₦airaland Forum

(17/06/22)

_By Chris O_

In exercising my fundamental human rights to freedom of expression, I hereby write again about Nigeria's politics.

Before making my suggestions to Mr Peter Obi and his Labour Party, let me recall few things I had written under the title "If I Were PDP".

In my first article titled, _*"If I Were PDP*",_ I predicted that Nigeria's political race shall end up in Atiku Abubakar's favour for the PDP, and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, for the APC. These have come to be. I also said that Atiku shall win the 2023 general election by wide margin if he picks Peter Obi as his Running Mate. But Peter Obi has followed his heart and left the PDP for Labour Party. Attempts they made to lure him back to the PDP failed. Good for Obi and good for Nigeria's future. Mr Obi's exit from the PDP has ended Igbo's ambition for Presidency or VP, in the nearest future. A combination of Atiku/Obi was the closest Igbos have come in recent times. You may disagree with me on this, but this is my permutation.

I am not a PDP, APC or Labour Party person. Neither am I a spokesman for any of them. I am rather a worried Nigerian who is ashamed of the state of things in our country. More hardship is yet to come, because of reckless governance, reckless foreign borrowing, and world's economic downturns.

Whether Mr Asiwaju Bola Tinubu finally runs on a Muslim-Muslim, or Muslim-Christian ticket he will not win the 2023 election. Even if he picks both Muslim and Christian together he will still not win. This is so because I have said that if the North shall present a Goat as President, majority of Northerners shall vote for the Goat. But Atiku is not a Goat, so he will combine large Northern and Southern votes to win.

That Atiku has picked Mr Okowa of Delta State as his Running Mate, not even a sabotage, or cross-carpeting by Mr Nyesom Wike will change the tide negatively for Atiku and his PDP. But I don't think Wike is going anywhere. He will never join same party with his political enemy, Mr Rotimi Amaechi. Wike stands to benefit under the PDP than under the APC.

In my opinion, Atiku made a good decision by not picking "bulldozer" Nyesom Wike (the mad one, who wants to change mad Nigeria), as a Running Mate. Both of them would have many disagreements in office. But Okowa looks more like a quiet gentleman, in the likeness of Prof Yemi Osinbanjo ( the obedient). Wike should now wait to be compensated with a lucrative portfolio if, and when the 2023 elections finally come to be.

Now, to Peter Obi.

Peter Obi has become a phenomenon among the youths of the South, all of a sudden. The reasons for this are well known - his personality and his performance as Anambra State Governor. The wave of followership Peter is witnessing is unprecedented. The adverts in the Social Media for Mr Obi is mind-boggling. But he will not win the 2023 election unless there's divine intervention of a sort, especially through the Supreme Court, if the PDP and APC have reason to misbehave during the elections.

Nigeria's elections are largely for moneybags and ambitious thieves. Those who desire to truly change the country are few in the parties.

So, if I were Peter Obi and Labour Party, I shall adopt the following strategies:

1). _Go into alliance with Rabiu Kwankwaso and his NNPP; with other minor parties, for future building of political structures and take over of power. If the Labour Party chooses to stand alone they cannot achieve much in the 774 Local Government Areas to win an election._

2) _Reach out to past and present Governors, Senators, and Representatives, and try to win them over, using the template of the mad rush to get the PVC by the youths as a stepping stone._ _The Governors and other big guys will always try to use money and influence to have their way as usual during the next and all elections. These people have also got the security, thugs, weapons to scare away Peter Obi's potential electorates from pooling booths._ _Therefore, Peter and Labour need to get them on their side for future uses. Those who think that there will be a revolution by the youths if Peter Obi is touched by the powers that be, might be correct, but revolutions never last for long in Africa, and among power-wielding African Dictator Presidents._

3). _Peter and Labour need to start making in-roads to the North as they are making in the South. They should spend money translating the Peter Obi's brand into Hausa, Fulfudi and other northern languages._

4). _Peter should start taking his security very seriously. He should not misjudge the huge acceptance the youths are giving him at the moment to let down his guard. Some guys in the big parties might believe that Peter will take away large chunk of their votes and plan to take him out._

5). _Money, not ideas, rules Nigerian politics. Peter, Labour and other minor parties that might go into alliance with Labour should start building funds straight away._

6). _Peter should maintain his policy of not speaking ill of other politicians. Let him keep selling his ideas. It is already catching like wildfire among the hapless citizens of Nigeria._

Peter Obi has sown a seed. And this is catching on. But I foresee a future where some hawks will infiltrate Labour Party and attempt changing what is being built at present.

Let the fire of Peter Obi continue to rage!

08/06/22

_By Chris O_

Nigeria's 2023 election is now down to two men with mad vaulting ambition to rule Nigeria - Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu. I forecasted in my article of 14 April, 2022, that PDP should give their baton to Atiku, if they want to return to power, following APC's gross mishandling of rulership of Nigeria through Buhari. And Atiku finally won PDP's ticket.

With quantum of stolen Nigeria's money, Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu will both try to overspend each other, like they did in buying delegates votes, in order to become President in 2023 and fulfil a longtime dream.

There's every reason to believe that Atiku might have been having sleepless nights at the moment on whom to choose as his VP, following the exit of Mr Peter Obi from the PDP. I have the opinion that Atiku could have been trying to persuade Peter Obi to return to the PDP in order for him to be his Vice. It is not necessarily that Atiku loves Mr Obi, it is all about scooping Southern and Christians votes to make it an easy walkover over Tinubu. The masses have come to like Obi and all he stands for, hence he is a big electoral asset desirable by Atiku and PDP.

Atiku will find it difficult to manage Mr Nyesom Wike's "potential radicality" as VP, hence he has to search and search and pray for some luck to land a popular person of Southern Nigeria (possibly of Igbo extraction). Nyesom Wike on the other hand, as "betrayed" as he feels for not clinching the PDP ticket, can only be appeased by Atiku with a promise to be refunded all the money he, Wike, scooped from Rivers State's vaults with which he contested to be President. Wike will also demand a lucrative portfolio under an Atiku government, to compensate for losing narrowly to Atiku. This is how things work in Nigeria - selfish ambition all over the places.

In any case, I believe that Atiku will still win the next election, and continue with Fulani dominance in Nigeria's politics. Inwardly Buhari and all Fulanis shall be happy with this development.

With Tinubu having clinched the APC Presidential ticket, another headache has arisen for the APC. This headache is about who should be Tinubu's VP. As a Muslim, Tinubu will be walking a thin rope should he choose another Muslim from the North as his Vice. But that seems to be about the only option he has - a powerful northern Muslim, since there seems to be a dirth of influential northerners who are Christians Politician. That Nigeria is heavily divided along religious lines is not a big news to anyone, home and abroad.

Peter Obi has made his decision by joining and becoming Labour Party's Presidential Candidate. He equally has the goodwill of many young people because of the ideals he holds. It remains to be seen how Labour, without a solid structure, can upstage Atiku or Tinubu.

With the mass followership Peter Obi is gathering at the moment he can only hope for one of two things to happen: 1). _Pray for technical disqualification/notification of APC and PDP votes after the 2023 general election to his advantage,_ or
2). _Play a good opposition from 2023, while building a structure with the founders of the Labour Party for future elections._

If Atiku should be Nigeria's next president, and I have no doubts that he will, Nigerians should hold him accountable to restructure the country. We desperately need a change of constitution, true federalism and ease of doing things. We cannot continue the blind way we have been going all these years.

Watching APC's Presidential hopefuls speeches last night left me without a doubt that Nigeria has no hope with our current politicians. Majority of them pitched their comments on President Buhari as if Buhari was Nigeria.

I do not have any comments on Pastor Tunde Bakare who used God's name to say he would succeed President Buhari. With a zero vote, I can only advice that our Pastors should stop using God's name in vain.

_Shall 2023 hold politically? Let's keep our fingers crossed._

_29/05/22_

By Chris O

Finally PDP has chosen its Presidential Candidate in the person of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. He pulled the most votes, and was closely followed by Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State.

President Buhari and his kitchen cabinet had smartly used the INEC to play a smart one on PDP, by extending APC's nomination date by one week, when it became practically impossible for the PDP to reschedule theirs. APC wants to see how the PDP votes, before deciding on who carries their own flag. Having seen how the PDP voted they can now "wisely" make adjustments to choose someone whom they believe will attempt beating Atiku, and thereby continuing with President Buhari's grossly clueless and nepotic governance. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu will fight tooth and nail to carry APC flag. Can anyone stop him? We shall see in a week's time.

With Peter Obi out of the PDP, Atiku should better choose Wike, the bulldozer, as his Vice President, in order for them to beat the APC. PDP can never choose a Muslim to pair with Atiku. Wike will fight tooth and nail to be the next VP. Theirs will be the winning ticket, just like Atiku/Peter Obi would have. The Igbos have now lost their chances of becoming President in the nearest future through Mr Obi's indiscretion and thoughtless exit from the main opposition party. Refer to part 1 of this article to see my main reason for this.

Atiku had earlier promised taking Peter Obi with him in the coming dispensation, like he did a few years ago. This has now been overtaken by events.

Peter Obi has blown the Igbo chances of governing Nigeria by leaving PDP and rushing to join Labour Party. Unfortunately Labour Party has not got the structures with which to win a Presidential election. Not even a teaming up of Labour with the other minor parties can spring a surprise against APC or PDP. They need good geographical spread in the 774 local government areas in order to attempt upstaging the two major parties.

Make no mistakes about it, Peter Obi has followed his conscience by not towing the _sharing_ of money to delegates in agreement with Nigeria's deep-rooted and institutionalised corruption pattern. I commend him for following his conscience. But he has also set the Igbos backwards for many years to come by leaving the PDP. He remains the strongest and trustworthy Igbo who has the capacity to do a good job for Nigeria and Nigerians.

Truly Peter Obi has got massive followership in the social media, but that is where it ends. Large Social media followership cannot win elections in Nigeria. Money politics does, quite Unfortunately, because people are "hungry".

What happens to Pa Adebanjo and Edwin Clarke's continued crusade for Igbo Presidency? What happens to Ohaneze Ndigbo's cry against marginalisation? Continued insecurity especially in the South East? Only time will tell what happens.

Will President Buhari and his APC spring a surprise to upstage Atiku with federal might and finance? They will try very hard but I don't see that happening. Atiku wouldn't mind going for loans from United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, knowing that this is his very last chance to fulfil his vaulting ambition to rule Nigeria. He has promised good governance and restructuring of our polity. This is to be seen when, and if the time comes.

Let us also hope not to see too much instability in our security challenges and well-being that could lead to forceful change of power before May 2023.

Will 2023 be, politically? Your guess is as good as mine.

So help us, God!

By Chris O

It is no longer news that the war between Russia and Ukraine has been having ripple effects, and also bringing untold hardship to many people, going as far as Africa and beyond. Prices of foodstuffs and energy, especially in Europe, have steadily been going through the roof. The facilities and buildings in Ukraine are being devastated on a daily basis, while Russian soldiers are also dying in their thousands. Ukrainian President, Zelensky, said Russia has lost 27,000 troops and 201 aircrafts.The military figures for Ukraine is a matter of guess work. Some 20,000 Ukrainian civilians are said to been killed so far. Make no mistake about it, in war, every side claims victory over its enemies. This is what has been going on between these once good neighbours.

Worst hit in this war besides human casualties is the price of crude oil. In April 2020 a barrel of crude oil sold below _one US dollar (-$1)_. It was a time when producers ran out of space to store the oversupply of crude left by coronavirus crisis. This triggered an historic market collapse. Today, 19/05/22, crude is selling at about $140 a barrel. The ripple effects are being felt everywhere.

Mr Vladimir Putin went to war because Ukraine was nursing the ambition to become a member of NATO. While this war is still raging, Finland, which has about 800 miles long border links with Russia has formally applied to become a member of the same NATO. Sweden has also done the same. Both countries want to join NATO in response to neighbour Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And Putin is completely red in the face. His threat to Finland and Sweden never to dream of joining NATO fell on deaf ears. Yesterday night talks by these two countries to join NATO, for some reasons, grounded to a halt for now.

What should Putin do in the interim, wage a war with Finland and Sweden? That will be unthinkable, given Russia's losses in human lives and hardwares. Turkey has also raised a strong objections about Finland and Sweden joining NATO. It accused these two countries of their support for Kurdish militants. Turkey's President, Recep Erdoğan, refused to budge as he accused both countries of turning a blind eye to activities of the banned Kurdistan Workers Party.

It is said that Ukraine will soon have mobilised more than one million soldiers trained by the West and armed with modern weapons. These will fight to the last man to protect their country. This suggests that the war is far from being over.

Russia's ex-air defence commander, Mikhail Khodarenok, was quoted to have said on TV: _"the war is going badly for Russia - and will get worse"._ Another said: _"the entire world is against us."_

So, has Putin shot himself on the foot? *Time will tell.*

For us Christians, let's keep praying for God to have mercy and bring this war to an end soon.

*IF I WERE _PDP_*
_*(If I Were PDP)*_

_By Chris

I know very well that this opinion will be unpopular and unacceptable to the reading Southerners of Nigeria. I might even be stoned for holding such a "bizarre" opinion. But if I were PDP, I shall anoint Mr Atiku Abubakar as their consensus Presidential Candidate for the 2023 election. They should also choose Mr Peter Obi as his Running Mate. The two of them shall win the election over any opposition pair anointed by the APC and Mr Buhari.

While I am not sure if 2023 shall hold, politically, given the galloping level of insecurity in the country at present, I am certain that it will take an Atiku Abubakar to beat an Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, should Tinubu become the APC anointed consensus Candidate. His recent religious displays in Saudi Arabia shows how determined he is to become Nigeria's next President.

If Mr Mohammadu Buhari pulls the strings and Tinubu is chosen, he (Buhari), will put pressure on his Northern voters to vote for this Muslim gentleman. When, and if this is done, no Southern Presidential Candidate among the lot lining up under PDP, will be able to upturn the federal might (legal and financial), that Mr Buhari will throw into the election.

Where lies the Igbo determination to clinch the PDP slot, you may ask? In my thinking, Mr Peter Obi is by far about the only candidate among the PDP lineup who has a good grasp of how to turn the Nigerian economy around. He has got the technical knowledge and frugality, but he may not be in a position to handle the level of insecurity that is currently plaguing the country, without being branded anti-Muslim and anti-Islam, should the PDP choose him independent of Atiku. And this could be very dangerous.

Should a miracle happen and Mr Peter Obi is chosen and he wins the Presidency, if he wields the big stick against the terrorists, he will be accused of plans to exterminate Islam in Nigeria. And the Easterners in particular shall be targets of mindless killings all over the country.

For me, I would advise that the Igbos should wait for the next four to eight years from 2023, to try taking over power through an Atiku/Obi ticket under the PDP. By then Atiku would have checkmated terrorism to a large extent, using some templates from and with the United Arab Emirates cousins of his. It is on record that as soon as he lost the 2019 Presidential election he moved over to reside in Dubai (as we were told). He must have used the opportunity of living in Dubai for years to establish strong connections with the Arabs, who in turn may know how to placate and sort out Nigeria's terrorists.

Let us face some facts. Should Bola Tinubu carry the APC flag, he will never win over Atiku Abubakar. The reason is that the North will always vote for one of their own, even if represented by a goat. Atiku, under PDP, will always enjoy majority of Northern goodwill votes, together with votes from the South East and South South.

Although Atiku Abubakar has promised to restructure Nigeria, yet I have no confidence in the promises made by Nigerian politicians. He might well do, to stamp his name in the annals of our history, but politicians shall always be politicians. They speak from two sides of the mouth.

If the PDP and the APC decide to zone the Presidency to the South, the Fulanis in the military might think of a coup d'etat in order to continue in power. We all now know that the Fulanis are power-hungry.

Rather than jeopardise the lives and properties of the Southerners, especially those of the Igbos, they, the Igbos, should patiently wait for another political dispensation after 2023, to preside over Nigeria.

I would like to conclude with my usual strong opinion that Nigeria _can never move forward_ as presently constituted and run, unless something very radical is done to change the system we found ourselves. Both the APC and the PDP are two sides of the same coin. They are both run by a clueless, selfish, double-speaking and incompetent bunch. Only a restructured Nigeria can start a meaningful change the country deserves.

*Let us think!*

_(You may forward this if it makes some sense to you)_[i][/i]

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