SUBMARINE: [color=#006600][/color] So everybody who lives in these states are indigenes of the state. So fall inhabitants of Lagos are Yorubas.

dayokanu:

The PDP of now has been decimated in the SW beyond repairs. The support of OBJ, Oyinlola etc they could count on before is now gone.

Politics is a game of numbers I told you earlier winning 100% of bayelsa is still inferior to winning 60% of Katsina

State counts I already see APC winning by adding 6 SW states to the 13 Northern ones plus Niger and Kwara.

Numbers wise I see APC winning since they control 7 of the 8 most populous states in Nigeria.

So what does Jonathan have going for it? Winning 100% of tiny states like Ebonyi, Bayelsa Abia, Cross River, Plateau cant help you because giants states like Kano, Lagos, Oyo Katsina, Bauchi, are ready to triple those Jonathan states

Obiagelli:
this what those who haven't lived in the SW don't understand. if someone from the SW has a problem, if you take him to the church and the mosque he will follow you to both. They care less about religion.

Lord Varys:
I agree that the berth of APC is indeed good for our democracy as it provides a credible alternative,however while the APC could make headway in the legislature and governorships,the presidency will be a tad bit too much, they stand a better chance in 2019. I expect Jonathan to retain the presidency, a narrow PDP Senate lead, an APC House Of Reps and equal no of governors in 2015, either way its will be good for our democracy and our leaders will be more responsive to the public

dayokanu:

There was no way Williams would even defeat AC that time Williams at the peak of PDP in the SW still lost to Tinubu in 2003.

Mimiko could have won the real election but without Tinubus support he would never win his mandate. Do you know how many politicians served a stolen mandate for 8yrs?

Tinubus calculation was to remove PDP first once you deal with the giant elephant everything is little.

Mimiko cant rival Tinubu in the SW, Mimikos support is outside Yorubaland. During his campaign how many prominent Yorubas do you see with him

Before Fasholas first term as at 2007 AC already won Osun and Ekiti through the polls and that had nothing to do with Fasholas performance

dayokanu:

Bakare was not a politician and no one really cared about bakare aside from his church members Just like Fola Adeola

The followership of Fashola in the SW is one of the best next to Tinubu and not one I would expect the APC to pass up on

If Fashola isnt picked I expect an APC politician to be picked Kayode Fayemi, Adeniyi Adebayo are my top options

And with the APC backing they would still win the SW. No Yorubaman would see Fayemi on a ticket and vote a Jonathan Sambo that hold nothing for us.

One of the key points used by APC in the SW is that the current PDP doesnt care about us

cramjones: Dayokanu - He is partially right, Fashola right now is the best candidate, however, we have to find out how well it will go down with others. Knowing fully well that Nigerians care less about performance, rather majority are ethnically biased! We are not ruling out Fashola, but PDP plays ethnic cards and religious sentiments to its zenith. Let's wait and see. Fashola is a very well capable, but his support will be based on our on going research on the feasibility of his candidature and success by world class political consulting group (not mentioning the name here)

dayokanu:

Keep to facts I dont like lying to defend a point

Obanikoro lost all but one LGA in 2007

dayokanu:

And is every inhabitant of Bayelsa and Eboyi from those state?

dayokanu:

And is every inhabitant of Bayelsa and Eboyi from those state?

jmaine:

The followership of Fashola has evaporated in recent times because of Tinubu baggage.

You still base your claims on the assumption that a Yoruba man will be chosen as the VP. You are not sure yet bruv.

When you tell the people that the PDP doesn't care for them, they will simply point your rescue visit to OBJ, ATIKU et al., and also point to the notable PDP defectors and accuse you all of deceit and hypocrisy

Lord Varys:
Koro had about 700 000 to Fashola's 1.2 million if I remember properly, that wasn't so bad, only in 2011 when PDP fielded a weak Dosunmu as Koro felt he had no chance against fashola were they thrashed

dayokanu:

If I am one of the APC strategist Fashola is definitely on that ticket. fasholas name on the ticket guarantees 6 SW states confirmed.

if the northern candidate can deliver their 13 states plus the bonus APC get from the middle belt then its a cakewalk

There is no ethno religious card that would make a Yoruba man vote for an outsider against his own popular candidate. MKO was on a Moslem moslem ticket and swept all Yoruba states

I am from one of the most xtian dominated towns in the SW and we dont care who is who.
Osun with almost 50% Moslem population was ruled by a Xtian-xtian ticket when Oyinlola-Obada ruled no one shouted religion

Ondo State is about 80% xtian, MKO won almost 80% of the votes there. Abdulrahman Segun Mimiko a Moslem is the curent governor

A Yoruba man cares about his tribe before his religion.

EVery Yoruba has both religion in their family, Tinubu and fashola are married to practising xtians, Aregbesolas siblings are xtians

jmaine:

The followership of Fashola has evaporated in recent times because of Tinubu baggage.

You still base your claims on the assumption that a Yoruba man will be chosen as the VP. You are not sure yet bruv.

When you tell the people that the PDP doesn't care for them, they will simply point your rescue visit to OBJ, ATIKU et al., and also point to the notable PDP defectors and accuse you all of deceit and hypocrisy

SUBMARINE: On 2011 the Northerners thought that because they had more registered voters they will win. Little did they know that the number of non-indigenes are enough to give GEJ his 25% requirement.

Lord Varys:
Koro had about 700 000 to Fashola's 1.2 million if I remember properly, that wasn't so bad, only in 2011 when PDP fielded a weak Dosunmu as Koro felt he had no chance against fashola were they thrashed

SUBMARINE: @APC supporters The number of Igbos, SS and Northern Xtians in SW and North are enough to give GEJ sufficient votes.

dayokanu:

There was no way Williams would even defeat AC that time Williams at the peak of PDP in the SW still lost to Tinubu in 2003.

Mimiko could have won the real election but without Tinubus support he would never win his mandate. Do you know how many politicians served a stolen mandate for 8yrs?

Tinubus calculation was to remove PDP first once you deal with the giant elephant everything is little.

Mimiko cant rival Tinubu in the SW, Mimikos support is outside Yorubaland. During his campaign how many prominent Yorubas do you see with him

Before Fasholas first term as at 2007 AC already won Osun and Ekiti through the polls and that had nothing to do with Fasholas performance

papparatzzi2013:

You are underestimating north'a resolve not to allow those SS/SE that registered on their soil from voting. No one from those zones living in the north will risk their lives for GEJ. I can assure you.

For the xtian northerners. It can never amount to the required 25%.

papparatzzi2013:

You are underestimating north'a resolve not to allow those SS/SE that registered on their soil from voting. No one from those zones living in the north will risk their lives for GEJ. I can assure you.

For the xtian northerners. It can never amount to the required 25%.

cramjones:

Presidency "a bit too much", I think you should tell the PDP that if they field Jonathan as a candidate. that would be a bit too much for the PDP. You think the drama in the PDP is over? Wait and see 2014! PDP is ruined and can't win the presidential election as it is now, talk more of what will befall it in 2014. Why is it that all of a sudden PDP is scared of Saharareporters and wants to shut it down? Just wait and see the things that would be revealed in 2014. PDP is broken. More house members will defect...All I can tell you is sit back and watch the political drama in the coming year, before you even hint at making any uninformed conclusion!

jmaine:


Funsho lost marginally to Tinubu in 2003, and rumours had it that he was cheated Cos he won.

He was the Governor in waiting for 2007 before he wasted

Mimiko winning the poll was the cardinal thrust of him being a Governor . Tinubu money won't be necessary over a stolen mandate.

Mimiko power base is extending into Ekiti State gradually, and Tinubu can never challenge him in his strong hold which is Ondo .

Yes the ACN won Osun in 2007, but Ekiti was subjected to a rerun.

SUBMARINE: [color=#006600][/color]. Northern Xtians make up 30%-50% of the Northern population.

Lord Varys:
The APC overestimates the significance of the decamped govs, Of these 5 states, only Kwara was a real loss for GEJ and that can be recouped if Dele Belgore decamps to the PDP, in NASS only 37 members eventually crossed over , Tambuwal and a minute no will join, in the Senate ,in reality only about 13 of the 22 senators who initially indicated interest are interested in defecting, note also that there will be a court ruling on the legality of that next year, watch out for certain court rulings next year,there's a pretty good chance Amaechi could lose his seat....in public,the PDp seems to be haemorraghing but GEJ's Pointmen, Raymond Dokpesi,Bala Muhammed, Oronto Douglas, Sambo Dasuki et al are working assiduously in the background....Underrate GEJ at your Peril, For Every Decamped state, there are people coming in, the formidable Muhammed Abacha in Kano, Aminu Wali et al, a PDP delegation met Shekaurau last week, Most adamawa politicians,most rivers politicians, Dele Belgore in kwara, its certainly not over here

dayokanu:

This was what i saw somewhere. Not sure of the validity


In 2007: Fashola (AC) - 828,484 Obanikoro (PDP) - 389,088; Agbaje (DPA) - 114,557 Pedro (LP) - 29,826

dayokanu:

When Fashola was at his peak support was Tinubu baggage not there? When ACN won Osun and Ekiti was Tinubu baggage not there? When ACN won Oyo and Ogun was Tinubu baggage not there?

Its the non Yorubas that care more about The so called Tinbu baggage. Tinubu baggage, hasnt stopped his party for almost 16yrs in Lagos, they have even added 4 more states to it. Yet all we hear is Tinubu baggage , Alphabeta,

papparatzzi2013:

That should tell you that SW ain't about party or religion. It is strictly performance.

The only party in SW presently is still there because of performance and not because they are jus bearing APC or Tinubu.

APC will use their performance in SW to lock down SW votes and use GEJ below par performance and open encouragement of corruption as propaganda against him.

jmaine:

The followership of Fashola has evaporated in recent times because of Tinubu baggage.

SUBMARINE: [color=#006600][/color]. Northern Xtians make up 30%-50% of the Northern population.

papparatzzi2013:

Belgore is nobody in Kwara state politics. He cannot withstand the sarakis machinery.

The people you also mentioned can also not withstand the machinery of those generals -- combo of IBB/OBJ/Danjuma/Abdusalam