₦airaland Forum

Cc @Apc fan club, berem,whatlyf,mynd44,egift,whatlyf, apparently APC's prime star is,lost

SenseiX: Once Hassan Tukur is on something, know that GEJ really wants that thing, he and Oronto Douglas are Jonathan most trusted aides, GEJ must really want Ribadu

FFK,Abati and Akin Osuntokun , close personal friends of Ribadu are leading the lobby, PDP is his most realistic chance to getting the ticket

As preparation for the forthcoming governorship election in Adamawa intensifies, the two major political parties – the Peoples Democratic Party [PDP], and the All Progressives Congress [APC] – are wooing a former Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission [EFCC,] Nuhu Ribadu, to run for governor on their platforms.

Although Mr. Ribadu is a member of the APC, PREMIUM TIMES learnt that the ruling PDP and some interest groups in his native Adamawa state have stepped up lobby to win the former anti-graft chief over to the ruling party.

]This newspaper learnt authoritatively that President Goodluck Jonathan, through one of his closest aides, Hassan Tukur, has made overtures to Mr. Ribadu to cross over to the ruling party.

The National Chairman of the party, Ahmed Muazu, as well as a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Aliyu Modibbo, who are long-time friends of the former EFCC chairman, are also said to be pestering Mr. Ribadu to dump the APC.

Top PDP sources also told this newspaper that the Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala; a former Managing Director of the News Agency of Nigeria, Akin Osuntokun; and a former Minister of Aviation, Femi Fani-Kayode (who recently defected to the ruling party) might also be enlisted to pressure the anti-corruption activist to join the PDP.]

Elections will be held in Mr. Ribadu’s Adamawa State in about three months following the impeachment of former Governor Murtala Nyako by the state assembly.

The lawmakers accuse him of financial mismanagement and gross misconduct, allegations the impeached governor rejected.

Almost immediately after Mr. Nyako’s impeachment, the fortunes of the APC nosedived dramatically in the state. Virtually all elected and appointed officials in the state, who had joined the former governor to defect to the opposition party last year, returned to the PDP.

From commissioners to local government chairmen and to councillors, almost all officials have pledged loyalty to Acting Governor Umaru Fintiri while also announcing their defection to the PDP.

[b]Impeachment fallout, frustrations

Mr. Ribadu is yet to comment on the speculation that he might soon switch to the PDP. One of his aides said he is still consulting on the matter.

But analysts say it should not be entirely surprising if the anti-corruption activist eventually dumped his party and accepted the invitation of the ruling party.

Party insiders say the former presidential candidate has had a longstanding frustration with his party and the way it is run.

Mr. Ribadu was one of the few APC chieftains who stood by Mr. Nyako during his impeachment travails.

An associate of the former EFCC chairman said after the embattled Adamawa governor was removed, Mr. Ribadu complained to close friends that Mr. Nyako fell because the APC national leadership did not rally round him strongly enough.

“Ribadu worked so hard and nearly saved the former governor because he was able to convince some members of the state Assembly to withdraw their support for the impeachment,” the associate said. “ If he had gotten the support of the national leadership of the party, all they needed was one more member and the impeachment would have collapsed.”

The associate, who asked not be named so as not to anger Mr. Ribadu for disclosing details of private conversations, said the former ACN presidential candidate complained that the APC behaved like a party that does not care about its members in trouble.

The source said at that point, Mr. Ribadu became deeply frustrated at the development in Adamawa that he contemplated withdrawing from politics entirely.

His commitment to the APC was shaken, the associate said.[b][/b]

Mr. Nyako now out of the way, Mr. Ribadu became the most formidable candidate the APC can present in the forthcoming governorship election in the state, but various sources suggested former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is a leader of the party in the state, is not a fan of the former EFCC chairman and that both men are finding it difficult working together.

“As you know Ribadu once wrote a report indicting Turaki for corruption,” an official of the Adamawa State chapter of the APC told this newspaper. “Both men have yet to forget that episode and it is unlikely Ribadu will be comfortable working with the former VP in the same party.”

Another factor that may influence Mr. Ribadu’s decision on whether to heed the PDP’s call or not is the way the APC is run.
Another factor that may influence Mr. Ribadu’s decision on whether to heed the PDP’s call or not is the way the APC is run.

Associates of Mr. Ribadu said the politician is unhappy by the APC’s lack of ability to resolve the conflicts within its fold and the lack of internal democracy in the party.

The EFCC chairman is also said to be bitter that some leading chieftains of the party are increasingly being sidelined in the race for the presidential ticket of the party.

“Ribadu would have preferred an opportunity to contest the presidential ticket in a free and fair primary,” another associate of the politician said. “ But as it is now, the leadership of the APC has made its 2015 presidential direction clear to potential candidates, with Mr. Ribadu standing no chance.

“People always talk about integrity as the reason why he should not join the PDP, but what has that earned him in the APC? Despite his popular appeal, the leaders have not given him his deserved place,” he said.

Mr. Ribadu, PREMIUM TIMES gathered, has for long refused overtures from the PDP.

However, his loyalists believe the former presidential candidate “ has gained nothing for his loyalty.

“Even people he supported for party leadership in both Adamawa and national level were rejected by some powerful forces, in favour of their cronies.

“If you look at it, all this while there have been flying allegations about how some prominent APC leaders sold him out in the then ACN but he has always dismissed the allegations as a mark of respect to them,” the source added.

The Elders’ Factor



Another side to the unfolding drama is what a source described as “overwhelming pressure from some notable individuals and elites from Adamawa and beyond.”

“Some of these individuals, who have been agitating for Mr. Ribadu to jettison his presidential ambition and vie for Adamawa governorship instead, have now added a caveat to their pledge of support by asking him to declare under the PDP which they see as a more formidable platform in the current equation,” he said.

Mr. Ribadu consulting

When contacted, Mr. Ribadu’s media aide, Abdulaziz Abdulaziz, admitted that the former EFCC chairman is under intense pressure from different quarters.

“Consultations are still on and I believe he will make public his stance at the appropriate time. We should first tarry a while to reach the bridge before crossing it.

“Remember that he is yet to personally declare his interest in the governorship race, more so of a platform. In addition he has an offer from an international organisation which he is also looking at.

“But in all these, his watchword is how he can be of use to his people and his country.”

The secretary of the PDP in Adamawa State, A.T. Shehu, said the party would welcome Mr. Ribadu into its fold.

“We have not received any communication to that effect but the news of a personality like Nuhu Ribadu is a plus to any party.

“No right thinking party will turn down the request of Nuhu Ribadu to join the party. He has made name for himself. He was a Presidential aspirant, one-time EFCC boss who did his job with great determination and commitment.

“Certainly no party will close its door to such a man,” he said.

The secretary however said as a party that respects its constitution and manifesto, Mr. Ribadu would not be given preferential treatment.

“That Nuhu Ribadu has made name does not give him the automatic ticket to be the party’s flag bearer. Those of us in the party that have shown interest to vie for the governorship ticket are equally very good materials”.

Also, the spokesperson of the APC in the state, Phinas Padio, said the defection of politicians from one party to another is normal, adding however, that Mr. Ribadu remained a member of the APC.

“As far as we are concern, news of the defection of Mallam Nuhu Ribadu remains a rumour. He has not communicated his wish to leave the party to anyone here,” he said.

http://m.premiumtimesng.com/news/165959-adamawa-election-inside-the-pdps-big-scramble-for-ribadu.html

SenseiX: It was somewhat disjointed, did they cut out scenes..........I'll give it a 4 on a 10 scale......maybe if I'd read the book before watching, it would have been worth it, Also Northerners were villified a lot in the movie, it could stir up anti north sentiments

I guess I saw why the censors board was reluctant to approve it, I am Igbo and it brought up civil war issues that are bound to make one very passionate........i was angry at some point at northerners, all in all though I still think they tried but as the poster above you said, for all the hype it was a disappointing.
Also some unnecessary sex scenes..

This is no news, its pretty clear

Even with the Villa's backing as speculated, it would take a lot to defeat Marwa and Awwal Tukur, Adamawa is PDP's to lose anyway, imagine a Ribadu in Adamawa,Agbaje In Lagos,Dr Alex Otti in Abia, Dr Okowa in Delta, Mohammed Abacha in Kano, Benkibo Dagogo Jack in Rivers, PDP guber champions will triumph

Former Executive Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, may join the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to contest the governorship election in Adamawa State, it has been learnt.

The decision followed intense pressure major stakeholders put on him to accept the party’s ticket.

Also, some extended family members, relations and associates have been asking Ribadu to use PDP as a platform to realise his governorship ambition.

Adamawa State youths, under the aegis of Concerned Youth for Good Governance, mounted pressure on Ribadu yesterday to defect to PDP for the governorship election.

A source said relations, associates and friends have been mounting pressure on Ribadu in the last two weeks to join the PDP for the governorship race.

It was gathered that some of those solicited by the PDP leadership to convince Ribadu had earned the confidence of the former EFCC chief over the years.

Some of the stakeholders were said to be so desperate that they invoked God’s name to pressurise Ribadu.

The source said: “From the look of things, Mallam Ribadu may bow to pressure to join the PDP. His inevitable choice is informed by a bigger picture of saving Adamawa State from underdevelopment.

“The PDP may appear a bitter pill to swallow but the exit of ex-Governor Murtala Nyako has weakened the All Progressives Congress (APC), with most members defecting to PDP.

“If Nyako had been around, the APC governorship ticket would have been automatic for Ribadu. But the situation in APC in Adamawa State now is that former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar is now firmly in control of the party’s structure in the state. Given their antecedents, there is no way Atiku will allow Ribadu to be APC’s governorship candidate.

“Even if Atiku is forced to concede the APC ticket to Ribadu, he will win, but PDP will control the House of Assembly. We will then have a replica of the situation in Nasarawa State where Governor Umaru Tanko Al-Makura is at the mercy of the lawmakers.

“All these calculations make Ribadu’s defection to PDP a fait accompli. He is just waiting for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to issue guidelines.”

Also, youths in Adamawa State, under the aegis of Concerned Youth for Good Governance, yesterday mounted pressure on Ribadu to defect to the PDP for the governorship election.

The youths spoke at a rally and a media briefing at Lelewa Hotel in Yola, the state capital. The briefing was addressed by their chairman, Mallam Isa Toungo.

The youth leader urged the stakeholders to save Adamawa State from bad governance by giving Ribadu a chance to lead the state on the platform of the PDP.

He said: “We call on all well-meaning citizens of Adamawa State to support our crusade of saving the state from collapse.

“In a nutshell, the content of this initiative is to strengthen our corporate existence as a people of the state with historical background living together for over 200 years.

“As of now, part of the strategies to bring sanity into the state is closely related to bringing in a well-deserved person as its chief executive to steer the state out of the present mess.

“That personality should be a man of excellent moral background, proper orientation, integrity, unimpeachable character and with a good track record of service. These should be the qualities that would determine the future leadership of our state.

“It is in the light of the afore mentioned reasons and considering our present political and economic circumstance in the state that we call on Mallam Ribadu to come out and salvage our situation by agreeing to join the PDP and contest the governorship election.

“As we call stakeholders of the ruling PDP in the state, we assure him of our support and urge him to see all political parties in Nigeria as the same. So, a call to join the largest political party in Africa to bring the desired positive change to the people of Adamawa State has become necessary.

“This is more so because in the Nigerian political system, parties are only used as platforms for electoral purposes, not for ideological difference.”

Toungo also explained why Adamawa youths chose Ribadu for the PDP.
http://thenationonlineng.net/new/adamawa-ribadu-may-bow-to-pressure-to-join-pdp/

mstik: pics before I comment.....
but since there are no pics, I can't comment

Trying to take pics near the president could get you shot or at least maimed.
@op its his right to pick his guards, you are right about Gen Azazi bringing em in after police HQ blasts

Thats how politics should be played with decency, Kudos to GEJ

7 months more

.

Clerverly: Mumu! Do you think is Akwa state?

See, Kaduna is always a nail biter between the PDP and whichever party buhari supports ANPp,CPC and now APC, PDP has always had a slight edge because they usually sweep Southern Kaduna and share the northern kaduna votes with the opposition especially now that the current gov is from Zaria, Buhari's popularity might aid nasir but he is an upstart as far as KD politics is, if a stronger Haruna Saed still narrowly lost to ca Christian yakowa despite buhari's popularity, what guarantees you that Abuja boy elrufai can upstage incumbent Zazzau boy Yero

Agbaje is the default PDP candidate, he had already been endorsed when GEJ met him last year at the State House Marina, Obanikoro was nominated a minister as compensation.

My indefatigable President, ride on sir, those who are with you are more than those against you.

E

Instructive to note that Nekeassov is a very close Putin ally, there's a bigger picture to all this we are not seeing

Kremlin insiders predict more Western aid and possibly intervention for Nigeria as lessons from Iraq begin to sink in.





The traditional view in the Kremlin on any conflict in different parts of the world, be it social unrest, a popular uprising, an overthrow of government or a rise in terrorist activity, has always come down to one question: What's in it for the Yanks? Or, if we put it in the language of the statements that have been coming from Moscow in the past several months over Ukraine: What's in it for our American partners?

The basic thinking behind this is that Washington looks at the whole world as its backyard and pursues its agendas with remarkable determination and ruthlessness, especially when it comes to its economic and financial interests, including energy supply. As in, how this or that country is positioned strategically, whether it has substantial oil and gas and other resources, has important pipelines running through it or lies along major sea routes.

The old communist concept of rushing in to make life difficult for the US whenever a crisis breaks out has dissipated now, mostly due to lack of money and military muscle. But as the civil war in Syria has demonstrated, when Russia does get involved, things get done.

When it comes to the current turmoil in Nigeria and the dramatic rise of the threat from the armed group Boko Haram, the question, "What's in it for our American partners?" has not yet provided any real answers for the Kremlin. In fact, the view there is that had US First Lady Michelle Obama not lent her support to the very high profile "Bring Our Girls Back" hashtag campaign after Boko Haram kidnapped more than 200 schoolgirls in the province of Borno, the US, and the West, would have probably remained indifferent to the crisis in Nigeria.

Rise of Boko Haram


Boko Haram, which had emerged initially as a non-violent movement that promoted Islamic values and rejected western culture and its "decadence", turned to violence in 2009, and since 2010 has been carrying regular attacks, rapidly growing in numbers as a result of a recruitment campaign, both in Nigeria and beyond.



What adds to the confusion, from the point of view of Russian officials, is that Boko Haram, which is based in the north of Nigeria, is actually fighting for control of the area that has no oil reserves.

Nigeria is the biggest oil producer in all of Africa and a big exporter of oil to the US. Incidentally, Russia's trade at the moment with Nigeria amounts to only around $300m a year, which pales in significance compared to other major players. But the thinking in Moscow is that this situation has to change if Russia is to make a return to Africa.

The interesting angle on the crisis in Nigeria is that it is seen in Moscow as political conflict rather than a religious one, even though the country is equally split between Muslims and Christians. As the thinking in Moscow goes, if it was a classic "religious war", then Boko Haram would not have been indiscriminate in murdering both Muslims and Christians.

Boko Haram fighters are now taking over entire villages in the north, looting and torching them to the ground, killing dozens of people, and then disappearing without trace. The group has mastered the techniques of mobile guerrilla warfare, making it extremely difficult for the Nigerian army to track down its units. Some of the attacks bear the hallmarks of publicity stunts carried out in broad daylight. As a result, a feeling of total chaos is created, with the opposition blaming the government of President Goodluck Jonathan for its inability to prevent the carnage.

[b]Opposition benefits


After every attack, everyone is reminded that there is still no trace of the over 200 Chibok schoolgirls, although recently, bizarre reports have surfaced that 60 of them have supposedly managed to escape while the terrorists were looking the other way.

Nevertheless, the kidnapping on such a vast scale was obviously intended as a blow to Jonathan's regime first and foremost, because selling the girls for around $20 each was not really going to enrich Boko Haram. So this was more of a slap on the face of the government in power that could only benefit the opposition.





In politics, anything that happens in a year leading to a big election should be always treated as a build up to that election.

And in Nigeria, the next presidential election is going to take place in February 2015, with the opposition having a mountain to climb, considering that the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) got a substantial majority at the polls in 2011. The PDP politicians have been accusing the opposition, the All People's Congress (APC) of having links with Boko Haram, but the opposition has been strenuously denying it.


Jonathan may be wary of being seen to play politics, but that boat has already sailed. Who knows, an investigation may reveal a far more complex web of deceit that involves the APC and some members of Jonathan's government. [/b]


According to Russian experts, the recent upsurge in Boko Haram violence and the readiness to operate in broad daylight and take on the army and the police proves that the group has been getting some training and advice from outside. Some reports have linked the group with terrorist networks across Africa and the Middle East like al-Shabab, al-Qaeda and Ansar al-Sharia when it comes to combat training, funding and the exchange of military hardware and weaponry.

The one conclusion that the Russian experts have drawn is that the US and their western allies have missed the growth of extremist groups, which has already manifested itself in Iraq with large parts of it now controlled by the Islamic State group, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

Disastrous oversight


How is it possible for US military and intelligence sources on the ground, both in Iraq and Syria, to have missed the Islamic State group amassing its forces and invading Iraq? It is anyone's guess. But it's a disastrous oversight by any standard. The same applies to Nigeria, with the US and other western nations having woken up to the reality of the Boko Haram threat only when the situation started to spin out of control. All things considered, Jonathan's regime is still a better option than the coalition of the Muslim extremists that is shaping up now with an aim to win next year's elections.

Russian military analysts predict a rise in violence in Nigeria leading up to the presidential election next year. Some even claim that increased international aid, perhaps even an intervention, may be on the cards as the lessons of Iraq are starting to sink in, both in western and African capitals. As one Russian official told me, "Losing Nigeria to Muslim fundamentalists is simply a no go, whichever way you look at it. What is happening now in Iraq has been a rude wake-up call for Washington."

Some experts fear that Jonathan may have to widen the state of emergency in the north and even postpone the elections next year, if the situation does not improve. It is worth remembering that the leading APC candidate, Mahammadu Buhari, has been accused of inciting a violent uprising after losing the 2011 presidential election, resulting in nearly 1,000 deaths. Next year, some fear, this could be even worse.

Wake up call or not, if the West and African countries don't take drastic steps to reign in Boko Haram and its backers, both in Nigeria and beyond, we might see the recently crowned "biggest economy in Africa" thrown into total disarray.

Alexander Nekrassov is a former presidential and Kremlin adviser
http://m.aljazeera.com/story/201471564859549939

Latest Wednesday next week, Admiral Murtala Nyako should have been removed as governor and should be cooling his heels in SSS underground cells at Yellow House Abuja preparing to face treason charges

The panel ignored the directive of the state government which had on Sunday declared Monday and Tuesday as public holidays.

——————————-

The seven-member investigative panel constituted by the acting Chief Judge of Adamawa State, Ambrose Mammadi, to investigate allegations of gross misconduct by Governor Murtala Nyako, commenced sitting on Monday.

The panel ignored the directive of the state government which had on Sunday declared Monday and Tuesday as public holidays.

Mr. Nyako had declared the holiday to allow citizens pray for peace in the state, but critics said it was aimed at stopping Mr. Mammadi from inaugurating the panel he appointed last Friday.

Mr. Mammadi’s tenure as chief judge ends on Monday, while the panel was expected to be inaugurated on Monday. No public inauguration was done.

Speaking to journalists on Monday, the Registrar of the State High Court, Abubakar Babayola, said the inauguration of the committee is a mere ceremony and not a constitutional requirement.

Mr. Babayola signed the Friday statement, on behalf of the acting Chief Judge, announcing the composition of the committee.

“The Hon. Acting Chief Judge Hon. Justice Ambrose D. Mammadi by the powers vested in him under Section 185(5) of the 1999 constitution as (amended) has approved the appointment of seven (7) Man Panel to investigate allegations of Gross Misconduct of the Executive Governor of Adamawa State Admiral Murtala Nyako and the Deputy Governor of Adamawa State Mr. Bala Ngilari,” the registrar had said.

The committee is chaired by Buba Kaimaga from Mubi Northern Zone.

The other members are Laraba Hassan, Michika Northern Zone; Njidda Kito, Song Central Zone; Joshua Abu, Hong Central Zone; Binanu Esthon, Guyuk Southern Zone; Sa’ad Lawan, Mayo-Belwa, Southern Zone; and Esthon Gapsiso, Genye Southern Zone.

The registrar had said the committee members would be sworn-in at a later, unannounced date.

However, as at 3:00 p.m. on Monday, the committee was sitting amidst tight security at J & J Holiday Villa located at Atirwucha close in Karewa GRA, Yola.

It is not clear if Messrs. Nyako and his deputy, Bala Ngilari, will appear before the committee to clear themselves of the allegations.

Twenty of the 25 lawmakers in the state had, as part of the impeachment proceedings, asked the chief judge to set up the committee

http://m.premiumtimesng.com/news/164519-breaking-nyako-impeachment-investigative-panel-begins-sitting.html

So the arrogant coward could apologize, sometimes I think Gej is to lenient with his opponents

After seeing the thread on fp about patrick utomi I realize so many are misinformed and have no idea about delta politics, utomi is obviously a fabulous candidate but he stands no chance whatsoever, delta is PDP and PDP is delta...fellow deltans,let's reinvigorate this thread and brainstorm on the future of our state

papparatzzi2013: Belgore is nobody in Kwara state politics. He cannot withstand the sarakis machinery.

The people you also mentioned can also not withstand the machinery of those generals -- combo of IBB/OBJ/Danjuma/Abdusalam

Kwara 2011 results PDP(Saraki)-254, 969 ,A.CN(Belgore)-152, 580, ACPN(gbemi saraki)-72,
456
Note that Gbemi Saraki and Belgore along with currently serving senator Simeon Ajibola will be in the PDP together and their combined votes nearly equals that of Saraki's machinery, plus this time Saraki will be stripped of the usual support from the police and other FG agencies which will be switched to Belgore and Gbemi, Watch Out, Gej will name Gbemi a minister next year , so kwara will be 50-50, GEJ's ministerial recomposition next year will bring in certain heavyweights

dayokanu: This was what i saw somewhere. Not sure of the validity


In 2007: Fashola (AC) - 828,484 Obanikoro (PDP) - 389,088; Agbaje (DPA) - 114,557 Pedro (LP) - 29,826

Hmmm,if true I take back my earlier assertion then, his votes were still sizeable tho, NB Jide Obanikoro(Koro's son' was the real winner of the Obalende LGA polls in 2011 tho )

cramjones: Presidency "a bit too much", I think you should tell the PDP that if they field Jonathan as a candidate. that would be a bit too much for the PDP. You think the drama in the PDP is over? Wait and see 2014! PDP is ruined and can't win the presidential election as it is now, talk more of what will befall it in 2014. Why is it that all of a sudden PDP is scared of Saharareporters and wants to shut it down? Just wait and see the things that would be revealed in 2014. PDP is broken. More house members will defect...All I can tell you is sit back and watch the political drama in the coming year, before you even hint at making any uninformed conclusion!

The APC overestimates the significance of the decamped govs, Of these 5 states, only Kwara was a real loss for GEJ and that can be recouped if Dele Belgore decamps to the PDP, in NASS only 37 members eventually crossed over , Tambuwal and a minute no will join, in the Senate ,in reality only about 13 of the 22 senators who initially indicated interest are interested in defecting, note also that there will be a court ruling on the legality of that next year, watch out for certain court rulings next year,there's a pretty good chance Amaechi could lose his seat....in public,the PDp seems to be haemorraghing but GEJ's Pointmen, Raymond Dokpesi,Bala Muhammed, Oronto Douglas, Sambo Dasuki et al are working assiduously in the background....Underrate GEJ at your Peril, For Every Decamped state, there are people coming in, the formidable Muhammed Abacha in Kano, Aminu Wali et al, a PDP delegation met Shekaurau last week, Most adamawa politicians,most rivers politicians, Dele Belgore in kwara, its certainly not over here

dayokanu: Keep to facts I dont like lying to defend a point

Obanikoro lost all but one LGA in 2007

Koro had about 700 000 to Fashola's 1.2 million if I remember properly, that wasn't so bad, only in 2011 when PDP fielded a weak Dosunmu as Koro felt he had no chance against fashola were they thrashed

Obiagelli: this what those who haven't lived in the SW don't understand. if someone from the SW has a problem, if you take him to the church and the mosque he will follow you to both. They care less about religion.

I understand so, was born and bred in ibadan and studied at UI although I'm from the SS....I have many SW friends and my interactions,visits and understanding of SW politics are the basis for my postulations

dayokanu: The PDP of now has been decimated in the SW beyond repairs. The support of OBJ, Oyinlola etc they could count on before is now gone.

Politics is a game of numbers I told you earlier winning 100% of bayelsa is still inferior to winning 60% of Katsina

State counts I already see APC winning by adding 6 SW states to the 13 Northern ones plus Niger and Kwara.

Numbers wise I see APC winning since they control 7 of the 8 most populous states in Nigeria.

So what does Jonathan have going for it? Winning 100% of tiny states like Ebonyi, Bayelsa Abia, Cross River, Plateau cant help you because giants states like Kano, Lagos, Oyo Katsina, Bauchi, are ready to triple those Jonathan states

I respect your opinion bro..... I guess we all should watch and see how it goes, either way I believe our country will be the better for it as long as both parties eschew violence and primordial sentiments, I still remain sympathetic to GEJ's cause and feel the media has been heavily unfair to him(APC propaganda machine has been very acerbic and somewhat effective, Abati et al have not done a good job of projecting him), I believe he needs a 2nd term to consolidate on his power privatization, the battle against Boko Haram,Sure P,YOU WIN,our expanding macro economic indices, and other projects of his, I admit he has his flaws but I still believe he hasn't done badly, I hope he wins and will do all I can to help his campaign

cramjones: I am enjoying the discussions. If you have any specific question you think I have not addressed completely feel free to ask. Let this discussion continue. I applaud all who have contributed so far, irrespective of the side of the divide you belong.

Remember: If APC wins in 2015, PDP becomes a major opposition and is well capable of checkmating any excesses haven been in government for over 13 years. All APC wants is progress and a reversal of the destructive nature of the Jonathanians!

I agree that the berth of APC is indeed good for our democracy as it provides a credible alternative,however while the APC could make headway in the legislature and governorships,the presidency will be a tad bit too much, they stand a better chance in 2019. I expect Jonathan to retain the presidency, a narrow PDP Senate lead, an APC House Of Reps and equal no of governors in 2015, either way its will be good for our democracy and our leaders will be more responsive to the public

dayokanu: And you think everyone in APC is daft enough to exclude Fashola one of their strongest candidate from the ticket at the expense of losing for someone like Rochas or Amaaechi who may not even win their LGA in a presidential election.

You think no one has sense in the whole APC to see this glaring fact or what are you saying?

You are hoping they pick Rochas just the same way APC would be hoping the PDP picks Peter Obi for Vice

Lol, APC is not picking Fashola, ask any APC leader around, the party wants some form of religious balancing to avoid playing into the hands of the PdP with a muslim-muslim ticket, you should have noticed already that Fashola is barely active in APC national politics choosing instead to stay on the sidelines, rather Amaechi and Okorocha move around,making statements,projecting themselves forward, bros Fash has pretty much been out schemed in the party......Amaechi would be the likeliest VP candidate

dayokanu: Fashola was a nobody in lagos politics yet won the election, People simply voted AC the party regardless of who the flagbearer was. that was why the ticket of AC was the most bitter battle.

Without Tinubus assistance in winning the stolen mandate how would he be able to rule? Or you think Agagu would just willingly relinquish the post?

EVen when the Yorubas hated PDP they still chose Tinubus party , they had the option of Afeniferes party but went with Tinubus or why didnt they return to voting the AD instead of Tinubus AC?

Yet Koro still put up a strong performance then,he had about 40% of the cast votes then, that's the kind of ability the PDP has.......