@ Easimoni
Thanks so far 4 your posts and candid advise.
Do u still think that ABC trans is worth it like advised some time back

Is there any clear cut way to analysing the intrinsic value of a stock

Why is it that some listed companies don't have their prices listed daily.whats the implication of these and what should one do regarding such stocks

@ Easimoni
Thanks so far 4 your posts and candid advise.
Do u still think that ABC trans is worth it like advised some time back

Is there any clear cut way to analysing the intrinsic value of a stock


Why is it that some listed companies don't have their prices listed daily.whats the implication of these and what should one do regarding such stocks

Pls oh can someone tell me why the price of wema is dropping everyday. I've got some shares there that I'm planning to sell but was only waiting for the price to appreciate further.

Pls I need candid advice, should I hold on or sell or plsssssssssss?

REZIGIRL:

Please oh can someone tell me why the price of wema is dropping everyday. I've got some shares there that I'm planning to sell but was only waiting for the price to appreciate further.

Please I need candid advice, should I hold on or sell or plsssssssssss?

Hold on. I've been burned by selling a stock before the results are listed. The whole market is going thru a bearish period, it's not just Wema or the banks. I own a lot of Wema shares and I will sit this one through. All the 2nd tier banks have exceeded earnings expectations on the way to POs. Wema should not get left behind.

All Wema holders; prayer and fasting this Friday! (just kidding)

enurayce:

@ Easimoni
Thanks so far 4 your posts and candid advise.
Do u still think that ABC trans is worth it like advised some time back

Is there any clear cut way to analysing the intrinsic value of a stock


Why is it that some listed companies don't have their prices listed daily.whats the implication of these and what should one do regarding such stocks

Phew. lots of questions!

ABC results were soooooooooo disappointing. I guess all those contracts and new facilities have not yet begun to payoff. Based on 1Q 07 results, the FY EPS should be ~ 14k. NOt impressive for a N3 stock struggling with growth. I'm going to have to see some PAT growth before I think about re-entering. I bought 300k units (at N4.20) when I was in love with it. Good thing I sold at N4 or I'd be crying now.

Intrisinc value: no real agreed way to calculate it. PE, PEG, ROE, ROA, PB are all ratios used to compare stocks to determine it's value but that value will vary according to valuation styles. Some people love PE much more than PB and vice versa. Most people are falling in love with CAGR, which is like a bank rate. I think Warren Buffet uses a variation of CAGR when valuing stocks but I stand to be corrected. All vlauation methods require some prediction of future earnings and those predictions are always wrong!

Dunno the answer to the 3rd question. Most likely there were zero trades that day on that stock and your broker decided to skip the blanks.

@ Easimoni
So whats ur take on buying ABC trans at N3 now

enurayce:

@ Easimoni
So whats your take on buying ABC trans at N3 now

I wouldn't do it. It's a N2.50 to N3.00 stock until they start showing good growth. No upside here until then.

@ easimoni
If a stock is not traded on 4 days on the exchange,whats the implication.

Where do u see ABC 4- 5 months from now

enurayce:

@ easimoni
If a stock is not traded on 4 days on the exchange,whats the implication.

Where do u see ABC 4- 5 months from now

No implication. There may be buyers and no sellers or sellers and no buyers. It means it's not a liquid stock and may be hard to sell/buy.

I don't know about ABC. I feel it may hang out at the N3 mark until they impress us with some good results.

@ Easimoni and all the other guru's

What's your take on Capital Oil?

I have about 200k units and still planning to double it (if it's available) but I have not read anything about it on this thread yet.
I have the feeling that the future is bright with Capital Oil. Or am I just dreaming?

Helo ma people!!!!!!!!!! Easimoni, u are da bum, a rare gem, I hope you are making money in despite the bearish atmosphere in our nascent market. Someone please tell me how long this market tumble will last 

The persistent dip in market indicators in recent times has constrained me to send this report to the all stakeholders of the Nigerian Capital Market. Kindly take some time to x-ray salient messages in the report. The index touched its 8 week-low @ 50,437.74 yesterday , a RED SIGNAL to investors, an indication of a bearish market. Analysis has revealed that most bank prices are overvalued, resulting in recent market correction. Permit me to say once again that expect funds from wherever, maybe the insurance funds tied down in the CBN escrow account or foreign hedge fund (A fund, usually used by wealthy individuals and institutions, which is allowed to use aggressive strategies that are unavailable to Mutual Fund) managers and even our highly capitalized banks move into the market ferociously, there may be a further depression in the market, hence I see no appreciable returns on investment in the secondary arm of the market within the last quarter of the year. My calculation revealed that about 7 public issues may hit the market between now and December 2007, about N500 billion is expected to be raised by these companies, the lion share of this should come through profit-taking by investors triggered by a sell-off on some stocks that have returned more than a 100%. A strategy that might work in this kind of market may be calculated speculation if there is anything like that, what market operators does is buy, for example Berger paints @ N7.00, sell @ N9.00, no brokers’ commission, total charges on buy & sell will be ~ 4%, the capital gain about 29%, net profit 25%, not too bad for a 2 weeks investment. You can even do a 15% speculative trading every week giving 60% returns in a month. Apart from this investment strategy three other options are:
1. BUY public offers and wait for certificates, @ least a 100% may be guaranteed.
2. BUY on the floor and HOLD for the LONG-TERM, this should be the investment motive for investors for now, we shouldn’t promise short-term gains experienced in the 1st half of 2007 as we watch new developments in the market. 
3. Shop for all private placements with SEC. this is a new window of investment which market makers have been exploring. A total of 10 private placements were approved by SEC last year from companies like Staco, Oaisis, Continental Re, Globe Re:, Sovereign etc… these stock have more than doubled their offer price most of which were issued @ a price below N1.00. Imagine me with 2 million units of Oasis @ 70 kobo last year, I would have sold @ N3.29 (its year high). This should yeild a NET profit of N2.5 million, in less than a year!!! For POs pls invest a heavy chunk on a very good offer, buying from the floor may warrant diversification due to price volatility.  

BREIF MARKET REVIEW
Yesterday, the All-Share Index dipped, yet again, for the 6th trading day in a row, by 0.91 % from 50,900.06 points yesterday to 50,437.74, the Market Capitalisation also dropped back to the N7 trillion mark as it closed lower by 91 basis points from N7.78 trillion in the previous outing to close at N7.91 trillion yesterday. Top 5 trades emerged from the banking and insurance sub-sectors. Afribank topped the activity chart with a traded volume of about 167 million units of shares worth a whooping N5.1 million exchanged hands in just 41 deals. It will be recalled that Afribank was placed on technical suspension during the month following the bank’s application to the NSE for a public offer, the price traded @ N30.49 throughout today’s proceeding. Other stocks on the top 5 trades were Sterling, FCMB, FBN and Firstinland. My analysis for today focuses on Sterling Bank, which stood 2nd on today’s activity chart. Sterling Bank is a merger of five medium-sized but reputable Nigerian Banks; Namely Indo-Nigerian Bank Ltd, Magnum Trust Bank, NAL Bank Plc, NBM Bank and Trust Bank of Africa Ltd. These banks, in September 2005, took a decision to merge into a single entity and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Sterling Bank Plc has accessed credit facility totaling $100 million (N127 billion) from the international financial market with AFREXIM Bank as the Lead Arranger, also, the bank is already in partnership with a French bank Credit Agricole Asset Management (a subsidiary of Credit Agricole of France) to manage Nigeria’s external reserve. Asset base, in the third quarter result for 30th June 2007 released on the 1st of August, stood at N137.34 billion, improved by about N24.04 billion or 21.22% from full year’s N113.29 billion of 2006. Of this figure, the bank’s loans and advances portfolio worth N50.13 billion was the most significant contributor to this pool, representing 36.50% of the bank’s total assets, better also than full year’s N38.94 billion. With an enhanced capital base from the facility, Sterling may not visit the market to further shore up its share holders’ funds on the short run, a major concern though is the gearing status the bank now has which will make the bank hard-pressed to sustain their earnings & ROI (return on investment) to cover up for interest charges and still pay reasonable dividend by full year. Sterling appears to be a GOOD BUY for the LONG-TERM.


My caveat still holds. BUT, invest CAUTIOUSLY,

easimoni:

Hold on. I've been burned by selling a stock before the results are listed. The whole market is going through a bearish period, it's not just Wema or the banks. I own a lot of Wema shares and I will sit this one through. All the 2nd tier banks have exceeded earnings expectations on the way to POs. Wema should not get left behind.

All Wema holders; prayer and fasting this Friday! (just kidding)

@ easimoni, thanx for that candid advice. I'm impressed with the way u respond to pple's questions with so much patience. Keep it up.

crazyT:

@ Easimoni and all the other guru's

What's your take on Capital Oil?

I have about 200k units and still planning to double it (if it's available) but I have not read anything about it on this thread yet.
I have the feeling that the future is bright with Capital Oil. Or am I just dreaming?

Very little info about Capital oil but market sentiments favour them. Being looking for the stock since only God knows when but not available. Same with Transnationwide Express. You fit sell some give me?? (LOL)

Aylala2002, well guess reality is dawning in people that the market is mainly for the long term. All the short term gains are not sustainable.

Yes you are having corrections with many still to come. However, fundamentally sound stocks will still hold their own. If there is any stock out there with good future in term of FUNDAMENTALS, flour mills will be my top pick.

On private placement, be very careful. Firstly, there is hardly any end date! Globe Re did a private placment that was to close Sept 2006. As at August 2007, the document are still being hawked around. Same thing happened when Platinum did the private placement. One year after, they were still collecting money. Same thing happened to IGI and Transcorp. For private placement you must be ready to be locked in for a minimum of 3years!!!! Those that did IGI private placment are yet to get certificates. Even for Oasis and co that are listed, you need to ask who are those selling? People yet to receive certificates? After receiving certificates, you still need to get it verified and lodged in CSCS. Well, expect the registrar to delay that. So for Continetal Re, Oasis etc, what you are seeing are 'potential profits'. Hardly will you see anyone that bought those private placements who has received its certificates.

For insurance companies, you need to be aware of the risk that some of them may not meet up with the recapitalisation programme. Remember that some people bought private placment of Assurance Bank. What of those that bought PO's of Trade Bank and All States Trust Bank? People need to FULLY understand the risk associated with their investment decisions. Many people are just gambling and they will surely get their fingers burnt.

Definitely, you will not get the kind of returns you get in the first half of the year in the second half. Water definitely will find its level. The market will still come alive with more Pension Fund. Once the CBN releases the insurance funds then expect a flurry of activity. This is the time to start to take positions in fundamentally sound stock with track record of good performance. For those buying stocks just because they gain 5% everyday without any fundamentals, it is in this bearish market that you know that investment is not a gamble! Try selling wire and cable and see the response of your broker!

@ easimoni,
thats the spirit dont give up on wema. there was a report this morning in the vanguard about wemas upcoming p.o and the MD advised people to buy wema now cos when the result hits, the price is gonna go haywire. lets hope and pray.
thanks for the intercontinental advice. with this bearish market, im getting confused as to what to buy right now, u see im a new investor(bout three months old) and i dont know any other market but the bullish one. these are what im thinking right now, pls tell me what u think.
c&i leasing; with that forecast eps of 66k, it should be good even in a low p/e ratio market.
crusader; good result and full year should be better.
wema, nig-germ, and oceanic/intercontinental for the long long term.
i know flour mills is very good, but the price is kinda high and hence margins should be low.
holla back.

shigidi:

@ easimoni,
thats the spirit don't give up on wema. there was a report this morning in the vanguard about wemas upcoming p.o and the MD advised people to buy wema now because when the result hits, the price is going to go haywire. lets hope and pray.
thanks for the intercontinental advice. with this bearish market, im getting confused as to what to buy right now, u see im a new investor(bout three months old) and i don't know any other market but the bullish one. these are what im thinking right now, please tell me what u think.
c&i leasing; with that forecast eps of 66k, it should be good even in a low p/e ratio market.
crusader; good result and full year should be better.
wema, Nigeria-germ, and oceanic/intercontinental for the long long term.
i know flour mills is very good, but the price is kind of high and hence margins should be low.
holla back.

Thanks for the info on wema. i checked it out myself.
Its very logical and i always thot they'd release a good result because all forces are on their side.
FCMB is currently selling at 17 and their situation is similar but might not be as attractive as wema. both going for po, fcmb might even have a lower eps if wema's result is as good as we expect.
About a bearish market, relax, you are on the right track, @ least i know you use sound judgement to make choices on fundamentals, good business, good eps, pe, and u ask whenever u are at crossroads. Bear market is like a heavy rain or storm, it won't damage severely houses with good foundation. in stock market, the foundation is fundamentals. Watch the market for a few mo days b4 buying, you might well get some of those stocks u listed cheaper. its not how long u've been in the market that matters, its your attitude towards learning and becoming a better and more intelligent investor that matters. enjoy bro,

Yeah Wanaj0, y'right, nice one. But I think most of the quoted insurance companies should meet-up with the recapitalization requirement. The quack ones are some of the once not quoted. Guess some coys are quoted cos they've gat some stuffs to hide,

The Wema Story from Vanguard

http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/cover/august07/23082007/f323082007.html

Fingers crossed everyone.

helo people, my dear Mr aniefiok, your profession seems 2 me interesting, but educate the house more on the offline trading, still looks like puzzle to me in particular, sure you know we are still trying to build an effective online trading system in Nigeria. With the off-line stuff, are you taking us backward, somebody pls correct me if i am talkin trash here.

From the trading floor, there seems to be a further depression judging by the slash in the prices of some highly capitalised stocks. The index figure may have closed flat but the market cap closed lower going by the data obtained from NSE. Today’s top 5 trades emerged from the banking and mortgage sub-sectors, with 4 banking stocks on the list. FCMB topped the activity chart with a traded volume of about 62 million units of shares worth a whooping N1.12 billion exchanged hands in 356 deals The banking stock opened today’s trade @ N17.32 to close @ N18.10, the trading pattern ranged between N18.14 and N16.82 representing today’s high and low respectively as the share value firmed by 4.50% or N0.78 in absolute value. Other stocks on the top 5 trades were Wema, Sterling, Firstinland and UNHomes. Our stock for today focuses on FCMB, the most active stock for the day. First City Monument Bank (FCMB) and HSBC of France recently signed a private placement structured debt deal for US$100 million. As one of Nigeria’s leading universal banks supplying investment, corporate and consumer services, FCMB plans to use this facility to contribute towards project financing in the real estate and energy sectors, as well as to focus on the expansion of consumer lending. With FCMB’s recent focus on retail finance, a new growth trajectory has been created, making it one of the fastest growing banks in Nigeria in terms of assets, deposits, profitability and customer acquisition. The recent stampede for the bank’s shares on the floor of the NSE may not be unconnected with the public speculation that the bank could declare mouthwatering dividend or bonus issue and also bearing in mind that FCMB is set to visit the market as shareholders have given the nod for the board to raise more funds apart from the N10 billion direct foreign equity investment into FCMB by a U.K. based equity fund. The third quarter result for the period ended January 2007 shows the bank recorded a profit before tax (PBT) of N4.47-billion for the current financial year. This represents a 112 percent increase over profit before tax (PBT) figure of N2.11 billion recorded in the corresponding period. FCMB could be given a fair valuation of N24.00 on the long term with a projected EPS of N0.68 based on a forecasted PAT of N6.8 billion in April 2008 and a forward PER of 26.62.

Someone pls fault my valuation if i am wrong

Seun please check your server or something

hello all,

internet spoil 4 ma house ooo, even if nobody miss me

back to biz

@ ayala,
funny enough i just placed an order with my broker to buy me 500,000 units of STERLING BANK on monday so we could see the price it ends tommorrow.

i am looking at the fact that if they do a PO as i read the MD say a while ago, they shoul at least hike the price to about N15 and i tell myself that if this does not work,
i would just turn it into a long term investment

I have asked thid question before so pls can i get your candid advise, "make my money no go catch fire"
temmie, easimoni (i asked u guys a while ago), oga frank, shidigi et al
pls help me out here cause even if i make only N3 on each stock, it beats the hell out of the prevailing interest rates

thanks all

pls answers ooo

At all the gurus in the house
What do you guys think about Dangote Flour going on private placement? If they failed to reach a "fair price" with the SEC could that be because they are trying to fix an overly exorbitant price that the SEC disagrees with. In this case, is the SEC our big brother looking to make sure that we dont get burned? More importantly, does the SEC conduct its own research into these companies to determine a "fair price"? MOST IMPORTANTLY, how do we get our hands on these private placement shares? Especially if one is not on the shores of mother Nigeria

Guys i need some help here. Pls dont blame me, i've tried to find the sources online but just cant get anything to give accurate info and the peeps around here are confused cos one person says one thing and the other says another. . . we are just very confused in London!

Zenith bank declared dividends and bonuses, initially i heard 1 for every 4 shares and a dividend of N1. Now i'm hearing 1 for every 5 shares and a dividend of N1.10!
Can someone please put me in the right direction.

Many thanks as u do so.

@ Whitelexi - You got it right first time around: 1 for 4 and N1 dividend.

whitelexi,
Zenith has already done a 1-for-4 and also gave N1.00 dividend. Second gist is wrong.

easimoni:

whitelexi,
Zenith has already done a 1-for-4 and also gave N1.00 dividend. Second gist is wrong.

Omoba3:

@ Whitelexi - You got it right first time around: 1 for 4 and N1 dividend.

Much Appreciated

Easi: You are breaching your own security protocols. I'll send you an email to explain.

THANKS ALL,
THIS FORUM ENABLE US IN DIASPORA TO HAVE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION ON VIABLE INVESTMENTS OPPORTUNITIES BACK HOME, ONCE AGAIN THANKS ALL FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS

BBH INVESTMENTS,LONDON

BBH:

THANKS ALL,
THIS FORUM ENABLE US IN DIASPORA TO HAVE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION ON VIABLE INVESTMENTS OPPORTUNITIES BACK HOME, ONCE AGAIN THANKS ALL FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS

BBH INVESTMENTS,LONDON

Is that BBH as in Brown Brothers Harriman?

you're most welcome

@ Easimoni, Ayala, Temmie10 and all the other guru's

I have asked this question earlier with no responce, now the question again
What's your take on Capital Oil?


I have about 200k units (bought @ 0.33kobo) and still planning to double it (if it's available) but I have not read anything about it on this thread yet.

I have the feeling that the future is bright with Capital Oil. Or am I just dreaming?

Capital Oil? No offense but I had to go to NSEPRO just to check it really existed.

No idea! What info do you have about them?