₦airaland Forum

Note:- This is a copious essay for intelligent minds written by Prof. Charles Soludo, and it is expected to appear in today's Thisday (http://www.thisdayonline.info/nview.php?id=182870). I got the full copy from Ukpaka Reporters ( http://www.ukpakareports.com/news.php?news_id=1383&type_id=3).


2011 Elections: Let The Real Debate Begin
Prof. Chukwuma C. Soludo, CFR, Sep 14 2010 05:46pm (5 Comments)

The 2011 general election will mark a watershed in Nigeria’s history. It comes immediately after Nigeria bids farewell to the first 50 years of political independence (and 96 years of existence as a country) and will usher in the set of leaders that will lay the foundation for the journey to the next 50 years. Like every other election all over the world, the 2011 elections in Nigeria should be mainly about the economy. As Bill Clinton once said, it is the economy, stupid! Put differently, sound economics ought to be excellent politics. But, have we even realized this?

Our first 50 years had a chequered history as we struggled to forge a nation out of the disparate nationalities. The first few years of independence with the regional economies as the driving force saw spectacular growth of the economy. With oil came a new political economy based essentially on consumption- distributional politics rather than production. So far more than $400 billion of oil rents have been spent with modest progress. We seem to be saddled with an oil resource curse and a political economy that emasculates the future. We have gone through series of development plans, programmes, visions, etc. On paper, some were far reaching. We have also had the courage to implement some radical reforms. But, without a holistic systemic change and commitment to sustain reforms, we often take three steps forward and four backwards.

It appears that the future is foggy and serious discussions about that future—the new Nigeria in the next 50 years has not begun. The debate so far is about who would be President or so, and not about what they will offer. I am afraid that we may again conduct elections without any serious issues being canvassed and ‘winners’ will emerge. Our politics has degenerated. In the Second Republic, I recall the robust debates relating to the alternative ideologies and manifestoes of the five political parties during the 1978/79 elections. I remember specifically listening to Obafemi Awolowo in 1979 explaining how much it would cost to implement free education at all levels and free medical care, and how he would reconstruct public finance to squeeze out the money to implement them.

Not anymore! There are no alternative visions, no ideologies and no programmes that offer the voters clear choices about their future. Even my political party, the behemoth PDP, has no clear road map for the country. It has remained a platform to grab power, and I am not sure how many party members can coherently explain what the party stands for. Some of us joined it in the hope of changing it from within, and we have not given up. That is a separate issue for another day.

I am a strong believer in Nigeria’s future and in its God given destiny to lead the black race. If Nigeria does not make it, sub Saharan Africa cannot make it. It is not by accident that God has chosen to make us Nigerians. It is our collective duty to realize God’s purpose for Nigeria. That is why some of us have elected to devote the rest of our lifetime to work for Nigeria’s future.

But Nigeria’s future cannot be taken for granted. The challenges are herculean, and the next four years are critical. Given the population growth rate and if you believe the last census figures, there will be 161 million Nigerians this year, and 212 millions in 2020. By the time a child born this year turns 50 years in 2060, there will be 650 million Nigerians. At current GDP and population growth rates, Nigeria will still be a developing country in 2060 (below $11,000 per capita income). At current rates, it will only be in 30 years time (2040) that Nigeria will attain the current South Africa’s per capita income. The tragedy is that the country has no implementable plan to steer a different outcome. Under the current political economy, the Vision 2020 will remain what it is—a beautiful dream! Neither the investment levels nor the productivity (given the decaying educational system and poor skills) required to realize Vision 2020 will happen.

For Nigeria to take a shot at 2020, the economy needs to be growing at about 14- 15% per annum (more than twice the current rates of 6-7%). Even with improved efficiency, this requires annual investment rates of more than 40% of GDP (higher than total earnings from oil). With the cessation of hostilities in the Niger Delta, and oil price rising to about $79, external reserves ought to be growing. Rather, external reserves are depleting precariously to about $36 billion currently, with weekly sales at the WDAS running into hundreds of millions of dollars. Private capital inflows have largely ceased. The capital market is comatose and capital flight is back with vengeance! With private saving rate of below 20%, public sector dis-saving (borrowing), and huge net capital flight, the numbers on the macro economy do not simply add up. Add to this the surfeit of liquidity and misalignment of basic prices and the conclusion is self evident: sooner or later, something will have to give!

As I ponder the future, I am deeply worried. As a consequence of deliberate choices made by public sector managers and the constitutional/structural bottlenecks, the economy cannot generate the required investment to secure prosperity for all. In spite of the heavy external debt of $34 billion and oil prices ranging between $25- $50 during the Obasanjo’s second term, we managed to grow the economy at about 6 -7% per annum (from average of 2.8% in the 1990s). We started saving for the rainy day when oil prices reached $35 and by 2007, despite paying $12 billion to write-off the Paris Club debt in 2006, we had saved about $22 billion as ‘Excess Crude’.

In the last few years, oil prices have averaged $70 to $85 per barrel. What has happened? We have spent the $22 billion saved under Obasanjo, and now massively borrowing at an alarming rate (domestically and externally) during a period of unprecedented oil price boom, and yet the economy remains static at 6-7% growth rate. Recurrent expenditure of the public sector has more than doubled since 2004, leaving very little for investment. Recall that during the global financial crisis, we took a deliberate decision to allow the Naira to depreciate as part of the strategies to mitigate the effects of the global crisis. Today, that effectively means that governments at all levels receive (in Naira terms) about 27% more revenue from oil receipts than would otherwise. Indeed, but for this exchange rate change under this circumstance, there would not be more than 11 state governments that can still pay salaries on a consistent basis. With massive government borrowing during a boom and paradoxically very low levels of public investment, the private sector is stymied into a trap. Who has the strategy to unbind this trap?

Effectively, we are repeating the worst forms of the mistakes of the late 1970s to early 1980s: accumulated huge debts and raised government consumption to unsustainable levels during the oil boom which we could not sustain during the slump and hence led to the inevitable SAP. Sadly, we are going through the same cycle again, and if the current trend continues, we are doomed to a worst form of SAP in the future. God forbid! As it is, the economy and the future of hundreds of millions of Nigerians are hinged on a life support of a temporary oil boom. Our economy is still driven by the volatile primary commodity sector—oil, gas, and agriculture. With poverty incidence at about 50%, and urban youth unemployment at over 20%, we are sitting on a time bomb. The issue is not if the oil price will crash, but when. If oil price falls below $40 tomorrow, the economy will come down on its knees, with catastrophic consequences. Surely, the oil price will sooner or later crash, but Nigeria has no contingency plan.

The good news is that Nigeria has all the potentials to be great. There are huge idle resources that can be put to productive use. With economy-wide capacity underutilization at about 60% and oil prices at unprecedented levels, broadly shared growth rate of about 15% is possible. This is where the debate needs to begin. Candidates and political parties need to outline their visions of Nigeria in the next 50 years and HOW they intend to rapidly create a broadly shared and sustainable prosperity. The debate must begin! Can fundamental results be achieved by tinkering with programmes or will major changes in the political structure and Constitution be required? It is time the prospective candidates roll out their agenda, and HOW they intend to finance them! Nigerians will no longer be contented with a plethora of platitudes and wish-lists. Each candidate must tell us how he/she intends to finance each programme, the deliverables and timelines. More specifically, we need to know where they stand on critical national issues, even if they have no concrete plans on them. This is a necessary element of a democratic process.

Below, we outline some of the issues/questions we need answers from the prospective candidates.

The first issue we need answers to is how the candidates hope to reconstruct our public finance and put it back on the path of sustainability. How can they rein-in the obtuse and rapacious federal bureaucracy in particular, and the state bureaucracies, balance our budget during this period of oil boom, and yet spend at least 40% of the budget on capital expenditure as required by the Fiscal Responsibility Act? Personally, I am not convinced that we need more than 10 ministries and 10 ministers at the Federal level. They should explain to us their contingency plans in case oil price crashes tomorrow. Candidates should also let us know their views on, and framework for, borrowing (when to borrow, for what, and how it will be paid back?). Without clarity on these issues, much of the talk about government providing power/electricity and infrastructure on a sustainable basis will remain a joke as funding will always remain a binding constraint. In other words, candidates should tell us their plans to shrink the domain of the public sector to free resources to enlarge the domain of the private sector--- to truly have a private sector-led, market economy. For example, I have always believed that company profit tax rate should not be more than 10% (down from the current 30% plus education tax of another 2%) especially at a period of oil price boom, and where the businesses provide their own infrastructure. For businesses to expand and create jobs, the tax rate needs to go down significantly. We need to debate this.

Second, Nigerians would like to know the plans of the candidates for reconstructing our political structures to create the new Nigeria with a new sustainable prosperity. Currently, we are running unitary-federalism, with a plethora of fiscally unviable states as the ‘federating units’, with the attendant wasteful duplication of bureaucracies all over the country. So far as everyone is spoilt with monthly allocations from oil rents, there is no incentive to recreate the prosperity engendered by the palm or cocoa plantations and groundnut pyramids of the old regions. Every village wants to become a state in so far as ‘allocations continue to come from Abuja to pay salaries’. Nigeria’s fiscal federalism seems to have its incentive system upside down, supporting a political economy based upon consumption- distribution rather than production. Should this continue?

Where do we stand on state creation? Should we create 8 states per zone as being proposed, or consolidate the existing ones into six regions with Abuja, Kano, Lagos and Port Harcourt as special territories as being proposed by some people? What do we do with revenues from exhaustible natural resources (oil, gas, solid minerals)? Some propose that we can create as many states as we want (perhaps until every village becomes a state), but that revenue from Federation Account should never be used for recurrent expenditure but only as matching grants to create wealth and productive capacity for present and future generations, such as only for infrastructure, security and education. Where do candidates stand on this issue? What kind of constitutional changes are required to create a functional fiscal federalism, appropriate devolution of powers from the centre to the states/regions, and ensure effective economic management? What is our plan for effective policing of the country to ensure security of life and property? Where do we stand on the proposal for state or regional police?

On specific sectoral issues, the questions are endless. Who has the strategy to achieve uninterrupted power supply over the 2011- 2015 period? Where is the strategy to ensure accurate population census with biometric data of every citizen? If the last census figure is correct, then Nigeria’s population is exploding without any plans for the children of today and tomorrow. Are we happy with the rate of growth of our population or will someone have the courage to propose a robust population policy? What is the magic wand to ensure that we have a free, fair and transparent electoral system where only votes count and all votes are counted? What is the new strategy to fight corruption? Where is the sustainable plan for the Niger Delta and the long term strategy for environmental sustainability of locations amenable to natural resource extraction? Since our current university system is a road to nowhere and producing largely unemployable graduates, candidates need to flesh out their plans to revolutionarise the sector for Nigeria to join the 21st century.

It is estimated that Nigerians have their wealth running into tens of billions of dollars stashed away outside the country, and capital flight has resumed. Who has the plans to reverse the trend? The Financial System Strategy 2020 (FSS 2020) was designed to make Nigeria Africa’s financial hub and an international financial centre by 2020. What is the commitment of the candidates to make this happen? How will the candidates address the various cries of marginalization by sections of the country, especially the South East? What are the plans for women and youths, as well as the physically challenged? How do we deal with huge but unrecognized national emergencies such as erosion and desertification?

Furthermore, the future depends on how we deal with the tripartite problems of poverty, urbanization, and unemployment. Candidates need to spell out how they intend to solve the pervasive poverty in the North (averaging over 70% compared to average of less than 35% in the South). To create high value-adding jobs and reduce poverty in the medium term require more than quadrupling of productivity in agriculture as well as mainstreaming of large-scale commercial agriculture. We need to hear the plans of candidates in this regard given the current irrigation level of less than 6%. More specifically, we need to hear from the aspirants how many jobs they can create over the four year period and the strategies to do so.

There is also the challenge of urbanization and urban renewal strategies. At about 5.3%, Nigeria’s urbanization rate is one of the fastest in the world, with the attendant urban decay, slums and urban unemployment, poverty and crime. What is the plan to stem rural-urban migration? In the medium term, what special strategies for the renewal of mega cities like Lagos, PortHarcourt, Aba/Onitsha, Abuja, and Kano which continue to receive the largest influx of youth population in search of non-existing opportunities? What are the strategies to provide safe drinking water to our population?

There are about 20 million housing deficit in Nigeria. What strategies do the aspirants have to unleash a housing boom and a mortgage system in Nigeria? Surely, this can create millions of jobs, and Nigerians need to know how.

Nigeria has one of the most inefficient ports in the world, and much worse than many other West African countries. What are the strategies to revolutionarise our ports and ensure that importers clear customs in 12 -24 hours over the next four years? Also where do the aspirants stand with respect to the proposed West African monetary union and common currency? Where do they stand with regards to the WTO and the Millennium Development Round, and the European Union’s Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) vis-a-vis the Everything but Arms initiative of the EU? What about the West African common tariffs vis-a-vis the plans for the manufacturing sector? If the aspirants believe that our foreign policy should focus largely on commercial diplomacy, how many missions abroad now make sense, and what kind of ambassadors do we need?

The questions and issues are legion. The essence of this piece is to provoke debate. The next 50 years will make or break Nigeria. Next year marks the beginning of the journey. The current players have a duty to lay a solid foundation for the future. As things are, that future cannot be guaranteed without a big struggle. Those who know, and who have the capacity to contribute to the struggle for a new, prosperous Nigeria must stand up now to be counted! Elite indifference to the political process is not an option. Since we have adopted the U.S. style of state primaries for the President, can we also adopt the U.S.-style debates in various states among the aspirants of the same party? When will the debate begin? The world is watching, and Nigerians are waiting for answers.

hahahahahaha . . .lol

MOBO44 in his elements . . . . My man I need more of your posts ,


BTW, where is Jaybee hiding your previous posts?

hahahahaha . . .  Some peeps are already deranged because of the mammoth crowd present at the Eagle Square . .
This is just the beginning.

Olaolufred:
Ken Nnamani is the only Igbo Politician I revered up till now.

If he is making a speech to sell Babangida, then I am hugely dissappointed.
The meaning would be,If his action is true, then the Igbos may not rule this Country as President.

My Observation: If Ken, the only Igbo Man standing could fall yakata like this, there is none to trust again from that arena.

Don't know what Informs his decision, but it appears that whether in cash or kind, any Igbo man is buy-able.

Sorry, not for abuse. but a bit of letting out the hurt of dissappointment.

Your post exudes that of a sick man . . .   You should be more concerned of the dismal performance of your revered brother, OBJ, from 1999 to 2007.
The rantings of your type are not new to the ears of Ndigbo.

coolbet007:
I am not suprised to see Ken Nnamani there. IBB gave him billions of naira to kill 3rd term, so what do u expect him to do?. The man is enjoying part of IBB's loot.

Ungrateful dunce . . . . .  Ooh, you just discovered that Ken Nnamani  killed the 3rd term agenda because he collected money from IBB.

Ike.M:
I got same message, i loved it and am happy we have someone who wants to be voted for, asking the real voters for vote.
It makes me proud to be a Nigerian. Most of the other contestants cannot not send sms, nor know what bulk sms is and most do not have email addresses.

So you will vote for him just because you recieved an SMS . . . Waves head in disappointment

KnowAll:
[size=14pt]Another howler by messers Sanusi, one of his protegees has just done a runner. I repeat please give the Original owners of the Banks their property, it does not matter who u put at the helms of affairs of this institutions, fraud would still be perpetuated.

It is better for the real owners to be mindful of the risk they want their busineses to undergo than for cowboys from outside the business to come in and pillage the place knowing that as far as they are concerned it is not their father's money.

We should remember and not forget that, despite all the negative press on Akingbola and Ibru they grew their Banks from a one branch family Bank into a listed Bank in the Stock Exchange with Branches all over Nigeria and West Africa. [/size]

I really concur with you . . . those banks should be handed over to the former directors.

I guess this Yoruba woman is one of those bank messiahs appointed by Sanusi to save the ailing banks. . . . .

They are waiting for their godfather, Tinubu, to make up his mind.

Onlytruth:
Okuko bere na ngige, okuko na egwu, ngige na egwu. A chicken perched on a role is dancing, the rope is also dancing.

The above adage reminds me of Chris Ngige. . . . . That was his mantra during those days he was fighting with his godfathers.

1.) Agadi nwanyi anaghi aka nka n'egwu omara agba.

2.) Mgbada dara ibi bu uru dimta.

Those state governors really need to consult Anambra state governor, Peter Obi, to advice them on how to manage their respective resources.

na_so:
GEJ should open his eyes and walk cautiously, there is nothing to celebrate here for now. In war deception is a key weapon. nuff said.

Better drill it into the skull of your political naivete brother. . . . . .

Please children desist from watching too much Nollywood love/romance movies . . .

Beaf:
[size=21pt]5000 policemen equates to just seven per local govt area![/size]

Ribadu, I hail! I'll wait and confirm this story, if it is true, his picture vacates my profile! Damn!

You will soon vacate that of your inept Uncle GEJ . . .

Nonsensical talk!! . . . Ribadu must have been rehearsing the campaign rhetorics his handlers have given him.
In this upcoming election, Nigerians are too wise to be bamboozled by such pedestrian promises.

hackney:
As long as people like you are still alive, that country has no chance.

So Beaf is one of them? . . . .

Let the political maneuvers continue . . . lol

Eziachi:
@Ilunguboy,

@Ilungunboy,
Shouldn’t you be concerned about your own problem instead wasting your energy advising Igbo people on what to do? Since when has interest of Igbo people become something to loss sleep over for you and your people?
It I said that “When a lion start advising an antelope on how to be safe in the jungle that antelope must watch his front and back”

Personally I don’t give a damn on who rules Nigeria from north to East but the fact remains, that[b] if Yoruba’s like you are all out dishing out advise to Ndigbo and no longer believed in their so-called zoning, why is it that non of you is a presidential candidate in this election? Or are you lot now saying that non you is capable after OBJ?[/b]

As for my IGBO brothers. Our best future is not in any forced fed one Nigeria, irrespective of who is in charge or future, but I can understand the current political bargaining chip.

As for Jonathan, whether he changes his name at the last minute to Nwa-okoronkwo, that won’t wash, I want Igbos who are willing and eligible to vote, do so to vote for based on the fact that interest of Igbo are served through his govt. All this sudden old East nonesense and Ebele as his middle won’t fly even with the most silly Igbo man.

Eziachi:
@ Mr Beaf,
One thing you have constantly kept on was quoting your father. Can you tell us how many times your father said to you, he and your kinsmen voted for Nnamdi Azikiwe all those years if not the northerner as their brother?
Or did this new found brotherhood old Eastern suddenly start?

And you kept saying that neither Biafra nor Nigeria asked you where you want go, but did your people stated to them what you wanted to be or become? Why should anyone invite you? Did your peoples invite anyone and they refused? Did you declare where you wanted to be just like the Ibibio or Efik by opening aligning with Biafra and the Ijaws with Nigeria?

tThe probelm Your people had was the fact that they were busy sitting on the fence, waiting to see where the river will be flowing first in the midst of life and death situaton and that is why probably both Biafra/Nigeria attacked you because, you had no stance, they don't know whether you are an enemy or a friend.

Thanks Eziachi . . I always enjoy your intelligent, wise and elderly inputs.

Beaf:
Witty reply? You're really funny and strange. You better free yourself from the habit of making up history, otherwise you'll keep getting it in your fcking eye.
I have said it so many times on NL that when Biafra invaded, my very own father was among their targets for execution, then when the federal troops came along he was saved from execution round two by his driver. Why that madness? Because we are minorities whose lives don't matter that every fcking basta'rd thinks they can run roughshod. It is the very same idiocy that drives you.

When I talk about SS, it is with first hand knowledge, cos I am from one of those old well respected families; I've known the kids of top shots from your area, Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba etc; while you are just some skunk making up history in some rat hole.

Please all Nairalanders should start clapping for[b] Beaf [/b] because he has licked the arse of many Igbo politicians' children . . What an air brain swine!!!

The[b] bolded [/b] line summarizes the pathetic mentality of the[b] low life [/b] whom I have been dignifying his rants. . . .  Imagine, bragging about the children of politicians you have met. . . .  It is obvious that you will definitely brag about knowing me, if I'm to reveal my identity to you. . . .

Obiagu1:
. . . and they expect rational Igbos to vote for Jonathan?
Someone has to blow my brains off and still can't get me to vote for GEJ. It'll never happen.

Please tell it to those foolish Igbos planning to sell their votes to Jonathan.

Kilode?!:
It is funny how fast the usual suspects got here

Do you people hold daily meetings to decide on which thread or topic to congregate on ?

@OP, you sure raised some vital points there.

**grabs popcorn to watch the tribal or, gy**

This dude just cracked me up . . lol

Beaf:
Sadly, you are talking crap again. 

What part did people from my area play in the war apart from getting invaded by both Biafra and the federal govt? People like you simply sit down, conjure up history and talk absolute bullocks.
Your micro brain broadcasts the falsehood that every SS ethnic group is the same and they somehow betrayed Biafra, cos the only way tribalistic fools like you can exist is by manufacturing history. The Nazi's polished the tricks of false history, and by studying them, we know where to look even before you turn the next ugly corner.

Who had an agreement with you? Neither Biafra nor Nigeria invited us to any meetings before both invading us, but now you sit down there pissing through your mouth, cos your brain is all the way up your arse.
Dude, walk into a bin and close the lid!

Plain gibberish . . . lol
You just sounded like the senile Edwin Clark!!! . . . . Please come again with a witty reply.

Passage of such anti-corruption bill would really help alot.

Beaf:
Did you watch a new comedy on TV?
So SS people are treacherous, but you who is attempting to sell your people for a loaf of bread are not? Na wa o!

Thats one of the reasons you guys are treacherous . To an average Niger-Deltan and the ilks of Edwin clark, truncating agreement and trust which has been in place since 1999 is the way to go. . . . Igbos are still aware of the Biafran and post Biafran antecedents of their so called Southern brothers; hence, no amount of blackmail will work this time around.

Beaf:
^
. . .Talking rubbish at random!
E be like say MetalGong4 don collect pay from IBB!

I think you are the one blathering away your energy trying to brush up the dismal record of Jonathan, and the treacherous history of SouthSouth peeps . . . . .

Solomon227:
@ metalgong

U are d ones working against Ndigbo interests indirectly. Every enlightened Indigbo should know the North has never trusted the SE and even when the SW was their sworn enemy and SE their allies they have always disappointed us by favoring SW at critical times.
If we are negotiating 2015 and we are doing that with IBB or Atiku, that is what I call 'Basket Mouth Open Mic Show'. In as much I am desirable of an ndigbo presidency even in 2011 I refuse to trust the Demons (IBB and Atiku) again and be disappointed at d end of the day. An IBB presidency is going  to b a life one and going by his antecedents will make sure his son succeeds him after his death on the thrown. Atiku has d same tendencies. For now, the only Northerner  I can believe his words is Buhari and unfortunately does not seem to have the resources to match IBB and Atiku outside the North.
Unless the present calculations change, for me and my Indigbo friends Ebele all the way

It is really funny when dumb outsiders try to advice Ndigbo, and at the sametime telling Ndigbo why they can never be the president. . . . .      It is only silly Igbos that would buy into your jaundiced, prejudiced , and pedestrian advice.

olafolarin:
IBB and Atiku's promise of installing an Igbo President come 2011 is just à political Fluke.[/b]This Same IBB promised Heaven an Earth on June 12 and what happened eventually?IBB has à Track-Record of broking promises.
The Situation is definitely Dicey and i Hope Ndigbo will Unite in supporting the right candidate.SE got it right in 1999 when they supported the "Grumpy" OBJ.And He compensated the Region with positions.
PDP Is Never my Party and i Don't Support zoning.
Ribadu,Saraki,Shekarau,Obi,Duke,and Fashola are more progressive candidates that understands the yearnings of the New Generation.IBB and their Generation have nothing to offer Nigerians except empty unrealistic promises.

You hypocritical propangandists are utterly delusional and out of touch with the political reality. Nobody (Northen politician) is talking about [b]installing an Igbo president, rather they are emphasizing that they would still adhere to the PDP zoning agreement when its the turn of the SouthEast zone, so long as Ndigbo support them to complete theirs which was truncated by Yaradua's death. . . . . This is clearly an honest politics which would benefit Ndigbo, and not the politics of abandoning the zoning agreement which is tantamount to treading the path of treachery.

Solomon227:
@ feradull

I pray thunder strikes all of u to death as u all celebrate the Devil on Earth. Your doomsdays are numbered

You must be a fool blathering away your energy . . . . . Just pray that the above rave wont be a boomerang for you.

jamace:
It is real ekwue. Wait until the dance starts and you will see utter betrayal by the same guys vommitting nonesense here.

Which betrayal are you talking about? There can never be any form of betrayal that would surpass that which Ndigbo have experienced in the hands of their so called Southern neighbours.