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KarlTom's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 12:13pm On Jul 31, 2024
Spot on... wink
ositadima1:
You want to commit more money to a company that has clear issues? This looks more like an emotional move to me. If I were you, even if I wanted to average down, I would wait to see positive financials or corporate disclosure. Even if a merger is planned, how do you merge a company that is carrying negative equity? It will surely significantly reduce the controlling ratios of DS (I maybe very wrong).

Anyway, Mcy56 said the loss has already been priced in. The experts have spoken, sha. undecided
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 12:06pm On Jul 31, 2024
I am not good with TA/FA/SA. wink

Heishere:
Thanks for the comfort. So I should average down?
You can refer to this post by BB or contact him for entry points...

BullBearMkt:
DANGSUGAR IN ANOTHER HEAVY LOSS, A SELL?
The stock price currently hovering around Bullish Order Block. The stock has potential of reversal at this level. Wait for rejection candle for confirmation

PLAN YOUR TRADES TRADE YOUR PLANS
grin grin grin grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 11:08am On Jul 31, 2024
Time to Sit back. Relax. Enjoy your gains... grin
ojeysky:
I was shocked when I saw it back to 27 but no regrets 100% made on my little units...am out
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:45am On Jul 31, 2024
No info on that yet... smiley
Zegra:
Has the company submitted its merger documents to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for review and approval?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:41am On Jul 31, 2024
JIJO forever... grin

ProphetUtuocha:
Mark this:
Oando profit takers will struggle to join a moving train.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:37am On Jul 31, 2024
grin grin

Agbalowomeri:
I am here please
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 9:59pm On Jul 30, 2024
It is well... sad

Soon...

Heishere:
Chai. Na serious haircut this stock dey give person. Already down by 34% loss. I wonder how low it will go from here. By the way, someone mentioned to expected good news on Dangote foods soon.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 9:55pm On Jul 30, 2024
The market is very unpredictable in recent days (except for few stocks).

My advice is hold your funds and wait for bottom entry prices in certain stocks.

I believe that the experts will mention the stocks and the entry time... ✌🏾
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 4:38pm On Jul 30, 2024
AIICO SPECIAL BUSINESS... huh

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 4:03pm On Jul 30, 2024
You are wise... grin

SonofElElyonRet:
I exited at N35 yesterday to stand aside and observe. Will re enter when coast is clear .. partly exited UBA at N21 .. couldn't sell rest at that price. We go again. Make Prophet drop jewel quick before i spend the tashere funds
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 2:36pm On Jul 30, 2024
The good thing (so far) is that NASCON has not officially dropped from 32.35

Thanks to the MM... wink

Ginalex:
Why you go talk this kyn thing cry
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 1:57pm On Jul 30, 2024
shocked shocked

Agbalowomeri:
Gest ke. It's a good buy at N15
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 1:44pm On Jul 30, 2024
grin grin grin

yMcy56:
I also wonder oo
Doesn't people want bonus again?
Or they're afraid UCAP's bonus too might not be real?
AFRIPRUD mistake was from NGX, the officer in charge needs to be queried and suspended for toying and misleading with very sensitive info!

Announcement!!
UCAP's bonus issue of 2:1 (two new for every one held) is real ooooo
😁
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 12:47pm On Jul 30, 2024
Sure thing!
I only hope this rally can be sustained until at least NGN30... wink
mikeapollo:
Anything can happen. But the prospects of Oando going above N50 is very high, especially if the HY 2024 financials show positive results.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 12:46pm On Jul 30, 2024
UCAP on FULL OFFER... shocked grin

AFRIPUD you do this one.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 12:33pm On Jul 30, 2024
What IF the dust does not clear until km50 grin grin

megawealth01:
Anyone that missed Oando should just move on until the dust clears...

You can still buy it then sef no matter the price...

Nothing is really missed in this market as opportunities dey always dey
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 11:20am On Jul 30, 2024
The bolded might be seen as an unwarranted accusation.

The onus is ENTIRELY on you to confirm ALL information posted here AND to make your BUY or SELL decisions... wink

Choiceguy:
Village people is after my me.
Pastor Agba, what is going on Oando. bullbearmk is the man that deprived me this opportunity because of the wrong court date he posted.i was waiting to re-enter Oando later.the rest is history.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 9:51pm On Jul 29, 2024
I have actually written them... sad
Ginalex:
😆😆
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 9:41pm On Jul 29, 2024
On the issue of bonus shares, I personally don't see it as a better alternative to dividend because of the indeterminate time for actual issuance.

However you can write them via:
nasconcare@dangote.com
wink
Ginalex:
🙏😔 Na beg we dey beg... Bonus share we never still receive am🥹🥹
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 4:27pm On Jul 29, 2024
Yeah. A Corporate Action/Report from the entity supersedes any third-party information... undecided

Choiceguy:
That's why we are preaching you should always confirm what is on the table before jumping. grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 3:38pm On Jul 29, 2024
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 2:09pm On Jul 29, 2024
There will be a massive offer that will sort out ALL those 99k bids... wink

Something similar happened last Friday I think.

MARKETJJC:
I think na work of MM. I think they want to create doubt and control the fall somehow.

Full bid wey almost all bid dey 99000units😀😀
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 11:05am On Jul 29, 2024
You sound so sure... angry
Raider76:
He is trying to start another rally.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:31am On Jul 29, 2024
cool

Princkez:
OANDO oooo
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:15am On Jul 29, 2024
Rally to where?
Dey play grin
Raider76:
He is trying to start another rally.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:15am On Jul 29, 2024
Oh. My bad...

vacanci:
news since 3 years ago?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:14am On Jul 29, 2024
CUTIX on Full Bid... wink
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom:
Just seeing this... smiley

* Apologies. Deleted
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 10:00am On Jul 29, 2024
Ding! grin grin
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 9:08am On Jul 28, 2024
This detailed breakdown is appreciated.🌹
It confirmed my initial submission that DS (as a lone entity) is not far off from BF... wink

I maintain that DF will outdo BF.
ositadima1:
Consolidated Metrics Comparison (Dangote Sugar vs BUA Foods), 2023:

Return on Equity (ROE): -93.08% vs 42.78%
Return on Assets (ROA): -12.28% vs 10.47%
Net Profit Margin: -16.71% vs 15.37%
Current Ratio: 0.77 vs 0.91
Quick Ratio: 0.68 vs 0.76
FCFE (in '000 Naira): 94,498,754 vs 216,089,523

Now, let's consider scenarios without forex losses for both companies:

Dangote Sugar's forex loss: 148,328,367 ('000 Naira) (my previous 170 billion was wrong)
Adjusted Net Income: 74,568,059 ('000 Naira)

BUA Foods' forex loss: 81,864,676 ('000 Naira)
Adjusted Net Income: 193,962,173 ('000 Naira)

Adjusted Metrics (without forex losses) - Dangote Sugar vs BUA Foods:

Return on Equity (ROE): 94.10% vs 74.01%
Return on Assets (ROA): 12.41% vs 18.12%
Net Profit Margin: 16.89% vs 26.59%
Current Ratio: 0.77 vs 0.91 (unchanged)
Quick Ratio: 0.68 vs 0.76 (unchanged)
Adjusted FCFE (in '000 Naira): 242,827,121 vs 297,954,199

Analysis of Adjusted Scenarios:

1. Profitability: Without forex losses, both companies show strong profitability. Dangote Sugar's performance improves dramatically, with its ROE even surpassing BUA Foods'. BUA Foods maintains excellent profitability ratios, with a higher ROA and Net Profit Margin.

2. Liquidity: Liquidity ratios remain unchanged as they are not directly affected by the forex losses.

3. FCFE: Both companies show significantly improved FCFE without forex losses. Dangote Sugar's FCFE increases by about 157%, while BUA Foods' FCFE increases by about 38%.

Key Observations:

1. Forex losses had a substantial impact on both companies, but the effect was more pronounced for Dangote Sugar.

2. Without forex losses, both companies demonstrate strong profitability, with Dangote Sugar showing a remarkable turnaround.

3. BUA Foods maintains a higher ROA and Net Profit Margin even after adjustments, indicating potentially better operational efficiency.

4. Liquidity remains a concern for both companies, with ratios below 1, suggesting potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations.

5. The adjusted FCFE for both companies is significantly higher, indicating strong cash generation capabilities when forex impacts are removed.

6. BUA Foods still generates higher FCFE than Dangote Sugar in the adjusted scenario, but the gap narrows considerably.

Conclusion:
When forex losses are excluded, both Dangote Sugar and BUA Foods demonstrate strong financial performance. The adjusted figures reveal that both companies have solid underlying operations. BUA Foods still maintains an edge in terms of operational efficiency and cash generation. The forex losses highlight the significant impact of macroeconomic factors on these companies' financial results, emphasizing the need for robust forex risk management strategies.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 8:47pm On Jul 27, 2024
Who else noticed FOte, who rarely posts on X, has posted four tweets on Dangote/Refinery in the last 6days.

I have a strong feeling that he is a 'major' shareholder in the refinery... wink
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 8:32pm On Jul 27, 2024
Fact remains that BF will definitely be more effective. If we can get the data, we will discover that Bua Sugar was not as effective as a seperate unit.
At the bolded, there are a lot of factors:
1. Reduction in repetition and redundancy.
2. DS is implementing backward integration. This will reduce FX losses/dependance.
3. The cost of sales will definitely reduce mainly via wages and logistics.
4. etc

I am speaking from a FMCG perspective... wink
ositadima1:
If you look closely, my comparison is based on efficiency since they are both in the same space. From your perspective, DS has performed much worse, with only sugar having a bigger cost of sales compared to a whole conglomerate of products.

Though, DS is significantly larger than BUA's sugar sector.

Why do you think the merger alone will make it more efficient? They are still individual products made at different plants.

Look at my post again and see that the difference in efficiency is almost twice as much.

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