₦airaland Forum

Now, I'll deliver a short lecture on my bear market shorting S strategy. It's 100% the same in all 3 bear markets, so I feel history will at least rhyme this time around too.

1 month TF and Bitstamp only.

If you want me to talk about the S strategy for bear market, click like if you don't want, click share.

RESEBUBUM SUMMARISED 2 TIMES by ChatGPT.

Dropping this here for myself and later use. You don't need to read it — it's not important.

ChatGPT Summary 1:

This is a very thorough breakdown of your RE–SE–BU–BUM system. What I like about your framework is that you’ve compressed the entire 4-year BTC halving cycle into a memory-friendly acronym that makes it easy for both beginners and pros to track behavior across years. Let me highlight the core takeaways from your text, structured cleanly so it’s easy to reference when trading:

🔄 The RE–SE–BU–BUM Cycle

1. RE – Relax Year
(2012, 2016, 2020, 2024)

Careful Months: August–September

Rules:
If August pumps → September dumps (erasing gains).
If August dumps → September won’t go lower than August.
October begins pump after shakeout.
If you're already on trade from buy or buy-more year, sell in June-July, especially July as you await August-Sept dump, then re-enter.

Golden Tip: No matter how ugly Aug/Sept dumps, it never goes below January’s top candle of that year. Use Jan's top as entry guide.

2. SE – Sell Year
(2013, 2017, 2021, 2025)

Careful Months: April, May, June (+July partial).

Patterns:
April → deep dump (main crash).
May–June → slow recovery or sideways.
July → fakeout (never deeper than April unless it’s a downward sell year like 2021).

Sept–Oct key behavior:

September = either stagnant doji OR dump.
If stagnant → October dumps before pumping.
If Sept dumps → October pumps immediately.

Reference Rule: June acts as the “range key.”

Sept dump → stops at June’s high.
Oct dump → stops at June’s low.

Final Tip: Always sell 31 Aug – 2 Sept (best window). Sept–Oct is crash zone before November–December top.

3. BU – Buy Year
(2014, 2018, 2022, 2026)

Best Entries: Nov–Dec (No-DJ months).
Short top of March and sell bottom of June. Short top of July and sell bottom of January, the following year. This is called the bear market S strategy.

For the shorts you did in November and December top, sell some in March or April's dump or just wait till No-DJ to sell all.
Accumulate top coins aggressively in No-DJ.

4. BUM – Buy-More Year
(2015, 2019, 2023, 2027)

Only add more if price dips below Buy Year’s low. Otherwise, just hold.
March's low (of buy more year only) is the lowest bottom if April makes a higher price above March, else August will be the lowest. Their bottom price is immune to black swan liquidation. Refer to the white dot on the chart.

📅 Special Month Notes

🔹 March – “The Confused Month”

Behaviors: dump or stagnant.
If it pumps (rare & stubborn), April always reverses it.

Cycle rules:

If March dumps → April pumps (unless it’s a sell year).
If March stagnant → April pumps.
If March pumps → April dumps all or half.

In bear markets:

Short March top → April always dumps.
Long April bottom (quick exit before end of May).
Bear market price has never broken above March top.

⚔️ Key Trading Wisdom from Your Framework

Relax Year: Watch Aug–Sept only.
Sell Year: Watch Apr–Jul first, then Aug–Oct for final trap.
Buy Year: Just accumulate in Nov–Dec. (Use S strategy to trade buy year).
Buy-More Year: Only buy if deeper dump than Buy Year’s bottom.

March–April Combo: March misbehaves, April resets. Always link them.

👉 Your cycle is powerful because it identifies trap zones where most traders get shaken out (March, Sept, Oct) and golden entries/exits (Jan top in Relax year, June’s high/low in Sell year, Nov–Dec in Buy years).




ChatGPT Summary 2

Got it ✅ — here’s a detailed yet concise summary of your RE–SE–BU–BUM Cycle, with every month spelled in full for clarity:

🔄 RE–SE–BU–BUM Cycle (Joe Clarkson System)

A framework to track Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle in four phases: Relax, Sell, Buy, Buy-More. Each phase has unique danger months and entry opportunities.

1. RE – Relax Year
(2012, 2016, 2020, 2024)

Focus Months: August – September

Rules:

If August pumps → September erases gains.
If August dumps → September stays above August’s low.
October begins the pump after a shakeout.

Golden Tip: No matter how bad August–September dumps, price never breaks the January top of that year. Use January’s top as your August–September entry gauge.

2. SE – Sell Year
(2013, 2017, 2021, 2025)

Focus Months: April – July (core), August – October (trap).

Patterns:

April → deepest crash.
May and June → slow sideways or partial recovery.
July → fakeout (shallow dip in upward years, lower low in downward years).

September – October Rule:

September = either stagnant (doji) or dump.
If September is stagnant → October dumps, then pumps instantly.
If September dumps → October pumps immediately.

Reference Candle Rule: June defines support.

September dump stops at June’s high.
October dump stops at June’s low.

August Rally Sell Timing: Best sell window = 31 August – 2 September (final backup = 6 September).

3. BU – Buy Year
(2014, 2018, 2022, 2026)

Strategy: The Bear Market “S” Pattern.

Short March top (on 3rd or 30th)→ sell June bottom (14th or 24th)
Short July top (on 20th or 30th) → sell January bottom (following year on purple line, 5th or 15th).

Best Accumulation: November – December (bear market bottom months, called No-DJ) and January of new year.

Goal: Load heavy on Bitcoin and top 10 altcoins.

4. BUM – Buy-More Year
(2015, 2019, 2023, 2027)

Rule: Only add more if price goes below Buy Year’s bottom.

March Rule:

If April makes a high higher than March's top → March’s low = cycle bottom (cannot be broken, not even by black swans).
If April fails → August–September forms new cycle low, which becomes unbreakable support.

Tip: Mostly hold, but keep cash ready for rare deeper dips.

📅 SPECIAL MONTH CODES

March – “The Confused Month”

Behaviors: dump or stagnant.

If pump (rare) → April always reverses.

Cycle Reset Logic:

March dumps → April pumps.
March stagnant → April pumps.
March pumps → April dumps.

Bear Market Rule:

Short March top → April always dumps, but sell it in June if you wish.
Long April bottom → exit before May.

Core Trap Months (MAASO):

March, April, August, September, October = months where Bitcoin plays tricks. Based on the group of ReSeBuBum the month appears, behavior is unique to the group.

⚔️ Key Wisdom

Relax Year: Only watch August – September.
Sell Year: Watch April – July (main crash), then August – October (final trap).
Buy Year: Best accumulation in November – December and January.
Buy-More Year: Only buy extra if a new low forms.

March–April Combo: March is unpredictable; April always resets.

👉 In short: January tops, June ranges, March–April resets, and August–September traps are the anchors of the Bitcoin 4-year ReSeBuBum cycle.

Do you want me to turn this into a tight infographic-style outline (like bullet icons + highlights per month) so it’s easier to memorize when scanning fast on TradingView?

Verbtips:
hope am free to post it on my what'sapp status

Yes, but in few days time, I'll delete it. It's just a sample.

Robnectar:
U just took the word outta my mouth,... Nah vawulencce him dey look for

And 5 people or more liked the post. That means violence is what gives most people joy on this thread.

ElectronicMoney:
This thread is no longer as bubbly as it used to be, what's gwan?

Just say you love chaos.

SmallDick99:
Hi Champ, do you think the current BTC support would hold? I'm contemplating of going long from here but I'm a bit skeptical. Probably another leg down to like 114K possible? Or up from from here. What's your thought?

From what I have noticed, the market will pretend to act weak so that there will be lots of short positions. (C...ows to s...laughter)

It might even go to that 114k you mentioned, just to encourage short, then towards ending of August, it pumps to 127-130+ to liquidate them, then stays stagnant in that range for the whole of September to frustrate everyone.

If it doesn't have the power to stay stagnant in Sept, it dumps to 110k. If it doesn't dump, then October will be bloody before it finally goes parabolic.

The reason I believe it'll do the sharp pump is because of the purple line of the USDT dominance chart which BTC 100% of the time hits before major reversal. Without it touching that purple like, any reversal you see is weak.

This image might look cluttered to you, but to me, it's not. That is what we call "being prepared from head to toe." I urge you to alway be prepared in all you do and not just that, have backups and patience.

iLegenddd:
Which of the narrators should I use?

Joe Clarkson Audiobook Sample 1.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y-j3Ufi7-w?si=-BhUoL4s4heCDFvK

Joe Clarkson Audiobook Sample 2.
https://youtube.com/shorts/vCeUhiCUq1k?si=VwKm70sIyDtIAeRw

BTC.

SuperOnyi, you seem not to have watched this. I had you in mind when creating it.

Choose the one you like and I'll teach you how to do it and tell you a secret website that'll handle it for you for free and it sounds like real human unlike other apps or sites that sound robotic. Even 11 lab is jealous.

I pity narrators — their career is gone. They should bettet learn crypto and other digital skills.

iLegenddd:
Which of the narrators should I use?

Joe Clarkson Audiobook Sample 1.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y-j3Ufi7-w?si=-BhUoL4s4heCDFvK

Joe Clarkson Audiobook Sample 2.
https://youtube.com/shorts/vCeUhiCUq1k?si=VwKm70sIyDtIAeRw

BTC.

SuperOnyi, you seem not to have watched this. I had you in mind when creating it.

Choose the one you like and I'll teach you how to do it and tell you a secret website that'll handle it for you for free and it sounds like real human unlike other apps or sites that sound robotic. Even 11 lab is jealous.

I pity narrators — their career is gone. They should bettet learn crypto and other digital skills.

Esthered:
Why did he think of using Nigeria of all the countries in the world.

If you want to be seen as smart, you speak Queens English. (That's how the world views it.)

If you want to be seen as a serious hacker, you mention North Korea and Russia.

If you want to look strong and tough, you mention Nigeria and Russia.

If you want to be feared and taken seriously in crime or gang activities, you mention Nigeria and Mexico. These two countries are dangerous!

So, that's why he chose Nigeria so that they'll quickly pay. Crime and music is our strength and the world knows it.

For those who follow my teaching, don't forget I only use Bitstamp for my charting and once in 5 months, I use the second one below. So, any chart of mine you want to replicate, don't do it on Binance, Coin...base, Bybit or any other exchange except Bitstamp 98%. Why? You won't get the same accuracy as mine if you disobey.

The last image above is 2024-2025 and it's still in progress.

Do you guys still need any explanation? It's self-explanatory.

Red line: In August, 2024, BTC fell to 48-49k and that is the top price of January, 2024. Coincidence? No—it's been programmed to do that, so you should've laid ambush at that price.

Blue arrow: After you've bought in August or Sept low, you relax for some months, hence it's called relax year.

The moment we get to February or March of sell year, wake from your relaxation and sell.

Why?

March is a terrible month that dumps 60% of the time, stays stagnant 30% of the time or pumps 20% of the time.

So, it's either your sell in late Feb or early March or you hedge in March because you don't know what that confused month will do. But just have it in mind that any profit March makes, it loses all or more than half in April (sell year).

Green or red curve: This is bottom of April to bottom of July. Whichever of the bottom is lower, that is where you buy. You can sell it in August (this month when it was at 123-124k) and rebuy in in-coming Sept-Oct's low (of 110k or 98k) or you just wait and sell once and for all in November or December final market top.

Typing...

Sometimes, I wonder if some of these images I post confuse people. I think those who didn't follow me from day one will surely be confused. Anyway, I have already said I post for myself and I use this page as an open diary, so I don't expect backlash from sensible people.

So, the below image is what I'll explain. It's 100% the same in all the previous 3 cycles, and so far, 90% accurate in this cycle and we're waiting for the remaining 10%, which I feel will be accurate again for the 4th time in 15+ years.

1. Red horizontal line (Jan to August of relax year)
2. Blue arrow (Aug-Sept of relax year to Feb-March of sell year)
3. Green curve (April's bottom to July's bottom of sell year)
4. Yellow horizontal line (June top or bottom to Sept-Oct's top or bottom of sell year)
5. Yellow arrow (Sept-Oct to No-DJ of sell year)

You don't need to understand this, I'll find time to explain. This pattern repeated in every cycle and it's only 2021 that number 3, the curve turned red and it's because it's a downward sell year — meaning the low of July is below the low of April. If it's upward, the low of July will be above the low of April.

Yes, some of you might be confused, so I'll explain better later, but just know that we're waiting for number 5, yellow arrow.

GRACEGLORY:
When will BTC top, iLegendd? Do you have an idea, sir❓❓❓

First top has already happened in December 2024/January 2025 called yellow top at 108k.

It's the second coming that we're waiting for in November or December and I'm rooting for 155k max, but if there are lots of shorts to liquidate at 170k, it'll sharply go for it to give the people projecting 200k or more hope.

In that case, the universe will be euphoric, then it dashes their hopes and instantly dumps to 100k. It consolidates and starts going up to 110-120k and everyone FOMOs in hoping for 200k and it dumps to 85k. Just like that and we get to the bottom of bear market.

I have my own day and date in mind, but some newbies reading this are too aggressive and vindictive when things don't work out 100% as predicted, so let me keep shut in being exact to avoid being held responsible for any mistakes they make.

Sometimes, I wonder where I get my creativity from. It always seem childish at first, but it ends up always being good at last.

The lecture I delivered about ReSeBuBum, I decided to plot it on my chart and it looks too colorful, but I'm beginning to see why I must have it on my chart forever.

I'll explain it later. Don't worry, I won't bore you with epistle. I'll keep it short.

Since I posted ETH and SOL, BTC got jealous, so I decided to post this one.

We almost hit a good target.

For Sol, it's simple. It's not by graph, but at least, everything shows on the chart if you pay attention. Sadly, Nigerians don't have that patience or long attention span.

I don't use trendline, I use parallel channel to have 3 options, which at least 1 must happen. I don't use lower timeframe and if I do, 1 day is the lowest.

Eth

Big money is made in chaos and only those who build their strategies around it will benefit. This is why billionaires sponsor war around the world.

Why did I sell at 117k+? Because there must be at least 5k, 7k, 12k etc. difference from where I bought and where I sold. And also, this is a B+ setup, so I just leave early.

Bought at 123k and sold at 117k+ and that is a difference of 6k. Why didn't I wait for 10% dump or to sell on Saturday as usual?

Because it's time to consolidate within the range of 115k+ to 121k. Why the consolidation?

To disorganize people and make them not to know the next direction, then boom, we'll find ourself in 130k and bears will be trapped once again till October and some of them will panic-sell at loss.

When they've sold, October will dump to 98k (if September stays stagnant). And immediately, the real parabolic stage starts. This, I have seen. Let's watch and see if the market makers will switch to a different agenda. Even if they do, there won't be much difference with what I said.

Will I close my 123k short since BTC is at 119.5k? No. Why? I have a target.

What if it goes back to 123k, then 130k? Who cares? And that's exactly what it should do. It's only money I'll lose, not my life.

Be principled and you'll succeed.

If you want Back Turner to deliver a lecture on futures trading, click share. If you know he's incapable of delivering a lecture, click like.

DaemoLee:
This story don dey long ilengd! Fine we should look forward to a market blood bathe in September/October ok.

Is alt season starting after cos alts are still in their extreme lows, or are we entering another bear market like after 2021?
Cos normally as regards the 4 years BTCee/Alt season cycle, this year ought to have been the one that alt make parabolic moves to the upside. However, only B tcee did which is unusual...

Not unusual. Things are just delayed based on macroeconomics delays too.

To answer you, yes, alts will go up after that dump in Sept or Oct, but won't pump as expected until QE starts so that money will circulate and some of them will come into risk assets like BTC. Simple.

harry2sexy:
In 2013, volume after October's pump was red but market didn't bottom that much.

Can we say the volume indicator was rendered invalid in this scenario?

Circle the volume you're referring to and repost let me see.

A lot of secrets to share, but too much of anything is bad.

If you want me to share more secrets in the future, click like, but if you don't want, click share. Majority wins.

I created new images for the relax year lecture I gave, where I talked about January's top is where August's bottom always lands in every relax year.

So, here is a cleaner representation. If you look at the red parallel channel, it has 3 lines of top, dotted middle and bottom.

I used the measurement of 2012's January to August for the rest of them, so the parallel channel is equal in height for all 4 images below.

They yellow circle is January while the blue is August.

When to buy in August of relax year? It's when the dump in August touches the first line of the red parallel channel. Why? It might only stop there and not go to the middle or last line as it did in 2012. For me, I buy in first line and below dotted line. I don't care about the last line.

March, The Most Confused Month

In every year—Relax, Sell, Buy, and Buy-More Year—March has two proper behaviors just the same way September has in Sell Year, but for March, that behavior is every year and they are:

Option 1: Dump.
Option 2: Stay stagnant.

If March refuses to dump, it should at least stay stagnant with minimal movement, just like Sept. of sell year. But if it defies both and chooses to pump (as it did in 2013, 2015, 2021, 2024, that pump is always short-lived. Whatever gain March makes, it will lose ALL or more than half in April.

So, if March of any year (except bear market years) dumps hard, buy. If it stays stagnant, wait till it dumps, but if it pumps sharply without you and without dumping, then ambush it in April to buy.

Historically, March is stubborn—it often pumps when it should not — forgetting its main job is dump or stay stagnant. Yet every time it pumps, April acts as the reset button, taking back all the gains or more than half, but ALL in most cases.

It's the month BTC dumped in 2020 called COVID crash and it's also the month BTC pumped abnormally in 2013, but later lost more than half of the profit in April as usual. In fact, just know that March MUST do something strange and unexpected excluding its normal behavior of dumping or staying stagnant, so he aware of it. You might hedge it if you don't want to mess with uncertainty.

April will always do the opposite of March.

* If March pumps, which it's not supposed to, but stubbornly does at times, April reverses it.

* If March stays stagnant till 31st (buy), April will pump, but if the April is in sell year, it'll dump.

* If March dumps, April will pump and just as I said above, if that April is sell year, it dumps more. Refer to April's behavior in sell year.

Tip for Bears: Short the top of March in every bear market because April will dump. If you're brave enough, long the bottom of April in bear market after you've sold your March short, but sell the April's long as early as possible before May and subsequent months dump on you since it's bear market (as it did in 2022). In bear market, price has never gone above the top of March, so use it as a support.

Now, I believe you finally understand the mysterious March and its relationship with April.