₦airaland Forum

Calm down guys, let's not get too pendandic on the details of the text, OBJ is making a fair point.

We have way too many merchants in Nigeria, Dangote being one of them. OBJ is only stressing that everyone should do their bit in promoting manufacturing which reduces the run on our foreign reserves and promotes employment. Traders will always be needed, but manufacturing is the catalyst for economic growth.

Aliko Dangote has taken the initiative in the provision of industries and infrastrucre (electricity) and should be commended.

I can't say Good News enough. This is the nail in Atiku's closed coffin.

All the senators that previously sided with him in the misplaced hope that he'll do well in the elections and they'll benefit now know better.

Good news indeed.

One thing I hate is when people just make blatant accusations without having a good understanding of the underlying problem

This is the bane of our people. Those that are not promoting gossip as fact are busy concocting tales in support of their weak arguments.  I don't hold brief for OBJ, but I believe he is one of the most patriotic leaders our country has ever had.

He under-achieved with power sector reforms, but we are now gaining momemtun in the drive to build capacity in that sector. That capacity will come for sure, and in time, perhaps OBJ will be remembered in Nigeria as Lee Kuan Yew is in Singapore, as the architect of our enduring prosperity.

I'm extremely optimistic about our future as a nation. The future is bright. Hate OBJ, but he has certainly achieved more than almost all the past Presidents put together. In fact, I believe that the state governors where/are the weakest link in leadership and the clog in the wheel of our progress.

In spite of the obvious problem with curruption particularly at the governorship level, the Presidency has laid the foundation for sustainable growth and a better tomorrow.

The foundation of the house is the least appreciated and admired, yet the most important structure in any building.

Posterity will surely be kind to OBJ for his contributions,  and vision.

Hmm,  
All this was concluded on Friday night under OBJ's request and demand - check out this website for verification.
http://saharareporters.com/www/report/detail/?id=270

Please don't use the word "verification" and "Saharareporters in one statement else this forum decends to new depths of farce.


The elections was far from perfect, but we have to accept it's the best we can get in the circumstances.

Yar'Adua is the most popular and widely accepted of all the leading candidates. In the interest of peace, stability and prosperity of our nation, Buhari and Atiku (particularly) should drop their impossible ambitions and join hands with the President to take our nation forward.

This is the first of the favourable developments to hit the news sometime after the Presidential elections.


http://www.independentngonline.com/?c=44&a=25046

Details should be published soon. I also heard rumours that dividend payment may not be as far away as the three years projected in the IPO prospectus, as profitability may come a little earlier than envisaged, can't confirm this though.

@windywendy

I believe very strongly that Zenith and First bank would hit N55 within the next 5 months (Zenith sooner).  If your outlook is end of year (December), then I'll add UBA and Oceanic to that list.

If you have read my comment properly, then you'd have noticed that the prediction was of N55 was for Zenith and First bank. And I stand by this, as they near their year end.

And I stand by my view that, on current and projected earnings of Oceanic bank, I see no reason why Oceanic price will not double by December.


I know there are insinuations that withdrawal of gov funds from banks would affect the cashflow / turnover of Oceanic bank in particular, but I'm not convinced this will affect Oceanic any  more than Zenith, UBA or first bank for that matter.

@Frankiri,

Your contribution to this thread has certainly been valuable to most, particularly the newbees,
Must commend you for sharing good, well-informed opinion on this thread.

I believe very strongly that Zenith and First bank would hit N55 within the next 5 months (Zenith sooner). If your outlook is end of year (December), then I'll add UBA and Oceanic to that list.

The recent controversy with share price will not help Transcorp's cause, however, I still hold firm that transcorp will prosper,  there is way too much at stake (and serious players involved) to watch their money go down the drain,

Let's revisit this issue in four months time and compare notes,

No one can say for sure why this has happend, however, Transcorp has much to gain from a higher valuation of the company at this time, so it's unlikely that this devaluation was done deliberately.

The proposed strategic partership (perhaps with Alheri or Mubadala) will be based on specific valuation of the company. If that declines rapidly before the deal is finalized, it could put the entire deal in jeopardy, or place Transcorp at a strategic disadvantage.

I hear the DG of TransCorp was livid when she got back from her trip and discovered how this whole thing had been mis-managed in her absence. Only time will tell where this leads,

In spite of these "setbacks", I remain very positive on the long term viability and prospects of TransCorp.

Sometimes, these extraneous influences are required to correct undesirable political outcomes. The constitution of the pdp is clear, and it is certainly acting within it's powers.

And how are you drawing the conclusion that 3rd term influenced the choice of Agwu? Ararume was a bigger supporter of 3rd term than anyone I know in the senate. He has blindly sided with OBJ in the fallout with Atiku. So what's the point?

It is obvious that OBJ and the pdp are uncomfortable with the security report on Ararume. Watch out. Like I said earlier, he is likely to be a guest of the EFCC come May. He is widly believed to be a violent and unscrupulous operator.

Ugwu, though not a saint, compares much more favourably. Our political system needs to dispense with the likes of Ararume, Nzeribe etc,

The PDP has shown real character, and by this action, demonstrated they are not a desperate party afterall. Ararume would certainly have won the elections for the pdp, and he has always been amongst the staunchest supporters of OBJ in the senate (perhaps second only to the likes of Mantu).

That OBJ has considered his thuggish 'qualities' as a baggage is a positive development. I also suspect that the security report on Ararume was unfavourable to say the least. He may very well have a case to answer with the EFCC after his tenure.

When I was told by a senior member of TransCorp @ one of the Roadshows that "Thisday" seemed to have a vested interest in seeing TransCorp fail, that they were the first to report dubious and unsavoury stories on TransCorp,  he may not have been far from the Truth. If indeed the story carried by Thisday turns out to be false, one can't help but wonder who's interests are being served by these sensationalist, unverified and unsubstantiated reporting,

Only time will tell.

Ribadu's tenure may not be extended. I think he may be destined for higher office after the elections - Did I hear a rumour of IG of police in a Yar'Adua goverment?. However at the very least, I see no reason why he won't continue as EFCC chairman.

A key factor with Obajana is the entry point. As it's easy to compare the price with other companies in the sector, I Dangote is likely to introduce Obajana at a major discount and given the performance of DSR post IPO and the Dangote brand, this is bound to set the Obajana IPO on fire.

Fortunately, I got allotted 100,000 units of DSR and had 500K returned. I intend to apply for approx 300,000 units of Oceanic, but have serious concerns that this again will be seriously over-subscribed. I've been trying for days to buy 100,000 units from the secondary market, but can't even buy 100 as Oceanic is currently on very high bid.

@tundysho, what makes you think there will be full allottement to everyone,  I'm not too sure about Oceanic, it's a truely popular offer, although the shareholders association recently mandated the board to absorbed all oversubscription, I doubt it'll happen. This is one offer (somewhat similar to DSR) that I'll subscribe to as much as i possibly can.

I'll be surprised if the IPO price has been determined yet. It may be listed first, before the IPO launched, meaning that IPO price is impossible to confirm as yet.

You may find it difficult to sell your TransCorp shares now as there is an oversupply. But I'm confident that Transcorp will fare very well, that is not in doubt. There are some steps being taken  now to see to that this happens. Just hold on to your shares until after the election and beyond, and you'll have a lot to smile about.

Buying Oceanic in the secondary market is not a bad idea, as long as the technical suspension is lifted soon after the the close of the IPO, allowing the stock to move. With Oceanic the price is likely to rise very quickly given their solid fundamentals and earnings/dividend projections. Also, it will likely be oversubscribed by more than 100%, which should help push up prices. FCMB is also a good buy, see no reason why it will not trade for N14 @ their end of year.

The case with Transcorp is different. The drop in price after the IPO was due to heavy trading by those who participated in the Private Placement. Many bought into the offer due to the promise of dividends from the first year, and chose to offload some equity rather than tie down funds for three years with no promise of dividend when the IPO info revealed otherwise. But Transcorp may be planning a share buy-back to help stabilize / increase the share price in the short term.

I know a few people who have done this and made good. My only concern is that you've taken a loan over a six month period, and you have too much to loose if it goes wrong.

Taking a loan is one thing, but leveraging assets that isn't yours put's you under enormores and unnecessary pressure, trading in market you have little control over.

However,  I believe you could still make good. Choose 2/3 solid solid blue chip stocks like Oceanic, Zenith and another grouth stock like FCMB.

Good luck.

6 months seem an agressive timeline and the rates could be better, given that it's spread over 6 months only.

However, I would consider the following three stocks -

FCMB - Undervalued, and should shortly trade @ N12 and more
Diamond - Currently trading below intrinsic value. Also end of year is near. I believe it'll
                 be trading at N15  by end of April
Oceanic - IPO likely to be oversubscribed by more than 100%. This, in addition to
               the positive perception, track-record and profitability should fuel capital growth.
               I believe Oceanic will trade at N30 in 6 months, though I believe growth will be
               more pronounced nearer yea end (December). You could buy from the
               secondary market and still do well.


Maybe's - Intercontinental, Zenith (Bonus shares rumoured), GTB (Bonus shares rumoured)

I don't know much about the non-banking sector, but Guiness would seem a good bet had one year been your timeframe.

I would recommend you spread your investment, and therefore risk by choosing three or more stocks.

With TransCorp, the script is already written. TransCorp made a promise - short and long term, and there are big personalities here with reputations to protect / enhance.


I'm even more convinced following my conversation with a certain top executive of TransCorp during the recent TransCorp roadshow in London, coupled with the tenacity of the founding members particularly the  bank executives amongst them (and therefore heads of major investment houses/funds), this investment is destined to flourish.

In the short term, be rest assured that TransCorp shares will value at a min N15 p/s by EOY December 07.

In the long term, TransCorp is simply a  gold mine.

BTW, check out this report

http://www.proshareng.com/assets/user/pdf/report_transcorp_290107.pdf

@Frankiriri,

can justifiably revoke some of the concessions already granted

This comment is so common that it risks being over-emphasized. For starters, can someone please list out the REAL concessions TransCorp have received (not  perceptions or politically motivated soundbites).

What concessions did TransCorp get that Mudabala did not? What about the sale of Abuja Sheraton, Eleme Petrochemicals, PAN, Nicon Insurance and the numerous oil blocks sold to foreign and shadowy Nigerian entities. TransCorp narrowly lost the bid for the goverment owned Clearing and forwarding agency, but no negative comment on the eventual winning bid. It seems that as long as the real identities behind the winning bid is shrouded in secrecy, it's ok. I haven't heard anyone complain of these 'national treasures' being given away.

The full cost of Nitel to TransCorp came to approx $1.5 Billion. I wonder how many foreign or local companies would have paid that much for a moribund company. This certainly is no giveaway.


We should all be enlighteened enough to seperate facts from fiction. The Privatization process is long overdue and certainly should be transparent and above board, but if we are to progress as a nation, we must not allow sentiments and politically motivated vendetta of our elites impair our judgement.

That will be akin to throwing the baby away with the bath water!

ok, here -

Oceanic Bank - Relatively low PE ratio, high EPS, good cashflow, extremely sound management, extremely good market perception (locally and internationally), appointment of Apostle Alile seen as a major boost to investor confidence as the overwhelming 'Ibru' footprint reduced.

Finally and very signifficant, high on the list of big money - institutional investors. My prediction is
this will be N25 minimum by December.

Right now the following 3 shares are a must buy, confident of a minimum 100% ROI by end of O7 -


1) Oceanic bank
2) Diamond Bank
3) UBA.


The others to watch out for are - Ashaka, Guinness, Intercontinental, Zenith bank, Wapco

I don't know much about the brewery sector, but I believe Guiness is a safe bet.

I'll provide details of the factors that'll drive these on subsequent posts.

So much ignorance in the air, so much pessimism, too much vindictiveness.

It's sad that a company like TransCorp has become a political tool in the hands of envious and vindictive manipulators. What is wrong with Nigerians owning TransCorp? What is wrong with a Nigerian company buying Nitel? I see Atiku's name mentioned, as if rejecting 100 million shares makes him clean.

The truth remains that had a ~Chinese company bought Nitel for $100 million, it won't generate half as much controversy. Or if Obasanjo had used a front that could never be traced back to him and invest in Nitel (Like Atiku and IBB have done massively with GlobalCom), this would not have been an issue. What is 200 million naira worth of shares in a multi-billion naira investment? This is the kind of money that even local goverment chairmen steal yearly to fund their lavish lifestyles. Those who cannot see propaganda written all over this are as blind as a bat!!


There are massive crimes against humanity being commited daily in Nigeria by our leaders, yet TransCorp with it's noble aspirations have sudenly become the issue in a political year.

I truely feel sorry for our nation, especially those who are so mentally impaired as to buy into this tackless propaganda.

If I remember correctly, the private placement was extended by many weeks and ended up being oversubscribed by over 300%. Zenith bank have had theirs extended in the past too, as well as other companies, so don't draw your conclusions just yet.

Transcorp aims to expand / extend ownership to as many Nigerians as possible. This is strategic.

This , in addition to need for working capital for the execution of projects is the reason the IPO is this big. Apparently the biggest in history.

I'm convinced that TransCorp will be the surprise investment of the year. But that's just me and my instincts that have served me remarkably well in the past. However, I believe we've elaborated on this company enough. Those concerned that TransCorp posses to much of a risk at this stage in it's existence, PLEASE DO NOT invest, not just yet anyway

@Iyke-D,

We both know TransCorp is great value at N7.50 and I'm convinced it'll hit N15 (@ least) by EOY 07. I'm also convinced the IPO'll be over-subscribed.

But for the doubters out there, please don't vest borrowed funds into TransCorp IPO, wait and join the rush later on when the 'Fundamentals' are there for 'ALL' to see and the risks significantly reduced.

Besides, we'll need this rush to push the price further up north and maybe make multi-millionaires of today's investors.

Thank you.

There are no guarantees, but it's probarbly worth the risk as long as you don't take too much of a gamble.

There are a few relatively  solid bets in the capital market, with fundamentals that make it relatively easy to predict future prospects. For example, the following companies have good fundamentals and are likely deliver minimum 40% ROI by EOY 07 (political and other associated risks not considered).


First bank
Oceanic
UBA
Intercontinental
Zenith Bank


But be advised that any investment carries an element of risk.

I have to say some of these comments are a little amusing and betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of the stock market.

This principle applies to stock markets around the world and not just transcorp or the NSE.  Who is buying Nestle today, as it's valued over N200. Who is buying ETI. The truth is that there are markets beyond the shores of Nigeria and institutional investors that will find the track records of these companies appealing. The current bull in the Nigerian capital market (and most emerging economies like China, Venezuela etc) is fueled by foreign inflow of investment fund. Are you aware that the 30% growth of the Chinese market last year was directly attributable to foreign investment? Many people become extremely wealthy in fast growing markets like Nigeria, whilst some get burnt if they end up at the tail end of the spin.

There is however a real risk of a crash or 'sudden correction'  in a market that is over-valued, and this is a common concern in  Nigerian investment circles. With interest rates set to drop significantly and inflow of pension funds into the market set to continue, there is likely to be a continued northward movement of the All Share Index until other capital market instruments like options, derivatives etc are introduced.

TransCorp isn't for everyone. I dare state that I expect 90% of the general population not to invest in a company like TransCorp. This is a company that can make multi-millionaires of those that dare. But it may also go the other way. So do your homework and only take on risks you're comfortable with. However, for those who care to listen, my advice is to buy into TransCorp today or we'll be back here in December argueing whether N15 is a fair price!

I would rather put my money in TransCorp.

This is the main reason why we should support our own. MTN is a market leader and is doing exceptionally well, especially in Nigeria. So is GlobalCom and soon Celtel. Mtel is far behind, but will soon gain some market share.

Even if TransCorp (Mtel) shares markets for $1 (an insignificant fraction of MTN's current price), it'll still represent significant value.

For those that care for exponential capital growth, don't pass on opportunities that present themselves simply due to temporary public sentiments. This is the type of investments that make millionaires out of a select few.