₦airaland Forum

mozel247:
There will never b any third force victory or near victory. This is pure hallucination. Inconclusive...? Won't be surprised as this inec chairman is Mr inconclusive

Where is your analysis? Or have you just concluded that in your bedroom?

We shall see!

Here is my analysis of what will happen in 2019.

It is a Predictive analysis, whose outcome will be 90 percent accurate.

I leave 10 percent as margin of error. If you belong to any of the political parties that my analysis does not favour, you don't have to resort to abuse but I am happy for critical engagement and discussion.

I have not pulled my data for this analysis from INEC voters list as most analysts have done. I've rather taken a more holistic approach by looking at all the silent, yet salient factors such as demographics, voter's sentiments, social media noise, global changes, political shifts in Africa, Nigeria's political history and street gists. This is not a quantitative analysis of numbers, it is a qualitative analysis of insights, perceptions and historical dynamics. The results of my analysis will be unbelievable to many, but come June 12, 2019. I want you to come back here and see for yourself.

1. Voter's turn out will be high, due to increasing population, large youth population and citizen's education. There's been a lot of voters education and kudos to both technology and the government for increasing action on that. This will change the election dynamics in 2019 as voters participation will be high.
2. Election results between the two main parties will be very close than ever.
3. APC will rig, PDP will rig. PDP will win, elections will be declared inconclusive.
4. Results of some states will be rigged big time, some will not be released and presidential election winner will not be declared on time, if declared at all.
5. 2019 elections will not be determined by Market women and area boys as before, the deciding factors would be the young, middle aged and educated voters.
6.Nigeria will be thrown into chaos and the army will be on the streets from April, 2019 or before
7. Third force candidate will be eventually declared winner of 2019 elections.
8. Nigeria has never had this type of elections before. There will be many factors at play. Social media and demographic shift are some of them. High voter's apathy among the old age population to occur. A lot of people believe that the present government has failed. A lot believe that the main opposition is corrupt and cannot win. A lot believe that the answer is among the third force but many believe that thy cannot win because they are unpopular.
9. The third force will contribute to Buhari's loss and the Buhari's government should have formed a kind of coalition, like the CUPP to avoid the loss.

Here are some important issues to take note of.

1. PDP will win, APC will disagree:[/i] - there's already a lot of data on how Atiku will win, and I don't have to reproduce those again. Many in the Buhari camp will not agree and the election results will be faulted as a result. But PDP's win will not only be a result of Atiku's popularity, it will be a result of massive election rigging and vote buying by the PDP, including the third force eating into Buhari's chances. We saw from Ekiti and Osun that not only APC can bribe or rig, the PDP rigging machine also did same. PDP only lost out because APC is the incumbent who used state apparatus to ride the PDP. Exactly, the same is expected in this election, the precedent has been set.

While I am not claiming that PDP won the Osun & Ekiti elections, no one can argue that it was not a tough fight between both parties.

In the Presidential elections, Atiku will prove more popular than Buhari due to a Buhari fatigue by a large percentage of the population.
While Buhari's voter's reserve may not not dwindled much in the last four years, it has not grown exponentially. If Buhari has to win in 2019, he voter's reserve ought to have grown exponentially. In the South West, South South, South East and North East particularly, Buhari will fail, because his economic policies over the last four years yielded little results for citizens in those regions. I have seen numerous street sentiments confirming same and voting pattern will follow same. On account of all the sentiments, Atiku will have a marginal win over Buhari in the coming elections. But will only lead with around 700,000 - 800, 000 votes, but the Atiku camp will also engage in a lot of election fraud and malpractice. At the end of the day, Atiku will end up with around 1.3 million - 1. 5 million votes ahead of Buhari.
Evidence of this will make Buhari refuse to accept Atiku as winner.

2. Buhari will win the big states: [i]- Despite Atiku's win in many states of the above named region. Buhari will win the bigger states with very small margin but will not win big. Buhari will not win big in states like Lagos not because of Atiku's weight, it will be because of the strength of the third force candidates, a la, (small parties like ANN, AAC, YPP, PT and a host of them). All the small parties cumulatively will pull a strong weight in Lagos and many states in the South south and South West. The results would be unbelievable and it would be to Buhari's detriment.

In Kaduna, APC will still win but Atiku will be very close, APC will win Kano but PDP will be close.

3. The Third Force: [/i]The third force candidates will eat into Buhari's votes and add to his eventual demise. I think that the third force candidates are hugely underestimated in this election. They will play a pivotal role in determining the winner. The the third force, likely AAC, whose candidate is Omoyele Sowore will be a close third. The young activist will win surprisingly around 6-7 million votes (Bookmark this page). Him and other third force candidate's position will be boosted by voters who will neither vote PDP nor APC.

The Generation Z's, citizen's between 18 and 25 years of age will swing votes based on the sentiment and appeal of youth that third force candidates provide. Many of them were not around in the previous elections and are not happy with the current situation. Third force candidates will get up to 10 million votes from this population with the help of this population. If not for the third force, Atiku cannot win.

4. Inconclusive Election:[i] As the election results will be too close in many states, results would be declared inconclusive and there would be calls for second round of votes in some states. The APC here will use state apparatus of power to push their will against the process, and PDP will not allow that to happen. From Intelligence insights, dozens of containers filled with ammunition are in distribution. And this can only mean the state versus PDP forces. This will lead to fight for fight, eye for eye in some states. Knowing that APC will not contest governorship elections in Rivers, the APC will unleash terror to win with force. PDP will push bask. Rivers state will be bloody. While APC and PDP are fighting it out in the months of April and May, some real terror groups (Maybe Boko Haram) will likely to take advantage. This will exacerbate an already tense situation, they will maim and kill and the public will think it is APC and PDP killing people. Both parties will be held responsible.

5. Third force candidate declared winner:[b][/b] As a result of the chaos which Nigeria will be thrown into, full election results may be reviewed in a more transparent manner under the supervision of international observers or an interim government. An interim government will likely be brokered by peace committee's from the globe if the situation continues until June 12, election declarations date. But tons of rigging by both APC and PDP will be discovered and both parties will be disqualified. Alas, the third force candidate will be declared winner.

One of the third force candidates, Omoyele Sowore, is the dark horse in this election.
A similar event happened in France during the Presidential contest of Emmanuel Macron, Francoise Hollande and Marine Le Pen. The election was initially between the far right, Le Pen and the establishment, Hollande. If not for Emmanuel Macron, the third force candidate, Hollande would have won the election. But Macron ate into Hollande's votes and most people who hated the far right voted Macron instead. This trend will likely repeat itself in Nigeria.

Conclusion[i][/i]

I know that this analysis will sound unacceptable to some people, but it is not about anyone's acceptability. It is what the data says, it is what the sentiments out there says, and it is what will likely happen.

We have a mobile app that is 70% complete... but want to accelerate completion in the next 6-8 weeks, fix bugs and test, so I am looking to work with **senior developers** or a development agency with senior programmers based anywhere in Nigeria or Africa. Web services have been done in code-igniter and the mobile apps are in Android and iOS. Project is Europe based and we are looking for folks that can take on the project from where it is right now and finish it off. When app is launched, we will work with whichever agency or developer in the long term.

You will show evidence of previous projects and must be a great communicator and team worker.

Please contact me folks if you can help.

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I read your email and your NL comments and think it would be right to wish you well and see how it goes.

So I will keep an eye on Naijfund and see where you can push it in few months.

All the best.

I have sent you an email but I don't believe what you're saying.

There is something they call model replication in business and that means that if a concept is good, you copy it and tweak it to your own situation and that is all I am saying.

If you're going to do it your way, I am sure you will get to some point and find that it yields no result because that is not how it works.

To fly, get things right, do your homework properly and if you're a business person, you will know that all you need is a good marketing effort once you launch - not a public sensitization program. You are not the ministry of information or investment.

I have sent you an email, if you follow it up I will provide any support I can.

You are an entrepreneur, your job is to offer entrepreneurs and investors a veritable platform to meet. Forget about sensitization, that belongs to the ministry of propaganda.

Go to crownfunder
Kickstarter
Crowncube
Indigogo

And so many of them out there. You can improve on what they have done, but there is a lot of homework to do. It's not simply an online business. There is a lot of resources that must go into it as well.

Naijfund as it is cannot fly and can never fly. You need to do your homework. See all those sites up there and see how it is done.

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I am not going to pat you on the back - this is a very rubbish implementation... take the site offline and start all over.

You have many successful examples, so there is no excuse to implement this trash.

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