into Obi's huge popularity. I doubt Obi will get more than 75% of the votes come 2027, down from over 90% in 2027.

Obi's only base are the woke voters who consider him the Messiah.

We have only one messiah and that was Jesus. We shouldn't put our salvation in anyone, whether Obi or Tinubu (Read Psalms 136:3-5)

Obaaderemi2:
Nigeria went into recession during Buhari's time because of oil prices crises and COVID 19. If such happen again you would understand that Tinubu has done nothing out of the ordinary.

Wrong. Only the 2020 recession was due to Covid.

That of 2015-2017 was caused by the severe shortage of forex which was caused by the fixing of the exchange rates at very high rates the CBN could not defend- provide enough fx to at that rate

This create a huge depreciation at the black market.

At a point, the official rate was $1-N199 at the official market, and 520 at the black market. Lamido Sanusi said it should never br more than 3% as it would lead to distortions in the economy and a lot of nefarious activities. The World Bank said 5% was still bearable. At this rate, the differential was more than 150%. This led to massive roundtripping where the well connected bough5 at the official rate and swiftly disposed 8t at the black market rate.

The recession came to an end in 2017 when the CBN opened a second official window where the currency was allowed to devalue and market determined. This led to an end to the fx shortage. With fx available, companies could restart operations or increase production.

Obaaderemi2:
Nigeria went into recession during Buhari's time because of oil prices crises and COVID 19. If such happen again you would understand that Tinubu has done nothing out of the ordinary.

Wrong. Only the 2020 recession was due to Covid.

That of 2015-2017 was caused by the severe shortage of forex which was caused by the fixing of the exchange rates at very high rates the CBN could not defend- provide enough fx to at that rate

This create a huge depreciation at the black market.

At a point,

Arrowhead71:
Your Hamas releases hostages with display of insults against Israel and PM , and you think they want peace
You want war to end but you continue to provoke Israel with threat and weapons display and slanders, and you Hamas supporter don't see anything wrong that

Did I say I support Hamas?

What I am saying is that Israel should have stuck to the agreement despite how unpalatable it was. All the display Hamas was performing was all hubris.

It is only a weak man that beats his wife and thinks he is a man. They were enjoying their 5 minutes of fame.

The truth was Israel never wanted the hostage exchange in the first place. Biden wanted to take the glory of a prisoner exchange and hurriedly achieved one just days before Trump took office.

The deal was really no different from one Israel had rejected for months. Netanyahu wasn't ready to negotiate with Hamas and wanted the unconditional release of the hostages. It wanted to achieve this through military might.

FreeStuffsNG:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_RqQ27x0Vg?si=8Jzgm5q9XGeZE0El

Isreali accent is now the accent of "Baby Killers ". Smh

She did not deny it and doesn't even care to admit it to the journalist.

In the eyes of most people, this Gaza genocide by Isreal in Palestine suddenly makes the much hated Adolf Hitler seem like a Saint who tried to save future Palestinian babies from the hands of Isrealis. Smh.

The poor innocent children murdered in Gaza will get justice some day.

I support release of hostages, ending the war and prosecution of all those behind the genocide on both sides

That's the only way the world can avert this Gaza genocide calamity witnessed by this generation of humans.

Hamas never said they weren't releasing the hostages. There was an agreement signed to that effect and prisoner exchanges were going on, until Isreal pulled out of the deal, and said it was no longer prepared to release any more Palestinian prisoners in exchange for any Isreali hostages. A;; hostages must be released unconditionally.

When Hamas refused, Israel resumed the war.

Yorubastardz:
The goalkeeper during Nigeria vs India match that caught a shot from an Indian player and the ball turn into fire

That match never happened.

Indians aren't good in football. Their speciality is in cricket.

appleous:
This new Alaafin appears to be a cantankerous character.

As this is not the first time he is clashing with the Oni of Ife (not that the Oni is even a reasonable person), but I feel it's too early for him to be racking up enemies.

Unless they have prior scores to settle, which would make sense given their open animosity

The Alaafin is quite young. The Ooni might view him as a small boy.

I also sense money was involved in the conferment of the title, and might have made the Ooni act the way he did.

The Alaafin of Oyo has no power over the Olubadan and Oba of Lagos as Ibadan was a rival state, and Eko is under the Oba of Benin.

Edit:

It turns out the issue may be the conferment of anything with the term "of Yorubaland." Only the Alaafin of Oya has the monopoly it seems to use the term.

004gist:
We import a lot but produces nothing. A lot of companies has folded and productivity decline. Farmers can't farm successfully in the north n south and remember agriculture is a largest employer of labor.
.

What time did Nigeria devalued the currency? Because before then GDP has been going down.

Its unfortunate that apc came and half the GDP

The culprit is actually Buhari.

When he started messing up the economy in his first 30 days with his economic illiterate policies, Nigerian eminent economists such as Soludo and Lamido Sanusi called him out that those policies would destroy the economy. I myself sounded the alarm.

Rather than listen, he doubled down on them. Three times during his presidency, the economy slid into a recession. It was that bad. The proof of how bad it was can be discerned by the japa syndrome that enveloped the nation in the last 2 years of his government.

Tinubu has been praised for stabilizing the economy. The stabilization came at great cost which involved the floating of the currency which swiftly led to its massive devaluation, and the removal of the fuel subsidy.

What the economy needs now is rapid economic growth that will create wealth and lots of jobs.

Unfortunately for the Nigerian economy, Donald Trump's bad economic policies is sending the global economy into a downturn which has led to a reduction in the demand for crude oil, and a subsequent fall in the price. This will adversely affect the economy. Already, the reduced price of crude oil has led to revenue shortages which may compel the government to scrap all electricity subsidies much earlier than expected.

The economy may not grow as fast as expected.

A friend informed me that a consortium of banks lent him $1.5bn in 2002 or so, which was probably what he used todominate the diesel industry in Nigeria.

I don't know how true. It is true though that he went bankrupt when the price of crude oil crashed to $35 per barrel in 2009 from $140 the previous year. His creditors were on his neck!

The buying and selling of refined oils is a highly leveraged one.

My sister kept her maiden name and she's happily married.