₦airaland Forum

Alezy:
I like the way you explained your points. You might just have a point. The only error in all this you typed is that you still making a mistake, thinking this election would be as every other elections we have witnessed in the passed where we always have just two major parties going head to head.

* Secondly, that a state government is from a particular political party don't mean the state will vote in that direction. It's all changed now. This is the reason why Wike cannot announce that he supports APC because he knows the street is for OBI yet these are same people that would vote his governorship candidate. If he comes out openly, his candidate will lose.

This time around we have too many defining factors. And yes I agree with you for the middle belt. Whoever wins from region shouldn't get more than 55 - 60% as the other two parties would dig up votes too. But it remains the deciding region still.

you seem civilized

At least you do try to look at reality politically, for sure I get your point of the election looking different.

But in reality 95% of those chanting obi now or saying change are PDP block b4, question is how much was PDP itself able to do in 2019 election without fraction?

At bolded of yours, we call it three but in reality it's LP dividing already established PDP base, they aren't penetrating those that would even keep voting apc in their 45% upwards from Yorubaland down north

In reality there is already a voting block even when you keep saying we the people are the structure, there is never absence of a block.

PDP won the same SE/SS and some middle belt in 2019 (is this not the highest possible outcome obi is "wishing" for).

What is now the decider?

The North as usual, with what buhari is doing to tinubu now and the tears from ganduje, etc that tinubu is hoping on, it is safe to say tinubu would be finished up north by atiku

If you say kwanwanso would split atiku vote then ask yourself how important was his vote to atiku when he supported in 2019, apart from Kano, atiku would win him well all over north

North is smart, forget buhari winning atiku, when in power they try to finish one line first before going for another of theirs

Where tinubu is missing it?

Tinubu is only hoping on the block fanatic apc supporters many of whom are buhari group, but he doesn't realize their fanatism to apc whether good or bad is their loyalty to north.

And this fantism favor them to switch parties depending on which side benefits north more, I guess tinubu already know buhari and his people are working against him.

The fanatism tinubu gets in south west apc, he can't get in north because Yoruba apc supporters have no other party to run to but north does

Obi in Southwest

Expect tinubu to pick the usual 50% of apc here, this time he would make it 55%-60% because a son is contesting.

It's the reality of tribal politics in SW, you either believe or not but you have seen his last Oyo reception

So tinubu would clear all SW states, the hope of obident is that SW would give LP votes but these so called SW Christian's and liberals are already the PDP voting block that gets 40/45%

The yorubas in apc (acn) seem to see support for apc as support for their political survival, and reality is they have nowhere else to go.

So it's a case of how much can obi take of 45% which PDP would still take inside, either way obi game is over if it's just SE/SS that he aims for win.

Let me not even go into wike, because apc is already taboo in SS/SE, do you think like his other colleagues he would have problem marketing atiku which has been done before

Igbo don suffer

After this election this ekpa they now hate would become their God

Biafra or death

CilicMarin:
Just spent my 5K old notes now...The women were even happy to receive it.

Na ibadan that one dey happen

For north and the rest south nobody dey disobey buhari order

It's like tinubu go use that old naira for him own republic

Who is afraid

Let every region vote their own, na already tribal election

Spend the notes

Who dey buy am?

Asiwaju go sell me tin milk?

Thanksful:
Which structure? If labor is seen as not having structure, it's an insult on structure to say this party (wetin be im name again) has collapse it's structure somewhere.

Nonsense

These are all statement of one Accord fusion when north want to play political ball

The national chairman of APM, Yusuf Dantalle

By the time the north finish with what they are cooking for tinubu he would be wishing why he didn't support osinbajo as compromise with buhari

Jungle go mature soon

We are waiting for the big one by kwanwanso

Ttalk:
Peter Obi's failure is better than Atiku's success, the only thing you can compare with Atiku is the Antichrist, ask Adamawa people, they know him more than you do

lol, see lamba

Atiku is Antichrist then obi his boy na him false prophet 🥱

Nothing when una no dey talk

Lies, buhari cannot issue statement in a few for cbn to change same week

Ttalk:
You don't even know how yo campaign, Atiku, the Caro White ambassador was among the people that brought Buhari to power, Atiku stole SE mandate after spending 3 years with olosho in Dubai, he now remember Nigeria still exist in the map of the world.

Your serial loser is nothing but customer dada ni

Carol white isn't a crime the last time I checked or you didn't see this in 2019 just as you defend a man talking like female

He brought buhari to power but obi almost brought same man to power in 2019

Make una learn to dey talk about substance

kokoA:
Last election I stood for him because I was tired of Buhari, this election I choose to remain neutral. Let the best man win.

you are a man indeed of character

Some called him thief when in apc and called him saint when obi became his boy, today they call him thief when obi didn't get his boyship

Tomorrow he would be saint again when obi becomes his minister of trade and brewery

Ttalk:
You are always walking against the tide

when you supported Gej 2015 and atiku 2019 and lost it wasn't walking against tide abi

Na north dey talk who get tide, and it's Atiku on everylips

Very soon the obidense crew would turn to "if obi can't have it let atiku"

All of us dey support atiku, the problem is when, do you do it now or when results don dey come

kilimanjaro:
Even Obi himself his corrupt

I don't know again o

But I know birds of a feather flock together, so obi can not be saint without flowing with his mentor saint atiku

I don't believe all these propaganda of atiku been corrupt

If he was saint obi won't be anywhere near him let alone been obi mentor

rippa:
In 20yrs time Obi will be 82yrs
Shey dem use old age swear for Nigeria presidency
Una get sense self

lol

Igbos would still vote him, they would say Biden also was old

Una don curse tinubu finish na now una wan call am elderstateman abi

everyone should go to the field, make him hold those him 60% supporters in Southwest from obi

South must be shared, and he must keep the most populus region in south from obi

Jimmythewise:
I think that Buhari's political IQ is sharp. He knows he has goofed and he decided to turn himself into a martyr. He will not be easily forgotten and his sins will be forgiven.

buhari doesn't care about you, he only wanted his preferred candidate and since tinubu no gree he now wants his preferred tribal man

It's not about amending any goof he did

Lol

In your deceived mind you believe buhari policy is to bring obi

Need I remind you buhari is fulani with atiku, emefile is anioma with okowa

The two main men buhari are brothers with the two main men from PDP

Obi no get level, that's why atiku told emefile when to end it a bit

Bede2u:
saying that 90% of northerners don't have access to Internet already shows you are deceitful. There is no data that supports it.
Also buhari has won the north east and north west since 2003, how come he never became president until he won SW and north central in 2015 if the north decides alone?

buhari has never won the north east let alone north west

He has been restricted to Anpp states like bauchi, yobe, borno and gets fringe of votes from general north

But block votes where won by PDP until 2015, that is why I laugh at you guys saying north would share votes

Even if they divide votes into two, it's still enough to cover SE/SS

How many northerners are on nairaland, Facebook etc compared to Southerners and their national numbers

How many northerners in your street do you know with access to Internet, it's a better analysis than anap abi anup which only them know how they measure it

Alezy:
First of all, the polls where not conducted online.

the question is how many people did you meet cos even Nigeria census can't reach the majority and where did you carry it out, cos the 2019 own of buhari been preferred generally bursted everything

Secondly, the igbos propaganda as you call it, is not without a certain tribe or region. Look at PO, he isn't telling you that igbos alone would vote for him. I can tell you with a free and fair election, more Yoruba's will vote PO than more Yoruba's voted GEJ. We all know igbos didn't even vote Buhari.

it remains the Igbo propaganda, because they where the ones who campaigned for atiku in 2019 because of obi, nobody outside igboland gave a bleep about him till this propaganda, there has been free and fair election since and Lagos etc are yet to leave tinubu hands

Tell yourself the truth.
In the far North....Atiku will win (just that kwankwaso would share his votes) Tinubu will come second and obi might just get 25% in some states (based on the igbo and christain population)

obi doesn't even believe he would see 25% on far north, there is a reason he is going all Christian approach to maximize Christian votes

Are you even sure kwanwanso won't step down before next week, look what buhari is doing to tinubu, it's one north

In the West....Tinubu will win. But he has a serious battle to do with Obi. Obi will surly get more than the 25% needed in major states. Atiku has no grounds here.

fair enough to reality, but don't say atiku have no ground here, cos PDP does as a party, obi would still face issues here because he is only looking at taking PDP traditional votes as the ardent apc voters are already fixed at tinubu

The so called undecided, liberal, Christian's are still PDP traditional block, he would get some but party faithful ardent won't follow

Hence obi is helping tinubu in the sw, I can see why you said 25% cos obi and atiku would battle for that 40%

In the SS/SE....Obi will win clearly ( Atiku might have his required 25% from very few states here in the SS but not the SE. Tinubu has absolutely no grounds here.

not might, atiku would get his mandatory 25% here in SE because the PDP structure is there, senators across PDP would be voting same day so they would mobilize their support on a streak, not many would adhere but the much that would do would solidify atiku 25% above

In SS you would be shocked Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Edo PDP would win one or two states here, the Governors are fully on ground, voting pattern here is very strong, and if there is an upset I can assure you no way PDP is getting less than 45% which makes it a worthless win for obi in SS

The deciding factor of this election would be the Middle belt which is the NC. The Kogi, Benue, Taraba, Abuja, Jos etc. This would be a serious battle because they all will get votes here no doubt. But OBI has upper hand here now. States like Abuja, Benue and Plateau are now over 75% for him. This is why they project his chances higher

If you know middle belt is a free for all why then have your likes added it as a region for obi?

Taraba is northeast, they are ardent followers of atiku because he highest employer of labour here, remember mama taraba resigned her minister appointment with buhari to support atiku,

Abuja benue and plateau can never give anyone 75% go and check the voting history, since 2015 it's always split

45%/55%, With PDP on the ballot obi won't even see 60% here because he is banking on traditional PDP voting block, just like SW some would come to him that are taken away with his stories, but not less than half of the same block would remain for PDP

Apc already have ardent supporters that would vote them here just like SW whether person is dieing or not is not their concern

So it's really a stalemate in Abuja, benue, plataue but in kwara, Nassarawa, kogi, Niger while apc and PDP are sharing states here LP would be absent

So PDP has a better ratio in fighting with LP and Apc at different battleground

He has already

Tinubu is not looking to buy votes in igboland or SS

It's the north, let's now see how northerners would leave theirs for him with his baggages

fiizznation:
The Genesis of this unnecessary hardship on the masses was just because the buhari preferred/anointed candidate didn't win the APC presidential ticket. Whatever disagreement you guys have with one another shouldn't be unleashed on innocent Nigerians.

The cashless policy has crumbled many businesses and the president is adamantly stubborn to reverse the policy. Should over 200million nigerians suffer because you feel some people are going to use illicit money to buy votes?

tinubu humiliated buhari from choosing his successor

Buhari chilled because it's better his brother even gets it

Triplerg:
The dynamics of the game have changed. The people are wiser now and will vote based on candidate's credibility. Take it to the bank

what basis changed

Igbos supported atiku in 2019 because there son was on ticket, today igbos are supporting obi because he is the ticket

Yorubas are doing same for tinubu because he is there son and so is the north for atiku

I don't see any change in basics except the same old repacked lies tied under wanting something different

Praktikals:
How can you say u re educated and make such laughable claims?

but when you claim 90% igbos are billionaires in nnewi it's not laughable abi?

Anyway this is the reality, you can even start sampling from nairaland before checking those around you

Triplerg:
You wrote all these because the polls didn't favour your candidate? The north can't decide who wins this election because they will not give any candidate block vote like they did in 2015 and 2019

you wrote this because the reality is not inline with what you want to hear

North has a voting block pattern but it's your wishes that would make the pattern change abi

Gej got block votes ahead of buhari in 2011, even when buhari was getting good numbers, the block votes split in two would still be enough to disturb what is coming from two regions outside north

enonche85:
Same way they didn't have access to Internet when Goodluck won his first tenure.

but they where with Gej offline

In 2023 do they know Adaobi, it's atiku and kwanwanso over there

That's why the poll is trash

You can tell me obi would win SE, I would believe because that's the position of average Igbo man, same way it is for atiku in north

PeterObi4LP:
We don't care. Those 90% Northerners vote will be divided with Atiku, Kwankwaso, Obi and Tinubu. No bloc vote or inheritance of 12M voters to any of them.

Nigerians vote wisely. Vote Obi

Are you the one dividing it?

The north is politically advanced than you, can you not see what buhari is doing to tinubu

Obi have no vote in the north that's why he is selling himself more to Christian's based in south, kwanwanso is fulani they know how to do their thing

Lol

How would tinubu now win north over their son if no money to share

VERDA:
What is this one saying, the polls correctly predicted buhari's win in 2019,despite no public opinion fancing Buhari like you stated.

did you hear where i said no public opinion fancied buhari

Not online or offline

That 2019 screenshot is fake for them to save face, rushly done apart from the others to give a sense of consistentcy

Tinubu is in soup

If he doesn't share money like rice, how would abokis now leave atiku for him when nothing to excite them

Rgade:
I don’t know about the authenticity of the chart. But they did put Buhari ahead.

bro, don't be deceived by those guys

You can very much book a space in article to further edit and backdate it to your taste to appear consistent

It's very simple, the summary is about public opinion and no public opinion gave buhari a better rating than atiku unless we are going back to the north decides who is president since 2011