₦airaland Forum

Of course there would be a lot of debate -- and that's just one more reason to avoid. If it were a sound investment, that would be clear and there would be no hot arguments about it take dangote sugar for instance.

The reverse could also be the case. Most high growth stocks tend to be unpopular initially, but gather momemtum as the fundamentals become more acceptable to the 'general' investing public.  So whilst there are risks - real and percieved, some may view this as an opportunity.

At the point when all the indicators are mature enough to attract the fundamentals-driven investors, the intrinsic value of the company will already be reflected in the share price.

This is the scenario I'm certain will play out,  and you may quote me on this - 

-Ndi-Okereke steps down as Chairman sometime after IPO.
- A new President takes office in Nigeria and soon affirms his support/indifference to TransCorp. Better things to do with his time than politically motivated insunuations,
- TransCorp exceeds most pre-IPO projections, projects dividend payment in two years, market reacts favourably.
-  Announcements that "new" partnerships formed with foreign oil firms to develop oil blocks. Quick turnaround projected. Again, market reacts.
- Mtel increases capacity, adds 5,000+ new lines, embarks on extensive promo to include free calls. Market share starts to creep up slowly, shares follow in tow, 
- Nitel changes pricing structure (especially for SAT-3), increases capacity, leverages existing assets to increase revenue.

All these will be pushed to the press and will reflect positively on the company. Note that perceptions couldn't be worse than it  is now, and sentiments have everything to do with share price of quoted companies on the xchange.

However, for those averse to the current 'risk' profile of TransCorp, my advice is to wait for 1 - 2 years when Transcorp will have a track record and EVERYONE views it favourably, at which point  you may consider buying @ N40 - N45 per share.

Food for Thought - - - -

When I read the news that Mubadala will be acquiring a highly lucrative spectrum license for $400 million, what struck me was how mute everyone has been. Is it a fair deal? Could there be other Nigerian players behind the scene?. But no.  No comment.  Afterall, it's a foreign owned company, hence it's generally ok. Had a visible Nigerian company / entity put this deal together,  everyone would have cried foul,  The manipulation of minds by our semi-literate politicians and elites would have gone into full gear,  a programme of disinformation via the press would have been commissioned , 

A foreign company tried to buy Nicon Hilton for $50 Million four years ago. They won the bid, but couldn't come up with the cash. No comment. Any price is right for a foreign domicled company. TransCorp paid $105 million two years later, and that was suddenly classed  a giveaway.

In a strange way, I can't help but wonder if we really are hung-over from slavery.  We are certainly in self-destruct mode. I watch the do-or-die attitude amongst our politicians with trepedation. I watch the desperate pursuit of power and money by our elites, even at the expense of the survival of our nation, and wonder,  I wonder. . . . .

So what's the 'Igbo' reference meant to suggest, I'm a little lost on the relevance of that.

Anyway, is this meant as a genuine question or a joke?

I will implore you take
care of the body and soul first before burdening your self with mundane issues like
Transcorp and IPO

Very true. I had previously stated that this IPO, or any for that matter, is not for everyone!!

We all should understand the type of investors we are before venturing out. That TransCorp is risky is no news so lets stop flogging this topic. All of this is clearly stated in the IPO prospectus.

A friend of mine sometime back bought a stock for 42 cents, despite EVERYONE (including myself) telling him how desperately poor that decision was. How ALL the fundamentals showed the company would fail. How there was no descernable history. How the dot com bubble was about to blow up in his face.  In 1.5 years when he sold, the shares were selling for $2.10.

The difference between people like that and the rest of us is they thrive on risk because of the potential returns, even if the likelyhood of loss is also big. They see with their minds and not their eyes. Their minds are primed to see beyond the surface, where the visibilty of the average joe blogg stops. They don't play 'safe'. That's the difference between the 4% that make up the rich in the world and most of the other 96% that will throw companies like TransCorp in the dustbin.

That's why he is a $ millionaire (and the likes of Branson, Trump etc are billionaires), whilst the rest of us wallow in mediocrity, in the relative safety zone of work until I retire @ 60 (or die) and get a pension mentality.

Let's not condemn risks just because we lack the guts to take them. Let's not condemn risks because our stock market investments are driven strictly by fundamentals / technicals.

There are a select few extremely successfull investors who thrive and flourish on these 'risks'.

As stated in my previous post, here are the reasons I believe Intercontinental is a good buy -

- Projected PE ratio is amongst the lowest in the sector, together with the likes of Diamond bank.
- Profit Before Tax, Profit After Tax and Gross revenues for 3rd quarter have increased more than
100% compared to last year.
- Only recently trading at around IPO price of just over 13 naira.
- Project Dividend yield and EPS is amongst the highest in the sector.

I may be wrong, but I have a good feeling on this one.

Yeah, I agree with the Diamond, GTB analysis.

I also think InterContinental will be a surprise for Q1, EPS, PBT and PAT would increase significantly from last year.

also is the share worth keeping as it has failed to double it size its almost a year now

I had to laugh when I saw this  . You know a stock market is hot when you expect to double your investment in less than one year!!

I can't imagine anything near this expectation in the UK, US or Canada!

To answer your question, I believe Zenith is a good stock to keep. I have a feeling they'll issue bonus shares and maybe higher dividend payout this year.

That should see the share price go above 30. (BTW, I expect UBA / Zenith to be above 30 by mid 2007).

Good luck.

@LoverBwoy

People keep waving the patriotic flag as if buying into a coy set up partly with embezzled funds makes u patriotic

-

Please share this "embezzled" funds info you obviously possess with this forum. Maybe we'll learn something from your aparent inside knowledge, because as far as I can see from the prospectus, the source of funds has been made quite clear.

It's not surprising how people choose to apply popular sentiment on issues as serious as this. You either consider an investment a risk worth taking or you don't, in which case you stay out. In fact you could come up with an argument about the stock market and capitalism as a whole. There is the Cuban socialist model to consider etc etc.  But no point bad mouthing a company you know nothing about, or pass judgement without the facts. You may choose the Sun newspaper as your source of financial information, again that's your entitlement.  There are lots of 'safe' investments out there with predictable returns, mutual funds being one of them. I strongly encourage you to put your money there and stay out of TransCorp.

In my opinion, TransCorp is certainly not for everyone. Some people at least attempt to look beyond their immediate horizon, others base conclusions on extremely simple, fundamental and populist analysis. That is a major difference between Warren Buffet and warren joe lower class.

A wealth creating mindset can neither be taught on this forum nor in the linear education model of a  university/sec school classroom.

@ Adcoline,

Every point you've raised here have been flogged on this forum extensively. BT is managed by BT, Ndi Okereke will not be chairman for ever, if at all she is breaking any rules.

One main reason why some people become millionaires as investors whilst others remain stuck in the middle/lower classes is that for some, a glass is half full whilst for the rest, it is always half empty.

But in all of this 'confusion' I see opportunity. By the time TransCorp have sailed all these hurdles and the company is on the home run, the stock will probably be N70 then.

Please play 'safe', minimise your 'risk' and invest then when all your concerns would have been addressed. Meanwhile, continue to invest in your regular stocks - Cadbury, Union bank, Nestle etc

Depth of the Capital market is always going to be a consideration, but I'm convinced it's the need to retain complete control that is the basis for their decision not to expand ownership to Nigerians.

Whilst there is nothing wrong with a liberalized economy that strongly encourages FDI, I'm glad that Nitel / Mtel is owned and managed by Nigerians with a clear vision. This will also help mitigate capital flight.

I have to say I'm sometimes dismayed at our tendency to undermine our very own. TransCorp deserves our support, if for no other reason than the fact that it is a Nigerian owned entity with a commendable value proposition that will benefit Nigerians.

There are so many foreign owned companies in Nigeria that are here strictly for the bottom-line with no strategic interest in the development of our nation, yet we'll sooner dole out awards to these companies than condemn  them in anyway. Until it becomes Nigerian owned.

As far as investments go, Nitel has a strategic advantage in it's asset. If effectively leveraged, I see no reason whatsoever why it will not prosper with time. Agreed, Mtel has some catching up to do,  but the target is realistic. Even a 15% - 20% market share in two/three years will be a qualified success. 

I believe this is achievable.

@ Nairamar,

I too followed the Ariba experience quite closely (as I was heavily involved consulting in these sector in Europe and North America), and can offer one fundamental difference between Ariba-Corp and Trans-Corp.

Ariba, was a start-up supply chain/ Supplier Relationship Management,  End-to-End spend solutions provider with relatively low asset and application base compared to the establised players in the sector - Oracle, PeopleSoft, i2 Technologies, SAP etc. These companies had advantage of leverage that companies like Commerce One and Ariba simply didn't.

Nitel on the other hand, has an impressive asset column in Mtel, Nitel, in a sector that is perhaps the fastest growing in Nigeria, and indeed, Africa.

What was clearly lacking in Nitel/Mtel was effective management. So take a look at the management profile and blueprint of TransCorp and do the maths.

Has anyone tried to figure out why MTN, Globalcom, Celtel are not on the Nigerian Capital Market?  The potential for returns in this sector is huge, especially given the debth of the Nigerian market. I'm bulishly optimistic that after turn-around of Nitel/Mtel, perhaps in 3 years time, it will be a N50 - N100 stock.

Let's put aside the overstated political exposure of this company, it's unlikely to affect it's long-term prospects.  The emphasis should be on the latent assets, management and opportunities that can be exploited.

I've done a little more reseach and the following growth stocks come up high on the list for 2007 -

WAPCO -
NB -
Diamond Bank

The fact is that many people, rather than be objective,  base their views on attention grabbing headlines - championed by tabloids like the Sun newspaper and commentators whose intentions are dubious at best.

But this ignorance creates avenues for those objective enough to identify trends and position themselves with emerging oportunies.

Therefore, whomever chooses to can idle away on the side of mediocrity at their own expense.

I invested in TransCorp during the private placement and was pleasantly suprised at the returns.

Before I invested, I heard one prediction of gloom after another. As soon as they listed successfully, same doubters scrambled and are still scrambling for TransCorp shares.

I have come to appreciate that different people react to risk in different ways. Whilst most people are risk averse, some understand that risk can be diminished by a deep understanding of the terrain in which you operate.


My advice for the doubters out there - Invest In TransCorp IPO and you will not regret it. Even if the AC, ANPP were in power, neither Buhari nor Atiku will touch TransCorp even if they could.

OBJ's, interest is already, or will shortly be divested. 200 million Naira is insignificant given the value of this company. There are so many more bigger fish in TransCorp.

I foresee significant capital appreciation of TransCorp shares this year, although dividend payout will take a while. So if you invest for dividend, you may be best served in Zenith, GTB, Dangote etc shares.

2006 has been a fantastic year for many investors in the Nigerian stock market, , Oceanic, First bank, UBA, WAPCO, Ashaka, TransCorp, GTB  to name a few.

Some investors where more successful at predicting this trend than others, and therefore, benefited the most from their forsight.


So now that 2007 is upon us,  which stocks, in your opinion, are the 'must have' , if we are to maintain this momentum.


For me, I think WAPCO, Ashaka, UBA, Dangote, TransCorp, NBL ,


Any takers?

I had been planning a significant (by my standards at least!) investment in dangote sugar of approx N10M, but have been advised by my broker to give it up, that the shares will certainly be oversubsribed.  Unless offcourse I'm prepared to have the excess returned down the line. I'm not prepared to tie my money down in this fashion.

Someone did suggest the use of varying names, but I don't want to get into all of that especially as I'm not based in Nigeria.

Anyone with ideas on how to increase the chances of full allotment?

For me, TransCorp represents a medium to long term investment, and I've had no reason to regret my decision to invest in the IPO.

My investment has more than doubled and l have to say the returns have greatly inspired me to raise my stakes in the Nigerian stock market.

Also, I have no intention of dumpting the shares just yet, I'm willing to ride the stormy waves for another couple of years. I still hold that the share price can touch N13 by this time next year.

Danmasani  I'm with you on that one, I work in an establishment where risk management is a by-word and compliance is a must.

Disclosing my nationality, often I get the kind of reaction that leaves a lot to be contemplated. Some even make you feel like you need to be apologetic for being Nigerian. Ghanians get much more respect than we do in the UK, despite our characteristically endless soundbites of 'heartbeat of Africa', 'Giant of Africa'.  The old guard have taken our nation to the precipiece, yet continue to dominate and manipulate through the press, newspapers which they own - directly or indirectly.

They can shout as loud as they want, complain of persecution through these cynical media outlets, but justice is sure to take it's turn and dimunitive Ribadu is our best hope at this time.

Under the military, force is brought to bear on critics and enemies of the 'state', real and imagined, whilst corruption is nurtured and allowed to flourish (ditto IBB).

On the other hand, the EFCC's battle is against financial crimes, affecting both private/public sectors and individuals.

Whatever methods are applied in the war against this cancer is welcome, as long as it achieves it's results of reducing corruption in our polity is more than welcome.

Nations like Singapore had similar problems. A new leader comes in, locks up all 'the usual suspects' via extra-judicial means amidst an outcry of persecution by the crooks in their land, today Singapore is a leading Asian tiger.  Ghana has their own brand of cleansing. In China, it's the death penalty for curruption. Needless to say that China is the fastest growing economy in the world today (I believe will eclipse the US in 5 years). So, economic growth goes hand in hand with the fight against curruption.

And we sit at home and talk of Persecution. The biggest beneficiaries of this culture of graft and thrift  are the ones bent on maintaining the status quo, and therefore are the most vocal critics of the EFCC.

I thought I'd contribute briefly to this thread ,

First bank is now readily available so I don't know what your stockbroker is on about, The stock market have been bearish (decline) this week with many investors selling to take their profit. First bank shares dropped from N45 to N39 as at COB today. I like Union Bank shares .(I also bought some), but I'll invest in the following stock as I believe they are currently underpriced:-

Access bank
Oceanic bank

First bank will always be a good buy. This is a good time to buy as most stock are now less expensive compared to a few weeks back. I live abroad but trade via my stock broker in Nigeria. BGL, IBTC, SecTrust and CIL are very good and dependable.

Lets lay of OBJ's farms.  Whatever the source of start-up capital, we all know where he has put it and to good use too (It could have been sitting quietly in Switzerland out of prying eyes like Atiku, IBB, Danjuma have done). OBJ farms employs hundreds of Nigerians, contributes to our national GDP. Besides like Odeku stated earlier, he has done a great deal in his second coming and deserves some commendations, his shortcoming not withstanding.

On the other hand, IBB, Atiku and the likes of them leave a great deal to be contemplated. These men are major league crooks, manipulative and secretive to the point of distraction. Dollar billionaires without a clear line of business. Despite the noise with TransCorp, it still stands as one of the most open transactions in the national privatisation process. TransCorp acquired their oil block through a public bidding (where we all know transcorp paid the most for their blocks) so please get the facts right before joining the bandwagon of critics.  

The fact that the likes of Atiku, Danjuma, IBB acquire oil blocks for next to nothing and flog off discretely to American and Chinese companies for billions of dollars through front companies I would have thought would be of greater concern to us,

We have this tendency to focus on irrelevance whilst the obvious stares us in the face. We really do need to open our eyes and elevate our thinking,

Lets lay of OBJ's farms. Whatever the source of start-up capital, we all know where he has put it and to good use too (It could have been sitting quietly in Switzerland out of prying eyes like Atiku, IBB, Danjuma have done). OBJ farms employs hundreds of Nigerians, contributes to our national GDP. Besides like Odeku stated earlier, he has done a great deal in his second coming and deserves some commendations, his shortcoming not withstanding.

On the other hand, IBB, Atiku and the likes of them leave a great deal to be contemplated. These men are major league crooks, manipulative and secretive to the point of distraction. Dollar billionaires without a clear line of business. Despite the noise with TransCorp, it still stands as one of the most open transactions in the national privatisation process. TransCorp acquired their oil block through a public bidding (where we all know transcorp paid the most for their blocks) so please get the facts right before joining the bandwagon of critics.

The fact that the likes of Atiku, Danjuma, IBB acquire oil blocks for next to nothing and flog off discretely to American and Chinese companies for billions of dollars through front companies I would have thought would be of greater concern to us,

We have this tendency to focus on irrelevance whilst the obvious stares us in the face. We really do need to open our eyes and elevate our thinking,

Feelers already indicates that the list soon to be published by the EFCC includes the likes of IBB, Dalhatu, Wushishi, Etiebet, Wada Nas, Ikimi, Danjuma, Akhigbe and other criminal minds, friends and foes of OBJ.

The humble amongst these (perhaps like Ani?) will cut deals and spare they and their families further grief, whilst we can expect no such humility from the likes of IBB, Wushishi, Adulsalami, Ikimi, Dan Etete, Danjuma etc. BTW, did you see how Danjuma recently went to court to contest the ownership of the oil block he owned, but withdrawn by the FG? The block in question is allegedly valued at over $1.5 Billion!! Rather than question how he acquired this block in the first place, our extremely vocal but narrow minds where more concerned with the 'political persecution' theory.

But well meaning Nigerians know that the noise about political persecution is aimed at self-preservation. This dying breed will be made extinct sooner or later. Better they humble themselves, own up and return their loot to the people, be sent away and asked to sin no more, or wait to meet their violent fate when this opportunity is long gone!!

Odeku and my fellow progressives on this forum, truth is that for some, any discussion on EFCC would always descend to an argument of political witchhunting. This is not co-incidental, the most currupt people in our country are either former or 'wanna-rule(loot)-Nigeria-at-all-cost' politicians, so die-hard supporters of these criminal minds are sure to do their darn best rubbishing Ribadu's good work.

I found this artical on Ribadu and EFCC today in the Independent, It should make good reading for those who care,

http://www.independentngonline.com/news/92/ARTICLE/9609/2006-08-24.html

Opposition of IBB and Atiku to 3rd term should not attract automatic credit of moral high standing to them. The opposition was driven entirely by their own ambitions. How else would he, Abubakar Atikrook, have realized his God giving destiny of presiding over Nigeria and all her oil!! This is the only man in the history of the world to convert 31.000 naira to 3 billion US dollars without a clear line of business.

He is just as bad, if not worse than IBB. The other day I saw his sponsored newspaper propaganda of how he "rejected" 100 million transcorp shared offered him. This is the height of cynicism. The reason he rejected the shares, if at all, is that Transcorp is way to 'open' for him to be involved in. Why should he put his stolen money in a company that will be open to prying eyes. Besides with the billions he has saved up in Switzerland, why should he bother with a registered company and all the exposure and 'grief'

Please, if we do not have the facts, lets stop commenting. Atiku's incredible greed is legendry. You'll be amazed at the number of oil blocks he has acquired for next to nothing and passed on to US multinational corporations for billions of dollars. This is fact. Whilst I'm not a major OBJ fan, it's tiring hearing the endless condemnation of OBJ and his farms, yet mute on the stupendiously rich but extremely secretive and manipulative politicians like Atiku masquerading themselves as saints and saviour of the people, spare us please!!

Oxygen re-iterates the point we've all been making, I use the word reckless inpunity to describe the attitude of our leaders, they deprive the masses of their wealth, then invest their loot in the purchase of bullet proof vehicles, mansions in Nigeria and Europe, and then have the guts to vie for political office again by campaigning with stolen funds. What an affront on the senses. To be honest, I have a lot more sympathy for armed robbers in our streets than for these crooks.

I was at an event in Nigeria recently and sat very close to a serving governor, what appalled me was his retinue of security aids , police, navy, airforce etc, This is a man whom I know personally to be a billionaire in dollars with no descernable source of income and nothing to show for it in his state, This would never happen in a civilized society, yet we complain about Ribadu!!

This selfishness, greed and lack of conscience is staggering. Even in it's imperfect form, the EFCC, with Ribadu at it's helm, is doing a sterling job and gets 100% of my support.

Agreed money laundering will always be with us, and exists even in the most developed and regulated economies, including the UK and the US. The fact that they have to do this to conceal trail shows that the battle is having an effect. So your statement supports our argument.

Back in the day, these corrupt despots will move limitless funds with reckless impunity from one Nigerian account to the UK and vice versa.

The fact is that we should have a society where people should account for the source of their funds. One of the reasons we are in the UK (yes I'm here too) is because of the overall benefits of these regulations to the overall quality of life in nations like the UK and the US, otherwise.

So the point is, money laundering will never be eradicated, never. But we've got to do what we can to discourage theft and misappropriation of funds - especially public funds.

Ha ha Haba Jackal, take am easy with me na, abi na so? Na only me one you pack all that abuse give, chei,

Anyway, jokes apart, it's obvious we're equally passionate about our views, abeit on other sides of the argument.

It's not in question that the current anti-curruption drive is not perfect. But it's a welcome beginning, , . I believe that leaders now think twice before they loot, it used to be theft with inpunity. Some leaders I know personally are now having sleepless nights, worrying on how to move their money away from prying eyes of the banks and EFCC, it used to be theft with inpunity, in this case these are people with no issues with OBJ or PDP, they are just greedy kleptomaniacs. This fear in itself is the begining of wisdom and a welcome development for our fledging economy.

@Jackal,

You can live abroad and stilll posses mentality of a village chimp as you have shown . You can take a monkey out of the bush, well you know as the saying goes.

I'm still convinced there is something about the night about you, at best you'll be one of the many sycophantic and opportunistic pro-IBB campainers now rearing their heads in the UK and the US.

High time these dim wits are silenced for good, in the interest of our beloved nation.

I stated earlier, and state again for the records, that Ribadu is God's gift not only to Nigeria but to mankind, , the possible damage he is doing to your livlihood notwitstanding,

It will take an extremely braze man to bring change in any Nigerian sector. Some viewpoint on this thread shows why we are where we are as as a nation, and haven't changed for so long. Besides being extremely resistant to anything that works, we are all victims of manipulation and abuse of an extreme kind.

The alleged selectivity of Ribadu has been over-emphasized. Nigeria is in a state of decay and requires desperate measures to turn around. So whatever measures or criteria is applied by Ribadu is welcome, as long as it is effective in reducing curruption, even by 1%.

This find gentleman has gone after 419'ers, yahoo boys etc, yet I'm baffled by how some minds point to 'political' persecution as it that's all he is about. Without wanting to lay aspersions on those who hold these negative viewpoints on this remarkable man, it's most likely the fraudsters, political jobbers, politicians and general no-gooders in our midst that will hate Ribadu. And that is no surprise.

Ok, so your point being, he deserves neither a Nobel Prize nor Time Man of the Year award. Your view is noted though I'm sure millions of Nigerians will disagree with you.

But what's this business with Bishop's avenue, ? Men, that avenue is fine, and I hear Atiku and IBB have got homes there!!! My honest opinion is lock these two crooks up and throw the keys away forever!

I've just been enlightened on the process for sending nominations to Time International, by January 2007 (Asuming IBB has not 'dealt' with Ribadu by then), this distinguished, honourable and remarkable gengleman will make the cover of time internationsal, let's us keep our fingers crossed.