₦airaland Forum

I'm surprised by his unusual humility and honesty.

A lot of people have no idea.

lordm:
Are you interesting in his tribe or ability to deliver.

This kind of stinky mentality drives me crazy. Is it only the Yorubas that have "ability to deliver" in a vast, multi ethnic country like Nigeria?

vanitybutiwanti:
Mr OP, Atiku has issues with funding. Obi cannot and would not provide the kind of Funds Amaechi has pledged for Atikus presidential bid. Amaechi doesn't talk about funds but people do not know that he is amongst the richest corrupt politicians in Nigeria. All his affiliated businesses in oil and gas, banking, real estate, hospitality and retail are doing extremely well and this is besides kickbacks from Chinese loans, NPA racket when he was minister and over bloated contracts awarded for rail projects. At the moment, his kastina to maradi rail project awarded at the tail end of his stint as minister for $1.3b is nearing completion, just imagine his kickback from that project alone.

Yes of course, but this is exactly the same mistake that Atiku made in 2023 by working with Okowa. The same 'I need funding' mentality. You would probably need tens of billions of dollars to buy the kind of votes Obi already has for free, and even that isn't guaranteed.

Funding does not always translate to votes in the main election. It can help you win primaries, but wouldn't help much in the presidential election.

An Atiku/Obi ticket wouldn't have needed to spend much to win.

CharlesCNG:
Atiku Is Not Buhari and can never be

One of the laziest assumptions in Nigerian politics, which Dele momodu is foolishly invested, is that Atiku Abubakar can simply inherit “the northern vote” in 2027.
That claim is weak for one basic reason: Atiku is not Buhari.

Buhari was not just another northern politician. He had a rare personal cult following, especially in parts of the North West, built over several election cycles. His appeal was deeper than party. His name itself carried emotional and political weight in ways very few northern politicians have ever matched.

Atiku does not command that kind of automatic loyalty. He may have influence, relevance, and recognition, but influence is not the same thing as mystique. Recognition is not the same thing as inherited mass followership.

That is the first weakness in the Dele Momodu-style theory that Atiku controls the North. It confuses Buhari’s personal political capital with Atiku’s ordinary northern relevance. Those are not the same thing.

The North did not become one man’s private estate under Buhari, and it certainly does not become Atiku’s inheritance now. Buhari built a following over years of repeated contests, strong emotional appeal, and a very particular northern image. Atiku has never commanded that same near-messianic standing.

So the first point is simple:

Atiku cannot be treated as Buhari’s automatic heir in the North.

That assumption is not strategy. It is lazy political storytelling.

I find it weird that Atiku thinks he can be Buhari. It's just like Orji Uzor Kalu thinking that he can be Peter Obi. The very underpinning of Buhari's cult-like, organic following - similar to Peter Obi - is the feeling of personal integrity, frugality, austere simplicity and incorruptibility. Of course whether Buhari eventually lived up to that false belief is another matter, and is a differentiating feature between him and Peter Obi.

That said, we must admit that the average core northern voter is almost a zombie that prioritizes ethnicity and religion over anything else, especially when the contest is between a Muslim northerner and anyone else. It doesn't matter whether the Northern Muslim on the ballot is a big thief, as long as he is their brother, he will get the vote over a southern 'saint'.

This is very similar to what we have learnt about the average South Western voter as well - who would definitely chose a South Western thief on the ballot even over and beyond a South Western non-thief, let alone a non South Westerner.

So Atiku will clear the core northern Muslim votes without a doubt, except for Kano State and segments of Jigawa. Unfortunately for him, these would not be enough because Peter Obi will likely clear the Northern Christian votes which are quote significant on their own (Kaduna South, segments of Adamawa, segments of Bauchi, Nasarawa, Taraba, Plateau, Benue - added to the commanding position in Abuja, the South East, South South, and Lagos.

AMINDA:
Tribal card? Obi got 95% of the votes from his region and that amounted to 6 million. Atiku got 50% of the votes from his region in 2023 and that amounted to 6.7m. Can Obi get more votes from his region? If yes, how? Atiku will definitely get more votes from his region this time. Politics is science, not emotions.

"Obi got 95% of the votes from his region and that amounted to 6 million". You can imagine this kind of barefaced lie, spewed with disgust and condescension.

Peter Obi scored over 2 million votes from the north, 1.9 million votes from the South East, 1.2 million votes from the South South, and over 800, 000 votes from the South West. And these are severely suppressed votes.

Peter Obi also brutalized both Atiku and Tinubu in Abuja to the extent that neither of them could get up to 25%, in the nation's capital and seat of government.

Yet you have the audacity to claim, like your master Atiku, that the bulk of Obi's votes are from the South East. Desperately trying to reduce him to a South East local champion even with clear empirical evidence to the contrary.

Cut the grass low and the snakes will show. Thank God that the so-called partnership with Atiku did not work. I can't imagine people like you and your kind in Atiku's circle having anything to do with reasonable Nigerians behind Obi who genuinely want the country to succeed.

LibertyRep:
...and you think Atiku didn't do all these.

You think he didn't make overtures to these people.

Nothing the man does will ever make sense to those who wouldn't vote him anyways.

Lol. You think it is "overtures" that would sway Obi and Obidients? Is it 'overtures' that Obi used to sway Kwakwanso and the Kwankwasiya? You don't know what strong, public commitments mean? Or you haven't seen or heard how Obi publicly committed to carrying Kwankwaso along, and effectively making him president in waiting after a Peter Obi 4 year term?

You Atiku people just like too much deluded arrogance, and that has always been his undoing.

AMINDA:
Nothing can pacify a man who kept saying "I must be on the ballot" from the get-go. In hindsight, for Atiku to stand a chance, Obi needs to be on the ballot. This is because Tinubu would have gotten sympathy votes from the South, if otherwise. With Obi on the ballot, he will as usual, mop Tinubu on the floor in the South. Meanwhile, the 5.6m Northern votes that came through for Tinubu in 2023 are all but gone. Once APC realises what they are up against, Obi might just get disqualified internally by the NDC. Dickson needs to be kept an eye on. The silence of the APC since Obi decamped to the NDC is very suspect.

It's people like you who mislead Atiku, likely because you have something pecuniary to gain from prodding him on. His contesting for elections is a big 'industry' for some people, so I understand.

Peter Obi's choice of language "I must be on the ballot" was quite nuanced, for those who know how to read between the lines. All Atiku needed to do was play the smart game, make strong commitments, and deploy very persuasive political communication with compromises, and that ticket would have been a reality. Kwankwaso is very much "on the ballot" in the same manner that Peter Obi is. That says everything that needs to be said, for those who are discerning.

Atiku blew his chances one too many times. He will live to regret it.

Atiku seems to be the most unintelligent senior politician we have in Nigeria. What he lacks in political intelligence, he overcompensates for with excessive ego and stubborn self-confidence (delusion).

Instead of playing smart politics by stooping to conquer as it were, doing everything necessary to win over Peter Obi and his supporters - even if it means making public and explicit power-sharing commitments (e.g. Obi will be in charge of the economy and so on, I will serve only one term, and I will ensure that his vice presidency becomes a clear stepping stone to the presidency after four years), he chose to carry on with very silly, dismissive arrogance.

Of course that arrogance and lack of strategic negotiation/communication alienated Obi and his supporters, and here we are again with a three horse race. Atiku/Obi would have been an iron clad, rigging-proof, unassailable fait accompli. The bottom line would be that Atiku would achieve his life long dream of becoming president. Is this not the ultimate goal? Or in which planet is arrogance a political strategy, for a non incumbent for that matter?

Now Atiku is running with the virtually useless Rotimi Amaechi. I don't understand the logic. How exactly does he plan to win the election?

He is not the incumbent, so he cannot plausibly rig the elections or have more resources to do vote buying. Neither does he have any governors to help him conjure some magic as was the case in 2023. And of course he has no organic supporters anywhere in Nigeria, not even in the so-called North (he is no Buhari), so what really is this man up to?

He cannot get 25% in ANY Southern state. He cannot get 25% in any middle belt state (e.g Plateau, Benue, Taraba and Nasarawa). He cannot get 25% in Abuja. So what is the election logic for him, other than just an ego driven exercise in futility?

The same Yari that is coordinating Tinubu's Renewed Hopelessness re-election campaign or another one?

CharlesCNG:
You are proving my point about defective reasoning.

Nobody said the South-East should have backed Buhari or Tinubu. The issue is not whether the region chose the morally superior candidate. The issue is whether it has exercised political judgment in a manner that translates into influence and power.

You cite Obasanjo, Yar'Adua and Jonathan as if they were "wrong horses", yet those administrations emerged through broad coalitions and actually produced presidents. That is how politics works.

You also claim Atiku/Obi won in 2019 but were rigged out. Fine. But what exactly is the lesson? That elections should henceforth be approached with greater coalition-building and strategic thinking, or that everyone else must simply acknowledge your superior judgment?

Politics is not an annual examination where marks are awarded for identifying the "best candidate." It is a contest for power. If your preferred candidates repeatedly lose, and your region's leverage continues to diminish, perhaps the time has come for introspection rather than self-congratulation.

The irony is that Peter Obi himself cannot become President solely with South-East votes. He requires alliances with the very political actors many of his supporters routinely insult and alienate.

That is the contradiction.

Being right is not enough. In politics, the ability to build and sustain coalitions is itself a form of judgment.

Otherwise, one may end up with the satisfaction of saying "I told you so" while others hold the offices.

Oga you don't have any point. Did the South West vote for Obasanjo in 1999? Their bloc votes were "wasted' on Olu Falae. Since 2003 to 2011, the North West votes were" wasted" on Buhari. So what exactly is your point? Why singling out the South East every time with this vexatious scapegoating?

Always saying shit and conjuring useless logic to make Igbos look bad. Just suck it up with this annoying reasoning.

AMINDA:
From a strategic point of view, there's nothing for ADC in the Southeast. Obi made sure of it. Historically, the Southeast is also the only region that doesn't split their votes, although they almost always end up backing the wrong horse. Every other region in the country put their eggs in multiple baskets as a form of insurance except for the Southeast. In 2023, Atiku made Okowa from the Southsouth V.P and even though he didn't win Delta, he won Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa. Politics is not an emotional sport.

Backing the wrong horse like Obasanjo, Yar'Adua and Goodluck Jonathan? Or you wanted Igbos to back disasters like Buhari and Tinubu?

Was it a 'wrong horse' when the South East backed Atiku/Obi in 2019, which they actually won, but we're rigged out?

This kind of defective and insincere reasoning casts you in very bad light.

Akpakomiza2:
Was obi not a contender on the ticket in 2019? Don't forget the Anglicans rival the Catholics and will vote against obi. Again, Ebonyi, Abia and Enugu are dominated by Pentecostal churches. Close is good enough, Tinubu doesn't need 25% in SE as long as he will get it in other states.

What kind of idiotic reasoning is this for goodness sake? So you honestly believe that an Igbo Anglican or Pentecostal would vote for a Muslim, severely incompetent criminal like Tinubu that has destroyed Nigeria.... just because they "rival Catholics"?

You Tinubu apologists have a serious problem, and it is a monumental waste of time engaging you in any intellectual discussion.

So if Peter Obi has no reputation, it is this ugly baboon and his even uglier, drug dealing criminal master called tinibu that has "reputation" abi?

The jokes write themselves in this miserable country.

Salsaa:
Kwankwaso is just a placeholder
The main VP is El-Rufai
He will take his place immediately he comes out from detention

I have been wondering where El Rufai would have stood if he wasn't detained... Would he be with Atiku in the ADC or would he be in the NDC?

But knowing how ambitious and scheming El Rufai is, it is very likely that he would position himself in the very spot that Kwankwaso occupies now, with the clear pathway to becoming president in 2031. Something that wouldn't be possible if he stayed with Atiku in the ADC

Peter Obi made a grave error by joining this useless man's party. There is no point continuing with this charade. I find this useless Dickson very offensive and the whole NDC setup leaves a bad taste in the mouth.

Jonjam269:
You are the one who failed to understand that your messiah, Peter Obi, is merely a pawn on the political chessboard. Unless you're deliberately deceiving yourself, there is no realistic pathway for an Obi/Kwankwaso victory in 2027. Kwankwaso, Dickson, and their allies understand the political game far better than the social media crowd.

I'm addressing politically astute individuals, not neophytes who have mistaken online hype, echo chambers, and wishful thinking for actual political strategy. Those consumed by social media propaganda and delusion may find this difficult to accept, but politics is won through structures, alliances, and calculations, not hashtags and keyboard activism.

You cannot mask your glaring lack of substance with empty verbosity. What exactly is your point? I asked you direct questions which you simply cannot answer, so just rest.

Jonjam269:
Whatever the NDC is doing appears to be laying the groundwork for a Kwankwaso–Dickson 2031 ticket, not an Obi–Kwankwaso presidential bid in 2027. Dickson and his allies likely understand that an Obi–Kwankwaso alliance stands little chance of winning, which is why they are focused on long-term political calculations rather than short-term excitement. Peter Obi, a serial party hopper, and many of his overly deluded supporters seem unable to recognize that they are merely pieces on a larger political chessboard.

Only political novices, social media warriors, and those blinded by partisan loyalty would fail to see the strategy unfolding before their eyes. While some are busy celebrating and creating online hype, seasoned politicians are quietly positioning themselves for the real contest ahead.

Mr Know it all, tell me how a Kwankwaso/Dickson Ticket would materialize in 2031, if Obi/Kwankwaso ticket does not win in 2027?

And if the Obi/Kwankwaso ticket succeeds and gets sworn in, you think all this rubbish braggadocio Dickson is currently doing will be entertained? And you think Kwankwaso will entertain his ass in 2031?

Stop making ridiculous projections and painting fantastical scenarios.

I said it many months ago. I said it that these despicable 'Lagos boys' have been bragging that they will be in power for 10 years.

Now they have set the machinery in motion.

Their downfall will be loud.

Which military will back him? For a president that is this useless and unpopular, supported only by his tribalistic South West enclave, he will receive a very shameful humiliation if he tries to do anything other than to hand over power on May 29, 2007.

It is a promise written in blood. Bookmark it.

Nigeria would have to disintegrate rather than let tinibu have a second term. Very greedy bastatd. Knowing who he is, I am certain that virtually all the so-called local players take would take over this niche sector will be companies linked to a shell front company or entity owned by him and his inner circle.

I prefer South Africans or even aliens to control that sector or any sector for that matter than for his idiot they call tinibu to lay his greedy hands on it.

I saw all of this coming that's why the prospect of his presidency was so disgusting and unthinkable that I declared that it would even be better to have sheekau as president than this rotten monster.

Only the gullible masses can be deceived by these so-called 'reforms'. There is nothing this tinibu does for national interest. Absolutely nothing. Everything must have an angle to enrich or benefit him and his cronies, otherwise it will not be worth doing. This includes the subsidy removal, nonsense tax law, electoral law amendment, rubbish coastal road, and everything else the idiot has done since he came to power.

I find that experienced pharmacists are more important than a lot of doctors, especially in non-surgical cases.

Many doctors in this country have caused an awful lot of unnecessary deaths.

The ejection of this useless and evil woman and her equally evil husband from Abuja must be very very loud to leave an everlasting lesson. It is not enough to merely eject them. It must be done in grand style.

Atlantis585:
I thought the whole South, NC, NE and NW is in the bag for Emilokan.

Don't mind that irritant. When it's time for election, he will remember Southern unity. But when it is time for appointments, he will remember that yoruba lokan.

He should make do with only Yoruba votes.

I don't understand this kind of wishy washy case.

What exactly is the crime here?

Yeah, but it cannot be Tinubu. So just respect yourself.

chatinent:
Was OBJ any better?

This is a very stupid and vexatious question.

Christistruth03:
Christians supported Peter Obi with Christian mind

But afterwards Obi sowed Ethnic division

Just as he had sowed division between the Anambra Catholics,Anglicans and Pentecostal Christians when he was Anambra Gov

He cannot unite even a New born Calf with its Mothers Breast Milk

So therefore, Christians will support Tinubu? Or what exactly are you saying?

God will punish you and your useless husband and I hope he doesn't wake up the next time he sleeps.

If you allow these animals, they will replicate their nonsense Lagos "GAC" rubbish at the Federal level.

God forbid. It will not happen.

Very very useless woman. Like husband like wife. God forbid.