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 Politics › Economic Dangers Of Selling The Nnpc As Proposed By Atiku Abubakar by jpphilips(op): 6:04pm On Feb 18, 2019*. Modified: 7:17pm On Feb 18, 2019 |
THE ECONOMIC DANGERS OF SELLING THE NNPC AS PROPOSED BY ALHAJI ATIKU ABUBAKAR Nigerians in November of 2018 were greeted with an economic proposal perceived to be innocuous by most quarters of the country, by the former Vice president Atiku Abubakar aka Waziri of Privatization scams. I did a research on the direction of that economic policy what turned out was a disaster, recall this publication I’ll sell 90% of NNPC if elected, Atiku vows, https://punchng.com/ill-sell-90-of-nnpc-if-elected-atiku-vows/ In the publication above, Atiku proposed to sell 90% of all the NNPC holdings in his future privatization moves, never mind that 56 government establishments collapsed under his privatization scams of the past. Buhari in his mercy has taken up the responsibility of paying the pensions of Atiku's privatization victims read here; https://www.proshareng.com/news/Pensions/Pension:-FG-begins-payment-of-N17bn-to-NITEL-workers/6735 Can Nigeria survive under a sold NNPC regimen? tough question!! why does other oil dependent economies maintain a national oil company? in Africa; Nigeria has NNPC, Angola has Sanagol, Algeria has Sonatrach, Egypt has EGPC, Libya has NOC etc. In the Middle east; Saudi Arabia owns Saudi Aramco, Qatar owns QP, Bahrain owns BAPCO, iraq owns INOC, Syria owns the Al furat, Iran owns NIOC and so on. In Europe: Russia has Rosneft, Norway has Satoil etc, you can see clearly that every oil dependent economy in Africa, Asia, Europe, middle east maintain an oil company. Why is it so? A national oil company is the country's stake in its oil riches which translates to the oil wealth of the people. What does the NNPC do for the Nigerian economy? In a layman's term, NNPC pays for anything you use that is not produced in Nigeria, in other words, NNPC is your window to the global market. Let us use your American imported car for example. You wish to buy a car from the United States, the Japanese manufacturer in the US insisted you must pay in usd for the transaction, unfortunately your local bank account holds the Naira so how did you get the car eventually? Your bank debits your naira, then pays the dollar equivalent to the US company. smart huh!! Have you wondered where your bank or your Aboki got the USD to facilitate that transaction? my research took me to a CBN activity called Retail Dutch Auction System (RDAS) and Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS), these are avenues your bank, BDC (Aboki) and every other licensed forex trader gets his supply from. Out of curiosity, I decided to dig further where the CBN gets her forex from, the answer wasn't surprising, the NNPC!! through the following common sense processes. Direct oil Sales (NNPC) (70%) Petroleum Profit Tax (Oil Companies) (20%) Royalties (5%) Penalty for Gas Flaring (5%) could this be the reason why every oil dependent economy has a national oil company? Is Atiku planning to steal 70% of Nigeria's oil wealth like he stole all the Niger delta sea ports for 25yrs? We most times follow these politicians around without paying attention to the underlying message of doom they are coming with, Atiku and OBJ orchestrated the most fraudulent privatization heist in the history of this country, read here https://www.nairaland.com/4839445/atikus-source-wealth-revealed-mohammed/1 Unfortunately, most young people that form today's voting block do not know what OBJ & Atiku represent in Nigeria's politics. some people ignorantly argue that since NNPC is a cesspit of corruption therefore it has to be sold, my only response is, even as the cesspit of corruption, it still provides 70% of CBN's forex, if sold, where do we get those forex from? What Business is Nigeria doing today that will provide that insane amount of forex for the utilization of over 180m Nigerians? Am i supposed to borrow cars and shoes from Atiku and his friends? In case you have forgotten so soon how Nigerians landed in poverty due to forex shortages, high cost of living, that was just a tip of what could happen when NNPC sold oil at a lower price, imagine what will happen when NNPC seize to exist. Like everything Atiku privatized, either ended up in his pocket (Niger delta oil and gas free zones) or died out rightly (Nitel, Alscon, Delta steel, News week etc). For Nigerians in the mid stream sector of the oil and gas industry (oil servicing companies) warming up to vote Atiku, your case is worse, 60% of your contracts are paid for by the NNPC through a process called cash calls, if NNPC is sold, has Atiku told you who will pay the cash calls? this segment of Nigerians will be the first victim of that demonic proposal, we will be watching their protest at the NNPC headquarters like we watched ex Nitel staffs in protest back in the days. sound familiar right? https://www.uniglobalunion.org/news/nigeria-nitel-dismissed-78-workers-unions-protest-sack-order what about the ALSCON workers huh!! sounds familiar? https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/128089-alscon-workers-host-communities-protest-rusals-sack-of-475-nigerians.html God will be fair to Atiku because this time he sounded the doom Trumpet of his dejavu if Nigerians ignorantly gives him the mandate to forge ahead. With this plan, the next round of hunger will not be friendly, after voting Atiku, do not complain he promised change but brought chains, already, I can see your chain under an Atiku leadership, good luck as you do your future proud by resisting this scam in the waiting!! We need a reformed NNPC as proposed by Ibe Kachikwu already endorsed by the US http://nnpcgroup.com/PublicRelations/NNPCinthenews/tabid/92/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/576/US-Endorses-Ongoing-NNPC-Reforms.aspx We need to sustain this NNPC reform that ended the perennial yuletide petrol scarcity in Nigeria, we need to sustain the policy that ended hoarding of petroleum products in Nigeria, we need to sustain this reform that ended the theft of over 400,000bbls of crude oil daily, that's what we need, selling NNPC is evil to say the least. The only beneficiaries of this proposal are Atiku and his friends like peter obi that has the financial war-chest to buy NNPC's assets in bits and pieces, strip the assets, sell them off, become billionaire & walk away. The big question every Nigerian going to the polls on Saturday must ask himself is; Can you live without the NNPC? by extension, can you live without your cars, smart phones, computers, foreign clothes, deodorant, building materials, books, drugs, cosmetics anything in this country that is not made in Nigeria? if your answer is NO, vote any other candidate that is not Atiku. 7 Likes 6 Shares |
| Politics › Re: Buhari Social Investments Vs American Model by jpphilips(m): 11:50am On Feb 18, 2019 |
IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES? A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance? Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered. Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth. What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies? Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession. Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession. Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford. In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation. Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency. Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate. The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy. Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages. Okonjo iweala then finance minister and coordinator of the economy actually warned Nigerians in 2014 long before buhari came that the level of mismanagement will bring hunger to us, read here: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html If okonjo iweala saw this hunger in 2014, warned us about it, how can a sane person accuse buhari of bringing hardship? Between 2015-2017, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone? The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves, It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings). Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS. This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings. Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team. Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $194b in a $156.1b economy (122% of GDP in savings).You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time (3.8% of GDP), that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings? Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago. The kwanza fell 11 percent to 187.95 per dollar by 3:35 p.m. in Luanda and depreciated 10 percent to 221.75 against the euro. The move came a day after the central bank allowed the currency to weaken in its first auction of foreign exchange since announcing it would end a dollar peg that’s been in place since April 2016.....BloombergBorrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/ Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016. https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday. Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously. Poverty in Angola According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million. I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $194b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock. Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014. Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014. My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free! Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016 Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why; We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock. If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices, read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels. Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow? The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model) The moment that money crossed $40b mark, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018. This reserve will boost investors confidence that the economy is liquid enough for profit repatriation, that is how the jobs will return, job creation is private sector driven, not govt. Among the three oil dependent economies in Africa that landed in recession within the same period, Nigeria was the first to exit recession, that was historical & mind blowing, despite fighting terrorism and with a massive population, we did it first before any other country. By Blocking loopholes Our Federal allocation that used to be a misery 311b naira in june 2016 is between 600-700b naira in presently. This volume if held steady will continue providing liquidity that will surely inflate the economy. Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model) https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/ As you can see here, Manufacturing is gradually expanding, next will be jobs returning on its own https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/08/cbn-at-57-0-pmi-manufacturing-sector-expanded-in-june/amp/ We don't need Atiku's stealing to truncate an economic process already in recovery. In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity. Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything. We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place. leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished? Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners? Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lies peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot at this perilous time. Fraudulent Leadership that wants to sell 90% of NNPC robbing us of 74% of our forex needs, Leadership that wants to spend $90b annually building infrastructures when Nigeria earns less than $30b annually. It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works. In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest. Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once bombed Abuja for fun but Today the once Almighty Shekau is in hiding? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies? When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US. May God help us!! Watch Peter obi summarize this analysis https://twitter.com/i/status/1058007016810123264 3 Likes 2 Shares |
| Politics › Re: Atiku's Us Visa Ban Still In Place, Given A Waiver For January Visit -bloomberg by jpphilips(op): 11:45am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Most worrisome is the fact that Nigerians could be fooled this easily, APC isnt as smart as I thought after all, how difficult was it to expose this cheap scam yet they were busy protesting his Visa in Abuja, damn!! 79 Likes 11 Shares |
| Politics › Atiku's Us Visa Ban Still In Place, Given A Waiver For January Visit -bloomberg by jpphilips(op): 11:42am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Until last month, Nigerian presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar had a problem. He was persona non grata in the U.S. after cropping up in connection with several corruption investigations. Then the cloud lifted. Years after he’d last been seen in the U.S., Abubakar surfaced in Washington in January. He held court at the Trump International Hotel. He met with members of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Congress. Those meetings were trumpeted to his followers back home on Facebook and Twitter. The public tour has helped silence opponents who said Abubakar couldn’t effectively lead one of Africa’s biggest economies if he wasn’t even welcome in the U.S. Abubakar had been blocked from entering the U.S. under a State Department edict applying to officials linked to foreign corruption, two former U.S. officials said. One of them said the Nigerian had been seeking a waiver to enter the country for years and expressed surprise when told that the effort was ultimately successful. Abubakar’s rehabilitation was driven in part by Washington lobbyists and lawyers with links to President Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential race. Ballard Partners -- run by Brian Ballard, a fundraiser for Trump’s campaign who now has a deep roster of clients eager for an inside track to the administration -- helped set up meetings for the candidate in the U.S., according to people familiar with the firm’s work for him. Law firm Holland & Knight lobbied the State Department, House of Representatives and National Security Council on Abubakar’s behalf on visa issues, according to a disclosure filed with Congress. The firm’s lead lobbyist on the effort was Scott Mason, who previously directed congressional relations for Trump’s campaign and transition team. In defusing opponents’ chief criticism, the U.S. visit and meetings positioned Abubakar as a stronger challenger, not to mention a potential international partner to the U.S. should he prevail in Nigeria’s Feb. 16 presidential race. He’s the leading opposition candidate to run Africa’s most populous nation and top petroleum producer, where wealth and corruption mix with extreme poverty to create deep concerns about security and safety. A member of Abubakar’s communications team, Boladale Adekoya, denied Abubakar had been banned from the U.S. A State Department representative declined to comment. Mason didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Ballard referred questions to its lead lobbyist for Abubakar’s political party, James P. Rubin, who said he wasn’t involved in getting the travel visa and was focused on pushing for fair elections in Nigeria. Cash in Freezer Abubakar’s troubles with the U.S. date back more than a decade. In 2004, George W. Bush signed a presidential proclamation meant to deny corrupt foreign officials a coveted luxury -- fluid access to the good life in America and a safe place to stash ill-gotten proceeds. Abubakar’s name surfaced in two criminal cases in the U.S. -- the prosecution of German engineering giant Siemens AG for paying bribes to officials in Africa, and the prosecution of former U.S. Representative William Jefferson.In the latter case, Abubakar, then Nigeria’s vice president, gained notoriety for his connection to $90,000 in cash found in Jefferson’s freezer in 2005. In a secretly videotaped conversation, Jefferson told an undercover informant that the money was for Abubakar, intended to smooth the way for a U.S. company’s African expansion. Prosecutors never introduced evidence showing Abubakar solicited or accepted a bribe, and he was never prosecuted. Jefferson was convicted, though his case was partially overturned on appeal. Abubakar was also the subject of a 2010 congressional investigation, which found that he and his wife transferred more than $40 million in suspect funds into the U.S. from offshore corporations. Lawmakers said Abubakar held a stake in an oil-services company that received hundreds of millions of dollars in payments from Western companies seeking to do business in Africa, including when he was vice president. Abubakar has attributed his wealth to prudent investments and luck. In an interview, Edward Weidenfeld, a Washington lawyer who represented Abubakar at the time of the Jefferson and Siemens cases, said he maintained his innocence in those proceedings. Adekoya, the Abubakar spokesman, said Jefferson had falsely accused Abubakar of being the intended recipient of the cash. Regarding the $40 million Abubakar brought into the U.S., Adekoya said it was intended as payment to American University to launch a school in Nigeria. He added that Abubakar is a “reputable entrepreneur" and a successful businessman, that his funds were from legitimate business ventures and that his oil-services stake was held in trust while he was in office. Visa Waiver Once the State Department bars a foreign official it becomes difficult to get the ban rescinded, according to the two officials. By U.S. law, the status of visa applications is confidential. So are the identities of barred foreign officials. The process by which people get on or off the list is also opaque.In certain cases, the department will grant temporary waivers allowing dignitaries to visit, often with limits on duration and itinerary. If indeed a ban were in place, Abubakar may have been granted a waiver to encourage good relations should he win, one of the officials said. Holland & Knight, which was hired at the end of October, disclosed payments of $80,000 in relation to its visa work for Abubakar. [/b]Through his spokesman, Abubakar said he applied for and received a visa through the U.S. mission in Nigeria. [b]Abubakar’s People’s Democratic Party of Nigeria inked a $1.1 million annual contract with Ballard Partners last fall, according to foreign lobbying records filed with the Justice Department. People familiar with Ballard’s work on Abubakar’s behalf said it included getting him a meeting at the State Department during his visit and shepherding him to various events. Rubin, Ballard’s primary lobbyist on behalf of Abubakar’s party, was an assistant secretary of state during the Clinton administration. He joined Ballard’s firm as a lobbyist last year, according to a disclosure filing. (He was also previously an executive who helped lead Bloomberg’s editorial page, then called Bloomberg View.) “My work on behalf of the People’s Democratic Party exclusively focused on pushing for free and fair elections and did not involve any consular matter or visa matter,” Rubin said. Ballard’s Roster Ballard Partners opened its Washington office in 2017, just months after Trump’s election. Ballard had previously been as a lobbyist in Florida for Trump; after the election, he was a member of Trump’s inaugural committee. The expanding client roster includes household corporate names such as Amazon.com Inc., Boeing Co., Uber Technologies Inc. and H&R Block Inc., according to lobbying disclosures filed with Congress. Ballard has also attracted a roster of foreign governments such as Kosovo, Qatar, the Maldives and Azerbaijan. Another pair of clients, the Republic of Turkey and Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS, have been implicated in U.S. court proceedings in a scheme to aid Iranian sanctions evasion, for which Halkbank remains under scrutiny by U.S. authorities. The firm has also been expanding and adding firepower, in recent weeks hiring other Trump loyalists including a recent White House spokesman, Raj Shah, and the former attorney general of Florida, Pam Bondi. As attorney general, Bondi declined to pursue fraud charges against Trump University after Trump’s charitable foundation gave $25,000 in 2013 to a re-election fund for Bondi. During his visit, Abubakar held a “town hall” at the Trump International Hotel in Washington to meet with Nigerians in the U.S. He also appeared on a panel at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, stopped at the office of the Voice of America and met with Representative Chris Smith, a New Jersey Republican. Abubakar’s campaign broadcast the town hall meeting on Facebook, and he posted a string of photos of his U.S. visit and meetings to his Twitter account, including one from his arrival at the airport putting him back on U.S. soil. A spokesman for Smith didn’t respond to questions about the meeting. A Chamber of Commerce spokeswoman said the roundtable discussion was private. — With assistance by Greg Farrell, Tope Alake, and Bill Allison https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-04/trump-linked-lobbyists-help-nigerian-politician-gain-u-s-access 14 Likes 7 Shares |
| Celebrities › Re: Yul Edochie Goes From House To House To Campaign For Atiku And Obi by jpphilips(m): 10:57am On Feb 18, 2019 |
IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES? A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance? Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered. Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth. What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies? Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession. Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession. Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford. In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation. Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency. Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate. The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy. Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages. Okonjo iweala then finance minister and coordinator of the economy actually warned Nigerians in 2014 long before buhari came that the level of mismanagement will bring hunger to us, read here: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html If okonjo iweala saw this hunger in 2014, warned us about it, how can a sane person accuse buhari of bringing hardship? Between 2015-2017, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone? The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves, It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings). Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS. This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings. Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team. Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $194b in a $156.1b economy (122% of GDP in savings).You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time (3.8% of GDP), that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings? Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago. The kwanza fell 11 percent to 187.95 per dollar by 3:35 p.m. in Luanda and depreciated 10 percent to 221.75 against the euro. The move came a day after the central bank allowed the currency to weaken in its first auction of foreign exchange since announcing it would end a dollar peg that’s been in place since April 2016.....BloombergBorrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/ Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016. https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday. Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously. Poverty in Angola According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million. I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $194b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock. Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014. Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014. My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free! Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016 Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why; We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock. If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices, read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels. Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow? The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model) The moment that money crossed $40b mark, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018. This reserve will boost investors confidence that the economy is liquid enough for profit repatriation, that is how the jobs will return, job creation is private sector driven, not govt. Among the three oil dependent economies in Africa that landed in recession within the same period, Nigeria was the first to exit recession, that was historical & mind blowing, despite fighting terrorism and with a massive population, we did it first before any other country. By Blocking loopholes Our Federal allocation that used to be a misery 311b naira in june 2016 is between 600-700b naira in presently. This volume if held steady will continue providing liquidity that will surely inflate the economy. Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model) https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/ As you can see here, Manufacturing is gradually expanding, next will be jobs returning on its own https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/08/cbn-at-57-0-pmi-manufacturing-sector-expanded-in-june/amp/ We don't need Atiku's stealing to truncate an economic process already in recovery. In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity. Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything. We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place. leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished? Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners? Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lies peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot at this perilous time. Fraudulent Leadership that wants to sell 90% of NNPC robbing us of 74% of our forex needs, Leadership that wants to spend $90b annually building infrastructures when Nigeria earns less than $30b annually. It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works. In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest. Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once bombed Abuja for fun but Today the once Almighty Shekau is in hiding? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies? When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US. May God help us!! Watch Peter obi summarize this analysis https://twitter.com/i/status/1058007016810123264 8 Likes 3 Shares |
| Politics › Re: Undue Foreign Electoral Collusion - An Emerging War Game by jpphilips(m): 10:08am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Racoon:Niger republic does not release press statement in English neither are their state itineraries presented in English. Try another lie. 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Undue Foreign Electoral Collusion - An Emerging War Game by jpphilips(m): 10:06am On Feb 18, 2019*. Modified: 10:55am On Feb 18, 2019 |
netpro:Trump is a business man, not a local one but one with a global foot print, accusing trump of colluding with the Russians is like asking a teacher why he has chalk disease. About PDP and the US, you fell for PDP gimmicks, the US have not made any move that signifies they are in bed with the PDP, besides, PDP has one of the worst candidates any sane US politician will wish to associate with. Atiku is bad market for US politicians however Nigerians wish to deny it, the last US congressman that hobnobbed with Atiku ended up in prison, his political career ended that moment. What PDP is doing is practically paying lobbyists to pull an inconsequential effect, then come home to amplify it beyond its true value, its an OBJ strategy, he used it to aid the APC against Jonathan, he is using it to aid the pdp, however what really is its true value is the right question to ask? Atiku going to the US is not a big deal because according to Reuters, he was invited temporarily to be admonished by selected congress committees on the conduct of the elections, most of whom were members of the committee that indicted him in 2010. is that really a big deal? does that even mean collusion with trump's administration? hell no!! In 2015, Secretary Kelly was in Nigeria specifically to secure and strategize with the opposition, in 2019, Atiku on twitter is making false claims that secretary Pompeo called him  If they so love him and willing to work with him in leading Nigeria, why not make his visit permanent? read here: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-election-atiku-exclusive/exclusive-nigerian-candidates-us-visit-was-temporary-reprieve-from-graft-ban-idUSKCN1PT0TR Read again here from Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-04/trump-linked-lobbyists-help-nigerian-politician-gain-u-s-access In the lower chamber of congress, Trump's republican party are opposition so a republican in HOR is a feather weight. Think about it, Brian ballard whom Atiku hired to pull that US stunt wont have any problems scheduling a meeting with guys like Chris smith who is linked to Law firm Holland & Knight that lobbied the home land security for Atiku's visa waiver, its temporary and has no direct Trump administration links. Atiku merely got the effect pulled by his money's worth, that's all, no US official from US media is directly linked to Atiku's campaign, at least for now. Atiku's handlers understanding the naivety of Nigerians are exaggerating their real influence, selling hogwash in local media to obfuscate the crack heads in the APC setting you guys into a panic mode, follow Atiku on the global stage, he is merely riding on OBJ's global clout, he is practically a nobody, dont be deceived. 2020 is an election year in the US, Atiku is the last person any US top dog will wish to associate with, trust me their politics work differently. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: 2019 Presidential Election: I Am Not A Naive Yoruba Man by jpphilips(m): 10:02am On Feb 18, 2019 |
IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES? A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance? Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered. Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth. What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies? Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession. Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession. Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford. In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation. Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency. Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate. The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy. Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages. Okonjo iweala then finance minister and coordinator of the economy actually warned Nigerians in 2014 long before buhari came that the level of mismanagement will bring hunger to us, read here: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html If okonjo iweala saw this hunger in 2014, warned us about it, how can a sane person accuse buhari of bringing hardship? Between 2015-2017, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone? The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves, It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings). Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS. This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings. Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team. Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $194b in a $156.1b economy (122% of GDP in savings).You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time (3.8% of GDP), that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings? Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago. The kwanza fell 11 percent to 187.95 per dollar by 3:35 p.m. in Luanda and depreciated 10 percent to 221.75 against the euro. The move came a day after the central bank allowed the currency to weaken in its first auction of foreign exchange since announcing it would end a dollar peg that’s been in place since April 2016.....BloombergBorrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/ Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016. https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday. Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously. Poverty in Angola According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million. I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $90b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock. Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014. Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014. My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free! Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016 Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why; We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock. If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices, read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels. Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow? The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model) The moment that money crossed $40b mark, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018. This reserve will boost investors confidence that the economy is liquid enough for profit repatriation, that is how the jobs will return, job creation is private sector driven, not govt. Among the three oil dependent economies in Africa that landed in recession within the same period, Nigeria was the first to exit recession, that was historical & mind blowing, despite fighting terrorism and with a massive population, we did it first before any other country. By Blocking loopholes Our Federal allocation that used to be a misery 311b naira in june 2016 is between 600-700b naira in presently. This volume if held steady will continue providing liquidity that will surely inflate the economy. Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model) https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/ As you can see here, Manufacturing is gradually expanding, next will be jobs returning on its own https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/08/cbn-at-57-0-pmi-manufacturing-sector-expanded-in-june/amp/ We don't need Atiku's stealing to truncate an economic process already in recovery. In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity. Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything. We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place. leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished? Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners? Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lies peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot at this perilous time. It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works. In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest. Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once bombed Abuja for fun but Today the once Almighty Shekau is in hiding? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies? When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US. May God help us!! Watch Peter obi summarize this analysis https://twitter.com/i/status/1058007016810123264 3 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Inec Staff: Inec Prepared For Election In 4 Months Not 4 Years by jpphilips(m): 9:59am On Feb 18, 2019 |
IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES? A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance? Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered. Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth. What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies? Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession. Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession. Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford. In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation. Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency. Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate. The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy. Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages. Okonjo iweala then finance minister and coordinator of the economy actually warned Nigerians in 2014 long before buhari came that the level of mismanagement will bring hunger to us, read here: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html If okonjo iweala saw this hunger in 2014, warned us about it, how can a sane person accuse buhari of bringing hardship? Between 2015-2017, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone? The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves, It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings). Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS. This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings. Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team. Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $194b in a $156.1b economy (122% of GDP in savings).You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time (3.8% of GDP), that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings? Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago. The kwanza fell 11 percent to 187.95 per dollar by 3:35 p.m. in Luanda and depreciated 10 percent to 221.75 against the euro. The move came a day after the central bank allowed the currency to weaken in its first auction of foreign exchange since announcing it would end a dollar peg that’s been in place since April 2016.....BloombergBorrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/ Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016. https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday. Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously. Poverty in Angola According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million. I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $90b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock. Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014. Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014. My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free! Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016 Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why; We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock. If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices, read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels. Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow? The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model) The moment that money crossed $40b mark, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018. This reserve will boost investors confidence that the economy is liquid enough for profit repatriation, that is how the jobs will return, job creation is private sector driven, not govt. Among the three oil dependent economies in Africa that landed in recession within the same period, Nigeria was the first to exit recession, that was historical & mind blowing, despite fighting terrorism and with a massive population, we did it first before any other country. By Blocking loopholes Our Federal allocation that used to be a misery 311b naira in june 2016 is between 600-700b naira in presently. This volume if held steady will continue providing liquidity that will surely inflate the economy. Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model) https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/ As you can see here, Manufacturing is gradually expanding, next will be jobs returning on its own https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/08/cbn-at-57-0-pmi-manufacturing-sector-expanded-in-june/amp/ We don't need Atiku's stealing to truncate an economic process already in recovery. In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity. Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything. We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place. leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished? Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners? Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lies peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot at this perilous time. It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works. In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest. Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once bombed Abuja for fun but Today the once Almighty Shekau is in hiding? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies? When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US. May God help us!! Watch Peter obi summarize this analysis https://twitter.com/i/status/1058007016810123264 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: PDP And APC Please React To This! by jpphilips(m): 9:58am On Feb 18, 2019 |
dokie:Seriously? did you sincerely ask this question? really? are you daft? 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: PDP And APC Please React To This! by jpphilips(m): 9:55am On Feb 18, 2019 |
olawalepopoola:Saraki wants to get Nigeria working again, but couldn't get INEC's budget to work!! Nigerians deserve the leaders they get. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: PDP And APC Please React To This! by jpphilips(m): 9:51am On Feb 18, 2019 |
IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES? A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance? Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered. Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth. What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies? Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession. Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession. Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford. In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation. Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency. Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate. The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy. Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages. Okonjo iweala then finance minister and coordinator of the economy actually warned Nigerians in 2014 long before buhari came that the level of mismanagement will bring hunger to us, read here: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html If okonjo iweala saw this hunger in 2014, warned us about it, how can a sane person accuse buhari of bringing hardship? Between 2015-2017, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone? The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves, It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings). Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS. This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings. Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team. Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $194b in a $156.1b economy (122% of GDP in savings).You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time (3.8% of GDP), that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings? Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago. The kwanza fell 11 percent to 187.95 per dollar by 3:35 p.m. in Luanda and depreciated 10 percent to 221.75 against the euro. The move came a day after the central bank allowed the currency to weaken in its first auction of foreign exchange since announcing it would end a dollar peg that’s been in place since April 2016.....BloombergBorrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/ Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016. https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday. Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously. Poverty in Angola According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million. I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $90b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock. Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014. Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014. My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free! Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016 Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why; We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock. If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices, read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels. Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow? The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model) The moment that money crossed $40b mark, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018. This reserve will boost investors confidence that the economy is liquid enough for profit repatriation, that is how the jobs will return, job creation is private sector driven, not govt. Among the three oil dependent economies in Africa that landed in recession within the same period, Nigeria was the first to exit recession, that was historical & mind blowing, despite fighting terrorism and with a massive population, we did it first before any other country. By Blocking loopholes Our Federal allocation that used to be a misery 311b naira in june 2016 is between 600-700b naira in presently. This volume if held steady will continue providing liquidity that will surely inflate the economy. Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model) https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/ As you can see here, Manufacturing is gradually expanding, next will be jobs returning on its own https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/08/cbn-at-57-0-pmi-manufacturing-sector-expanded-in-june/amp/ We don't need Atiku's stealing to truncate an economic process already in recovery. In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity. Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything. We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place. leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished? Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners? Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lies peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot at this perilous time. It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works. In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest. Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once bombed Abuja for fun but Today the once Almighty Shekau is in hiding? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies? When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US. May God help us!! Watch Peter obi summarize this analysis https://twitter.com/i/status/1058007016810123264 2 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: Why You Need To Vote Atiku Abubakar As President Of Nigeria by jpphilips(m): 9:50am On Feb 18, 2019 |
IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES? A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance? Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered. Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth. What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies? Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession. Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession. Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford. In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation. Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency. Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate. The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy. Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages. Okonjo iweala then finance minister and coordinator of the economy actually warned Nigerians in 2014 long before buhari came that the level of mismanagement will bring hunger to us, read here: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html If okonjo iweala saw this hunger in 2014, warned us about it, how can a sane person accuse buhari of bringing hardship? Between 2015-2017, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone? The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves, It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings). Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS. This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings. Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team. Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $194b in a $156.1b economy (122% of GDP in savings).You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time (3.8% of GDP), that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings? Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago. The kwanza fell 11 percent to 187.95 per dollar by 3:35 p.m. in Luanda and depreciated 10 percent to 221.75 against the euro. The move came a day after the central bank allowed the currency to weaken in its first auction of foreign exchange since announcing it would end a dollar peg that’s been in place since April 2016.....BloombergBorrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/ Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016. https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday. Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously. Poverty in Angola According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million. I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $90b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock. Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014. Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014. My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free! Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016 Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why; We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock. If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices, read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels. Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow? The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model) The moment that money crossed $40b mark, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018. This reserve will boost investors confidence that the economy is liquid enough for profit repatriation, that is how the jobs will return, job creation is private sector driven, not govt. Among the three oil dependent economies in Africa that landed in recession within the same period, Nigeria was the first to exit recession, that was historical & mind blowing, despite fighting terrorism and with a massive population, we did it first before any other country. By Blocking loopholes Our Federal allocation that used to be a misery 311b naira in june 2016 is between 600-700b naira in presently. This volume if held steady will continue providing liquidity that will surely inflate the economy. Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model) https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/ As you can see here, Manufacturing is gradually expanding, next will be jobs returning on its own https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/08/cbn-at-57-0-pmi-manufacturing-sector-expanded-in-june/amp/ We don't need Atiku's stealing to truncate an economic process already in recovery. In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity. Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything. We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place. leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished? Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners? Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lies peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot at this perilous time. It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works. In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest. Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once bombed Abuja for fun but Today the once Almighty Shekau is in hiding? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies? When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US. May God help us!! Watch Peter obi summarize this analysis https://twitter.com/i/status/1058007016810123264 2 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: It Seems Out Of Every 20 Yorubas, Only One Will Vote Atiku by jpphilips(m): 9:46am On Feb 18, 2019 |
Clerverly:Do you expect Igbos to ignore Obi and Vote osibanjo? at least our tribalism hasn't matured to that level. |
| Politics › Re: Are Nigerians Better Off Today Under Buhari Than 4 Years Ago? - Sen Saraki by jpphilips(m): 9:42am On Feb 18, 2019 |
OreMI22:The way PDP shamelessly mention Nigerians irritate me, how is it our problem? we sacked you guys in 2015, have we asked you to return? 2 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: Are Nigerians Better Off Today Under Buhari Than 4 Years Ago? - Sen Saraki by jpphilips(m): 9:38am On Feb 18, 2019 |
OreMI22:Atiku can never represent hope, only a toddler with no knowledge of his privatization scams will say what you just said, it will be smarter to say that you need Atiku to release our corrupt prisoners, that will make a better sense. 2 Likes 2 Shares |
| Politics › Re: Are Nigerians Better Off Today Under Buhari Than 4 Years Ago? - Sen Saraki by jpphilips(m): 9:34am On Feb 18, 2019 |
[quote author=theoldpretender post=75843459][/quote]Whether or not Nigerians want to hear the truth is immaterial, I can tell you for free there must be consequences whichever political divide they lean on, we planned to organize a protest at the national assembly in 2014 when our reserves started growing wings under the umbrella party, we couldn't get a single volunteer, while the ignorant losers called us opposition, it was later that I realized that the average Nigerian lack the ability to connect cost of living with their reserves, what happened eventually? By 2016 most of them are hungry, statistically, we became the hunger headquarters of the world, the same Nigerians that refused to protest over dwindling reserves are the same people begging for regime change, in their ignorance, they think regime change is the solution, lol, you can see lately, ive reduced my foot print on Nairaland, if Nigerians make any mistake on Saturday, they will have another round of crisis to contend with, were they not sold for $300 in Libya in 2017? was I sold? Am I hungry? having the knowledge is the best gift i have given to myself, i care very little about individuals that make poor political choices. In their deepest ignorance they said once an administration doesn't perform, they will change it, the problem is that some administration can create irreversible problems, Jonathan allowed 400kbbls of oil selling at $115/bbls to be stolen on a daily basis, those could have formed a huge component of the reserves we no longer have, will oil sell for $100 anytime soon? the answer is hell NO!! Have they not removed Jonathan? yes!! so you see, they have no clue what the consequence is, let them vote their Atiku, they will surely pay the price. 3 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: Oshiomhole Asks INEC To Apologize, The Look On INEC Chairman Got Nigerians Talki by jpphilips(m): 7:45am On Feb 17, 2019 |
WATCHOVER:You sincerely mentioned Atiku & Nigerians on the same sentence? You truly believe what you just said? apparently Atiku is on your side? Really? You have no clue who Atiku is. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: Why Former US President Bill Clinton Is Visiting Buhari, Atiku by jpphilips(m): 7:44am On Feb 16, 2019 |
bigfish3k:NJC immunity? how old are you? Damn I wasted my facts on a toddler 3 Likes 1 Share |
| Politics › Re: Why Former US President Bill Clinton Is Visiting Buhari, Atiku by jpphilips(m): 6:46am On Feb 16, 2019*. Modified: 6:27pm On Feb 16, 2019 |
bigfish3k: The sad part of ignorance is that it robs you the ability for rational thinking and also makes you a closed circuit to new learning. Everything you are typing here are not based on facts but the crack opinion of politicians on social media, for the sake of your destiny, I will bring some facts closer to you. Jonathan subsidized you to 87 naira at what cost? He sold oil at $115, his budget in 2013 was 4.87T but in march 2013, RMFAC shared 1.3T naira, what that means is that Jonathan earned nearly a quarter of his annual budget in 1 month. So Jonathan can afford to subsidize you to 87 naira, Buhari does not have that luxury..as a matter of fact, Buhari has been on budget deficit since 2015 (I just hope you understand what that means) in reality, Buhari can not afford to subsidize you to 87 naira, despite that, Jonathan blessed us with scarcity every quarter that trippled that official price, im sure places like the south east never bought pms at 87 naira because of bureaucracies and deliberate inefficiencies created in the process. At the time Jonathan left in 2015, dollar in the black market was 220 naira, its so sad when my mechanic tells me the price of dollars when I have it in my wallet, a tailor tells me the econometrics of Nigeria, dont quote figures for the fun of it, ask the right questions. You said Buhari's policies caused recession, perhaps a looter like FFK told you that nonsese because he knows you can't reason for yourself, now listen, By the second quarter of 2016, almost 2yrs of crude oil shock, 3 countries in Africa fell into recession almost the same time, Nigeria, Angola & Egypt. What does these countries have in common? Major exporters of crude oil not Buhari. You said Buhari is academically deficient and you drew that conclusion on the "candidates" well, im not pmb's school teacher so I can not speak of his academic sagacity, I am at a limbo why folks like you believe Obi will run Atiku's economy but pmb makes economic decision with the same constitution? Isn't that a joke? The economy of Nigeria is run under a structure called NEC headed by the VP who you know is a professor working with consultants attached to his office. Jonathan was the only president that handed NEC over to Okonjo Iweala under the unconstitutional jargon called the cordinator of the economy at a time she was head of fiscal policies. You said APC governors asked Jonathan to share one of our reserves components and such failed logic makes sense to you? A mere governor tells a president to share national reserves and the president obliges? Really? I thought you said that man has a PhD? When OBJ was an illiterate am not sure you were born then, governors made the same request, not only did he ignore them, he refused to appear in court on that matter, thats an illiterate. Yaradua a Bsc holder was taken to court on the same matter, yet he refused but conceded to use $3.3b of the money to fund the NIPP. Give me two reasons Why Jonathan nor his party should be returned to power despite the hardship their inactions brought, go and tell illiterate Buhari to share national reserves with you lets see how it goes, mtchew!! 3 Likes 2 Shares |
| Politics › Re: Why Former US President Bill Clinton Is Visiting Buhari, Atiku by jpphilips(m): 5:55am On Feb 16, 2019 |
bigfish3k:Stick to the subject please, we are discussing foreign investors and you mentioned Dasuki, really? remind me again what is that thing you smoke called? You have no clue who a foreign investor is nor what their priorities are, you sound like those ignoramus that Said 2yrs ago that pmb sacked foreign investors when our economy didn't even have dollars for them to repartriate their profit, I wonder which should be the priority? I feel sorry for most of you really. I don't have time to insult anyone, sometimes its fair to speak the truth and damn the consequences. You don't come online to shout around what you have no clue about yet expect nobody to tell you how clueless you are, it doesn't work that way. Let me advise you for free, don't ever assume that what you think is correct or your gut feelings is a fact, every opinion you choose to enthrone must pass through the clinical prognosis of research & precedence before adopting it as a fact. You don't tell people what you think foreign investors are concerned about when you havent asked them yourself. Nigeria attracted the biggest oil companies in the world during the military era, when our justice system is at its ebb, this is a fact, you can now argue with your house help!! 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Why Former US President Bill Clinton Is Visiting Buhari, Atiku by jpphilips(m): 10:44am On Feb 14, 2019*. Modified: 7:42am On Feb 16, 2019 |
bigfish3k:Democrats control the HOR not the Senate, Gandollar is protected by immunity, CJN isnt, Ive read most of the things you wrote, you are empty, just feeding on social media junks. Buhari inherited a 12.1T debt from Jonathan, he has borrowed about 10T to jump start you out of recession, if you think its too much, go and read the Obama stimulus package. If you are smart, you should be asking what a man that sold oil at great price was doing borrowing 12T naira when his mates world over were emassing huge foreign reserves. Don't bother replying, you are poorly informed, go and vote your Atiku, the next government will definitely invest in education if they want sane people like us to form majority of their voters. 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Why Former US President Bill Clinton Is Visiting Buhari, Atiku by jpphilips(m): 10:15am On Feb 14, 2019 |
[quote author=bigfish3k post=75663849][/quote]Read this post very carefully, ask questions before you open that ignorant mouth of yours again in public, only in Nigeria you have a tailor discussing the economy. IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES? A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance? Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered. Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth. What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies? Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession. Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession. Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford. In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation. Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency. Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate. The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy. Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages. Okonjo iweala then finance minister and coordinator of the economy actually warned Nigerians in 2014 long before buhari came that the level of mismanagement will bring hunger to us, read here: https://www.premiumtimesng.com/business/171145-brace-tougher-times-ahead-okonjo-iweala-tells-nigerians.html If okonjo iweala saw this hunger in 2014, warned us about it, how can a sane person accuse buhari of bringing hardship? Between 2015-2017, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone? The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves, It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings). Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS. This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings. Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team. Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $194b in a $156.1b economy (122% of GDP in savings).You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time (3.8% of GDP), that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings? Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago. The kwanza fell 11 percent to 187.95 per dollar by 3:35 p.m. in Luanda and depreciated 10 percent to 221.75 against the euro. The move came a day after the central bank allowed the currency to weaken in its first auction of foreign exchange since announcing it would end a dollar peg that’s been in place since April 2016.....BloombergBorrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/ Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016. https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday. Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously. Poverty in Angola According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million. I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $194b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock. Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014. Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014. My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free! Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016 Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why; We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock. If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices, read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels. Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow? The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model) The moment that money crossed $40b mark, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018. This reserve will boost investors confidence that the economy is liquid enough for profit repatriation, that is how the jobs will return, job creation is private sector driven, not govt. Among the three oil dependent economies in Africa that landed in recession within the same period, Nigeria was the first to exit recession, that was historical & mind blowing, despite fighting terrorism and with a massive population, we did it first before any other country. By Blocking loopholes Our Federal allocation that used to be a misery 311b naira in june 2016 is between 600-700b naira in presently. This volume if held steady will continue providing liquidity that will surely inflate the economy. Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model) https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/ As you can see here, Manufacturing is gradually expanding, next will be jobs returning on its own https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/07/08/cbn-at-57-0-pmi-manufacturing-sector-expanded-in-june/amp/ We don't need Atiku's stealing to truncate an economic process already in recovery. In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity. Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything. We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place. leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished? Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners? Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lies peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot at this perilous time. Fraudulent Leadership that wants to sell 90% of NNPC robbing us of 74% of our forex needs, Leadership that wants to spend $90b annually building infrastructures when Nigeria earns less than $30b annually. It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works. In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest. Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once bombed Abuja for fun but Today the once Almighty Shekau is in hiding? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies? When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US. May God help us!! Watch Peter obi summarize this analysis https://twitter.com/i/status/1058007016810123264 2 Likes |
| Politics › Re: Why Former US President Bill Clinton Is Visiting Buhari, Atiku by jpphilips(m): 9:21pm On Feb 13, 2019*. Modified: 10:05am On Feb 14, 2019 |
bigfish3k:Where did Ogoni people sue shell for Saro-wiwa? Where did Apple Sue Samsung? Where did P& ID sue Nigeria? Dasuki is now a foreign investor abi? What you think is immaterial in the face of facts, your CJN debacle is a non issue with investors because they hardly use your courts, learn & keep quiet. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: Your Presidency Reeks Of Corruption - PDP Tells Buhari by jpphilips(m): 8:12pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
SaiATKUOBI2019:The first recession in Nigeria was 1987, I know you are an illiterate that has nothing to sell Atiku with but lies, let me make you a promise, your lies will be destroyed, Atiku will be gladly defeated on Saturday, relax!! |
| Politics › Re: Why Former US President Bill Clinton Is Visiting Buhari, Atiku by jpphilips(m): 8:01pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
JimD:Just look at the nitwit I wasted a response on. |
| Politics › Re: Why Former US President Bill Clinton Is Visiting Buhari, Atiku by jpphilips(m): 7:49pm On Feb 13, 2019 |
bigfish3k:There are international arbitration courts where foreign investors can seek redress, your bribe taking Onnoghen is not their problem. 1 Like |
| Politics › Re: Breaking News!!! France Bankrolling Atiku's Campaign....to Buy Nnpc. by jpphilips(m): 10:32pm On Feb 11, 2019 |
Niwdog:You simply don't understand what NNPC does, who will help this national symbol of ignorance? 2 Likes 1 Share |
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