₦airaland Forum

Militant leader Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, has taken over the structure of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Delta state, and his candidate is set to be named the running mate of Ifeanyi Okowa, the party’s governorship candidate. According to a high-ranking member of the party, the influence of Tompolo, who recently acquired seven warships from Norway, has grown to the extent that “he determines who ends up becoming what” in the state chapter of the party. “Everyone is afraid of him. He is fully in control and dictates what happens here in Delta,” the source, who did not want to be named, said. “He is fond of intimidating those who are not in his good books. Recently, the names of some people who won the primary election for the state and national assembly were replaced on his orders. “He uses his influence in Abuja to fight those who are not in his camp. There is so much confusion in Delta right now. Some people who won the party’s ticket would not return. I can confirm to you that the current deputy speaker of the Delta state house of assembly, in the person of Basil Ganagana would not return to the house even though he won the primaries.” The source further alleged that not even Emmanuel Uduaghan, governor of the state, can challenge the might of Tompolo. He added that Okowa beat Tony Obuh, the preferred candidate of Uduaghan, to the state governorship ticket due to the influence of Tompolo. In another instance, he continued, Kingsley Otuaro, a commissioner at the Delta State Oil Producing Areas Development Commission (DESOPADEC) who is also loyal to Tompolo, would emerge as the deputy governorship candidate of the party ahead of the forthcoming election. “As I speak to you now, everything has been put in place to name Tompolo’s candidate as the running mate of Okowa. This is no secret; it is a well-known fact but everybody is afraid to talk,” the source said. “Do you think it is ordinary that Uduaghan lost in two ways? He dropped his senatorial bid for James Manager and still could not get his candidate to replace him. We all know the reason but who would talk? “The governor is Itsekiri and Tompolo is from Gbaramatu kingdom, the Ijaws, so that factor alone is causing problems between them.” Recently, Lagos lawyer, Festus Keyamo was involved in a dispute with Tompolo over the replacement of Weyinmi Omadeli, the PDP chairmanship candidate in Warri south-west local government with George Ekpemupolo, Tompolo’s younger brother. The brother is the current chairman of the local government. Some days after Keyamo made the issue public, the lawyer raised an alarm that the militant leader had threatened to kill him, and he petitioned Suleiman Abba, the inspector general of police, over alleged death threat. Tompolo, a former commander of Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) once declared “the most wanted man in Nigeria” in 2009 during the administration of late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, is known to be a staunch ally of President Goodluck Jonathan.

Read more at: http://www.thecable.ng/tompolo-pick-deltas-deputy-governor | TheCable

It was, however, palpable that there were some irreconcilable differences between Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan and Okowa which only the two personalities can explain.   While Uduaghan stood wholeheartedly for a Delta North successor, his mind was not on Okowa and his body language pointed to the retired permanent secretary, Mr. Anthony Obuh. Until the last minute swing by his political machinery, Obuh was generally perceived as the man to beat in the contest.
Okowa or nobody else
Those who served with Okowa in the Ibori government were said to have insisted on Okowa forging ahead a development that pushed those opposed to him to the wall, and brought up the idea of using Edevbie to stop him through the Urhobo Progress Union, UPU.
UPU’s debacle

•Senator Ifeanyi Okowa flanked by his wife and Professor Sam Oyobvbaire during his governorship declaration in Asaba, Delta State.
The UPU assumed that its threat to switch the much trumpeted 800,000 Urhobo votes against President Jonathan was what made President Jonathan to order Governor Uduaghan to support its candidate, Edevbie, but it probably read the handwriting on the wall wrongly. The strings were from no other person than their son, Chief Ibori, who contended that the Edevbie project would not fly.
Comrade Paul Bebenimibo, a senior adviser to ex-militant leader, Chief Godwin Ekpemupolo, alias Tompolo, distanced the president from the affair saying “That is a lie, President Jonathan is not involved in the matter, he did not give any directive, they should leave him out of it.”
Bebenimibo, chairman of Okowa Mandate 2015, who earlier told Vanguard that Okowa would win, despite the UPU gang –up against Delta North, said, “We, the Ijaw people from Delta South senatorial district, except for some few that voted for the former Minister of Niger-Delta, Elder Godsday Orubebe, worked for Okowa because we know he is the leader that Delta state needs now.”
An Ijaw governorship aspirant, Mr. Andrew Warri, who stepped down for Okowa, told Vanguard, “Okowa deserved the victory, my people told me to step down and work for him. I had to respect their position, the primary was free and fair, nobody can fault the process.”
Okowa is known to be loved by the political class in the state, but his tiff with Uduaghan alienated some persons until the eleventh hour when the Ibori followers rallied round him. Senator James Manager, who is also of the Ibori political family, led his Ijaw kinsmen, while Tompolo, did a yeoman job behind the scene.
Nwaoboshi undeterred till the last minute
Former state chairman of the party, Chief Peter Nwaoboshi, who had boasted that it was Delta North in 2015, was not deterred by the last minute momentum towards Edevbie. He told Vanguard five hours before the votes were counted, “Mark it, you will see what will happen, there is no way Delta Central is going to get it.”
Nwaoboshi shook hands triumphantly with Senator Manager shortly after Ijaw delegates cast their votes, probably for a job well done. This was before the votes were counted. The refusal of Delta North aspirants to arrive at a consensus candidate for the primary worried the Ibori political family, but that notwithstanding, it deployed its immense muscle in the three senatorial districts to deliver Okowa.
Shocker for UPU
An Urhobo leader said, “In fact, the UPU was shocked that some Urhobo people voted for Okowa instead of Edevbie. Even though the votes from all the local governments were mixed and counted together, it was clear when the Delta Central local governments were being counted that they were betrayers in the house.”

Uduaghan
“It was Ibori that directed that Chief Ighoyota Amori should get the Delta Central senatorial ticket and before you know it, the same Amori that lost to Senator Emmanuel Aguariavwodo, some months ago, emerged as flag bearer.   You see, this is politics, Amori and others, even though they are all under UPU, have no choice than to work for the candidate of their man,” he added.
Few hours to the primary, the adoption of Chief Edevbie by UPU apparently in consultation with the powers that be instilled fear in some of the aspirants and made some, including the deputy governor, Prof Amos Utuama, to drop from the race.
The Urhobo political class and other government officials, who were giving marching orders to deliver Chief Edevbie worked hard as most of them moved from one delegate to the other, canvassing for votes without fruitful results. Most of them beyond what they were given, spent their personal money to woo delegates but to no avail.
One reason the Ijaw kicked against Edevbie was that they saw him as a member of the cabal that worked against the ascension of Dr. Jonathan as acting president when President Umaru Yar’Adua took ill in 2009. The Ijaw gave bloc votes to Dr Okowa, vowing that the man, who worked against the emergence of their kinsman (Jonathan) would get not their votes.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/12/okowas-victory-inside-story/

Former President Olusegun Obsanjo has sensationally linked the travails of Nuhu Ribadu, former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), to his refusal to marry late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. Yar’Adau’s daughters were famous for marrying big political figures, mostly governors. Ribadu, an assistant inspector general of police, was removed as EFCC chairman, demoted to the rank of deputy commissioner of police and eventually dismissed after a face-off with Yar’Adua. It was generally believed then that Ribadu’s refusal to terminate the corruption trial of James Ibori, former governor of Delta state and Yar’Adua’s close ally, was responsible for his travails. While not dismissing the link, Obasanjo has also suggested that Ribadu’s refusal to marry Yar’Adua’s daughter could have contributed to his maltreatment by the former president who died in 2010. He also wrote in “My Watch”, his three-volume memoirs launched on Tuesday,  that Tanimu Yakubu Kurfi, thought to be the most powerful man in Yar’Adua’s government, had a fall-out with Ribadu over a woman who was said to be more interested in the former EFCC chairman. Obasanjo  further alleged that Babagana Kingibe had a personal fall-out with Nasir el-Rufai over the infidelity of one of Kingibe’s wives. The retired general wrote: “It was revealed, for instance, that Tanimu’s main reason for wanting to fight Nuhu to a standstill was the allegation that a woman he was interested in marrying was showing more interest in Nuhu! I understand that Tanimu, in the end, married the lady, and I wondered if that would be the end of the war of attrition against Nuhu. “This was about the same time that Umaru encouraged Nuhu to marry one of his daughters, an idea which Nuhu spurned. Could that have been partly responsible for Umaru’s fury? “The Kingibe case as revealed is quite similar to Tanimu’s, as a woman is at the centre of it also. Nasir el-Rufai was accused of knowingly harbouring a boyfriend of one of Kingibe’s wives in his guest house, where this wife and her boyfriend would meet. “If Nasir chose to make his house available to his friend out of hospitality, one wonders if he could also determine which guest, male or female, his friend would receive. It would have been a different case if Nasir himself was accused of dating Kingibe’s wife!” Obasanjo further narrated how he was “blacked out” of Yar’Adua’s government at the instance of a “cabal”. The former head of state revealed that a very close friend of the Villa and a member of Yar’Adua’s inner circle, a minister from Katsina, spent two nights in his house in Abeokuta after Yar’Adua’s death. “What he told me, which may or may not have been true, was astounding, and for me another good lesson. It was sickening how Tanimu and Kingibe used government instruments at their disposal to settle personal scores. “At first, it was the same men now in the corridors of power, like Tanimu Yakubu Kurfi and Baba Kingibe, who suddenly remembered ‘the evil’ I had done them in the past, which they wanted to avenge. For Tanimu, whom I appointed Managing Director of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria on the recommendation of then Governor Umaru Yar’Adua, my offence was that I did not appoint him to run and handle the Yar’Adua Presidential Campaign and manage the campaign fund. From what I had seen of his performance at the Federal Mortgage Bank, I would not have made or allowed such an appointment. “For Baba Kingibe his grouse, I came to hear, was that I had advised Umaru Yar’Adua to consider the background of the man he was proposing to appoint as the secretary to the government of the federation. Baba was rejected by the government of Cameroon, at one time, when he was proposed as Nigerian Ambassador; and when Shehu Yar’Adua and I were in Kirikiri Prison, Shehu did not have any good thing to say about Baba Kingibe. “Umaru Yar’Adua told Tanimu Yakubu Kurfi and Baba Kingibe my impression of them and they went up in arms, aided and supported by two governors – Bukola Saraki and James Ibori – for their own personal and selfish reasons. There were other men and women who played supporting roles. I was neither worried nor have apologies for my views and impressions, which are well grounded in evidence.” Obasanjo said Yar’Adua later sacked Kingibe when “overambition was noticed by his boss” at a time ill-health was taking its toll on the late president’s work. With Yar’Adua’s health getting worse, intrigues ensured and members of the “cabal” went after anyone they perceived as close to Obasanjo, including the VP, Goodluck Jonathan, who was starved of information and access to the president. Obasanjo wrote: “Tanimu confided in his friend, saying that they all realised that it was only a matter of time; the centre would not hold. Everybody then decided to make money for themselves before the centre collapsed; and they did so while the No. 2 man in government knew little or nothing about what was going on. “He was kept in the dark. Government had been privatised by the cabal. For the whole of this period, the vice president could not chair a cabinet meeting, and he did not know how long the president would be away. During my administration, my VP chaired cabinet meetings any Wednesday that I was not physically in Abuja; and why not, after all if anything serious happened to me the VP should take over automatically. “In this case, however, Yar’Adua’s VP was not even briefed of the president travelling out of the country. He was starved of funds for the maintenance of his office and residence and, in fact, unimaginably, was later called in to see the dead body of the president on his death bed. I know the plight of the VP because, on a few occasions, I had to encourage him to bear it by being patient.”

Read more at: http://www.thecable.ng/obasanjo-yaradua-wanted-ribadu-marry-daughter-refused-trouble-started | TheCable

ormer President, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, has taken a swipe at his former deputy, Atiku Abubakar; former Senate President, Ken Nnamani, ex-Lagos State Governor, Bola Tinubu and former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, describing most of them as liars.

He also accused President Goodluck Jonathan of incompetence, while saying that the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua deceived him over his state of health.

Writing in his memoirs entitled: Olusegun Obasanjo: My Watch, in Lagos which was presented to the public yesterday, Obasanjo said the late Yar’Adua did not give him a full picture of his health condition when the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) agreed to present him as presidential candidate in 2007.

In a chapter in the book, which chronicles the life of the former President from birth till this year, entitled: “To be or Not to be: Jonathan,” Obasanjo stated that the late Yar’Adua made him to believe that he had overcome his health problems, thereby deceiving him.

The former President wrote in the book: “I was heavily involved in the transition and exit process that saw me leaving office for my successor, Umaru Yar’Adua, as recounted in Chapter 37, the ninth chapter of the second volume of this book. The unprepared and unplanned transition from Yar’Adua to Jonathan was a more difficult exercise in some respects. One reason was the ‘cloak and dagger’ manner in which Yar’Adua’s illness was handled.

“The illness of a President cannot be regarded as private. His health has implications for the security and wellbeing of the nation. For the president and those around him to have attempted strenuously to keep the fact of the severity of his illness from public smacks of ignorance of the enormity of what the job entails and the level of provinciality of their understanding, attitude, and approach.

In the book,  Obasanjo blasted President Jonathan, describing him as an incompetent leader. He wrote that President Jonathan has failed Nigerians and considered the current administration as inept and a colossal failure. He exonerated himself from the blame of the Musa Yar’Adua/Jonathan presidency that resulted in the current administration.

The former President did not also spare some leaders, like Atiku, who he described as a “blatant and shameless liar.” Also, he described El-Rufai as “a brilliant man who is economical with the truth.” Just as he wrote that Tinubu, was “one of the worst cases” in terms of corruption. He described Gen Muhammadu Buhari as a “strong, almost inflexible, courageous and firm leader,” but said he would not be a good economic manager.

In the book, Obasanjo also blasted Yoruba chieftains, some of whom he said would prefer to be “rulers in hell, if they cannot be rulers in heaven.”

On the infamous Third Term agenda, Obasanjo denied that he ever wanted to elongate his tenure, but wrote that it was the monumental mischief of his detractors that turned an effort at constitutional reform into a myopic argument about tenure elongation.

He accused  Atiku and PDP governors, saying that were behind the alleged move. He said: “Atiku was behind the whole episode of turning wholesome constitutional amendment efforts of the National Assembly to a futile exercise and as a means of riding on its ashes to be a Nigerian President,” he wrote.

“Those who can be regarded as influential and who have publicly accused me of allegedly manipulating a third term were Atiku Abubakar, who is a blatant and shameless liar, who was behind the whole episode of turning wholesome constitutional amendments efforts of the National Assembly to a futile exercise and as a means of riding on its ashes to be a Nigerian President; Nasir el-Rufai, a brilliant man, economical with truth and without substantiating his claim in his book and has a track record of a turncoat.

“If I did not want tenure elongation when I was military Head of State and had me to, I see no reason why I should be falsely accused of coup planning by Abacha and tenure elongation by Atiku.”

He also blasted Nnamani, in the book, saying: “Ken Nnamani, the then Senate President, was a blatant liar and unabashed maker of the untrue statement on third term by saying that I informed him of my desire for a third term. As for Gbajabiamila (Femi), who talked about money passing hands, if money flowed to lawmakers, it was not from the federal treasury and definitely not from me. It could be from state governors who wished to be beneficiaries of a third term amendment.”

Writing on Tinubu, he said: “Nuhu Ribadu tried to investigate almost all of them to the best of my understanding. At a time, he publicly announced that 28 out of the 36 governors were either manifestly corrupt or had tainted in one way or other. He gave me a copy of his report on those governors. Bola Tinubu was definitely one of the worst cases.”
The former President also took a swipe at former governor of Ogun State, Gbenga Daniel, in the book, saying: “Daniel is shifty, dubious and believes he is the cleverest human being on earth.”

While answering questions thrown at him, Obasanjo said he was not afraid of telling the truth, insisting that everything he wrote was true.
http://sunnewsonline.com/new/?p=94695

atlwireles:
Uduaghan brought this on himself, why did he want to unseat the only leading ijaw politician in delta state? Thank God he came to his senses and traded the right votes for Okowa. Senator MANAGER, is now the new kingmaker in the state.


He will probably head to Abuja as Minister of health come 2015.

That's the only option for him now

atlwireles:
He pulled it off again

Uduaghan has lost out though. No Senate Seat, no governor....
PS Watch out for James Manager. He's looking like a very skillful player this days

atlwireles:
Even from the walls of his prison cell, this man still has power in my state of delta.

The Great Odidigborigbo Of Africa

Sen Arthur Ifeanyi Okowa's victory has caused wild celebration in Asaba and his hometown Agbor. Whoever gets the PDP ticket is as good as won the election.

First Anioma governor of delta

ProfCorruption:
Does he have the structure to win the main election?

PDP owns Adamawa, Fintiri who is heavily popular was at the primaries and he backed him, Zwingina,Boni Haruna and all the former governors who control Adamawa votes back him. Had the bye election held then, Fintiri would have destroyed Bindow the APC's candidate. Even Buhari lost to GEJ in Adamawa in 2011. It is equally populated by both Muslims and christians.

@atlwireles Bro what's happening in Delta, heard Obuh has been dumped, how true is that?2

Confirmed now

Ribadu wins PDP ticket for Adamawa
The Pioneer Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, Nuhu Ribadu has clinched the tickets of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP in Adamawa state. Mr. Ribadu beat six other contestants including the state governor, Bala Ngilari in an election which held at the Old Parade ground, Abuja‎. The PDP's national Working Committee, NWC, moved the election to Abuja after Mr. Ngilari was accused by a panel sent to the state to conduct primary election for state Assembly aspirants of holding them hostage. Monday's election results which was announced by the chairman of the Election Panel, Rufai Hanga, showed that Mr. Ribadu got 688 votes while, Mr. Ngilari got 26 votes. Other candidates, such as the son of former chairman of the PDP, Bamanga Tukur, Awwal Tukur, got 24 votes and former executive secretary of Universal Basic Education, Commission, UBE‎C, Ahmed Modibbo, got 30 and Retired General Aliyu Kama got 3 votes. Another candidate, Marcus Gundiri, who ran for governor under the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN,  in the 2011‎ election, Marcus Gundiri got 33 votes.
http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/172633-pdp-picks-governorship-candidates-nationwide-live-updates.html

Likely Results.
Jimi Agbaje-Lagos
Nuhu Ribadu-Adamawa
Muhammed Abacha-Kano
David Edevbie Or Tony Obuh-Delta
Etc.

The Chairman, Senate Committee on Oil and Gas,Downstream sector, Senator Emmanuel Paulker and former Director General, Nigerian Television Authority, (NTA), and Chairman of Silverbird Group, Mr. Ben Murray-Bruce have emerged as the ruling People’s Democratic Party, (PDP) flag bearers representing Bayelsa Central and East Senatorial Districts in the 2015 general election.However, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri lost his re-election bid to the immediate past chairman ofthe Bayelsa State Scholarship Board, Evangelist Foster Ogola.This was contained in the result declared by the Chief Returning Officers in the three Senatorial Districts and coordinated by the Chairman, Bayelsa State National Assembly Primaries Electoral Committee, General Idi Adamu, (retd).Ben Murray-BruceMurray-Bruce won by 138 votes, 127 votes more than second placed Anthony Ikoli (SAN) who polled 11. Hon. Nelson Belief 2 votes, Mrs Irene Digitemie Opuene 4 votes, Hon. Clever Ikisikpo 0 votes while Austin Dressman and Professor Ayebaemi Spiff withdrew.In Bayelsa Central Senatorial District polled Senator Emmanuel Paulker 174 votes to win and retain his place. Austin Ogionwon Febo got 17 votes, Ebiundu Komonibo 1 vote, Torunana 1 vote.In Bayelsa West Senatorial District, Evangelist Foster Ogola 69 votes winner, Hon. Ayakeme Whiskey 27 votes, Captain Matthew Karimo 12 votes, Dr. Stella Dorgu 3 votes, Chief Frank Akpoebi 2 votes, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri 0.
http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2014/12/07/bayelsa-senatorial-primaries-paulker-murray-bruce-in-lokpobiri-out/

MOSCOW, December 3.
Russia and Nigeria have signed a memorandum on interaction and cooperation between their security councils, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev’s spokesman Igor Shvytkin said Wednesday.
The document was signed at a meeting between Patrushev and Nigerian presidential national security advisor Sambo Dasuki.
“The document is called upon to become a basis for regular dialogue between the sides on different aspects, including in the sphere of international and regional security,” Shvytkin said.
http://itar-tass.com/en/world/764951

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Atiku further said he wanted to become Nigerian president not for his selfish interest, but that he was determined at enthroning rule of law, internal democracy and progress in the country.Speaking earlier, the Chairman of the APC in Plateau State, Hon. Latep Dabang, said that all the state delegates will massively vote for Atiku because of his financial support for the party, assuring that no Plateau State delegate would vote for anyone else.
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/i-would-have-defeated-obasanjo-in-2003-says-atiku/195663/

barcanista:
He wants to run for Senate I think

Nope, he is tipped to head GEJ's presidential campaign team, he narrowly lost out to Gen Arogbofa for Chief Of Staff To Gej early this year

The aspiration of Atiku Abubakar to emerge presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, got a boost on Sunday as the chairman of the party in Gombe pledged that delegates from the zone would support him.

Magaji Doho, the APC Chairman in Gombe, stated this when Mr. Abubakar met party delegates from Gombe and Yobe states in Gombe. He assured Mr. Abubakar of full support by the state chapter and the delegates.

Mr. Doho said the insecurity in the zone has affected many people, adding that Mr. Abubakar’s efforts has reduced the menace in Adamawa. He expressed optimism that the presidential ticket of the party and eventual victory in the 2015 elections would go to North East.

The chairman further commended the aspirant for his foresight to invest in his North East zone and the country at large.

While addressing the delegates, Mr. Abubakar solicited their support for his presidential ambition.

According to him, he has spent over 30 years in politics and he deserves to be the president of Nigeria, “being the person who knows Nigeria’s problems”.

He said if voted in to power, he would protect the right of ordinary Nigerians and promote peaceful coexistence among all interest groups nationwide.

Mr. Abubakar called on Nigerians to also protect themselves from the current insurgency in the country, especially in the North East.

He said that the insurgency in the zone had disrupted the economy of the region.

(NAN)
http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/172141-nigeria-2015-gombe-apc-delegates-pledge-support-atiku.html




Atiku is a very adept politician. Expect more endorsements in the days to come

SenseiX:
Heard Fash and Tinubu are not on talking terms. How true is that? Which side is Banire on?

Don't know about that but i'm a little surprised Banire came out openly to expose the cracks. The axe might fall really hard on him

Tinubu's empire is crumbling. Fashola is rooting for Supo Sashore against Ambode. It's one of the main factors why Tinubu is vehemently opposed to his emergence as Buhari's running mate propping up his loyalists like Yemi Osinbajo,Wale Edun and Ajayi Borrofice instead on the VP shortlist. Gani Solomon,Ikuforiji et Al are also revolting. Although the recently dissolved LGA Chairs tenures have expired. Fashola is bent on appointing loyalists as caretaker chairmen to secure the ticket for Sashore.
On the other hand Jimi Agbaje looks set to pick PDP's ticket with the results of last week's ward congress showing loyalists of his backers Bode George and Ogunlewe trumping Koro's men. 2015 is gonna be a close one in Lag

Muiz Banire, the National Legal Adviser of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and three-time commissioner in Lagos State, speaks to PREMIUM TIMES on a looming crisis within the state chapter of the party. The APC, in its previous forms, has controlled Lagos since 1999.
What is your assessment of the APC’s chances in next year’s governorship election in Lagos?
To be candid, I am unable to say what it will be like because of what is presently going on within the party. My only hope is that we are able to be transparent, fair and just in the nomination process. Once we are able to do that, I will consider it very bright. But if otherwise, I’m not too sure what that will portend for us.
When you say ‘what is presently going on,’ what exactly are you talking about?
There is a tendency of imposition on the people. And a lot of people are out to resist it. And party members too appear to be on the same plane with those that are leading the struggle against the imposition of candidate. So I believe that it does not signal anything that is good for all of us.
A party leader in APC once said that this imposition method is working since the candidates are delivering, so there is no need changing a winning formula...
(Cuts in) Well, if it has worked, the first question one (would) want to ask such a person, particularly if you are referring to Asiwaju (Bola Tinubu), his own emergence was not as a result of hand picking in 1998, go and ask him. We had direct primaries all over Lagos. And BRF (Babatunde Fashola) will tell you that he is not a product of single-handed imposition, and you can confirm from him. I’m quoting him now. At least we still had primaries all over, some people didn’t participate ultimately, some that felt aggrieved, they left and he had a field day in 2007. So I did not know where that person would have gotten such an impression from. But let’s even assume that to be, the truth of the matter is that it is no more fashionable now, even if he had been doing it before. Secondly, this is a new party, and you recall our slogan is ‘change,’ that we are trying to do away with all those untoward things like lack of internal democracy. So I believe that it must not even be allowed to happen now, even if it had been happening in the past. It is not progressive. And if anybody claims to be progressive, he must not be seen to be advocating that kind of backdoor emergence of candidates.
Still on this issue of imposition, how much damage do you think it can wreak on the party?
A lot. I will start from the fact that it does not encourage mobilisation in the party in the first instance. Because the meaning is that rather than people going to their constituents to solicit for votes, they rather prefer to go to some leaders lurking in one corner or the other to go and solicit tickets. So you are not mobilising people into the system, to start with. Secondly, people are not accountable to their constituents again because of the imposition. Because if you have a godfather who has imposed you on the people, it’s the godfather that you are accountable to and in most cases what you find out is that the accountability in that instance is a tribute. That again does not boost the morale of the party members. And thirdly, it causes a lot of factionalisation, unnecessary ones. And we’ve had the consequence once and I kept on saying it. During the last local government elections, we had a similar experience. Some of our party member went to vote against our candidates. So it’s no news. So it could wreak a lot of damage.
If the party does not revert to internal democracy, do you see members moving out in droves?
To be candid, I foresee it. The level of frustration is so much within the system. Most of the people that I have come across that have struggled within the party seem to be frustrated already. In fact, it has taken my intervention to arrest largely the drift of people to the opposition party. And I believe that if you are giving them assurance you must be able to secure that assurance to the last, because if you fail, then you may not be able to control anybody. It could happen, more so that the PDP is advancing seriously against us in the state. So I do not believe that we should play to their hands at all.
If Mr. Tinubu, for example, insists on having his way in selecting the party’s gubernatorial candidate. What do you think would be the general reaction this time around?
Well, there are so many things that are involved. I’m aware that we have a guideline that is substantially watertight. Unfortunately, I don’t know why, in the last two weeks, that has not been released to the public to know. If we go by that, it will be difficult for anybody to manipulate the process. Because it is expected that when people gather in a place to select their candidates, they will vote secretly in the first instance and at the end of the day they vote for the candidate immediately and the vote given to the candidate immediately. But I think that is being resisted by those that are agents of imposition, already. And I think that…to do otherwise, I tell you the only asset we have and I’ve continued to warn us, is to throw up popular candidates in the state. Not only in our state alone, all over the country in order to make sure that whoever is going to be our ambassador must be a popular candidate. And a product of fair, transparent, and just primary. If it is not so, honestly it could spell doom for us at any level.
If those agitating for internal democracy have their way, do you see those on the other side, that is, the imposition camp, willingly working with them?
Working with us? You know they are in the minority, extreme minority for that matter. All they have access to, in most cases, is free funds. If you put that aside, it’s not that it’s anything extraordinary that is being worshipped in any one of them.
Are you backing any particular candidate for the APC governorship primaries in Lagos?
Number one, I’m a national officer of the party, we are meant to be neutral. I cannot back any candidate because of my position. Secondly, is the fact that some of us will prefer to see a candidate emerge as a result of the resolve of the people. So that’s my own thoughts in that regard.
About a dozen candidates are vying for the APC ticket in Lagos. Do you think the party has provided a level playing field?
Not all of them have level playing field, but we can make it level. Unfortunately for us, some of our leaders that are supposed to be participants in this process of creating a level playing field are the people that are also trying to also undermine it, that’s the sad thing about it. Because leaders must struggle to create a level playing ground for all of them to go into the contest. But we have seen a situation where resources, collective resources of the people and the party, is being used to mould a particular candidate.
Which particular candidate are you referring to?
The so called anointed candidate (Akinwunmi Ambode). That’s common knowledge in Lagos.
There was a period you were touted as the next governorship candidate in Lagos. What happened to that dream?
I for one I don’t have such ambition. And the reason why I don’t have are so many. One of them is the stigmatization of participants in public service. There is this presumption in favour of most people that are in public service, whether you struggle to be upright and honest, they don’t care. Once you are in that system, you are a thief. That stigmatization alone honestly discourages me from serving in any public capacity. Because they don’t believe that there could still be some people that would go into public office and still do it honestly.
Secondly again, is that I do know also because of my independence that some people will never be comfortable in their life with me, and me I’m not ready to compromise my standards and principles. So to that extent I will not even subject myself to that kind of process where you think you can blackmail me. It’s not possible. So I’m not even inclined on that ground again.
Thirdly, is the fact that I believe that at certain level you must allow new generation of people to take over the system. I was in the system for 12 years. I believe, with all sense of humility, I’ve added my own value. There are so many other people with better ideas, better energy, better thoughts than even some of us that we must leave the floor for to contribute their own quota.
When you talked about the people’s resources being used to promote a particular candidate, who did you have in mind?
We are going to define that very soon. Any time from December 3rd, we’ll start defining it. And documenting it appropriately.
Why wait till December 3rd?
Because December 2nd is the primaries. By 3rd, we’ll see.
Do you think ‘stomach infrastructure’ would shape voting in Lagos in 2015?
Not so much this time around, I can tell you. Because people in Lagos are, to a large extent, becoming more and more enlightened about the process these days and they are beginning to see the correct actors. And those dubious characters that used to be the leaders in the system people are beginning to identify them and repulse them. Even if you give them money, you throw everything to them; they will still do what is within their conscience. That is what’s the margin now, and we are going to put everything humanly possible behind to further educate and enlighten the people on why they must do the proper thing.
More members have become outspoken against imposition of candidates now, more than ever before in the party. Do you think Mr. Tinubu’s influence in the party, particularly in Lagos State, is waning?
Number one, APC is a new creation, it’s not ACN. APC is a much bigger party, and it’s a conglomeration of several interests. So to that extent one person cannot be in charge again. So for now everybody is in charge, every party member is in charge now unlike before. So that’s the difference.
Is everybody being in charge a plus for the party?
Yes. Serious one. Because now we have a bigger party, a bigger platform for all of us.
Final word: I want to encourage our people, particularly APC people, to shine their eyes. They must shine their eyes this time around and not allow anybody to pull the wool over them. They have their votes, their rights, and they must go all out to ensure that we have and enjoy free, transparent, and just primaries. And that whoever emerges must be the product of that process. They must be ready. They shouldn’t feel intimidated by anybody because nobody is god. For me, I want them to believe that there is God and all of us are creations of God and we have equal rights to aspire to anything. And you need not have any godfather before you can be anything, particularly in APC. What you need are your constituents, once they support you, you must be able to sail through. Not until one godfather or the other endorses you.
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/170818-apc-could-lose-lagos-in-2015-national-legal-adviser-muiz-banire-warns.html

PassingShot:
I didn't see anywhere he has predicted that PDP will win in 2015. He is cautious enough not to side with any party while warning APC not to think it's easy for them to win in the SW.

Meanwhile, he has forgotten that when it comes to the presidential election, that a party controls a state does not necessarily mean that that state will tow the party line. Example is 2011 when PDP won many western states at the presidential election but failed woefully at the gubernatorial election. For the record, PDP won in all the SW states except Osun during the presidential but failed to win the gubernatorial.
In the same way, PDP may win some of the SW states but the people still side with Buhari+any SW running mate.

GEJ only needs 3 SW states to add to his SS,SE,Middle Belt and Taraba-Adamawa bloc to win, Ekiti, Ondo and Oyo are tilting towards the PDP. With the APC unravelling in Ogun it remains firmly in play. Same with Lagos. Only Ogun is firmly with the APC and even there GEJ should get at least 40 percent as can be seen from Omisore polling 43% here in the last gubernatorial poll. It's simple math

Not to worry. Tony Chuks Obuh will be the next governor of delta state. Ifeanyi Okowa, Victor Ochei,Sylvester Monye, Ndudi Elumelu all have outside chances

.

This analysis was written by Simon Kolawole, reputed ex This day editor and owner of The Cable newspaper. Kolawole is noted for being a strong supporter of Gen Buhari and one of his closest media allies. That said, he remains a very unbiased and respected columnist. Here is his take on next year's race
I have been listening to comments and reading analyses on the 2015 presidential election with rapt attention. There is nothing unanimous in the predictions and projections, but I am sensing a trend in the analyses: that if the All Progressives Congress (APC) fields Maj. General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) against President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), then it will be a piece of cake for the former head of state. A Buhari supporter, in a recent newspaper interview, said Buhari's votes in the North plus Bola Tinubu's votes in the south-west equal automatic victory for APC.


Slow down a bit, guys. I have no intention of raining on anyone's parade or pouring cold water on exciting calculations, but analyses do not have to be this simplistic. If the history and politics of elections in Nigeria are to be of any use in these postulations, the safest bet will be to say there are still many rivers to cross. My intention today is to draw attention to several facts and factors that will be at play during the elections. Many things are still taking shape; opportunities and threats still exist for the PDP and the APC. It is too early in the day to arrive at definite conclusions.


Let us look into some of the assumptions one by one. The first is that Buhari will clear the votes in the core North and Tinubu will deliver the South-west votes in one basket. That Buhari will win in the core North has never been in dispute ─ he has done so consistently since 2003. It is unthinkable that he will not win there. However, I'm not sure Tinubu can clear the South-west the same way Buhari could do in the core North. It appears many commentators have not been monitoring recent developments in the South-west. To start with, two of the six states ─ Ekiti and Ondo ─ are now in the hands of PDP. That is important to note.


Meanwhile, the APC is getting weaker in Oyo state. The three APC senators have left the party; the death of Alhaji Alao Arisekola has dealt some body blow on Governor Abiola Ajimobi; former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala (PDP) is on a rebound; former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, who controls large portions of Ibadan, is complicating things for APC. In Ogun, Governor Ibikunle Amosun is under fire from within and without.  Chief Olusegun Osoba, in whose camp the Ogun APC senators and house members are, is playing hard ball with Amosun. The PDP, meanwhile, is bringing back its break-up groups and rebuilding in the state.


In simple words, Oyo and Ogun have become very shaky and it is a bit tenuous to assume the South-west will vote en bloc for APC in 2015. I may well be wrong, but I am seeing a split of the zone's 13.5 million votes. The South-west, in my opinion, is neither here nor there yet. No assumptions should be made and no conclusions should be reached yet, certainly not in October 2014. Of course, the APC is not sleeping and is also hoping to gain from the fall-outs from PDP's possible slips in the coming weeks. But South-west does not look like one-way traffic as at today.


Meanwhile, there is also this assumption that Buhari ─ or APC ─ does not need the South-east and South-south (SESS). That is ridiculous. First, it is not good for Buhari's CV that he has never won in any Southern state since he launched his presidential bid in 2003. Not one state. And it is also not good political strategy to downplay SESS. There are 11 states in these two geo-political zones. The APC calculation may be that the South-south would rather have a "son of the soil" as president. The South-east, it seems, is fully joined in matrimony to South-south under Jonathan's presidency. But does that mean giving up without a fight?


Let us now reverse the case. Jonathan, despite knowing that the core North will be a difficult hunting ground for him, is putting up a decent fight. He is working to secure as many votes as possible in Buhari's territory. The president has gathered many strong politicians to his side. Now let us do some basic calculations. SESS has 17 million votes combined. Buhari's home zone, North-west, has 18.7 million registered voters. If Jonathan bites off as much as 30-40% of the votes in the North-west (which he did in 2011) while Buhari does poorly in SESS (like before), Jonathan would clearly gain more than Buhari in the candidates' home zones.


Jonathan's chances, in the meantime, are also bright among the Northern minorities. It could be minority solidarity, I can't say. The North-central has 11 million names on the voter register. Jonathan's reconciliation with former military, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, and the governor of Niger State, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, could help him in Niger state. Kogi, Plateau, Nasarawa and Benue would ordinarily back Jonathan. But Kwara, which supported him in 2011, is now uncertain, with the godfather, Bukola Saraki, relocating to APC. Buhari will fancy his chances in Kwara, that is if Saraki can ward off his PDP foes, who look very formidable. In truth, Kwara now looks more like a tight corner for both parties.


The North-east, boasting of 11 million registered voters, could be a mixed bag. Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno have always gone to Buhari, while Taraba and Adamawa seem to have a thing for Jonathan. But something significant has changed in Borno: Ali Modu Sheriff is now in PDP. Since 1999, Borno has always faced any direction Sheriff pointed to, and his defection must be considered a loss to APC. I was not surprised at APC's reaction when Sheriff left: Borno's 2.5 million votes are the nation's fifth largest after Lagos (5.4m), Kano (4.7m), Kaduna (3.7m) and Katsina (2.9m). Being Buhari's familiar hunting ground, however, Borno could still be game for him.


Before I shut down my computer, I would like to maintain that unlike many observers and analysts, I foresee a very competitive election. And, I think, four months to the polls, we should avoid jumping into certain conclusions. One of the major failings of the opposition is that they underrated Jonathan's ability to respond to the momentum they gained last year. Before they could settle down to savour the heavyweight defections from PDP to APC, the Jonathan camp had launched a counter offensive, in addition to benefitting from crises arising from the consolidation process of APC.


Therefore, dear readers, with what I have seen in Nigeria in the last few months, and what I understand about the dynamics of our electoral politics, I would conclude that the day is still young.  For the two leading parties, there are still many hurdles to clear. Let the game begin!
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/jonathan-and-the-2015-calculations/192278

Hehehe, he sounds really pained