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TKB417's Presidential Election Analysis
https://www.nairaland.com/7575511/tkb417s-presidential-election-analysis

TKB417's Presidential Election Analysis
https://www.nairaland.com/7575511/tkb417s-presidential-election-analysis

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Paul Adefarasin @pauladefarasin

Friends, in the run-up to the 2023 elections, I implore you not to be swayed by mischievous posts, supposedly from me.

I have come across some random and unauthorized communications making the rounds that have been ‘stitched together’ by unscrupulous individuals who are unaware that by virtue of my office, I must remain non-partisan.

Please note that I will never ask you to cast your vote for a particular candidate. However, I will advise you to be mindful, such that whomever you vote for will set us on our way to a purposeful and prosperous Nigeria.

We will continue to emphasize the need for a leader with the right values, who will prioritize the development and growth of Nigeria and Nigerians. Someone who not only understands the assignment but can truly get the job done.

Most importantly, remember your voting decision is solely yours to make. I only ask that you do so responsibly.

https://twitter.com/pauladefarasin/status/1626681368229957641

Nomyth:
But I don't understand oh.


Can the super Falcons ever win a match outside of Africa?

Yes, if everything is done properly. We have beaten South Korea (2019), North Korea and Denmark (1999) at the World Cup.

nedu666:
All these polls and assumptions are a waste of time.

They are not a waste of time. They are premium entertainment. Entertainment is not a waste of time. It relieves stress and prolongs life.

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tkb417

https://www.nairaland.com/tkb417

https://twitter.com/tkb417

Previous threads.

Dele Sobowale: Atiku Will Win Nigeria's Most Disputed Election
https://www.nairaland.com/7566728/dele-sobowale-atiku-win-most

Jarus' Forecast Of 2023 Presidential Election
https://www.nairaland.com/7566708/jarus-forecast-2023-presidential-election

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The Classic Man @tkb417

This is my Nigerian Presidential Election analysis… The analysis will focus on Labor, APC, PDP, NNDP and others

I arrived at my conclusions based on the following

- Last election results pattern
- State Guvnor influences
- Tribal/Religious sentiments
- State of the Nation

The 6 zones under focus….

NE, SE, NC, SS, NW, SW

NorthWest

There are 7 States in NorthWest
Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto, zamfara, Kebbi

APC polled 72% of total votes in 2019… Buhari was on d ballot

Currently APC has 6 States out of the 7 states in their control

Based on current realities in NorthWest, Atiku and Kwankwaso also playing some big roles in how the numbers pan out

Labor 5.4%
APC down to 49.3%
PDP 32.3%
NNPP 11.9%
Others 1%

NorthEast

Just like in NorthWest… APC got 72% of total votes in 2019- The Buhari factor

Today, the 6 States are divided equally with 3 Controlled by PDP Guvnors: Bauchi, Taraba and Adamawa

APC: Gombe, Yobe and Borno

NorthEast seems to be a battle ground in 2023 with Lawan, Shettima, Zulum poised to take the battle to the Prince of Adamawa.. not forgetting the Binani effect

For NorthEast

Labor 1.8%
APC down to 48.4%
PDP 46.9%
NNPP 1.9%
Others 1%

North Central

Straight to the point here, not minding the codswallop u see everyday on Twitter Re: NC

North Central includes Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Niger, Plateau, Benue.. ill add FCT

5 of the States are controlled by APC Guvnors. Benue the only PDP State.

As it stands today

Benue is tipped to fall to Reverend Hyacinth Alia the APC candidate..

Labor: 19%
APC 49%
PDP 29%
NNPP 2%
Others 1%

SouthWest

Nothing has changed in SW since 2019.. Same numbers will be repeated

Labor: 10%
APC: 59%
PDP: 29%
NNPP: 1%
Others: 1%

SouthEast

Labor: 72%
APC: 12%
PDP: 15%
NNPP and Others: 1%

South South

Labor 40%
APC 29%
PDP 29%
NNPP and others 2%

The stories behind the numbers

In 2019 APC polled 55.60% of total votes

PDP did 41.22%

From closer look, APC has dropped numbers from 55% to about 45%

The Atiku Northern factor, the poor performance of Ahab and a few other factors ensured the decrease

The poll points to an APC rout.. 45.1% of total votes

PDP: 31.9%

Labor 17.3%

NNPP 4.7%

Others 1%

But wait for it..

What is instructive is, If PDP were United with Obi, Kwankwanso, Wike

The poll would be reading

APC 45.1%

PDP 53.9%

Others 1%

If the poll ends this way, its a Pyrrhic victory for APC

A combined opposition in the next election would most likely end APCs reign

Summaries from each zones

SE will post d biggest % win for any candidate with Obi posting 70% win

NorthWest as usual would account for about 10% of total votes cast in the election

Every election season, d Party that wins Kwara wins Presidential.. Its not changing this year

APC will win in 4 regions

Labor will take 2 regions

But the huge % win in SE wont help. The % of total votes cast from SE will be less than 3% (based on INEC data released so far)

The summary

To dethrone an incumbent, opposition needs to come together.

Another pointer

If the election were to hold in the South Alone.. Labor would coast to victory

This reminds us of CPC before the merger with ACN..

As at today Feb 16, 2023

The only path to victory for PDP is if APC pull out of the contest

The only path to victory for Labor is if we are looking for a Southern President

In 2027, if they come back together as a one big family, the possibilities are endless

Ire oh

https://twitter.com/tkb417/status/1626093778162397184