chimex38:

Lol... On point...QED.

emmanuelewumi:



It is useful if you are an investor

Bizibi:
how is their dividends

bovali:

Valuation of Access Bank’s Stock: A Comprehensive Analysis Using 10 Methods

In this post, I analyze the potential stock price of Access Bank, a major player in Nigeria’s banking industry, using 10 different valuation methods. For each method, I present a worst, base, and best-case scenario. This approach provides a well-rounded view of the stock’s valuation under various market conditions.

1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share (EPS). With an EPS of ₦7.61, I applied three different P/E multiples to arrive at potential price ranges.

• Worst Case (P/E = 4x): ₦30.44
• Base Case (P/E = 8x): ₦60.88
• Best Case (P/E = 12x): ₦91.32

2. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio

This method values the stock based on the net asset value of the company. It provides insights into how the market values the bank’s equity in relation to its actual assets.

• Worst Case (P/B = 0.8x): ₦63.86
• Base Case (P/B = 1.2x): ₦95.79
• Best Case (P/B = 1.6x): ₦127.72

3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model

The DCF model estimates the present value of the company’s future cash flows. This is one of the most comprehensive methods, often used for long-term valuations.

• Worst Case: ₦28.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦105.00

4. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a stock based on the present value of future dividend payments. This method is particularly useful for dividend-paying companies like Access Bank.

• Worst Case: ₦22.00
• Base Case: ₦50.00
• Best Case: ₦75.00

5. Asset-Based Valuation

In this method, I assess the value of the stock based on the company’s net assets (assets minus liabilities). This provides a conservative view of the stock price.

• Worst Case: ₦35.00
• Base Case: ₦60.00
• Best Case: ₦80.00

6. Earnings Growth Model

This approach forecasts the company’s future earnings and applies a multiple based on growth expectations.

• Worst Case: ₦25.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦85.00

7. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio compares the stock price to the company’s revenue per share. It’s useful when earnings are volatile or when valuing early-stage companies.

• Worst Case: ₦12.94
• Base Case: ₦32.34
• Best Case: ₦51.74

8. Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)

This method looks at the company’s enterprise value relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

• Worst Case: ₦30.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦100.00

9. Relative Valuation (Comparables)

Relative valuation compares Access Bank’s valuation multiples (like P/E and P/B) to its peers in the Nigerian banking sector. This method provides context by assessing how Access Bank compares to competitors.

• Worst Case: ₦27.00
• Base Case: ₦58.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

10. Economic Value Added (EVA)

EVA measures the company’s ability to generate returns above its cost of capital. This is a good indicator of the company’s profitability and long-term value creation.

• Worst Case: ₦32.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

Summary:

To provide a concise summary, I calculate the average share price across the 10 valuation methods for the worst, base, and best-case scenarios:

• Worst Case Average: ₦30.73
• Base Case Average: ₦59.90
• Best Case Average: ₦88.88

The current stock price of Access Holdings PLC (ACCESSCORP) as of September 20, 2024, is ₦19.00 per share, following a 3.06% decline from the previous day. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a low of ₦15.45 (September 28, 2023) to a high of ₦30.70 (January 18, 2024). This price trend reflects some volatility, with the stock trading closer to the lower end of its annual range recently. I expect another low to high cycle this September to January period again.

Given this context, the stock is currently trading well below the upper bounds projected in the best-case valuation but aligns more closely with some of the base-case valuations derived from the methods I used earlier. This highlights that the stock might have more growth potential if conditions improve, but it is still trading near recent lows.
Not financial advice. DYOR

Agbalowomeri:


Good job baby girl
However, you can hardly get any naija bank selling above PBV > 0.5
Dividend is important. I don't see ACCESS giving N3 so stock price would still hit resistance at that 30. However, I am almost sure that it can do a 30 by 3rd week of January (yes take it to the bank ) which is 50%. You notice how UBA has been hovering around 23/24. Na majority wey dey risk for 10% dividend. At all at all.... . Naija Banks will also hardly sell above P/E of 4 unless we see a RoE of 40%

Sorry to dampen your expectation. Na grey hair dey worry me Lol . Apart from FBNH sentiment, all banks will move together and the likelihood of better capital appreciation historically has been better with lower priced banks. It's just the way our psyche is conditioned in this market.

However, maybe we will get a new ololo trend this time.

yMcy56:

Try and find time to do some diggings and don't forget to update us.

For JAPAUL to engage KPMG services for internal restructuring and to help tailor their services, I think theres something definitely big coming JP's way.

Bizibi:
If he doesn't interfere,the management will take the company to greater heights. My major worry is government policies,na my concern with Nigeria government.

Bizibi:
yes it is very important to research about companies,I like seeing things for myself before making decisions.i like companies investing in massive infrastructures because those infrastructures and the business can last for decades.

i need shares I can retire with and transfer to the next generation just like what my late dad did in the family.

Meerahbel:
Exchange rate is at 1600+

Bizibi:
when it comes to long term investments I always like to see things for myself before investing, when he succeeds the company will be the biggest mining company from Nigeria.

Bizibi:
japaulgold must be doing something massive,i will look for a free time to see their sites.

emmanuelewumi:


Stingy bank

Harvestock01:
[b][/b]

I hope your account has not been hacked 😕

Xidget:
Will bear come before bull ni? Cos, I follow u dey wait for bear since o.

Uchetoba:
NPF MICROFINANCE BANK

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42152_NPF_MICROFINANCE_BANK_PLC-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_SEPTEMBER_2024.pdf

emmanuelewumi:



Bull that will come like a thief at night

jckgroup1:

Oga Megawealth
I greet you specially....

I believe your calls but can this still be considered your call?

jckgroup1:

Carveton

Carveton

Carveton

Is this Stock what the gamble?

How risky is entering the race today?

Timely analysis/ response much appreciated.

Gracias

OakPearl:


This is where a vibrant shareholders forum comes in.
But that aspect of our investment community has been polarized and watered down badly.
I remember the days of Sunny Nwosu and co in the 1990’s who would fight for shareholders rights and corporate activism to keep management of listed companies on their toes and instilling corporate governance.
All those things have been destroyed by brown envelop tactics.

yMcy56:

Overstated as how?
Has your bonus been added to your portfolio?

Raider76:


I think there should be a gov policy to make such companies list to grow the NGX, just like the Buhari gov got MTN to list.

Btw did you see them declaring N300b profit? If they were listed it will be loss they declare with all sorts of excuses like FX losses. The ways companies cheat investors and escape taxes is too much.

designking:


I have some units of it though very little... Was thinking of selling off those units

designking:

Won't the price drop? Given that the original owners are pulling out?